Glenn Beck and Carol Roth dissect Iran's rejection of Trump's peace plan, revealing counter-demands for Hormuz control that signal a fight over global leverage. They warn that "death by a thousand shrugs" and rhetoric framing citizens as "enemies within" mirror historical authoritarian shifts from France to Russia. Beck outlines twelve strategies to resist societal decay, urging listeners to anchor identity in principles rather than political tribes while Roth analyzes volatile gas prices caused by crude mismatches and uncertain recession risks amid high U.S. debt. Ultimately, the episode argues that courage requires daily defiance against dehumanization to preserve free society. [Automatically generated summary]
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The fusion of entertainment, enlightenment, and empowerment.
This is the Glenn Beck program.
Glenn Beck is on.
Hello, America.
Welcome to the Glenn Beck program.
Fusion of Entertainment and Enlightenment00:14:40
We've got a lot on our plate today.
I want to get right to the 15-point plan and then the insane plan that came from, I don't know, somebody.
Might be Mohammed, might be Habib.
We don't know who gave us their demands in Iran.
It's pretty amazing.
I'll tell you exactly what's going on and what you should worry about, not worry about on this particular topic.
There's so much to cover today.
We'll get right to it.
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Okay, so the price of oil has come way down.
Can you cut the music?
Thank you.
The price of oil has come down.
It was down almost $10 a barrel there for a while.
You know, it's bouncing around.
But what this says is the markets believe that we might be towards the end of something.
I don't know what to believe.
Okay.
I don't, I mean, usually the markets are not this optimistic.
So who knows what's actually going on?
But let me look at the deal on the table and tell you what Donald Trump is proposing.
The United States has put together a 15-point framework.
And if you strip it all down, basically, here's what it says.
Dismantle your nuclear program entirely.
Stop enriching uranium entirely.
It's over.
You're not going to have a ballistic missile development program.
It's over.
Cut off all of your proxy networks.
No more Hezbollah.
No more Hamas.
Step back from the regional destabilization that you do and open the Strait of Hormuz to the entire world.
That's what you have to do.
In exchange, we'll stop bombing the snot out of you.
We'll lift the sanctions.
We'll give you some economic relief.
We'll give you a path back into the global system.
And we'll even support a civilian nuclear energy program.
We might even send in our experts to help you.
That's the offer.
Okay.
No regime change, no occupation, just this.
You don't get to threaten the world, but you do get to survive.
Okay.
Sounds like a good deal.
I mean, if I were on the receiving end of that, maybe.
Maybe.
You know?
The response, just as clear.
Uh-uh.
They're saying, nope, sorry.
We get to keep our sovereignty, including our nuclear capability.
You remove all of your military presence from everywhere in the region.
You lift all sanctions.
You pay for the damage that you've just done to our country.
And you guarantee no future strikes ever.
And then the other part that, you know, if you thought that was bad, listen to this.
And also we have complete control of the strait of Hormuz, and we're going to control it, and we're going to tax people.
We're going to decide who passes, who doesn't.
And we're going to have a poll to be a toll booth there.
I mean, no.
No.
The rest of the region, no.
Everybody in the world is saying no.
So this isn't a disagreement over terms at this point.
It's a fight over who controls the pressure valve of the global economy.
And that is the Strait of Hormuz.
This is where Trump is trying to walk a line that no one has pulled off in modern history.
No one.
Listen to how complex this is and how hard this is.
He needs to apply enough pressure to force an actual deal, but not so much pressure that it ignites the entire region on fire.
He needs to end the war quickly, but not so quickly that nothing actually changes.
Oh, it's just that easy.
Here's the thing.
If you end this halfway, you don't get peace.
All you get is a countdown clock to the next war.
And that is why something exceptional and unbelievable is happening all across the Middle East.
Countries that have hated each other for generations, they're suddenly finding themselves in alignment with the United States on this.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, even elements inside of Egypt and Jordan.
Now, they're not waving flags for war, but they are telling the United States, don't stop.
Don't stop.
You can't stop.
You and Israel have to keep going.
Okay.
This is the same message that Israel is saying, because this isn't about the Jews or the Arabs.
This isn't about Jews controlling Jews.
My favorite argument was, see, the Jews are just trying to knock out all of their Arab neighbors.
No, they're not.
The Arab neighbors are saying the same thing the Jews are saying now.
Why?
Because this is about people who live in the neighborhood and they know how dangerous Iran is.
The one thing that we don't get because we're protected by giant oceans, okay?
What they're saying behind closed doors is this.
You're dealing with Iran now.
You have to finish the job.
You have to deal with it all the way.
And Trump is actually holding some of them back because they're now starting to talk about maybe the possibility of them joining.
Saudi Arabia is actually saying we might join.
That would have been unheard of two years ago, six months ago.
They're now saying we might get involved.
And Trump is like, wait, We've already got Israel involved and I'm trying to control them.
Please, let's not make this harder than it is because he's got to hold this whole thing together.
For 40 years, these countries have lived with a reality most Americans have still today not grasped how dangerous Iran really is.
The entire Middle East hates Iran because it funds militias across borders.
It funds proxy armies.
It threatens oil infrastructure all the time.
Remember, they're in line with the Houthis.
What are the Houthis always doing?
Who are the damn Houthis?
Why can we not take care of the Houthis?
I just don't understand it.
It's a stupid name.
It's a stupid name.
Stupid people don't know why.
I mean, it's the Houthis.
We can't get that one done.
Can we maybe say to Saudi Arabia, you guys do the Houthis?
Anyway, now Iran has been sitting on the edge of nuclear capability.
And anybody who says that wasn't happening, including me, I said I wasn't going to believe it until I saw the proof.
Well, I didn't see the proof yet of the enriched uranium, although I do believe that.
I was questioning the missiles.
Well, they just fired one 4,000 kilometers.
That's way beyond anything that anybody said they had.
And they just did it.
And the Middle East has seen this movie before, and they know how it ends if it's left unfinished.
So, you know, for anybody who's been saying Israel's controlling everything, ask yourself, why are the Arab states who have every reason to oppose Israel quietly aligned with the same exact outcome and quietly saying we might go in ourselves?
Because this isn't about Israel.
This is about Iran becoming the dominant power in the Middle East and controlling terror and also the most important energy choke point on earth.
The demands of Iran are insane, but they do want control.
Why?
Because they want a global caliphate, a Shia caliphate.
And by the way, all of the Sunni Arab countries, they don't want that because in the end, they want a Sunni caliphate.
So that's what we're proposing.
I have no idea.
How do you make that deal happen?
And that is what they are proposing.
And somehow or another, the markets, the stock exchange, the oil markets, they are all like, you know what?
I think we're going.
I think it's getting better.
I don't know how people are thinking that because I don't even know who we're negotiating with.
Do you?
Who are we actually negotiating with?
First, who's even in charge?
Okay.
On paper, the way Iran works is really, really clear.
You have the supreme leader.
He is the final authority on everything because it's a theocracy.
Military, nuclear, foreign policy, what they vote for, what the people vote for, who the people vote for, all of it goes through him.
Then under him, you have the Supreme National Security Council.
They set all of the strategy and stuff.
Then you have the president and foreign ministry and they execute, well, the people and diplomacy.
But none of that happens unless the supreme leader approves it.
Well, right now, nobody knows how they're operating.
Day one, we killed the previous supreme leader, okay?
And they rushed to replace him with his apparently gay son, who nobody's seen since he was struck.
I mean, I mean, maybe he's in hiding.
They say he may not even be fully in charge.
We don't know.
Reports on his health vary between he's got a boo-boo and a band-aid on his knee to he lost his legs and he might be in a coma.
So I don't know.
He may be in hiding to protect himself from bombs and so he doesn't want to give out any information.
Or he might be hiding in the same well as the 12th Imam, if you know what I mean.
The other guy in charge is a hardliner and the speaker, okay, hardline security chief, also just replaced at the IRGC.
Any of these guys might be in charge on paper, but not actually in charge.
So the most likely answer of who are we dealing with really should be, I don't know, could be.
Could be Mohammed Galbaff, Galabaf.
Is that how you say that, Jason?
Galabaf, the parliament speaker, IRGC commander.
Perfect pronunciation.
Bad guy.
Yeah.
Reportedly, he's the main channel to the U.S. that we're talking to right now.
We don't know if that's true.
He has influence.
He has military ties, but he's not the supreme leader.
The other guy is the foreign minister.
He's a traditional diplomat, previously involved in the nuclear talks, possibly signaling openness behind the scenes, but we don't know.
The diplomats, the politicians, the IRGC, again, they don't control the final decisions, okay?
It's got to be IRGC, Supreme National Security Council, and then the Supreme Leader.
And he might be soaking his sore knee in the water from the well.
Publicly, publicly, Iran is saying there are no negotiations.
The U.S. is negotiating against itself.
And at the same time, messages are being passed back and forth.
Intermediaries are involved.
Back channel contact appears to be real.
So there might be talks happening.
But again, Iran's own system is denying it.
And then they're sending out these crazy things on what they want.
So who are we talking to?
Are they in charge?
The answer to that one is probably not fully.
At best, they represent a faction of power, which leads us to the question of who's issuing the counterpoints because the counterpoints are nuts.
Who's doing that?
Someone in Iran is saying no peace unless we control everything and we have toll booths in the water and everything else.
These are likely coming from hardline factions and military voices.
And then also somebody's like, I read the art of the deal.
Let's be really, really tough at first and then walk it back.
So you might have one group talking quietly and another group making these crazy, you know, demands.
And then a third to group, a third group deciding, do either of those matter?
This has happened before, unfortunately, in 1979.
In 1979, the United States got into peace talks, if you will.
We were trying to get our hostages back from Iran.
And there were multiple factions.
There were the Marxists and then the revolutionaries and then the Islamist.
And nobody had clear negotiating authority, but we misread who actually had power and the whole thing fell apart.
But again, remember, even if we reach a deal with the top Iranian figure, that's no guarantee because he might crawl out of the well.
You know what I mean?
The supreme leader by like, my boo-boo's better.
Boy, that's holy water down in that well.
And you should have heard, I just had a chat with a Mahadi.
He's a great guy.
What a cut up.
Been there since 1,200.
We had a lot of laughs.
So that's what's actually happening in Iran.
So today, the stock market's not panicking.
Oil markets aren't panicking.
You shouldn't panic.
You know, stop borrowing trouble.
Stop borrowing trouble.
Stop worrying about tomorrow.
Let's just focus on what we can deal with today.
And right now, who knows?
Who knows?
Going to be interesting to see how this all works out.
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seconds stationary so you know while I'm here because I just said you know don't worry about There's so much to worry about.
And I've been making notes on things because I'm just, there's, I don't know.
Maybe it's just me, but I, you know, turned 62 and all of a sudden I'm like, gee, I might be running out of time.
You know, even if I leave, live to be 85, time is flying by so fast that I'm going to be 85 before I even know it.
And so I've been, you know, just kind of, I've been writing stuff down for my kids and things that I've learned for myself even.
And now that I get older, man, I see so many things clearly that people told me, but I never listened to when I was young.
I have spent a lifetime worrying about crap.
Just worry, worry, worry.
Worry about the future, worried about what people are thinking, worry about how are things going to work out.
Oh my gosh.
And at the time, it really felt like I was being responsible.
You know, it felt like this is, you know, this is, you know, this is what serious people, this is what serious people do when they want to handle life.
But when you look back, it's really obvious.
Most of the stuff I worried about never actually happened.
Never happened.
And then all the things that did happen were rarely the things I spent my time worrying about.
Life has a strange sense of humor that way, I've noticed.
Storms you prepare for never seem to arrive.
And then you're hit from the side and you're like, what the hell?
Why wasn't I thinking that?
Directions.
You never imagined things come up, which means, why worry?
You're wasting.
You're wasting.
It's kind of like, and I say this to anybody who thinks they're going to be a future alcoholic.
I don't recommend it.
It'll destroy your life.
But if you are somebody who's an aspiring alcoholic, don't waste your blackouts without kids.
Really, you're going to need them.
I used all my blackouts up before I even had children.
And I thought, you know, as you're raising teenagers, you're like, boy, I could use a blackout right now.
I'm just saying, don't waste all your worry.
Don't.
You know, older people used to say, don't worry so much.
And you're like, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Well, you're old.
You only have one thing to worry about.
Am I ready?
But now I get it.
Yesterday's gone.
Nothing I can do about it.
Today's here.
Why am I going to steal time from today worrying about something that may never happen?
Worry just steals today without protecting tomorrow.
And it convinces you that you're preparing for life when really, honestly, you're just missing it.
So I'll try to do my best to tell you what you should worry about, at least in the news.
Today, nothing you can do about it.
So don't worry about Iran.
Ricky?
I'm worried about the 82nd Airborne being deployed to the Middle East, but you're telling me I shouldn't worry about that?
Well, that's one of those things I choose not to deal with today.
Should we bring in Jason to tell us if that's Jason?
Jason.
Jason, that's not normal.
Jason, what's going on with the 82nd Airborne?
We should not worry about this?
Now, I think it's just options because we also have Marines showing up on Friday.
So I think that they're just giving you one thing this administration has been very good at is, you know, subterfuge and not being predictable with the military and using it as leverage.
So I'm not too worried about it, actually, right now.
See?
See?
So much better.
Worry about the 82nd Airborne when they're on the ground and Trump is like, I got to talk to you about the 82nd.
They're great.
They're great.
We're going to see him do some spectacular stuff.
Then start to worry about it.
Don't worry about it today.
All right.
More in just a second.
Six stories that kind of tell you everything you need to know about America.
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All right.
So I know I just said, don't worry.
Don't worry.
Now, I can kind of relate to how Donald Trump is trying to deal with the Middle East because he's got to go in and do it, he believes, but he doesn't want to blow the whole thing up.
And so I got to tell you to worry about some things, but I don't want you to worry about everything.
But this may blow, this may go as well as a Middle Eastern war.
Okay.
Worry Selectively in Transition00:13:41
The news cycle is constantly happening.
It's noise, noise, noise, noise, all the time.
My, I don't know, gift or curse maybe is I've always had this ability to step back and see things that are connected, even though they're not really connected and how they can connect.
So you can go, oh, I understand all of this now because it's telling me all these stories are telling me one thing.
This is one of those days.
So I want to just give you some of the stories that I'm going to give you six stories that are in our newsletter.
It comes out every morning.
It's absolutely free, Glennbeck.com.
You really want to understand the news, sign up for my free email newsletter.
You will be the most well-informed person you know.
I read all of these stories and so does my team every day.
We collect them over every 24 hours.
And then it's what I use to put the show together.
And there's sometimes as many as 90 stories.
It's a lot of news, but you won't need really anything else.
So let's look at six of these.
Okay.
Six stories at first glance.
They seem disconnected.
The airlines, courts, war, corruption, AI, elections.
They're not separate stories.
They aren't.
They're six pieces of the same machine.
And if you don't understand how they connect, I'm not sure how we understand what's actually happening in our country.
And this, some of these stories are going to be pushed into next hour and the rest of the show because there are deeper meaning behind them.
But let me just give you the surface understanding of them.
Story number one.
Power.
Quiet, invisible power.
Let me tell you about what Delta Airlines just did.
They just adjusted its VIP treatment for members of Congress.
Thank you.
Delta.
Thank you.
Again, did I say thank you, Delta?
Thank you.
So what does this mean?
Well, for years, our elected officials just glide past all of the things that you have to do at the airport.
They skip the line.
They avoid the friction.
They avoid you, you know, the little people, because they're special.
And now Delta, thank you, Delta, says, you know what?
We're pausing that.
We're not eliminating it.
We're not debating it.
We're just adjusting it for right now.
And they call it a perk.
Delta, I think you're using the wrong word.
It is a perk.
You look at it as a perk, but it's insulation.
Because the moment our leaders feel what you feel, where they stand, where you have to stand, their decisions change.
And history's really clear on this.
The ruling class always separates itself first, and then it forgets what it's like to be a normal person.
Rome did it.
Versailles did it.
Washington is doing it right now.
And when that separation grows, accountability dies.
There's story number one.
Story number two, the border and the meaning of a nation.
The Supreme Court, there's a story in the news today that appears the Supreme Court is ready to side with enforcement, allowing limits on asylum claims process from outside the U.S.
Okay, strip away all of the politics here.
This is the real question.
Does a nation have a right to define itself?
Of course it does, or it's not a nation.
How can you be a nation if the world gets to define you?
This is not a modern debate.
This isn't complex.
This is easy.
Every civilization that loses control of its borders loses control of its identity, not overnight, but inevitably, and it's over.
And here's why it matters today.
What you're seeing with the Supreme Court and warning, because this could change, we lose control of the House and the Senate.
You're going to lose the control of who's coming up because we got a lot of old conservatives.
But right now, you're seeing reality, no, the law catch up to reality.
They're not creating it.
They're catching up to reality.
Story number three, lawfare and the weaponization of justice.
There are a few stories out there now that are shocking and should be shocking and horrifying.
I'm going to get into this next hour.
Shocking and horrifying.
Should shake the country to its core.
New reports are out now show that efforts to obtain records tied to political figures were far more expansive than anybody admitted.
Okay.
Let me translate that into plain English.
After 9-11, we all were panicked and worried and freaking out.
We're like, God says patriot in the act.
It must be patriotic.
And so we passed a bunch of tools and a toolbox that we were told were designed to protect the public.
Okay.
Those tools are now aimed inward, not outward, inward.
And once that line is crossed, once law becomes a weapon, you don't have equal justice anymore.
You have leverage and a banana republic.
And history has a lot to tell you about that.
When governments begin investigating citizens differently based on political alignment, that does not stabilize a country.
It fractures it every single time.
Story number four, Iran and the illusion of control.
Just told you, we send a 15-point proposal to Iran.
Iran responds with demands that it's not negotiation.
It's more like victory terms.
Close all your bases, you know, pay reparations.
I mean, it sounded like I was on a college campus when I heard that one.
At the same time, inside Iran, the story that nobody's talking about, hundreds are being arrested for speech, for cyberspace activity.
Well, there's an old-timey word that only guys with big gray beards would use.
So I want you to understand the contradiction on this one.
Externally, they're negotiating.
Internally, there is no negotiation.
They are tightening control.
That is not a regime preparing for peace.
That is a regime managing instability.
And this is the part that I think most of us miss.
There are credible signals that Iran is weaker than it appears.
When you have an animal in a corner, they become more dangerous because they're cornered and they're cornered.
Again, weak regimes don't go quietly.
They either collapse or they lash out.
We'll see which one is going to happen.
Story number, they're lashing out internally.
Story number five, the economy and what I believe is a false calm.
Oil drop today.
Gold rises.
Markets breathe.
Based on what?
What?
People are saying it's stabilizing based on what?
This is the problem with our entire stock market.
It's not based on anything real anymore.
Okay.
Warnings of a recession tied directly to geopolitical shock.
Hey, we've seen this movie before.
We saw it in 1973 with the oil shock.
We saw it with a credit shock in 1974.
This is different.
This time it's different.
Yeah, is it?
Because the pattern is identical.
The global system stretched too thin, meets disruption, it can't absorb, and then things start to break.
And it doesn't break evenly.
It breaks where you live.
It doesn't break necessarily for those who get the VIP treatment at the airport.
It breaks on you, groceries and jobs and vacations you suddenly can't afford.
Which brings me to number six.
Story number six.
AI and the quiet revolution.
All of this stuff is happening.
And the labor department just launched AI training.
And when I read this story, I thought, oh, just what we need, the government trying to tell us how to use AI.
My gosh, I have briefed people in the government.
I have.
Okay, that's how bad things are.
I have briefed them on AI.
And they, I mean, it's like you're talking to a caveman.
They have absolutely no understanding.
Most of them, some do.
Most of them have no understanding.
I mean, they're still at the pager system.
So would I get this?
Can I get ChatGPT on my pager?
No.
Anyway, companies are openly saying massive job cuts are inevitable and they're coming.
And your home, your house is being integrated into the power grid to feed AI infrastructure.
This is really, really, really bad.
Let this sink in.
Your job is going to be replaced in the next few years.
Your energy is being repurposed.
And you're being offered, of course, to adapt.
It's not going to go over well.
These server farms cannot take a drop of energy, not one piece of energy that we are now producing for the public.
They must be forced to produce their own energy because they will end up sucking all of the energy and we'll be paying skyrocketing prices for energy.
This is the early stage of a complete economic rewiring that will happen if Donald Trump somehow or another is not allowed to finish the job on these on these AI server farms where he is saying, I'm giving you the green light.
You build your own power plant.
That has to be codified.
Okay, so step back.
Let's look at all six stories here.
What do they all have in common?
One, power is separating from people.
Borders are being redefined.
The same time justice is being questioned.
War is destabilizing and the economy is already fragile and technology is shaping everything underneath all of it.
This is not chaos.
I mean, some of it is war is chaos, but this is not chaos.
This is a world in transition.
There's a word for that, realignment.
Old, the old systems that don't work, new systems aren't fully built, and the people down at the bottom and the middle, they feel that first.
That's you.
So what actually matters to you today?
None of the politics, none of the outrage cycle.
The votes that are happening in Congress, they absolutely mean something, but listening to the pinheads argue back and forth, that is a waste of time.
Watch for these things.
Watch for the things when leaders stop or being forced to stop living in their palace and start living like citizens.
Did I mention Delta Airlines?
Thank you.
When laws are applied unevenly, big danger, we're going to get into that next.
When negotiations sound like ultimatums, when markets calm down too quickly for no apparent reason, and when technology moves faster than the culture can absorb.
Those are not headlines.
Those are all warning lights.
And one last thing.
There was a line buried in all of this.
In our newsletter today, there's a story about preparing the way, even if you're not perfect.
I think this is the most important story of the day, okay?
Because none of this is going to be fixed with perfect people.
History doesn't turn on perfect people.
It doesn't.
History turns on people who see clearly and act even though they're not perfect.
Not violently, not recklessly, but deliberately.
They see it.
They know what they're supposed to do.
And they act and they don't allow excuses to get in their way like, I don't have the power.
I don't really know this.
I'm not the one.
I'm not smart enough.
It won't really make it.
They just do what they're supposed to do and they're not perfect.
And most times that's just teach your children.
That's strengthen your community.
That's, and I'm saying this like a broken record to members of my family right now.
Get back to church.
Refusing to be manipulated by every headline.
Those things.
Collapse in a society doesn't begin with the loudest voices.
It begins with the quietest bystanders and is stopped the same way by people who decide they're not going to be a bystander anymore.
Protect Your Home Title Now00:06:46
Most of us think about protecting our home in very physical ways.
We lock the doors, we install the cameras, but there's another way that your home can be targeted and it doesn't involve anyone stepping foot in your property.
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All right, let me tell you about Life Lock.
How long do you think it'll take before somebody's using your identity?
If you had the right identity, had the right information, I mean, wouldn't I mean, it would be tempting, wouldn't it?
You could open accounts, make purchases, setting things in motion that you didn't even know, you know, would the people who you're you doing it wouldn't have any idea it was underway.
I mean, how tempting is that if you're a bad guy?
Okay.
You're not a bad guy, but there are lots of bad guys out there and even countries that are behind this, trying to collapse us, taking your wealth.
They're constantly monitoring at Life Lock for signs that your information is being used.
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And the sooner you know what is happening, the better your chances of stopping it before it gets out of hand.
And when it does, you need help.
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Once you recognize a psychiatric psychological operation, everything changes.
Stay informed, citizens.
BackglennBeck.com.
So last night I was looking into the scandal now
about how our government was just turned into a weapon of destruction on individual private citizens.
Kash Patel being one of them.
And how nobody seems to care about that.
Nobody seems to care.
The biggest heist in global history is happening now with our treasury throughout states.
Nobody seems to care about somebody being killed on the streets of Chicago by an illegal.
And in fact, they not just care, they'll defend the other side.
What does that mean?
And I found something I need to share with you next.
Here's something interesting to think about.
Your cell phone company probably knows a lot about you.
They know where you live, how much data you use, how long you've been a customer.
You know, they probably know where you travel to all the time.
But what is it that they believe?
What do you know about them?
In today's world, a lot of big companies we do business with are not just selling products anymore.
They're using their money and their customers' money to support political and cultural causes and many of these things you don't agree with.
It's a pretty big thing to be a part every month of something that you don't agree with.
And every time you pay your bill, you're part of it.
You're enabling it.
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This is the Glenn Beck program.
Glenn Beck is on.
There are three stories that I was digging into last night as I was preparing for today's show.
Civilizational Warning Lights Flash00:15:53
And I started doing some homework on, okay, this is a disturbing pattern on these three stories.
There's the one thing they all have in common, and they seem disconnected.
One, Joe Kent has come out and says he'll testify for the defense of the guy who shot Charlie Kirk because he says Israel.
And the FBI just shut down that investigation.
Yeah, it might have been for a reason.
There's another story, and this is one of many like this.
At-large, an Azerbaijani, a national who came here illegally, is now accused of a massive $90 million healthcare scam in California.
And that's happening everywhere.
Okay.
And there is one other story.
Oh, the wiretapping.
The wiretapping and the way Jack Smith has gone after Donald Trump and all of his allies when he was out of office.
Wait, this is much, much bigger than Watergate ever dreamt.
It makes it look like tinker toys.
All three of these have one thing in common.
People are either defending those things on one side or they're shrugging, going, eh.
So I started looking up where in a life cycle of a republic does shrugging come in.
And I found some disturbing things, and I want to share them with you.
So let me take one minute and tell you about Mercury One, and then I'll get into this.
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It's in the same situation almost every time.
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We go into a situation, who is doing the most amount of help?
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Okay, so I want to talk to you about, you know, you've heard the phrase death by a thousand paper cuts.
This is death by a thousand shrugs.
We are entering what I believe is either the end phase or the beginning phase of a story.
Okay.
Might be the last phase of a republic.
And if it is, it's the most dangerous yet.
But looking back into history to see if it's the last step of an empire or a republic or the first step into real darkness, I don't know.
But it's what I would like to call moral shrugging.
And with that comes stacked justifications.
I don't know if I'll get to that one here, but let me start with moral shrugging.
All of our problems, all of them, can be turned around pretty easily if we choose.
If we all would go, that one matters.
I see that aligns with principles.
That one really matters.
Outrage can be corrected.
Debate can be had.
Lines can be drawn.
But what's killing us right now is indifference.
Indifference is anesthesia that allows a free society to be operated on without ever waking up.
What we're seeing, what we're sensing right now is really critical.
Citizens are being murdered and raped in our own streets.
Let me just give you the reaction.
What was it?
Play the cut that I just heard.
I think it was cut nine.
This is a Chicago alder woman who's blaming who's blaming Sheridan, Sheridan Gorman, for her own death at the hands of an illegal.
Listen to what this alder woman says.
From what I've been told so far, right, from what police know, from speaking to the students who were with her, it seems she might have, as they were just out, you know, people go out to the beach all the time, right?
And they go out on the pier, they walk around.
So the kids were out doing normal, normal things people do in the neighborhood.
And it sounds like this might have been a wrong place, wrong time.
Running into a person who had a gun.
They might have startled this person at the end of the pier unintentionally.
Stop, So this is not indifference.
This is worse.
This is worse.
This is justification.
Listen what she's saying.
Here's a Chicago alder woman who's now just saying, might have startled somebody with a gun.
You're not supposed to have a gun in Chicago.
What do you mean, startled somebody with a gun?
When was the last time you heard anybody on the left just pass by someone with a gun and didn't blame it on the gun and the person with the gun?
Well, here's one.
So clear justification of what happened.
Wrong place, wrong time.
You're blaming her for being at a place where she should be safe.
Wrong place, wrong time.
You know who was there in the wrong place at the wrong time?
The illegal.
Shouldn't have been there.
Should have been in a completely different country.
So we have this being said, and then all the people that agree with these things shrugging.
And quite honestly, many on our side, because we're so damn tired of it, we shrug too.
None of that's going to happen anyway.
That's extraordinarily dangerous.
We have corruption deep beyond this, deep beyond Watergate, theft from the taxpayer that is bigger than all Bernie Madoff scandals ever done combined.
It's been exposed.
Hmm.
What is happening?
What is happening?
That was my question last night.
And worse yet, why are leaders justifying it?
This is not just a political problem.
This is a civilizational warning light.
So last night, I'm like, okay, so let me go back in history and see if what happens when the average Joe begins to shrug off massive corruption and the government doing things it's not supposed to do and people just like whatever well, you find it.
When regimes of any ideology begin to believe they are in a final struggle, something shifts.
The rules change, the change the, the restraints come off, the norms, the quiet agreements that hold societies together.
They're no longer seen as virtues, they're seen as obstacles.
Let me take you to the late stages of revolutionary movements.
In France okay, French Revolution.
Suspicion alone became grounds for imprisonment, suspicion alone.
And all of the language was moral, justification was survival.
The result was what we call the reign of terror.
And it went on and on and on at the gallows i'm sorry, not the gallows, the guillotines.
Russia, 1917.
Bolsheviks move quickly from political opposition to political elimination, no debate, liquidation within a very short period of time.
Newspapers were shut down, dissent was criminalized, entire categories of people laid enemy labels, enemies of the state, and killed.
Happened in Germany.
Same way in Iran 1979.
By the way, notice all of these have a collective and or Marxist element to all of these revolutions.
197 1979, the revolution was sold broadly.
Different factions, okay.
Different hopes.
You had the students marxists, and then you had the clerical hardliners.
You had all of the people in the mosques.
They all got together.
Then the allies became traitors and courts became instruments and the revolution devoured all of the marxists.
Different ideology, different languages, same pattern.
When a movement believes this listen, the stakes are existential.
The opposition is not just wrong but illegitimate and dangerous, and this might be the last chance to get it right.
Then restraint is no longer rewarded, acceleration is now.
Both sides are in that situation, both sides.
We both think if the other side gets into power, we're doomed right.
We both think that this is where.
It's not where we are yet.
It's where we could easily be in the next two election cycles just based on what I'm seeing.
Okay.
What are the Democrat powers saying right now?
That when they get in, there will be trials, arrests, and we have to stop these people from ever gaining power again.
We have to teach them a lesson.
This dehumanizing authoritarian language really began hardcore with teeth in the COVID era when doctors and nurses both said, you know, we should let these people die.
We shouldn't treat these people because they won't go along with the political mandates.
And it has gotten much worse and nobody paid for that because with COVID, we cried out, but collectively the whole world went, whatever.
When you're hearing language that reframes fellow citizens as threats to democracy, enemies from within, and people who must be dealt with, that's not normal political rhetoric.
That's preparatory language.
It softens the ground.
And let me take one of those.
The enemies are within.
I use that language when I tell you the Islamists are here.
When I say the Islamists are here, the enemy is already here.
It's already within our gates.
What does that imply?
What am I saying with that?
We're dead.
If we don't pay attention to this and get this ideology out, we're dead.
What else does that imply?
That if we don't act reasonably now, we are going to have, I've said it even, we will be at war with Islamists.
We will, in our own country.
So when you hear a politician or anybody on the left talk about somebody on the right or the right talk about somebody on the left and they say they're the enemy, they're the enemy within.
You should understand that automatically to people puts you in the state of understanding that this is life or death.
This is a final battle.
I hope to deal with it one way, but if we have to, we'll deal with it another.
Then when legal systems begin to be discussed as tools to correct political outcomes, that's a whole nother shift.
When speech becomes something to regulate, not because it's false, but because it's dangerous to the preferred outcome, you no longer have a debate over ideas.
You are in a debate over permission.
And that is no longer a free country.
It is so outrageous.
As I was reading the history and I saw what is coming our way, it was so outrageous to me that it's hard to believe it could even happen here.
But that's why it has such a good chance of happening here because people will not see or pay attention to the warning signs.
You know, over 10 years ago, maybe 15 years ago, I clearly stated over and over again, we will see the hatreds of the 1930s Germany on our own streets and synagogues here in the United States, and it will happen faster than people will believe.
And I was called all kinds of names.
You're a kook.
That's crazy.
It's never going to happen.
Well, it's here.
And it doesn't happen all of a sudden.
Not a sudden coup.
It's much more insidious.
And I'm just beginning to understand what I'm calling stacked justifications.
Let me take a pause and I want to talk to you about stack justifications here because I think you will understand how easy you'll understand how your friends have suddenly started to think crazy ass things and you're like, how did they get there?
It's not hard.
I don't even know if this is, this might be something I'm making up, but stack justifications.
Let me explain that in 60 seconds.
First, let me tell you about the Berna launcher.
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10 seconds station id so let me show you how stack justification works Let's just say on the illegals.
Stacked Justifications and Guilt00:03:47
Most people, you know, they first started with, you know, this is families and children in a nation.
We're a nation of immigrants and we're, we love immigrants and we want to take care of people and it's it's fair to give people the chance that you had and your family had.
Okay.
That's all reasonable stuff, right?
But that was combined with another stack that starts with guilt.
You have all this stuff and they don't.
Starts with white guilt.
You're colonialist, which connects to the anti, you know, capitalist and the Marxist and the overthrow of the government.
And that connects to the racist.
You're a colonialist.
You're a racist.
You know, and that leads to you're a racist and you're oppressing these people.
You're the oppressor and they're the oppressed.
And that leads to the oppressor is always right, even though even though somebody can be on drugs committing a crime, yet they're the oppressed.
You can say he was just on a pier with a gun and maybe she shocked him and so he had to kill her.
Wait, he's a criminal.
He's been arrested before.
He shouldn't have been here in the first place.
And he just killed a woman with a gun in Chicago and you don't care?
No, oppressor versus the oppressed.
Okay.
Which the oppressor is always the U.S. government, is always the colonialist system.
It's capitalism, no border.
It goes back all the way to the Marxist stuff again.
And if you're the government, then that leads you to say ICE is bad.
Okay.
But you might not believe any of those other things, but you'll see one guy in ICE and he'll make a mistake.
And you'll start to say, well, that I saw that and that's really bad.
Some people can say that.
I have said that.
And I'm still not anti-ICE because I am not part of this zombie cult.
And it's hard for you to stay outside of that zombie cult if you're not paying attention.
So what happens is you say that and then you start being surrounded by those people and you get into arguments with other people about that and you start adopting everything that is stacked up underneath it.
And all of a sudden, you're part of the crowd that is anti-colonialist, Marxist.
You're just part of that crowd.
You're marching with, it's how you get people, LGBTQ, to march with Palestinians who would never allow their lifestyle in their state.
Never.
They'll kill you.
How do you do that?
You start small, stack, and you just stack it.
You know, you would not get involved with people who are like, you know, and the Jews, they drink the blood of Christians.
They're nothing but a death cult that controls the world and they control all the money.
Okay.
That's what people think of as anti-Semitism 15 years ago.
And it is.
But then it grows because then, well, they're warmongers.
They got us into this war.
They're responsible for the murder of Charlie Kirk.
And you might say, well, I think they did get us into this war.
Or crazy.
I think they did kill Charlie Kirk, whatever.
But once you get into that, you are now part of that whole stack.
And pretty soon you find yourself arguing that it's the Jews because they control everything.
That's that stacked justification.
This is, if you look at how people are using the same kind of thinking and language about Jews today, that it now feels justified to those people.
That's stacked justifications.
Don't Soften the Reality00:15:17
So what is coming?
Well, if we don't wake up and stop this, purges follow this.
That's why I say I don't know if this is the end of the republic, or last step on the end of the dying republic, or the first step into something that is monstrous.
Because if you look through history, the next step is temporary, necessary, targeted.
It's always framed that way.
Until the accumulation of all of this becomes irreversible.
So where does that lead us and how do we get out?
How do you spit yourself out of the system?
I'll share that next.
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You know, we always see things and we read history and we're like, how did these people miss this?
How did the people living at that time not see that what was coming their way?
Because people say the same thing every time.
It will never go that far.
Not this time.
It's different this time.
And it's usually not.
So let me tell you the things that you need to watch for.
And all these things are happening right now.
Let's start with cultural pressure to conform.
Is that happening?
Not legally, not legally, socially.
When silence becomes safer than speaking.
Okay.
Or the next step, language that removes legitimacy from any opposition.
They're not wrong, but they shouldn't be allowed.
Then the normalization of unequal justice.
Similar actions produce wildly different consequences depending on the political alignment.
You're seeing that in Chicago right now.
Guy with a gun kills a woman on a pier.
You know how that ends in Chicago.
Not this time because he's an illegal.
So now he's the hero.
Then the last one, indifference from the public.
This is the final stage before, I believe, acceleration.
So what do you do about it?
I don't know who I'm going to talk to in the audience here because not everybody will think this way.
Not everybody will understand it, but it's going to take enough of us.
There has to be enough of us that are willing to say, that is unthinkable but possible.
And I cannot be the quiet one in the crowd when the crowd starts crying for blood, left, right, indifferent.
It doesn't matter when the world truly goes insane and we have lost it because the crowd is indifferent.
How do you round up a bunch of people?
You lie to them and you convince other people that your lies are true and they shrug.
They don't show up for one reason or another.
They just don't show up.
And then the boots come marching in.
So how do you prepare?
Because you're not going to be the hero you want to be unless you are living it right now and doing everything you can to live this right now.
So let me give you, and I don't know if I can get to all 12, I'll post these, but let me give you a few that you can do right now.
Always tell the truth, even in all of the small things.
Not the grand, not the heroic truth, just the daily truth.
Always tell the truth.
Don't repeat something that you haven't verified.
Don't nod along in a group when you disagree.
Don't soften the reality to avoid discomfort.
Now, that doesn't mean you have to be picking fights with people, but you're in a group of people.
Just live not by lies.
You're in a group of people and they're starting to tell you how Charlie Kirk was murdered by, you know, I don't care, space aliens.
You don't have to say, you're stupid.
You just say, that's not true.
That's not true.
And here's why it's not true.
Or if you don't know that it, you don't, you can't, you haven't done your homework on it.
You can say, I highly suspect that is not true.
I would love to hear your reasoning behind that because I'm going to do my own homework on this, but I doubt that is true.
Okay.
You must be a road bump.
Okay.
Every time you bend the truth to make your life a little bit easier, you are rehearsing for surrender.
And every time you speak it calmly and clearly, you are rehearsing courage.
Next thing you have to do, build a tolerance for social friction.
Most people don't fear jail because they don't see themselves going to jail.
They fear being disliked.
Start there.
Say something mildly unpopular in a calm setting.
Not to cause trouble, just to rehearse.
Disagree without raising your voice.
Hold your ground without needing approval or to win.
Just, that's not true.
If you can't endure an awkward conversation, you will not be able to endure real pressure.
And this must be courage is a muscle.
You must practice these things, but you must do it in a peaceful way.
Next thing, separate your identity from your tribe.
The moment your beliefs are tied to your group's approval, you're owned.
You're dead.
That's stacked justification.
You may come in with one viewpoint that you think is reasonable, but this society now makes it so you must agree with all of it because you're a traitor if you don't.
And you will be forever afraid of being exposed, so you go along with it.
Separate yourself from your tribe.
Criticize your own side when they're wrong.
Defend fairness for people you disagree with.
Refuse to cheer for something just because it benefits your team.
This builds independence, and that's the core of moral stability.
You have to be independent.
You have to think for yourself and you have to have the courage to say it.
Number four, strengthen your understanding of first principles, not talking points, principles.
Know things deeply, like why free speech matters, especially for views you dislike.
You've probably said it a million times if you're my age.
I strongly disagree, but I'll defend with my life your right to say those things.
Why?
Why would you do that?
Why is free speech important?
Why is equal justice important even when it's really inconvenient?
Why does due process matter for everyone, including the guilty?
If you don't understand why something matters, you will trade it away when it's tested because you won't be able to defend it.
Next, limit your consumption of outrage.
This is something I am trying to limit my vomiting of outrage on you.
I am trying to give you perspective and things that you can actually use in your life because I do believe troubled times are coming.
Outrage feels like action, but it's not.
It exhausts you.
It distorts you.
It makes it feel like everything is urgent.
And yet, if everything is urgent, nothing really is urgent or important.
So set boundaries on news intake.
Seek primary sources over commentary.
I say that understanding that I'm a commentator.
You're much better off if you could find primary sources to get the news.
You should get the news from a primary source over me or anybody else.
But if you do listen to commentary, try to listen to the ones that are not pouring gasoline.
They're trying to be fair.
And know that you can't really trust them either because not everybody, everybody has their own thing.
Okay?
Ask, does this affect my actual behavior?
Clarity is strength.
Constant agitation is weakness.
Six, build real-world relationships.
Isolation is the breeding ground of fear.
You are far less likely to stand alone.
You are far more likely to stand with others that are around you that you trust.
So know your neighbors, have conversations outside of your echo chamber.
Build relationships built on shared values, not just shared opinions.
We are building a society on shared opinions.
That's death.
We have to be shared values and principles.
Freedom has always been defended in communities, not in comment sections.
Practice self-discipline in unrelated areas.
This seems totally disconnected, but the more I think about this one, the more I think it's true.
You have to keep your commitments because remember, courage is a muscle.
Everything is a muscle.
And if you don't exercise it when you're not needing it, it's not going to be there.
I can't go run a five-minute mile.
I can't go run a 25-minute mile.
Okay?
Because I'm not exercising.
I'm not in shape for it.
You got to wake up when you say you will.
Don't hit the snooze alarm.
I did this this morning.
I ate that.
Do difficult things that have no reward, no external reward.
Because discipline in small areas becomes the backbone in large ones.
If you can't control your habits, you will not be able to control your fear.
And fear is going to play a big role, I believe, in the future.
Look how it's already shaping the markets.
Nobody knows what's going to happen to the oil markets, and it's shaping the markets.
Get comfortable with risk incrementally.
Courage is not recklessness.
It's calibrated risk.
Start small.
Say what you believe when it costs you just a little bit.
Take a position without knowing the outcome.
Accept that not everybody in the room is not going to approve, but don't make enemies.
You have to train your nervous system to understand I can survive discomfort.
I'll be okay.
Nine, refuse dehumanization on all sides.
The fastest way a society loses its moral footing is when people become categories.
It's the Jews.
It's the Democrats.
It's the Trumpers.
Don't reduce people to labels.
Don't assume motives without some evidence.
Demand evidence.
When somebody says something outrageous, it could be true.
And if it's true, it's a huge news story.
But if it's not true, it's completely reckless and dangerous.
Demand evidence.
Don't celebrate punishment without due process, especially on your own side.
The moment you justify it for them, it will be used on you.
10.
Anchor yourself in something higher than politics.
If politics is your highest value, you're going to justify anything to win.
History is filled with people who did terrible things for the greater good.
Anchor deeper faith, moral philosophy, some code that doesn't change with elections.
That's what will keep you crossing lines that you cannot ever uncross.
11.
Study history, not the headlines.
Study history.
I have been trying to take all of the stories every day and I look at them before I come up.
I go and I search, is there anything parallel in history?
What does this story tell us if it happened historically before?
Because patterns repeat.
Details change, but patterns repeat.
Make it a habit to understand how societies lost their freedom, how ordinary people rationalized crazy things, how quickly it accelerated.
Not to become cynical, but to become aware so you don't fit in that pattern anymore.
Awareness shortens the distance between warning and action.
And 12, decide who you are right now.
Decide in advance what lines you will not cross.
This is probably the most important one.
Because in the moment, you're going to negotiate with yourself.
Wow, it's just this one time.
Well, it's not so bad.
So decide right now, what will you never, ever say?
What will you never, ever support?
What will you never, ever turn a blind eye to?
Pre-decision removes all hesitation.
And hesitation is where most people are lost.
Decide Who You Are Today00:04:50
It's that moment where you're like, ah, and somebody goes, come on.
Okay.
Don't hesitate.
In the end, it's not going to come down to one grand cinematic moment.
It's going to come down to thousands of quiet decisions made by people who no one ever expected to matter.
You can either be somebody who shrugs and goes, well, nothing I can do about it, so I'm not paying attention to it.
Ah, it doesn't matter.
Everybody's doing it.
Or people, one of the people who practiced when it was really easy so they could stand when it wasn't easy.
Because when that moment comes, you will not rise to the occasion.
You will only fall to the level of your preparation.
Back in a minute.
You know, some people are just good at what they do, you know, and they're good at what they do, not because they're guessing, but because they've seen it before.
They walk into a situation and without making a big show of it, they're already two steps ahead.
They know when to push.
They know when to wait.
They know when something feels off.
That's the kind of person that you want as an expert.
And whatever you're doing in your life, you want to be around them, especially in a real estate deal.
Because, you know, most of it might go right, but what happens in those big, obvious moments where it goes wrong, you know?
And in the small decisions where timing, the wording, the negotiation, how it's handled, you don't necessarily know and you're hesitating.
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We don't need to agree on everything.
Just enough to stand shoulder to shoulder.
Glenn Beck is back in a minute.
You know who one of the bravest people, I think, out there right now in politics is?
John Fetterman.
You want to say living courage every day, a little bit small, stupid ways every day doesn't make a difference.
Where do you think John Fetterman, this is just a theory here.
Where do you think John Fetterman gets his courage?
Has he rehearsed his courage?
May I just suggest, there's a possibility he has rehearsed his courage every single day that he puts on a sweatshirt and stupid pants and stupid shoes to go to work where everybody else is wearing a tie.
And I have criticized him for that.
You know, there are some things you need to conform to, but he never has and he doesn't care what anyone says.
So when he gets to a big thing, he's already lived that life.
I don't care what you say.
I don't care.
I don't care.
I don't care what the norms are.
I don't care what my party is doing.
I don't care.
I believe that this is me.
This is what I believe.
And I think that small step of him exercising that courage in that very small way is actually what built him into the man where he'll get up and defy his own party because this is taking tremendous courage.
He's like 71 points negative with his own party right now.
He doesn't seem to care.
And he'll go to work someplace else in the same clothes he's going to work in the Senate.
Imagine you've just gotten out of your car and you're walking up to your house late one night.
Maybe the garage door is open when you absolutely know you closed it earlier.
Maybe a light is on side that shouldn't be.
Maybe the front door isn't quite shut all the way.
In that moment, you realize something important.
You're about to walk into a situation you don't fully understand.
It's frightening when you don't know what's going on and you have a loaded weapon.
You've got to be very, very careful.
Trust Your Spider Senses00:15:12
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Glenn Beck is on.
Glenn Beck is on This is the Glenn Beck program.
Glenn Beck is on.
Hello, America.
So I started the program today.
If you missed any of it, it's been a really good program.
You should go back and listen to the whole podcast.
You can get it glennbeck.com slash torch, the whole thing, including the insider extra information.
But you can also get it wherever you get your podcast.
Listen to it in the long form today because there's a lot of really good information in it.
But I started with the 15 points that Donald Trump is trying to negotiate for and the response from Iran or what they're saying they're negotiating for, but we don't even know who we're negotiating with.
So the point of this is there's nothing that you can do about anything right now because we don't know the facts on who we're even negotiating with.
So I honestly don't understand why oil went down in price when he came out and said, I deliver the 15 points and blah, blah, blah.
It's kind of wishing and hoping.
I'm glad it did.
But there are some things about the price of oil and the price of gas that I don't really understand.
I think I do.
But I wanted to bring Carol Roth in.
She is our go-to on the economy.
We are energy independent, right?
We're oil independent.
We make enough oil.
We're shipping oil overseas.
Then why are we affected by gas prices?
Why when oil is going through the roof, why doesn't our price stay stable?
It's a good explanation.
I've asked Carol to explain this to us, and she'll do that here in 60 seconds.
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Carol Roth is with us.
She has her newsletter every day.
You want to understand the economy.
She speaks your language.
CarolRoth.com slash news.
Carol, there's several things I want to talk to you about.
The first one that I don't understand is why oil dropped so dramatically, why everything is as stable as it is when really we have no news.
We don't know who we're negotiating with.
Iran came out with horrible demands that seem insane.
We came out with our 15-point plan for peace.
But the world kind of went, okay, you know what?
This is good.
And the price of oil went down, which is great.
But what are they basing this on?
Well, first, Glenn, I'd just like everyone to know that in addition to a background in finance, business, and economics, I have seen both seasons of Landman.
So I feel like this is right at my sweet spot to be able to explain to everybody.
Right.
Oh, got it.
Good.
So the headline that is hitting the markets, and you have to remember that markets react to immediate news.
You know, they look out long-term, kind of, but they do tend to go kind of minute to minute, you know, when you're looking at it at any point in time.
So, the news that came out on the CNBC is that Iran signaled safe passage for, quote, non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
So, the market is interpreting that, whether it's true or not, but in this moment of time, that there is going to be more opening, and particularly for countries that it may be well aligned with, especially Asia, who is very much affected by the non-travel of ships through this critical junction.
There has been at least the interpretation of a signal that that is going to open up somewhat.
So, they're perceiving that as okay, things are moving in the right direction, that there may be more transportation going through, and that is what is feeding into prices across the markets today, starting with that drop in oil, whether it's true or not.
Okay, so here's where, you know, I said earlier today, look, there's nothing you can do because we don't know.
So, this is something be aware of, but just don't worry about it because you don't know if it's going to get really bad or it's going to get really good.
We have no idea.
Everybody is just speculating.
And so, when you look at the price of oil, I just don't want to be on this roller coaster every day going, oh, it's good, it's good, everything's getting better.
And then tomorrow it's, no, it's all going to fall apart.
It's going to be $250 a barrel because they don't know what they're talking about.
There is just speculation.
Is that accurate?
It is entirely speculation.
And you have all of these Wall Street houses that are coming out with their predictions, which are forming the consensus of what people are thinking on Wall Street.
And it's based on a guess, and that's going to move from moment to moment based on what happens.
And by the way, there are, you know, it's like a choose your own adventure book, but there's like 17 different paths to go down.
And depending on which path one person goes down, another 17 open up.
So we don't know.
There's a great clip that's going around social media this morning with people asking kids on spring break, you know, about what's going on in Iran.
They have absolutely no idea.
That's kind of everybody's best bet, at least for the short term, because it's going to drive you crazy otherwise.
Can I tell you, do you remember, you remember the Gulf War, the first Gulf War?
And I remember, what was his name?
Bernie, somebody on CNN, the anchor.
Bernie, he was, I think he was over in Kuwait when that started going, and they were showing the footage and the green missiles and the lights and everything else.
It was night vision.
And we were watching it on TV.
The difference between what we see on TV now and what we saw back then, we were actually getting news.
I don't think we're getting news.
We're just getting opinions all the time.
And opinions, I'm so sick of opinion.
I'm an opinion guy, Carol.
I am so sick of people like me who are just talking out there, but they have no idea.
They're guessing like everybody else.
But it's not fair for you to put yourself in the same category because you actually give caveats, use information, you educate yourself so they're at least informed opinions.
The difference that we have between back then, I think I was in high school back then, is that we didn't have social media.
So now everybody who was an expert on tariffs last week is now an expert on Iran and geopolitics this week.
Next week, they're going to be an expert on AI.
And you're just hearing all of the noise that everybody feels empowered to just put out into the universe.
You know, we used to have diaries, write down our thoughts.
Now we just say, hey, we want everybody to know everything we're thinking.
There is no off filter.
And it's overwhelming.
It really is.
Yeah.
It's really not helpful.
I mean, we do it to ourselves.
Not talking about, you know, regulating anybody or anything like that.
I'm just like, regulate yourself.
There's this, I just turn it off because it's like it's not useful.
It's just not useful.
I love that line, regulate yourself, right.
So the one question that I keep hearing from from insiders is, we are supposedly energy independent.
We supposedly drill, baby drill.
Why is this affecting us so much?
Why do we care about the oil that is coming through the strait?
We are supposedly independent.
Yeah, explain that.
There are two reasons for it, and I'm going to use an analogy to explain the first.
So basically, the headline is that we're oil independent on paper, but not in reality.
And the analogy I would use yeah, I'm going to use a we're going to be baking apple pies.
Do you like apple pie, Glenn?
I love apple pies.
Okay, so we're going to be baking a hundred apple pies for our business and it's going to require about eight medium-sized apples for each of our pies.
So we need 800 apples.
Okay, and we just took in a delivery of 800 apples.
So are we set to bake our pies?
Wait I, I was.
I'm sorry.
I literally was just thinking about pies.
I'm sorry, you caught me really.
Yeah, I started thinking about pies and how much I love pies.
So i'm sorry repeated what part we got our delivery.
We need, we need 800 apples.
We got a delivery of 800 apples.
Can we bake our 100 pies if, if they're the right apples and they're all good bing.
So that's it.
So we got a delivery and we got about, you know, 400 granny smith and honey crisp, which are great.
They're going to go in your pie is going to be delicious.
But for the other pies the other 400 we got red delicious and red delicious apples aren't really good for anything.
They're definitely not good for baking.
They get all mealy.
You wouldn't want to use them.
Nobody would ever buy our pies again.
So unfortunately, we have 800 apples but we can't use them all for the pies.
We have to use some of them for something else.
So it's the same thing with oil.
There are different grades and types of oil.
They have um, you know, different properties and the refineries in the U.s.
Are set up to handle efficiently only certain types of oil.
So we have a mismatch between what it is that we're producing and what the refiners can handle, which means that, even though on paper it looks like, if you look at the numbers, that we're energy independent, we are still producing heavily, we're exporting heavily and we are importing at the same time.
Okay so, so we make?
Are we mainly light, sweet crude?
So we are.
We heavily produce the light and sweet crude, but our refineries, the majority of those, are set up to most efficiently process the heavy and sour, the light versus the heavy.
Middle East yeah, that well, I think we get a lot of it from Canada, we get it from Venezuela, we get it from And we get it from different places.
But it's the density is the light versus the heavy and the sweet versus the sour is about how much sulfur is in it.
So the corrosiveness, the processing, and all of that.
So there's this mismatch, just like we had the mismatch for the apples in our pie.
Now, that's only one piece of it.
The other piece of it is that there is global market pricing.
So even though we have this, you know, theoretically proprietary oil supply, the pricing happens on a global basis.
And so somebody who's over, let's say, in Asia, if the oil in their region, let's say, is $30 higher than what it is here, and it costs them like $7 a barrel to transport it, they're still going to be better off.
There's a $23 difference between that $30 and the extra to transport it.
So that means they're going to bid up the lower prices and you're going to close the gap due to financial arbitrage.
So basically, if you think about it, the price is global.
The refinery needs are very specific.
And who loses on both sides of that?
The consumer.
Okay, so this would be, I mean, if you're a Marxist, this would be an argument you would make and say, well, that's why the refineries and the oil itself have to be owned by the United States because then it's not in that free market system and we can keep the oil of this is alive.
He'd still have the mismatch, so it still wouldn't work out anyway.
Right.
Okay.
All right.
Can I ask you, I read somewhere that Texas, the oil industry, I got this from Landman too.
I love that.
But Texas, it's not gearing up like it's a big, crazy, you know, run on oil, and we're about to see a big oil boom in Texas.
Is that true?
And if it is, why?
Yeah, so that's true today.
If you are a seasoned oil professional, just like a professional in any other industry, you're going to make your long-term investments based on long-term decisions, not based on a crisis situation.
Texas Oil Industry Shifts00:06:29
You want to look at the long-term trends.
And things have shifted a lot in the last 15 years in terms of capital discipline, the desire for cash returns, focuses on balance sheets.
So the reward comes from that discipline, not growth at any cost.
So before you may have seen kind of that wildcat mindset, like let's just go drill everywhere.
Right now, the powers that be the investors, the management, they're trying to drive their gains through efficiency and technology instead of just having a drilling frenzy.
So there has been this shift, and so they're going to take a long-term view on this.
Obviously, if this is something that, God forbid, you see a lot of oil infrastructure that's damaged around the world and things shift substantially over time, I think that that calculus will come into play.
But, you know, again, we've watched Landman, so it looks very easy there.
We're just going to go out and wildcat and get it done.
But in reality, they're really running the numbers, being disciplined, and focusing on cash, capital discipline, and balance sheet control.
It's funny because I got the exact opposite message from Landman.
I got that gas is so unbelievably cheap for what it takes to get that out of the ground, what these guys do.
One of my, you know, my nephew worked as one of the guys on the rigs.
And I'm like, I call him all the time, was it like this?
And he's like, oh, my gosh, every bit and more like that.
Wow.
Yeah.
So anyway, okay, Carol, hang on just a second.
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10 seconds station id so um neil ferguson i think is a pretty brilliant guy um historian also you know economics guy um And he has just said, brace yourself.
A recession is coming.
The war in Iran is choking global energy supply.
History shows shocks like this rarely end without a recession.
That'd be very, very bad for the Republicans in politics in America.
How do you see it, Carol?
Yes, it would be very bad for everyone.
And I read Neil Ferguson's piece as well.
And I thought that he made some very interesting points that are true.
And that increases the possibility of a recession, but doesn't necessarily make it probable.
So I think that he's right.
You know, energy shocks obviously matter.
They ripple through households.
They create issues with costs for food, industrial costs.
They influence how central banks react.
If you look back historically, as he points out, in many recessions, they have been an underpinning factor.
I think that the one area where I would take issue, and I would say, like you said, Niall Ferguson is brilliant.
He is a historian, but I don't think he is an economic historian.
And so he's got his toolkit that he's showing off.
But where he may not be as well versed is in what fiscally the U.S. looked like in the time periods he was looking at, like the 1970s versus today.
And the U.S. looks absolutely nothing today like it did back then, right?
In terms of the mix of goods and services in the economy, in terms of the overall national debt.
I mean, the national debt back then was like half a trillion dollars.
The debt to GDP was like 30% versus 120% today.
Deficits were, you know, like 1 to 2% of GDP versus 6% today.
And then one of the really big thing is that we were a net creditor to the world.
Now we're the biggest net debtor to the world.
So the entire fiscal underpinning is different, which means we have to kind of look at not only what happens to our economy, but the decisions that would be made by the administration, which were kind of tenuous anyway, could those get accelerated and what would that mean?
So I think in terms of his recession prediction, if you look at what many economists are thinking right now, this definitely increases the possibility.
I think that 25 to 30% is kind of where most folks are in terms of, which is obviously not the majority likelihood of what happens.
I think personally, and this may not be, oh, go ahead, stagflation.
We can come back to it if you want.
Okay.
Let me have you back, Carol.
We can talk about stagflation because I think that is a really important thing.
Maybe we can reschedule you tomorrow or Friday and have you on and talk about that.
Anchor Yourself in Principles00:02:58
Carol, thank you so much.
Appreciate it.
Thanks, Brad.
Carol Roth, make sure you go and get her newsletter, CarolRoth.com slash news.
You want to understand what's coming?
She'll tell you.
carolroff.com slash news i'm one of those people who tends to be an early adopter um You know, if there's new technology, a new idea, a new way of doing something, I'm usually the first one that wants to try it.
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Glenn exposed the jihad from within.
Get the explosive Torch special now on demand at glennbeck.com slash Torch.
Let me go to Christy, uh, She's on our VIP Torch Insider line.
Hello, Christy.
How can I help you?
Hi.
Hi, Glenn.
Thanks for taking my call.
I really appreciate it.
I was listening to you talk about identity, and it's really important that people anchor themselves in who they are by their principles.
So I'm really grateful that you brought that up because every label that's being projected, racist, Democrat, Republican, MAGA, liberal, whatever the label is, when we take it upon ourselves and actually make that our identity above our common humanity, that's when we're lost.
Yeah, I think Exactly right.
The Professional Cornhole Call00:05:38
Yeah.
Well, Christy, thank you for calling in.
I think you're exactly right.
I mean, the only label that, you know, that really matter, dad, parent, human, Christian, American, maybe.
But those are all rooted in principles or biology.
But all of them should be rooted in principles.
You know, when you go into party, my gosh, the parties have no principles.
The party's principle is win the next election.
That's their only principle.
And that's by design.
It's not a bad mouthing them.
It's just, that's the way it is.
And there's no principles in that one.
Thanks for your call.
There's a couple of stories that I, if I have time, I want to get to all three of them here.
But the first one, you know, do you ever read stories where you read them and it just you like have to put the phone down for a minute because you're like, okay, that one, I have so many questions about this one.
I don't even know where to begin.
There is a story that I read yesterday that I thought, am I the lazy one here?
And it revolves around a guy who is a professional cornhole player.
There's stop number one, but I'm going to move on.
A professional cornhole player who is also a quadruple amputee.
Okay, I tie those two together and I could be there for 20 minutes.
But let me add, he's been charged with murder.
Okay.
After allegedly shooting a man while driving.
I put the phone down and I'm like, I don't think I understand life anymore.
I don't, what?
Can we slow down here for a second?
I mean, not for dramatic effect, but I mean, my brain needs to catch up.
Those are things, many of those things should not physically be possible.
No arms, no legs, no hands, no fingers.
And yet he's a professional cornhole player who's in the car operating the vehicle, getting into an argument, producing a firearm, and then firing two shots.
I mean, at some point, the law of physics, you know, just, you know, they're not bending.
They've packed a bag and they've moved out.
I don't even understand.
He pulled a gun.
How did he pull a gun?
How did he pull a gun?
Where was the gun?
How did he pull it?
Was it a surprise?
Meanwhile, somewhere in America, there is a guy right now that's lying on a couch going, I'm so, I'm so oppressed.
I just don't think I could get out today.
I mean, I just don't.
You know what?
After reading that story, you don't have a right.
You really don't.
You don't even have the right to say, I'm too tired.
I'm overwhelmed, really.
Really, really?
I couldn't find my keys.
Really?
Because there's a guy who figured out how to drive and shoot without having anything typically associated with driving or shooting.
At this point, I mean, honestly, I feel he's a murderer, obviously.
But what else can he do?
I mean, can he assemble Ikea furniture?
Wouldn't that be great?
And how?
Is he beating you at pickleball?
I mean, this is the gold medalist of murderers.
And I think that is, I mean, I want to see it.
I want to see how all of this happen.
And on top of it, he's a professional cornhole player, which raises a whole set of new questions.
And frankly, I'm not prepared to ask today or maybe even in this lifetime.
So I'm going to move on from that.
But I really, you know how this happened?
He's in his car.
He's driving along.
He's got two friends in the back.
Another friend sitting in the seat next to him.
He's driving.
Remember, no legs, no arms.
And he's driving and he gets into an argument.
And then he reaches for and grabs, I don't know how, his gun.
He shoots the person in the other seat.
And then he pulls over.
And the people in the back are freaking out.
And they're like, dude, you just shot him.
And he's like, yeah, I know.
You got to help me get the body out of the car.
And they're like, no, we're not.
And they get out of the car.
He pulls out.
I mean, there's one thing I guess he couldn't do.
He can throw beanbags into holes, but he can't drag the body out.
He can shoot somebody while driving.
I mean, somewhere there's a little league coach that is screaming at a kid right now, going, use your arms.
And the kid is going, well, apparently that's, you know, that's optional.
Maybe I don't have to.
I mean, we really need to redefine the word and look at the word disabled.
You know, we might need a staff meeting on that one because if this guy can do all of this, you know, and commit the crime, I mean, what the hell are we doing with our lives?
We have people who can't answer emails, people who need three days to recover from a Zoom call.
People who say, I just, I just don't feel seen today.
Walt Disney's Oswald Rabbit Struggle00:03:57
Seen?
This guy's out there doing things that the human body's not even designed to do.
Again, none of this excuses anything.
Crime is crime.
It's serious.
It's tragic.
But I mean, if a guy with no arms and no legs can figure out how to drive a car, compete professionally and navigate the world at that level and then shoot somebody, I mean, what exactly is your excuse?
I promise you, tomorrow morning when your alarm goes off, you think about hitting snooze, don't do it.
Don't do it.
Somewhere in the back of your mind, a little voice is going to whisper, really?
You've got all your limbs and this is where you draw the line?
Really?
This guy, he lost his legs, I guess, when he was 10 months old, some sort of an infection or something, lost his legs and his arms at 10 years old.
And he was determined, nothing's going to stop me.
The law should have been maybe something that stopped him, you know, but I'm fascinated by this guy.
Absolutely fascinated by him.
How'd that happen?
Another story.
Open AI has ended their Disney partnership as it is closing Sora, the video making app.
Now, Disney is the most litigious company on planet Earth.
And for a reason, Universal, back in the 1920s, Walt Disney had Oswald the Rabbit, and it became a big deal.
Not the size of Mickey Mouse, but close.
Oswald the Rabbit.
And he was making it for Universal.
He was young.
And Universal and everybody else is screwing him.
And so he realizes, you know, I got to get out.
They're screwing me.
I got to do, I got to do this on my own.
And so he leaves.
And as he quits, and they're like, what are you going to do, Walt?
And he's like, I'm taking Oswald and I'm going elsewhere.
He's already quit.
And they're like, huh, that's interesting because you don't own the rights to Oswald the Rabbit.
He's like, but it's mine.
They're like, no, you were working for us when you did that.
So it's ours.
So he decided then and there, I've got a lawyer up on everything.
Nobody's ever going to own anything.
And by the way, he got the, well, he didn't.
Do you know they got the rights back to Oswald the Rabbit?
15 or 20 years ago, they wanted Al Michaels to move over to ABC.
No, NBC wanted Al Michaels to move from ABC and do sports for NBC.
And he was an ABC guy.
And so Universal, NBC, calls up ABC Disney and says, we want Al Michaels.
And they said over our dead body, he's under a big contract.
And they said, we'll pay anything.
Anything?
They charged an arm and a leg.
No offense to our cornhole player, but charged an arm and a leg and said, and we want the rights to Oswald the Rabbit back.
And they actually transferred the rights so Al Michaels could go to NBC.
But anyway, so they're very litigious and have been forever.
When they partnered with Sora, I thought it was really interesting because they had made a deal with Sora.
It's this video generator, this AI video generation app where you could take, you know, Ironman or Mickey Mouse and you could get the rights to make a short film using those images completely anti-Disney.
And I thought, my gosh, what has happened?
Everybody's freaking out in Hollywood about that's going to, you know, get rid of all of our jobs.
Prepare With Glenn for Attacks00:06:43
Yeah, yeah, it is.
Oh, you care now, huh?
But they're all freaking out.
I don't know why OpenAI, I mean, it was two years ago that they made this deal and it was a big deal.
And everybody was very clear.
You're going to be able to make movies and everything else.
And now suddenly ChatGPT just cancels this and says no more.
And Disney says, nope, no more of that.
Don't know why.
They didn't say why.
But is it, I mean, was Hollywood just freaking out too much?
Did Disney cross the line?
Were they hurting their friends in Hollywood?
Those bastards, I hate them for that.
I wonder if they could play Cornhole with no arms or length.
Probably not.
More in just a second.
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Then you notice it, you don't have as much food as you thought you did.
And, you know, not the we're in trouble level.
We're just going to be drinking pickle juice, but a few meals, maybe enough to get by as long as everything continues to work the way it always does.
And that's the assumption.
Tomorrow stores are going to be open.
You know, next week, everything's going to be stock still and, you know, you need something.
You can go get it.
But what if that's wrong?
What if something tomorrow happens and you've got pickle juice and not really very much else and the stores are being just emptied?
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Glenn Beck.
Hey, Jason, I just heard you talking to the Insiders.
Can you give us that breaking news on Iran?
They apparently have responded.
They responded.
They rejected the U.S. peace proposal, and they came back with five counterproposals.
Do you want to hear those?
Oh, yeah, I do.
By the way, I don't know who's actually responding to this because they're on their D team right now.
And most of them are denying talking.
So I don't even know who this is.
Their conditions include, number one, immediate end to attacks and assassinations inside the country.
That's not going to happen.
Number two, establishment of concrete guarantees against future U.S. attacks.
Hang on just a second.
I can't stop but thinking, Sarah, what was that guy's name?
You know, Gregon the barbarian or whatever.
Get your troops out from Zanzibar.
What was that guy's name for all this time?
Gadon the American.
Gadon the American.
Do we still have Gadon the American?
See if you can find that.
Let me tell you, Barack.
Anyway.
Yeah, let me tell you something here.
All right.
Anyway, go ahead.
So immediate attacks, guarantees against future attacks.
Number three, clear determination and guaranteed payment for war damage.
No.
That's not going to happen.
No, that's not going to happen.
Number four.
This is pretty much what they said, you know, earlier.
But we don't know who this person is.
We have no idea.
We have no idea.
All right.
Let me ask you something else.
I want to tell you, I was driving in today, and I don't know who the clown is on CNBC, but I've been saying, you know, this week, look, you want to understand the war.
Stop listening to the knuckleheads who are just talking politics.
Start follow the oil.
Follow the oil money because you will be able to understand a little bit more when you see what big money is doing in the long term, what they actually believe is going to happen.
Because there's no facts out there.
It's all just opinion and speculation.
So I'm listening to it.
I was driving in.
And the host says to the co-host, the female co-host, he says, you know, as I turn on the car, he says, you know, Donald Trump, I mean, he has such, he has no credibility with everybody.
I mean, everybody I'm talking to, everybody, we all believe Iran more than we believe Donald Trump.
I mean, what does that say?
You know, and she's like, I don't think that's true.
And he's like, oh, come on, you're hearing that.
I mean, in all of our circles, all we're hearing is, you know, that Iran has more credibility.
I mean, I believe Iran much more than I believe Donald Trump.
And she's like, but you're not taking their side.
And he just keeps digging.
And he's like, well, no, but I mean, I would defend them.
Well, I mean, I wouldn't defend them.
And he just got trapped in this hole.
And it was absolutely insane.
And then they did a guest and he comes back right after.
He's like, I'm only hearing this on, I mean, it's not my friend.
I'm only hearing this on Twitter.
And she's like, X.
And he's like, yeah, I'm completely unrelatable.
Yeah, I guess on X. I'm hearing that.
But it's everywhere on X.
It's everywhere on X.
Well, no, it's not everywhere on X.
It is on Russia today.
Have you seen what John Brennan did?
Do we have this audio?
Play this.
This is John Brennan, Mr. RussiaGate guy on MSNBC, and it's being retweeted by Russia today.
Listen.
They are an authoritarian regime who's known to lie.
But like, I'm confused.
What is going on?
Help me.
Calm me down.
Well, I tend to believe Iran more than I do.
That's crazy because he could not acknowledge the truth even when it is, he's slapped in the face with it repeatedly.
And it's clear that he is flailing right now.
He's trying to figure out how he's going to get out of this debacle that he has created.
And so he's going to make these claims about negotiations that the Iranians now are sending signals that they really want to make a deal and indicates that it's going to make it.
So that's who is this guy from CNBC has to be hanging out.
Is that Joy Reid or I don't know who that is?
And then Brennan, the guy who has absolutely no credibility.
And I think they're still planning on coming after.
There's breaking news today about how much trouble he's