Epoch Times - Gordon Chang: Here’s why Iran will be different from Afghanistan and Iraq

March 2, 2026 - Epoch Times

02:28

Gordon Chang: Here’s why Iran will be different from Afghanistan and Iraq

Gordon Chang argues Iran’s regime collapse will differ from Afghanistan and Iraq due to 80% Iranian opposition to the theocratic system, now entrenched for 47 years. Unlike Syria’s Bashar al-Assad—who favors a Japan/Germany-style U.S. business model—Iranians reject imposed rule, demanding self-driven change. Past failures in Iraq and Afghanistan stemmed from absent political will and investment stability, but Iran’s deep societal resentment may bypass U.S. intervention entirely. [Automatically generated summary]
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Time	Text
Regime Change Risks 00:02:07
	Jumping back to Iran for a moment here, you know, the concern, and I think this is a very legitimate concern, is that, you know, there's a kind of a power vacuum that gets filled by something worse.
	And, you know, we looked at some of our, you know, regime change operations of the past and quite a number of them didn't, the more recent ones especially didn't go very well, right?
	Didn't go very well at all.
	And so what makes Iran different somehow?
	I don't think we can get worse than what we've got right now.
	But we've had regime change operations like Germany and Japan.
	And that was because there was political will to make sure that those operations went well.
	And we had American business that was fully on board.
	I think the reason why Afghanistan and Iraq didn't go well is because you didn't have the secure environment in which business could come in and transform society.
	And this is the issue right now in Syria.
	You know, Syria's leader, a former al-Qaeda operative, said, look, and he said this to the United States.
	He said, I want to be Japan and Germany.
	I don't want to be Afghanistan or Iraq.
	I don't want U.S. aid.
	He said that.
	He said, I want U.S. business.
	And so we have to go back and understand what made Japan and Germany successful.
	And we can do it again if we have the political will, if we can create the peace and sustainability.
	And I'm sure that we can, because Iran is very different than Afghanistan or Iraq.
	Well, one thing that Iran really does have going for it is that, again, I think, as I said earlier, it's an 80-20 issue, 80%.
	I mean, this is, of course, a rough estimate gleaned through VPNs and so forth of sentiment, but really are against the regime and are looking to do something better.
	They feel it's something that was imposed on them.
	And, you know, of course, it's in an atrocious totalitarian system.
Iran vs. Iraq 00:00:20
	Iran is not Iraq, although they border each other.
	Iran has a tradition.
	That tradition was interrupted for 47 years by the theocratic regime.
	But the Iranian people will get this right.
	And we saw how many people in Iran wanted to be free.

Time

Text

Regime Change Risks 00:02:07

Jumping back to Iran for a moment here, you know, the concern, and I think this is a very legitimate concern, is that, you know, there's a kind of a power vacuum that gets filled by something worse.

And, you know, we looked at some of our, you know, regime change operations of the past and quite a number of them didn't, the more recent ones especially didn't go very well, right?

Didn't go very well at all.

And so what makes Iran different somehow?

I don't think we can get worse than what we've got right now.

But we've had regime change operations like Germany and Japan.

And that was because there was political will to make sure that those operations went well.

And we had American business that was fully on board.

I think the reason why Afghanistan and Iraq didn't go well is because you didn't have the secure environment in which business could come in and transform society.

And this is the issue right now in Syria.

You know, Syria's leader, a former al-Qaeda operative, said, look, and he said this to the United States.

He said, I want to be Japan and Germany.

I don't want to be Afghanistan or Iraq.

I don't want U.S. aid.

He said that.

He said, I want U.S. business.

And so we have to go back and understand what made Japan and Germany successful.

And we can do it again if we have the political will, if we can create the peace and sustainability.

And I'm sure that we can, because Iran is very different than Afghanistan or Iraq.

Well, one thing that Iran really does have going for it is that, again, I think, as I said earlier, it's an 80-20 issue, 80%.

I mean, this is, of course, a rough estimate gleaned through VPNs and so forth of sentiment, but really are against the regime and are looking to do something better.

They feel it's something that was imposed on them.

And, you know, of course, it's in an atrocious totalitarian system.

Iran vs. Iraq 00:00:20

Iran is not Iraq, although they border each other.

Iran has a tradition.

That tradition was interrupted for 47 years by the theocratic regime.

But the Iranian people will get this right.

And we saw how many people in Iran wanted to be free.