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May 24, 2022 - Lionel Nation
22:56
Nothing Makes Sense: It’s All Zebra Hooves and They’re Getting Louder
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One of the surefire ways to kill anybody's interest in any video presentation is to use words like epistemology and philology and overly complicating what really shouldn't be overly complicated, but it is complicated.
And that's the notion of how do we know what we know.
How do we base our political opinions on facts and circumstances when oftentimes, with all due respect, most of us have no idea of what we're seeing?
We're motivated by anger and conviction and this commitment to some theory or political idea without really understanding anything of the underlying basis for that.
And what's even worse for people?
It's changing their minds.
Or as I like to say, as Keynes said, when the situation changes, you change your opinion.
And in this really weird, ever-changing, protean world that we live in, you're going to be changing your opinion a lot.
Because the facts are changing constantly.
I'm going to get into this, and I think you will find this interesting, I trust.
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In the 1940s, there was a physician, Theodore Woodward, at the University of Maryland, who said something that people remember doctors always talk about.
I've heard friends of mine who are physicians always refer to this, and it's their mantra.
And it is, when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.
And the idea is...
And I don't want to bring in this Occam's Razor thing, because people love to say Occam's Razor when in fact they don't really understand it.
But the idea is that don't necessarily go for the most arcane and, you know, what am I trying to say?
The most exquisitely complicated version of something.
By the way, I happened to come across an article on neurogenetics.
I know, it was a slow day.
And the author of that said, In neurogenetics, think zebras, not horses.
Sometimes you've got to be pretty wild and imaginative in your diagnoses.
Any of it.
Right now, you are an enlightened person.
You obviously are being pulled by the news.
And this, by the way, my greatest, well, my favorite, My favorite little device.
I got this at the Dollar Tree.
Have you been to the Dollar Tree?
This is not an ad, by the way.
Dollar General or Dollar whatever.
These little stores cost a buck.
Maybe a buck fifty.
In any event, I picked this one up.
And I love this.
Because I swear to you, unless and until you look at the globe and you understand this, Just this.
And we're over here.
The world's over there.
The rest of the world.
Just this and this.
Looking at the geography.
Looking at where things are.
You understand so much.
The difficulty of war.
Difficulty of invasion.
The landlocked problems that are attendant thereto.
In any event.
When you're trying to figure this out, as a good citizen, which is what you are, you do your best to figure out, how do I make sense of this?
How do I make sense of this?
What is it that I have to do?
How do I, as a citizen, work through this accordingly?
What do I do?
What do I have to say?
Well, it's a good point.
There was an article.
And I handle this, I do this, I address this on my Lionel Media subscription service.
A little bit more in-depth, a little bit more caustic, a little bit more direct, a little bit more mean, a little bit more intellectually obscene because I go right for the truth nudity.
You know, I want the truth.
I don't want there to be some strip tease.
I don't want some burlesque.
I don't want some, you know, Fanny Fox coming out and toying with us.
I'm Bell Star.
Who are those great?
Blaze Star.
Remember those great stripper names?
So quaint compared to now.
But I want the truth.
Just take off the...
Just show me the truth.
Don't tease me.
Just show me the truth.
But for purposes of this, Henry Kissinger, Reported, as I discussed, from Davos that maybe it might be a good idea for Ukraine to consider some type of either ceasefire.
Maybe the West should reconsider its approach.
Maybe the circumstances involving this, it might be better.
For a variety of reasons, up to and including the fact that Russia and China would be forced into a coalition, which may prove problematic.
Anyway, it goes through a variety of reasons.
Now, when I read that, I thought, let's think about this.
And you're not going to hear this on any cable.
Or any kind of...
I shouldn't say this.
Maybe on some digital platform.
Perhaps.
Perhaps.
But you're not going to hear somebody say what I'm saying.
And that is, first, let's look at the source of this.
Henry Kissinger.
The first rule of cross-examination in trial law, which I'm a trial lawyer, Is don't.
I've never understood cross-examination.
For the most part.
Unless this person is going to help you.
Unless this person is going to break down.
Unless this person is going to say, I'm making it up!
I'm lying!
Or unless this person is going to recognize the fact that maybe they don't know what they're talking about.
Unless that's going to happen, don't put this person on the stand.
Get them off.
But if you do, do it.
If you do find yourself in the position of saying, okay, let me cross-examine.
The first rule is motivation.
Bias.
Why are you testifying?
Why?
You're the defendant?
You're interested in...
You're building burned down, didn't it?
Yes.
And you put how much money in...
In insurance?
You don't think there's an interest?
You don't think there's a bias?
You are the person who was basically trying to court the defendant's wife, so it's in your best interest to see that he goes to prison.
So all of these little motivations are critical for the jury, the trial of fact, and the jury trial, the judge and the non-jury trial, to weigh the particular evidence based upon their bias.
Don't give this guy so much credit.
Give this guy a lot of credit.
So when Henry Kissinger, as I discuss, says maybe this particular means, this particular direction, this particular way of looking at the Russo-Ukrainian military operation isn't a good idea, that means something!
It's Henry Kissinger!
This is not a wallflower.
This is not some pacifist.
This is not somebody who...
At any time during the course of human events or whatever, did anyone, did he ever, ever show the slightest disinclination to speak his mind regarding war?
This is Henry Kissinger and he's saying, now wait a minute, then you've got to say, but wait a minute, maybe Kissinger's gone.
Why is he saying that?
I don't know.
Okay.
The next point.
When you want to evaluate something, you have to remove yourself from the crowd.
You cannot make political decisions If you don't want to turn to your CNN friends or your Fox friends or whoever friends and say, I think I'm going to be breaking from the pack.
I don't think this is a good idea.
I'm kind of going the other way.
What?
People are like that.
But you've committed yourself to either war, anti-war, taxes, no tax, whatever the particular thing is.
You've committed yourself to it.
You can't change.
You're a quizzling.
You're a turncoat.
You can't do that.
What are you doing?
What are you possibly seeking to gain from this to change your mind in midstream?
Good God, why?
You can't be committed to something because people are counting on you to maintain that commitment.
And when you change your mind, in this world of critical thinking, which is what I'm trying to explain, in the world of critical thinking, sometimes the facts change.
Don't you want a doctor who says, you know what, I was thinking this was a bacterial infection.
Uh-uh.
It's viral.
I'm going to change my course of treatment.
Well, thank you!
As opposed to, well, I'm going to change my mind.
I don't want to seem inconsistent.
What are you talking about?
This is something right now which is, I hate to use the word realpolitik, but the reality.
Mearsheimer talks about realism.
Realism.
What is this about?
Ask yourself, where is our...
Look at this.
This is Russia.
Whenever you see this, this is Russia and this is Ukraine.
Get one of these globes, they're fantastic.
What does this have to do with us?
What does it have to do with us?
That's a very interesting question.
You should always ask, what does this have to do with me?
What does this have to do with me?
Does it affect me?
And the reason why, by the way, that's important is not because you don't have an opinion or you don't think it's important, but first, if something doesn't affect you, why do you want to be involved in it?
Why do you want to be so enmeshed in this particular issue?
That's number one.
Number two, What's the history?
What's the history of these people?
What are we talking about?
Who are they?
How do they get along?
If I took you to a Yankees-Red Sox game, and you had to ask yourself, or if I try to explain, you don't understand.
Or whether it's Arsenal and Man U, I don't know.
Football.
Soccer.
But I'd have to tell you, let me explain the history of this.
You've got to understand the history.
And we in this country, for better or worse, no, strike that.
For worse, we don't believe in teaching history.
Real, palpable, interesting history.
We don't do this.
We don't explain it.
We don't...
I don't know what the word is.
Give me an example.
And I've given this a million times.
If you go to somebody's house for Christmas, let's say you're invited to Christmas or Thanksgiving dinner.
Maybe you're courting someone.
Maybe you were in their dating years.
Maybe you're going to her family for the first time.
And you walk in and there's all these people.
You've never, you don't know who they are.
And your girlfriend, boyfriend, whatever, says, you know, listen.
Don't you understand something?
See that?
That's my Uncle Dave.
Now, Uncle Dave is a great guy, but his wife, Maxine, is out of her mind.
And she doesn't get along with cousin Phoebe over here because she thinks that Phoebe was actually making eyes.
And Uncle Joe, Joe's going to get drunk.
He always gets drunk.
And we've got to keep the booze away from him.
You've got to make sure Joe gets drunk.
And when he gets drunk, Phoebe gets drunk.
And you've got to explain this.
And you're walking into a good generation and years of layered conflict and hate and enmity and backstories and slights and anger and you're supposed to figure out how this thing works?
Like that?
No.
But if you don't understand, if you don't understand, And you were to ask Uncle Dave a question with this and Maxine and have them turn to each other, you might be starting World War III, and in this particular case, we use that expression a lot because I don't think we really understand what World War III means, which is another discussion.
But when you're going into this, you've got to understand something.
So Americans don't understand the fact that when you have parts of...
Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Europe, dissolved Soviet Union, border states, NATO expansion, Mearsheimer, Kennan, Victoria Nuland, the UN, the EU, how this works.
All of these histories.
The Soviet Union versus Russia.
What's our interest?
Davos, G7, World Economic Forum.
Who are these people?
Who is Klaus Schwab?
Why do you keep saying Klaus Schwab?
What is he?
Is he elected or anything?
The EU Brexit.
Do you ever hear American news people talk about Brexit?
Couldn't?
They still don't get it.
What does this mean?
World Economic Forum, World Health Organization, UN.
Isn't that good?
Don't we want?
You keep saying globalism is a bad thing.
What's going on with that?
Why do you speak of it so derisively?
Don't we want there to be global harmony?
Don't we want global cooperation?
Don't we want this?
Well, in the course of this, not introduction, what am I trying to say, but in the course of what I've told you so far, I've given you about 200 different questions that should be applied to everything.
Who, what, when, where, why?
Backstory, history.
What's going on now?
How does it affect me?
Is it any of my business?
Is it any of my business?
One of the greatest concepts that even kids know, that's none of your business.
Hey, that's none of your business.
You know...
Global politics is something which is really weird.
And the reason why it's weird, let me tell you, is that sometimes it is motivated and it is affected by things like lecturing, hectoring, providing disrepute, but disrespect.
Mohammed bin Salman Was saying repeatedly, and you've read about this, one of the problems he had with the current administration is that they were bringing up the fact of the Khashoggi murder over and over again, repeatedly.
And he kept saying, who are you to lecture me?
This is one of those things where he said, how dare you?
You're lecturing me?
Now, let me stop right now.
Let's throw into the mix.
This fascinating aspect, this new consideration of cultural differences, masculinity, manhood, the monarchy, the royal family versus the elected, and views of American hubris versus this.
Oh my God!
You're talking about something that is so incredibly complicated that by its very nature, it's beyond...
How do I say this without being, you know, rude, but it's beyond the comprehension of so many people, especially people on TV who are given a one-minute, minute-and-a-half segment, and what they're trying to do is to say whatever they can as cutely and as pointedly and as piquantly as possible to develop their real So
that they'll be asked back again, so that they will be in the position of perpetuating their status, their role, their worth as commentator.
So, now, what's the truth?
How do you figure the truth out?
Taking in mind respect, history, culture, philology, The way the language and the way we express things, historicity, epistemology.
How do we know what we know?
How do we know this?
How do we know any of this?
What's worse?
Telling somebody a lie?
Or not telling somebody the truth?
Or not telling somebody anything?
I always look at that as removing a stop sign.
Removing a stop sign can kill more people because you've removed this indicator of harm.
And when I don't say something, when I don't tell my viewers or my audience, listen, what I said last week, it's not true anymore, or we were wrong, or somebody says something and you don't correct it or whatever.
It's not misinformation.
It's not disinformation.
And it's certainly, in my opinion, not worthy of either some governmental or proxy governmental unit telling you you can't say this.
Now, how do I want you to feel right now?
Confused.
Confused?
Incredulous?
Not sure about anything?
Wondering, hmm, every time you hear somebody say anything about anything, I mean, within reason.
If you're going through a drive-thru Wendy's, I don't want you to be confused about the epistemological references of Frosty.
But, really, before you say, I believe something, really know what you're talking about.
And that involves a lot of thinking and a lot of analysis.
I thank you.
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