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Nov. 24, 2022 - Jim Fetzer
19:02
Excess deaths, lack of data - Dr. John Campbell
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Time Text
One welcome to today's talk, Tuesday the 22nd of November.
Working from temporary conditions today, but we'll do our best.
Now excess deaths continue to be very concerning.
We don't see the response in the press that we saw in the early stages of the pandemic.
We don't see the Prime Minister and the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer standing shoulder by shoulder telling us about it.
So that's why I want to do that now.
Now this is going to be a fairly data intense video.
So let's just dive straight into it because we don't want to be alarmist.
We simply want to give the Data.
Now this first data set here is from the Office for National Statistics, equivalent in Australia, Australia Bureau of Statistics.
So in 2022 there were 111,000 deaths that occurred by the 30th of July, registered by the 30th of September, but This is the key point, 16,375 above what we would expect, 17.3% higher than we would expect.
So we're seeing a great increase in excess deaths in Australia, as we are in other countries.
The Bureau doesn't particularly explain this, it just says they exist.
We might be looking at some explanations later, but we do need a free, full and open public debate on this.
What is going on with these excess deaths?
Back to Australia, in July there were 17,936 deaths.
Okay, people do die, we know this.
But that's 2,503, 16.2% above the historical average.
deaths okay people do die we know this but that's 2503 16.2 percent above the historical average these are significant increases above the historical average This is many more deaths than we would be expecting.
And it is a concern, and especially concerning is the official silence on this.
Why aren't people talking about this much more?
Why is it left to people like me on YouTube really to be the main people that are flagging this up?
Pretty disappointing, really.
Now, let's move on.
So this is the Australian data.
There were 322.5 fewer deaths due to COVID.
In other words, this is not attributable to COVID.
There's something else going on here that's not COVID related.
British Heart Foundation, we've looked at this before.
British Heart Foundation is saying Extreme heart care disruption linked to 30,000 deaths involving heart disease.
So pretty high numbers.
Now here, the British Heart Foundation is attributing this cause to delay in care and difficulty accessing care.
That's undoubtedly part of it.
But I think we do need to look for additional causes of increased heart disease as well as simply lack of access to services.
It is part of it for sure but are there other factors going on?
Should we just say it's all this and not be looking for other factors?
Well I feel we should be looking for other factors that are contributing towards this increase in excess deaths that we are seeing because it is very significant.
Anyway, there's the links there.
Since the pandemic began, over 30,000 excess deaths involving heart disease.
And increasing all the time, of course.
230 additional deaths a week average over the pandemic.
But it does seem to be increasing, as we'll be looking at in a minute.
Heart disease is amongst the most prominent diseases involved in the high number of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic, as we know.
And we have done specific videos on this in the past.
While COVID-19 was likely a significant factor, these are direct quotes from the British Heart Foundation, COVID infections are no longer a driving force.
In other words, they are clearly saying that this is not caused by COVID infection per se anymore.
They're attributing it mostly to difficulty in accessing services.
I'm just asking the question, is there additional causes as well as that?
Anecdotal evidence is increasing but we're not doing that on this channel, we're just looking at the firm data that we have.
Now National Cancer Institutes in the States, a bit disappointing really the data we're getting from this and increasing cancers.
I mean, they are saying this.
This was one of the lead authors of this report here.
Focusing on COVID-19 deaths alone without examining total excess deaths, that is, deaths due to non-COVID causes as well as to COVID-19, may underestimate the true impact of the pandemic.
I can't tick this at the moment because it's on a screen, but that will get a very big tick under normal circumstances.
They then go on to point out the disparities in death rate in the United States in different ethnicities and economic age groups, economic groupings, which of course is important.
But are they missing some underlying fundamental causes, would be the question that I'm asking.
We must always exhaust all possible causes.
Census for Disease Control, a bit disappointing as well.
Data very out of date.
I mean, there is some useful data here that I want to talk a little bit about cancer, just for background.
Census for Disease Control here.
These are the cancer frequencies, which cancers are most common.
So we see here that lung and bronchus is the most common, then colon and rectum, then pancreas.
Breast in females, prostate in men, liver and hepatic cancer in males and females, with the blue being female and the orange being male, of course.
Now, of course, women never get prostate cancer.
They haven't got one.
But men do occasionally get breast cancer.
So we shouldn't ignore the possibility of breast cancer in men, although, of course, it's far more common, far, far more common in women.
Moving back to the data from, this is CDC data.
Now, this is one of the ironies here, cancer deaths have dropped 27% from 2001 to 2020.
So, before the pandemic we were doing so well with cancer, I mean still more people dying than we would like, but it was coming down gradually, increased surveillance, screening.
Better forms of treatment, more cancer awareness, reduced amounts of smoking, some dietary change, although there's a long way to go in the United States on dietary change, as indeed there is in the UK.
So it was going well, and the annoying thing is we don't have the up-to-date data for the United States, unfortunately, on the increase in cancers.
In fact, we don't even know for sure there is.
The insurance data seems to be showing that, but that's a bit difficult to interpret.
So CDC not really saying there's an increase in cancer in the States, so hopefully there isn't, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't actually an increase in the States as we know there is in the UK.
So all cancers here, overall female, male, slightly more cancers occurring in men.
Lots of useful graphics here.
Now the older people are more likely to die from cancer than younger people.
Now thankfully we're seeing very few young people dying of cancer.
I mean there is a whole field of medicine of course called paediatric oncology that specializes in cancers in children.
It certainly happens but thankfully much more common.
Well it's not good for the old people but it's more likely to occur in Older people, as that graphic clearly shows.
But are we seeing changes in cancer rates in younger age groups in the States?
Well, the CDC is letting us down on that data, really.
We're not really getting that data, which is very disappointing.
Now, this is age adjusted death rates for all causes.
Of course, this has gone up.
Due to the pandemic, but it's not really showing as much increase from showing a slight increase in heart disease, but not really showing an increase in cancers.
Now, there is actually an important difference here is the increase in heart disease can show through very quickly because you can get changes that can cause heart attacks really quite quickly.
I mean, the arterial disease can take a long time to build up, but you can get fairly acute changes that cause heart disease.
Because there's many triggering factors to many different types of heart disease, of course.
Cancers tend to take longer.
So my big fear is we're going to see an increase in cancers over a period of some years.
That's my fear at the moment.
I hope it's not founded, but it's a slower burn effect.
We might be seeing more cancers for the next I don't want to put a number on it, but that's what I'm worried about, increasing cancers over a period of time.
Cancer Research Institute UK, slightly better.
Now in July 2022, sorry, July 2022, yeah.
Sorry, July 2022, yeah.
So they're estimating there that they don't really know, but during the course of the pandemic, 3,600 to 60,000 excess cancer deaths so far.
Now, that's a very vague figure, but basically I think we can say fairly definitely from this data that more people are dying of cancer in the UK than were before the pandemic.
It doesn't give the causes for this, of course, necessarily.
Delayed treatment, of course, is a factor.
Are there other factors we should be investigating?
We should be investigating all factors as far as I can see.
There should be open debate about this.
This should be really quite near the top of the news because people are dying at the moment.
More than we would expect.
So, more to come on that, I am afraid.
Now, this is early warning signs of cancer.
Now, I put this on here because I was going to go through it, but what I'm going to actually do is do this as a separate video because, do look it up for yourself, but there's actually quite a few early warning signs of cancer that I want to talk about specifically, but as I say, I'll do that on a separate video because I think it's quite important.
But if any of these signs do crop up, you have to see your doctor.
immediately or as immediately as you can in the current situation.
The health service at the moment that is can be a bit of a problem but we will look at that anyway we'll look at that in we'll look at that in more detail on a separate video because very important to spot cancer as early as possible of course.
Now excess mortality in England in English regions data up to the December 22 update now obviously the data is not there for 2022 yet but this is the latest we've got.
I don't know why they put that date on it because it's obviously only November but there you go.
Offers for health improvements and disparities now this is This is the best data available anywhere because it's broken down by age and we know there's increased excess deaths in all age groups.
It's broken down by conditions and we know there's quite a few conditions which are causing more people to die.
Let's just jump into some of the examples from this.
So, offers for health improvement and disparity.
So again, all official UK data.
Weekly registered deaths for all persons in England and Wales.
Now, as we know, I'm sure you've seen these before, the dotted line is the average.
The yellow is the COVID.
So, of course, more deaths from COVID as we would expect.
But we are seeing increases above the average for some time now.
More deaths than we would expect, unfortunately.
Moving on to people under the age of 24, 0-24, and again we are seeing increased deaths in younger people.
Now do note the scale here, we always have to note the scale.
The numbers are smaller, but we are seeing several deaths a week, and these bars are per week, in younger people 0-24 years of age.
And this needs to be explained.
Why is this happening?
Because it looks like there's some phenomena which is increasing deaths in all age groups.
This is across all age groups.
So what is going on here really needs to be debated openly, freely, and answers need to be given.
Now, there's not going to be one answer.
There's going to be quite a few answers.
There are going to be several answers, but every answer should be debated, considered.
And once we know what that factor is, we can do something about it.
We can take that factor away, or we can mitigate that factor.
But if we don't know, you get the message.
We need to know.
We need to know what's going on here.
So younger people increased death rates, 25 to 49s also increased death rates.
And notice the scale there is four times higher, that's 400 there.
So again, COVID deaths, obviously we had some in that age group during the pandemic, unfortunately.
But we are seeing increases above the five-year average.
Now this is ischemic heart disease.
Now the deaths here in darker where ischemic heart disease is mentioned on the death certificate.
But we are seeing an increase above.
The average as we the five-year average we would expect.
Now, of course, the reason this is in different colours is it's a bit difficult because the dark lines are where the causative factors mentioned on the death certificate.
The light grey is other possible factors.
But of course, there can be several factors involved.
In a death, so there can be ischemic heart disease, secondary to coronary arterial disease, secondary to diabetes, secondary to metabolic syndrome, you know, it can be sometimes difficult to identify the specific cause of death.
But what we can say clearly, what we can see plainly, is that deaths are above the five year average, quite notably so.
And if we actually look at that in blow up there, we see The deaths are above the five-year average and have been for some time.
More people are dying than we would expect.
That's July 2022.
Heart failure, again, we see that, and the numbers here are quite high, that's 1,000 there, that's 1,500.
So we see quite large numbers of people are dying of heart failure.
Now heart failure is basically failure of the myocardium to work as a functional pump.
Heart failure is when the heart can no longer generate enough adequate cardiac output to supply the oxygen and the nutrients that the body needs for its metabolic activity.
And that often results in a backlog of blood into the venous system that can cause swelling and sometimes fluid in the lungs.
So this is failure of the myocardium.
Now failure of the myocardium can be caused by a variety of factors.
It can be caused by ischemic heart disease.
But it can also be caused by direct insults such as alcohol, such as carbon monoxide, such as coxsackie or other viral infections.
And it can also be caused by various immunological autoimmune problems can also damage the myocardium.
So this data tells us that there's more damage to more myocardiums in the country, resulting in more deaths from heart failure.
But it's not breaking down the causes, and this is what we need the public debate on.
We need to know about this.
So that's heart failure.
And again, when we look at that in blow-up, well, it really is quite poignant how much space there is above the dotted line, which is the five-year average.
And the yellow bit is where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate.
It doesn't mean to say it was caused by COVID, it only means to say that COVID was one of the contributory factors to that particular death.
Now this is all based on 2015 to 2019 data which I particularly like because it's based on five years before the pandemic so it is giving us a really fair, I feel, a really fair adjudication of the data.
So that's what I wanted to say on this video.
We need an open public debate about what is going on here, where we can consider all possible factors, identify those factors, take them away and stop people dying.
It really isn't brain surgery or rocket science.
So that's all I wanted to say today.
The next bit's interesting though.
I've started doing some posters.
So these are available for free download.
Click on the link, download them free.
And we're going to... I've got quite a few more planned when Simon, my technician, gets around to making some more up for us.
I printed these out in poster format.
You can download them, print them out, put them on your wall.
Put them in front of your textbooks, chuck them out, do whatever you want with them.
I'll put them in the public domain.
So completely free to do what you would like to do with them.
So for example, you can download this one that says Turn Look.
Oh look, that sheep's turned round to look.
The rest are looking the other way.
And if you turn and you look, there's always a risk that you might see.
So download that one.
And then, of course, the classic ones, follow the evidence.
And that's actually a picture of Hadrian's Wall.
So the idea is that you follow the wall, follow the line of the wall.
And when you do that, you find out what's over the hill.
Now, where should we follow the evidence to?
Now, this is a quiz.
Where should we follow the evidence to?
I think you can answer that question, can't you?
Let's give the next picture.
give the next picture.
Follow the evidence wherever it takes you.
Wherever it leads, wherever it takes you on this picture.
So we follow the evidence.
Might the evidence take us somewhere we wouldn't like to be?
Yes, it may.
Might the evidence take us to some uncomfortable truths?
Yeah, it might do.
Might the evidence lead us on to question assumptions that we've accepted all our lives?
Might we have to change some of our fundamental beliefs Might we have to question some fundamental authorities that we believed we could rely on, that we believed had our best interest at heart?
Yeah, we might do.
We follow the evidence wherever it leads.
Because if we don't follow the evidence, we're not living in reality.
And we want to live in reality.
So download those posters, do what you like with them.
The more they're publicised, as far as I'm concerned, the better.
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