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Nov. 27, 2024 - Judging Freedom - Judge Andrew Napolitano
26:42
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow : Russia’s Deadly New Missile.
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Hi, everyone.
Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
Today is Wednesday, November 27th, 2024, Thanksgiving week here in the United States.
Professor Gilbert Doctorow joins us now.
Professor Doctorow, a pleasure, my dear friend.
Thank you for joining us.
We have been talking almost nonstop with your colleagues on this show about the significance militarily and geopolitically, and I know your field is geopolitics, not military, of the Russian, a Russian, It is a big deal for itself and also for what it tells us about us.
The most important features of the Ereshnik were already on view in 2018.
In the Sarma intercontinental ballistic missile, which had in its nosecone 12 avant-garde hypersonic missiles.
The same principle as we see in Oreshnik.
Oreshnik has six hypersonic blocks, they call them, which are individually targeted and which coast down to their target at 10 Mach, 10 times the speed of sound.
The 2018 ICBM had 20 Mach avant-garde missiles aboard.
The real technical challenge, as far as I understand, was to fly in those hypersonic blocks or the MIRV missiles that are part of the delivery package.
At these enormous speeds and to control them for precise targeting.
This was the enormous achievement of Russian physicists and engineers for 2018.
It was overlooked completely by us in the West.
It was explained to the public on the March 1st.
speech to the nation, the State of the Nation address, as we like to call it, that Putin delivered then, which was about a month before the presidential elections.
And it was made light of by our press and by our experts who spoke about it as a bluff, as a pre-electoral empty speech by a man who was very But the fact that the Russians could have, as Putin later explained, done something that they had not achieved in 70 years of the Soviet Union, pulled ahead of the United States technologically in arms.
We know that they pulled ahead of the United States in Sputnik when it was launched, but not in the arms race.
There, the United States was always years ahead, going back to Who had the first nuclear weapons?
Here, in this case, Russia pulled a whole generation ahead of the United States, and maybe as much as 10 years ahead.
10 years in politics is forever.
What's important about the Ereshnik, and very few of my peers have discussed, is the timing issue.
The Ereshnik has been introduced to the world as a 5,000 kilometers is the top, and that's where it stands.
It has been introduced two years ahead of the American tomahawks that were promised to or were threatened to Mr. Schultz as being based in Germany in readiness for what could be a preemptive attack on Russia.
Two years ahead.
So this is an amazing feat that this weapon has been brought out.
Was Western Intel, particularly CIA and MI6, caught off guard by this or stated differently?
Did the Pentagon, Whitehall, 10 Downing Street, the White House even have a hint that this was coming?
They had more than a hint.
As I said, the basic technology was already shown to have been developed and to be introduced into serial production in 2018.
So there's no excuse for this.
But I think that they, like the general public, and even particularly like Russians who left the Soviet Union and who thought they know Russia, We're saying about Mr. Putin's announcement in 2018 that it was an absolute bluff.
There's no way the Russians could achieve a technological advantage with a budget for military purposes ten times smaller than the United States.
And there are reasons.
I don't want to be too unkind to those who would have discounted Russia's technical abilities to achieve what they have achieved.
I was reminded of this when I was in my last visit to I went to Petersburg just two weeks ago, and I got into a taxi.
Most of the taxis I got into were crossovers from China, which were wonderful to ride in.
But this happened to be a Lada, a new Lada.
What is a Lada?
A Russian car?
It's a Russian car.
It's a car that was built in the original Fiat.
A joint venture with the Russian automobile industry.
It is a modern looking car.
A modest but modern looking.
This is not an ancient looking car.
It's modern looking.
But the technical achievements of the automobile engineers are not much to persuade us that Russians are capable of engineering.
The driver was complaining.
He demonstrated when he tried to start the car.
It would not start, because the Russians had just gone over from the key ignition to the push-button ignition, and they never quite made it.
So the only good thing about the car is it didn't have an American or Western feature of the engine cutting out when you were to light.
Otherwise, this poor fellow in his taxi wouldn't just have been stuck at the curb, as he was with me, but he would have been stuck in the middle of traffic.
Well, my point is that in many consumer goods, Russians never were at the forefront.
Their capable engineers in consumer goods went to California and they started Google and things like that.
But that does not mean that Russians don't have capable engineers.
They have loads of them, but they tend to be patriotic.
And they're working for the government to make missiles to shoot at us.
Okay.
How do you think the Kremlin in general, President Putin in particular, regards the continued U.S., U.K., and Ukraine attacks on Russian land using Atakums, American, and Storm Shadow, British?
He reacted with the Sureshnik after the first attack.
And then there was another one, as if the West is taunting him.
It's a very pertinent question.
And I'll bring you up to date with the latest news on Russian state television, which I take.
As significant for understanding President Putin's state of mind.
The people whom I listen to, well, they reason like you and me and others on your show.
They are sentient beings.
They understand reality and they're not caught in ideologies.
And when I listened to It was the first time that I've seen him ashen-faced.
He has in recent weeks been confident, not smug, but confident that the Russians were well on their way to achieving the goals that Putin set out in February 2022.
Last night he was ashen-faced.
And why?
He said, "I have to tell you." That the Ministry of Defense has just announced that there were, in the past several days, two strikes of Atakums within Korsk region.
And in both cases, there were multiple missiles fired at the Russian targets, of which most were shot down, I think five out of six, something like this.
But in each case, at least one.
Either wholly or in part, after being intercepted, did reach target and caused some damage, unquantified, to the equipment, which was radar installation, I believe.
In any case, it was technical equipment that was manned and caused injuries to several Russian soldiers who were manning this equipment.
And that our ministry is preparing a formidable retaliation.
I put that together with a remark by one of the panelists, expert panelists on the show, who said that when we were in training, in this military training, and we were using, I don't know whether it was automatic weapons, Or some kind of weapon.
We were told, this is what you do.
You prepare yourself to fire, and then you do this and that.
And then if there is no response from those whom you are threatening, you fire over their heads.
And if there is no response to that, you fire at their heads.
And that's where we are today.
Our firing of the Arashnik into Dnepto-Petrovsk.
And destroying that military complex, we're shooting over your heads.
Our next firing will not be over your heads.
So this is why he was ashen-faced.
Will that firing be at the suppliers of these weapons?
Stated differently, will they attack the brand new American airbase?
In Poland, will they attack British troops or British technicians amassing in Poland in preparation for their execution of the storm shadow?
Or are they going to continue to attack Ukraine military targets?
It's anyone's guess.
That it will be a severe attack is perfectly clear.
That it will be much more damaging and costly in lives, most likely, than what happened a week ago.
Is almost certain.
But I would say that if you want to look at a hierarchy of targets in terms of desirability, if the Russians had a wish list, I think the first point in a wish list would be to strike the United Kingdom.
The Brits have battened down various airfields they have in anticipation that there could be a strike within Britain.
However, Britain falls from the top place because Brits have nuclear-armed missiles on their submarines, and Mr. Starmer is sufficiently irrational to possibly use them against Russia at this early stage.
So the Russians are unlikely to do that.
The second, as you say, is Poland, because of the recently opened base for this dual purpose.
Supposedly dual-purpose, but actually single-purpose attack on Russia for a decapitating strike.
These are two bases that took about seven years to install, and this is the Aegis onshore in Poland, another one in Romania.
So that is a second choice.
Poland cannot respond, but of course it would invoke Article 5, and so it's a bit risky, unpredictable.
How rational the Americans will be.
I'd say the third down the list is to strike Moldova, which is not a NATO, which is a major point of marshalling and onward delivery as a logistics center for American military deliveries to Ukraine.
It's not a NATO, and so it's fair game.
And the fourth would be another strike in In Ukraine, and I would name Kiev itself, with something like Oreshnik, because Kiev is a holy city to Russians.
It's the mother of all cities.
They have been reluctant to strike Kiev for that reason.
But with the Oreshnik, there is almost no damage, no collateral damage, to a specific bunker or hardened site.
That protects American generals who are running the war in Ukraine or protects Mr. Zelensky.
Our friend and colleague Larry Johnson reports this morning that the Russians have showered portions of Kiev with warnings in writing for the civilians to depart.
Subterfuge or...
I think he's right.
I think it is not a subterfuge.
The Russians at this point are not playing games.
And that's, I think, the major message they want to get through to Washington, London, and Berlin.
That game playing has ended.
They're playing for keeps.
And Kyiv would be a very good target.
But as I said, if they use the Oresnik, there will be very little damage to the city at large.
What do you think, with your finger on the pulse of Kremlin thinking, President Putin thinks President Biden is up to?
His administration was just roundly, overwhelmingly repudiated by the electorate.
His successor is very much the opposite from him in many respects, though.
We're seeing neocon people appointed by or indicated he will appoint by Donald Trump.
He has two months left in office, and he's accelerating a war that his proxy is losing.
So, scratching my head, how does Putin analyze that?
They're watching the same things.
That you and I are watching.
They were watching Admiral Bauer, and they were in shock over what he said.
They're also watching what Donald Trump does not say, and they're in shock over his silence.
So their emotions, I'd say, are not far removed from those irrational people in the United States.
And you draw the conclusions from that.
If you are alarmed, and you have reason to be, I think Putin is alarmed.
There are rumors that Joe Biden is going to supply nuclear warheads for use on American missiles in Ukraine.
Is this taken seriously by Russia?
No, because they understand that they would then be obliged to destroy the United States.
That is beyond the pale of discussion.
One of President-elect Donald Trump's senior foreign policy advisors, actually designated right now, I don't know if this is going to change, nobody's actually been nominated, and as you know, can be nominated until Trump is sworn in.
To be number two on the National Security Council is Sebastian Gorka.
You may be familiar with Dr. Gorka.
I want to show you a particularly antagonistic and bellicose comment he made just the other day, and I'm going to ask you what your reaction is and what you think President Putin's reaction would be if he saw this and gave any credibility to it.
Chris, cut number 10. I'll give one tip away that the president has mentioned.
He will say to that murderous former KGB colonel, that thug who runs the Russian Federation, you.
We'll negotiate now.
Or the aid that we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts.
That's how he will force those gentlemen to come to an arrangement that stops the bloodshed.
Who in their right mind would think that that's a way to negotiate with Vladimir Putin?
Well, this comes back to the fundamental question.
Will Mr. Putin show forbearance?
As he did in 2016, after Trump won then, and the administration outgoing did what it could to spoil relations with Russia.
And Russia showed forbearance, which I think it later regretted.
They will not do that now.
Their operating assumption is that whoever is in charge in the United States is actually a front man for the deep state.
And is not in control of foreign policy or military policy.
Even if that human being is someone as self-confident and headstrong as Donald Trump?
Well, they have seen him for four years and they were not pleased with what they saw because relations between the two countries tumbled steadily downward during that whole period.
Therefore, they do not give this new Trump The benefit of doubt and his absolute silence today to present on this whole question of the attackum's use or, as you said, the handover of nuclear weapons to Ukraine.
His silence on these issues does not give them confidence that he is worth waiting for.
Does the Kremlin think That Joe Biden and his friends who are elites in Western Europe either want to start World War III or want to extend substantially the Ukrainian conflict so that a catastrophe is dropped into the lap of Donald Trump.
Does the Kremlin believe that?
I think they do.
And they have good reason to believe it.
Just even yesterday's recording by the Brussels bureau chief of Russian state television news, Anastasia Popova, she was outside the European institutions where there was The discussion,
or rather outside of NATO buildings, where there is discussion of what comes next, the meeting of the senior diplomats from the NATO countries on what to do next over Ukraine.
And there were no direct briefings to the press, but there were whispers coming out, and none of it was encouraging to the Russians.
So the Europeans, with the exception of Slovakia and Hungary, are remaining steadfast with the absurd policies that they held to before Trump's victory.
Do the Russians, does the Kremlin analyze the thinking of Russia?
They don't speak of it in those terms.
What they speak about it is a question of realism versus ideology-driven.
Of course, the ideology in question is neocon, but what bothers them most is the absence of realism.
Or an ability to absorb what the real world is doing around them.
That is what alarms the Russian elites who are part of the entourage of Putin.
Here's President Putin himself shortly after the Arashnik was fired.
Arguing that we are entitled to strike back anybody that strikes at us or finances it.
Cut number two.
We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities.
I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that are hatching plans to use their military contingents against Russia seriously think about this.
Does the West take him seriously?
I mean, surely they should, Professor.
I don't think they do.
There's still this underappreciation of Russian might.
There is still this residual thinking about Russia as it was on its knees or on its back during the 1990s.
They cannot fathom that the country could have reconstituted itself.
They cannot begin to imagine that this thug could have saved his country and is really a national hero.
It's beyond their comprehension, which is terribly sad.
But the Russians take that all in.
Does the Russian, forgive me if this is naive, does the Russian government have a deep state?
Does it have a part of the government that has unseen powers, is not accountable, doesn't change, gets its way?
Or does Vladimir Putin control everything?
Well, he doesn't control everything.
A misunderstanding.
He's spoken of as a dictator, which is utter nonsense.
Not because they have elections.
Yes, they have elections.
But because there are other forces, as there should be and would be in a country of 145 million, with many competing, conflicting economic and political interests.
Of course, he is a politician.
He has to juggle competing claims.
On resources and on direction of the country.
So this man is a remarkable juggler of competing interests.
He never wiped out the liberals from the people whom he inherited when he took over from Boris Yeltsin.
They are finally establishing a new vision of what the state's purpose is.
That is a kind of a market economy that is driven by certain social requirements.
It is a dirigisme, a directed economy in the French style.
This creation of the national sense, the national purpose, has taken 30 years to achieve.
The war has hastened it.
Professor Doctorow, thank you very much, my dear friend.
I know you're in Europe, but happy Thanksgiving from one American to another, from my family to yours.
Thank you very much for accommodating our time schedule in this shortened week, and thank you for the privilege of allowing me to pick your brain as you do every week.
I hope you'll join us again next week as well.
Well, thanks, and happy Thanksgiving to you and to the viewers of this program.
Thank you.
Thank you, Professor Doctorow.
We do have a busy day coming up for you at 11 o 'clock this morning.
Max Blumenthal at 2 this afternoon.
Professor John Mearsheimer at 3 this afternoon.
Phil Giraldi at 4 this afternoon.
Just back from eight days in Palestine.
Matt Ho.
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