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Nov. 4, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
30:47
The Race for the Senate
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
In this house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, it is that time of year.
It is getting exciting around election time, it's fall, everything.
Football's going on, everything's going great.
I am so excited to have you as part of the podcast.
For this week, I mean, we're a week out.
I mean, this is the final stretch of the elections.
We're going to talk about that today.
Over the next few days, the next few podcasts, we're going to break down the Senate race.
We're going to break down the government.
Excuse me, the governor's races.
I'm just so excited I can't even talk now.
You know, the governor's races.
We're going to talk about also, you know, possibly what it means for the House to take back over and the realities there.
And I want to talk about that a little bit as we get in.
But also I want to talk about another topic is debates.
Deal with that just a little bit in the next few podcasts.
I just want you to get prepared, have that, you know, be ready for Election Day and be ready for, you know, just what is coming up.
So there's a lot of great stuff on the table, a lot of things that have been moving.
We're starting to see what I believe is the, in these final week, the push to get voters out, turnout.
I mean, turnout has been tremendously heavy.
In Georgia and Pennsylvania and other places.
I mean, we're just seeing a lot, you know, and it goes to this, you know, the old reality of this, especially this discussion of Georgia and electoral suppression that Stacey Abrams championed and made millions off of, which her lawsuit was again thrown out just a couple of weeks ago.
She's losing badly to Brian Kemp.
She's even started cutting back her spending.
You know, here, you know, just weeks out, a week out of the election, she's cutting back to how much ad buys she's having.
I guess she's wanting to save her money for something else.
I don't know, but it's not going to be for the governor's mansion.
That's for sure the way it looks here in Georgia.
But I do want to take some time to look at this, but I also wanted to remind you, thedougcollinspodcast.com is where you can get all the information about our podcast, previous podcast, the newsletter, and also some exciting news about a trip that I'll be telling you about more over the coming days to Washington, D.C. next April with me and my wife.
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We've got a very limited amount of seatings.
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We have some bonuses for those who sign up before the end of November.
So you really want to get in and take advantage of these offers as we go.
But before we get into anything else, let's get started on this discussion of electoral politics and especially how it's playing out.
Let's just start with the Senate races.
Arizona.
We're going to start in Arizona because I think this is tied into the governor's race.
We're going to talk about it in a little bit.
With Mark Kelly, Blake Masters, Arizona has been one of the hot states over the last year and a half.
Coming out of the 2020 election, very similar to Georgia, Nevada, and others, which are the in-place seats.
Blake Masters came out of the primary.
It's been an up-and-down rollercoaster.
To be very frank with you, there's been a hard discussion between the National Republican Senate campaign, Mitch McConnell's leadership packs, and others on whether to support Blake Masters in this race.
And that's been back and forth.
Peter Thiel, a big backer of Blake Masters, has kicked back in.
In funding this race, and it shows.
This race has tightened up a great deal.
The debate between Masters and Kelly, I think, helped Masters solidify himself as a legitimate candidate in this race and one that conservatives can get behind and all Republicans can get behind in Arizona.
But we're not going to fool each other here.
And when we talk about Arizona, Carrie Lake is the engine that's running the train in Arizona.
Her campaign has been very aggressive.
Her campaign has garnered a lot of attention.
There are people who are just drawn to her personality or willingness to speak.
She has been Just an amazing campaigner out on the stump in Arizona, and it shows.
How is it showing?
It's lifting up the rest of the Republican candidates in this race.
So Masters is going to have that headwind going in.
Kelly, we're going to talk about several states here over the next few minutes.
I'm not going to make these long podcasts today.
I want you to have this information, and I want you to get out and start working, especially if you're in any of the states we've talked about.
Mark Kelly is experiencing what Raphael Warnock is in Georgia, Cordes Masto is in Nevada and others, and that is just simply the Biden hangover.
That's what we'll just call it.
It's the Biden hangover.
I mean, Biden is not rushing to these states to help because, frankly, he doesn't help.
Even Kamala Harris, the vice president, is not a help in these states because people are looking at this.
The flip states, these are states that are very close.
And the inflation, the economy, these are actually having dramatic effects as we see the turnout of these races.
So I think Masters is feeling the pull of Carrie Lake and her governor's campaign.
He's benefiting, as Mark Kelly is being hindered by the Joe Biden administration, basically the midterm, which we always hear the discussion of a midterm in which the White House typically loses seats in the Congress in the first midterm after an election.
And we're seeing that in a bigger way.
It's actually gaining steam.
And that, of course, I believe is helping masters here.
The race, you know...
Polling coming in in these last week is just really showing this race in a dead heat.
We're inside the margin of error.
You know, when adjusting these polls, looking at who's turning out, how these polls are being run.
I mean, you just simply see that the Masters has the momentum here.
Immigration is still a huge issue in Arizona, along with the economy.
And I mean, this is frankly a place in which the Biden administration has absolutely no traction.
They have absolutely nothing To offer here, they have completely opened the borders.
They have completely, you know, just made, you know, a mockery of what is our southern border.
And folks like Arizona, you know, New Mexico, there's some issues we'll talk about there.
Texas, of course.
These are real issues, real meat and potatoes issues that we're dealing with when it comes to these statewide races, especially Governor, especially Senate.
And you'll find that others, you know, on down the line in Arizona as well.
But let's just starting off in Arizona.
I mean, I'm looking at Masters in a squeaker.
I don't think this is going to be a blowout either way, but I think it's going to have possibly a little bit more room in it than people would have given it credit for just a few weeks ago.
In fact, there was a lot of people at the end of August, 1st of September, taking this race.
And moving it from even the contested part because they just didn't see Masters being able to come back.
To his credit, he has.
This is one that I'm hopeful will put in the Republican column.
You put this one in the Republican column followed by the next one we're going to talk about.
That's the Laxhawk-Cortez Masto race in Nevada.
I mean, these are two now pickup seats in the three pickups that the Republicans needed at least one of to make the majority in the United States Senate, giving us what I believe, and we'll talk about this more later in another podcast, is the House is going to be flipping.
And what does that mean as we go forward?
Having a Senate is vitally important.
And let me just interject this in as we talk politics for a second.
Having the Senate is extremely important when you're trying to bring an administration to account.
The House is important.
I served in the House.
I'm a man of the House.
I believe that the House has, you know, a great deal of power to investigate.
It has the power of the purse.
But the reality, when it comes to some of these issues that are being done by the Biden administration, when it comes to judges, when it comes to reconciliation, when it comes to these issues that, you know, if they just stick together, even at a 50-50 with a vice president and tie, they can make major changes to policy in our country.
And we've already seen that.
So you take away that ability in the Senate, and then things get a lot tougher for Biden administration to put through.
Because remember, they're not putting things through because they're bipartisan.
They're putting things through because they have the reconciliation option available to them.
Which allows them to have a majority in the House, which they're going to lose, so they won't have that anymore.
But even if a miracle was pulled off and the Democrats kept the House, they're not going to have the partnership in the Senate to, if they can find all 50 senators staying together, then they're not going to be able to...
They could push things through that they normally wouldn't get to push through.
Without that 50-50 split, without the majority, it means that Republicans will control the agenda in the Senate, and that means that anything from Supreme Court justices to District Court and Circuit Court, that train will stop.
And you'll see a lot of that happen in the month of December, because if Schumer loses majority, he'll do everything he possibly can to do as much damage as he can in December.
Laying all that out, let's get back to the race in Nevada.
Adam Laxalt has run a great race.
Adam Laxalt has been out front in this race for a long time.
Cortez Masto feeling the same problems, and maybe in a little bit more precise way than Mark Kelly in Arizona, in that Nevada is so heavenly...
Heavily dependent upon tourism and service industry.
And so during the pandemic, the shutdowns, the Democratic's overreach when it comes to everything from mask mandates to others, this has caused a real backlash against Democrats in Nevada.
You're seeing it's in the governor's race as well.
Again, we're seeing a lot of, especially races that have governors and senator races, we're seeing these break toward Republicans in the end.
This one is no different.
Laxalt's been keeping a lead for about a month, a small lead.
It's in the margin of errors.
But when you look at projections, you look at how these numbers are breaking out, and you just get from what I've talked to people on the ground in Nevada, Laxalt is pulling ahead here, and this will give the Senate Republicans another vote.
The good part about what we're looking at now, if Masters does pull off Arizona, Laxalt pulls off Nevada, the Republicans could conceivably lose one of the whole seats, and we'll talk about those in a minute.
And still retain the majority.
Because if they lost one of the whole seats, and those are in states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, you know, if they lost one of those, then they'd have to have two to make up the majority.
This could give them that buffer on the unthinkable happening in somewhere like Pennsylvania or elsewhere.
But we've got a lot of news left to go with them as well.
This race has just been one of those just grinded out, grinded out races in Nevada.
Turnout's going to be key.
Democrats have always had a great turnout mechanism, the old reed machine that is spoke of in Nevada.
But Laxalt and the Republicans have been fighting back on this.
So that has been good to see.
And, you know, this is becoming more and more likely to be the best pickup opportunity for Republicans in this cycle.
Let me touch on a few races before we get to some of the mainstreams that I just wanted to touch on.
Connecticut Senate race, I just want to show you how much this headwind of Democrats is having to face.
Dick Blumenthal has been in there for a long time.
I mean, he's had every kind of, you know, Fauxpas from lying about his military history to others.
But Laura Levy, former ambassador, she is actually running a good race and polls have actually tightened up a little bit in this race.
And, you know, do I expect Levy to pull this one out?
No, but I will say her campaign team has done an excellent job in making this what we'll call spreading the field.
And when you spread the field in these races, it means that Democrats are having to defend areas where they didn't really think that they were going to have to defend.
And nobody would have expected Democrats to be spending money for Dick Blumenthal in Connecticut Senate race.
And Leora Levy has pushed that.
And again, that helps out when you're looking across the country, how we keep seats that we need to keep.
Now, I want to connect this one to the race in Washington State with Tiffany Smiley and Patty Murray.
Tiffany Smiley has a great backstory that is just an amazing accomplishment to her as a wife and a mother and, you know, what has happened to her husband who is a veteran who is wounded.
I mean, everything that has come about is she's put on a great race in a state that, again, you go back six, eight months ago, nobody thought this race would get even, you know, within single digits.
And it's not only in single digits, it's tightening up.
And the consensus is with some more money, although we're in the last few days here, this could actually pull this race even closer.
If you don't believe me, this is not just a conservative believing Republican candidates are doing better.
$3 million has been put into what could be the, you know, if the Democrats were to happen to keep control of the Senate, the new Speaker of the Senate, where she'd be the longest majority held there, longevity-wise.
But they're going to put $3 million more into this race.
Murray's campaign is asking for it.
They're wanting to fend this off.
Now, some of this could be simply that it's closer than they want it to be.
They want to build a bigger margin, maybe to discourage Republicans in the future.
Or it could be that, frankly, and I've been up into Washington State in this cycle, and it is that there is just, again, what we're seeing from this oppressive Democratic governance over the past few years through the pandemic and through the recovery and others, that folks are just tired.
And these two races I wanted to highlight sort of quickly here.
I don't want to spend a ton of time on these races because I do believe the Democrats will win.
You know, in these races, but I do believe that they're showing what is possible when you're expanding the field, number one, and number two, you're in a very much of a headwind that the Democrats are facing at this point.
Another one is very interesting.
I just want to point out to you because this one highlights a difference on the Republican side.
Not sure it's going to make a difference in the actual election.
This is the Joe O'Day, Michael Bennett race in Connecticut.
I mean, not Connecticut, Colorado.
I've got Connecticut on my mind now.
Colorado Senate race.
And O'Day, the interesting part here is that former President Trump has come out very strongly against the Republican O'Day while Ron DeSantis has actually endorsed O'Day.
So again, you're seeing a little bit of a difference of opinion of those in governorships and also the former president.
You don't normally see that in this race.
This race has tightened up.
If this would be, this would be one of those upsets that, you know, it's just sort of off the map right now.
As we go, I think the interesting point To this race is the difference of opinion of some top Republicans around the country in putting support.
And there's been others who have supported O'Day as well, although the former president has not.
Florida, this one's over.
It's a matter of just hitting the The final stages here, Marco Rubio will take out Val Demings in this seat and retain for the Republicans.
Ohio, this has been trending in the last little bit after the debates with JD Vance, Tim Ryan, which were very spirited debates.
I have to say, you know, both sides making their points, both sides, you know, using the debate formats, which I don't like debates.
I don't think we have debates anymore.
I think they're question and answer sessions with a chance to Yell at your opponent or to gotcha your opponent.
And that's just where we're at with these races.
But Vance held his own.
Tim Ryan's been running a very moderate campaign as opposed to the very liberal governance that he did in the United States House.
Vance is pulling this one.
Ahead in these final days, you're seeing consistently him leading two to four points in the polls.
I think this one will be a J.D. Vance win in Ohio, given Ohio's move more toward Republicans in the last little bit.
This race, again, is an important one because it is a hold seat.
Republicans had to hold this seat.
It looks like J.D. Vance will be the hold of Republicans in this seat.
Brings us to another hold seat.
This is Wisconsin.
This one has gotten closer, although in the last few days, Ron Johnson's campaign has been outperforming Mandela Barnes in the polling.
This one is tied very much to the governor's race, the Michael Zevers race in this one.
I see the Republicans moving ahead here.
Statewide has been a good state for Republicans.
Going back a few cycles, it flipped over this past cycle in 2018. When we had a lot of issues with conservative candidates up and down the ballot.
So again, Johnson always starts off slow as it appears like in these campaigns.
He seems to struggle in campaigning.
Governance is great.
Campaigning, not so much.
Mandela Barnes is just Very extreme, one of the more extreme senatorial candidates that you're going to see in this cycle.
Johnson's making that point.
Again, keeping this in the hold column for Republicans.
North Carolina was some concern about this one.
This is the Ted Budd, Sherri Beasley race.
Ted Budd, the Republican congressman who's running for Senate here.
Trump endorsed looking at this race, was much tighter coming out of September.
Now that Bud's campaign has kicked in, the headwinds Beasley is having to face as a Democrat in a, I would say, a center-right state, although they have elected statewide Democrats here recently.
Bud is pulling away in this, and it looks like this will continue to be a Republican hold for Ted Bud.
As we move forward, one that was thought to be in play, and it could be.
I mean, this one is an off-the-map kind of.
This is the Don Boldick-Maggie Hasson race up in New Hampshire.
Still leans toward the Democrat, Hanson, in this.
Bolduc has been putting on a valid and very valiant fight up there, although he has been hampered with money and fundraising and lack of attention from the National Senatorial Committee.
They have put back in some more money here in the last bit, again, stretching the field similar to what we saw in Connecticut and other places.
On a break here in the next few days for Republicans, this could be a one we could wake up on the 9th of November and say, hey, we've got a new senator from New Hampshire and Republicans take that seat.
Again, this is a stretch race, but worth considering.
This gets us into really the final two that I want to talk about.
The first being Georgia.
This is the Raphael Warnock-Herschel Walker race.
You know, Warnock, it's been inside the margin of error now for weeks.
Occasionally you'll see a Warnock poll that shows him up a couple.
Then you'll see a Walker poll that shows him up a couple.
A lot of them that show them within a tie.
A lot of them show them within one or two points of each other.
Again, the attacks on Walker have been incessant since he won the primary.
He's had to overcome all of that, and still being in this race shows a great deal of fortitude on his campaign's part.
His campaign folks have done a great job keeping Walker In this race, Walker has had to overcome yet again another allegation of another past affair that allegedly ended in an abortion.
Walker has vehemently denied this.
This is still playing out.
I'm beginning to believe, though, that like others in Georgia, they're not able to get over.
Neither Walker or Warnock are getting close to that 50%.
They're getting closer, but they're not there yet.
There are several who believe both camps, both the Walker camp and I believe in the Warnock camp as well, Who believe that the percentage of this one headed to a runoff is actually higher, that neither one of them are going to get to 50%, which means there'll be a December runoff in the state of Georgia.
If that is true, this race may be, given a bad night in a couple of other states, you know, say a Arizona or a Pennsylvania or a Wisconsin, This could come down to being the deciding vote in the Senate.
The way the laces are breaking right now, I don't see this happening.
I don't think this is going to be a deciding race for the majority in the United States Senate.
I think it will be an addition for Republicans in this and that being Walker.
But these late attacks on abortion and the prior girlfriends that are coming out Now, and going and making their case and story told about Walker, it looks as if the Democrats are saving these for later in this race to either keep this race under the 50% to get it to a runoff so that they can try and use this more in an effective, what they believe would be an effective manner against Walker.
But I think if this race goes to a runoff and Republicans already have control of the Senate, then there may be an even more stronger push for Republicans to get out and add to that majority by putting Walker back in.
Again, this race was tied at one point to the governor's race.
It is no longer the governor's race.
We'll talk about it in another podcast as Kemp has solidified seemingly that race, given the Turnout models and others that are coming out right now in Georgia, which, by the way, are heavy.
No thanks to folks like Stacey Abrams and even Warnock and others who claim Georgia was Jim Crow 2.0, the president himself.
Biden saying this is disparaging the state of Georgia is not coming true.
We're seeing a great deal of voting in Georgia in this Walker-Warnock race.
You know, we could get, as they say in baseball, we could get some free baseball here in this one.
There's a lot of people in Georgia praying that that doesn't happen, but it could.
So, again, just putting that on the radar as the race in Georgia, again, the third of the states are the main pickup states for Republicans.
That brings us to one of the races that has been just on the top of the list for a while, and it highlighted by the other night a just absolutely horrific debate performance by John Fetterman.
Fetterman and Oz.
Fetterman has stayed up a little.
This is a hold seat that Oz needs to hold.
A few weeks ago, this was still a four or five point race.
It's now basically gotten into the margin of error and odds closing and gaining in these projections quickly.
It will be interesting to see what happens after the people get a taste of what happened in this debate.
Now, I will say 50% almost of the ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania.
So, you're seeing very much of the, you know, if they were going to be for Fetterman, they're going to be for Fetterman, they're going to be for Oz, they were for Oz.
Now the question will be is, is there of the rest of the people who are still voting in Pennsylvania, will they hold out to a vote from Fetterman after seeing really how badly he performed in the debate, that his recovery from this stroke is not where the campaign wants you to believe it to be.
In fact, it was sort of sad, to be honest.
If this is what the Democrats think they have to do, they could have talked about this a long time ago.
I have said on the podcast, I've said on other interviews that I've done that I wish John Fetterman the best in getting better.
I do not wish John Fetterman to be in the United States Senate trying to get better.
We need people who are conservative, Number one, but also able to do the job from day one, and that's Dr. Oz would be able to do the job.
Whereas Vetterman, you know, frankly, there's so many questions were left open the other night in the fact that it could be simply do the job.
You're not going to have, you know, closed captioning everywhere you go.
You're going to have to start, you know, having to be able to process that.
Is that something that, you know, in years to come he can get better with?
Sure.
But right now it's not.
This is an important seat.
It is still very much up in the air, and it's mainly an important seat because this would be a Republican hold.
Conservatives do not need to lose this seat because if they do, then they have to win two others to make sure that the Republicans gain control of the United States Senate.
Now, we've looked at that saying Arizona and Nevada and probably Georgia are pickup seats that look like the Republicans can and will take.
But you never want to leave that margin as close as it can be.
It would always be good to have a couple of seat margin as you go forward.
So, you know, look, I'm going to talk a little bit more about debates as we go.
But this Fetterman performance the other night was awful.
And if you don't believe it, just listen.
All you have to do is over the past week, you can listen to what has been said by the liberal media from The View to others.
And even Joe Scarborough come out and said, you know, he's struggling, that this was a problem.
So again, it's just going to determine how many of those people who had not cast votes in Pennsylvania look and see what happened in this debate and then decide if they're going to continue to support Dr. Oz or they're going to support John Fetterman.
It's just I have a hard time, frankly, seeing an independent Who would agree that Fetterman is ready to take this step into the United States Senate?
I just struggle with it.
I think people with disabilities are wonderful folks who can overcome.
He is so new into a new disability.
This is not something that he's lived with for years.
This happened in May before the primary.
He's just learning how to get back his cognitive skills and ability and how to communicate.
This is not someone who has lived with these conditions all of their life and they know how to overcome and they have to make the adaptions and need be.
This has nothing to do with a disabled candidate.
This has everything to do with a candidate who had a serious stroke whose campaign seemingly hid that from the press and others, and now they're pushing him out there because they have no other choice.
And that is just a sad way to run a campaign.
So there's the Senate.
That's a rundown of the major Senate races.
There's some others.
Missouri, again, firmly in the Republican control.
They're spent.
We'll win that one with no problems.
I think the rest of them will play out as they normally do.
So again, wanted to give you that quick update.
That's the United States Senate.
We'll now take a look at the governor's races in our next podcast.
God bless you.
We'll see you next time on the Doug Collins Podcast.
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