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Aug. 12, 2025 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
25:54
COL. Douglas Macgregor : Is War With Iran Coming?
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Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Wednesday, August 13, 2025, Colonel Douglas McGregor joins us now.
Colonel McGregor, always a pleasure.
Thank you very much.
Let's start with Ukraine.
What is the state of affairs on the ground, on the battlefield, as we speak, two days before the meeting in Alaska between President Trump and President Putin?
Well, as you know, over the weekend, we had the largest strikeout.
And now what we've seen over the last couple of days are major breakthroughs.
And these breakthroughs are occurring largely because there's not much in front of the Russians anymore.
So they're smashing their way through defensive lines that are largely unoccupied.
Not completely, but in many cases, unoccupied.
And the interesting thing is to watch the Russians because they are nothing if not very, very deliberate and methodical.
They move on an axis that is large enough to accommodate thousands of troops, that has good transportation, medical support, evacuation support, logistical supplies, but most important on either side of the axis where they're moving, they have what I would call ISR dominance, that is intelligence surveillance reconnaissance from basically the smallest drone up to satellites.
So they're controlling the area as they move forward.
They don't have to be concerned about their flanks or the possibility that somebody may attack through them because all of these ISR systems are linked to artillery systems, rockets, missiles, and so forth.
What I'm trying to say is that you have this picture on the one side of Ukrainian forces that are literally bled white, that are falling apart.
Not for lack of courage or any of that sort of thing.
That's nonsense.
It's simply impossible for them to mount an effective resistance against the on-rushing Russians.
And then on the Russian side, you have this 21st century force, extraordinarily well-equipped, technologically savvy.
essentially knocking drones out of the air with either electronic warfare or other means and moving not at high speed but fast enough that the opposing force has no chance of recovering.
And right now, they keep talking about the so-called Azov formations.
I guess there's something like four, five, six, seven, eight brigades left.
I don't know what their strength is.
There's probably not much.
But these are the sort of diehard Nazis.
They seem to be nowhere in the path of the Russians.
I think they've beat a path elsewhere.
So I'm not sure there's really much in front of the advancing Russian forces.
So from a purely military standpoint, I would say this is the end of the war.
Is it fair to say that Russia is close to achieving its military objectives in the war if those objectives are the acquisition of the four oblasts?
Oh, well, that's been achieved.
But remember, the key thing for them has always been not so much capturing territory, but annihilating the Ukrainian forces on the ground.
That's the problem.
So they're very force-oriented in what they do.
Now, we may see finally a buildup of forces in various places of 100,000 or more that are large enough and well-supplied enough that they can move deeper.
I think you're going to see that in the direction of Zabarisha.
The bridges over the Dnieper are intact.
Zabarisha has real strategic value.
If they decide to cross the river, they can go north or south from there, attacking north to Kiev or south to Odessa.
I think those are the decisions that they're going to make now in the next couple of weeks.
And we're going to see more and more movement.
But the point is the Ukrainian force is almost annihilated.
There are still some people left.
And they're not going to stop.
As long as there's anyone from these Azov units around, I would expect the Russians toan areas, the Russian-speaking areas, yes.
But then the next question is, what are you going to do to secure the outcome of the war?
They're going to be victorious militarily.
That's not enough.
In other words, how do you come to an arrangement with somebody who is confident in the West that brings you the measure of security that you want?
All of this has been about protecting Russia.
This was never about conquering territory and marching west into Poland or Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia.
That's all nonsense.
And I think that's on the back of people's minds, right now in Moscow.
Well, that brings us to my next series of questions, which brings us to Friday.
I mean, how would you advise, in light of what you've just told us, how I wish you were there, but you're not here.
How would you advise President Trump?
What cards does he have to play when he meets with Vladimir Putin on Friday?
Well, I think first we need to keep in mind, Judge, and we've talked about this before, there is no strategy per se.
In other words, when the decision was made back in the 90s, we're going to expand NATO and keep pushing it.
And ultimately, we will encircle Russia and Russia will be compelled to join on our terms.
This was the talk in the 90s.
That was the talk, by the way, behind closed doors during the Kosovo Air campaign.
We're going to go all the way to Moscow.
This is going to change everything.
But there was no strategy for it.
It was kind of a wish list where people sit down and say, well, we really wish.
that Russia would fall apart.
We really wish that Iran could be destroyed.
We really wish, you know, this kind of thing, but no strategy, no coherent way to get there.
So now what you have is something that we've had for a while.
If you brought in the people that were there under Biden, I would go further all the way back to the original Trump administration, the people involved in foreign and defense policy are a lot like monkeys at the opera.
You know, you can take a group of monkeys to the opera and the monkeys will sit in the chair and they're fascinated by all the explosions and the sound and the fury on the stage, but the monkeys have no idea what the hell is going on on the stage.
Well, that's kind of what's in charge right now.
And in the center of this mess sits Donald Trump.
And Donald Trump is a brilliant marketer.
He's a very successful advertising genius, I would say.
He was a big success as a reality TV show host, but he knows nothing about Russia.
He doesn't understand Europe.
He doesn't understand where we fit in the world and where we don't.
And so I can't imagine under those circumstances anything happening.
What I do imagine is that the monkeys in the audience will yell and scream and holler and there'll be excitement, but the Russians are just going to sit there and sort of shake their heads in disbelief.
that people like this represent the United States of America because they're not going to see any evidence that anything we do or say can be trusted.
And I think that's the final problem.
There's no reason for them to trust us.
And if you have no trust, no understanding, how do you get an agreement that's meaningful?
So who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose over this meeting on Friday?
Well, first, we've already lost.
Our whole war, you know, pushed by law, And I think truthfully, most of them are now turning their attention to the Middle East.
Oh, they'll continue to reinforce stupidity whenever they get the chance in Ukraine or anywhere in Europe.
But I think there's a realization that this is over, that there's not a great deal that they can do.
Trump is there because he wants, as we've discussed in the past, to win.
In other words, you saw him with Azerbaijan and Armenia, the two leaders from these states who signed this piece of paper that allegedly will become a treaty.
Well, there's no guarantee that the respective parliamentary bodies in those countries will approve this or confirm it.
There's no evidence that we have the staying power right now as a nation to make any of it real.
But that's irrelevant.
You know, what President Trump got was the opportunity to sit between them, hold up this document, and smile ear to ear, and bill himself as the great peacemaker, dealmaker.
On the Russian side, it's very different.
They know that they're in the driver's seat.
They know that they have won.
The question is, what do they want?
And they know what they want.
They don't want a hostile regime in Kiev.
They want a government in Kiev that will be fundamentally neutral, divorced from NATO, and pose no threat to Russia.
That's what they want.
They're trying to figure out how do we get there when there's no one in the West, particularly no one from this administration, who's really the problem.
So they'll sit, they'll be polite, and there may be some discussions on the side, I think, about nuclear weapons.
There may be an effort on our part, I hope, to suggest that we reconvene and go back to the INF Treaty and look at what we can do to salvage some of the things in there and sort of reduce the nuclear danger, get these nuclear weapons that were just flown into England out.
I think those kinds of things could be discussed.
There's somebody said something about the Arctic, but the problem is if you're going to try and achieve anything in the Arctic, you've got to get everybody who has Arctic coastline to a conference and i'm sure that's what president putin would say we're we're comfortable with where we are in the arctic right now uh but if you want to change something or you want to codify something you've got to bring everybody in you know in other words what the russians are is methodical they're methodical they've prepared these are professional diplomats and
soldiers they they know what it takes to arrive at a real serious agreement They see no evidence for that whatsoever in the American camp.
There has never been anything like that now for at least two decades.
Before we, or as we transition into what I want to discuss with you about whether or not the Israelis and Americans are contemplating another war against Iran, is there any country in the world besides Israel that uses its military deliberately to target, hunt down, and murder journalists?
Well, you're asking the wrong guy.
That's an area about which I know very little.
I don't know.
There could be, but certainly the Israelis win first prize at this point.
Two months ago, President Trump embraced the ISIS leader that he refers to as the president of Syria, notwithstanding, there's no democratic process there, notwithstanding the horrific background of this person, Mr. Al Jolani.
Yesterday, Al Jolani asked the Russians to help him resist the imperialism, imperialistic tendencies of the Israeli military.
Where is this going?
Well, it is very odd.
I mean, after all, this is the man that President Trump embraced, said was a fine fellow and a very smart man and all this kind of nonsense, who's obviously a criminal and a mass murderer.
He now wants protection from the mass murderers that are attacking southern Syria.
He's ostensibly turned to the Russians.
The Russians are interested in that strip of territory that is controlled.
right now by their forces and the Alawites, the people that were dislodged from power in Damascus.
And that's on the Syrian coast, the Mediterranean coast.
They're interested in that.
That's what they.
that's what they want to retain i don't think the Russians are particularly interested in patrolling in support of Jolani and others like him in any sort of conflict against the Israelis.
That doesn't mean they love the Israelis.
It doesn't mean they're the enemies of the Israelis.
I'm just not sure that's something that the Russians would want to become involved in.
But it is kind of a slap in our face because we did everything we could to put this man into power in support of the Mossad and MI6 in London.
Now all of a sudden, you know, our biggest ally, our greatest ally, is interested in absorbing as much of Syria as possible through the Druze and the Kurds.
And he's calling for help and assistance.
It's a very strange set of circumstances.
I don't see us doing a lot, and I don't see the Russians intervening down there.
Has Netanyahu been sabre-rattling about attacking Iran?
And if he is, would he do so without the tacit approval of President Trump?
I think whatever Netanyahu does, will be immediately approved by President Trump.
I think the notion that President Trump is a free agent who is looking after first and foremost America's national security interest is simply delusional.
I think Mr. Netanyahu is in charge.
I've said that now for a long time.
I still think he is.
And whatever he wants, he's going to get.
We have to understand that Mr. Netanyahu can do what he does because there is a small group, a minority of people with a great deal of money in Washington, D.C., New York City, and London.
the bankers, the banking system, the financial elites that control everything that President Trump wants to do in foreign policy.
Now, he has leverage domestically but i don't think he has a lot of leverage so whether or not uh president netanyahu or prime minister netanyahu gets on the phone and says look i'm going to launch this attack i just want to let you know uh and here here's your warning it's going to happen soon whether or not he does that probably is irrelevant uh he's going to be able to do pretty much what he wants right now and that will continue as long as he and the people that back him,
and I'm talking about Mr. Netanyahu, as well as Mr. Trump, control the Congress and control the White House.
You know, this is a group of people that surround President Trump.
who are, I would say, 200% Israel firsters.
I realize that for all of your education, your graduate from West Point, a PhD in military history and all your years.
Actually, I'm not a PhD in history.
So I'm glad you brought that up because I'm sick of people saying that.
I have a doctoral dissertation was in international relations.
and my master's was comparative politics.
But when people say, what did you study?
I always say the same.
All right.
That means Germans and Russians.
All right, Colonel, that's even better for my question.
You're not a lawyer, but you understand these things.
Is Donald Trump culpable for war crimes in Gaza?
I think strictly speaking, yes, our government is culpable.
He's at the head of it.
Does he really understand that?
Does he grasp it?
That's a different question entirely.
and if you put him in the dock and you started interrogating him and asking him questions as any good attorney would do i think people would be shocked at what he doesn't know because i'm not convinced that he has a fundamental grasp on any of it and again from his vantage point he I can't make any decisions that would cross the Israeli lobby and obviously Mr. Netanyahu.
So why should I worry a great deal about it?
And I think he's actually begun in his own way to try and turn away from things that he can't control.
For instance, in Ukraine, one of the things that could happen as a result of this meeting that occurs in Alaska.
is that he walks out and says, you know, we had a great discussion.
We agreed on many things, but clearly we're not ready for an agreement yet.
And there's not a great deal that I can do about this situation because my European allies and Mr. Zelensky, want something very different.
Mr. Putin has done what he can do, but he still wants something very different.
And so it's time for me to turn my attentions elsewhere.
I mean, that's not impossible.
Now, some people will say he can't do that.
Well, in reality, the government that he has right now is already on autopilot.
In other words, the foreign and defense establishments, they're really on autopilot.
We're back to where we were during the first term.
It doesn't make a great deal of difference what he may say or do.
They're going to do what they're going to do anyway.
So he may say, I'm washing my hands of this but in truth we're going to continue to do the same old thing when you get to the Middle East it's different he that's a much stickier issue for him he he has to be involved in that and he is how do you explain his willingness to embrace Jolani knowing that Jolani is murdering thousands of people on a routine basis how do you embrace Erdogan who is a big backer of all of this How do you embrace the people in Azerbaijan,
this Aliyev regime?
You know that this thing with Armenia has very little staying power.
I don't see anything really good coming out of this.
This is all about encircling Russia, splitting Russia from Iran.
It's all the same strategy.
But he's on that ride.
He's strapped in.
He's on the roller coaster.
He can't get off.
That's different.
But I think in Eastern Europe, he's probably predisposed to say, look, I've done all I can do.
I can't do anything else.
It's interesting you say that because yesterday it appeared to be an offhanded comment, but it has some legs, as we say in the media today.
Vice President Vance said, we're finished funding the accordion.
Now, again, I don't know if it was a comment that he made without thinking about it.
If he ran it past the president first, if this is the way they want to set the table for Alaska, I don't know.
At the present time, we are continuing, as I understand it, you may correct me if I'm wrong, to supply them with the military equipment at the same pace and levels we did under the same time.
Joe Biden and had been in the past eight months, and that the vance statement was an outlier what do you think Well, you say at the same pace, I don't think that's possible because we simply don't have the ammunition, the missiles, the rockets, and so forth, the equipment to send.
So I wouldn't say at the same pace.
The promises are there.
You're still talking about billions of dollars of equipment that people are promising the Ukrainians.
And I think there's an increasing awareness that this stuff will never arrive because the Ukrainian government and this Ukrainian state itself will collapse long before that.
I mean, that's the reality.
That's why I'm saying it may not make any difference to Donald Trump.
what JD Vance says publicly about anything.
He may take the view of, well, let's make virtue of necessity instead of allowing people to know that we have failed.
And, you know, he's tried routinely to blame Biden for everything, but he's taken ownership and is very much part of it now.
So instead of saying we failed, the war is over and we've lost, we'll just say, well, we're finished with this.
We're not going to do that anymore.
It's all meaningless.
It doesn't matter.
None of these people are telling the truth.
Everything is for shock and awe, political shock and awe.
And remember the base that's sitting out there that voted for him, they're waiting for evidence that he's going to do any of the things that he said.
And that's the problem for him in foreign and defense policy.
He can't.
He just doesn't have the maneuver room.
So fine.
Let JD Vance say anything he wants.
And I don't think anybody's going to pay much attention to it all right let's look at the flip side of what Vance said and of the as you point out decreasing pace at which we're sending military gear there are we dangerously low ourselves Colonel oh absolutely and I think to some extent you had Colonel Astor who came on I don't know if he pronounces his name Astor or Astori I think it's Astor.
He was brilliant and terrific and he's a big fan of yours.
Yeah, well, he's right.
And everything he said was spot on.
He's not the only one.
I mean, I talk to people all the time that are on the inside that just are worried sick that we'll push ourselves into a confrontation with the Russians or the Chinese or Iranians or somebody without understanding that after three or four days, you're out of ammo.
What are you going to use in response?
There's also a greater sensitivity to the recognition that the situation inside Iran has changed.
The air defenses are far, far more rigorous and integrated now than they were previously.
The Russians have been in there working very hard to help the Iranians so that if Mr. Netanyahu does launch another attack, which I think is inevitable.
I really do.
I think it'll happen probably in September, but it could happen earlier.
Whenever Mr. Netanyahu gives a speech and he addresses the Iranian people and he tells them, we love you, we're your friends, just overthrow this heinous regime.
You know, another attack is coming any day.
Yeah.
And he gave a speech like that just two days ago.
Right, exactly.
So I think that's coming.
It doesn't matter what we want or anything else because Mr. Netanyahu is in charge.
So that's going to happen.
And I think his story is absolutely correct in everything that he said.
And yes, we are dangerously low.
And again, this is something that people that I know in the defense industry have talked about for years and nobody ever pays attention to it, Judge.
Where is our surge capacity?
What is impressive about the Russian arsenal of military power has been it's not a question of simply ramping up assembly lines and manufacturing capability.
It's the ability to ramp up quickly and dramatically, decisively.
So that instead of producing 600 widgets every week, you produce 2,000.
Well, we're still producing 600 a year and we we should have if we were serious about any of this gone to something in the neighborhood of about 6 000 a year but we haven't and as long as we persist in the illusion that we are this great invincible invulnerable unchallengable superpower but at the same time do nothing to support that myth we're going to be embarrassed at some point it's it's coming it's inevitable The emperor
in Washington doesn't have very much clothing, judge.
Colonel McGregor, thank you very much, my dear friend.
Thank you for letting me flip-flop across the board on these various hotspots.
I will see you Saturday.
Right.
And I very much look forward to it where you, Professor Sachs, Anya Parampol, and her less attractive half, Max Blumenthal.
Hey, listen, Max is a hero.
Come on.
Yes, Max is a hero.
And I love to bust his chops.
The four of you will be on a panel and I will be questioning you.
Unfortunately, we have 25 minutes for the four of you as opposed to 25 minutes for each of you.
But I will do my best to keep the conversation going.
The audience will love it and it will be live streamed right here.
Good.
Thank you, Colonel.
See you Saturday.
Safe travels.
All the best.
Same to you.
Thanks, John.
Thank you.
And coming up at 1.30 this afternoon, the aforementioned target of my lovable Barbs, Max Blumenthal, at 2 o'clock, Pepe Escobar at 3 o'clock from antiwar.com, good friend of the show, Kyle Anzalone.
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