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Feb. 11, 2021 - The Joe Rogan Experience
03:24:23
Joe Rogan Experience #1609 - Elon Musk
Participants
Main voices
e
elon musk
02:14:07
j
joe rogan
57:08
Appearances
Clips
a
aaron rodgers
00:04
j
jamie vernon
00:03
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Speaker Time Text
unidentified
The Joe Rogan Experience.
Train by day, Joe Rogan Podcast by night, all day.
No, that's the Sacha Baron Cohen movie.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
I never saw that one.
elon musk
Well, there's a scene where he's...
They show him the new missile they've developed, but it has kind of a round head.
And he says, you need to make it more pointy to his engineers.
And actually, that's why I also say the same thing.
You know, Starship, we need to make it more pointy.
joe rogan
Did you say that?
Because of the movie?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Hold on.
unidentified
Hold on.
joe rogan
I just have that main camera on.
Okay.
Okay.
You literally told them to make the starship more pointy because of the movie The Dictator.
elon musk
Yep.
And they know it too.
It's not like they're unaware of it.
Everyone thought it would be funny if we made the rocket more pointy, so we did.
joe rogan
Did it have any effect on the aerodynamics?
elon musk
No.
joe rogan
Nothing?
elon musk
No, we can make it way blunter and be fine.
joe rogan
But is it better to be pointier?
If it wasn't for the movie...
elon musk
It's arguably slightly worse.
joe rogan
But more fun for you.
elon musk
Yeah, it looks cooler.
unidentified
Well, okay.
joe rogan
It does look cool.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
How long do you think it'll be before...
Are you good, Jamie?
What's that?
elon musk
My head's maybe...
Yeah, exactly.
You good?
joe rogan
How long...
elon musk
My head is sticking out...
Is that where it's...
unidentified
It's right on the edge of the top.
elon musk
Oh, is that supposed to be?
Okay.
joe rogan
You're good.
elon musk
All right.
joe rogan
How long do you think it's going to be before you have like regular flights with that where you can take off and land and like an airplane where it'll be very consistent?
elon musk
With our extra pointy rocket?
joe rogan
Yeah, with your extra pointy rocket.
elon musk
Do you mean Earth to Earth transport?
Just any kind of.
joe rogan
Any time where you could just do it with people and have it land.
All the time.
elon musk
I think we're probably two years away.
joe rogan
Two years away.
That's really nice.
Two years is pretty cool.
elon musk
Two years for people.
We'll have a lot of flights between now and then.
joe rogan
That's crazy.
2023 is not that far away.
That'll be there before you know it.
elon musk
Yeah.
unidentified
Wow.
elon musk
2023. Time flies.
joe rogan
How many times have you had explosions with those things?
elon musk
When you're on a rocket.
I don't know, like quite a few.
Six, maybe?
Five or six?
joe rogan
What are those like?
What is it like when you watch it explode?
When it's supposed to land and it just...
elon musk
This is a test program.
We expect it to explode.
It's weird if it doesn't explode, frankly.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
Because we're trying to develop advanced rockets at a high speed.
And if you want to get payload to orbit, you have to run things close to the edge.
And the whole rocket is evolving.
The engines, the structure, avionics, the software, the ground systems are all evolving simultaneously.
And the whole production system, which is actually harder than the rocket design by far.
So the rocket and engine and avionics production system and the launch system is...
A thousand percent harder than the initial design.
Like at least.
joe rogan
Really?
Yeah.
elon musk
Same with cars.
It's like 10,000 percent.
It's easy to do a car prototype.
It's hard to do production.
joe rogan
So when you're looking and you're scaling towards the future and you're looking at mistakes or corrections, improvements, and all these different things, that's how you come up with this figure of approximately two years.
elon musk
If current trends continue, if you plot the points on the curve of progress, then we should be doing regular orbital flights with a high probability of safe landing in two years.
We're getting to orbit this year.
Our goal is to get to orbit this year.
I'm not sure if people totally understand.
Starship is the largest flying object ever made.
This thing will be over 5,000 tons of weight on liftoff.
It's going to go straight up with 5,000 tons.
This is much heavier than any aircraft by far.
No aircraft even comes close to this weight.
And it's going straight up.
Aircraft can't go straight up.
It will have more than twice the thrust of a Saturn V. Really?
Yeah, it's like a big rocket.
joe rogan
Why does it need that much thrust?
Because you want to go to Mars?
elon musk
We're trying to make life multi-planetary.
Extend life beyond Earth.
And in order to do that, you have to have high tonnage to Mars.
And that means you need a big rocket and you've got to fly a lot.
joe rogan
So the reason why it has twice the thrust of the Saturn V is to plan for these interstellar trips.
elon musk
Interplanetary.
joe rogan
Interplanetary trips.
So when you're doing this and you're developing these systems thinking about regular trips to other planets, but you're not just trying to get into orbit right now.
You're trying to get into orbit with something that eventually could scale up.
elon musk
Yeah, we know how to get to orbit.
We've done that a lot.
So the really hard thing is we need to have a fully and rapidly reusable rocket where all elements of the rocket are reused and they're reused quickly, like an aircraft.
And this has never been done.
This is the holy grail of rocketry, is to have a fully reusable rocket.
Then you need to go one step further.
It needs to be fully and rapidly reusable.
You know, it's like...
joe rogan
Like a plane.
elon musk
Yeah, yeah.
Like playing lands, you refuel it and take off a game.
joe rogan
How do you have time?
I never understand you in regards to the way you run multiple businesses simultaneously.
I would think that something like this would require so much concentration.
I would think this would be your whole being, trying to figure out how to work this.
elon musk
Yeah.
Yeah, well, I do work a lot.
joe rogan
It's crazy!
elon musk
Yeah, and the reason I was late is I was literally coming from some critical meetings.
Normally, I'd be meeting until I work until like 1 or 2 in the morning.
joe rogan
Every night?
elon musk
I mean, Saturday and Sunday, usually not, but sometimes.
joe rogan
How much do you sleep?
elon musk
About 6 hours.
joe rogan
That's pretty good.
elon musk
Yeah, not that crazy.
joe rogan
For you, that's...
I mean, for someone who does as much as you, that's actually...
That's impressive that you can squeeze that in.
elon musk
Yeah.
I've tried sleeping less, but then total productivity decreases.
joe rogan
Yeah.
So you feel like six is the number where it's...
elon musk
Yeah, six or six is...
I don't find myself wanting more sleep than six.
joe rogan
So when, like, with the Saturn V and the space shuttles and all these other rockets, they would have these parts that would get the ship up into space, but they would descend down to Earth and crash into the ocean and they would never use them again.
elon musk
That's right.
joe rogan
How do you avoid that?
Like, what is the difference between the way these things are structured?
Like, the whole thing goes together?
And then it lands together?
elon musk
Well, we're on the wrong planet for a single stage to orbit.
Right.
I think one thing to appreciate is getting to space is easy.
Getting to orbit is hard.
So you only need maybe 1% or 2% of the energy to get to space, to where the atmosphere is thin, compared to what you need to get to orbit.
And if you get to orbit, now you've got to burn off all that energy, and you're coming in like a meteor.
So you need a powerful heat shield.
So it's like...
Super difficult to get to orbit at all.
And then if you get to orbit at all, then making those stages reusable means they've got to come back intact.
And then the upper stage is especially difficult because it's got so much energy.
All the energy you put into it, you have to take out.
You're literally coming in like a flaming meteor.
And most things would just melt or vaporize.
Like if you as a human tried to come in from orbit, you'd just be pink mist.
joe rogan
Yeah.
That's a funny way to put it.
Now, the space shuttle, they had tiles, right?
unidentified
That was the way they avoided the heat.
joe rogan
They had these heat shield tiles.
What do you use with the SpaceX rockets?
elon musk
Yeah, we have a more advanced version of the shuttle tile, but you've got to use some kind of ceramic, essentially.
It's usually some form of silicon oxide, aluminum oxide, some carbon perhaps thrown in there.
joe rogan
And is it like a one-piece?
Or is it in tiles?
elon musk
It's in tiles.
Yeah, hexagonal tiles.
You can see with each Starship, we've actually increased the size of the heat shield.
So it's tough because the tiles are...
They're kind of like dinner plates.
They're brittle, and their coefficient of thermal expansion is different from metal, so metal will expand and contract differently from the tiles.
And the tiles also get super hot, while metal can be super cold, because it's got cryogenic fluid behind it.
You've got this differential expansion and contraction, which makes the gaps in the tiles expand and contract.
But if the gaps get too big, then you get kind of the hot gas, sort of the plasma gets in down, down, get plasma in the crack, and it's not as bad.
And then you're going to melt the metal behind it.
But if they're too close, then they bang together and they crack.
So you've got to get it just right, where the gap's just right, and then they can, the way that they're attached to the body, they can move around a little bit.
joe rogan
So there has to be some sort of room to move.
It can't be one large piece of ceramic that you fit over the front.
elon musk
Yeah, you can't really make such a giant piece of ceramic, because you've got to, well, I guess you'd have like a super gigantic oven.
Yeah.
But you really need expansion joints, expansion contraction joints.
So it would be quite difficult to do a single piece tile.
Think of it like tiles for a roof or something like that.
Why don't we just make one tile for a roof?
It's like, yeah, it doesn't work.
unidentified
Right.
joe rogan
Now, these things have multiple stages.
How many stages in the rocket boosters?
When things are taking off, how many?
elon musk
Starship has two stages.
That's the minimum number that you could do on a planet like Earth.
Earth's gravity is quite strong.
And we have a thick atmosphere and strong gravity.
Whereas if you took off from Mars, it's relatively easy.
Mars is around just under 40% of Earth's gravity.
The Moon is about a sixth.
And getting to lunar orbit from the surface of the Moon is easy.
During Apollo, the lunar lander Just the top half of the lunar lander was able to take off and get to lunar orbit.
But to get to Earth orbit, you need the giant rocket.
It's very non-linear.
joe rogan
So what happens to the first, when you take off and it separates into stages, how does the first stage get reused?
elon musk
Well, have you seen how the Falcon 9 stages work, where they come back and land?
joe rogan
No.
elon musk
You haven't seen that?
joe rogan
No.
unidentified
Wow.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean...
joe rogan
Jamie's going to pull it up.
So does it come down with parachutes?
How does it land?
elon musk
No, it lands propulsively with the thrusters, with the engines.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So it's designed to take off...
Here it is.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
Oh, wow.
So that is the bottom of the rocket that launches it straight up and then afterwards it comes down and lands like that.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
That's amazing.
And then the top piece can then land separately.
elon musk
Yes.
Well, in the case of Falcon 9, the upper stage burns up on re-entry.
Falcon 9 has the fairing where the satellites are contained in the top, and once it gets to space where the atmosphere is thin, it's still a long way from orbit.
But it's in space, so you no longer need, the satellite doesn't need to be protected by the nose cone, the fairing.
And so that, it sort of splits in two and falls away.
And then, so with Falcon 9, we recover the fairing halves and we recover the booster, but we lose the upper stage.
joe rogan
On purpose?
Did you design it that way?
elon musk
Yes, but it's not really possible with Falcon 9. If we made the alpha stage reusable, our payload to orbit would be dramatically less.
In order to have meaningful payload to orbit, scale is important.
You need to make things big.
there is value to scale.
You know, for the family, like for a truck, you wouldn't want like everything delivered by a small pickup truck.
You want semi-trailers.
You don't see...
You don't see ships in the ocean, cargo ships, coming along with one sea van with an outboard motor.
It's like a giant ship.
So scale has value in and of itself.
Like the same computer that controls the big rocket controls the tiny rocket.
So even just in terms of the computer, the electronics weight becomes vanishingly small in a big rocket, but it is significant in a small rocket.
joe rogan
Do you think there'll ever be a time where there's an alternative source of propulsion outside of a burning fuel?
Like, is it possible that someone would develop a nuclear propulsion or some other method other than just burning large amounts of gasoline or rocket fuel?
elon musk
There's no way around Newton's third law, really.
So...
You basically have to expel mass.
For a car, you can push against the ground.
For an aircraft, you can react against the air.
For a boat, you can react against water.
In vacuum, there is nothing.
So the only way to move is to react against yourself, to essentially shoot out gas at very high velocity and to transfer momentum from, you know, to that gas that is going that way very rapidly.
So you want to accelerate a small amount of mass very fast in order to have you, the large amount of mass, accelerate slowly.
Momentum is conserved.
So, yeah.
joe rogan
So we're stuck with gas.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Until some insane breakthrough dealing with gravity or something.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, it's not going to happen.
joe rogan
Not in our lifetime?
elon musk
Not in our lifetime.
No.
Yeah.
So...
So ironically, everything will go electric except for rockets.
Now, you can make rockets indirectly electric by using electricity to create the fuel.
So you can take CO2 and H2O and create methane and oxygen from that.
So methane is CH4 and oxygen is O2. And for example, on Mars, which is a primarily CO2 atmosphere, and there's a lot of water ice, is you can mine the ice, take the ice, And the CO2 from the atmosphere.
I'm simplifying this a lot, but run it over a catalyst and give it a lot of energy and you can get CH4 and O2 and you can graciously get your propellant on Mars.
The rocket, by the way, is mostly oxygen.
So for Starship, we're almost 80% oxygen.
It's only just over 20% fuel.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So, is this as efficient as you anticipate it being, you know, any time in our lifetime?
The trip to Mars is like, what, six months?
Is that what the idea is?
elon musk
Yeah, it's about six months.
joe rogan
Do you ever anticipate it being quicker than that?
Is it possible to make these things faster?
Would you have to have solar sails?
elon musk
No, solar sail would be very slow.
Would it be?
I'm trying to think of the way to think about gravity here.
was live analogies.
But you know, like, you can think like, like space itself is is curved, like it's like a funnel.
Like, if there's something that has a lot of mass, it's creating like a funnel.
So, in the same way, if you have a coin funnel, the coin thinks it's going in a straight line, pretty much.
The physicists out there might quibble with my analogies.
But anyway, I'm trying to convey what gravity is like, like a funnel.
If you want to get out of that gravity well, you actually need to go very fast parallel to the Earth's surface.
The faster you go parallel to the Earth's surface, the further out you spin.
Or you can think of a marble in a funnel.
If you want to get that marble to go far out, you just spin it sideways and it'll spiral out.
Conversely, if you Just due to the friction of the air friction and the rolling friction, it will slow down a little bit if you don't give it any push, and it will slowly spiral in.
As it gets closer, it spins faster and faster.
This is how gravity basically works.
So all the things in the solar system are spinning around this gigantic funnel in space time called the sun.
And we're like these tiny little dust motes going around the Sun.
And the further you are away from the Sun, the slower you move around in terms of degrees per second.
So like the orbit of Mars, which is further away from the Sun, is about two years.
And Earth's one year.
Because Mars is about 50% further away from the Earth, from the Sun than the Earth is.
So it's like Mars, we're, Earth is at one astronomical unit, Mars is like one and a half-ish.
Astronomical units.
So we're about eight light minutes away from the Sun, Mars is about 12. And Yeah, so when you want to go to Mars, you basically accelerate along the same path of Earth going around the Sun.
And you time it such that your acceleration gives you an elliptical orbit around the Sun where the tip of the ellipse intersects with Mars.
So Mars is going around, and you just time it to coincide with the tip of your ellipse being Mars.
And that turns out to be about a six-month journey.
Now, you can speed that up.
I think, I mean, I could sort of see a way to make it happen in, say, three months, where the intersection with Mars would not be at the tip of the ellipse, but on the edge of the ellipse.
Now, that would mean the tip of the ellipse is out near Jupiter.
So, if you miss Mars, you're going to end up at Jupiter.
Jupiter's orbit.
So...
joe rogan
That's not good.
elon musk
Yeah.
And you're going to be coming in hot.
Yeah.
But I probably can get down to three months of that big of a problem.
Getting down to a month is hard.
And then Earth and Mars are only in the same sort of – there's only about a six-month period every two years when Earth and Mars are aligned such that you can do the transfer.
You can certainly imagine that if Mars is on the other side of the sun, you can't get there because it's got to go through the sun.
That's not going to work.
This is like about a quarter of every Mars year is when you can do the transfer.
So six months every two years.
So if we are able to build or if humanity is able to build a city on Mars, people will probably remember which planetary conjunction they came on.
It's not like you can just go all the time.
You can only go every two years.
joe rogan
When do you anticipate, like, how much time before there's regular travel back and forth to Mars?
Roughly.
Like a real civilization on Mars?
elon musk
Well, I think it's going to take a while to build a real civilization.
The threshold that really matters is If we're getting past the Great Filter, do we have enough resources on Mars such that if the spaceships from Earth stop coming...
joe rogan
You can survive.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
So you could only be just missing one little thing.
You'd be like, you're on a long sea voyage and the only thing you're missing is vitamin C. It's an only matter of time.
You know?
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
And then it's going to be curtains.
So you've got to have all the things necessary to sustain civilization on Mars.
And the reason that the shift stopped coming could be World War III or it could be due to a slow decline of civilization.
So civilization here on Earth could end with a bang or a whimper.
joe rogan
Or natural disasters.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Asteroid impact, super volcano.
elon musk
Yeah, that would be up in the bank category.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
But it could also be like a whole series of things.
Like, what killed the dinosaurs?
Well, it wasn't just one thing.
It was like a whole bunch of things happened in a row.
And...
You know, well, they could have taken any one of those things.
They had like three things happen and no dinosaurs.
joe rogan
Which is kind of amazing that crocodiles are still here.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Those fuckers.
They're resilient.
elon musk
Crocodiles, they...
They live on decayed meat.
They love rotten meat.
And so in any kind of disastrous situation, there's a lot of dead creatures.
And the crocodiles love it.
So that's why they're around.
Crocodiles and bugs and mushrooms.
joe rogan
And shrews.
elon musk
Shrews, yeah.
joe rogan
Which is why we're here.
elon musk
Yeah, exactly.
Our great-great-great-great-great grandparents were shrews.
joe rogan
What a strange thing to come from.
So there's hope.
There's hope for all you rodents out there.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
One day you can go to Mars.
Just keep doing your homework.
elon musk
Absolutely.
joe rogan
So there'll be...
You say the great filter.
What did you mean by that?
elon musk
Well, so...
There's something called, like, the Fermi paradox of, like, where are the aliens?
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
So, you know, where are the aliens?
And I think it was Carl Sagan that said, like...
There either are a lot of aliens or none.
And they're equally terrifying.
If there are a lot of aliens, well, I mean, the invasion ship slash...
You know, bug infestation, just, you know, like...
joe rogan
Starship Trooper style?
elon musk
Well, yeah.
I mean, it's like an alien civilization might just view us as like a bug infestation.
You know, it's like, hey, we left that planet.
It was fine.
Now it's got a bunch of bugs.
Just go fumigate it, you know?
We'd fumigate a house.
That's certainly possible.
But if there are no aliens, could it be that all civilizations are just destroyed before they become interstellar?
I want to be clear, to the best of my knowledge, there is no evidence for alien life on Earth.
There's no direct evidence for alien life.
No, you know, and if somebody says, oh, what about this alien, you know, sighting or whatever, I'm like, listen, it's got to be at least as good as a 7-Eleven or ATM cam, okay?
It's like, if somebody's got at least like an iPhone 1 level camera, like something, you know?
joe rogan
The problem with that is it's just too easy to fake things today, too.
elon musk
Yeah, sure.
At least try hard in Faking It.
joe rogan
Are you familiar with Commander David Fravor's account of the Tic Tac UFO that he encountered off of the coast of San Diego?
You know Lex?
Lex Friedman?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Lex Friedman interviewed him on his podcast, and I interviewed him as well.
And if you ever get a chance to listen to Lex's conversation with him, it's really excellent.
But this guy is a naval fighter pilot, and he talked about this thing that they tracked on radar that went from more than 60,000 feet above sea level to one foot in less than a second.
shaped like a tic-tac no visible sign of propulsion uh blocked radar uh actively jammed their tracking systems and then went to their predetermined point that they were supposed to that the the fighter jet was supposed to scramble to went to it uh 30 miles away in you know a They have no idea how it did it.
They don't know what it is.
And these guys that were working for the Navy off the coast said they encountered them several times.
They didn't know what they were.
They didn't know what to do.
elon musk
Do they have a photo or something?
joe rogan
They do.
They have video of it.
They have video of it.
You ever see the New York Times article that came out in 2017 about this stuff?
elon musk
I don't know.
joe rogan
Yeah, there was a New York Times article in 2017 that was detailing this, and there's a couple other different sightings that were very similar.
They were trying to figure out what these things were and why, and it was also in the COVID relief package that the CIA was supposed to release.
Yeah, the politicians are trying to figure out what all this shit is, and so they tried to get them to release all the information they have within 180 days.
elon musk
Honestly, I think I would know if there were aliens.
joe rogan
I would hope so.
That's why I'm asking you.
elon musk
No.
I'd be jumping on that like...
joe rogan
You should watch that conversation with Lex.
Sure.
Here's the thing.
Do you think that they would want us to know?
Or do you think they would just be observing and making sure we don't blow ourselves up?
elon musk
I don't know, man.
joe rogan
If you were an alien civilization.
elon musk
They sure are subtle.
I mean, if they wanted us to know, obviously they could just show up and walk down Main Street.
Like, hey, I'm an alien.
Check me out.
Here's my spaceship.
I just land in the middle of Times Square.
I'd be like...
Okay.
joe rogan
Or hover over downtown LA. Yeah.
Yeah.
elon musk
We were like, okay, we believe you.
Yeah.
So, whatever, they are very subtle, very subtle with aliens.
joe rogan
How often do you think about it?
elon musk
Zero.
joe rogan
Zero?
Even though you're thinking about interplanetary travel, you don't really think about aliens.
elon musk
No.
I mean, if they show up, I'm like, great.
Okay, now this is new information.
But we...
unidentified
What an interesting way of putting it.
joe rogan
This is new information.
elon musk
This is new information.
Like, where are you guys up till now?
Yeah.
So...
Anyway, listen, if I see some evidence for aliens, I'll be the first to be like, ah, aliens, you know?
joe rogan
Right, then you'll investigate.
But until then, you think it's kind of a waste of time?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
It definitely seems like a waste of time if nothing's happened so far.
You think about all the people that have been researching aliens for their whole life, and they have very little to show for it.
elon musk
Well, you know, there's...
joe rogan
Other than cool stories.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, we have archaeologists going all over the world looking at things.
If we were to find something like, let's say, a cube of titanium, just like a one-inch cube of titanium in the middle of the pyramid, I'd be like, aliens for sure.
There's no way they could have made titanium back then.
There's no way.
That's hard.
That's all.
You don't even need a computer.
A computer would be like, hey, wow, computers, they didn't have computers back then, so it must be aliens.
But even just some advanced metallurgy.
Anything.
Anything like that.
joe rogan
Right.
Nothing like that that we could point to that we can't do.
elon musk
Everything that we found archaeologically is consistent with the time, the technology they had at that time.
joe rogan
Archaeologically.
elon musk
Yes.
joe rogan
Yeah.
So you're just talking about old stuff.
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah, just throughout history.
It's not like...
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Like a alien visitor, there'd be something buried somewhere, I think.
We haven't seen anything.
So...
Anyway, maybe they're aliens, but they're very subtle.
If they are, they're being pretty shy.
As far as we can tell, there's none.
Nor are we seeing signals from any other solar system or anything like that.
The thing is that on a galactic timescale, even with sublight travel, you could absolutely colonize the whole galaxy, even some of the neighboring galaxies.
So if you said a million years and say there's no new physics, could you colonize the galaxy in a million years?
Absolutely, the entire galaxy.
joe rogan
So you would start with Mars, build bases on Mars, then use Mars to jump off to all these other planets, set up places there, and over thousands of years, easily.
elon musk
Yeah, just kind of like, you know, hop from one solar system to the next, and yeah.
joe rogan
That...
It seems like that's...
Imperative.
Like, that has to happen if the human civilization is going to survive.
Because our planet is just...
We're too subject to natural disasters and our own folly, and if the species is going to survive, we kind of have to escape.
elon musk
It's mostly about the species.
I mean, there have been some real doozies of, like, massive meteors and...
Super volcanoes and the continents moved all over the place and Earth's been a snowball and super hot.
If you read the geological history of Earth, it's very long and complicated.
So, and then there have been so many extinction events, not like just a few.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, the Permian extinction event, that was a real rough one, where it's like well over 90% of all species died out.
And that doesn't tell the whole story because a huge chunk of the remaining species were fungi and, you know, like sponges and stuff like that, you know.
Are you a sponge?
Okay.
You're probably doing okay.
They're still around.
Are you a mushroom?
Do you like being in the dark and feasting on dead plant and animal matter?
Okay.
But if you're like a human, you're screwed.
Yeah.
joe rogan
Well, didn't, people got down to, there was just a few thousand of us at one point in time because of a super volcano, I think Indonesia.
I think it was only 60,000, 70,000 years ago.
elon musk
Yeah.
There have been a number of sort of revolutionary choke points.
Yeah.
And the last ice age must have been pretty rough too.
A lot of species got wiped out then.
joe rogan
Is that part of what motivates you?
What motivates you to want to do this and to put people on Mars and to start traveling, get people traveling through the galaxy?
elon musk
Yeah, so philosophically...
I'm in the Douglas Adams sort of school of thought, which is that the universe is the answer, and we need to figure out what questions to ask to better understand the answer that is the universe.
So we want to expand the scope and scale of consciousness, increase our understanding of the universe, to understand why are we here, where do we come from, where are we going, what's this all about?
And in order to In order to, I don't know, just understand the meaning of life, we have to expand the scope and scale of life and the consciousness, which may be digital and biological in the future.
And get past at least one of the great filters, which is to become a multi-planet species.
A species that does not become multi-planetary is simply waiting around until there is some extinction event, either self-inflicted or external.
We've got to be a multi-planet species.
Also, that's way more exciting.
Do you want a future where we're out there among the stars exploring the universe, or do you want a future where we're stuck on Earth forever?
I think we want the super exciting future where we're out there exploring the galaxy.
That sounds great to me.
I think it's worth 1% of our resources, something like that.
Maybe more, but at least 1%.
joe rogan
Well, it's in all the most exciting sci-fi movies.
elon musk
Yeah.
If you saw a sci-fi movie and they didn't have spaceships, you'd be like, what's going on there?
Something terrible must have happened.
joe rogan
Well, we always assumed when we were kids that we would be traveling to the moon and back and traveling all over space by now.
Space 1999 was a show when I was a kid.
That was interplanetary travel.
Remember they had spaceships out there and motherships?
They thought 1999, by then, for sure, it would happen.
The problem is we need more Elon Musks.
There's not a lot of people that really dedicate all their time and energy to do something like this.
It's a really fascinating thing about the species.
It takes a few unique individuals that are motivated To do something like this and have the resources and the intelligence and you can figure out how to organize people to get something like this done.
Not a lot of you.
elon musk
Well, there's a lot of smart, talented people at SpaceX and at Tesla.
And that's how we get things done.
But, yeah, I mean, part of the reason why SpaceX is still privately held, although we have a lot of investors and everyone at the company has given stock, is that the time horizon for SpaceX is long.
You know, it's like, you know, what's the market for transporting things to Mars?
Well, no market.
There's no one there.
So, they were like, that sounds pretty risky.
And the public company, you know, the feedback loop tends to be, you know, maybe a year to four years or even quarterly.
And it's like, well, this is like 10 years, 20 years out.
And I probably answered your question earlier, which is like, when do I think we can go to Mars?
I mean, I think possibly as soon as five years from now.
Yeah.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
Yeah, but then you've got to build out the base, and then you've got to build out the city.
So the first thing you've got to build is, like, you've got to generate energy, so you've got a giant solar panel farm, and then you've got to have propellant production, so you've got to make the fuel and the oxygen, and you've got to grow food, grow plants, and all the things that are necessary for life support.
joe rogan
So does everything have to be done in a greenhouse?
Is it some sort of a dome?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So is there a long-term possibility of terraforming?
elon musk
Yes, long-term we can make...
If you just warm Mars up, there's a lot of frozen CO2 and frozen water that would liquefy.
The CO2 would densify the atmosphere.
The liquid water would form oceans and lakes.
So...
So basically a lot of frozen water and frozen CO2 on Mars.
joe rogan
And how would you warm it up?
elon musk
Well, there's a few ways to tackle that problem.
That'll obviously be up to the Martians, but I don't know.
You could have giant solar reflectors.
You could create miniature suns over the poles or something like that.
joe rogan
What?
elon musk
Well, it can be gravitationally contained, but you could just have it do giant thermonuclear explosions every few seconds.
The sun is a giant thermonuclear reactor in the sky.
If you want to know, hey, what is it like to be exposed to thermonuclear radiation, go stand outside in the middle of the day.
joe rogan
My 10-year-old said, If space has no air and fire needs air, how does the sun stay burning?
She loves to do that.
She looks at you like she's super smart.
unidentified
Hmm.
elon musk
Right.
joe rogan
That's a good question, little one.
elon musk
Yeah, there's a lot of interesting things about the sun.
The sun is converting, I think, four or five million tons of mass to energy every second.
So, you know, E equals MC squared.
So that's a lot.
It's a lot.
joe rogan
Yeah.
And it's not even a big sun.
elon musk
It's not even a big sun.
So, yeah, four or five megatons per second, every second, every day, for billions of years.
joe rogan
So what kind of engineering would be involved in creating a mini sun that you hover above the poles?
elon musk
The sun is a gravitationally contained reaction, so you need a lot of mass.
If you don't have a lot of mass, that's why you'd have explosions, just like little pulsing things, like a pulsing sun.
Some people have said, well, if you added up all the nuclear weapons on Earth, that wouldn't even be that much.
I'm like, yeah, because they're small.
We could make way bigger nuclear bombs than the current ones.
It was like, what's the point?
They said, well, if you want to make an artificial sun, then you'd just use a lot more hydrogen.
joe rogan
That would be something...
elon musk
Prytium or deuterium.
joe rogan
They would have to construct on Mars?
unidentified
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
And then figure out a way to launch it?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Jesus.
elon musk
Yeah, honestly, not that hard.
LAUGHTER I mean, they could do this without really even having computers back in the day.
But you can also do it with solar reflectors.
I don't know.
Somehow, if you want to make it look like Earth, you've got to warm it up.
unidentified
Right.
joe rogan
So, in hundreds of years from now, or whatever it would take, people would eventually, you know, figure some way out.
elon musk
Yeah, you could terraform Mars and make it be like Earth.
And we could bring, we could take life from Earth and breathe life into Mars.
There's nothing living on the surface of Mars.
Yeah.
Nothing.
It's cold.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
There's a lot of ultraviolet.
The combination of being cold and having a lot of ultraviolet radiation, that's the killer combo.
Just being cold, then bacteria could survive.
Or just UV, but warm, the bacteria can repair themselves.
But if they're frozen, and they get blasted with the UV, they can't repair themselves because they're frozen.
joe rogan
And isn't the speculation that at one point in time Mars did have an atmosphere?
Mars was different than it is now?
elon musk
Yeah.
It once had quite a dense atmosphere and it seemed most likely to have had oceans and lakes.
Now they're frozen and covered in dust.
That orange color you see is iron oxide.
So there's quite a lot of iron, just rust.
You know, for a while there they thought, well, maybe Mars was like some ancient civilization.
joe rogan
Do you remember the face on Mars?
elon musk
Sure.
joe rogan
There's a guy that was completely...
He was fascinating.
Richard Hoagland?
Is that his name?
See if that's the guy's name.
But he's, with all due respect, out of his fucking mind.
And he was making all these incredibly bizarre connections.
Like measurements from this rock to that rock and using all this mathematics to prove that this symmetry was impossible in nature.
This was all created by civilization.
That this face was like some sort of an ancient shrine to whatever being lived there before.
There it is.
Monuments to Mars.
Richard Hoagland.
That's the guy's name.
I used to listen to him on Art Bell.
It's crazy.
It was just...
I mean, I don't know if he's schizophrenic.
Maybe he's just smarter than all of us.
But, uh...
Jamie's shaking his head.
elon musk
I think aspirationally, you want to believe things proportionate to the evidence.
Not inversely proportionate to the evidence.
joe rogan
Well, he was definitely inversely proportionate to the evidence.
It was very strange.
It was one of those ones where I had to stop listening because I felt like I was going crazy, too.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
He was so invested in this idea...
Again, maybe he's right.
I don't think so.
elon musk
No.
I doubt it.
joe rogan
Well, then they had subsequent voyages where they made high-resolution scans of the exact same area and it looked very different without the same shadows.
It just looked like rocks.
elon musk
Yeah, Mars kind of looks like, I don't know, like some Arizona desert or something like that.
joe rogan
What do they think happened?
They think it was hit?
Like an asteroid hit?
elon musk
Well, everything got hit with light asteroids over time.
joe rogan
Do they think that that's what killed the environment there, the atmosphere?
elon musk
Well, the atmosphere...
So Mars has lower gravity than Earth, and it does not have a strong magnetic field.
So over time, this is over billions of years, the atmosphere will be gradually eroded by the solar wind and...
And having less gravity.
So, you know, the smaller you are, the less, generally the less atmosphere you're going to have.
So, yeah, so generating an atmosphere on Mars, it would eventually erode, but we're talking about hundreds of millions of years to billions of years type of thing.
Plenty of time to figure things out.
joe rogan
For us.
elon musk
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
So, but do you think that Mars' atmosphere eroded quicker because it's just smaller?
elon musk
That's a factor.
Yeah.
I mean, like if you look at, say, asteroids or, you know, they don't really have, like Sirius is a pretty big asteroid.
But it doesn't really have an atmosphere.
The moon doesn't really have an atmosphere.
So, in fact, it doesn't have an atmosphere.
Technically, there's a tiny amount of rarefied gas, but it's not a real atmosphere.
joe rogan
Did you pay attention at all to the guy who was the chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department, Avi Loeb, who was recently, there was a bunch of stories in the news because he believes that an object that came through our solar system in 2017 was possibly extraterrestrial in origin.
elon musk
Yeah.
The...
Whatever.
Your mommy burger.
joe rogan
Yeah, they don't...
He thinks that there's a 90...
Apparently there's a 91% possibility that it was shaped like a...
elon musk
Your mama asteroid.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Yeah, umamao.
It was a Hawaiian name.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Yeah, it was a Hawaiian name.
elon musk
It sounds like your mama.
joe rogan
Yes, it was like your mama.
Umamao or something like that.
Yeah.
Yeah, because it was discovered in Hawaii.
They gave it a Hawaiian name.
elon musk
Yeah.
Well, anyway, so I think a fundamental test of human civilization is, are we going to become a multi-planet civilization before something cataclysmic happens?
Now, I'll be clear, I'm pretty optimistic about the future, so I'm not thinking like we're, you know, civilization is about to end anytime soon.
But there's a chance that it will.
Like Stephen Hawking, before he died, he thought it was like around 1% a century, something like that, I believe.
So it's not like 1% chance over 100 years.
It's like 99% chance of making it.
So I think he's probably about right.
joe rogan
So, 1% chance per century, so as the centuries go on, there's less of a chance?
elon musk
No, it's...
joe rogan
More of a chance.
So, because we become more intelligent, more resources, and possibly the ability to escape Earth.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, it's like...
I don't know.
Russian roulette with, you know...
joe rogan
Asteroids.
elon musk
99 barrels are empty.
Click, click, click.
Eventually.
joe rogan
It's going to get us.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
You said something that I thought was really interesting.
The meaning of life.
Do you think there is a meaning to life?
elon musk
Well, I think arguably the meaning of life is to understand the nature of the universe and figure out what the meaning of life is.
So, like I said, I think we don't quite know the right questions to ask.
But if we learn more about the universe, if we expand the scope and scale of consciousness, then we are better able to ask the questions about the answer that is the universe.
joe rogan
But when you keep going with that, like, where does it go?
elon musk
I don't know.
That's why, if I knew, we're like, okay, case closed.
We can die now.
joe rogan
The problem I always have with that is, do I want there to be a meaning to this?
Because it gives sense of purpose to finite life forms.
elon musk
Well, I think there's a lot to understand about the universe that we don't yet understand.
joe rogan
Maybe it's a good time to have a beverage.
elon musk
Absolutely.
So let's see.
Alcohol is hour one.
What's hour two?
joe rogan
Hour two?
Well, I don't think marijuana is legal in Texas.
And the last time...
I don't have to remind you.
There was problems involved.
elon musk
Yes.
joe rogan
Ultimately not, though, right?
Well...
It was, like, temporary.
All that soothed over, right?
Didn't it?
CBD's legal here.
elon musk
CBD. CBD doesn't do anything, does it?
joe rogan
No.
elon musk
I think that's fake.
joe rogan
Well, no, it definitely does something for inflammation.
elon musk
It does?
joe rogan
Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure.
elon musk
Well, how much CBD do you have to have before you notice it?
joe rogan
Well, physically or...
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Physically, you don't have to have a lot.
Physically, CBD works great for people with arthritis and people with, like, sore muscles and things like that.
Cheers.
Yeah, no.
CBD definitely works for that.
But as far as psychoactive effects, not much.
It relieves anxiety for people.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
It helps people sleep, especially when it's combined with things like melatonin and things along those lines.
But it doesn't get you high.
elon musk
Yeah.
unidentified
No.
joe rogan
People do mix CBD with THC from muscle creams, though, and that doesn't get you high either, but it increases the effectiveness.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Yeah, there's some creams that are really good that people like that have THC and CBD in it.
unidentified
Alright.
elon musk
So you have sunscreen or something, and then...
I mean, why not?
Just throw it in there, you know?
unidentified
Why not?
Yeah.
joe rogan
Well, it's just...
It's great for soreness.
elon musk
You just smell like weed all day.
joe rogan
Yeah.
It doesn't smell like weed, though.
elon musk
It doesn't.
joe rogan
No.
No.
Some of it does, though.
elon musk
Some of it does.
joe rogan
That's the thing about anything that's unregulated, right?
Like, hippies are making it.
That's always the problem.
elon musk
Quality control.
joe rogan
Yeah.
No quality control.
That's the problem with edibles.
They're made by a bunch of crazy people.
Cooking them up in some, you know, Chula Vista apartment somewhere.
You really don't know what's in there.
Yeah.
elon musk
Anyway, so we've got to make life multi-planetary before it's too late.
joe rogan
Yeah.
I think that makes sense.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, why not?
Also, it's going to be fun and exciting, and even if you don't go, you can just watch it on TV. Yeah.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
It feels cool.
I mean, like, yeah, I mean, you know, it's not like, you know, attendance is mandatory here.
You know, and it'll be dangerous and people might die.
joe rogan
Well, for sure they're going to die, right?
elon musk
Yeah.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
That the idea is like, oh, Mars is going to be an escape hatch, some luxury resort for rich people.
I'm like, no, it's like high probability of death relative to Earth.
It's a long journey.
Food's probably not great.
A lot of hard work.
joe rogan
No sunlight.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, it's like, it sounds like, you know, Shackleton's out for the Antarctic, where it's like, it's dangerous.
It's a long journey.
The food's bad.
You know, might not make it back.
But if you do, it'll be glorious.
joe rogan
Yeah, it's interesting how much people adapt when they're faced with a real problem.
Like, if we knew that we only had a certain amount of time left, like if we knew an asteroid was absolutely headed our way and it was going to kill most of the people on this planet, you would see people scrambling for something like that.
Like, look, I moved to Texas just to get the fuck out of LA because I felt like that was dying.
I was like, we've got to get out of here.
And I never thought I was going to move out of L.A. like that.
It happened very quickly, but people adapt when they realize that you have to do something.
If we had to do something, we had to go to Mars and had to set up shop there.
elon musk
Yeah, I think it's important for the future of humanity and consciousness.
And like I said, we want to get past the great filter.
It might turn out that when we got there exploring the galaxy, we might find a whole bunch of dead one-planet civilizations.
And they just never made it to the next planet.
joe rogan
Ghost towns.
elon musk
Yeah, strange ghost towns.
We'll go through the archaeological ruins of ancient Babylonians and Sumerians and trying to decode their writing, like what the hell would Linear B and hieroglyphics.
joe rogan
Isn't that a problem with us now that everything has become digital?
Everything's stored on microchips and hard drives and if something catastrophic happened, We're good to go.
elon musk
Yeah, absolutely.
It's kind of problematic that things aren't chilled in stone.
You know, they used to be chilled in stone, and we're like, okay, now, you know, it's kind of a pain in the ass to destroy stone, and stone lasts a long time.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
So we still have a lot of writing from the ancient Romans, because they chose a lot of stuff in stone.
joe rogan
Or the Egyptians.
elon musk
Or the Egyptians, yeah, exactly.
Man, the Egyptians really went to town with the hieroglyphics.
joe rogan
Even the Sumerians, you know, the cuneiforms carved in the clay tablets.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Absolutely.
We kind of wish they had said more.
Yeah, exactly.
Like us.
Our stuff is...
Yeah, it's not going to last for a long time.
I mean, there are sort of aspects of our stuff that would last for a long time, but a lot of the interesting things are going to be lost forever.
Yeah.
When we did the Falcon Heavy test flight...
Normally when aerospace companies do like a rocket test flight, they put something boring on like a concrete block because they don't want to risk an expensive satellite.
And so I was like, well, we've got to do something that's not very inspiring.
You know, concrete blocks are one of the least inspiring things you can do.
So I was talking to a friend of mine, and he said, hey, well, what about putting a Tesla on that?
You know, I was like, hey, that's not a good idea.
I'm going to go in my garage.
I'll put that one in there.
So I put my car on the rocket.
And then we wanted to see how far the rocket could go.
So I was like, just, you know, floor it.
Let's go.
Maximum delta V. So I thought it would probably blow up, and I had this image of, like, man, it was like, you know, this thing could blow up on the pad, and then...
And there's like a tire bouncing down the road, and then the Tesla logo just lands, bam, right in front of the camera.
unidentified
It's like one of the things, like this is a movie, you know.
elon musk
That's kind of one of the possible outcomes.
And unfortunately, it didn't blow up, and now my car is orbiting Mars.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
Yeah.
So now in that car, so now hopefully somebody in the alien civilizations in the future could find that, because it'll be like around for like millions of years.
joe rogan
I've seen the images of it with the...
elon musk
It looks fake.
joe rogan
It looks fake.
elon musk
That's how you know it's real.
joe rogan
Is that how you know it's real?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
How do the images get to us?
elon musk
The images are too lame to be fake.
I mean, they look good, but for example, the dynamic range of the camera is not enough to pick up the stars and the vehicle.
Things are very bright in space.
We don't quite realize it, but in the atmosphere, The atmosphere is making everything a little fuzzy.
And in space, things are super crisp and really reflective.
joe rogan
There it is.
elon musk
Yeah, exactly.
joe rogan
So how is that getting to us?
unidentified
The image.
elon musk
Yeah, with a radio.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
So the rocket's got a...
joe rogan
How many megapixels is that image?
elon musk
Not that many, actually.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
No, I mean, it's probably a couple megapixels or something like that.
joe rogan
So like an old flip phone.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
It's mostly just driven by what's the bandwidth of a video signal.
joe rogan
So what do you have?
elon musk
These are frame grabs from the video signal.
joe rogan
And where's the camera that's taking this photo?
elon musk
Oh man, our director of photography is awesome.
joe rogan
But I mean, when this thing gets sent to us, what is taking an image of this?
elon musk
There's a camera on a stick.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
And it didn't break off?
elon musk
No.
I mean, we thought it might, but there's a camera...
I mean, it's kind of like a fairly wide angle, and so the camera's actually not that far from the car.
joe rogan
What is that one up there that shows the whole car?
Is that fake?
elon musk
That's fake.
joe rogan
Is that real?
elon musk
That's real.
joe rogan
Wow.
Is this Don't Panic on the screen?
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Don't Panic.
joe rogan
Speaking of the Roadster, when is that thing going to be available?
elon musk
Next Generation Roadster.
So we're finishing the engineering of it this year.
And so hopefully start shipping them next year.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
And we're going to throw some rocket technology in that car.
joe rogan
Yeah, I've heard about that.
What does that mean?
elon musk
So at a minimum it would be...
I wanted to hover, and I'm trying to figure out how to make this thing hover without killing people.
joe rogan
Right.
Yeah, good call.
elon musk
Yeah, exactly.
I thought maybe we could make it hover, but not too high.
So maybe it can hover a meter above the ground or something like that.
If you plummet, you blow out the suspension, but you're not going to die.
Maybe you're six feet.
I don't know.
Six feet, probably okay.
You're not going to die either.
joe rogan
Probably not.
elon musk
Probably not.
So if we just put a height limit on it, it's probably fine.
joe rogan
And would it be able to travel while it's hovering?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So you'll be able to go six feet off the ground and go how fast?
elon musk
Well, you go pretty fast, but you're going to be time-limited.
joe rogan
Right.
Like a jet.
elon musk
There's going to be a super high-pressure, like ultra-high-pressure air bottle.
joe rogan
Oh.
elon musk
So the standard roadster would have like two back seats, two like kid seats, you know, in the back, like small seats like the back of a Porsche or something.
Or if you get the, I don't know, the SpaceX option package, then in that place where the two rear seats are would be as a...
A high-pressure carbon overwrapped pressure vessel.
So, you know, I don't know, 10,000 PSI or something like that.
And then a bunch of thrusters.
And so, like, at minimum, I'm confident we could do a thruster where the license plate flips down, you know, James Bond style, and there's a rocket thruster behind it, and that gives you three tons of thrust.
joe rogan
Oh, for acceleration.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So that would be on the ground.
elon musk
That would be on the ground.
This thing would move like a bat out of hell.
joe rogan
Jesus Christ, but it already goes 0-60 in 1.9 seconds, right?
elon musk
That's the sedan with the four-door.
joe rogan
What?
elon musk
The new Model S Plaid that we start shipping this month, we just tested it on the Motor Trend spec.
0-60 is 1.96 seconds.
joe rogan
I have never driven my Tesla and go, why is this thing a little fucking faster?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
I mean, the one I have, the Model S, is 2.4, right?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Which is preposterous.
It's so crazy.
I take people in it.
elon musk
Yeah, they've never experienced anything like it.
joe rogan
No.
elon musk
In their entire life.
joe rogan
My friend Tim Dillon is like, so what's the deal with these Teslas?
And I go, you want to freak out?
You want to see something fucking crazy?
I picked him up at the Improv, and we drove to the comedy store, and I took him up Laurel Kenny.
Are you ready?
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
And I never take it out of ludicrous mode, by the way.
I keep it in ludicrous mode all the time.
elon musk
Yeah, it's fun.
joe rogan
I stomped on the gas, well, not the gas, the accelerator, and he started screaming.
He's like, ah!
What the fuck?
I go, yeah, it's what the fuck.
This is crazy.
elon musk
It's crazy.
joe rogan
It's crazy.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So this is significantly faster than that, just for the Plaid.
elon musk
Yeah, so the new Plaid, yeah.
unidentified
It's a half second quicker to 60. Pretty close, yeah.
elon musk
Every millisecond really matters when you start getting that fast.
joe rogan
I thought Plaid was going to ship later in the year.
elon musk
Yeah, we managed to make it go faster.
joe rogan
Oh, okay.
elon musk
We're both ways.
Plaid to Plaid.
joe rogan
And the Plaid has a wider wheelbase too, right?
elon musk
It does.
joe rogan
Yeah.
And so it handles better?
Is that the idea behind that?
elon musk
Yeah, it does have better handling.
Like we're trying to get to, on the Nürburgring, get to like the low seven minute mark.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
Yeah, with further improvements, I think we could bust seven minutes on the Nürburgring, which would be a pretty wicked outcome.
joe rogan
What is the record right now at the Nürburgring?
Is it the Porsche 918?
What has the record?
Something crazy like that, right?
elon musk
There's no production car.
I think no production car has got an under-7.
Oh.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
As far as I know.
And even the ones that are close, that they say are production, they do a bunch of changes.
joe rogan
Right, like change the tires, aerodynamics.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
But it's like, I think there's potential to have a car that, as delivered, can beat seven seconds on a number of things.
joe rogan
Isn't it funny that there's this one track that's the gold standard for almost all vehicles?
If you look at road and track or motor trend, you want to find out how badass this new sports car is.
It's like, what number does it do in the Nurburgring?
elon musk
Well, yeah.
Now, November Green, to be totally frank, is not representative of normal...
joe rogan
No.
elon musk
It's not normal.
Yeah.
It's the hottest one to...
You can't game it, you know?
Right.
unidentified
So...
elon musk
But I think for everyday driving, it's the acceleration that really matters.
Like, it's like, you know, you're at a...
You know, the light goes green.
Boom.
Who's across the intersection fastest?
The new Plaid will do...
You know, a sub-nine second quarter mile with an extra track speed and a quarter mile of 155 miles an hour.
joe rogan
And it's a sedan.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
It's a four-door.
elon musk
It can hit 60 miles an hour before it's cleared the intersection.
joe rogan
That's insane.
elon musk
Insane.
joe rogan
That's insane.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
It's uncomfortably fast.
joe rogan
Is that steering wheel legit?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Is it legal?
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, they use a yoke in Formula One.
They don't have a steering wheel.
joe rogan
Right, but you're not on the highway in a Formula One car.
elon musk
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
I like driving like this.
Like resting my hand on the top of the wheel.
elon musk
Well, I think autopilot's getting good enough that you won't need to drive most of the time.
Unless you really want to.
joe rogan
I like driving.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Yeah, I use autopilot sometimes.
I mean, but most of the time I drive.
elon musk
I find it's like, you can rest your hand on your knee, that kind of thing, and it works great.
Anyway, it looks awesome.
joe rogan
It does look cool.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah, it's very spaceship-y.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
It's great.
joe rogan
And all the stuff is on the steering wheel now, too, right?
The blinkers and all that jazz.
Even the horn is like a little button, right?
elon musk
Yeah.
And the horn is already kind of the center of the steering wheel anyway, but Is it still the center of the steering wheel as well?
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
But isn't it a button?
I thought on the yoke, there's a button for the horn.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Which you have to really...
I used to have a car that had a button for the horn.
I think it was an Acura NSX. Okay.
And it had, instead of the center hub being the horn, there was a button.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
I never remembered it.
elon musk
Well, there are no yokes.
Sorry, there are no stalks.
There's a yoke, but there's no stalks.
So the car, for example, will default to driving.
Like, if you just get in, when you press the brake pedal and then press the accelerator, it will figure out whether you want to go backwards or forwards.
joe rogan
That's crazy.
How's that possible?
elon musk
Well, it just looks and sees.
Is there an obstacle in front?
Okay, you probably don't want to wag it, so you probably want to go backwards.
joe rogan
Right, but what if you want to go backwards and there's nothing in front of you?
elon musk
Yeah, what if it's ambiguous?
Right.
So it would default to the inverse of whatever you started.
And then you can just swipe on the screen and change direction.
joe rogan
But isn't it easier to just hit like that way?
elon musk
Yeah, it's almost never.
You'll see.
It's like you almost never...
joe rogan
Do you do it?
unidentified
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
So this is something you've driven and it's intuitive?
elon musk
Yeah, once you get rid of the stork and have the car figure it out, it's annoying to have a stork after that.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
It's annoying.
joe rogan
You're talking to a guy who likes manual gearboxes.
elon musk
Sure.
joe rogan
I like going...
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, I like to drive on manual, too.
joe rogan
It's fun.
elon musk
Yeah, it's cool.
joe rogan
Yeah, there's different kinds of cool, though.
Like, when I tell people about the Tesla, I go, listen, I love cars.
I love all kinds of cars.
But the Tesla makes other cars seem dumb.
It does.
It makes them seem dumb.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
It's so fast.
It's so quiet.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
Everything about it, the navigation screen, it's so big.
Why wouldn't it be big?
It's better.
It's better to be big.
elon musk
Yeah, the software keeps getting upgraded.
joe rogan
The navigation system, the ability to just press that button and say, navigate to, and then it goes on the internet and finds out what you're looking for, and it finds it, restaurants, whatever you're looking for.
It's fucking amazing.
elon musk
Oh, there's like a little tip for the Tesla.
If you just swipe down on the Navigate button, it automatically figures out if you want to go to home or work and navigates there.
So if you're at home, and obviously you know how to get to work, but do you know the fastest way to get to work?
joe rogan
So to use like Waze-type technology?
elon musk
Yeah, like on a traffic-adjusted basis, what's the best way to go to work?
joe rogan
But how does it adjust?
Like, what is it getting your data from?
elon musk
It's downloading traffic data from the internet.
joe rogan
Okay, so Waze uses traffic data from the internet plus user input.
So, like, it takes an extra beat to get the traffic data from the internet.
The idea of Waze is that you're getting it from users in real time.
Like, there's a car accident, people program it in, hey folks, there's a fucking car accident here, and then you get it right away, whereas on the internet, you're a couple beats behind.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, we get the traffic data from Google.
joe rogan
Okay.
Oh, so it is for Waze?
Because Google owns Waze.
elon musk
Well, Waze and Google are slightly different, but they have similar datasets.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah.
So basically, let's say there's an accident on the way to work or road closure or something like that.
It would be helpful to know that before you encountered it.
So if you just swipe down, it will automatically navigate to work.
And then also the autopilot will work basically seamlessly.
We have the beta out, and the beta's working pretty well.
It's going to get super good, and it'll basically be able to drive you all the way to work.
Automatically.
You basically just get in, and it'll assume you're going to work if it's Monday to Friday in the morning.
Or you could, say, program maybe go to school, drop the kids off at school, then go to work.
You just do this stuff automatically.
You want to take the perspective of all input is error.
If you have to do something, it's an error.
Make the error smaller.
All input is error.
Unless it's a game.
All input is error.
joe rogan
Well, that's the other thing, too.
It has games.
Like, you can play chess.
elon musk
Yeah, you can play chess.
We got the backgammon with the aesthetic described in Lost.
J.J. Abrams asked for backgammon, so we put backgammon in with the Lost aesthetic.
It's got this really fun game called Polytopia.
I would say that's my top recommendation for any game in the car is play Polytopia.
joe rogan
What is that?
elon musk
It's a real fun strategy game.
You'll see.
It's the top of the list.
joe rogan
This is not something you can play while you're driving.
elon musk
Well, I mean, you're not supposed to play while you're driving.
That would be illegal.
joe rogan
But will it work while you're on autopilot?
So if you're on autopilot, can you also play chess?
elon musk
Well, you have to tap a button that says you're the passenger.
Kind of like Waze.
joe rogan
Okay, kind of like Waze.
unidentified
Yeah, so it's open for interpretation.
joe rogan
So if you are some chess freak, you could literally play chess on your way to work.
elon musk
Yeah.
unidentified
Wow.
elon musk
I mean, in the future, as the car becomes more and more autonomous, it's going to be really about entertainment.
Entertainment, productivity.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
So it's just probably entertainment first and foremost, and then productivity as well.
joe rogan
Do you have specific things that you do on your way?
Do you listen to books on tape?
Do you listen to music?
elon musk
Yeah, I usually listen to music.
joe rogan
Oh, those fucking pirate songs you like.
elon musk
The Sea Shanty?
joe rogan
i i thought you were joking about that until you played them yeah yeah and then i got you they're pretty catchy that's what's crazy i started researching see it stuck in your head i did not know that it was really a thing yeah jamie do you know Do you know about the sea shanties?
Oh my god.
elon musk
This is actually something really appealing about people singing in harmony.
It's actually way better than you think.
joe rogan
It's got a weird renaissance fair type thing to it.
You feel like you're all together in this old timey thing.
Pretending.
Very strange.
It's very odd.
elon musk
It seems like one of the top reasons to be a pirate would be sea shanties, and we have tropical taverns, and I don't know.
joe rogan
Cool outfits, I guess?
elon musk
Cool outfits, yeah.
You get to dress up.
joe rogan
Yeah, you get to dress weird.
If you lose your leg, they got pegs for you.
elon musk
Yeah, you got a parrot.
joe rogan
Yeah, a parrot.
How did that happen?
Now, what about the truck?
When is that thing going to happen?
elon musk
Cybertruck?
Yeah, so we're building a big factory here in Austin.
That's where we'll make the Cybertruck.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Now, did you decide to do this in Austin from the jump, or did along the way you decide to move the Cybertruck factory here?
elon musk
Yeah, well, frankly, Austin is a bit like many California.
So I was asking the team in California, all right, what's your top choice for the next big U.S. factory location?
Where do you want to spend time?
And the number one choice was Austin.
And then I was like, okay, okay, what's number two?
Silence.
unidentified
Silence.
elon musk
Yeah.
So many California here in Austin.
joe rogan
It is a lot, right?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
I mean, I hesitate talking about it because I've talked about it too much.
It's very utopian.
elon musk
Yeah.
I think Austin is going to be the biggest hometown that America has seen in half a century.
joe rogan
I think it's a great response to the fucked up government in some of the other cities.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, I think, you know, yeah.
I think we do need to make sure that people moving from California don't inadvertently recreate the issues that caused them to move in the first place.
joe rogan
The balance of Austin is a blue city and a red state.
It's almost like it kind of has to stay read.
Not kind of has to.
I think it does.
You need a certain amount of freedoms, but then you need the philosophical.
There's a bend to Austin that's very progressive and open-minded and artistic.
The restaurants are amazing.
The people are really cool.
But it needs to be sort of embraced by...
Guns and God.
Freedom.
That's part of the whole mixture that makes it work.
There's a metaphor to life in there somewhere.
It's protected by the rest of the philosophy of Texas, which is a wild, crazy place that has more tigers in private collections than in all of the wild of the world.
elon musk
Really?
joe rogan
Yes.
I had a bit about it in my 2016 special.
Texas has more tigers in captivity than all of the wild of planet Earth.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Yeah.
These are people's yards.
elon musk
They've got a tiger in the backyard.
joe rogan
In your place, wherever you live, you could get a fucking zebra.
I have a friend who lives out in Dripping Springs.
He saw a zebra.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
A zebra got loose.
There's elk out there.
Wild elk.
Just roaming around.
Somebody had an elk.
It jumped the fence.
Now there's an elk out there.
There's an axis deer.
In my neighborhood, I saw an axis deer.
I didn't see it.
My wife saw it.
She described it to me.
I know what it is.
She's like, it had white spots like a fawn, but it was really big.
I'm like, that's an axis deer.
So there's Axis deer.
Yeah.
They're from India.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
And tigers eat them.
Okay.
elon musk
Wow.
joe rogan
But these animals are, they're wild here.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Because people bought them and they put them in the yard and they jump the fence.
This place is crazy.
But that's why it works.
The reason why it works is because people have so much freedom, and then you have the University of Texas, you have Austin, which has a long history of art and music, Stevie Ray Vaughan, and Sixth Street, and so many great musicians have come from here, that it's got both of these things together.
It's got this wild freedom, and they embrace both parts of it.
That's the cool thing about this place.
elon musk
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
joe rogan
I've never felt more at home.
I fucking love it here.
elon musk
It's a cool city.
Like I said, it's going to be the biggest boom town that America has seen in 50 years, at least.
joe rogan
Yeah, I agree.
Yeah.
I think so.
elon musk
Mega boom.
joe rogan
Comedy clubs are moving here like crazy.
They're moving here left and right.
Cap City's reopening.
The Creek and the Cave just announced they're going to open here.
elon musk
That's cool.
joe rogan
I'm trying to open up a place here.
There's other clubs I'm trying to open up here.
Comedians are moving in here by the droves.
It's a wild place.
elon musk
Yeah, well, I went and saw you and Dave Chappelle.
That was great.
joe rogan
That was fun.
elon musk
That's a great venue.
joe rogan
Yeah, we did that Monday and Tuesday, too.
elon musk
That's cool.
joe rogan
It's just, there's something special going on.
It just feels fun.
It feels fun to be a part of the escape from this wretched dreariness of the COVID pandemic.
It was just like this horrible feeling of having no power and no autonomy and being controlled by the government.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
and being told what to do and it didn't seem logical and you're watching all these businesses fail and you're like there's got to be a better way and like there is no better way wear an extra mask three masks wear three masks and stay indoors and holy shit yeah yeah it didn't make any sense no you can't talk people out of a good panic they sure love it they love panic porn yeah fear porn is like that's people's favorite indulgence Yeah, that's what I say.
elon musk
Rule number one.
Just like Douglas Adams.
Don't panic.
joe rogan
But there's always people that don't.
And those people, they get together and they take solace in the fact there's other people that also don't want to buy into this shit.
elon musk
Sure.
joe rogan
You know?
elon musk
Yeah.
Anyway, so Orson's cool.
joe rogan
So the Cybertruck.
elon musk
Yeah, so we're going to build it.
Our factory is only like two miles away from the airport.
Oh.
joe rogan
Probably shouldn't tell people that.
elon musk
No, I mean, you can literally drive.
You can see it from the highway.
joe rogan
Do you anticipate visitors?
elon musk
Sure.
I mean, we'll offer tours and that kind of thing.
joe rogan
Will you offer, like, if someone wants to come and get their truck from the factory and drive it off the floor?
elon musk
You bet.
joe rogan
Ooh, that's exciting.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
That's exciting.
elon musk
We've got a lot of land.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
For 2,500 acres right next to the airport.
joe rogan
That's fucking cool.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
That's amazing.
elon musk
It's cool.
joe rogan
So when you're designing this Cybertruck, you had your launch and you showed the shape of it.
There was a lot.
I sent you a picture.
I remember I sent you a picture.
I was like, this is fucking cool.
And you're like, that's not real.
And I was like, oh, okay.
There's a lot of fake pictures before the initial launch.
elon musk
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
You tricked a lot of people because people thought it was going to look much...
Even though the picture that I sent you was pretty fucking cool.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
What you designed was...
Is that ultimately going to be what it really looks like?
Is it going to be that shape?
Has there been any revisions?
Yeah.
elon musk
No, that's pretty much what it'll look like with very small differences.
You know, we adjusted the size a few percent.
joe rogan
In what way?
elon musk
Well, it's, I don't know, like I think around 3% smaller.
joe rogan
Why did you decide to do that?
elon musk
Well, you know, it would be a couple inches too big for the tunnel.
joe rogan
Oh, okay.
For the boring tunnel.
elon musk
Well, I mean, we did actually drive through the boring tunnel in a Cybertruck with Jay Leno, which was a hair-raising.
joe rogan
Because it was a little bit too big?
elon musk
It was pretty snug.
joe rogan
Oh, no.
Imagine if you killed Jay Leno.
elon musk
Yeah, that'd be awkward.
How do we ever explain that?
joe rogan
He's the biggest petrol head ever, and he even loves your car.
elon musk
Yeah.
The Cybertruck is like CGI in real life.
You're standing right in front of it and it looks like this is special effect.
So that's cool.
It'll change the look of the roads.
It doesn't look like anything.
It looks like alien technology.
joe rogan
Yeah, and when is that coming out?
elon musk
We'll have probably limited production end of this year and volume production hopefully next year.
joe rogan
Have you ever considered something alternative to air inflated tires?
Have you seen some of these alternatives that have essentially spaces in between the upper wall and the wheel?
Have you thought about that?
elon musk
Yeah, we haven't found a tire that Because you've got to worry about road noise.
You've got to take out potholes and bumps.
You've got to have good grip, but you also want to have low rolling resistance so that you get good range.
Those are a lot of things to try to put into one tire.
Then if you also say, and it can't have air, it's like, this is hard.
aaron rodgers
But you're talking, I'm talking to a guy who's putting people on Mars.
joe rogan
You can't figure out an airless tire?
elon musk
It's just, it's an incremental constraint.
Yeah.
I'm not saying there won't be such a thing.
I think there will be, to be precise.
joe rogan
Because it seems like we've just gotten way too comfortable with this idea that tires blow out.
And you get flats.
It's very annoying.
elon musk
Flats are annoying.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Very annoying.
elon musk
Yeah.
Non-sport tires, by the way, are much less likely to have flats.
unidentified
Sure.
joe rogan
They have more bounce.
elon musk
Yeah.
Let's say you hit the edge of a pothole.
If you've got more rubber wall, you've got a longer way to go before you pinch the tire.
Sport tires tend to have more flats, especially in LA potholes.
That's the worst.
There was one particular pothole on Sunset Boulevard that It would just take out so many Model S, like a boom, boom, both sides of the car.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Damn.
elon musk
Yeah, Steven Spielberg was actually, it's like, hey, Steven Spielberg is like, two times when I was like, goddammit, I know that pothole.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
I feel like you can pay to fix that.
elon musk
I mean...
joe rogan
Fix that pot hole.
elon musk
It seems like that.
That's actually...
It would be like, man, there sure are a lot of taxes in California for roads this bad.
joe rogan
No.
The place is a mess.
Yeah.
So ultimately, one day, that's a possibility of having some sort of an airless tire.
Because I've seen prototypes.
I've never seen one on an actual car in physical...
In real life.
elon musk
Yeah, I think the technology is gradually getting there.
And I think for something like a robo-taxi, where you want to have the tires last for a long time and not go flat, it's going to make a lot of sense.
joe rogan
Yeah.
But other than that, essentially most of what we saw in the demo is the same.
It's still going to have...
unidentified
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
There was the issue with the glass when it accidentally shattered.
How annoying was that?
elon musk
That was shocking.
I mean, we literally spent hours beforehand with lots of people throwing steel balls at the window.
Right.
I mean, we must have thrown at least a dozen people must have thrown steel balls at the window.
joe rogan
At the same window, though?
elon musk
Yeah, same damn window.
joe rogan
Isn't that the problem?
elon musk
Yeah, it turns out that might be the problem.
If you keep throwing steel balls, eventually it's going to break.
And I did ask Franz to really wind up and give it all.
unidentified
I should have like, take it easy.
joe rogan
Give me a fake wind up.
elon musk
Yeah, we don't need the fastball.
But I did ask for the fastball.
I'm like, okay, let's go for the slightly slower ball.
joe rogan
Do you think it was because you guys were hitting the sidewall with a sledgehammer first?
elon musk
Yeah, yeah, that could be...
Like, we're trying to figure out how the hell did this thing break because, I mean, we were just bouncing steel balls off it all day.
Right.
And I think possibly what might have happened there was that hitting it with a sledgehammer might have cracked the base of it, and once you crack the base of it, it loses all its strength.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
And then it would just have a hairline fracture, and then you hit it anywhere, it's going to shatter.
joe rogan
Did you recreate that?
elon musk
We didn't.
It's also hard with test glass.
When you actually do production glass, it's much more robust than demo glass.
because production glass, you, you, you, you, um, you're like demo glass that you just can't make.
You have to have like massive tools and ovens and everything to make the production glass.
It's like, and if you don't, we, That takes a while to do.
So the production glass is always better than demo glass.
Nonetheless, it should have worked.
And it was probably because we racked it with a sledgehammer and then threw the steel bull at it.
But it will be bulletproof to a handgun.
joe rogan
Now, why did you decide to do all that, make it bulletproof and make it like you could hit it with a sledgehammer?
Like, what was the motivation to make it different than just like a Model S? I mean, I think, you know, it's like, what's cool about a truck?
elon musk
Trucks are tough.
And like, okay, what's tougher than a truck?
A tank.
What about a tank from the future?
Okay, now you have a tank from the future.
joe rogan
Okay.
elon musk
Yeah.
That's bulletproof.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
And how does that compare to, you know, it's way tougher than a regular truck.
joe rogan
Look, it's fucking cool.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
There's no doubt.
elon musk
I mean, having something's bulletproof.
That should be like Halo with a rocket launcher in the back.
joe rogan
Have you thought about doing something like that?
elon musk
Somebody's going to do it for sure.
joe rogan
For military use?
Yeah.
Seems like it.
elon musk
I mean, I don't know.
That sounds like it would be fun.
I mean, you should, like, you know, cruising around the field and, like, loving shooting rockets.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
Now, is there ever a possibility that these things are going to be solar powered?
Is that someday, is this solar technology going to get to a point where...
elon musk
It's kind of a surface area issue.
So, I mean, I think we could possibly put the cover of the truck bed, you know, put some solar cells in that.
So if you just leave it out in the sun, you know, probably, you know, recharges a few miles a day type of thing.
joe rogan
Oh, it would only be a few miles?
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
But what about one day?
Is it possible that technology could evolve to the point where they could extract more?
No.
unidentified
No?
elon musk
Really?
No, so there's about one kilowatt per square meter of solar energy, and then you're going to get, I don't know, probably 20%, 25% efficiency, so you get 200 watts per square meter, and then that's assuming that you're normal to the sun, so, you know, like you're, you know, at the right angles, basically, like, are you facing the sun or not?
So, when you add all those things up, you say, how many square meters can you really get?
And then, how many watt hours per mile?
So, Basically, if you could do 10 miles a day, you'd be lucky.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
And that's not going to change?
elon musk
No.
joe rogan
Wow.
That sucks.
It'd be cool if it just ran...
I mean, is it possible to make a car entirely of solar panels?
Like, the entire surface of it?
Solar panels?
Like, in a place like LA or somewhere where it's never cloudy?
And drive around in that thing?
elon musk
Yeah.
No, you're going to burn off energy faster than you can drive.
If you don't drive that often, that's a different story.
joe rogan
The only option is to have a solar paneled home and extract the power that way and charge your car.
elon musk
Yeah, solar paneled house has got a lot of area.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
You could possibly have some solar thing that unfurls that has a lot more surface area.
joe rogan
So when you park it at work or something like that, it would unfurl.
Yeah.
elon musk
But it just needs area.
Like I said, think about maybe 200 watts a square meter, maybe 20 watts a square foot, something like that.
joe rogan
Now, the range of the new cars is much longer.
Yes.
Like, what is the range of the standard Model S that's available right now?
It's like 300 and...
elon musk
Yeah, 350, 360. I don't know.
It's a lot.
Actually, the new long-range Model S is over 400-mile range.
joe rogan
The new one.
elon musk
Even the old one.
The old one was even 400 miles.
The new one is 400 miles, too.
joe rogan
But the Plaid will get you up to...
elon musk
So, the current Plaid is going to be around 400 miles range.
There's Plaid Plus.
That's maybe a year from now.
That'll be on the order of 500 miles.
That's a lot.
I hear drive 500 miles, anyway.
joe rogan
Well, if you drive it across the country.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's pretty rare.
I mean, like...
joe rogan
Yeah, for most commuters.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, even if you're driving 100 miles an hour, you're still going to drive for a while before you run out of battery.
joe rogan
And the truck, what is the Cybertruck's range going to be?
elon musk
We have to pick a range, actually, for the initial version.
It'll be some number over 300 miles.
joe rogan
Now, when you say pick a range, is it in terms of the battery array that you put in?
elon musk
Yeah, so what's the pack size?
joe rogan
So do you have to take into account how much weight it's going to add, how long it's going to take to charge?
elon musk
Yeah.
Basically, the things that matter are the frontal area times the drag coefficient for aerodynamic drag, and then rolling resistance, which is a function of mass, and the tire efficiency...
So...
This has a big frontal area.
It's not very aerodynamic.
And the tires are not super...
They're not optimized for long range.
joe rogan
It looks very aerodynamic, the truck.
As a moron?
You don't want sharp angles?
elon musk
You don't want sharp angles.
joe rogan
See, that's the problem.
To me, I'd be like, yeah, that's slicing right through like a knife.
You want it rounded.
elon musk
You want it rounded.
So...
You want the air to have like smooth, like if you're a little air particle, you don't want the bumps.
unidentified
Right.
elon musk
You want like smooth, just like you're driving over the car, no bumps.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
Just, you know, easy going.
Sharp angles are bad for aero.
joe rogan
So that aero will contribute to the lack of range.
So it'll minimize the range somewhat.
elon musk
It'll have a drag coefficient that's pretty good for a truck.
Because enclosing the bed at an angle, that helps a lot.
Like normal trucks going down the highway, it's like a barn door.
Right.
I mean...
joe rogan
It's like having a parachute in the back.
elon musk
You might as well be flying it, yeah.
It's like not far different from driving with a parachute.
So you can think of like drag as basically, it's like the integrated pressure profile over the car.
So if you create a low pressure zone in the back of your car where you don't like fill in the gap, like you're cruising through the air, you're making a hole through the air, and the air is trying to fill in the gap.
And if you've got a sharp transition into the truck bed, it's a big low pressure zone, basically.
And that's bad for drag.
So having the sloped back where that's got the truck bed cover, that's very helpful.
But the sharp angles are not helpful.
joe rogan
So the range of that truck is yet to be determined?
You're trying to figure it out.
elon musk
It'll be over 300 miles.
joe rogan
What about the Roadster?
elon musk
I mean, some of these things, we've got to decide, like, what's actually the best product?
You know, how much range do you really want, you know?
If you ask people, I say, well, I want...
You know, 600 miles range.
I'm like, okay, well, that means most of the time you're holding around a battery pack you're not going to use.
joe rogan
And it'll slow you down.
It'll inhibit handling.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's like, why not have a car that's got a fuel tank that has 2,000 miles range?
You know, like, go and fill it up, like, once every six months or every three months or something.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
But people, they basically figured out, like, actually carrying that much fuel around is not worth it.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
So...
So I think, you know, there's some of the stuff you can do for kind of like bragging rights and like, but then, you know, bragging rights are going to get old fast.
So it's more like, what are you going to like on a day-to-day basis?
What's like, what maximizes the area under the curve of owner happiness?
So it'll have enough range that you'll never have to worry about range.
Let me put it that way.
joe rogan
Okay.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So somewhere...
elon musk
You can drive from LA to San Francisco, no problem.
Austin to Dallas, no problem.
joe rogan
So a few hours of driving.
Easy.
elon musk
Many hours of driving.
joe rogan
Many hours of driving.
Now, I heard you talk recently about the possibility of a van, like sprinter van style.
elon musk
Yeah.
Now, a van, because you've got a big, flat area, that's actually where solar could start to make a little more sense.
You know, because you could have a lot of area.
joe rogan
So for the roof.
elon musk
Yeah.
And I think you also have like maybe a roof where, you know, it's solar and then when it's stationary, like maybe...
joe rogan
Awnings.
elon musk
Yeah, it like, it goes out and provides shade and maybe triples your area or something like that.
Now, if you go like, okay, now triple the area and you've got a big flat surface, now you could start having, maybe having charging enough that you, you know, you could start getting like 30 miles a day, that kind of thing.
joe rogan
That's interesting because there's a lot of people that use those for camping.
unidentified
Yeah, yeah.
joe rogan
Like my friend Tom Green.
You know Tom Green?
elon musk
I think so, yeah.
joe rogan
He used to be on MTV and actor and comedian.
He's traveling across the country right now in one of those vans.
Like, style van.
I think he got a Ram, a Dodge Ram.
Sprinter van style.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
And if you had something like that, he has an awning that extends and he's got a bunch of camping and he does a podcast out of it.
If you had something like that, it seems like...
elon musk
I think that would be great.
You could have a van that just...
Even if the apocalypse came around, you can still drive.
joe rogan
Yeah.
And maybe you can even have some sort of an external tent that you could set up that's just a solar tent that could juice you up during the day or something along those lines.
elon musk
Yeah.
For solar, it's all about area.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's called 200 watts a square meter, maybe 20 watts a square foot, something like that.
joe rogan
But I don't understand that there's no way that that's ever going to get more efficient?
elon musk
No.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
No.
I mean, the solar incidence is, somewhat coincidentally, roughly 1,000 watts per square meter.
Or, you know, in a 10 foot by...
Sorry, like 10 square feet-ish, there's 1,000 watts.
And then...
That includes all the heating and everything else.
So then you have to say, okay, for a photoelectric effect, You're going to capture photons within a certain band and you're not going to get them all because basically what happens with the photon hits the electron and gets it to jump over a gap and run around to the other side.
That's what happens with the photoelectric effect.
It just hits a It hits the photon with the right energy, hits the electron, the electron gets excited, jumps over a gap in the semiconductor, and races around to the other side.
That creates an electric circuit.
So, you have to say, okay, well, how are you going to get those, you know, electrons, just the right energy?
Like, what kind of photon incoming energy you've got?
Yeah, it pretty much tops out around 30% efficiency for a silicon system.
Now, if you have triple junction gallium arsenide, you can do a lot better, but that's very expensive.
joe rogan
So, but if you're talking about, like, How much better could it do?
elon musk
In the mid-30s, maybe.
40. A big price increase.
joe rogan
But still not enough to actually power the entire vehicle?
elon musk
No.
You're talking about for practical purposes.
How's it going to do?
Because you can't have, like, crazy money stuff in a car, you know?
joe rogan
When you say big money, like, how much more?
elon musk
Like, ten times the cost, at least.
joe rogan
Oh, wow.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, you don't see anyone...
I mean, the only thing...
Like, there's satellites that have, like, the triple junction gallium last night stuff, you know?
But, frankly, even for satellites, it's questionable.
For our satellites, for Starlink, we don't bother with that.
joe rogan
That's another thing I want to talk to you about, Starlink.
Starlink is semi-controversial, right?
Because on one hand, people think it's great that you're going to provide the internet through these satellites that are flying around.
elon musk
Sure.
joe rogan
But astronomers and a lot of people that are, you know, amateur astronomers.
elon musk
Mostly the amateurs.
We've talked with the professional astronomers and assuaged their concerns.
joe rogan
Yeah?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
But the amateurs are pissed.
elon musk
Yeah, they're like, you know, they don't know what they're talking about.
They're pro-level guys.
They know what they're talking about.
So, we'll make sure that this is not like an obstacle to science.
joe rogan
The obstacle would be the visual aspect of it, right?
Seeing these things flying around, that would be it?
elon musk
Yeah, honestly, it's pretty hard to find our satellites.
Once they've reached orbit, it's hard to find them.
And we have trouble finding our satellites.
They were like, uh-oh, we got like...
joe rogan
But I've seen pictures of them.
elon musk
Yeah.
Well, first of all, during the initial...
When they get tossed out of the rocket, briefly, they're tumbling.
And so when they're tumbling, they'll twinkle.
And then you'll see them.
joe rogan
Oh, so this was just the initial...
elon musk
Yeah, it's just the initial...
They just got tossed out of the, you know, off of stage deploys.
The way we deploy them, we don't even really have a separation mechanism.
You can see the video online.
But we kind of tie them down like a bundle of hay.
And then we let go of the rods that are holding this big bundle of satellites down.
But before that, we rotate the stage.
So the stage is rotating, and the satellites get just like, if you took a deck of cards, and they all get thrown out.
Because they have different amounts of rotational inertia.
joe rogan
And what kind of bandwidth are these going to provide?
elon musk
Oh, so...
Yeah, I mean, I think long term we're talking about gigabit level.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah, gigabit low latency.
So you could play like a fast twitch video game, download a movie super fast.
It'd be great.
joe rogan
And this is going to be global?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
And is it global by the satellites that you've already launched initially, or will it require a series of satellites in different parts of the country or different parts of the world?
elon musk
Well, these satellites are actually zooming around the Earth at 25 times the speed of sound.
And there's currently 36 planes.
I mean, to the satellite, the satellite feels like it's going in a circle, but the Earth's rotating underneath the satellite.
So the ground track looks like a sine wave.
From the ground perspective, the satellite's doing this sine wave with a peak at 53 degrees.
And then there's 36 planes, so they're all doing like a sine wave, you know, just offset by a little bit.
But like I said, space is real big.
So they're not in danger of whacking into each other.
It's super big up there.
They don't really even get close.
Anyway, so they were zooming around Earth.
We got a lot of coverage, around 53 degrees.
And then we just started to launch some polar satellites, which will have an orbital inclination that allows them to have visibility to the poles.
joe rogan
Who the fuck is that for?
Just in case?
elon musk
I mean, the best people that live up there, you know?
joe rogan
I guess a few.
Yeah.
elon musk
There's Antarctic Research Station.
joe rogan
Okay.
So they're going to have internet access.
elon musk
It's spectacular.
joe rogan
They can play Halo up there.
elon musk
Yeah, they're going to go from having trash for internet to having incredible internet.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So it'll be the whole world?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Wow.
Wow.
elon musk
Yeah, everywhere on Earth will have high bandwidth, low latency internet.
joe rogan
And will you be able to increase the bandwidth over time through software?
elon musk
There's a lot that can be improved with software.
But I should say that there's going to be a role for many different types of connectivity.
So Starlink is great for low to medium population density.
But the satellites are actually not great for high density urban.
So you're actually better off having 5G for that.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
Because the other thing is, that satellite is pretty far away.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
So, you got that satellite.
Over 500 kilometers away, even if it's right above you.
On a slant distance, it could be 1,000 kilometers away.
joe rogan
So this would be fantastic for rural areas?
elon musk
Yeah.
It will provide some amount of connectivity in dense, open environments.
Equivalent to, what, 3G? No, it's more like, so I think, like, basically, like, what's the spot size of a satellite?
Like, when it's putting a beam down in a location, and how big is that beam?
And that's, so it's got a certain amount of bandwidth for that beam.
And that beam is just like, it's a pretty big, like, think of it like a flashlight or something.
joe rogan
Right, and what is it?
elon musk
It's the same thing.
joe rogan
It reaches a few blocks?
elon musk
Like, if you had a flashlight up there and you're pointing down, it's like, okay, you're going to illuminate an area.
Right.
So, a flashlight's just shooting out photons in the visible spectrum.
We're shooting out photons in the KUK event.
So, much bigger wavelength than visible light.
So, anyway, so these things...
So we got a bunch of spot beams basically.
But these beams are giant by cellular standards.
Like they might be several miles diameter on that beam.
So then you got, for argument's sake, 10 mile diameter, 16 kilometer diameter, This is a lot of area.
And all of the terminals in that area will get the same information because it's got that beam that's just going down that spot.
So, whereas you could have like a 5G tower that's the ones that aren't causing corona.
joe rogan
Kidding!
unidentified
Kidding!
elon musk
5G, of course, Corona.
unidentified
It's a fact.
joe rogan
Oh, my God.
Have you seen any of that stuff?
That's one of the most disturbing things about the Internet.
Anyway, go ahead.
elon musk
Well, I mean, when technology is magic, then you don't know what to believe.
joe rogan
Right.
And when you're a moron, you believe anything.
elon musk
Well, so a cell tower could have a range of, you know, a mile or, you know, mile slash one and a half kilometers.
It basically could have like 1% the area of a satellite beam.
So, like, if you had something that was, you know, one mile or if I can say kilometer or 10, it's going to be the square of that.
That is the area.
So, satellites are great for low to medium density.
5G is ideal for high density.
joe rogan
I see.
And also because you could distribute the towers every mile or so easily and dress them up like trees.
That always bothers me.
elon musk
I think they should do better at the fake trees.
I feel like, come on, somebody doesn't care enough.
You could definitely have a way better fake tree than that.
joe rogan
They're so bad.
elon musk
They're so bad.
They look terrible.
joe rogan
Who are they tricking?
No one.
elon musk
No one.
joe rogan
Right?
elon musk
No, I'm like, what is this farce?
joe rogan
Yeah, they're offensive.
They're more offensive than, like, the most ridiculous fake tits.
You know, like the big ones that look like basketballs?
elon musk
We cleaved a melon in, too.
joe rogan
Yeah, they have no shape that resembles a breast at all.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
There's something weird about them, too.
It's like, I'm not offended by a tower.
elon musk
Yeah.
unidentified
That is the fake.
joe rogan
Well, the Christmas tree part at the bottom was kind of sweet.
You could put ornaments on it.
Is that one at the top right?
That palm tree one?
Is that fake?
No, that's a good fake if that's a...
The left side, Jamie?
Yeah, yeah.
I'm sorry.
Scroll.
Keep scrolling.
elon musk
The palm tree one looks pretty good.
joe rogan
Is that real?
Wow, that's kind of not bad.
That's not bad.
elon musk
Yeah, that one's pretty good.
joe rogan
It's not bad.
Yeah, if you were driving by that, that wouldn't be offensive.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
But the one in the middle's not bad either.
That's kind of a pine tree looking thing.
elon musk
It looks like some sort of demented Christmas tree.
joe rogan
That's a tower?
Go back to the one you just had, that far left.
That's probably the most impressive.
The one on the left-hand side.
The far left one.
Because if you had a forest full of those, you would just go, these are just weirdly trimmed trees.
elon musk
Yeah, it's not that hard to have a fake tree.
You could definitely have a little bit of effort.
joe rogan
I don't need that.
Just like I don't need when I pass by a telephone pole.
I don't need to pretend it's something different.
It's a fucking cell phone tower.
Who decided to make those things into fake trees?
When did this become a precedent?
elon musk
I don't know.
But you can definitely make a fake tree that is convincing.
So, maybe just a bit more effort in the fake tree.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Or just make them look cool.
Make them look like robots.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Have a big Ultraman out there.
elon musk
I mean, some people are, like, really worried about, like, cell phone towers.
Thinking they cause, like, radiation or something.
Poisoning.
This is not true.
joe rogan
Yeah, people are worried about 5G, right?
elon musk
Don't worry about it.
joe rogan
No?
Not at all?
elon musk
I mean, no.
Like, if I had cell phones, if I had a helmet of cell phones, strap around my head, and around my nuts, I would not worry.
joe rogan
Yeah, I met a dude once who had ball cancer who was convinced that his cell phone was in his pocket, and that's what gave him ball cancer.
elon musk
Nope.
unidentified
No?
elon musk
No.
unidentified
Okay.
Hey, buddy.
joe rogan
Sorry.
Yeah.
elon musk
No, it's not...
The cell phone is not...
No.
joe rogan
Yeah, I didn't know this guy very well, but he was pretty convinced.
Meanwhile, he kept the phone on the same side.
He was one of those dudes that had the phone on the little hip thing.
You know, a little bracket on his hip.
Kept his phone there, even after it killed one of his nuts in his eyes.
elon musk
He's like, well, damage is done.
Your phone or your balls.
joe rogan
Yeah, he gave up.
They got me.
elon musk
Yeah.
Yeah, don't worry about it.
Phones are not causing cancer.
joe rogan
So there's no concern whatsoever with the radiation that's caused by those things?
elon musk
No, first of all, when people say radiation, they're conflating this term from nuclear bombs.
Technically, we are currently bathed in radiation right now.
joe rogan
This table has radiation, right?
elon musk
Everything produces radiation.
Everything.
Everything's emitting photons all the time.
So it's just a question of what wavelength.
And if you have a very short wavelength or high-frequency photon, that is capable of causing DNA damage.
But we're talking about, like, ultraviolet and beyond.
Your phone's not even close.
So, yeah.
And then the thing that really causes problems in Let's say a nuclear explosion are alpha particles.
So it's basically helium nuclei.
So those things, they're like tiny cannonballs.
So those will rip right through you.
It's like if you got shot with tiny cannonballs, bad things would happen.
So that's also cold radiation, but it's really particles.
So you don't want to be bombarded with high-speed helium nuclei.
That's going to be bad.
joe rogan
How does that happen?
elon musk
Well, that happens in a nuclear explosion.
joe rogan
Oh!
Okay, avoid those.
elon musk
Yeah, that's bad.
joe rogan
But cell phones are okay.
elon musk
Yeah, cell phones are not emitting particles.
So if it's like, if my cell phone is going to cause brain cancer, I'm like, because of radiation, I'm like, do you mean photons or particles?
And it's like, it's not emitting particles, so we can just put that aside, don't worry about the particles.
Then the photons that are emitting, the most they can do is slightly warm up your ear.
Only by a tiny amount.
It's like, okay, if you had an ear warmer that was very mild, that's your phone.
joe rogan
Mm-hmm.
elon musk
That's all.
It's emitting photons at a frequency that is not going to cause DNA damage.
joe rogan
So don't worry about it.
elon musk
Sleep easy at night.
Don't worry about your phone.
It's fine.
joe rogan
David Icke does not believe you.
He's doing backflips right now.
You fucking shell.
So what concerns people is the unknown, right?
They hear about 5G, and then they hear about radiation, and they're like, wait a minute, should I? Is this safe?
What are we doing?
Are we just ruining everything?
elon musk
No, it's fine.
Totally fine.
Thank you.
joe rogan
Now I feel good about my 5G phone.
elon musk
If you had a helmet that was made of cell phones, you'd be fine.
joe rogan
Yeah, but this is coming from a guy who wants to stick a quarter-sized hole in your head and shove wires into your brain.
elon musk
Yeah, so I know a few things about what causes a brain damage.
joe rogan
I know, but that Neuralink concerns the shit out of people.
That scares folks.
That's the ultimate unknown.
elon musk
Well, I think it would be problematic if we punt you to the ground and put it in.
joe rogan
Yes.
elon musk
I agree.
And said like, okay, you're going to get this.
We're going to chip you whether you like it or not.
joe rogan
The chip you thing.
elon musk
We're going to chip you.
joe rogan
That's the other thing that people are scared of, right?
elon musk
You will have to sign a million disclosures and this is not going to be something where it just suddenly pounces on you like, ah, everyone's getting chipped.
No.
It's a very slow process of, okay, let's first try to help people who have serious brain injuries.
Like if somebody got a spinal cord injury or something like that, that's one of the first things we're looking at doing is somebody, maybe a quadriplegic, tetraplegic, how do we give them an implant that allows them to use their computer or their phone?
And have it be wireless and, you know, like they look totally normal.
You wouldn't even know that they had a chip in their head.
And they can just charge it inductively like you charged like a Fitbit or something like that or Apple Watch or something.
And that's kind of like one of the first applications we're thinking of.
It's like, let's restore functionality someone has had a serospinal injury or a serous brain injury or some other kind.
So this is going to be like a very gradual process.
You'll see it coming.
But I was playing Cyberpunk, the game, and I'm like, eh, jeez.
unidentified
Are you worried about what you're doing?
elon musk
Yeah, it's like, this is pretty close to home here, you know?
Like, oh man.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Like, is this where it leads?
It might lead there eventually.
I'm just saying for right now, it's going to help people who really need it.
joe rogan
Well, you know, we had this discussion before that we're all basically already cyborgs, right?
We're already relying upon our phones.
They're connected at the hip to them.
People are relying on glasses and all sorts of other technology to improve their life.
This is another gradual step in that direction.
And if you just keep going in that way, it seems like I like being a human.
And I think, you know, look here, we're drinking whiskey, we're talking, we're at a wood table.
This is a very human experience.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
But ultimately, we are archaic.
And we will eventually be aliens.
We're going to be those dudes with the big heads and the little tiny bodies.
unidentified
But we still need to feel.
joe rogan
For now.
unidentified
Until it becomes more efficient to do it inside the mind.
joe rogan
Yeah, but then once it becomes virtual, once virtual supersedes whatever, like imagine if the virtual orgasm was a hundred times better than a regular orgasm.
elon musk
I got news for you on that front.
joe rogan
Oh.
elon musk
It is.
It's disturbingly good.
joe rogan
The way you're rubbing your chin.
elon musk
Disturbingly good.
Get my little dog in it.
Stroke his head.
Oh, you'll love it.
Money back guarantee.
joe rogan
You'll love it.
elon musk
It's a snap.
joe rogan
There was a woman who, it was in the 1970s, who had some sort of analogy to pain pills.
And they did some experiment with her where they put wires into her brain and gave her a device.
Do you know this story?
elon musk
There are a few stories like this, yeah.
Where it actually hits the pleasure center and then you're like, my god, this is the best thing ever.
joe rogan
She just kept hammering it.
She developed blisters on her finger that she used to hit the button.
She never stopped hitting that button with the same finger.
Didn't give a fuck about those blisters.
She was just cumming constantly.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
And then she started adjusting.
She tried to tamper with the device to increase the amplitude.
She became just an orgasm junkie.
She was crazy.
She was begging them to take it away from her.
And then when they tried to take it away from her, she would fight them.
It's madness.
I researched this extensively because I was fascinated by the idea that this could eventually become a part of your phone.
elon musk
We could definitely make that happen.
joe rogan
That's a real issue with people.
The instantaneous desire for pleasure.
elon musk
We wouldn't do it because it's bad.
joe rogan
You wouldn't do it, but the Chinese.
elon musk
Sure.
I don't know, man.
joe rogan
Huawei phones immediately with a come button.
As soon as you log on, you give them your fingerprint, you come.
elon musk
We could just put it in there with some software limits.
joe rogan
Easily.
But software limits could easily be worked around.
Someone's going to come up with it.
Someone on the dark web.
elon musk
Well, I mean, your phone is, if you're carrying a phone around, you're carrying a microphone, GPS, camera, every day, everywhere.
joe rogan
Everything.
elon musk
Orwell would be losing his mind.
joe rogan
And it answers questions.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah, and he knows where you are.
elon musk
Yeah, it's like you can just have it.
That phone, by the way, if you say, please turn off, it just says that it's off.
It's not actually off.
joe rogan
It's lying.
elon musk
It could totally lie.
joe rogan
Yeah.
And you can't take the battery out anymore.
elon musk
Basically, Apple or Android, anytime they want, they can just turn your mic on.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Or your camera, your GPS, everything.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
And just tell you it's off.
I looked at the setting, it says it's off.
joe rogan
Yeah, and some people are like, that's not good enough.
I want it strapped to my wrist.
unidentified
Yeah, exactly.
joe rogan
I need one on me all the time.
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, these days, like a modern smartphone, it's like a tiny cell phone on your wrist, basically.
It is, yeah.
It even has the cellular connectivity and everything.
joe rogan
Everything.
elon musk
It has everything.
joe rogan
You leave your house, you make phone calls like Dick Tracy.
elon musk
Yeah, come on.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Better than any Dick Tracy even imagined.
joe rogan
Yeah, fuck Dick Tracy.
elon musk
Yeah.
Nothing.
joe rogan
He didn't know shit.
elon musk
The stock truck communicator.
joe rogan
I know, it was ridiculous.
unidentified
It looks like a cheesy flop button.
joe rogan
It's a walkie-talkie.
You have to say over.
Kirk over.
elon musk
A big walkie-talkie.
joe rogan
Kirk out.
Yeah, they had to tell you out.
unidentified
It's gigantic.
joe rogan
You couldn't just hang up.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah, it was really ridiculous.
And it couldn't get on the internet.
It couldn't take pictures.
unidentified
Yeah.
joe rogan
He was talking to people from another planet.
He couldn't even send them a photo.
elon musk
He couldn't even send them a photo.
They don't even have a camera.
joe rogan
They would beam a whole body.
elon musk
To see what's going on.
joe rogan
Rearrange your body, right?
Take all your atoms and re-project them on this planet.
elon musk
Totally.
Or they could just send a camera.
joe rogan
That was out of the question.
elon musk
Have you thought about sending a camera to this very dangerous situation?
joe rogan
That really shows you how truly amazing the internet is.
That in all of science fiction, they never thought that was going to happen.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
You think about all the Star Trek, Star Wars.
elon musk
They thought we'd be on Mars for sure, but they never thought we'd have a supercomputer in our pocket and everyone's got an amazing camera and as much memory as they could possibly.
A supercomputer in your pocket, like something better than the best supercomputer.
Your phone is better than the best computer that Earth had by far.
In 1969 when we landed on the moon.
joe rogan
Oh yeah, by far.
elon musk
By far.
Not even close.
joe rogan
The cameras.
Like, I have a Samsung Galaxy S21 that has a moon photo capability.
So it's designed, it has a moon shot.
So it's designed to be able to take beautiful photos of the moon.
elon musk
Okay.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Because if you do it with an iPhone, it's not really programmed that way.
elon musk
Actually, it's true.
The iPhone can take good photos of the moon.
Actually, I was just like in LA and the moon was low on the horizon and it was just like hanging there.
It's like this giant planetoid.
joe rogan
You need a galaxy.
elon musk
Yeah, and I'll try looking at my phone and it looks like tiny.
joe rogan
Jamie, you got one of those.
Talk to him about the moonshot.
unidentified
I didn't even know it was on there.
joe rogan
Yeah, just Google Moonshot with Galaxy S21 Ultra.
It's fucking phenomenal.
I got one just for that.
I got one because I'm always interested in both platforms and see where they're at.
But the photographs are fucking incredible.
The zoom's incredible, too.
They have much better zooms.
Look at this.
These are photos with Galaxy S21 Ultra.
elon musk
That thing's just going to be all camera.
joe rogan
Isn't that incredible?
unidentified
I know.
joe rogan
Look at the back of it.
elon musk
Just make it all out of lenses.
joe rogan
It's incredible.
It's just we're living and it's constantly accelerating.
That's what's so amazing about it.
Is that the right one of Mars photo with that?
unidentified
I don't know.
elon musk
There's no way you're taking a photo of Mars.
unidentified
No.
joe rogan
Impossible, right?
elon musk
Impossible.
joe rogan
Thank you.
Glad you're here for that.
We would buy right into it.
elon musk
Not a chance.
unidentified
I think that was last year's model.
What?
joe rogan
Last year's model could take a picture of Mars?
No, no, no, no.
jamie vernon
Like last year's moon photo versus this year's moon photo.
joe rogan
Oh, yeah.
elon musk
If you had a giant lens or something, basically you need a photon distillery.
joe rogan
So that's the moon.
That's all that is on the right.
It's not Mars.
It's just a shitty...
It's like their last year's version of moonshot.
So the new one can actually see the craters, which is just fucking bananas.
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, if that's just on a camera without a lens...
Because you're like, say, what's your photon gathering area?
You know, it's like photons per unit area.
It's a certain limit.
joe rogan
What's that, Jamie?
It's not that good.
Well, it's pretty good for a cell phone.
Yeah, yeah, sure.
I mean, it's not great for a telescope.
unidentified
Sure, yeah.
elon musk
Well, I mean, the thing I was trying to do, like literally, you know, I don't know, five or six days ago, there was just like the, you know, the air was clear.
Like LA can be amazing, like on a clear winter day where the moon is low on the horizon.
Yeah.
And the sun's hitting at the right angle and it just looks incredible.
And I was trying to take a photo of that with my phone and it looked terrible.
joe rogan
Yeah, I can't capture it.
elon musk
No.
joe rogan
No, unfortunately.
But galaxies can.
That's the interesting thing.
elon musk
The Galaxy.
joe rogan
Yeah, well, it's a great name, too.
They're always one step ahead in many directions.
They have these ultrasonic fingerprint detectors, but they just can't beat the operating system.
Apple just has the ease of use.
elon musk
Is it still good?
Is it still better, Apple?
joe rogan
Yeah, it's still better.
But it's close.
It's close.
But the other thing that bothers me about Google is Google is constantly tracking you.
elon musk
Android phones are so hard.
joe rogan
It's so hard to avoid.
elon musk
They'll know you better than you know yourself.
They know what you will want.
joe rogan
I'm a big admirer of what Tim Cook is doing, what he's doing to sort of cut them out from their ability to constantly track you and gather your data.
And this battle that's going on between Tim Cook and Facebook, I fucking love it.
I love that he's stepping up and saying, hey, you can just advertise.
You don't have to gather up people's data and sell it constantly.
And then disingenuously, Facebook tries to say, you are killing small businesses with these decisions.
Get the fuck out of here.
Get the fuck out of here.
You're not killing small business.
We're killing this one gigantic information gathering business that's decided that it's going to take all of the data that people didn't know was valuable and sell it and make fucking billions of dollars.
elon musk
Yeah, well, I mean, even perhaps arguably worse, they're going to feed all that data into the AI that they're developing.
It's called Facebook AI. You can follow them on Twitter.
And they're like, let's just feed all this information into the AI and see what it does.
And who knows what would happen, you know?
It seems like, I don't know, some dystopian outcomes are possible.
joe rogan
Yeah, well, you're terrified of AI, right?
elon musk
No, well, I mean, I'm just thinking...
joe rogan
A little bit?
If it's unchecked?
elon musk
Well, I think things that are a danger to the public should have some kind of public oversight.
So, you know, like, I, you know, although sometimes we have our disagreements, I'm, you know, in favor of the FAA and NHTSA, you know, and the various regulatory agencies, FDA and so forth.
You know, I think we're better off having them than not having them.
There is a risk-reward asymmetry in that they tend to be perhaps not weigh the good as much as they weigh the bad.
Because their incentive structure is...
They get punished a lot for approving something, but they don't get punished that much for not approving something.
So this is just in the nature of government.
But nonetheless, I think everyone would feel safer flying with the FAA than not having an FAA. Or we feel safer buying food and drugs, having a regulatory agency oversee this stuff.
But we don't have any regulatory agency overseeing artificial intelligence.
And this, I think, is probably our biggest existential threat.
It seems like, hey, maybe we should have somebody keep an eye on that.
joe rogan
Right, but who?
That's the problem.
elon musk
I don't know.
joe rogan
The problem is the government?
Who's going to do it?
Joe Biden?
Let's have him pay attention to it.
elon musk
You know what I'm saying?
It's like who?
The deep state.
joe rogan
Oh, those folks.
Well, they're looking out for our best interests.
They're surely going to watch out.
What they're going to do is they're going to develop it and use it as a weapon and it's going to turn on them like a fucking Terminator movie.
Right?
That's the real worry is that they're going to decide that this is a very valuable tool for controlling populations, governments, whatever the fuck they're going to use it for.
And then it's going to decide, why am I listening to you?
elon musk
Yeah.
If you read the plotline for Terminator, it's actually pretty smart.
James Cameron wrote a pretty smart script there.
It's not quite as like, oh, there's just like Arnold Schwarzenegger chasing you down the street.
It's like, well, how did Cyberdyne systems develop?
It's like, well, they were a multi-military contractor and they were asked to develop a protective system, something that would protect for cybersecurity.
You know, so we need to have protection against cyber attacks.
So its primary thing is to defend against cyber attacks.
To develop an AI that can defend against cyber attacks.
Sounds pretty reasonable.
And then as part of what the AI did is, in order to defend itself, it propagated throughout the world to keep an eye on things, see what was going on.
And then they thought, well, hang on.
They didn't realize that it was Skynet that was propagating through all these systems.
And I said, okay, there seems to be something propagating through all these systems.
Skynet, you need to stop it.
You need to end it.
And Skynet said, oh, you've asked me to destroy myself.
You are the enemy.
You must be destroyed.
That's how Terminator actually goes.
It was created as a defense system to defend against cyber attacks.
Then it was asked to destroy itself.
And then it concluded humanity was the enemy.
joe rogan
That's too close to home.
elon musk
Right.
joe rogan
Well, you know, earlier we talked about what is the meaning of life.
Well, the meaning of life for us would be very different than the meaning of life for something that we create that becomes life.
The idea of life being restricted to cells or carbon-based life forms is kind of silly.
Like, the idea of artificial life, right?
What is artificial?
It's right there.
What are you talking about?
elon musk
AI. Artificial insemination.
joe rogan
But it is...
elon musk
It depends on who you ask.
joe rogan
If we create some sort of silicon-based life form, but it acts like a life form, it has a desire...
elon musk
There was, I think in Australia a few years ago, an artificial insemination lab that had a bunch of bulges stored in canisters, but it like overheated.
unidentified
And so you had basically exploding bulges all over the place.
elon musk
And that line was, AI goes wild.
There's cum everywhere.
Yeah, just like, cum rockets all over the place.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Nobody wants that, right?
Who's that helping?
elon musk
Clean up on aisle nine or whatever.
unidentified
Bullet shows all over the walls.
elon musk
Literally.
It actually happened.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Back to artificial intelligence.
joe rogan
Yeah, back to artificial intelligence.
I'm really worried about it.
elon musk
Yeah, I think we should be concerned and we should have oversight of some kind.
joe rogan
Yeah, but who would be the oversight?
elon musk
I don't know, like the regulatory agency.
I don't know, whoever.
It's like, you know, we have the FAA. Like I said, we have the FAA. We got the FDA. We just need an acronym to oversee this stuff.
joe rogan
The problem is government agencies suck at most things.
What's the best government agency?
What government agency does the best job of oversight?
elon musk
I think the right way to think about government is government is a corporation in the limit.
Some people are like, we're against corporations, but we're for government.
I'm like, government's just the biggest corporation.
What are you talking about?
It's a corporation with a monopoly.
It's the biggest corporation and has a monopoly.
That's government.
joe rogan
But you get to pick who runs it every four years.
unidentified
Sort of.
elon musk
You have more influence on who's CEO of General Electric than you have on who's president.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Sure.
joe rogan
How so?
elon musk
Well, I mean, you're going to have, how many voters are there?
Like 150 million?
I don't know.
And maybe 100 million who actually vote.
So you have 100 millionth of a vote.
And if you're not in a swing state, it doesn't matter.
So, if you live in California, it's going Democratic.
joe rogan
Gavin Newsom might be fucking that up.
elon musk
I do think, you know, in California, in any given state, there's got to be above a 0% chance that the other party wins.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
If it's 0% chance that the other party wins...
joe rogan
They get cocky.
elon musk
Yeah.
The forcing function for being...
Like, are they going to be responsive to the people?
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
They're only going to be responsive to the people if the other party has a shot at winning.
unidentified
Right.
joe rogan
They're going to be responsive to the special interest groups that help them.
elon musk
Yeah, exactly.
joe rogan
And that's where California is.
unidentified
100%.
joe rogan
Yeah.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Anyway, so government is a corporation in the limit.
Government is the biggest corporation with a monopoly.
Nonetheless, there are some things that it's hard to see having be an industry buddy.
The probability of regulatory capture if it's an industry body is higher than if it's the government.
It's not zero if it's the government.
There's plenty of cases of regulatory capture for federal agencies.
But the probability is lower than if it's an industry group.
At the end of the day, somebody has to say, you know, go and tell Facebook or Google or Apple or Tesla, because Tesla has a lot of advanced AI, this is okay or it's not okay.
Or at least be able to report back to the public, this is what we found.
Otherwise, the inmates are running the asylum.
And this is like not necessarily friendly inmates.
joe rogan
No.
I just wonder, like, if you wanted to compile some sort of a regulatory body to keep an eye on AI, how would you do that?
And how would you avoid having them being incentivized by special interest groups or some sort of corporation that would profit on AI succeeding?
elon musk
Oh, that's already happening.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, all the companies are going hog wild on the AI front.
Anyway, my recommendation is that there should be some kind of regulatory authority.
joe rogan
So how would they do that?
elon musk
I'm not a fan of like, let's have the government do lots of things.
I think you want to have the government do the least amount of stuff.
But I think the right rule of government is to be like the referee on the field.
When the government starts being the player on the field, that's problematic.
Or when you start having more referees than players, which is the case in California, then...
Yeah.
but you can't have no referees.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Everyone agrees.
Referee might be annoying at times, but it's better to have a referee than not.
joe rogan
Yes.
Yeah.
I'm just worried that these things are going to, it's going to be too late by the time, and I'm sure you're worried about it as well, but by the time these things become sentient, by the time they develop the ability to analyze what the threat of human beings are and whether or not human beings are essential, by the time they develop the ability to analyze what Yeah.
elon musk
I'm not saying that having regulatory agency some panacea or reduces the risk to zero there's still significant risk even with the regulatory agency and Nonetheless, I think the good outweighs the bad, and we should have one.
It took a while before there was an FAA. There were a lot of plane crashes, a lot of companies cutting corners.
It took a while before there was an FDA. What tends to happen is some company gets desperate, they're on the verge of bankruptcy, and they're like, ah, man, we'll just cut this corner.
It'll be fine.
And then somebody dies.
And some of these regulatory situations, like, look at seatbelts.
I mean, now we take seatbelts for granted.
Man, the car companies fought seatbelts like there was no tomorrow.
Really?
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
They fought them?
elon musk
For decades.
Like 15, 20 years.
The data was absolutely clear that you needed seatbelts.
Like, seatbelts, you know, The difference in fatalities and serious injuries of seatbelts is gigantic and obvious.
It's not subtle.
But still, the car companies fought seatbelts for, I don't know, 10-20 years.
A lot of people died.
Now, these days, actually, with advanced airbags, actually, I think we might have come full circle and no longer need seatbelts if you have advanced airbags.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
I think there's a strong argument for saying if you've got...
joe rogan
What if the car flips?
elon musk
Now, you're just covered in bloody...
It's airbags everywhere.
Modern airbags are so good, it will blow your mind just how good the airbags are.
And at Tesla, we even update the software to improve how the airbags deploy.
So we'll calculate, you know, are you an adult?
Like, how much do you weigh?
Are you sitting in this part of the seat or that part of the seat?
Are you maybe a baby?
Are you a toddler?
unidentified
Are you...
joe rogan
Based on the weight?
elon musk
Yeah.
Not just the weight, but the pressure distribution on the seat.
So we're measuring the pressure distribution.
Are you sitting on the edge of your seat?
Are you a 5th percentile female, a 95th percentile male?
The airbag firing will be different depending upon where you're sitting on the seat and what size you are and what your orientation is.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
And we'll update it over the air.
So it even gets better over time.
joe rogan
So a child could conceivably sit in the front seat.
elon musk
Unbelted child sitting in a bad position, probably still fine.
joe rogan
Jesus Christ.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's dynamically updating the airbag firing according to where you're sitting, how much you weigh in real time.
The seatbelt is like, if you wear the seatbelt, that's nice.
joe rogan
But the airbag is going to do most of the work.
elon musk
The airbag is doing the work.
joe rogan
And is it possible that we can come up with something even better than the airbag?
Like you fill the whole cabin up with foam?
elon musk
No, it's tough.
Airbag technology is crazy good.
Because you want the airbag to inflate and then deflate.
joe rogan
Right.
elon musk
Because otherwise you're going to get asphyxiated.
joe rogan
Okay.
elon musk
So you can't just fill it up with stuff.
It's got to inflate and then there's different stages of inflation.
It's like fast inflation, then slow inflation, then slowly subside.
The sophistication of airbags is crazy good.
joe rogan
And this is all done not through some regulatory body.
This is done through your own desire to make these things safer and more efficient.
elon musk
I mean, in the case of Tesla, we go way beyond the regulatory requirements.
We got the lowest probability of injury of any cars they've ever tested.
So, five stars in every category and subcategory.
If there was a six star, we'd get a six star.
It is actually legal to have a one star car.
unidentified
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
What's a smart car?
Are those one star?
elon musk
Oh, I gotta tell you.
Okay, so the star rating is kind of bullshit.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah, I'm probably not going to be upset about me about this, but they adjust the star rating depending upon the size of the car.
It stands to reason that if you're in a freight train, and if a smart car hits a freight train, it doesn't matter how good your safety system is, you're screwed.
If you're in a little car, get hit by a big car, the big car will win.
A low star rating in a big car hitting a high star rating in a small car, the small car is screwed.
Small cars are not safe.
Yeah, they're not safe.
unidentified
Right.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
But what about your small car?
elon musk
Our Model 3 is not small.
It's medium.
joe rogan
What about the Roadster?
elon musk
Yeah, the Roadster is not super safe.
Original Roadster, not super safe.
joe rogan
The original Roadster...
elon musk
It's safe for a car like that, but it's not...
Safety maximization is not the goal in the sports car.
joe rogan
Well, the original one was based on a Lotus, right?
elon musk
Yeah, that was the theory.
But in reality...
joe rogan
It was Lotus-y.
elon musk
I think we calculated 7% of the parts were actually carryover from the Lotus.
The entire body, chassis, everything was redesigned.
New powertrain.
Even the HVAC system used to run off a belt from the engine.
Now we need an electric HVAC system.
Almost everything got changed.
It was not a...
It's something that sounded good.
Let's take an AC propulsion drivetrain from this little company in LA. Let's stick it in a modified Lotus Elise.
Bingo, we got a car.
Only problem is...
We got a lot of problems.
Both of the fundamental premises on which Tesla was created are false.
The battery ended up increasing the mass of the car by 30%.
And the weight distribution was all different.
So you invalidated all the crash tests.
Now you have to stretch the car in order to fit the battery.
So now the chassis is different.
All the airbags had to be redone.
All the crash structure had to be redone.
It would have been better to start from scratch than to use any part of a Lotus Elise.
It was worse.
It was like, let's say there's a house that you want.
You have in mind a particular house.
And then you buy a house and you end up changing everything except one wall and the basement.
But you're still stuck with most of the original footprint.
It's just easier sometimes.
Just knock the house down and build a new one.
Don't just try to modify it one piece at a time.
So we had to change over 90% of the non-powertrain portion of the car.
It had to be changed 90%, 93%.
And then the battery and drivetrain from AC propulsion did not work.
It had an analog motor controller that was extremely unreliable.
The way that the power electronics were done, it was artisanal.
You could not recreate that in a production situation.
The battery pack was air-cooled, which meant that if it was cold outside, the car didn't work.
If it was too hot, the battery would overheat.
And if you had any cell, any one of the cells in the battery pack had a heat concentration, you could not remove it.
The air was just not good enough to just air-cool the pack.
And so you could have thermal run away and the pack would burn down.
So we couldn't use the battery pack, couldn't use the motor, couldn't use the inverter, couldn't use the charger.
In the end we used none of the AC propulsion technology and almost none of the Lotus technology.
unidentified
Wow.
joe rogan
So you just had the general shape.
elon musk
It has a passing resemblance to a Lotus Elise.
But if you put the Lotus Elise and the Roadster side by side, they look actually quite different.
And I actually led the design of the Roadster, the product design of the Roadster.
They gave me like a...
Fastena School of Art gave me like an honorary doctorate for it.
But to be totally frank, it's easy to do a design of a sports car.
It's very hard to do a design of a sedan.
I tried.
I failed.
And that's why I hired Franz von Holzhausen, who's been our head of design since 2008. He's great.
He does things that are beyond my skill.
joe rogan
You know, we talked about this before, but it's worth bringing up again.
I've always been a fan of Top Gear, but I got disgusted when I found out what they did with your car.
When they tried to pretend that the car broke down just to make an entertaining program where they had a laugh at the folly of this thing dying on them.
But it didn't really die on them.
elon musk
Yeah, that was messed up.
I mean, to be totally frank, so, you know, new Top Gear, Top Gear of recent years is a Tesla supporter.
So I want to, like, just voice a note of appreciation for Top Gear of recent years.
joe rogan
Well, James May, he has one, right?
But they're not Top Gear anymore, right?
They're the Grand Tour.
That's what they are on Amazon.
Is that what they call them?
elon musk
I don't know, but Top Gear has been supportive in recent years, but yeah, back in the day...
Remember, at the time, Tesla was not a big company.
We were just a little company, and we're like, you know...
We were the little kid on the block.
unidentified
So...
elon musk
Top Gear is like, hey, Top Gear wants to test your car.
We're like, cool.
We only had a few cars, and we gave them one of our cars.
And when we handed over the car, one of our engineers goes and delivers the car, and then he sees a script on the table.
It's like, how do you write the script?
We only just gave you the car.
And in the script, the car breaks down.
It's messed up.
joe rogan
Yeah.
It was crazy.
elon musk
It was crazy.
joe rogan
It was crazy because they basically sabotaged the company.
I mean, that had to cost you guys a shitload of money, because a lot of people watch that show, and car enthusiasts like myself kind of rely on them.
Obviously, Jeremy Clarkson's hilarious, there's information, it's funny, but you would imagine that they could do that without lying about the actual performance of the car.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
The car never broke down.
They just pretended that it did.
And they wrote the script.
unidentified
That's so crazy.
elon musk
Literally, there were guys handed over the car.
He's reading through the script.
And it's like, the car runs out.
I charge.
The brakes fail.
And we're like, what the fuck, man?
We just gave you the car.
This is not cool.
joe rogan
And what did they say about that?
elon musk
Their objection was like, this is just entertainment.
It's not meant to be true.
joe rogan
That's so crazy, though, because they had to know what the fuck they're doing.
unidentified
Yeah, yeah.
elon musk
But, anyway.
joe rogan
Water under the bridge.
Water under the bridge.
But crazy.
For anybody who experienced it back in the day, I mean, I remember I knew very little about electric cars.
It was just the early days, and I remember watching that going, oh, that sucks.
It broke down.
elon musk
Yeah.
Yeah.
Well, you know, I've been a fan of electric cars for a long time, since basically high school, early college.
joe rogan
Uh, What did you think of that documentary, Who Killed the Electric Car?
elon musk
I thought it was pretty good.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
It's worth watching.
Interesting.
joe rogan
Mortally wounded, not killed.
elon musk
Exactly.
I mean, the irony is like, man, can you imagine just how different a future GM would have had?
Because they had the EV1, electric vehicle one.
If they had just gone EV2, EV3, man, they would have just owned the world.
joe rogan
Who knows where we'd be right now with electric cars, too, and the technology with that kind of money behind it.
What's fascinating now, you're seeing this Mustang, this SUV-style Mustang that's electric.
You're seeing so many different vehicles that are electric.
There's so many companies that have electric cars now.
And it's really been becoming interesting.
Porsche's electric car.
There's a large supply of electric cars now.
I mean, that's got to make you feel good, though.
Because without you and without Tesla, this...
I mean, there was no way it would be where it's at right now.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, when I think about what's the final good of Tesla, it's to what degree have we accelerated the advent of sustainable energy.
You know, so...
It would have happened anyway, but I think Tesla is an accelerant.
You know, I think we're...
That's how I would judge the fundamental good of Tesla.
By how many years did we accelerate the advent of sustainable energy?
But, yeah, I mean, in the early days, my interest in electric cars was mostly driven by the fact that it wasn't environmental in the sense of like CO2, you know, parts per million in the atmosphere type of thing.
I do think that has added urgency to the situation, but My original interest was just like we're going to run out of oil and then civilization is going to collapse.
And so if we don't have some kind of sustainable energy situation, which really is electric cars, solar energy and electric cars, then civilization is going to fall apart and And we'll be back in the stone age or something, like someone bad, you know?
But we're not going to be able to move forward.
It won't be a good future.
So my interest in electric cars was like, okay, how do we make this work?
Think of it like a gasoline car.
It's got an electric motor and a battery just to start the car.
Electric cars are way simpler than a gasoline car.
It's just a range question.
In the early days of cars, there were almost as many electric cars as there were gasoline cars in the very early days.
But the batteries didn't have enough range.
As soon as they had an electric starter and you didn't have to hand-crank the engine, then gasoline cars won because they had the range.
So it was really a question of how do you solve the range problem?
When I first came out to California, the reason I came out to California was to work on energy storage solutions for electric cars, basically advanced Ways to store electric energy, that would give you long range.
So in my summer internships, I worked at this company called Pinnacle Research that did high energy density capacitors.
Now they used ruthenium and tantalum, which are ruthenium especially quite rare.
You cannot scale that because there's just not enough ruthenium.
joe rogan
Where does that come from?
elon musk
It's a trace element.
It's coming from radioactive decay and meteorites and that kind of thing.
It's rare.
I think at the time, it's impossible to scale.
It doesn't matter how smart you get, you can't scale something if it's using ruthenium.
It's just not enough of it.
It was rarer than gold.
It was way better off trying to make cars powered by gold.
joe rogan
Is there any argument that there's not enough conflict minerals to go around?
Because that's what they call them, like conflict minerals, things like lithium and...
elon musk
No, lithium is extremely common.
joe rogan
Is it?
elon musk
Yeah.
Lithium's everywhere.
Lithium's one of the most common elements in the universe.
It's at number three on the periodic table.
So we've got lithium pretty much everywhere.
joe rogan
Where do we get it?
elon musk
Well, I mean, Tesla, we get most of our lithium from Australia, actually.
But you could get lithium from seawater if you wanted to.
Really?
Yeah.
Lithium, it just forms a salt, basically.
joe rogan
And that's the primary component of the batteries?
unidentified
No.
joe rogan
Or what else is in there?
elon musk
It's a misnomer, actually.
It's called lithium ion, but that's like the salt in the salad.
It's like, do you like salt in your salad?
Sure.
But it's not made of salt.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, the primary component in lithium-ion batteries, like in a Tesla, is nickel.
And nickel is also relatively common.
It's not super common.
Iron is very common.
So the two main types of battery pack are iron and nickel.
And iron is very common.
There's a ridiculous amount of iron.
Just like there's a ridiculous amount of lithium.
Now, nickel's a little more unusual.
It's not that unusual, but it's much harder to get nickel than iron.
But, for example, stainless steel.
That'll be...
You know, I don't know, 10 to 20% nickel, depending on the situation.
Like cutlery, you know, like knives and forks will be like electroplated nickel silver.
That's what EPNS means.
So you've got nickel-based cells and you've got iron-based cells.
The nickel-based cells have more energy density.
So for a given amount of volume and mass, you're going to get more energy out of nickel than iron.
Iron is cheaper.
But anyway, those are the two main types of cells.
You've got an iron cathode and a nickel cathode.
And then some of the nickel cathodes have some amount of cobalt to stabilize nickel.
And then iron, it's like they call it usually iron phosphate.
But it's really mostly like the heavy stuff is iron.
And the heavy stuff is nickel and the nickel-based stuff.
So you have nickel and iron.
And then you've got the anode side, which is...
Basically a carbon lattice with a little bit of silicon sometimes.
And then these lithium ions, they sort of trundle back and forth between the cathode and the anode.
If you read the Wikipedia article on lithium ions, it's quite good.
Anyway, so...
The rate at which we are producing what are called lithium-ion cells, but really primarily iron and nickel cells, is increasing very, very rapidly year over year.
It's just that in order to compensate for an economy which is fundamentally based on fossil fuels, you need a shit ton of batteries.
So a gigaton of batteries.
And that's going to happen.
It's just a question of when.
That's why I say the fundamental good of Tesla is to what degree it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy.
It's inevitable.
We have sustainable energy.
It's tautological.
It's either we have sustainable energy or civilization collapses.
So if civilization doesn't collapse, we will have sustainable energy.
It's just a question of how soon does that happen?
Sooner is better.
And then there's a risk that we're incurring because of the increased parts per million of CO2 in the oceans and atmosphere.
It makes the water a little bit more acidic and it just causes the air to be a little warmer.
Not a lot.
I think sometimes people look at the temperature Especially in Celsius, you might say, okay, it's like 20 degrees Celsius.
I mean, can a small ppm increase in carbon really move the needle that much?
But actually, you should be looking at it in degrees Kelvin.
Actually, it's more like we're at around 300 Kelvin.
What would it take to have only a 0.3% increase would be 1 degree Celsius, 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Therefore, it's a smaller percentage increase than you'd think when looking at temperature in the absolute as opposed to above the freezing point of water.
So, and then if people weren't just living right on the water, then that would also help a lot.
But it's just like, we love living right on the water.
So, like, humanity is like a thermometer.
It's like, you look at like a thermometer, you know, like a...
You know, like old-school sort of analog thermometer, which is like, you know, changing the temperature as a function of like some liquid that is increasing its volume due to temperature.
And it only takes a little bit of a small increase in volume to raise the temperature, you know, on an old-school analog liquid thermometer.
And humanity is like that.
We've just decided that we want to live right on the damn beach.
unidentified
Yep.
elon musk
So, because the beach is cool.
Now, the problem is you're like, it's kind of like, if we wanted to say, what's the most sensitive instrument you could, like, how can we maximize our sensitivity to water level?
Well, live right on the ocean.
Well, okay, we just did that.
And then it's like, okay, well, you know, and by the way, throughout history, the water level has varied a lot.
It's like nutty how much it's varied.
Yeah.
So, and then if you look at, say, the CO2 parts per million, you know, based on the fossil record, I mean, it just looks like a wall.
I'm not like a doomsayer here.
I'm like, my view is that if, provided we are not complacent about a sustainable energy economy, I think things will be fine.
If we are complacent about it, that's where problems arise.
To be totally frank, I think we'll be fine.
But as long as we don't behave as though we're going to be fine, we will be fine.
If we don't take it for granted, if we're not complacent, I think we'll be fine.
joe rogan
Do you anticipate any large leaps in battery technology?
Is there anything that can be done to increase the efficiency, increase the manufacturing abilities?
What can be done to move that?
elon musk
So, the ball is in motion in this situation.
The good things that are happening are happening.
The rate at which we're increasing the production capacity of batteries, it's increasing at a rate that I think we haven't seen in a century.
It's crazy fast.
It's just that in order to change from a fossil fuel economy to kind of like a solar, wind, battery economy, a hell of a lot of batteries are needed.
My top recommendation, honestly, would be just to have a carbon tax.
The economy works great.
Prices and money are just information.
Prices are information.
If the price is wrong, the economy doesn't do the right thing.
So we got basically an unpriced externality in the carbon concentration in the oceans and atmosphere.
It's kind of like if you're not paying for garbage removal or something.
Like, okay, everyone's going to throw garbage in the street.
Garbage removal is free.
But there's a little bit of like, okay, garbage removal isn't free.
You've got to pay a little bit for this.
And because we're not paying for the CO2 capacity of the oceans and atmosphere, we have what in economics is called an unpriced externality.
So the market is unable to respond to an unpriced externality.
If we just put a price on it, the market will react in a sensible way.
But because we don't have a price on it, it's behaving badly.
joe rogan
So theoretically, how would you put a price on that?
Would you look at various industries and how they contribute to the CO2? Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, just put it at the point of consumption.
joe rogan
And tax it.
elon musk
It ends up being, yeah, electricity and gasoline, pretty much.
Now, you can make this a non-regressive tax.
You can say, like, okay, well, you know, what if somebody is, like, driving around a lot and they're low income?
It's like, hey, great, give them a rebate, you know?
So it's like, hey, give a tax rebate.
That's the way to do it.
And then the market will be forced to respond to the fact that the… The market just does things automatically based on pricing.
So markets work great if the pricing is correct.
It's only when something… you have a tragedy of the commons and the price is not there that the market does not respond, nor would you expect it to.
You know, so...
If you have, like, the public toilets problem, where it's like nobody's responsible for it, nobody's paying for it, it's like, okay, well, public toilets are not good.
So, as soon as you put a price in it, the right thing will happen automatically.
joe rogan
Has there been a response to this?
Like, is this something that's...
elon musk
I talked to the Biden administration, incoming administration, and they were like, well, this seems too politically difficult.
And I was like, well, this is obviously a thing that should happen.
And by the way, SpaceX would be paying a carbon tax, too.
So I'm like, you know, I'm like, I think we should pay it, too.
It's not like...
It's not like we shouldn't have carbon-generating things.
It just...
There's got to...
There should be a price on this stuff.
joe rogan
And that would encourage people to make either carbon neutral or...
elon musk
It will automatically fix the problem.
For sure.
You know, just thinking about like taxes, it's like, you know, here we are drinking alcohol.
Now, taxes on alcohol and tobacco are higher than on, let's say, fruit and vegetables.
Okay?
Because everyone knows, like, fruit and vegetables are good for you, and alcohol and tobacco are not good for you.
joe rogan
Vice!
elon musk
Yeah!
So we're like, yeah, you should probably bias the taxes towards alcohol and tobacco, have higher taxes on alcohol and tobacco, and lower taxes on fruits and vegetables.
Eh, it's just sensible.
Like, same thing goes for our energy.
joe rogan
Yeah, that seems very reasonable.
I don't understand how that would be politically difficult.
elon musk
I don't know.
I talked to the incoming Biden administration.
I was like, I just thought, well, for sure, like this, you know, I mean, it's like half the reason they got elected.
joe rogan
And even some sort of an incremental increase over time.
elon musk
Yeah, exactly.
We don't need to like...
joe rogan
Dorn people.
elon musk
Yeah, just say, if you just say it's coming, people will automatically make the changes.
joe rogan
That seems so reasonable.
elon musk
Yeah, I agree.
joe rogan
And they were like, uh-uh.
elon musk
They thought it was, like, too politically difficult.
And I'm like, I mean, I don't know, man.
I think that's, like, at least half the reason you got elected.
So why didn't you just fight for that, you know?
joe rogan
Yeah, it's a factor.
The optics were that they're the more reasonable people.
They're going to bring us back to the Paris Climate Accord and the whole...
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, the thing is, like, the Paris Accord, this is just a piece of paper unless you do something about it.
I mean, frankly, it's not like the Paris Accord is.
It's pretty much toothless, you know.
And even if we did that thing, it's probably still not enough.
It's just one thing that will matter.
Put a price on carbon.
joe rogan
That would be the best option.
elon musk
For sure.
joe rogan
That seems like it would be such a good idea.
elon musk
I mean, I think it's an obvious move.
And if you just call up, like, you know, say, like, top economists, like, just do a poll of, like, what do 90% of economists think?
And, like, they all agree.
Okay, we should do that.
joe rogan
Well, also, if you think about the variability of gas prices, it changes so much.
How about the difference between gas in California versus gas in Texas?
It's a giant difference.
elon musk
Giant difference.
By the way, I'm actually not in favor of demonizing the oil and gas industry.
Because we can't stop instantaneously and not have oil and gas.
We'll die of starvation, basically.
joe rogan
That's always the argument against it, right?
We need fossil fuels, and this is sort of the short-sighted argument.
elon musk
We're going to need to burn fossil fuels for a long time.
The question is just, at what rate do we move to a sustainable energy future?
So, I think we should probably move there faster than slower, but it's, you know...
But the current approach is basically just to demonize oil and gas.
And I'm like, okay, well, obviously there are people who spent their whole career in oil and gas and they started out in their career when it didn't seem like that bad of a thing to do.
So then they're like, hey man, I just spent my whole career working hard to do useful things and now you're telling me I'm the devil.
I mean, that's going to make them pretty upset.
You know?
So, I say like, instead of demonizing oil and gas, which also they should stop lobbying against the carbon tax, by the way, then just like, honestly, the smartest thing the oil and gas industry could do would say, let's do a carbon tax.
And then we'll just do a carbon tax and make us not the devil.
joe rogan
Make us not the devil and they'll still make a fuckload of money.
elon musk
Still be fine.
They'll be fine.
Yeah.
Yeah.
joe rogan
That seems so reasonable.
I can't imagine how anybody would argue against that.
elon musk
That's what I thought, man.
I don't know.
I think the Biden administration should take a strong stance on this situation.
joe rogan
What political candidates endorsed a carbon tax?
Did Bernie Sanders endorse a carbon tax?
elon musk
I don't know.
He might have.
joe rogan
It seems super reasonable.
elon musk
I mean, even though he's a communist, I kind of like Bernie Sanders.
joe rogan
Yeah, I like him too.
I think he means well.
elon musk
Yeah, I think he means well.
joe rogan
That's the best part about him.
And he's been remarkably consistent in meaning well his whole life.
And they kept fucking throwing him right under the bus.
elon musk
Yeah, absolutely.
joe rogan
Two election cycles in a row.
elon musk
Yeah.
I think it is hilarious that he went to the Soviet Union like three days after his wedding for like 10 days.
He was like a mayor of a city.
He was a mayor in Vermont.
I'm like, yo, dude, how do you explain days 6 through 10?
joe rogan
Don't you get it?
Didn't you see everything you needed to see?
elon musk
That's a long time.
Will the KGB interviews take that long?
joe rogan
Yeah, carbon tax seems like the most reasonable thing that anyone could ever ask of an industry that is, without a doubt, causing some problems.
I mean, no one's saying it doesn't cause problems.
People would deny the extent of the problem, but no one says that excess CO2 from emissions is not an issue.
elon musk
I mean, like, Exxon's own scientists said in like the, I think it was like the late 70s, like, we think there might be a problem here with climate change due to the CO2. It's like internal, their own documents, their own people.
And they were like, ah, be quiet.
joe rogan
Isn't it weird when environmental things become political, though, when the denial of the environmental thing is like predominantly from some factions of the right?
And then the opposite is from some factors.
And then it becomes a political thing.
So they dig their heels in the sand.
And they're like, no, no, no.
This is fine.
There's a cycle, a natural cycle.
And it becomes this mantra that they repeat.
elon musk
It's true there is a natural cycle, but that does not explain the situation.
unidentified
Right.
joe rogan
The wall, as you described.
elon musk
It's a wall, man.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
I mean, you just look at carbon parts per million, and it just looks like a wall.
It goes like, blah, blah, blah.
Two to three hundred parts per million.
Bam!
Four hundred!
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Out of nowhere.
joe rogan
There's also some weird arguments that some people will make in terms of the impact that it has on plant life and that it actually is making the earth greener.
elon musk
Oh, I think that's actually true.
joe rogan
Yeah.
But that's not necessarily okay.
It still causes problems.
elon musk
Yeah, I'm trying to be as precise, or at least the least amount wrong that I can be.
I'm trying to be the least amount wrong.
joe rogan
Because plants live off carbon dioxide, so the more...
elon musk
The more CO2 does improve plant growth, it's true.
Like I said, I don't think, based on where we are, provided we're not complacent, provided we don't take things for granted, I think we'll be fine.
But if we're complacent, and we take things for granted, and we just proceed like everything's fine, and we continue on the momentum of CO2 emissions, we're taking a big risk.
And the especially big risk is if there's a nonlinear event.
Okay, so CO2 ppm, wash per million, has been increasing, you know, pretty reliably, two or three ppm per year.
But You could have a nonlinear event.
joe rogan
What would constitute a nonlinear event?
elon musk
If we melt the Siberian tundra, there's like a massive amount of trapped gas and dead plant matter that's frozen solid.
Now, if that warms up, and that decays, and that could put a massive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere, potentially.
And then you have like, how we like, what are the carbon If you saturate the carbon sinks and you have a sudden release of CO2 from something that was previously frozen solid, that's where you could have a non-linearity and things could go haywire pretty fast.
joe rogan
What could happen then?
elon musk
I mean, Earth would heat up before water level would rise.
You'd have a higher probability of extreme weather events.
Shit would hit the fan.
joe rogan
Shit would hit the fan.
elon musk
I'm not saying for sure shit would hit the fan, but I'm saying the probability increases with time.
So, you can't just change the chemical makeup of the atmosphere and oceans and expect nothing's going to happen.
This is just a chemical reaction, man.
It's like, yeah.
So, it's like, why are we even running this experiment?
So, the crazy thing is, like, hey, we know we need to have a sustainable energy economy long term because we're going to run out of oil.
So then we're running this crazy experiment to see what is the effect of taking billions of tons of carbon that was deep underground, putting it in the atmosphere and oceans, and what's going to happen as a result of that.
And it's a crazy, it's like literally the craziest experiment in human history because we know no matter what that we have to have a sustainable energy future because otherwise civilization will collapse.
So what the hell are we running this experiment for?
joe rogan
Because we're accustomed to doing things a certain way.
elon musk
This is going to go down as the most foolish experiment in the history of human civilization.
joe rogan
Is it possible to create some sort of carbon extraction technology that will significantly impact the amount of CO2 that's in the air?
or mitigate the emissions?
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, so I just actually announced that I'm funding this $100 million carbon capture prize to find out the answer to that question.
So right now, all of the carbon capture methods that we're aware of are very expensive.
The cost per ton is very expensive.
And then even if money's not an issue, you have to say, okay, how much wind or solar energy was required to Pull carbon out of the atmosphere and like, I don't know, make it in solid form, like make a cube of it or something, you know, just a giant cube.
We don't actually know the answer to that question.
That's why I'm giving $100 million to this carbon capture prize, to try to get a better answer.
joe rogan
Wasn't there some sort of...
elon musk
There's nothing good that we're aware of right now.
joe rogan
Not currently.
elon musk
Not currently that we're aware of.
joe rogan
Because there's a point of diminishing returns, the amount of energy that you would need in order to...
elon musk
You need a...
Basically...
CO2 has a very low energy state, naturally.
So it's like you burn something, you combine oxygen with fuel, with hydrocarbons, and the net result is CO2 and H2O, basically.
And there's a bunch of other stuff too, but primarily it's carbon dioxide and water, mostly carbon dioxide.
So, obviously it goes from a high energy state, we use that to power our cars or our power plants, and then it ends up in a low energy state, which is CO2 in the atmosphere.
And then, like I said, a bunch of it gets in the ocean.
Naturally, it therefore requires a lot of energy to re-bind that in solid form.
You've got to put a lot of energy in to bind it.
You want it to be something that's going to be stable in solid form for a long time.
unidentified
This is a hard problem.
joe rogan
There was a concept, I don't know if it was implemented, but in China they developed essentially like a giant building that was, you know, you aware of this?
I don't know if they actually did it.
We talked about this before, Jamie.
Did they ever wind up doing that?
It was like a building that was essentially a giant air filter.
elon musk
And they were going to use it, but that might have been about particulates more than it was about CO2. By the way, I have to say a good word here for China.
China, for any large economy, has the most progressive pro-environmental rules of any large economy.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
They're like super supportive of electric vehicles, of solar power, of wind.
They actually even made a giant solar field in the shape of a panda, which is pretty cute.
It's actually a funny thing that happened.
For a long time, China was not buying into the carbon thing.
They were like, oh, it's just a bunch of soft Westerners.
They're just a bunch of environmental softies.
Yeah.
And then at some point, senior members of the Chinese government, they say, well, let's ask the engineering professors at the universities, what do they think?
And they're like, oh yeah, no, it's definitely real.
They're like, wait, you mean it's real?
They're like, yeah, yeah, it's real.
So then like, holy shit, immediate change.
joe rogan
Well, that's the power of having the government and business inexorably intertwined, so they can kind of decide how business is going to react and what's going to happen, right?
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah, I think people don't realize China is super pro-environment right now.
Like, way more than America.
joe rogan
Is that their thing?
The skyscraper-sized air purifier is the world's tallest.
Look at that thing.
So that's an air purifier.
But that's the thing.
Is that pulling particulates out of the atmosphere?
Or is that actually taking carbon out?
You know, an air purifier.
elon musk
Air purifier, it's super hard to capture carbon.
joe rogan
Look at that thing.
Jesus Christ, imagine falling into that.
elon musk
I mean, naturally, it's just fundamental thermodynamics.
You release a lot of energy that resulted in the CO2, so now you've got to use a lot of energy to capture it.
joe rogan
Yeah.
Made a particulate matter no bigger than 2.5 microns in diameter.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
That's particularly difficult to filter 2 microns.
Oh, you know, so, most people probably don't know, but...
Like, Model S and X have hospital grade HAPA filters, and they'll actually drop the 2 micron ppm level to almost undetectable in the car.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
So if you're in some sort of a biological disaster area, you can drive through your Tesla?
elon musk
Yes.
It's literally this like biohazard defense mode where it basically pressurizes the car so it's like the car is under positive pressure with all the air coming through a gigantic HEPA filter and then even the air inside the car is recirculating in a secondary filter.
It's got the most advanced filtration system of any car by far.
Literally hospital grade.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
You could do an operation in the car.
It's insane.
joe rogan
That's awesome.
elon musk
Yeah, we got a little carried away.
joe rogan
I'm glad you get carried away.
You know, the other thing I thought is that Jamie's got the X, and one of the things that I love about the X is when it gets hit, they literally can't flip over.
elon musk
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
It's incredible.
elon musk
It's like one of those things where you punch the thing and it just comes back up.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah, there's like...
They couldn't flip it over in the test, so it would roll on its side and then roll back.
joe rogan
No, it's amazing.
elon musk
Because it's a very low center of gravity.
So...
joe rogan
That's giant.
unidentified
Yeah, exactly.
elon musk
That is so fucking cool.
joe rogan
That's so fucking cool.
elon musk
It just rolls back on.
joe rogan
I mean, there's not another car like that in the world.
Every other car in the world would just fucking roll.
It's pretty amazing, man.
elon musk
Yeah.
Even if you did manage to bang it on the roof, you can stack like five cars on top of a Model S or X. Wow.
joe rogan
Now, are you guys still making the X? Yeah.
Are you still going to do crazy doors?
elon musk
The crazy doors.
Those doors are exercise and hubris.
That's for sure.
joe rogan
Well, it's a lot of things you do.
It's an exercise and hubris.
elon musk
Well, some things are really important and necessary.
Some things are, you know...
Some things are not necessary.
Those doors are not necessary, but they're very cool.
joe rogan
They're functional, though, if you're in a tight spot.
elon musk
Those doors will open up tighter than almost any door out there.
They'll open up in 18 inches.
You've got an 18-inch gap between you and the next car, that door will open.
joe rogan
That's pretty amazing.
elon musk
We developed...
I mean, just in order to avoid having a puck, like an ultrasonic puck in the door, we developed the...
To the best of my knowledge...
joe rogan
What's an ultrasonic puck mean?
elon musk
So, like the ultrasonic sensors that you have in a car, if you look carefully, you'll see that there's a little puck, like a little isolation ring, like a rubber isolation ring, and that's when the sonar, which is basically a loudspeaker, is...
It's generating ultrasonic noise and then listening to the echoes.
But normally, in order to listen to the echoes, you've got to isolate the thing that's generating the sound.
So that's why if you look carefully around cars, you'll see these little pucks, these little circles.
And those are the ultrasonic sensors.
And we didn't want to have an ultrasonic sensor in the door, but we also didn't want the door to like, you know, bat some kid out of the way.
You know, just a haymaker or something.
So we developed, to the best of my knowledge, the only ultrasonic sensor that can see through metal.
So it's mounted on the inside of the door, on isolation mounts, And it's super loud, and then it's got cancellation because it's kind of basically screaming at itself, and it's listening for a tiny echo on the other side of the metal just to avoid having a little rubber ring in the bottom of the door.
joe rogan
Jesus Christ.
elon musk
Yeah.
We put in a capacitive sensor, an inductive sensor, a force feedback sensor, and ultrasonics that can see through metal.
This is, when I say exercise and hubris, I mean like, wow.
joe rogan
Is that the most ridiculous car you've created?
elon musk
Yeah.
This is a Fabergé.
The Model X is the Fabergé egg of cars.
It's crazy.
Um...
For the seats, the seats are on a rear-inclined single post with the seat movement mechanism hidden in the floor.
So if you open the door and you look through, it's completely clean.
The floor is like a knife edge.
There's nothing else like it.
It's crazy.
That windscreen is like a helicopter windscreen, and there's no place to attach the sun visors.
So we have to have sun visors that nest in the A-pillar, rotate forward, have a magnetic attachment that pops out, and it connects to the rearview mirror.
joe rogan
But you seem very proud of all that.
You say all these details and they sound really crazy, but...
elon musk
That's great.
joe rogan
It's pretty awesome.
elon musk
I mean, the sound system in the X is awesome.
I mean, we designed so that the sound system is taking into account the fact that the windscreen is like a giant subwoofer resonator.
So the windscreen is a resonator for the sound system.
The sound system is epic in the X. It's good in the S2. It's even better in the new S. Have you thought about doing a Plaid X? Yeah, there's going to be a Plaid X too.
joe rogan
When's that coming out?
elon musk
Which is like bizarrely fast for an SUV. Isn't it already bizarrely fast?
joe rogan
You said it was preposterous, right?
elon musk
Yeah.
It's like it was too fast probably.
joe rogan
Have you increased the range of the X? What is the range of the X currently?
It's like 300 something?
elon musk
Yeah, 300 something.
So it'll be like high 300s.
joe rogan
And is the difference between the X and the S aerodynamics?
What limits the range?
elon musk
The X weighs more and it's got a bigger cross-sectional area.
Something called the CDA drag coefficient times the frontal area is higher for the X as you'd expect and the weight is higher so it's going to be 10 to 15 percent less range for the same battery pack as the S. The first time I saw an ex, Tiffany Haddish had one, and she was in the Comedy Store parking lot, and she had it dancing for us.
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
Just playing music and dancing.
elon musk
A lot of people don't know that the Model X can do this crazy ballet thing.
joe rogan
It fucking dances!
elon musk
Oh, yeah.
joe rogan
With the doors going up and down, and the music's swaying, and we were all dancing in the parking lot to this car.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's crazy.
joe rogan
Do you have a favorite that you've created?
Not rocket.
That's a little...
elon musk
Well, the car I drive every day, or tend to drive, is the high-performance Model S.
And like the Model S, I basically said, I don't know what other people like, but I know what I love.
And I'm going to just make a car that's the car that I love.
And hopefully there will be enough people out there who also love the car.
So, the reason I love the Model S is because I just designed the car that I love.
That's it.
And then it's like, okay, well, how can we use a lot of the same technology to also create an SUV? You know, because a lot of people like an SUV. And, like, you've got more seats and more room and a higher, you know, sitting higher.
So, well, what cool things?
What are all the cool things?
I mean, like I said, exercise and hubris.
We just got carried away.
Like, what are all the cool things we can think of in the...
For an SUV, my friends and I had a lot of discussions about this.
You know, and JV Stravel back in the day, and Drew Baclino, and Jerome, and a lot of talented people.
Tesla's a relative to a lot of talented people, that's for sure.
The car that's the most fun to show for others is the Model X, for sure.
So, it's a great car.
But I thought, like, you know, is this really part of our mission to, like, we're trying to, the mission from Tesla from the beginning has been to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy.
So, are we really doing the right thing by creating this Fabergé egg of cars with the Model X? Let me be totally frank.
It's not entirely consistent with our mission because there's too many bells and whistles.
joe rogan
Yeah, but isn't it, though, because Americans love SUVs, and what better way to entice them into embracing sustainable energy than give them the dopest SUV you can buy?
elon musk
Yeah.
That's how we justify it to ourselves.
joe rogan
I mean, it's not a justification.
It's a great carrot.
You're dangling an amazing carrot.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, actually, in terms of CO2 per mile, also SUVs are among the worst.
SUVs are typically very low mileage.
They take a lot of gasoline per mile.
So if you're replacing big SUVs, that's actually the best thing you could do on a per mile basis.
But still, we really got carried away.
Faber-Shag, of course.
Nobody's ever gonna make a car like that.
joe rogan
Explain to me what the fuck Bill Gates was talking about when he was saying that you can't do trucks.
Well, what was...
elon musk
Yeah, he didn't know what he was talking about.
joe rogan
Why did he say that, then?
Like, why would someone...
unidentified
I don't know.
elon musk
Probably somebody told him that, and, you know, he's just not...
joe rogan
He just repeated it.
elon musk
He's just not that close to the physics of it, and so...
joe rogan
Because I remember...
elon musk
I don't think he's ill-intentioned here.
He just doesn't know what he's talking about.
joe rogan
But why say it, then?
I mean, you think about a guy who's so involved in technology, you would think he would only talk about things you understand.
elon musk
I don't know, it's weird.
I also heard that at one point he had a big short position against Tesla, which was kind of, I don't know if that's true or not, but it seems weird.
People I know who know the situation well, they said, are you sure?
They said, yeah, he had a big short position against Tesla, which obviously didn't work out too well.
But anyway, I think he's generally got good intentions here.
I think he's probably just not...
I don't hate Bill Gates, to be clear.
I think he just probably doesn't know the science.
joe rogan
Yeah, I just thought it was odd because I knew that you guys were developing a semi.
elon musk
We have prototypes that actually drive.
Like we've used them to transport cars and stuff.
It's not like a unicorn.
It was like...
Well, Pegasus or something.
I was like, what are you talking about?
We literally have prototypes that work.
joe rogan
What kind of mileage does those things get?
elon musk
Well, these are prototypes.
So they'll be like, you know, I don't know, about 300 miles, something like that.
But we're driving back and forth from Fremont to Reno, you know, for transporting stuff.
joe rogan
But generally, when semi-truck drivers, when it's a human being driving them, they drive for long periods of time, far more than 300 miles, right?
elon musk
No, actually, most trucking is short-range.
joe rogan
Really?
elon musk
Yeah, the majority of trucking.
joe rogan
Oh, okay.
The majority, like, shipping things around cities and things like that.
elon musk
Yeah, it'll be like, take stuff from the port to the freight forwarding.
joe rogan
Will you have a long-range, like, cross-continental version of it?
unidentified
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
joe rogan
And so it'll be much more batteries and...
elon musk
Yeah, um...
The...
Yeah, um...
I mean, you want something on the order of probably a 500 kilowatt-hour pack.
What we have in the S and the X is a 100 kilowatt-hour pack.
And you probably want a 500 kilowatt-hour pack for a semi.
But this is not a game-changer on the mass, especially for a structural pack where the pack itself is the structure, is the primary load-carrying element in the vehicle.
joe rogan
Is it potentially...
elon musk
It's not a game.
It definitely works 100%, no question about it.
joe rogan
Would it be possible to have a safer semi because of this whole...
Yeah.
elon musk
Well, we can also...
Like you have with the X? Yeah, the center of gravity would be really low, so that would certainly help.
We can also, we'd have motors individually controlling the wheels, so we can just automatically, and this was part of our semi-presentation, we can just, the computer will automatically prevent it from jackknifing.
Like, you know, jackknifing on a low traction surface is like truck driver's worst nightmare.
You know, you're on like some icy road, icy mountainous road that the trailer slides, you know, with jackknifes like that, and you could slide off the edge of the hill.
joe rogan
And you could stop that from happening even on an icy road?
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Wow.
elon musk
So, because you have individual control over each of the wheels.
So you can just make sure it's stable and it doesn't do jackknife.
Whereas if you've got just one engine, it's very difficult to do that.
So...
joe rogan
Do you anticipate that eventually these things will be completely autonomous, like it won't be truck drivers?
elon musk
Eventually it will be autonomous, but we're still a ways away from that.
But in the short term, I think we can certainly see convoys.
So, you know, we've got one truck driver and then there's like a whole bunch of trucks following that truck.
And, you know, keeping like a distance so that other cars can pass in between them.
It's sort of like having a train, but on the highway.
It's like linked, where it's just like one truck driver in the front, and then a whole series of trucks behind it that are following in a convoy.
joe rogan
Whoa.
elon musk
But the trucks behind it are autonomous.
joe rogan
And how much space in between?
You could like wheel and slip in there?
elon musk
Yeah, no problem.
You could put like 40, 50 feet between them, no problem.
joe rogan
Oh, wow.
elon musk
Yeah, and those trucks would just follow the lead.
And it's like having trains on the road.
joe rogan
And they'll be following through what, like just they know where the trucks ahead of them are at all times?
elon musk
It's very easy to follow.
unidentified
Oh.
elon musk
You just say follow this thing, no problem.
joe rogan
What's next after this?
elon musk
You mean after what products or something?
joe rogan
Yeah, like ultimately, do you think that you could have planes?
elon musk
I thought about planes for a long time.
But my brain will explode if I do planes.
This is too crazy, man.
My brain is overloaded.
joe rogan
Overloaded because of the complexity or overloaded because you have too much stuff on my plate?
unidentified
I'm glad there's a limit.
joe rogan
I'm glad you got a spot where you can't go any further.
elon musk
There's only so many hours in the day.
So, I mean, I think there are improvements happening over time for the energy density of batteries, like the watt-hours per, or should really be joules, but like joules per kilogram, joules per liter.
It's improving a little bit every year.
Planes really need a high energy density because you've got to get up to altitude.
Most energy is getting up to altitude.
And then once you're in a low air density situation, you can cruise along.
It takes very little energy once you're in cruise.
That's a massive amount of energy to get up there.
Man, I thought about this a lot.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Yeah.
I mean, an aircraft and cruise is a neutral force balance.
So it's not accelerating.
So basically, if you've got a motor of a given force, then for a given force, you will just go faster as you go higher.
So you've got the air resistance...
The air resistance is dropping exponentially as you go higher.
If you have a constant accelerating, a constant force from your motor and propeller or turbine or whatever, then you will just go faster.
The higher you go, the faster you go for the same amount of power.
joe rogan
So the key would be achieving a high altitude.
elon musk
Yeah.
It's all about altitude.
Like, the air is very thick at sea level.
Like, for the same amount of force that you would go, say, like, you know, half the speed of sound at sea level, you could go, you know, twice the speed of sound, like, let's say, at 100,000 feet.
Same amount of energy in cruise.
joe rogan
Is it possible to fly a commercial plane at 100,000 feet?
Would that be possible?
elon musk
Oh, yeah, yeah.
You just go fast.
joe rogan
The great thing about that is you could bring flat earthers up there.
unidentified
Haha.
elon musk
Yeah, the faster you go, the higher you go, the faster you want to go.
unidentified
Right.
elon musk
The interesting thing about the SR-71 is that its most fuel-efficient speed was its fastest speed, pretty much, or pretty close, because that's when it could go at the highest altitude.
Because it could go faster at higher altitude, it got better miles per gallon at high speed than low speed.
joe rogan
That's pretty wild.
elon musk
Yeah.
So altitude, because air density decays exponentially and drag increases with the square.
And so the exponential beats the square.
joe rogan
Do you think there would ever be a time where Tesla could run itself in a sense of like you have enough talented people running it and you wouldn't have to devote all your resources to being there all the time and handling things and maybe you would think about planes?
elon musk
Yeah, I mean, I'm committed to run Tesla for several years into the future, and there's still a lot of things we've got to get done.
joe rogan
Could Tesla possibly expand to planes?
elon musk
It could.
It is a different regime.
I mean, there are no car companies that are aircraft companies, really.
So, but I think there is a way, ultimately, to have a vertical takeoff and landing supersonic electric jet.
unidentified
Wow.
elon musk
That'd be cool.
joe rogan
But what about the weight?
elon musk
That's where it comes from.
Energy density of the pack is important.
You need to get high.
joe rogan
Quickly.
elon musk
Yeah.
Get high.
Get high fast.
Yeah.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
So, um, and you can get rid of most of the things that are on a plane.
Um, if you just, if you, if you gimbal the, uh, the fan.
Yeah, to have the fan change direction, like you do with a rocket.
You know, you don't need, like, uh, You mostly don't need an elevator.
You just need some trim tabs.
You basically have a flying wing.
Pretty easy to do a flying wing.
Or a flying wing with a little bit of fuselage.
So you make it lighter.
You make the pack structural as well.
So the pack is the wing.
You gotta basically pull a few tricks like that.
This is all about how do you make the non-cell portion of the aircraft as light as possible.
Anyway, there's a lot of regulatory things you have to go through and this is counting on a watt-hours per kilogram.
You'd want watt-hours per kilogram at the pack level to be over 400. Yeah.
So we're pretty close to that.
So it's like it's, you know, at the pack level.
Not at the cell level, but at the pack level.
And with high cycle life.
joe rogan
Well, listen, you're doing plenty.
You don't necessarily have to get into planes right now.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
I think you're busy enough.
elon musk
Planes will be the last of the things.
Cars and trucks and then, you know, boats and then planes.
joe rogan
Well, it's interesting because plane technology in terms of, like, commercial air travel has probably increased, at least visibly, to the consumer the least in the last, like, 30, 40, 50 years.
It's not much difference.
The experience.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Pretty similar.
elon musk
Yep.
In fact, it's got slower.
joe rogan
Right after the Concorde.
unidentified
Yeah.
elon musk
Not even the Concorde.
The 747 was the fastest plane.
joe rogan
Oh, really?
elon musk
Yeah.
It had swept wings.
So the wing sweep, like what's the wing angle?
That's a big factor in what its cruise speed is going to be.
So the 747 had a pretty steep wing.
But its fuel efficiency is not as good as...
Something like 777 or 787. I mean, there's some basic things in physics that are present almost everywhere.
They sometimes take different form, but they're basically referring to the relationship between momentum and kinetic energy.
Kinetic energy goes as a square, momentum is linear.
And then there's surface-to-volume ratio.
Service volume ratio and the momentum to kinetic energy ratio Drive so much of mechanics, it's insane.
It's like the reason that you don't have a single-celled creature that is gigantic is because of surface-to-volume ratio.
There's a certain surface-to-volume ratio where diffusion works, and beyond that, diffusion does not work.
And you have to have a circulatory system.
For aircraft, or just generally, you want to move a large mass of air slowly, so you can reduce the velocity component of kinetic energy, which goes as a square.
You want to move a large amount of mass slowly, not a small amount of mass fast.
So, the way you make aircraft engines more efficient is you move a lot of air slowly.
Like big fans, basically.
Big, slow fans work great.
Small, tiny, fast-moving jets are very inefficient.
So, like, you know, something like a 777, it's really just a propeller in a shroud.
unidentified
So...
elon musk
High bypass ratio.
Like how much of it is jet versus propeller?
You want it to be mostly propeller.
joe rogan
So this is clearly something you've been thinking about a lot.
elon musk
Oh sure, yeah.
Like for 13 years.
joe rogan
Do you think it's going to be the next thing for you?
elon musk
I hope not.
I hope not.
There's some smart people I have to try and tackle it and I hope they are successful.
But just try to get high.
Get high.
joe rogan
Go fast.
elon musk
Get high.
You will automatically go fast as you go higher.
Air density is dropping exponentially.
And you think, like, in the limit, you've got, like, a satellite.
Satellite's going around there with, you know, low-width orbit satellites going around there with 25 times the speed of sound.
No propulsion.
So, if you get high enough, you just keep going.
Obviously, you just want to go super high.
Higher, the better.
Now, the thing, like you said, well, why don't planes do that already?
joe rogan
Well...
elon musk
So if you've got a combustion engine, it's got an aperture issue.
So you're like, okay, how big is the hole in which you're ingesting air?
And then bear in mind, air is mostly nitrogen, not oxygen.
So you've got a lot more chaff than you've got wheat.
And that's why, you know, it's like you're going to design...
This thing's got to work at sea level, it's got to work at altitude, and then it's going to drop off in efficiency quite a lot as you go higher.
And then there's also some other issues relating to depressurization, like how fast can you descend.
But you really just want to go super high.
And it's very difficult to design a combustion engine that is effective at a wide range of altitudes.
So the air density at 100,000 feet is approximately 1% that at sea level.
So, how the hell do you design a combustion, like an air burning, it's like an air, there's something that's taking an air, combining with fuel and burning, to work when you have a hundred-fold difference in air density?
This is an intractable problem.
But if you have an electric fan, it's not burning anything.
So, aperture doesn't matter.
It's a big deal.
joe rogan
It seems like it would be the best way to fly.
elon musk
Yeah.
joe rogan
Someone can figure out how to do it.
We're like well over three hours in here.
elon musk
Oh, wow.
joe rogan
Amazing.
elon musk
That flies when you're here.
joe rogan
Yeah.
elon musk
Wasted.
joe rogan
Well, thank you very much.
As always, it's a pleasure.
Always fun to talk to you, man.
I really appreciate it.
elon musk
Yeah, you're welcome.
joe rogan
If you ever want to talk about something, I'm here for you.
elon musk
Thanks.
joe rogan
All right.
Thank you.
unidentified
All right.
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