Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano - Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Russia Spreads Its Wings; Thumbs Its Nose.

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Sept. 2, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano

25:13

Prof. Gilbert Doctorow : Russia Spreads Its Wings; Thumbs Its Nose.

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	Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for judging freedom.
	Today is Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025.
	Professor Gilbert Doctorow will be with us here in just a moment.
	Russia spreads its wings commercially and thumbs its nose diplomatically.
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	Professor Doctor, welcome here, my dear friend.
	Before we get to the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting and the uh effect on BRICS of the meeting uh this week, uh a couple of questions, if I might about uh Ukraine.
	What are the attitudes uh as you perceive them among Russian elites uh about the likely uh end of the special military operation?
	I think they perceive that it will be uh resolved on the battlefield.
	The expectations that any of the uh the friends of Russia, like India or China, or for that matter, uh President uh Trump will uh bring Ukraine to the table and make them amenable to a realistic settlement.
	I think those expectations are minimal.
	Uh there is, if you follow um the Russian uh state television news daily, uh there is a clear perception that the advances are significant, as advances on the ground, the taking of territory, um, is now at the level of 700 uh square kilometers a month, whereas it had been 400 a month at the start of it at the start of this year.
	So there is the also the awareness that the front is has in some respects weakened to collapsed around the logistical hub of Pakrovsk, which is of great importance to all logistical uh services to the Ukrainian frontline soldiers.
	In that respect, uh, I think that the Russian elites have a vision of a race to the Niampa River, which would be the culmination.
	There's also talk, of course, of uh taking a Dessa, which would be a still more dramatic uh denume conclusion to this military conflict.
	Yeah, that is the mood among elites.
	Do you foresee any circumstances uh under which uh Vladimir Putin and Volodomiroselensky sit down at a table together?
	It is possible.
	It's very difficult to imagine, but it is possible.
	However, the Russians have made it fairly clear that um Mr. Zelensky's signature on any documents will not be welcome.
	They could meet, they can discuss what a settlement can and should be, but uh they would want to have a legitimate signature on any documents concluding peace.
	They don't conclude, they don't consider his to be legitimate.
	Interesting.
	What do Ukrainian elites think?
	They're, if you know, their generals, their diplomats, their senior government officials, not including uh President Zelensky, uh, about the likely coming Russian military achievement of the Russian objectives on the battlefield.
	Well, for obvious reasons, they do not speak openly their minds.
	If they did, they would be in deep trouble, if not imprisonment altogether.
	So it's very difficult to answer your question.
	The um the uh Ukrainian media are tightly controlled, as we know.
	Uh the no criticism is of the government's policies are acceptable.
	And the opposition leaders of the past, like Timoshenko, Poroshenko, are really on board with Zelensky in his objectives.
	Uh they just think they could do it better.
	So there is not a big split in Ukrainian elites at this moment, sufficient to encourage us to think that the Ukrainian side will back down until the military defeat becomes impossible to conceal.
	What about the uh supernationalists, the banderists, the people that some refer to as uh neo-Nazis.
	Do they uh accept the coming reality or are they so driven by ideology that uh they'll fight to the end?
	Uh there was a an article, I think last week on Zero Hedge by uh one commentator uh who pointed out that the Russians are ensnaring the um the elite forces of the Ukrainian army by not pushing to full advantage their daily progress on the line of confrontation and allowing or inviting the Ukrainians to make a counter-strike,
	which they then snuff out, taking so many hundreds or thousands of soldiers uh with them.
	Therefore, um you you cannot uh see the the um diminishing strength of those nationalists.
	Russia's ideal is to exterminate them.
	Right.
	And best of all, exterminate them on the field of battle so you don't get into all the nonsense of judicial trials.
	Yeah, you uh were kind enough to share that uh article with me, and I found it uh fascinating.
	And the author's uh thesis is that as I understand it, I'm recall it, uh President Putin could move for a swift victory, but that's not what he wants.
	He wants a slow methodical victory so as to eliminate as much as possible of the Ukrainian fighting force, particularly these people we're calling the Banderists, so he doesn't have to deal with them when the war is over.
	Fair enough?
	That is a very good summation.
	An additional small uh ring uh point here um is that uh Putin wants the Ukrainian people to say uncle.
	He wants the Ukrainian people to admit that the whole of Bandera program that they have it as was imposed by the new government following in the February uh 2014 uh coup d'etat, that all the principles behind it of extreme nationalism are totally discredited.
	For that reason, he is allowing or even encouraging the of the um enormous um uh uh extermination uh of um uh capable males in Ukraine, those who are inducted into the military.
	It would be possible theoretically, for that to be avoided, but that would not drive home to the Ukrainian nation that they have lost, and that the principles behind their fight are false.
	Do you have any feel for ties between MI6 CIA and the Banderists?
	Well, that's outside my field of competence.
	Right.
	I know it's outside your field, but I know you also have a lot of contact, so I I respect the intellectual honesty of your answer, and I thought I would uh throw it out.
	Um before we get to uh India uh and the um Shanghai organization uh and BRICS, is there any uh reaction in Moscow when President Trump does things like blow out of the water of Venezuelan ship, killing everybody on it without any due process whatsoever?
	This is arguably uh homicide.
	This is a pre-conviction extrajudicial uh execution.
	Does Moscow react at all internally when Trump does things like this?
	Sort of like when he killed uh General Soleimani uh in his first term.
	Well, Soleimani they react to because they are close friends of Iran, and he was a very prominent person.
	Um, as regards these slightest incidents, the Russians are quiet about it.
	You won't find it in the news.
	They don't comment on it.
	Uh their official position is um remains very favorable to Trump in the belief that he can do business with him, that he is the first American president in a generation uh who listens to them.
	So they leave it at that.
	All right, uh Chris, put up the full screen uh from uh President Trump on his truth social uh please what the president wrote this morning.
	The big question to be answered is whether or not President Xi of China will mention the massive amount of support and blood that the United States of America gave to China in order to help it secure its freedom from a very unfriendly foreign invader.
	He's talking about Japan and World War II.
	Many Americans died in China's quest for victory and glory.
	I hope that they are rightfully honored and remembered for their bravery and sacrifice.
	May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration.
	Now, this sarcasm that I want to ask you about, Professor, back to quoting the president.
	Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un as you conspire as you, not as they, as you conspire against the United States of America.
	How does the Kremlin view that type of diplomacy by sarcasm?
	I don't think they'll react at all for the reasons I just mentioned.
	They don't pay much attention to what Donald Trump says, uh, says in public.
	Uh I think I've called this out in the past.
	I don't follow up closely what he says.
	I don't parse his words because of their they're largely double talk and double talk to um keep off balance all of his many opponents, domestically and foreign.
	Um but um I think this message is very important for a different reason.
	It is very sad, deeply sad, that Trump did not make arrangements to be present at the parade uh to um uh today.
	Yeah, it is deeply sad.
	Uh and to make these words about hoping that people will that American American soldiers who died and will be honored.
	Uh, I'm sorry, that's pitiful.
	Uh for the same talk about let's let me be broader about this.
	I have publicly criticized in Indian television interviews, uh, Modi's decision not to be present, because one and a half million uh Indians died fighting in World War II on the European and the Pacific uh fronts.
	And it was like it was a failure to honor those deaths of his compatriots, although that India was not yet a nation, that is a state into in uh 1945.
	But it was uh disgraceful that he did not honor their emerald by attending.
	So it was with Trump.
	It's just disgraceful that he wasn't there, and I think it would have played out differently.
	What we saw on the television screens today uh would have looked different if Trump had been at the party.
	What has been the uh effect, the economic effect of the short term economic effect, we can speculate the long term, but the short term economic effect of Trump's tariffs on India?
	Well, the most distinct for me to distinguishing uh consequence was what looks like the pull out of India from the quadrilateral arrangements for a containment of China policy and or a proto NATO in Indo-Pacific, uh, of which they were members after 25 years of cultivating this relationship by Washington.
	I think that was uh that was the end result that Trump uh sought, uh, and he got it.
	Now as to the other consequences, of course, the the the um uh lake deals may a great deal of noise has been made about these tariffs, though they apply to manufactured and press primarily to textiles, um, which is an important employer in India.
	So the political impact in India is greater than the dollar value of trade that is being lost as a result of these tariffs, considering that these are low-paid textile workers who will be out of a job.
	But the major component of uh US Indian trade, which is um uh IT, software programming, business intelligence uh done uh under contract, or even with subsidiaries of American corporations in India,
	uh, this remains intact, 80 billion dollars worth uh out of a hundred billion dollars in trade, as far as I understand it, um of exp of of uh uh exports to the United States, and then pharmaceuticals also are untouched.
	But the the way that this was brought in and the insulting remarks uh by Trump in his telephone conversation with with Modi, um, made it inevitable that uh India would react and would dig in the heels and would demonstrate its independence and sovereignty from the United States.
	So this is what happened.
	What has been the effect on uh the Shanghai cooperation organization and on BRICS, the combined effect of the sanctions on uh Russia, the sanctions on China, the sanctions on India.
	Could one argue that the effect has been the opposite of what Trump wanted?
	A more unified, strengthened uh commercially uh adaptable and integrated Shanghai organization and BRICS.
	Well, that assumes we know what Donald Trump wanted.
	I'm saying that is an arguable case that he wanted the opposite of what he said he wanted.
	Nonetheless, let's come back to the question that you've posed, which is very serious.
	I'm very glad that you have uh brought the two subjects up together.
	Because in the broad public, there is confusion of what is BRICS and what is the Shanghai Cooperation uh organization.
	How are they different?
	Well, they are different.
	Uh at least in the most simplified way, we could say that that BRICS was from the beginning an economic and commercial trade organization uh to bring together these countries of the global south and Russia.
	Um for the sake of greater prosperity, trade were not going through the dollar and things like that.
	It was not primarily a geopolitical organization or certainly not a defense organization.
	Looking at the Shanghai uh cooperation organization or SCO, we're looking at something that was founded in at the start of the new millennium when terrorism, particularly uh the Islamic State, Islamic fundamentalism was rife,
	was a very big issue globally, and uh it was founded by China and by Russia, first of all, to secure the territory between them, for which they could be competitors in the United States, of course, is one of those hoping, you know, where they would be fierce competitors and would be at one another's throats.
	Well, they uh the Shanghai cooperation organization was precisely created to avoid that, to moderate their um their joint governance of the big territory and populist territory between them.
	It also uh as a security organization, it announced its goals to be anti, to combat terrorism and combat narco trading.
	And what we've seen are baby steps from that initial primarily security and regional look, Central Asia primarily, to a more broader Eurasian framework, extending all the way out to Belarus in the West and to the United Arab Emirates in the Southwest.
	So geographically it has expanded, although it's still Asia.
	And then the remit, the mission statement has been by baby steps going in the direction of economics, trade, and banking.
	And there was a big step, not a baby step, but a big step this past weekend when she announced the plans to create a SEO development bank.
	So what we see is the elements of BRICS are now being fully developed within a limited geographic area.
	BRICS is global.
	The SEO is regional, but of course the region takes in 40% of the world's population.
	Nonetheless, it is regional.
	It is from India, China, and Russia are the big players.
	What happened this weekend was yes, the remit has changed, the emission statement is broadened.
	And the role of India, I think, has been offered the possibility to be one of the three governing countries of SEO.
	Oh, that is profound.
	India was on the sidelines.
	India is on the governing board of BRICS, but it was not on the governing board of SEO.
	And now the SEO is becoming kind of regional BRICS.
	It is both logical and important.
	I also would like to introduce the remark that was made by by Glenn Decent when we had a recent conversation, and I think is very appropriate to understand what's going on.
	That uh as when Russia and China were involved in a security mission in SEO, uh, Russia and China are pretty balanced.
	Oh, yes, okay.
	China has a bigger army in manpower numbers, but Russia has a much more effective and battle practiced army.
	Uh so they are pretty balanced uh in military and security issues.
	When it becomes very um economic, banking, finance, well, the economy of China is many times uh the size of the Russian economy.
	And Russia would be a junior partner.
	By bringing in India as an equal partner, uh, Russia improves its feeling of comfort in SEO.
	This was Deason's observation, and I think it is very a very good insight.
	Very astute observation, and I'm grateful that you uh raised it.
	What is the uh significance of this Siberia II pipeline, which I guess will be the longest pipeline in the world by far, uh to deliver uh is it oil or natural gas, enlighten me from the top of Russia into the bowels of China?
	Well, it has several dimensions to it, and uh yes, it's primarily to double the amount of natural gas that Russia is delivering to China uh on pipeline.
	The Siberia, Power of Siberia One, which has been operating for several years, and is close to 50 million uh 50 billion cubic uh meters of gas a year.
	Well, now it itself will be raised uh as part of separate uh agreements that were reached this past weekend by another uh 12 billion cube uh uh cubic meters, and Siberia uh power of Siberia II, which has been uh in in talking, in discussions year after year.
	Uh I know two years in a row at the um the Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum, which is supposed to be the big platform for Russia to announce its uh investment projects in the forest.
	Each year there was discussion where the Chinese come in and sign it off, and they didn't.
	Uh this year, ahead of the ahead of the forum, this is the forum starts on Friday.
	Uh ahead of the forum, the Russians came out and said it has been done.
	And um, this was announced uh yesterday by the Financial Times, although they had to kick the tires and say that the financial details yet aren't yet in place.
	But they admitted this is a legally binding commitment to construct that that pipeline, which has an additional feature that it passes through Mongolia.
	It goes more directly to the interior of China, and from the interior, it passes all the way down to Shanghai.
	But its features are several, and they are not widely announced.
	So I'll add a couple of additional factors that Russian television talks about.
	That is one uh spurs of this pipeline will be feeding natural gas into parts of the Russian Far East that have not been served by any pipelines, and which are energy short.
	And for example, in the Far East Eastern Siberia, they will be building a major production center for fertilizer based on this gas.
	So Russia will be serving itself.
	And the trans the transiting of Mongolia is a very big issue.
	For Mongolia, it will be an important source of additional income.
	and it locks the three together.
	The United States has been doing its best to prize Mongolia away from Russia and China.
	Well, it's failed guys.
	This pipeline across Mongolia means Mongolia is fraternal country with Russia and China and not with the United States.
	And there's not much the United States can do about this unless they're going to uh engage in sabotage like on uh Nord Stream 2.
	How long will it take before we run?
	How long will it take to build this?
	Uh the early 30s.
	So I think about five, seven years or something like that.
	And it will be receiving gas from those gas fields which had been supplying Western Europe and are now underutilized because Western Europe is boycotting pipeline gas.
	That's a minute.
	Pipeline gas.
	The fact is that Europe is buying a lot of liquefied natural gas from Russia.
	Another topic for our uh next talk, the absurd decisions of uh Western Europe.
	Uh Professor Radaktor, thank you very much.
	Thanks for your time, as always.
	Thank you for the illuminating uh little lecture on BRICS uh and uh SCO.
	Very, very helpful and very timely.
	All the best.
	We'll see you again next week.
	Thank you.

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