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Sept. 18, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
22:42
LtCOL. Tony Shaffer : How Long Can Ukraine Last?
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for a judging freedom.
Today is Thursday, September 18th, 2025.
Colonel Tony Schaeffer will be here in just a moment.
Just how long can Ukraine hold out?
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Colonel Schaefer, welcome here, uh my dear friend.
Always good to see you.
Uh before we get to Ukraine, uh, can you explain how it is, if it is even conceivable that the Israelis could have uh attacked Doha without the United States knowing about it, approving it, and even assisting.
There's no way that we didn't know.
Uh for three reasons.
First, we're a close ally, and many of the things that they rely upon are provided by us regarding logistics and intelligence.
I mean, while we're not, they're not one of the five eyes, they they most certainly have a favored nation status regarding uh information.
And Doha is uh our playground.
Just saying, I mean, we have a base there, we know a lot of what goes on, which comes to my second point.
There's no way that um the uh the nations around Doha, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, would have permitted this to happen.
Uh, would have been what it let me phrase this correctly.
There's no way Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and even Qatar would have not been outraged.
And yes, they had the conference, and oh, they're all getting together and talking about how bad this is.
They have to do that to say face with their people.
But there's no doubt that the uh the Saudis and Iraqis at least probably the cutteries in some form were aware.
As a matter of fact, I think President Trump even said we tried to warn the cutteries that they were coming.
So yeah, we warned them because we kind of knew.
So that's the second thing.
Third, and I think what's kind of important is the fact that everybody was looking the other way, allowed the Israelis to do this, and it was essentially a decapitation strike.
That is to say, the theory was based on the intelligence, all the different Hamas leadership would be in that one spot at that one time, uh, discussing the proposed uh ceasefire that Steve Whitkoff had offered up.
So the belief was this was a chance to take out at least 80% of the senior leadership of Hamas.
I I don't think they got 80%.
I think they probably got about half, but they got more than than they're lost more than they're saying, and the Israelis didn't get as much as they're saying.
So it's somewhere in the middle there, but maybe everybody knew uh on our side, to include our Arab allies, this was about to happen.
So the president says he didn't know, that means either he's not being truthful or he wasn't told.
If the latter is the case, isn't it inconceivable that John Radcliffe, the head of the CIA, uh General Kane, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Secretary Rubio, the Secretary of State, Secretary Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense or War wouldn't have told him.
I I think I'll be honest.
I think he's saying he didn't know this the specific time.
These other details to include when the Israeli aircraft left the ground, the route they were flying.
These all these things all take hours.
This isn't like the movies where you do a cutscene from the the loading of ordnance on the ramp to the plane in the air to the strike, which is what in a movie about two minutes, maybe maybe less.
This took uh at least uh a date of of hey, aircraft of a specific configuration or on the ramp.
We know it.
They're off, they've asked for clearance to an airspace in either Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
We know it.
So I think what he's trying to say is he didn't know the specifics of the of the strike, but we we the United States knew there's no way we didn't know that this was coming.
Uh and I I do believe, since I get again, we have a heavy presence in Qatar that we wouldn't have known exactly what those targets were in Qatar, well in advance of of the strike.
So I think I think maybe he's saying he didn't he wasn't told till it was in the air, which is possible.
Someone would have what may have gotten him and said, Hey, Mr. President, the Israelis are about to strike Cutter.
This is what's going on.
I think that's possible, but he did have foreknowledge of what was about to happen.
And did we tell the cutter government before the planes arrived?
Watch out.
I'm sure we did.
Because again, President Trump said he tried to warn Cutter that the aircraft were coming.
Okay, which means I think that he said that he said, Yeah, we try to warn him.
I think that that means there was calls made saying aircraft are coming in, don't mess with them.
Remember, Cutter has our air defense artillery systems, they have Patriots.
So, Judge, there's no way Cutter's air defense was caught off guard and failed to act.
Just saying, you know.
I mean, it's our stuff.
Would we have um I'm gonna use a lay phrase?
I'm sure there's a technical phrase with which you're familiar, turned off the uh radar and air defenses uh in Qatar, which we control because of that enormous air base there.
Would we actually have done that?
And if we did, isn't that dangerous?
Well, we had to there's ways of aircraft to sortie through airspace in a way that's permissible.
Uh, and that's what I'm saying.
It's like what the amount of surface-to-air missiles, Qatar was just a while back, I think six months, five months, six months ago now, they were attacked by uh Iran.
Uh maybe it's four months, four months.
And if you recall, there were missiles fired from Iran that we had to that the cuttery patriots had to go shoot down.
So again, there's no possibility, and this is where I get a little bit upset with the Pentagon and the White House.
Like it's still kabuki theater.
There's no way Israeli aircraft could have gotten in that close to do a strike on a building in downtown Doha without to your to use your term, things being turned off.
They were turned off.
They they they basically had a secure corridor.
They were told to stay within.
Basically, this is again the kabuki.
They they were told fly here, go to this IP initial point, go here, go to this initial point, and you'll be fine.
There's just there's just no way they would have risked high performance aircraft in a in a confrontation without without full knowledge that they were going to be okay as long as they threw within certain corridors.
Okay.
Yeah, switching over to Ukraine.
Yeah.
Uh Two days ago, President Putin uh visited uh the Belarus uh Russian war games.
Yeah.
And he showed up in a military uniform.
A, why was would he have gone there?
And B, why would he have been dressed that way?
I couldn't imagine Trump wearing a military uniform.
No, I can't either.
No.
I love President Trump, but no, I couldn't see that.
He he looks snazzy in his suit and red tie.
So there's a lot of cold war level messaging ongoing, Judge.
You I think you see it.
I know a lot of other C people see it.
And this is going back to the chess game that was the East and West confrontation during the Cold War.
There, there's Putin.
And there's a distinction with the difference regarding what Russia's doing and what Europe's doing.
Let me explain.
Russia's making it very clear that militarily we are strong.
I think that's why Putin's in uniform.
It's like, hey, we are uh strong.
We're very strong right now.
Belarus is their key ally, they were doing exercises.
BBC actually had an article saying uh is Belarus and Russia trying to send Europe a signal with the exercise.
Yes, don't mess with them.
Don't tread on me, so to speak.
You know, the whole thing didn't they invite uh NATO observers?
They did.
They did, yes.
How unusual.
Typical.
That's cold war.
We used to have we used to have observers on both sides during the cold war.
I used to go to Reforgers.
I this is not well known.
The Russians had a small element in Germany that would run around to the exercises.
They were German officers.
They were German.
I mean, I'm sorry, they were Russian uh forward deployed Soviet officers in Germany.
And so they had a little car, they'd get in and they'd run around and check out exercises.
So again, this is very cold war.
It's like, hey, come look, we're doing an exercise.
Got it.
So we typically invited observers.
So that's why I'm saying the Russians are speaking to us in the language of the Cold War.
Europe is speaking to the Russians and Piglet, because I don't think they understand what they're saying, and I don't think the Russians do either.
Can you explain the drones over Poland?
Where did they come from?
How did they get there?
Were they intentionally put there by Russia?
Were they a false flag by Ukraine?
So President Trump has said, as me, I'm skeptical, they came from Russia.
Why?
Because of the range.
These things ain't missiles.
A drone judge has a certain range.
If you if you just look at the map, to get to to where they were observed, it's a long haul.
And yes, it could have gone over Belarus and all this other stuff over Ukraine, but I just why?
There's other ways of intimidating an enemy, like they're doing with the exercise.
The exercise in Belarus, that's intimidation.
That's saying, hey, that's sending a message.
This drone stuff, I think, is meant to spin up the the um Europeans.
And so who benefits most from spinning up the Europeans?
Well, it's Ukraine.
I'm not saying Ukraine did it, I'm just saying they're the ones who benefit the most from any sort of expanded interest in in Europe of doing something.
So there's been a lot of skepticism.
Even uh Russia said, hey, we're open to the investigation.
We don't know.
Now that's that's not to say the Russians didn't do it, and just being too too cute by half by saying, Oh, we we want the investigation.
Were they drones without uh explosives?
They were they were basically um uh cardboard and um styrofoam uh styrofoam drones, yeah.
They they were they were meant to have uh kind of a an effect that they had no explosives, or as far as I can tell, any question.
what is your gut tell you?
Is this something Putin would do, or is this more craziness from Zelensky's people?
I think it's craziness from Zelensky because Putin's doing something.
Again, Putin is doing something.
You just showed him in uniform.
So yeah, they're doing stuff to tell to send the Europeans a message.
I just don't think this drone thing would send a message.
The kind of message Putin wants sent.
It's like, yeah, the Russians are intimidating, trying to be intimidating, but the drone thing, I don't think is it.
Just saying.
And NATO, NATO's reaction and Poland's reaction was as if we're on the cusp of World War III.
We better get ready for it.
So I have no problem with that, in that we have 10,000 troops to include two armor brigades and the Fifth Corps headquarters forward in Poland.
That's their job.
Our job is to be prepared.
It's a deterrent.
Again, cold war.
Judge, think about the adults in the room recognize this is a cold war series of uh of uh equations.
The children, Zelensky, and the Europeans all think this is some sort of game to get more money and resources out of us.
That's so there's two games being played here.
The serious uh the adults in the room recognize the cold war language and it's being spoken.
I think President Trump understands it.
You've got the Keith Kellogg's, you've got uh the Zelenskys, all living in an alternate universe.
Uh Keith Kellogg, let me throw him in for a second.
He actually made a public speech last week.
He says, Oh, the Russians are losing.
Oh, I'm gonna play that for you in a minute.
But before we get there, it is NATO close to war with Russia.
No, no, no, no, no, no.
We have again forward-based, about two uh two armored brigades, uh divisions, sorry, I misspoke.
Two armored divisions, and uh what what is that?
What's it what's a division, a number of troops?
It's a huge, it's a huge 10,000 people, 10,000 people.
That's a core.
We got basically a core minus, two armored divisions, core minus forward in Poland.
And and Poland is our biggest current deployment in NATO.
That's us.
Plus, we have aircraft there.
Now think about the insanity of this, Judge.
We were shooting $800,000 missiles plus at uh at probably drones, which cost maybe $200 each.
That's that's the problem here.
We we are we are forward-leaning, but not discerning.
We need to be better at discerning what's a threat and what's not.
But having troops in Poland is their job.
It is a deterrent.
With that said, are we at the break?
No.
Neither side has established the long-term logistical trains they would need to sustain any incursion, nor do we see the troops necessary at the front of the uh near the border in in Belarus, which could do any effective movement other than get themselves killed should they cross the border.
So we are in the the messaging phase of a potential third, uh second uh uh cold war.
Here's um the uh clip of General Kellogg uh that you referenced.
I think he is truly off the wall, but he gets to whisper into the president's ear.
I'd like your thoughts on this.
Chris got number nine.
If he was winning, he'd be in Kyiv.
If he's winning, he'd be west of the Dnepa River.
If he's winning, he'd be on Odessa.
If he's winning, he would have changed the government.
Russia is in fact losing this war.
Now, they may they may make movements and see so well, they're advancing uh in the Donbass region in the desk, but if you consider advancing moving by meters, not miles, well then okay, that's successful.
But if the cost they're having, it's enormous.
And I don't think people truly appreciate it.
It's a number, but the numbers they have lost, when you're talking dead and wounded, well over a million, they left Afghanistan after losing 18,000.
We left Vietnam after losing 65,000.
They've lost over a million dead or wounded.
These numbers are world war two level numbers when you have when you think about it.
They're they're stunning in the loss.
And this is in and their first line units that they came and tried to take Kyiv with a little over four four years ago.
Those first line units are gone.
So they've gone through a second or third or fourth iteration of wartime commanders.
They're pulling tanks out of mothballs, out of museums, to put on the battle line.
They can't operate in large movements because the Ukrainians would kill them.
you On earth is he getting his numbers from Ukraine.
Come on.
We know we know where this is coming from.
And the whole uh, oh, they're they're breaking down washing machines and refrigerators pulling the chips out for their weapons, like getting tanks out of museums?
This is preposterous.
The Russians produce vastly more tanks per month than we do.
They are the Russian economy is on war footing.
So let me say a couple things, and I'm I'm gonna get in trouble with some people, but I'm gonna be I I just feel I gotta speak the truth.
Keith Kellogg is fundamentally undermining and is being counterproductive to President Trump's purpose of ending the war.
I don't know how to put it in any clearer terms.
Uh uh the fact that that Kellogg has any access to the president, I consider detrimental, especially after this display of utter uh propaganda from the Ukrainians.
Have the Russians lost a significant amount of troops?
Absolutely.
The Russians are known for being able to sustain massive casualties.
It's not new.
Uh, we saw that from uh in World War II from Stalingrad to Berlin.
No doubt, no doubt that they can do that.
Is it a million?
No.
It's it's it's an it's in the hundreds of it's probably a hundred thousand, maybe a bit more.
It's significant, it's more than we would take on, but it's not a million.
Secondly, the Keith Kellogg is either uh fundamentally incapable of understanding strategy or has decided to just take the the party line of Ukraine and use it as own because the Russians by their own special military operation objectives aren't trying to take Kiev or all of Ukraine.
That's not the standard, Judge.
The standard is aggressive attrition.
What they're trying to do, the Russians is wear down Ukraine and by extension us, the West.
And we've been just letting it happen.
There, they they have a trident every weapon system.
They, the Russians, have a treated every weapon system we've given them.
We've we've done exactly the opposite of what we should have done to help the Ukrainians win.
Here, take this, go go use it on the battlefield, grind, grind, grind, it's gone.
Okay, so how dangerous is it that General Kellogg gets to whisper into Donald Trump's ears?
Well, I've said publicly I fire the man.
I would have never put him back in play.
Uh and again, this is gonna get me in trouble for saying this, but uh I don't know why President Trump gives him any of the time of day.
By the way, Keith Kellogg just got uh some sort of order of Lenin award from the Ukrainians, so he's not a neutral party.
This is one of the things too.
President Trump has said his policy, we are the neutral party.
Well, Mr. Well, Mr. President, Keith Kellogg is not on on your side if you're saying we're a neutral party.
He's playing for Ukraine.
Steve Boykov is trying to be neutral.
I think most other folks now recognize our job is to be neutral to end this.
Keith Kellogg should have a permanent uh dacha in northern Ukraine on the front line to help advise because that's kind of what he's doing.
And by the way, let me be clear.
He is per perpetuating the Ukrainian propaganda by saying the stuff he did.
I'm just saying, I I hate to be that blunt, but I thought you're accounting.
Your uh your uh bluntness is deeply appreciated.
Uh Colonel Schaefer, how much longer can Ukraine last?
Well, they've gone through all of the weapon caches that we sent them.
There's a proposal on the table for uh over a hundred billion dollars that the that the the you the Ukrainians have asked for from uh the the Ukrainians have asked for from the EU.
The EU doesn't have the money.
I don't know where they think they're gonna get it, and we're not gonna give it to them.
The new scheme that we proposed that NATO furnish weapons to Ukraine has now kicked in.
The first uh tranche of weapons 500 million dollars worth I think was just approved by the Pentagon.
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