April 28, 2025 - Epoch Times
06:39
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| Time | Text |
|---|---|
| Through the tariffs, is America pushing the Chinese now to go to war? | |
| I've heard that said. | |
| The war only happens in two situations. | |
| One is when Chinese military is ready. | |
| Economy and the military is ready to invade Taiwan. | |
| That's the one possibility. | |
| When the military is ready, I don't think it's in the near future. | |
| Five years, they can be ready to fight because they will consider the war is not against Taiwan, it's against the United States and even the allies in Asia, Japan, Australia. | |
| So I don't think they are ready for that. | |
| But another possibility is when the CCP's ruling power is in danger. | |
| So they need to switch people's focus to the outside. | |
| And they need the war to prove their legitimacy of the rule. | |
| That's the only possibility. | |
| But I don't think currently they are ready for that, because they are still purging the military high-ranked leaders. | |
| And if you remember, the Soviet Red Army, before World War II, started to purge all the military leaders, high-ranked officials. | |
| And at the beginning of World War II, the invasion of the Nazi Germany into the Soviet Union, the first month, they lost 1 million armed forces. | |
| Because nobody knows how to fight. | |
| Because anybody who knows how to fight got purged or killed by Stalin. | |
| So now you are purging those military high-ranked officials. | |
| How can you make the war? | |
| I think it's very difficult. | |
| Besides, I think if the CCP's military is not ready, then that war will accelerate the collapse of the CCP regime. | |
| Why? | |
| Because if you cannot win the war, then you lose the support of the people and the support of the party itself. | |
| Bottom line, what is the impact of this tariff approach that the Trump administration has imposed on China and related countries, neighboring countries? | |
| I think neighboring countries, Xi Jinping just visited three countries, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia. | |
| I don't think those people, those countries are following China's path to trade with the United States in some field, export field. | |
| They compete each other, not help each other. | |
| So I don't think it will help China to get support from those Southeast Asian countries. | |
| There's no way. | |
| You can see Vietnam. | |
| Vietnam made a lot of promise, but never really keep the promise to the CCP. | |
| They try to keep the promise to the United States, and they want to zero. | |
| I think they tried to get zero tariffs as the way to fight the United States. | |
| I think yesterday they claimed they have zero tariffs policy to 45 countries. | |
| Less developed countries. | |
| The tariff impact is huge. | |
| Because currently, the three major drive force for Chinese economy, two are already failed. | |
| It's consumer and infrastructure. | |
| It's totally failed. | |
| And now they have only one way to get the economy forward. | |
| This is the export. | |
| That's the only way. | |
| But the tariff will stop the major part of their export income. | |
| And without this money from the United States, their other projects are gone. | |
| For example, the Belt and Road. | |
| It's based on a Belt and Road that basically you invest money. | |
| And most likely you cannot get the investment back. | |
| Because those countries are not stable and the economy is not stable. | |
| Politics are not stable. | |
| the whole environment is not stable. | |
| So they try to get money from the United States to invest in those Belt and Road. | |
| And once the money is stopped from the United States, then the Belt and | |
| other, | |
| Do you have any questions about China's economy? | |
| Not other things. | |
| I don't think those countries have ideology or any similarity, except they want to get some benefit from the trade with China or something. | |
| So other projects will get failed. | |
| CCP's other projects. | |
| For example, Panama just cancelled the Belt Road contract with China. | |
| Italy, I think, cancelled. | |
| So the Belt Road will shrink. | |
| China's influence in the world will shrink. | |
| Because mostly their influence is based on the money to buy, especially African countries. | |
| But the money comes from trade. | |
| So this is a huge impact. | |
| And also, inside China, there's more and more information come out. | |
| Those businesses based on the exports. | |
| We're all closing now. | |
| And there were lots of people who won't have jobs, and the whole society will be in a mess. | |
| That's what I think the CCP is very afraid of, because so many people don't have jobs, and they cannot create a job. | |
| So many years, they're based on the export. | |
| Their economy is not built on the... | |
| Consumers are not based on manufacturing something for the people inside China to consume. | |
| And you cannot change the whole structure overnight. |
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