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Jan. 22, 2024 - Doug Collins Podcast
25:47
New Hampshire has Finally Arrived
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, welcome back.
It is Monday.
We're just a little bit away from the next big date in the presidential primary.
Of course, as I've already said, I think this is pretty much over, and I think it is.
But we're going to see what last gasp it looks like the Nikki Haley campaign can have in New Hampshire.
Coming off the heels of a third place finish in New Hampshire.
Iowa, a second place finish by Ron DeSantis, in which in the past week we have seen his campaign basically the Super PAC and others dissolve.
They have laid off almost everyone on the campaign.
The DeSantis War Room, Twitter, and everything else is now gone.
For the most part and you know so again not sure how they're wanting to why or how they're wanting to hang in this race at this point but as we start the new week one of the things that you know we got to look at is is what's going on in two big areas and I'm gonna hit these here this today we're gonna do a podcast get you ready uh for what's going on and we're gonna hit on the approach issues that are going on in Congress right now I'm getting a lot of feedback from folks about that and And the discussion that Ukraine border,
let's break that down into what actually is going on in D.C. And then we'll spend a few minutes on New Hampshire and what comes next.
And I think that's going to be the key as we go.
So there we go.
After the break.
We are ready to go, and we'll come back and get it all started here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
Glad you're with us.
Hey, folks.
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Alright, we're back here on the podcast.
Let's start off with what happened at the end of last week when Congress was trying to get out as quickly as possible from the...
This snowstorm, the blizzard that was coming, less than an inch or so of rain, a couple inches of snow, but they were all getting out.
And really, nobody wanted to stay.
And I think that's one of the issues that we have to look at here, is this appropriations season It is just completely off the rails.
And for all of you out there, and I'm going to hit all sides here, so be equally offended at this.
There is no good answer to where they are at right now because, frankly, they could not get the job done last year.
I'm going to repeat something I have repeated over and over and over and over again.
I'm going to repeat it again.
In the House, the House's majority rule.
So unless the majority, which it happens to be the Republicans at this point, can pass something, there is no reason for the majority to blame the Democrats, period.
The end of statement just doesn't happen.
You have to be able to come to an understanding of what you're wanting, how you can do it, and putting the votes up to do it.
A quick flashback.
Remember, all the way back into the summer of last year, when it was hot and not cold like it is now, the House could not pass appropriations bills on agriculture.
They were failing to pass appropriations bills on others.
Some wasn't even getting a rule vote.
Defense was not passed.
Because of a lot of other issues, non-money issues most of the time, most of them had to do with, you know, they transiently had to do with money as far as funding issues and things, but it had to do with policy items on abortion in the agricultural bill, some of the other issues that go on with government assistance programs.
Also, you had in the backdrop of defense, you had to do Ukrainian money.
This was far...
Before, you had even the Israel-Hamas issue that is going on now, the war that is going on that we've had since then.
So, bring all this up.
Remember, There's 12 appropriations bills that are supposed to be passed really by the House, should pass them by the end of July at latest, typically the 1st of July.
So then you have a chance where the Senate can work on their appropriations bills, pass them out, and then typically spend August and September negotiating the bill.
Bills between the House and the Senate.
And then pass them out before September 30th.
Before the October 1st deadline.
That's the way it's supposed to work.
That's the constitutional way.
And I still hear members of both.
I hear members on all spectrums of the political scale.
Saying we've got to pass all 12 bills.
And I agree with them.
The problem you're having right now though.
Is in the House.
The House Republicans can't pass them by themselves.
They just can't.
And at this second, hear me, I'm not saying right or wrong.
I'm not calling this, you know, for whatever reason, those who have voted against rules or those who voted against appropriations bills that do not allow them to be taken up as individual bills, which is what most all of them have asked for, new individual bills.
I'm not saying you're, at this second, they're bad or good.
I'm just simply stating a fact.
Now, you can make your discussions, and we'll talk about that a little bit, about what is the alternative.
If you have 10 or 12 people who don't like a bill that 200 people do in your own conference, but you can't pass it, what do you do?
That's a whole different issue.
But the reality is right now is that the House cannot function.
It is an ungovernable majority.
And this has led us to this position now of just in the last six months.
And I know this seems...
Like it's forever.
But just in the last six months, if you go back almost seven, eight months, you get the first debt ceiling bill that was a compromise bill that McCarthy agreed to.
Most Republicans did not vote for.
It passed.
It contained what I'll call a kill switch in it, if you would, that said if they can't pass individual appropriations bill by April 1st of this year, which was a good time to do this, that there'll be a 1% across the board cut.
We'll argue the merits of 1% decreases in budgets all day long, 1% across the board, probably not the best way to go about this.
But again, we can discuss it.
Now, that led to McCarthy being in trouble with the base, especially when they would get to the end of the year and pass a CR, which he did the same thing on, brought it to the floor under suspension, which means that he can bypass the rule vote, vote, which is where Republicans have been stopping themselves lately at the rule vote, because it only takes two or three Republicans to vote against the rule and the bill can't come forward.
So McCarthy put forth a spending CR bill in September.
He did it on suspension and then the chair was vacated when the eight members, I believe it was, of the House actually voted to get rid of McCarthy.
That spent us then about six weeks.
Really, if you want to go eight to nine weeks of a chaotic time in the House because there was no speaker, nothing could happen.
Then when they got Mike Johnson as speaker, he had to get ramped up, and he was right on top of another spending deadline in which they then passed another CR. To take it to what we have now is this bifurcated CR in which you had several of the bills at one time, several of the bills at another time, and that they were going to work on them individually.
No surprise to many, including myself, that the frustration factor grew.
There was no work done on these bills In the process of even finding top line numbers or other things, which is well documented, not just an assumption.
They didn't have the numbers through December.
They had all of December to work on this, but they didn't want to work on them through December.
They were struggling with a FISA reauthorization, which, again, I know that has nothing to do with the probes, but it has to do with this internal struggle among the conference Republicans.
That, you know, is it do they want more, you know, sort of a status quo government surveillance system or do they want less or a more check on that government surveillance system?
And I think most Americans would want more of a check.
Unfortunately, you had a significant number of Republicans in the House who wanted to maintain a relatively semblance of status quo when it came to surveillance.
Again, another topic, another issue that is now crowded out the appropriations process.
So, we come into the first of the year.
We're a couple weeks away from the first deadline, which was last Friday, and shockingly to no one, no individual bills were discussed.
The only thing that was discussed was a CR to get you further on because once they, quote, had a number fixed, a top line number, if you would, once it was fixed, then they still had to write the bills.
And from sources and others, the new team at Speaker Johnson's office didn't realize that it actually takes a while to do that, several weeks, if not longer, especially if you don't have some of the details of which bill gets how much on their top line, 302B number is what it's called.
So they realized, oops, we can't do this in the next two weeks, and they had to push it till March now.
That was the vote from last week.
But again, the Speaker could not bring it up on a rule because you had conservatives who wanted to attach HR2, which is the border bill that they passed last year, to this.
If they sent that back to the Senate, it was going to result in a shutdown that would at least last it through the weekend, if not through longer.
So the decision was made not to...
Do that.
Send it to the floor.
One Republican majority vote, in other words, 107 to 106, passed this bill on to the president last night.
All Democrats voted for it.
107 Republicans voted for it.
106 Republicans voted against it.
This is where we stand.
And now we put ourselves on a timer until March 1st, and if they don't get around to it, then we're going to be in the same position when we come then.
Now, why is a CR bad?
There's several reasons a CR is bad.
Number one, long-term spending can't happen under a CR. It has to be limited to the amount of monies and the monies from the previous...
The really the inherent language of a continuing resolution means it just continues the budget or the appropriations last package.
So this would have been the Pelosi-Biden package from December of 22 that is going forward here.
So as you look at this, The real problem is coming up is that you're still operating as if the Democrats were in control of the House.
And I know everybody has well known that the Republicans are in control of the House, but this is why CR is bad.
Multiple reasons for that.
So this is where we're operating.
Now, there are some conservatives now who want to just say, forget it, let's do a CR until the end of the year, although they're not happy about it, but they get the 1% cut across the board that they were looking, that they can claim as a victory going into saying we cut back spending.
In several areas, and we'll just try to do this at the end of the year.
My problem is, is Washington, and I was a part of this.
I talked about it then.
I worked to try and fix it then.
But nobody wants to take a hard vote in Washington, D.C. many times.
And I get it, because the political gauge is so amped up on social media and everything else about every vote that is taken.
Especially when a group feels like they're not getting what they want.
The big issue with all of this, however, though, is the fact that there's no end in sight.
There's nothing to break this cycle.
If you passed a CR, let's just say they got one and just said, you know, sort of heck with it.
We're just going to pass a CR, all 12 bills to the end of September, and try again this year.
What gives us any hope that they'll be able to pass in the House 12 appropriations bills when we just have seen the results of a whole year when they can't pass the individual bills?
Now, they can pass some of them, but they've not been able to pass all of them, and 12 is the magic number here.
So, just understand something.
For those of you who say, well, just shut it down, that's our leverage, okay?
What's your way out?
If you say, you know, that I've got to have H.R. 2 and that's the only way out.
The Senate says we're not going to do it.
You got members of the Republican Party in the Senate who says not going along with that and they're able to pass something out.
You're at a standstill.
And at the end of the day, you have a shutdown in which I guarantee you, as we've seen in the past, the Republicans in this House will be blamed for.
And in an election year in which we're trying to get rid of Joe Biden, you're giving the Biden administration control of the budget during this time.
Understand something, if a shutdown occurs, the administration gets to pick how the money is spent, the emergency funds are spent.
That's something you would want to stay away from, I believe, if you're a Republican in this country.
You do not want Joe Biden to have control, the administration to have control over how money is spent during a shutdown.
I say all of this to just simply let you know this.
They're going to have to figure this out.
They're going to have to get to a point in saying even if they did a CR to the end of the year, they're going to have to get back into the Approx Committee and then figure out how to get 218 votes on the floor for the Republicans.
Until they do that, we're going to keep going around and around and around and around and around and around and around and this and it's not going to get any better.
And again, I saw it when I was there, had participatory in it, seeing what all was happening and But yet, when it comes to spending bills, we don't have a good track record on pushing for stuff because we have to have something to push from.
And if you have nothing to push from, it makes it even harder to get the negotiated plan in when you control one of three branches that have to be involved in this.
There's your update on the spending bill.
I wouldn't worry about it because I'm not sure.
Last I saw over the weekend, they still don't have the 302B numbers, which is the individual top lines for the appropriations bills negotiated and finalized.
So they're still trying to figure out where to allocate money into these bills.
And until they actually have those numbers, it's hard to write a bill to a top line that you don't have.
Other things going on.
You've got FISA. You've got other issues that are going to be going on.
You've got the Ukraine money with border bill issues.
So a lot going to be to talk about, but the appropriations process is going nowhere.
And a lot of it starts and finishes with the fact that the Republicans cannot stick together on A plan that would actually get signed into law.
Until that happens, it doesn't mean that they have to collapse on everything that they want.
It doesn't mean that they don't get things that they want.
In fact, they can get things they want.
They can team with the Senate and get things they want.
But it's not going to be everything.
And we've got to start somewhere.
And right now, by the way, shutting down the government does not help our national debt at all.
Period.
Doesn't happen.
Because when they open it back up, they're going to pay all the employees and the contracts that weren't getting paid.
Enough said.
Let's move on to New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is just literally right around the corner here, and the race after the complete just...
Manhandling of the field that Trump did in Iowa, you have several things that have come to fruition here.
Number one, the first fruition is this, that DeSantis' campaign is over.
It is simply not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, that he finally suspends his campaign and moves on.
Polling in New Hampshire right now has, on the average, on the real-care politics average, you have 46.8 for Trump, 33.3 Haley, and Bantus is really nowhere even in that mix.
So, you look at...
Let's just break this New Hampshire poll down for a second, the polling that has just been coming out.
And by the way, there was this one poll, this outlier poll, the other day that had 40-40.
Nobody's even close to that.
The average in the last few days, and they have one this week, The Boston Globe had it Trump plus 17. The St. Anselm poll had Trump 14. The Emerson poll, WHDH Emerson poll on 1.8 to 1.10, which would have been before Iowa, still had it at 1.16.
The closest poll was a CNN poll earlier this month with Haley and them at a plus 7. The averages here, however, are...
You know, really what show is it, and Trump is just continuing to make this a done race.
DeSantis is never getting above 6% in any of these polls since the first of the year, with Christie being out.
Haley did pick up a good many of the Christie voters, but what is interesting is since, for the most part, on the polls that are used in these averages, since Christie dropped out, Trump actually jumped above 50% in these polls.
So, look, we're not going anywhere in these...
There's no polls that are showing you anything other than the fact that Donald Trump is, and commandingly, Donald Trump will be the nominee, and there's not a lot of discussion about this.
I was confronted this week, because I was on, this past week, I was on TV, as many were talking about this campaign, I was outnumbered and did a lot, and was asked about, well, Doug, how do you know this is over?
Well, here's the deal.
Ron DeSantis spent all he had in Iowa and didn't win a county, period.
That's enough to have ended it right there.
Not sure why we're continuing this on.
He's quit all spending, quit ad buys.
He's done everything else.
People are being laid off.
It's over.
Except for the official announcement that it's over.
Because he has no path.
He's going into New Hampshire.
He's polling 5 or 6%.
That's going to be a distant third.
I mean, way distant third at best.
Going into South Carolina, polls.
This is where it really becomes the problem for Haley.
Haley could, you know, and I've said this before, even if a miracle happened and Haley somehow pulled off an upset in New Hampshire, this is what she faces when she goes to the next primary, which is about two and a half, three weeks away, and that is the South Carolina polling numbers.
The average right now for Trump is 30.2%.
She's not, she is getting the, this is consistent since October.
She's down 25 points or more.
It's just not a pass.
This quote, comeback in South Carolina, is not a comeback.
In fact, it would be an embarrassment right now if it was to happen.
Could it get a little closer?
Possibly.
And that's assuming miracles in New Hampshire.
But also, money's not going to be coming in.
There's going to be a lot of problems here.
By the way, if you're curious, again, DeSantis is barely registering double digits in South Carolina.
So if there was this idea that he could come back in South Carolina, that's just not happening.
So let's go on into Nevada, which would be the next Republican caucus state here.
And Haley is not even on the Nevada caucus.
And again, it's a 60-point lead for Trump.
DeSantis will not be around.
Ramasamy and Christie are no longer in the race.
Trump's to take in Nevada.
And then you would get into really what would be the heart of this campaign, and that would be the Super Tuesday polls.
And again, it shows the same thing that we're looking at.
In South Carolina and Nevada and others that Trump is just overwhelming this field.
The best thing right now in fairness is to the Republican Party to come together and Make sure that we're now in a position, it's going to be Trump and it's going to be Biden.
The Republicans have got to fix the messes on what is important, immigration, economy, the national security, our role in the world.
Those are the things that's going to matter.
And when we look at that, I think that would be the key that we need to focus on for the next six or seven months.
I said this.
Last week on Friday's Finest, this could end up being the longest general election campaign, true general election campaign that we've ever seen.
And it's the first time in generations that we have had an incumbent president, almost 100 years, I guess, a incumbent president facing a president that he defeated.
In other words, you have two men who have been president running for president again.
So it's going to be an interesting run.
It's going to be a long run.
But getting out of this primary is New Hampshire.
We'll see what happens.
But right now, there's just no path.
And that's why when I said, well, Doug, how do you know it's over?
There's just no pathway forward after that for the Haley campaign, barring some miracle.
In which she was to beat Trump in New Hampshire by double digits, which is not going to happen, or something else was to happen.
I think, again, I think it goes back to something that I've said before on this podcast, and I've said it on many other times as well, is I think that they're a part of the DeSantis and Haley grouping in particular that are just sticking around thinking that something's going to happen to Donald Trump that would make him not be the nominee, nominee and they wanted to be there in case that happens.
It's a sad way to run the campaign at this point, but you've not made, you've, you've tried to make your case.
You've not made your case.
And, and right now it's time for us to look ahead to November because Joe Biden is the one that we've got to be.
All right.
That finishes up a Monday here on the Doug Collins podcast.
I wanted to give you the lowdown on the approach bill, why this process is a problem.
Also, a little look at New Hampshire.
We'll have more on this as we go through the primary season here, but hopefully we'll be also looking at other issues as well because we've got a big election year.
We're going to still be focusing on Senate races, House races.
Everything's up for grabs, and we'll see you here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
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