Iran Strikes Back at Trump and the United States – The Middle East is absolutely tense! / Scott Ritt
Scott Ritt analyzes Iran's alleged strategic retaliation following a U.S.-Israel strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 170 schoolgirls, utilizing hypersonic missiles to threaten Israeli leadership and the Strait of Hormuz. He warns of a nuclear escalation probability exceeding 50%, predicting Russia and China will broker a peace deal where Iran places its program on the table alongside Israel's under international inspection. Ultimately, Ritt foresees Trump facing economic collapse within a month as sanctions lift, concluding that this existential war against the Twelver Shia faith will end with the regime surviving but nuclear programs mutually exposed to prevent further destruction. [Automatically generated summary]
You, Israel, carried out the surprise attack against Iran.
This is a war of choice.
You didn't need to do this.
You opted into this.
Now Iran has said, we're not finished till you're done.
So Israel doesn't get an off-ramp.
And the choice isn't with Donald Trump.
What hubris?
What arrogance?
The choice is with Iran.
This war finishes when Iran says it's done, and Iran won't say it's done until the United States is evicted from the Middle East and Israel is destroyed.
Welcome to the reality, Israel.
You created this.
Did you see the IRGC's new targeting guidance?
Now that they've eliminated the air defense capability, and we saw that last night, Israel has no air defense capability, none whatsoever.
Iran will only fire missiles with a one-ton warhead, meaning that the day of coming in with small warheads is over.
Israel is now ready to get the find out aspect of the fool around equation.
And all other nations that want to play this game will do as well.
So again, to the United Arab Emirates, please don't be stupid because you will be taken off the map.
The same thing with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia.
Azerbaijan needs to understand that as well.
Iran's not playing around.
They have missiles, thousands of missiles that they haven't used yet.
New missiles, hypersonic missiles with huge warheads.
Very accurate.
Remember when we talked about how the Israeli, they're down to 12 launchers.
Well, I think that's been proven to be a lie because Iran is salvoing far more than 12 missiles at a time now against the Iranians have a plan.
They have a game plan.
Everything's going according to their plan.
They're collapsing the global economy as we speak.
Again, that's the fool around aspect of it.
You're going to find out.
Oil through the roof.
And if this continues, there won't be oil to be produced in the Middle East because if Israel keeps, and this is, again, a message to those people in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and elsewhere.
If you sit back and do nothing while Israel strikes energy production facilities inside Iran, understand you will pay the price.
You will be destroyed.
And there's nothing you can do to stop it.
Your air defenses don't work either.
And you're about ready to get hit with one ton plus warheads.
The level of destruction will be mind-boggling.
So I just wish people would stop pretending that Israel and the United States have a vote anymore.
They created this problem.
They've lost this war.
They don't get to dictate the outcome other than acknowledging their defeat and doing what Iran demands.
And in the case of the United States, that's get the hell out of the Middle East.
And with Israel, stop playing the great Israeli game.
Start recognizing an independent Palestinian state and learn how to live in peace and harmony with your neighbors.
The Gulf nations are in a tricky position because they've been critical of this war.
There's a Gulf, a Emirati billionaire that put out a statement criticizing Trump.
I'm not sure if you've seen it.
His name is Al-Haptur, blaming Trump for dragging the Gulf into this war.
And today he put out another statement attacking Lindsey Graham because Lindsey Graham is apparently complaining of the Gulf that didn't join the war.
So he's criticizing Lindsey Graham.
But at the same time, they're also critical of Iran for striking them.
And they're saying that any new deal with Iran should limit their ballistic missile program.
That's not official.
There's been reports of that.
Are they pretending they didn't give safe haven to the United States?
Are they pretending there's no American bases on their soil?
Are they pretending the CIA hasn't used their soil to carry out aggressive actions against Iran?
Are they really trying to play the we're innocent card here?
Too sad, so bad, baby.
No, Iran's seen through that.
Hey, UAE, you lost.
You gambled.
You picked the wrong side.
You picked America and you're finding out America can't save you.
And now you're going to pretend that you have some leverage over Iran to say that Iran can't have a ballistic missile program.
Iran's ballistic missile program will continue to exist in perpetuity because it gives them leverage over stupid people like you who gave safe heaven to the United States so the United States could collude with Israel to carry out a surprise attack against Iran that killed their supreme leader.
Have you forgotten that?
I mean, it's amazing how I can't believe the stupidity of these people, the arrogance of these people, the hubris of these people to carry out a surprise attack that assassinated the supreme leader of Iran and then pretend that they somehow have some leverage and say on how this conflict ends.
No.
No, you picked the wrong side.
If Trump seeks an off-ramp, if Trump seeks an off-ramp, Iran would not take it.
Why would they allow him to take it?
Let's just think this thing through.
Iran didn't war.
We know that.
This war was started by Israel and the United States.
It was a war meant to be of existential proportions to eliminate the Iranian regime.
This was it, all in.
This is like going to a poker table and going all in and suddenly realizing that you got the loose in hand saying, can I ask some of those ships back?
No, you went all in.
You lost.
It's over.
Iran said, okay, this is now an existential game.
Meaning, just put yourself in the Iranian seat.
They've paid a heavy price.
I mean, what's happened to them is horrific.
Not just the assassination of their supreme leader, but the destruction of their infrastructure, the slaughter of 170 innocent school girls, and on and on and on we can go.
So they've paid this price, but now they're winning.
They're going to win.
It's done.
It's over.
Why do you say they're winning?
Because they are closing the straight of Hormuz.
So I agree with you there.
And I do think, by the way, I do think I agree with you that they are winning.
But I wouldn't define it that they're winning militarily.
You talked about the one-ton warhead, but the attacks on the Gulf Nations, most of them have been intercepted a lot more than I expected.
And the attacks have dropped significantly.
The attacks on Israel, less so, but they're still significantly less than the 12-day war.
And there's been talks about them sinking a U.S. warship.
That hasn't happened.
American bases took a hit, but the attacks have dropped drones and missiles by over 90%.
So would you agree that strategically they're winning because they're closing the trade of Hormuz, but militarily, it's a bit different?
No.
Why would you say that?
If your targets are radars and communication facilities and you've destroyed the radars and the communication facilities, do you need to send the same amount of weapons in?
They've accomplished what they wanted to accomplish.
They blinded the United States.
They made it impossible for the integrated air defense to communicate with one another.
They've basically made Israel defenseless.
You want to pretend that Israel's not getting struck?
What happened last night?
Whose house got hit?
Netanyahu's house.
Whose house also got hit?
Ben Gavir's house.
They're starting to take out.
I was just waiting for a.
And now the FBI is starting to take out my internet.
But the point is.
So you said Netanyahu and Ben Gavir's house were hit yesterday.
And Iran is starting to target Israeli leadership.
Israel will not walk away from this clean.
They will not walk away from this intact.
When this war ends, Iran, if Iran stops the war now.
I think it just got us cutting out.
He's going to just come out and drop back in.
But just going to give you guys some updates because there's a few things that are happening behind the scenes.
All right, Scott, you're back with us.
I was going to read out some updates for the audience because there's a lot of developments that are happening right now.
There's a lot of talks, and even the markets are reacting.
I think Trump's giving a speech today, and there's a lot of talks about Trump seeking an off-ramp, and that's starting to get a lot of narrative today.
Not sure if how much truth there is to it, but you're saying that Iran would not accept that.
You're talking about Israeli defenses, but at the same time, American bases are not being hit the same way they were in the first few days.
I think you'll say this is a war of attrition.
There's talks on the American side that most of the missile launchers were hit.
The drones are obviously a lot harder to hit the drone factories.
Mario, no missile launchers have been hit.
Let's just stop the nonsense.
Have you seen the evidence?
What we know is they're hitting decoys.
I mean, they may have hit one or two missile launchers, but the point is, Iran's missile capability to deliver missiles has not been interdicted at all.
Zero.
Zero.
This mathematical.
But the missiles, why did they drop the amount of missiles they fired?
Because they should continue.
I understand it's a war of attrition, but if they keep firing missiles, then the aid defense systems, the munitions that are already depleted, will deplete even further.
Everyone's talking about depleted munitions on the Israeli side, on the American side, on the Gulf side.
So wouldn't it make sense for Iran to keep firing those missiles to deplete the munitions even further?
Well, they already have.
I think Israel is down to firing PAC 2 Patriots, which means they can't shoot anything down.
They're out of PAC-3s, which means they're already shooting anything down.
That was proven last night.
They simply can't shoot it down.
So if you're Iran, do you continue to fire 15-year-old missiles, which is what they've been firing, which, you know, to absorb missile defense?
Or do you now transition to the big guns?
Now that they can't shoot you down, now that they can't defend, now it's time to deliver the real damage, the real harm.
They said they're going to turn Tel Aviv upside down.
This war doesn't end till Tel Aviv is turned upside down.
Israel doesn't get to carry out a surprise attack against Iran and walk away clean.
That isn't going to happen.
There will be a price that's going to be paid.
And the same thing with the United States.
Iran will not accept an off-ramp because to allow a ceasefire to take place at this time means you simply allow the United States and Israel to hit the reset button and then you're going to do this all over again.
This has to be the last time Israel ever thinks about launching an attack against Iran.
It's over for Israel.
It's done.
Netanyahu gambled and he lost.
And the proof is that they're looking for an off-ramp.
If Israel was confident, remember, just yesterday, they were saying we're in it for the long run.
This war could last a long time.
Now they're looking for an off-ramp.
Why?
Because they know the truth.
They are defenseless and Iran's about ready to bring the hammer.
And they know that and they know what's about to happen.
So they're looking for an off-ramp.
It's an act of desperation.
Why would Iran concede all of the advantages it has accrued so far?
We're blowing.
Look at the stupidity.
You know this.
You've seen the images.
We're dropping bombs on painted targets on the ground.
We're dropping bombs on painted targets on the ground.
This is not all of them, but this is not all of them.
There's a lot of videos as well of strikes where you see the explosion that shows that something was hit.
There's also ones of painted targets that were here.
But I wouldn't say all of them.
Like my position, obviously you disagree, but my position is that on the missile launcher side, a significant amount of them were hit.
And the issue is really the drones, especially when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz and how expensive it is to intercept those drones.
You know, you could use a CRAM, but a CRAM covers a very small, a very small distance.
But if you're going to be able to strike all these different targets, all these infrastructure in the Gulf, the American bases across the Gulf, Israel, the Strait of Hormuz, it makes it very difficult to intercept the drones.
And this is what Iran's, this is the way Iran could win this war strategically.
They're going to win the war strategically with missiles.
Again, I just, you do know that I'm a missile guy.
That's what I did for a living.
Okay.
I inspected them.
I hunted them.
I know them.
The missiles that Iran are firing right now use a launcher that is geared to those missiles.
So even if, let's say, Iran's firing 15-year-old missiles, the missile launcher being used for those missiles is not usable for the newer missiles.
You need a different launcher.
So if all Iran has been doing is firing 15-year-old missiles, and let's say you're right, they've been knocking them out.
Although, I mean, last night, did they really knock them out?
Because the missiles are still coming.
The next generation of missiles hasn't even been deployed to the field yet.
The United States and Israel hasn't had a chance to target them yet.
They're still safeguarded.
So those launchers haven't been destroyed.
They're still there.
And now they're getting ready to be introduced into the battle at a time when there are no defenses.
So, no, with all due respect, this is a part of the war that I know better than anybody.
I have fought a war against decoys.
I understand how decoys are employed.
I understand how diversionary tactics take place.
And I understand how badly we suck at this.
Because I was there in the Gulf War hunting Iraqi scud missiles, and we didn't destroy a single one of them.
And I know how the Israelis have operated too.
The Iranians are smart.
They've been preparing for this conflict forever.
They're not stupid.
They're not going to sit there and play to the strength of the United States and Israel.
Iran has been monitoring how the United States and Israel carries out aerial interdiction now for over 20 years.
They know them better than they know themselves.
And they have adapted a plan accordingly.
And they're winning.
They're winning across the board.
The fact that they have opted not to erase Dubai off the map isn't a sign of weakness.
It's a sign of strength.
They've sent a signal to the Gulf Arab states, don't get involved.
Dragging the U.S. In00:15:43
You need to stop supporting this.
And again, you just got to be honest.
The Gulf Arab states have been supporting, been facilitating the Israeli American attack against Iran.
They are parties to the conflict.
They are not innocent.
And so they're given an opportunity now to back off, to send the right signal, to stop colluding.
If they choose to do that, then maybe they survive.
If they don't, they're very vulnerable.
I mean, Dubai could be terminated in a very short order, and there's nothing Dubai can do to save itself.
The same thing with Abu Dhabi.
The same thing with Kuwait City.
The same thing with Saudi Arabia.
Points of known points of vulnerability with no defense.
And Iran has the ability to take them out.
Iran hasn't delivered their Sunday punch yet.
They're getting ready to.
And when these missiles rain down, we can have another show and you can tell me I was right again.
See, just give you the numbers, Scott.
I'm sure you know them.
Day one was 400 to 500 missiles, even more.
Day 270 to 200.
Day 390, 142, 20 to 50, 20 to 40.
Yesterday was 10 to 30.
Today looks like 10 to 20, maybe even less.
It's ongoing so far.
And most of it now is being targeted on Israel.
The numbers have dropped by over 90%, 90 about 95%.
Mario, if your math was right, why would Israel be begging for an off-ramp?
Why would it be?
Because the global hell out of this is I don't know.
I don't know if that report is true that Israel wants an off-ramp.
I think Trump wants an off-ramp.
That's my thought.
Trump wants an off-ramp because the global economy is getting hit.
Politically, he's getting hit.
The munitions are low.
It just does not make sense to be bogged down in another forever war.
And he doesn't need a regime change as much as Israel.
My guess, and there's a lot of concern in the Gulf that this is the case.
I think Al-Habtur, the billionaire, said the same thing.
My guess is that it's Israel trying to drag the U.S. into this.
You know, it's a Jerusalem Post that put out a report yesterday that was false, claiming that the UAE struck, the UAE struck Iran.
The UAE said this is false.
It's not true.
At Jerusalem Post, and they made a correction.
Today, Lindsey Graham is saying Saudi should join or the Gulf should join.
Later, he put a tweet saying Saudi should join.
Otherwise, there's going to be consequences, which is fucking crazy for him to say that.
But here we are.
So I'd love to get your thoughts on this.
But could it be that Israel wants this war to continue?
least wants this war to continue with the U.S. involved and is trying to drag Trump into this for longer than he wants.
No.
Israel started this war to achieve regime change in Iran.
It is 100% known to everybody that there will be no regime change, that Iran is permanently entrenched.
Viliati Fiki will be here for the next 50 years.
You know, the supreme leader is a permanent part of the Islamic Republic.
You can kill a person, but you can't kill the institution.
And that the Iranian people, 90 million of them, have rallied around this government like nobody ever anticipated.
So there it is.
Israel lost the war.
This was a regime change war.
Israel made a condition to the United States beforehand, don't start this war unless we can guarantee the outcome, which is the end of the regime.
That outcome cannot be achieved right now.
So all that's going to happen is Israel is going to be destroyed.
That's all that's going to happen.
Iran is far bigger than Israel.
Iran can absorb far more damage than Israel can.
Israel is about to be turned upside down.
So now we go back to what does Israel want?
They want an off-ramp.
They wouldn't want an off-ramp if they thought they were winning.
They are not winning.
They know they're not winning.
They know they're not going to win.
The same thing with the United States.
Donald Trump, you know, I mean, again, for the Israelis, they have to also understand, but if this war kicks up a notch, what happens if the Iranians decide to blow up the pipeline going through during the Jahan pipeline?
Blow it up.
40% of Israel's oil comes from that.
What happens to Israel when they run out of oil?
It's a tiny little country with no strategic reserves.
So Israel's screwed.
They know it.
They lost their power in Tel Aviv last night because of those Iranian missiles that are diminishing and they have no capability.
They blew up the power station.
They're starting to hit critical infrastructure.
They've targeted the leadership of Israel.
Nothing can defend Israel right now.
Iran's about to turn up the heat.
And as they turn up the heat, more critical infrastructure will be destroyed.
And Israel's not big.
There's no strategic reserves.
There's no secondary plan, third plan.
When you lose your primary infrastructure, you're done as a nation state.
And Israel knows that.
What you're going to see in the coming weeks, if this war continues, is that Israel will cease to exist as a modern functioning state.
And then suddenly you're going to be millions of Israelis are going to wake up to the fact that there's no food, there's no water, there's no energy, there's no life.
And they will leave.
And that's the end of the Israeli state.
When the Israeli people lose faith in the Israeli state and start leaving the Israeli state in significant numbers, it's game set match.
And that's what the Iranians are trying to achieve here.
So now they're in a position to achieve it.
And you're going to say they're going to accept an off-ramp that keeps the Israeli menace alive, keeps the United States alive and breathes life into this ridiculous notion of the Gulf Arab states that whatever conflict resolution there is, Iran must give up its missiles.
Iran will never give up its missiles, never give up its missiles.
That's one, you know, one thing that is as certain as the fact that the regime is going to stay in power.
Iran's not going to give up its missiles because its missiles are what's enabled Iran to win this war.
They're not going to give that up.
I don't agree with that last statement.
I just don't see how Israel can continue this war without Trump.
And I don't see how Trump would continue this war.
Trump needs this to end for the economy to get back.
He was elected based on keeping energy prices down and keeping the U.S. outside wars and ending wars.
Yet energy prices are spiking and we are in a war.
So I see Trump having to end this war as soon as possible.
How do you end the war, though?
The other side doesn't want to end it.
But what could do, you mean Iran, if Trump stops bombing Iran, Iran will continue bombing U.S. infrastructure?
No, no.
First of all, they've destroyed U.S. infrastructure.
They'll blow up Israel.
They'll continue to hit Israel.
And then what's why?
Okay, so the Us?
You're saying the Us is forced to keep supporting Israel.
So as long as Iran attacks Israel?
Remember what happened with Ansrallah the Houdi?
Yeah, remember when they threatened the American carrier and had to make an invasive maneuver and we lost an F-18 off the side and suddenly the United States realized that our ships are at risk.
Um Trump withdrew the U.s NAVY.
He didn't make a precondition that Asrala stop striking Israel.
He just said we're done.
Israel was on its own.
So that very well could be the decision Donald Trump makes, that we're out of this Conflict.
The 12-day war, Israel was on its own back then.
So the conflict ended.
The conflict ended.
Ended, but I'm saying in those 12 days, the U.S. wasn't there except bombing at the end.
The same thing could happen to you.
It was supposed to be there.
The 12-day war is supposed to be a regime change where Israel was trying to decapitate, achieve the quick gain.
They didn't.
The U.S. came in at the end, Midnight Hammer, sort of a gamesmanship to bring a ceasefire about.
That won't happen again.
Iran will not.
The world needs to understand.
The U.S. and Israel murdered Ali Khamenei.
They murdered the supreme leader.
People need to stop pretending this wasn't an event.
This is an earth-shattering event.
The Iranian people are enraged.
They will not stop this war until they get their revenge.
And their revenge will be against the nation state, Israel, that perpetrated this and against the United States.
This doesn't end with the United States having a military footprint in the Middle East.
Iran will seek to eliminate that.
Now, if Donald Trump is willing to withdraw the totality of American forces from the Middle East, that could bring about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and peace and comfort with the Gulf Arab states.
But if Donald Trump wants to pretend that the United States has an inherent right to continue to have a military presence in the Middle East after they use that military presence to carry out a surprise attack against Iran, you're smoking dope.
And if you think Israel gets to continue to exist in a manner that threatens Iran, no, Israel murdered the supreme leader.
They now have the son of the supreme leader as the supreme leader.
You think he's going to sit there and say, it's all cool.
You murdered my dad.
You killed my daughter.
You guys tend to forget about that.
14-month-old granddaughter of Ali Khamenei, murdered by Israel.
Murdered.
And you want to pretend that they're going to sit there and say, it's all good.
170 schoolchildren murdered by the United States.
And you want to pretend that Iran's going to go, that's just good.
They blew up an oil facility.
It's raining, acid, rain, death, oil, death, fire in the streets in Tehran.
And you want the Iranians to go, that's cool.
What the hell?
Let bygones be bygones.
No, you entered.
Israel and the United States entered an existential war against Iran.
Existential means life terminating.
Iran has played that game.
They picked up the ball.
They said, let's play.
They're not going to quit until they get their results.
And their results are America out of the Middle East and Israel never again flexing the greater Israeli muscles.
Benjamin Nanyahu's dream of great Abraham's accords are done, finished.
That will never happen.
India is playing a stupid game of that somehow there's going to be an India, Middle East, European economic corridor.
They sold down an Iranian ship, a fellow BRICS member.
They allowed it to be sunk on their watch.
It's it for India.
That's it.
This is a bigger game.
Iran is not going to sit there and let the map be reset.
They have the advantage.
They're winning.
They're going to win.
They have a plan.
Their plan hasn't changed.
Pete Hagsmith has changed the American war plan five times in 10 days.
So, you know, again, tell me how America is winning this thing.
Tell me how Israel's winning this thing.
They're not.
First, I think I agree with you that Iran is winning strategically.
I think this is failing for the U.S.
This is a failed regime change operation.
We have reports that the Kurds are also out.
There's been talks about the Kurds being armed and being part of this.
And one of the Kurdish groups put out a statement, an open statement, saying we're going to remain outside this conflict.
But at the same time, if you told me a few months ago, Khamenei is going to be killed.
Iran's going to be bombed to oblivion by the U.S., by Israel, and Iran is going to drag the entire Gulf into the war.
And they warned in advance they're going to drag the Gulf into this.
I would be expecting a lot more damage in the Gulf.
I'd be expecting, I know Israel's hard to really get facts from the ground.
You know, they've got pretty heavy censorship there.
But I'd expect more damage on U.S. bases.
Again, it's hard to know.
There's an expensive radar, a few radars that were hit.
So they did sustain some damage.
It's hard to know exactly what type of damage.
But if you look at those Gulf countries, they haven't joined the war directly.
They haven't bombed Iran back.
They've been hit by Iran.
But at the same time, they've been able to intercept over 90% of the missiles.
So when you say Iran is going to turn Israel inside out, I'm just trying to understand.
I think Iran is capable, from what I'm seeing, is capable to sustain the closure of the Strait of Homuz long enough for Trump to no longer want this war.
And if Trump doesn't want this war, Israel cannot sustain it alone.
So that's where we agree.
But I just don't see anything more that Iran could do militarily.
And I also don't see what involvement China and Russia will have in this.
There's reports now also today that Russia and China, especially Russia, are watching to see how Iran sustains this war to see how much they're going to help.
Similar to Ukraine, NATO watched Ukraine, and when they saw Ukraine doing pretty well against Russia in the early days, they started flooding it with military equipment.
And now we're in a multi-year war.
So the same thing could happen in Iran.
This could become a prolonged conflict.
But what's the source of that?
What's the source of that, Mario?
I'm just curious because I have some very good sources in Russia, probably better than yours.
And there's nobody in Russia sitting there playing defense game.
Lavrov just lectured the living hell out of the Gulf Arab states, calling them out for their hypocrisy and their weakness.
Russia has a strategic security framework agreement with Iran that they are adhering to and complying by.
So the notion that Russia is suddenly going to get on the fence and sit there and start playing it safe.
No, Russia's all in, in accordance with the security framework agreement.
They're providing critical intelligence information that enables Iran to strike U.S. and Israeli targets real time.
All right.
And that's a game changer right there.
China is also in.
We don't know the nature of the security framework agreement with China, but we know that the Chinese are going to comply with it as well because it's part of the Russian-Chinese agreement on this.
They're not going to let Iran fall.
So any notion that Russia and China have suddenly gotten a little cold feet here and they're holding back to wait and see, no, they're all in.
No, no, so the report is not they have they have cold feet.
It's about so China is sending equipment or material, especially for drones into Iran.
Again, it's hard to confirm any of this through cargo ships at night.
So China and Russia are still supporting Iran.
Russia's sharing a lot of intelligence.
China has an intelligence ship in the Gulf right now, giving you all the data on where the U.S. is striking.
I'm sure you know that already.
So they're already involved.
But the report is that they could get further involved to continue dragging the U.S. into this war, supply it with more military equipment, more energy, more funds, so Iran could sustain this for longer.
Again, Ukraine 2.0, but this time flipping it against the U.S. again, I mean, the notion therefore is no, Ukraine is not something Russia wanted.
Okay, Ukraine was thrust upon Russia by the United States 2014, 2010, 2006, 2004, 1991, 1948, 1953.
We can go on and on and on about how the CIA had been planning to use Ukraine as a mailed fist against Russia.
So the idea that Russia, that Ukraine is some sort of game being played by Russia, Russia wants the Ukraine war over, terminated on terms favorable to they're not dragging this in to do anything to the United States.
That's just a straight-up bullshit.
That's the kind of stuff that neocons put out there to try and explain away what Russia is doing.
No, Russia's in to win.
And Russia now backs Iran.
Iran is in to win.
And Russia understands.
Remember, Russia is the one that told the United States and NATO that this conflict with Ukraine doesn't end until the root causes of the conflict are over.
Because Russia understands that if you have a ceasefire and you haven't addressed the root causes, this war just simply resets and it happens again.
Russia knows what it means to put all your resources in to gain the strategic advantage.
They have the strategic advantage in Ukraine and they're not going to concede it by giving a ceasefire.
They're winning.
And so Russia understands the mindset.
Now they're looking at Iran and Iran has seized the strategic advantage.
They're winning.
Why in God's name would Russia suddenly tell the Iranians to do something that Russia wouldn't do?
So, no, Russia knows that this war has to end.
You know, Russia is going to Russia doesn't want chaos and anarchy.
I mean, Russia is going to win big time on the energy equation here.
I mean, it's just crazy how stupid the United States is.
You know, basically, if you didn't want to fund Russia's war, you just funded the war for five years.
You know, and you just balanced the Russian budget and you took a lot of pressure off of Vladimir Putin because even though they're winning the war in Ukraine, they were starting to have some belt tightening at home.
And now, you know, if this goes on long, it takes a lot of pressure off of the Russians.
But the Russians, that's not how they operate.
You know, you met Sergei Lavrov.
Okay.
He believes in predictability.
He believes in stability.
He's not a man that goes around and creates chaos and anarchy where he's not Marco Rubio.
He's not Pete Hegsa.
He's Sergei Lavrov.
And he believes in stability.
So they know the sooner this war ends, the better.
Funding Russia's Budget00:06:44
But they can't have this war end with a reset that simply puts the United States and Israel in a position to repeat this conflict six months, one year, two years down the road.
Russia wants this war over, and it has to end on terms acceptable to Iran.
Why?
I know they want stability, but strategically, where I don't understand is that Russia would benefit so much from this war more than anyone.
And their main objective is Ukraine.
I just don't see any, even if you believe Russia wants stability, if instability benefits Russia, why not keep it unstable?
Instability never is sustainable.
Instability is instability.
That means it's unstable.
It means it's unpredictable.
You can't make a prediction.
Russia wants predictability.
I'm just telling you, I've spoken to too many Russian diplomats.
I know what their core value is.
Predictability.
The other thing is Russia plays in the long game.
They're looking at the north-south economic corridor, the connectivity between St. Petersburg and Chabahar.
That's the economic engine they're looking at.
They're not looking at short-term gains off of a volatile oil market because the oil market can always stabilize and then those gains are gone.
Now you're back to square one, but you destabilize the world.
Russia wants stability.
They want predictability.
They want Iran to be there as the anchor of North-South economic corridor.
Also, a connectivity to China through the new Silk World.
This is what they want.
In order to do that, this war has to end.
In order for this war to end, though, it has to end in a way that guarantees there won't be a future war.
Iran cannot live in a world where Israel and the United States are continuing to threaten regime change, threatening this.
And it also ends with the end of sanctions.
That's the other thing.
Donald Trump is going to have to put the totality of sanctions on the table.
It's got to be over.
If not, then it's just a war by other means.
So the United States made a gamble.
We took a gamble.
We lost.
And now Donald Trump's going to pay a horrific price.
I want to go back to probably the most important aspect of this war and why I think Trump wants an offline, but that's the Strait of Hormuz.
So Iran could keep disrupting this with their drones.
And from what I understand, they haven't struck any tankers in the strait yet.
It's the threats of striking the ships there that is causing the insurance costs to spike and the ships to avoid the strait.
Now, there's talks that the ships are turning off their transponders and going through, but a very limited number of them.
There's also talks that Trump wants to escort those ships through, having a minesweeper, if it ever gets to it, having two warships by each cargo ship side to kind of deal with the air defense side of it.
Could that work?
Because the Strait of Hormuz is also, so there's areas of it that are very shallow.
So like for Iran to be able to block it off, they just need to sink a few ships in that shallow area.
And it becomes pretty much impossible for other ships to go through.
So I just find it very difficult for the U.S. unless, because some experts are saying the U.S. has planned for this for years and they knew that Iran, for the U.S. to come into this war, they knew Iran will shut off the Strait of Hormuz.
So there must be a plan.
So if you put your military hat on, what could the U.S. consider?
And do you think there's a possibility they'll try to escort ships, even though they might become sitting ducks for Iran?
At the end of the day, you're not going to put Navy ships through the strait.
I mean, that's stupid.
The U.S. Navy's already said it.
There's no talk about escorting ships.
The U.S. Navy said no.
They told Trump, no, we're not doing that because we'll lose all our ships.
There's no way to force the strait with ships alone.
If you're going to force the straits, you got to put boots on the ground.
So you got to seize Fish Island.
You got to Carg Island.
I'm sorry.
You got to seize Kashim.
You've got to actually seize the coast.
You've got to project power in the coast, cleanse that.
You've got to create a safe buffer in order to then rapidly transit ships through.
So what you could do is if you put the power in, you seize these islands, you can create a situation where you push power ashore through raids, through air power, et cetera, to create a temporary window to run ships in a convoy through, but you can't sustain that.
Then you have to retract, let the Iranians respond, react, collect the intelligence, and then push again.
And if we did this like a bellows, we could keep the straits open, except that all the ships that are up there in the north waiting to go through are sitting ducks.
And we, you know, and they'll be sunk.
And then what happens when they mine the channel?
You know, the Iranians haven't done anything.
They've simply, simply said, you know, this could happen.
And Lloyds of London panicked and said, we're not insuring ships anymore.
And now the United States has come in with this fake insurance policy.
We'll see how many ships take it.
But nobody, you know, there's people training off transponders.
People are broadcasting their Chinese ships, you know, any number of things.
But the bottom line is strategically, the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
You get leakers, but the leakers don't change the strategic balance when it comes to energy security.
For the Strait of Hormuz to be open, the Strait of Moroz has to be open.
And right now, psychologically, at least, it's not open.
And there's nothing the United States can do right now because to seize Carg Island, you're going to need a Marine amphibious force that's going to be at least a brigade in size.
How's that going to get there?
How are we going to get a brigade of Marines in?
Instead of deploying off of ships, do we send the Marines to the United Arab Emirates and then launch a helliborn assault and then sustain that through helicopters?
I've planned operations like that.
I'm telling you, that's a non-starter.
It's like the Germans trying to resupply Stalingrad using the Luftwaffe.
No, ain't going to happen.
You need ships.
You need large throughput.
And that's not going to happen.
And then you'd have to come in with more troops.
You'd need 50 to 80,000 Marines to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
And the Marine Corps is not ready to put 50 to 80,000 Marines in the harbor way.
That would be catastrophic.
There's no scenario where this is a good idea having boots on the ground.
There's another thing I'd want to get your thoughts on, and that's a betting platform put out a question saying, what is the likelihood of a nuclear warhead or nuclear attack happening this year?
And I thought of people betting their money.
These people betting their money, when they say something, it's not like a Twitter poll saying, oh, it's going to happen.
It's not going to happen.
Just for the sake of it being keyboard warriors, just putting their money where their mouth is.
And I can't remember the number, but it was just under 30% that thought it would happen this year, about 28, 26%.
That was an astonishingly high number.
So I started looking at the state of things.
I just don't understand where there could be a risk of a nuclear warhead being used, a tactical nuke being used.
I just don't see a scenario at all making sense.
And this is kind of a taboo thing I don't even consider when I have discussions or I talk to different experts.
Threatening Nuclear Weapons00:08:28
It's just a question I don't ask.
But when I see people putting money believing that this could happen this year, And I start to think maybe I'm wrong and maybe it is a discussion worth having.
Where's the risk?
And is it related to the current Iran war?
And if so, who?
Why?
Well, actually, I would put the risk much higher than that.
Because, again, I come back to my equation, which is Iran's not going to stop.
There is no off-ramp until Iran achieves its strategic victory.
And the question now, is the United States or Israel going to permit Iran to achieve a strategic victory?
If they offer an off-ramp and Iran says no, the next thing is, for instance, Israel is not going to carry out a massive strike, a nuclear strike against Iran.
First of all, what would the targets be?
What are you going to hit that you haven't already hit?
Another thing is Iran has dispersed its command and control and its capabilities.
No, you would just be committing suicide.
And I'll get to that in a second.
But Israel has an agreement with the United States about the plausible deniability of its nuclear forces.
It dates back to Richard Nixon, Gold of Meyer.
And the Iranians, or the Israelis have agreed that they won't admit having this weapon, but it's there.
And if they ever want to use it, there are certain steps that have to take place.
There is a protocol that leads up.
Because once Israel declares that they have a nuclear weapon, the United States has a legal problem.
Because by law, then we have to sanction Israel.
We have to do it because they're not allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
That's why it's plausible deniability.
So Israel has certain steps that have to be taken.
In the Gulf War, they started those steps.
I was there when it happened.
I remember when Israel pulled their Jericho 3 launcher out and made a demonstration, firing the Jericho 3 missile nuclear capable into the Mediterranean Sea, the exact distance that it would take to hit Baghdad.
And it was a signal to not just Iraq, but the United States, that if Iraq uses chemical weapons against Israel, Israel will take Baghdad out using a nuclear weapon.
And the message was received.
I know I was in CENTCOM headquarters when that happened.
The message was received.
But that's part of the protocol.
That was one of those steps on the way to show capability.
There is a possibility that Israel would go to the demonstration stage.
The demonstration stages would be that they would use a nuclear weapon on Iranian soil as a demonstration.
But that's a massive escalation that would require the United States then to either forego any pretense in nuclear nonproliferation or join Israel in the nuclear demonstration.
And Donald Trump, I believe, is inclined to have a nuclear demonstration as well.
This is the kind of idiot that says we want to resume nuclear testing.
And I believe already Pete Hegseth is talking about a nuclear demonstration in the inner circles.
So they would basically pick an empty part of the Iranian desert and detonate nukes and tell the Iranians, make peace or else.
The problem is we killed the last guy that was between Iran and a nuclear bomb.
The only thing that stopped Iran from getting a nuclear bomb was Ali Khamenei and his fatwa.
Because of Israel's actions, because of the United States' action, because of their aggressiveness, after the 12-day war, there was tremendous pressure put on Ali Khamenei to lift the fatwa, and he didn't.
But in the meantime, the Iranians agreed that fatwas could be reversed because there was a lot of feeling that you can't reverse a fatwa.
And there now is a theological agreement in Iran that under certain conditions, the fatwa could be reversed.
And those conditions are, if nuclear armed states pose an existential threat to Iran, Iran has a right to acquire nuclear weapons in response.
So now we have Israel a nuclear armed state, United States a nuclear armed state, posing an existential threat to Iran, murdering the Ali Khamenei.
He's been replaced now with a very conservative son who lost his granddaughter, lost his father, lost his wife, lost everybody because of the perfidy of the United States and Israel.
And he's now surrounded by very radicalized, conservative Iranian Revolutionary Guard guys who say we need the nuclear bomb.
Iran put the United States on notice during the negotiations.
This is why we should never allow Witkoff and Jared Kushner to represent us because they're too stupid to understand what they were being told.
They were told we have 450 kilograms of 60% uranium hexafluoride.
That means that we can build 10 bombs.
Now, Kushner and Witkoff went, oh, they're threatening to build bombs.
No, you idiot.
Listen to what they're saying.
This is what we have.
Now we're going to negotiate with you to get rid of it.
We're putting it all on the table.
Irreversible dilution, U.S. inspectors on the ground, no sunset clauses, permanent reduction.
The end of this, the capability we have right now, we're going to give to you.
The other thing it told them is we haven't made the step towards weaponization.
Because if you're about to enter into a verifiable compliance verification inspection regime, inclusive of U.S. inspectors, about what happened to 450 kilograms, it has to be there.
And that means you couldn't have already started processing it and all that.
So at the time this war started, Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program.
That's 100% guaranteed.
Iran was willing to put it on the table to get rid of it.
Now, the question is, are there people there willing to continue Ali Khamenei's legacy, which is a good legacy?
I don't believe Iran should have a nuclear weapons program.
I believe their ballistic missiles give them all the deterrence capability they need, and that's been proven correct.
But there are some who say Iran must have a nuclear weapons capability.
So the question now is, when do they pull that trigger?
They just elected a new supreme leader.
I don't believe any decision was made until a supreme leader was in place.
It's a decision that can't be made without a supreme leader.
The three-person council couldn't make this decision.
Now he's there.
Does he continue his father's legacy or does he alter?
So there's going to be a debate inside Iran right now.
What we may see is that Iran further enriches the 60% enriched uranium, which could be happening as we speak, because I believe they also kept several centrifuges, 164 Cascade centrifuges, IR-8s, IR-9s, advanced.
I believe that they've split the 450 kilograms up into 60 kilogram chunks and that they have duplicated efforts throughout the country where they can enrich, convert to metal, and create the fissile core for warheads.
So even if we blow up one, they will have duplication.
I don't think they're going to go to making metal yet, but I do think that they will enrich to 90, 92, 94%.
And so they'll have the uranium hexafluoride already enriched, and now they have to make the step.
Do they want to go to the next step?
This is where the United States and Israel need to get played.
Because here's the thing.
If Israel uses a nuclear demonstration, that's the end of Israel.
Literally the physical end of Israel.
You will not destroy Iran.
Iran will build a nuclear weapon.
We know that they declared that they have everything but the fissile core last fall.
That means they have the warheads ready to be mounted on missiles.
All you have to do is insert the gun, the uranium gun, and boom, gone.
Three to five missiles against Israel, and Israel physically ceases to exist forever.
It's gone.
Goodbye.
This is why Israel can't be allowed to A, do a nuclear demonstration.
It's in the United States been fit to say no to that, veto it.
But now Israel has to get rid of its nuclear weapons.
I mean, Israel is a pariah state.
It's non-compliant.
These weapons will not secure it.
All the use of an Israeli nuclear weapon against Iran will do is guarantee Iran will use nuclear weapons against Israel.
Even if it's the last thing Iran does, Israel will cease to exist.
But the other thing is, the United States needs to be worried as well because Iran is not going to sit back and let the United States use a nuclear weapon against them.
They may not have a missile that can strike, but I can guarantee you they'll get a nuclear weapon into a cargo container on a ship that'll enter an American port and they'll take out a port city.
Welcome to the world.
You don't get to threaten people without consequence.
And we are in an existential level.
Again, remember, we started this, an existential war.
We were seeking regime change to topple not only a government, but a faith.
We attacked the faithful.
We attacked the Twelver faction of the Shia faith.
It's like going to war against Roman Catholicism.
You're just not going to win that war.
So I'm of the belief right now that we are actually, if I were going to put a number on it, we're well above 50% chance of nuclear weapons being used.
This is an extraordinarily dangerous situation.
It's not reflected by anybody who reflects on what we have done.
Attacking a Faith00:02:47
We entered a war of aggression, assassinating a supreme leader and telling an Islamic Republic we're going to collapse you.
And now we're going to threaten them with nuclear weapons.
This is just insanity.
So, yeah, I'm somebody who believes that the percentages are much higher than 30%.
Well, I hope you're wrong.
I think you're wrong.
I know.
I know.
I think we all hope you're wrong.
But I didn't know you're that concerned about it.
What if Trump goes ahead and does what he just said while you're speaking?
He put out a statement.
He said that about when he was asked about Mustaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, he said, they made a big mistake.
I don't know if he's going to last.
So what do you think happens if they kill him too?
Then they pick another supreme leader.
The viliate faki isn't about a personality.
It's a position of faith.
The assembly of experts, since they already the assembly of experts is required constitutionally, they picked the new supreme leader.
Constitutionally, they've already identified a panel of three people qualified to replace him.
Because when they did this debate, they put a number of names out there.
There were a number of, there was a discussion.
This was a debate.
It wasn't automatic.
They had to have vote after vote after vote.
So like the Pope in the conclave.
And they picked this guy, but they've set aside three.
So if you kill him, they put three up there.
They have a conclave.
They put another one.
It's an endless cycle.
The regime will survive.
The regime is a constitutional regime.
There is a system in place.
So Trump just doesn't know what he's talking about.
He thinks killing people solves this problem.
It doesn't.
What about what do you think is the possibility of having the factions within the IRGC or the Artesh, the Iranian military, having some commander or general from the military defect, take power, and become a Darcia Lodriguez for Iran?
Is that a possibility that could maybe work out for the U.S.?
There's always CIA people to fantasize about this thing.
Remember, Desert Fox wasn't just a 72-hour bombing campaign against strategic targets in around Baghdad.
It was a security suppression campaign against the Special Republican Guard so that the 12th Armored Division down in Kut could rise up because the CIA thought they had recruited the command staff and had the division ready to move on Baghdad.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi security service had penetrated the coup.
And as they started bombing, they just took the general and staff out, shot them, and did the thing.
There's no way in hell there's going to be a coup against this is just fantasy thinking.
Israel's Program on Table00:04:55
The nation has rallied around.
Anybody who deviates from this will be standing out like a sore thumb.
If they make a move, they'll die.
There's just zero chance in my mind that this is going to happen.
If it was going to happen, it would have happened early on.
The longer this goes on, the more solid this gets.
Remember, you're dealing with a nation that believes in martyrdom.
I mean, again, I guess the fact that people don't understand what 12 or Shia, you know, what they believe in, you know, Ali, Hassan, Hussein, Karbala.
You know, just say that four things over here.
Ali, Hassan, Hussein, Karbala.
Say it over and over again, and now you understand martyrdom is what they believe in.
You want to make them martyrs?
They're ready.
So, no, there's not going to be anything.
And you said Wall Street Journal just put out a report just now.
Trump to his aides, I will support the assassination of Mustaba Khamenei if he does not agree to give up the nuclear program.
Which is like, I just don't give much credence to this statement.
If it is about the nuclear program, which there is no way this is the reason this war started, if it is about the nuclear program, you don't take out Khamenei who had a fatwa against it.
And knowing that most likely Hassan will be taking power, who does not, who probably supports having a nuclear program, especially after his family got killed.
So I don't know what that statement means.
From what we know right now, Scott, as a last question, if I asked you to speculate where we will be three months from now, I would say the war would be over.
I'd say that the regime will still be in power.
I don't know what concessions there'll be from all sides, the U.S., Israel, Iran.
Iran would want concessions to ensure this doesn't happen again.
The U.S. and Israel want some sort of concession, Israel for their own security.
Ballistic missile program will probably not be touched.
Nuclear program will probably, I don't know what will happen after this war, but I think the nuclear program will be dismantled.
I think you'd disagree with me there.
And I think there may even be some sort of business deals between Iran and the U.S.
I know it sounds very, you know, wishful thinking after this war and the amount of suffering Iranis are going through and the regime has gone through and how upset they'll be.
But I also think all parties want the war to end, at least the U.S. and Iran want the war to end.
But if I asked you to speculate where you see things from now, three months from now, what would you say?
I'd say first we have to get through a month.
I need to know what happens in a month before I can speculate for three months.
Donald Trump is going to be placed under unprecedented political pressure because of the economic collapse that is coming.
So if you're saying three months out, that means that Donald Trump found a way to ride through this economic collapse.
I think the crisis point comes in a month.
I would say that Iran holds all the cards.
I do believe that their nuclear program, they could get to where they were when what they offered Witkoff and Kushner is part of a Russian-Chinese brokered peace deal, strategic framework peace deal.
Put that on the table because it can't always be a one-way street.
But I also believe that Israel's nuclear program will be on the table as well, that Israel will have to open itself up to international inspectors.
The day of the free ride is over.
That's one of the things Israel will have to do to be allowed to survive because Iran is going to turn Tel Aviv upside down.
And so Israel's program is at risk.
The Iranians aren't going to give up their program in a vacuum.
I think that in order for Donald Trump to prevent the economic collapse of the United States, he's going to have to also give up economic sanctions.
I also believe that the United States is going to have to have a deep hard look about what happened, how we got here.
I think Pete Hegseth's term as Secretary of War is going to be terminated rather soon.
I think he's a political liability to this president.
This war is a huge embarrassment to this president.
And I think Hegseth will be sacrificed.
There's somebody's head has to roll.
It will be Hegseth.
So in a month's time, I see the president starting to make a move to get an off-ramp that will be acceptable to Iran.
I also see the Russians and the Chinese, because remember, in a month's time, we're talking April.
There's a chance for Xi Jinping, when he meets with Trump, to broker this.
Zhejinping, remember, is the man who helped broker rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
They have experience in this.
And so you could see the Chinese getting involved as a broker for peace.
But the idea that Trump's going to walk out of this with this earth-shattering victory, no, the United States is going to have to pay a price.
I think Trump sacrifices Hegseth.
I think Trump exchanges the ending of the Hormuz blockade for lifting of sanctions.
And I think Iran puts its nuclear program on the table, but Israel has to put its program on the table.
And Iran walks away with its ballistic missile capabilities intact.