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Nov. 2, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
31:04
The Governor Races
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Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
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Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, Doug Collins.
Welcome back to the podcast.
It's that time of the year.
It's that time that we're getting into the final days of these elections and it is a lot to talk about.
I promised you we were going to go through these races.
We've done this.
We've had the Senate races.
Now we're going to get into the governor's races, where you're having a lot of infighting.
You're having a lot of battles for these governor seats that really are going to reflect a lot of going into the next cycle of presidential races, but also, you know, how we come out of this pandemic, how these states are going to handle inflation, how they're going to handle health care, how they're going to handle the issues that have, you know, come out of this first couple of years, the Biden administration.
And it has affected states greatly.
Another issue that I'll just put out there as we talk about, it will be how they handle the lack of COVID money, which has been supplanting a lot of these state budgets and allowing them to do extra spending or borrow money and it not really affect taxpayers.
Those money is going to be gone.
So these races for governor are very important.
Before we jump into the governor's races though, Look, go to thedougcollinspodcast.com, thedougcollinspodcast.com.
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All right.
Let's dive into these governor's races across the state.
I'm going to start at home for me personally, and that's down here in Georgia.
This race is one of the ones that was the talked about race for the last really four years when you look at folks in politics who talk about governor's races and the Race that was sort of looked at.
Governor Kemp won by a smaller margin back in 2018. He came in, had a little over a year in office, and then the pandemic hit.
He's had to deal with the pandemic again, and all of the while, In the back rearview mirror was Stacey Abrams, who, one, did not claim to have lost the race, basically.
She wouldn't give up.
She wouldn't concede.
She thought there was still problems.
Again, one of the, you know, it's amazing to me how the press does not classify what she or Pelosi or Raskin or any of them did in the 2018 or 2020, you know, 2016 election said about votes that didn't count.
Even Hillary Clinton Don't call them anything but solid citizens while they call any Republican who cast doubts on rules that were changed to allow voting in different formats that are not prescribed by law in those states.
Frankly, those folks are created and treated differently.
But Kemp built up, you know, worked toward this.
He knew that, I think a lot of folks knew that Abrams wanted to be governor in the state of Georgia.
She was going to do everything she possibly could to be governor in the state of Georgia.
So she went out, she started organizations, she raised money, she made a lot of money for herself.
And this was supposed to be the premier race.
This was going to be the governor's race that everybody was looking at.
You had monies upon monies This is very reminiscent of the Warnock-Walker race on the Senate side here in Georgia.
But unlike these races in some of the other states, such as Arizona, Wisconsin, even Nevada, where you're seeing very much of a correlation between the governor's races and the Senate races, These are races that this race in Georgia are not correlated.
The governor's race and the Senate race are really not come together.
They're not campaigning together.
You don't see coordination together.
And part of that is the race on the Walker-Warnock race is close.
A lot of different issues going on.
And frankly, the Kemp-Abrams race has turned out to be not close.
You know, the polls now are showing a consistent five to seven point win for Kemp.
I think that may come a little closer as turnout and his early voting, which has been extremely heavy in the state of Georgia over the last little bit.
It comes together, but I think in the end, Kemp is pulling away from this.
Abrams, I mentioned this in a previous podcast, that Abrams' money has even been pulled away.
She's not running as much ads in these final days of the campaign.
She's pulled back.
Maybe they're repositioning money to do it in digital or to do it in mail or do something.
But you can tell that their campaign is being perceived as pulling back, which is an indication if you're pulling back money in the last few days of an election, it really shows that you don't have a lot of confidence in You know, where your campaign is and, you know, maybe, you know, they're just holding the money to do something else with it.
But again, what was supposed to be the premier governor's race, you know, rematch, if you would, has never really materialized.
Stacey Abrams has blamed everything from, you know, being misrepresented in the press, which is comical, to, you know, to just...
Being against women, against people of color.
I mean, it's just a one constant excuse after another.
And frankly, the real excuse for Stacey Abrams is that she's just not a good candidate.
She does not fit Georgia, especially in this cycle.
She had an amazing run in 2018. She came very close in 2018 to beating Brian Kemp in the general election to become governor of Georgia, but she didn't.
And now the politics of the left have shown themselves in the Joe Biden administration, have shown themselves through the pandemic, her hypocritical stances on, you know, saying that masks ought to be in classrooms and everybody all wear masks, but yet then showing up to make sure everybody sees her face in a picture with kids who all have masks on.
And just one example of the hypocritical stance that I believe has led this time to Stacey not being as competitive.
As she's already said, she said, you know, I'm not a new candidate anymore.
This is not new lightning in a bottle, which I've said for months.
And she's right.
She's not getting the balance or bump from being a, quote, new voice in the party.
Now, she's still looked at as a rock star among Democrats across the country, much as Beto O'Rourke has looked at.
As being a rock star.
However, they're going to both share another thing in common and as another statewide loss in their two respective states.
We'll get to Beto here, Robert Francis here in just a second.
In Texas, in Georgia, Stacey Abrams looks to be going down for her second statewide defeat.
I will say this.
Most of the time, two statewide defeats pretty much indicate you're over.
It will take something very...
Different in the state.
I believe for Stacey Abrams to make, say, a third run at governor or a run at Senate or others, I think now you will see Stacey become a national figure as far as raising money.
And being a liberal spokesperson.
But as far as politics, really probably in the state of Georgia, just don't see that happening.
And that's a real blow to her presidential aspirations.
It's hard for me to see if Joe Biden doesn't win, it's hard for me to see her being considered number one, possibly as a presidential candidate herself.
She can't even win her home state.
Number two, it's even harder to see her being added as a vice presidential candidate on that ticket, again, given the fact that she can't win her own state, which would indicate that she would have problems in many other states similarly situated to Georgia.
I just wanted to start off here.
This one has had so much going back and forth.
Brian Kemp's team has done a good job of positioning themselves.
They've done a good job of, you know, also portraying Kemp's team has portrayed Abrams' positions in the pandemic and shutdown in business in a way that people understand.
Again, we'll see how this one, what the final number is there, but I think it's pretty safe to say, barring something in these last few days that is just way out of context, the governor's race in Georgia, frankly, is over.
I want to turn to one now that is, I think in the end, is going to hold for the Republicans, but it is far closer than, frankly, it should be.
Mary Fallon, who was the governor of Oklahoma, won in 2014. She won by 15 points.
Kevin Stitt, who is the current governor of Oklahoma, won by 12 points just four years ago.
And now this race is a dead heat.
As far as polling goes, it's a dead heat.
This is also one of those races where the national environment Is, I think, affecting it inversely a little bit.
Kevin Stitt has been a great supporter of not only Republican conservative causes, but also criminal justice reform, making sure his state is getting the most bang for their buck as far as when it comes to punishing those who do wrong, but yet also making sure that There is a way for them to, you know, come back home, to get jobs, to stay out of jail, all things that conservatives should be, you know, about.
And it's really interesting in this race, you've had the Democrat, Joy Hoffmeister, who has been attacking Kevin Stitt for basically doing things that Democrats have talked about for a long time, and that is reintegration and And using criminal justice system to actually help people break the cycle of violence and break the cycle of, you know, pain in their own life.
This is very much of a disappointment in the idea that, you know, From Governor Stitt actually taking a stand on issues that matter.
Republicans have got to come together in this race.
I think they will.
Mark Wayne Mullen is on the Senate side here.
He's going to win and cruise to this election fairly easily.
James Lankford as well.
I think this will pull this into the Oklahoma governor's race and that you'll see Stitt win this one.
But frankly, it's not going to be, unfortunately, it's not going to be a race that should be a five to ten point win.
It looks like it's going to be a lot closer in this race.
But this is also going back, you know, for those who have wanted to see, you know, conservative governance that actually relates to people and relates to issues and broadening the tent.
You'll want to get involved, you know, in these last few days with the Governor Stitts' race because this is, again, I think something that we need to You know, Republicans actually be a part of in moving our party forward.
And Governor Stead has done that.
I got a foul on before him.
We need to continue to see this happening.
Right now, very close race.
You know, look, we've had some interesting results out of Oklahoma in the last few races, just in different races.
I don't think it's going to hit here in the governor's race, but it is something to keep a watch on.
So we'll look at this as we go forward.
The Kansas race is a pickup for Republicans here.
Laura Kelly, the Democrat, Derek Schmidt, who is the Republican.
This race is, you know, it's...
Not a lot has been polled here lately, but the race is very tight.
The conventional wisdom from some that I've talked to out there, Schmidt, is pulling ahead.
Kelly, again, dogged by some of the issues of pandemic and businesses and shutdowns.
Again, just in a right-center state, the Democrat here is, I think you're going to see a return to Republican, you know, And you're going to see this actually play out in a bigger way.
I think this will move toward the Republican actually getting a pickup in the state of Kansas.
Let's move to Michigan.
In the Michigan race here, this one has won Tudor Dixon against Gretchen Whitmer.
For those who have And believe in conservative principles of governance and ideas, Gretchen Whitmer needs to go.
This is, I mean, from the lockdowns, from the schools, from just the issues dealing in Michigan.
She has just been a disaster.
And the double standard, I mean, she joins her husband, joins Gavin Newsom and all, while what's good for you is not good for me.
And, you know, shutdowns and keeping people inside, but yet her own family going out and doing things.
And again, just Nothing but a very liberal mindset in the state of Michigan that is on its heels given the issues of crime, the issues of schools, and Whitmer's just outspoken, you know, really Move against parents and against, you know, really the parental involvement, whether it comes from the transgender issue to schools and what's being taught in curriculum.
I think Tudor Dixon provides a really stark contrast here.
This race is moving in Dixon's way, but it was one of those races that, you know, frankly, in August was a 17-point race and now is basically a dead heat.
This shows you what happens in races in which the ballot gets closer.
As the proponents get closer, people start paying attention and they really say, do I really want four more years of Gretchen Whitmer?
I've been in Michigan several times.
I can tell you Republicans are fired up.
They are very tired of the Whitmer regime up there and the Whitmer administration.
So again, Tudor Dixon, you know, getting money, getting endorsements, even picking up some major media endorsements up there.
You know, I'm holding up hope that this, from a conservative perspective, this will be a pickup for the Republicans in the state of Michigan.
If it did, again, sets a great A standard as we are moving forward in this race.
Let me move to another one.
I told you I'd get to this one.
We're going to only touch it quickly because it is over, bent over, not going to be an issue here.
Beto O'Rourke is going to lose to Greg Abbott.
When will the Democratic Party...
My only question about this race is when will the Democratic Party stop putting millions upon millions of dollars against Beto O'Rourke who has no hope of winning anything statewide in the state of Texas?
I... It boggles the mind.
It really does.
I mean, you really wonder, you know, what is the thinking here to continue to spend money on races that, frankly, you're not going to win.
I've used this example before.
Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams, I mean, look, up until just the last month and a half, that race, you know, everybody considered to be very, very close.
I understand the money that's been raised there.
But when you have a rubber...
Beto are raising millions upon millions of dollars.
When you have the opponent, Flowers, who is an opponent to Marjorie Taylor Greene, which has raised over $12 million, who has not a hope of winning.
I mean, if he gets beat by less than 35 points, it'll be shocking.
But yet, Democrats are funding money after money after money.
And it's just, you know, frankly hypocritical to me to see the Democrats, you know, complaining about money in races to Republicans when they are leading in so many areas of fundraising and money and dark money going into these races.
But I did want to just touch on this.
Maybe, you know, from a statewide perspective, it's probably the last time you'll see Beto on a...
Ballot in the state of Texas because, I mean, you just can't keep losing, you know, like you're doing and people are going to quit supporting you after a while.
Let's move to what I believe is going to be a definite pickup for a definite hold for Arizona and Republicans is Carrie Lake.
She is moving up in the polls while Hobbs is moving down.
I'm going to speak to this.
This one is a classic case of what I see wrong in politics, especially from the Democrats and how they've chosen to take and move their elections, you know, really away from You know, actually engaging and involving.
Katie Hobbs is hid like Joe Biden, so to speak, in the basement, not willing to debate Carrie Lake, trying to claim that, you know, Carrie Lake's views are radical and that they're bad and she wasn't going to give her a platform.
The problem is that nobody knows who Katie Hobbs is, and she's become the epitome of what is wrong with politics.
And when you do that in a year in which you have states like Arizona and others who are not in favor of the president, And President Biden, who seems to do the same thing.
It's just a continuation.
And frankly, she's facing those headwinds.
Kelly is doing debates, but Kelly is still facing those same headwinds.
This one is one I have been saying now for the last month.
As Carrie Lake goes, so goes Arizona.
She has been the engine driving these races, doing a phenomenal job in reaching people, getting press, and highlighting the message and not taking any bull.
She is definitely a no bull Canada out in Arizona.
And Lake is, I think, poised to win this.
I think she wins it.
She also, Masters also wins his race.
And this, again, is a hold seat for Republicans.
Going forward, it'll be interesting, again, to see how she governs in this race.
But right now, I think Carrie Lake has the edge.
She is trending ahead.
And Katie Hobbs is running a cowardly campaign.
And that's, frankly, all you can put to it.
I want to go to an interesting one right now.
And this is the Drazen-Kotek-Johnson governor's race in Oregon.
I never would have thought that I would have been able to sit here and tell you this late into, you know, a week or so before the election, that the governor's race in Oregon is actually in play.
Latest polling has the race, you know, in Drazen's favor, up by two.
Johnson is an independent, but a Democrat in this race who is taking votes away from Kodak.
Johnson is the...
Middle-of-the-road, sensible, if you would, common-sense Democrat approach in this race, and she is legitimately taking votes away from Kotech, who has become just a pariah of many in the state of Oregon.
For the extremist views that she has had, especially concerning the pandemic, the shutting down of the state, businesses, all of these flowing together.
And then also there's a big issue with drugs.
They've legalized drugs.
They did not follow through with the quote, which is a bad idea to start with.
Let's just put that out there to legalize hard drugs.
But at the same point in time, You also were supposed to be dumping millions upon millions of dollars into rehab facilities and others to help people who were addicted.
And that just never came through.
And in looking at this, this is the problem in Oregon, in a state in which crime, inflation, cost of living is such a problem.
And just to throw this in there, one of the issues that you're looking at in this race is it is so bad that Half of the state, roughly, has ballot referendums to be annexed by Idaho.
I mean, this shows a state in turmoil.
If the Democrat hangs on here, it will be a very slim margin and also very disappointing for many, many, many folks in Idaho.
The state of Oregon is such a beautiful country.
It's such a beautiful part of the world and has such a just backwards, you know, view right now of its governance.
You know, Portland is a war zone.
It's not getting any better.
And you're seeing this spread to Eugene and other parts of the state.
And, you know, people are fed up with it.
So as you look at this race, you know, again, a year ago when I put this one in a race that I would have thought Republicans had a shot in.
No, I would not.
But they do not only have a shot, they can actually, I think, are going to come out and win this.
Let's switch to New Mexico.
This is the Ron Shetty-Luan Grisham race.
Luan Grisham.
Administration has been plagued with a lot of issues, a lot of problems.
This race is a...
Very close race.
Many believe this will be a hole.
Lujan Grisham could hold this.
But again, in light of everything going on here, in light of the headwinds that have been put forward by the Biden administration and the problems that we're seeing there, I'm not sure this is a complete slam to keep this in the Democratic column.
I think Roschetti has a very...
Real chance of getting this.
And in the last days, you know, this race has completely tightened up into the point where it is a margin of error.
It is not out of the process that this was a Republican governorship just, you know, eight years ago.
Lujan Grisham won it in 18. And, you know, it's had issues in this race.
So I put this one on your map.
If you want on your scorecard for the night of the election, you may want to follow what is going on in New Mexico.
Let's move to New York.
New York is going to hit these.
Lee Zeldin has run an absolutely magnificent campaign against us.
You know, you really put it up there to who is the absolute from a Conservative perspective, who are the worst governors in the country?
And Kathy Hochul, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom, and Kotech from out in Oregon have to be up there in the just absolute pinnacle of bad when it comes to freedom, when it comes to, you know, actually, you know, helping their states with business and public safety.
Kathy Hochul is just bad, and Lee Zeldin has done a very disciplined race talking about the economy, talking about crime, I have to travel to New York a good bit.
And it's not like it used to be.
I used to love to travel to New York to be, you know, whether it be going to Fox or to, you know, to Newsmax, all these and meeting with people.
And now you just it's just a different world.
I mean, crime is a problem.
And Kathy Hochul, just in the recent debate, actually said, You know, why are you so concerned about crime?
I mean, she just summed up the entire problem with her administration and just the backwardness of her administration.
So, you know, folks, look, this New York race is really determinant of what we're seeing across the country, especially in many of these governor's races that are going to come down to the wire.
Lee Zeldin's made it very clear that, you know, he is, you know, Going to look out for the people of New York.
He's going to put their business back first.
He's going to get people to where they can actually come to the city and feel safe.
And also let their first responders and Others know that they are supported, whereas Kathy Hochul has not done that at all.
So again, I'm hoping and hoping and hoping for Lee Zeldin to pull this race off.
It has gotten very close here in the last little bit.
Lee Zeldin even pulling ahead in a couple of polls.
We'll just have to, you know, to wait and see how this race goes.
But I'm very hopeful here.
Pennsylvania is Mastriano-Shapiro race.
This is, you know, look...
By all traditional measures, Shapiro is going to win this one going away.
The only take I have of this is Mastriano does have a very strong, you know, grassroots support, grassroots base, typically not what you depend on to win We're good to
go.
than some have expected as we go forward.
Last race I'm gonna talk about in the governor's side here is the DeSantis-Chris race.
Again, not talking about this because there's any doubt on who is going to win, but this is a race in which The race is over.
And it just shows that Asantis, and coming out of this hurricane down here in Florida, which he has done a really good job coordinating with the federal government, with the state worker, to help out in some just tragic devastation in Southwest Florida.
Chris, in the debate the other night, just came across what you would expect It has become, unfortunately, the caricature, and that is just, you know, a little bit old, out of touch, ideas that are wrong, very much of a politician who's willing to even switch parties to maintain some sort of semblance of power.
And people remember, you know, when he was governor.
So, I mean, this is just a remembrance here.
Look, DeSantis won in a squeaker.
In 2018. He's not going to win in a squeaker this time.
He's going to win in a large way.
I would be shocked if this is under 12 points in this race.
So, you know, look, this just shows you the kind of headwinds that, and also the changing dynamics in some of these states, such as Florida, who in Ohio, the line is going to win up there.
The Republican is going to win easily.
These are the states that, you know, 20 years ago were the very center, epicenter of, you know, close elections.
Not anymore.
These states have went center-right and went a little bit further.
So again, as you look at these races going forward, I think you're just going to realize that it's a matter of turnout, it's a matter of getting out, it's a matter of being a part of these situations we go forward.
So that's the governor's races.
We've done the Senate.
We've done the governor's.
We'll be back and we're going to get some more of these races as we go because we're going to look at the House, what it means for the House to turn Republican, which I'm 99% sure that this is going to happen.
It's just a matter of how much.
So thanks for being a part of the Doug Collins podcast.
We'll see you again soon.
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