Nov. 18, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
25:17
Gilbert Doctorow : Why Russia Needs to Win Its War
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Wednesday, November 19th, 2025.
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow will be with us in just a moment on why Russia needs to win this war.
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Dr. Doctorow, welcome here, my dear friend.
As always, thank you for accommodating my schedule.
From your sources, public and private, is it your belief that the United States and the Russian Federation have been engaged in heretofore secret negotiations intended to bring a resolution to the special military operation in Ukraine?
Yes, to my considerable surprise, and I imagine to the surprise of some viewers, because so many people have doubts about Mr. Trump's consistency of purpose.
Is he just talking a lot or is he actually doing something?
And what about all the people around him, like his Secretary of State, Rubio, who is certainly no fan of solutions to the Ukraine war?
So it was a surprise to me to learn this morning that a little bit of information about what Mr. Witkoff's mission to Istanbul was planned to be.
I say plan to be because it's not quite working out as had been hoped.
But nonetheless, what we learned from this is that Witkoff was bringing to Istanbul a rather detailed peace plan, which according to the same sources tells me that it incorporated into it the points on how the war should end, which take into account Russia's interests, meaning addressing the root causes of the war.
Now, this is remarkable on two sides.
One, as I said, Mr. Trump is not known for consistency.
It is widely believed that he listens to or says today what somebody whispered in his ear yesterday.
However, it would appear that he was maintaining highly secret back-channel contacts directly with Mr. Putin.
This also explains something which left me confounded, going back to the Valdai Discussion Club event, annual event, which about six weeks ago, Mr. Putin delivered his normal address to the plenary session.
and he behaved in a very peculiar manner.
He seemed to be trying too hard to ingratiate himself with Trump.
It was almost humiliating the way he went out of his way.
Well, in light of what seems to have come out today, that becomes explicable.
Not only was Vladimir Putin trying his best to keep Trump happy and on side, but he was also trying to mask the issues that the two of them were quietly negotiating behind closed doors and out of our view, which is where these things belong, out of our view.
So your understanding, and this has not been covered in the Western press, not even in your and my favorite publication, the Financial Times.
Not a word.
Is that right, not a word?
Is that Steve Witkoff, not Marco Ruby or anybody from the State Department, is negotiating with somebody from Russia.
Who on the Russian side, or with whom on the Russian side is Mr. Witkoff meeting?
Do we have the slightest idea?
It's not Sergei Lavrov.
To my knowledge, there will be no Russians for him to meet today.
In fact, there will not be Mr. Zelensky, who was to have been his talking partner as he presented the American solution to him.
Instead, Witkoff has other people to meet with.
I believe he's meeting with people from Hamas to discuss how the Gaza peace goes forward.
But others, American military men, are meeting with counterparts from Ukraine.
what they will discuss we have.
What is the purpose of these meetings but to get this 20-point plan in front of Messrs Putin and Lavrov, right?
Yes, I believe so.
Certainly they must have some of this in their hands already.
It is not, we don't know details about it.
But when the Russians say that their concerns are now being well understood by the Americans, that takes us back to where we were in Alaska, which was then denied as having taken place by Rubio.
It would seem as though it did take place and as though Mr. Trump never really moved away from it.
What I see is that in a way, Trump has done exactly what he said he would do, but we haven't been paying much attention to it because we don't take Trump seriously at our own cost.
What do I mean?
He said he would apply maximum pressure to both sides, and that's exactly what he's doing.
Let's face it, the secondary sanctions that he applied to Russia are causing a lot of economic disruption and corporate misery in Russia.
Those of us who say that the United States can do nothing that will hurt Russia are missing the point.
The Luke Oil, which is the largest private oil company and the major exporter of Russian oil, has faced serious problems in disposing of its assets abroad under necessity from the actions of the Trump administration.
We know that the Indians have just met with the United States and included agreement for purchasing 10% of their petroleum gas needs, that's for home heating and cooking, from the United States coming from U.S. sources.
This is a token change in the purchasing practices of India, which formerly, when it needed gas, before it got interested in the bargain prices from Russia, was buying nearly all of its gas from the Middle East.
The United States was not part of the equation.
Now it is.
So the Russians are feeling the pressure.
And now the Ukrainians are feeling the pressure.
If the meeting was scheduled for today, let's look at the timing.
It's one week after the catastrophic disclosures on corruption in the immediate circle of Zelensky, over this $100 million skimming in the energy sector.
It's coming three weeks before the EU will have a European Council as the heads of state and government meeting in Brussels to decide on the fate of the confiscated plan to confiscate Russian state assets frozen in Europe.
So the timing is such to catch Zelensky when he's most vulnerable and to roll out the American plan before the Europeans get their act together.
Is there any reason to believe that the Russians have modified their initial core demands in order to facilitate some sort of an amicable agreement?
We all know those core demands.
President Putin has stated them and Foreign Minister Levroff has stated them consistently many times.
No NATO, neutral Ukraine, Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine return to Russia.
And if those demands have not changed, is Zelensky free to negotiate for them?
Or would his tenure in office, quote unquote, since he's not legally in office, and his life on earth be seriously compromised if he entered into such an agreement?
Well, I think that the Russians are prepared to make compromises, but not necessarily along the lines that any of us foresaw.
To negotiate with Mr. Zelensky under the conditions that you just outlined would all by itself be a major concession.
You did not mention, you spelled out what demilitarization means, but you did not mention the second primary condition that President Putin set out when he initiated the special military operation, which is denazification.
Putting that into simple English, it's regime change.
That is almost impossible.
I mean, they could bring about regime change, but denazification would be almost impossible.
That means either neutralizing an ideology or removing human beings that embrace the ideology, no?
Well, it's not so difficult.
Let's face it, there is a gang of people or a small minority.
When elections were held, there was between 1 and 5% of the voters backed the neo-Nazi extremists who, since 2014, have controlled the Ukrainian government.
So to denazify means to remove those one to five percent of the those who are backed by one to five percent of the population and who probably number several hundred, not several thousands or tens of thousands or whatever.
You're not going to denazify the nation, but you could denazify the government.
And that would be sufficient to put an end to all of the censorship, to all of the publication of essentially pro-Nazi propaganda for schools.
That could be done.
Right.
Well, how could Zelensky, who is apparently a puppet of this gaggle, possibly agree to that?
To stay in power, not to be lynched in the streets, to be certain that his exit would be honored and that he will not be hunted down as a war criminal by the United States and others.
At least I think he is in a weak position and he must recognize that.
You know that, well, a week ago, people were talking about Zelensky remaining in Greece in case when he had this last weekend visit to Greece to discuss energy.
So the fact that he is on very shaky legs is pretty obvious.
And so he could be offered a ticket out and to safety if he goes along with this.
Do the Russians understand that Marco Rubio does not want peace, that Marco Rubio is the personification of the neocon theory that Ukraine, this is going back to Victoria Newland days, that Ukraine can be used as a battering ram with which to weaken or even drive President Putin from office.
Well, I think the Russians, by that, the decision makers in the Kremlin understand that very well and have for a good long time.
How they didn't address it because it would be creating problems for Donald Trump if they singled out Rubio as a source of the problems.
After all, plenty of others who are contributing.
Lindsey Graham is an outstanding case in the Senate.
But they have not attacked Rubio, but they have indicated they understand perfectly well who he is and why he's troubled.
So to whom does Sergei Lavrov, to whom in the American government does Sergei Lavrov speak?
No one?
Witkoff.
Witkoff.
I mean, we're almost back to the Joe Biden, Tony Blink, and Jake Sullivan days where there was no communication.
If the only person to whom Lavrov speaks is Witkoff, State Department is totally out of the picture.
Witkoff tells President Trump what he thinks the president wants to hear.
Trump has these neocons whispering in his ears, don't make a deal.
The Russians are weak, keeps tightening the vice.
It's hard for me to believe this is going to result in an amicable resolution.
I still think the only way out of this is a victory on the battlefield for the Russians.
I believe there are military officers who are meeting with their Ukrainian counterparts.
And I think it is imaginable that they are part of the group that is advising Trump on what is realizable and what is logical.
Who is part of the group?
Ukrainian military officers are advising Trump?
How would that happen?
No, there are two sides meeting today in Istanbul.
Mr. Witkov is not part of that.
It is U.S. military officers who are meeting with their Ukrainian counterparts.
I murdered you.
I'm sorry.
I thought you said Russian military officers.
U.S. military and Ukrainian military are meeting in Istanbul and U.S. military will presumably advise Pete Hegseth to tell the president what they learned.
Presumably.
Look, these negotiations between nominally Trump and Putin are so far-reaching and so complex, it is inconceivable that only Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff are putting it together.
Let us assume that there are some junior people who are doing the legwork and the investigative work to make, to put together this 20-point, 28-point, whatever it is, peace plan that has some possibility of actually being implemented.
Later today, I will be questioning Maria Zakharova, not on Judging Freedom, but on a Russian broadcast.
And I'm going to ask her, why has there been no normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Russian Federation?
Why is the American embassy and Moscow 95% empty?
Why do I have to fly through Istanbul or Dubai in order to get to Moscow?
How will she answer that?
Well, she is loyal to her boss, so I think she'll answer it the way Lavroflu answered.
And that they are leapfrogging these important technical issues.
It was assumed that the peace would come about from extensive discussions at all levels of government.
I think that's been scrapped as being too complicated and inviting too much criticism from Congress.
And so it's been narrowed.
The progress in U.S.-Russian relations, if there is any, has been narrowed to a very few people and kept behind closed doors, as was clear until this morning, when the Witkov mission was detected as being an effort to conclude a peace against the wishes of Ukraine.
Why would the Russians consider any kind of a peace negotiation now when they have the Ukrainian military on its last legs and they are so close to achieving their ground-level objectives?
Judge, this is a very disputable point, that they're on their last legs.
If the 145 billion is put up, they will certainly not be on their last legs.
The Pakrovsk is not Ukraine's last stand.
Pakrovsk is in the middle of the Donetsk oblast, which is part of the Donbass that Russia expects to receive at the end of this war.
What we're ignoring, and this is remarkable to me because people who should know better are not considering how the war has changed in the last six months to a year.
Everyone is talking, yeah, so many people are talking as if this is the war that began three years ago as an artillery war where the Russians had a 10-to-1 advantage in tubes and in ammunition.
It is no longer such a war.
Yes, of course, artillery is used.
Yes, of course, the Russians are using tanks as artillery, not using them as tanks, to accompany and protect infantry.
No, they're being used as artillery.
Of course, that is part of it.
But the war is a drone war.
As I remarked in my visit to Petersburg two weeks ago, the home front and the front lines are now converging.
That is to say, drones are striking 1,250, 1,500 kilometers into Russia and doing damage.
But more important and relevant to the questions you've raised, they are killing people and maiming people.
And nobody, people who are saying that the kill ratio is 15 to 1 in Russia's favor, 30 to 1 in Russia's favor, this is incredible and I believe untrue.
Because the kill ratio coming out of the great equalizer, which is what drones are, is much closer to one to one.
And people, when the question comes up, why could there be war weariness in Russia?
Because they know people know about the maimed who are coming home.
And they're maimed, not because they're hit with artillery.
There'd be nothing left of them if they're hit but with artillery.
But in drone strikes, people are fortunate enough to come away with losing two legs or whatever.
And they're the ones who are being delivered back to Russia.
So the war is costing Russia.
And to say otherwise, I think, is to miss the meaning of a drone war.
If your assessment is correct, do you concede that that would be an incentive for President Putin to end it quickly on the battlefield with massive force?
You yourself called for that not long ago.
No, I was not calling for battlefield.
I was calling for missiles to be used against the decision-making centers in Kiev.
This is not my idea.
This was something that was announced by President Putin himself when the war began.
That if this and this were done, then we will go after the decision-makers.
Well, they didn't.
They have not gone after the decision-making centers.
I won't attempt to get into their minds and understand why they're being so reserved.
I'm simply observing the fact that they haven't bombed Kiev.
Not having bombed Kiev for power stations and transportation, but they haven't gone after Bank of the United States.
What does your gut tell you, or where does your gut tell you this will be by Christmas?
A month from now, a little over a month from now.
If the Russians should escalate to bombing the decision-making centers in Kiev, the war will be over.
In light of their grounded, justified belief that a deal can be done with Donald Trump that will be forced down the throats of the Europeans and Ukrainians, then they won't do that.
And the war will go on somewhat longer till there is a change in Kiev.
Either Zelensky is killed or he's removed or is given a golden handshake and leaves to enjoy his stolen wealth abroad.
Something could happen in this time period, which puts in place someone like Aristovich, say, the one who is sitting in the States and who initially was a great hawk, an advisor to Zelensky, who got out of the country in time, not to be imprisoned, and who changed his song.
Aristovich has been making very moderate statements to end the war and give up what has to be given up and just get on with.
Now, if, for example, a man like this were installed, then of course the Russians will sign a peace treaty, maybe not by Christmas, but certainly within the coming several months.
So there are a number of ways this thing can go.
Jen, as I've identified discussing the situation here in Belgium, where the Prime Minister de Weber has said no to the confiscation of Russian state assets, pending some backing by other European states, Europe is so desperate to keep Ukraine afloat that it may do something completely irresponsible and dangerous.
Belgium will not take this on by itself because, as de Weber pointed out, if the $145 billion is called back in as a result and has to be paid back to the collateral pool because the Russians win a lawsuit, which is entirely possible, then that would wipe out the country of Belgium.
$145 billion is, by De Weber's words, one-third of the GDP of the country.
Wow.
Fascinating stuff, Dr. Doctora.
Thank you very much.
Thanks for your intellectual honesty and even for your sources.
Some of this I didn't even know about until you emailed me in the middle of the night, U.S. time.
But thanks very much for your time, your patience, your sources, and your analysis.
We have a short week next week because it's Thanksgiving here in the U.S., but we'll do our best to get you on.
And I look forward to seeing you then.
Well, thank you very much.
Of course.
And coming up later today at 11 this morning, Aaron Mate, why are American politicians putting Israel above the U.S.?
You probably know the answer to that already.
At one o'clock this afternoon, Colonel Douglas McGregor, how soon will we be at war and where will it be first?
And at three o'clock this afternoon, Phil McGregor, has Donald Trump suddenly discovered Christianity?