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Oct. 21, 2022 - Doug Collins Podcast
28:27
Why tell the Lie when the Truth works better Part 2
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You want to listen to a podcast?
By who?
Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
How is it?
The greatest thing I have ever heard in my whole life.
I could not believe my ears.
This house, wherever the rules are disregarded, chaos and mob rule.
It has been said today, where is bravery?
I'll tell you where bravery is found and courage is found.
It's found in this minority who has lived through the last year of nothing but rules being broken, people being put down, questions not being answered, and this majority say, be damned with anything else.
We're going to impeach and do whatever we want to do.
Why?
Because we won an election.
I guarantee you, one day you'll be back in the minority and it ain't gonna be that fun.
Hey everybody, Doug Collins.
Welcome back to the podcast.
Glad to have you with us.
Just recently we did a podcast on, you know, basically the whole premise was, you know, the reason why is it right now that it seems that, you know, that we see in so many political campaigns that the lie is better than in telling a lot when the truth is just as good.
It was amazing.
We just got that podcast out, had a lot of comments.
DougCollinsPodcast.com had some, many of you went to the website, sent me an email.
I mean, it's just, we're seeing it more and more and more.
What really was surprising to me is when we put the podcast out, I said, well, you know, this is one In which, you know, we'll probably talk about some more as it goes on.
But I didn't expect it to be as quickly and didn't get the reaction that I got.
So here is, I'm going to spend a little bit of this podcast on a couple of things.
They're just sort of, you know, my hot buttons, I guess, if you put it.
And the hot buttons are just things that I'm looking around saying, huh, you know, where are we at right now?
So, you know, let's start off, though, with this back to this topic of When you're telling the spin or the lie instead of just letting the truth speak for itself.
Now, the first one is coming today.
And this one got me because I shared with you last week, I think, or last time on the podcast, was the episode when the poll came back in Atlanta and Stacey Abrams was down 10 to Brian Kemp in the poll.
The AJC commissioned, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution commissioned this poll.
And then their online banner, their editorial banner was, the good news for Stacey Abrams and a bad poll.
And if you just looked at it, just taking headlines, you'd say, hey, well, there's good news for Stacey Abrams.
If you're an Abrams supporter, this must be good, even in a quote, bad poll.
You know, maybe she's ahead, but not as much as she's ahead.
You know, however you want to interpret that.
When the reality was, she was down 10%.
It's the spin aspect of this.
Then we get into something, and I want to spend just a few minutes on this, because it's back again to the media seemingly covering for Democrats in this election cycle.
And this is stuff that you normally never see.
You would not expect a media conglomerate such as AJC, who I've known their editorial board for a long time.
I've known their reporters.
I still talk to them occasionally.
You know, just seemingly so off base with a headline.
And then you get Politico.
And specifically, this was in the Politico playbook PM, their afternoon edition, just the other day.
And this was the one that, I first read it and I'm looking at it like, okay, you know, let me just see what this is.
The headline caught my attention.
And it said, the poll that stirred the pot.
So I said, well, let's take a look at it and see what we're talking about.
And here's what it was.
And what they're reporting on was the New York Times-Siena College poll That came out, just came out, that said the GOP was just three weeks away from Election Day, and then they said this.
They said the top line is bad enough for Dems.
Republicans have flipped the generic congressional ballot in their favor and now lead Democrats 49 to 45%.
In September, the same New York Times sent a poll had the Democrats holding a one-point advantage.
So really what we're seeing here is, and this is a significant change, In what many, about a month ago, were saying, well, the Democrats have a, you know, they're going to not only keep the Senate, but maybe gain seats, and that the House is looking more and more iffy, that the Republicans are going to win it or not.
I mean, you had all these glowing stories coming out of Washington, D.C. about You know, who's going to win?
And then Democrats are going to be okay.
And, you know, and there was this sort of self-therapy group, it seemed like, among the Washington inside the Beltway crowd, especially the media, on the aspect and chances in this election cycle.
So when you see this happen, You know, that's a significant difference.
Now, look, for the podcast listeners, and if you're new to the Doug Collins podcast, I hope you'll subscribe.
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We want you to be a regular listener.
We've had John McLaughlin.
We've had others who've really, pollsters who've dived into what polling actually is and how you use it and how it can be used and what you take from it.
The best example for polling and what it means is, though, is one that my former guy that used to work with me, and we still talk a lot together on consulting campaigns, and that was he just simply laid it out.
A poll is simply a snapshot in time.
That's all it is.
And I don't care what you look for.
Can you look for patterns?
Can you look for other things?
Yes.
It's just like, you know, it's like a farmer going out in the field and he notices that the animals are acting a little differently or the trees are acting a little differently.
I mean, history, okay, Tells him or her that they're looking at this field.
This is what's going to happen.
We're going to get cooler earlier.
It's going to be warmer later.
A lot of things.
Why?
Not because they simply look at one second in time and say, okay, this looks like we're going to.
But no, they can then take that second in time and compare it to everything that's gone before.
We do this all the time.
Polling is simply that way.
Polling simply gives you that snapshot of that day, that time, or those few days in that time, and says, okay, here's what it says at this moment.
And then it also is determined by who you ask, what time you ask, how you ask them, cell phone, non-cell phone.
Again, if you're seeing a poll today out, one of the things I would ask on the cross tabs, which is the individual numbers under it, is how it was done.
Not just registered voters or likely voters, but are they actually calling cell phones?
Or was this an internet poll where they actually just said, you know, hey, click on the internet poll, answer yes or no.
Was it a poll that was conducted entirely by an email?
Was it a SurveyMonkey poll or was it something that, you know, these kind of polls that just do simply, you know, they give you a good snapshot, but their ability to just not interact with a live person.
On the other end, you know, text polls, you know, whatever it is.
All this needs to be taken into account because, and you say, well, maybe you're scratching your head saying, well, why does that matter?
Well, if you're doing a poll only on landlines, then you're only probably going to get a demographic that's above 40 years old.
Possibly even as high as 45, 50 years old, because landlines are just not as prevalent for people under the age of 40. They don't have them.
And frankly, even in my household, and I'm 56, we would not have a landline was it not for having to have one for my daughter in her elevator chair and everything else.
So again, these are the things you have to look for in a poll.
I lay that foundation to say, you know, the way you report polling is, okay, this month, Democrats look to have fell back.
Republicans look to have jumped forward.
You might maybe ask, well, why would that be?
Maybe they're resonating better on gas prices going back up.
Inflation, the economy is getting more prevalent as we get closer to the election.
But that's not what Politico did.
Politico then goes into a very lengthy critique of this poll.
Now, I didn't see a big critique of this poll last month when the Democrats were up one.
They didn't go into this long, in-depth saying, well, this is terrible.
You know, Democrats are only one points up.
It should be four points up.
You know, nothing.
But here's what they go on.
Here's an interesting part, and this is where it just gets absolutely ridiculous.
After they talk about this, then they say in a bold headline, they say some nuance.
In this poll, the exact unrounded figures are 48.51, rounding to 49, and 45.47, rounding to 45.
That's a three-point lead, writes New York Times Nate Cohen, in a useful companion piece.
Now...
Again, without comment.
I'm just not going to.
And I could comment on that there, but I'm going to hold off for the next paragraph because it gets worse.
Here they say, and if you really want to walk out, I mean, you can't make this up.
The two rounding errors.
Okay, wait, wait, wait.
Let's stop right here.
Rounding errors?
How is this a rounding error?
A fifth grade math teacher would look at this and say, no, it's above 50%, you round up.
Below 50%, you round down.
How is that a rounding error?
This is the subtleness and the overtness of this blatant Democrat spin.
I mean, it's just ridiculous.
The two rounding errors add up to an even larger disparity between the reported and actual results.
When it comes to the difference between the likely and registered voters, the rounded result makes it seem to be a four-point gap.
In reality, the difference is a 2.5 gap.
Okay, anybody want to take a calculator and figure that one out?
Or maybe a chart to go through the fact that they mentioned likely and registered voters?
They didn't mention that in the other previous...
When you're down to parsing numbers in a poll like this, it means that you are losing and you don't understand why and you're lashing out.
That's basically what we're seeing here.
Now, they go on in this to really get even further, but the crosstabs really cause a stir, showing substantial shifts in the political preferences among independent women voters.
Now they're starting to then knock this down yourself.
It says in September they favored Democrats by 14, now independent women backed Republicans by 18, a striking And how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on a threat the Republicans pose to abortion rights.
Yet there's reason to be skeptical about the sweeping takeaways from these crosstabs.
Generally a little problematic to talk about a 32-point shift in voting intentions within a group whose sample size gives you a margin of error of almost 20 points for that margin.
Okay, now again, we're down to breaking it down into these minute subgroups.
And then trying to give you a reason.
Okay?
Not as you've heard from pollsters who've been on my podcast before.
That's not really how you look at this.
Again, the sampling size.
If you really wanted to sample and understand it, was there a huge shift between independent women in this who are backing Democrats, now backing Republicans?
Then you would basically target or you would poll independent women And then ask them, you know, about these questions.
Then you would actually see.
And then we'd have a sample size of 200 or 300 instead of a sample size of a lot smaller.
You know, again, it is, they make another one.
The economist, G. Elliott Morris, notes about the poll that the Republicans show winning 18% of black voters and That sample size amounted to just 77 people.
Again, it wasn't a matter of just 77 people maybe last month in that poll, but this month it matters because they don't like the position of the polling.
Then he goes, so even though economic concerns, they start to point out, you know, that economic concerns are the biggest.
It's left since July to 44% from 36%, far higher than any other issue for reference.
I love how they add it.
The next closest issues are state of democracy, 8% and abortion and immigration, 5%.
You know, it's just really interesting here.
Not that this poll is the end-all beat-all.
Or not that it's going to say for sure that now Republicans are going to take 15 more seats.
Does it indicate a shift in possible preference?
Yes.
Does it indicate on that polling time frame that this same sort of sampling that for the last couple months have shown Democrats ahead in the generic ballot, which is what this is.
By the way, they're not polling...
A Republican representative name with a name or a Democrat representative with a name.
They're just simply polling, you know, would you vote for Democrat?
Would you vote for Republican?
What do you feel more comfortable with?
So this is the kind of thing that is just really, when you look at this, I mean, again, why not just, I mean, what is the problem here?
We're just pointing out saying, hey, there's been a shift in the poll.
There seems to be some irregularity in the numbers.
We'll see how the election plays out in the next three weeks.
Instead, the press, who are supposed to be keeping a What would be an objective point of view here, again, cross the line and don't do that.
And they spend a great deal of a newsletter trying to convince others of like-minded possibly that, hey, this is okay.
Don't go panicking.
This poll has problems.
Although again, it's funny to me that you don't see the same nitpicking on the polling that you see When it was for Democrats instead of against Democrats.
Again, just again, when the truth would be better here, people would understand it better and say, hey, look, the races are tightening.
You need to get out there.
If you thought the Democrats were going to be able to survive this and you don't want that to happen, then you better start campaigning better.
You better start helping your candidates.
You know, do whatever.
But instead, trying to make a mockery of a poll that they all use and they've all been pointing at for the longest time to say Democrats were doing better than Republicans.
Again, it just doesn't fly.
And it goes back to another point of this, and we've mentioned the White House press office many times, Jean-Pierre.
She was asked a question, the press secretary, about the Inflation Reduction Act.
And she finally has sort of admitted that it's not going to reduce inflation.
After saying for so long that it is and reading talking points and all the things we did, all but come to this conversation.
And when asked the question about it, I said, well, wait till next year.
Early next year, we'll hopefully see some results.
OK, that's not what they've been saying, you know, for the longest time.
And I get political spin.
You know, you can email me if you want to.
But I mean, look, I get political spin.
But being honest about things is also important because maybe some of this very reason you're seeing the polls shift back is that they were buying the spin back in August that, hey, the Inflation Reduction Act is going to take down gas prices, take down food costs, take down all this, and it hasn't happened.
We've still had 8-plus percent of inflation year over year, and people are starting to say, wait, they lied to us.
Instead, wouldn't it have been just easier for the Democrats to say, hey, look, we put this in place.
It's going to take a little while to get here.
Bear with us.
We're going to get this under control.
Bear with us.
You know, this is what happens when you make promises.
Republicans and Democrats, you can't make promises you can't keep.
And this has been my concern in this election going forward, that we really, you know, from a conservative perspective, you know, don't make promises you can't keep.
Don't tell people things that you're going to do that have no hope of getting done.
And Democrats now, I think, are putting themselves in this position.
So again, here we are back at the statement of telling the stories, telling the spin, telling the lies, if you would, that when the truth would just do just as good.
Moving on.
Refusals to debate.
Arizona right now has a very heated gubernatorial race between Hobbs and Lake down in Arizona.
It is amazing to me.
That the Democratic candidate will not debate.
And in looking at this, I'm just going to say this from a state here for a moment as this podcast is dealing with just some random issues.
Republicans or Democrats in bigger races have to debate.
It's a disservice.
I mean, we're seeing this in Pennsylvania, where they're going to possibly get to a debate at some point between Fetterman and Oz, but it has had to be redone and put off because of Fetterman's medical issues that he is having trouble processing and hearing.
Those are things that have delayed this debate.
But at a certain point in time, if you're going to be, especially in a governor or a senator or a congressman, the debate, especially if it's a contested race.
Now, look, I get it.
I've been there.
If you're in a D45 district and a Republican can never win, you know, look, you don't really expect the Democrat to ever debate, and the opposite is the same.
If in a Republican district, in an R30-something district, you don't expect the Democrat, the Republican to debate the Democrat.
It's just, frankly, it's not going to produce anything, and it's not going to be helpful if the incumbent will typically just, you know, go campaign and continue that process.
They still need to be eligible to be met up with voters, But our debate's just not going to be happening.
But if in any closer race, they need to debate.
And in Arizona, this is becoming more and more of a process because it's showing that the candidate for the Democratic Party is scared of Carrie Lane.
She doesn't want to debate.
And she can use every excuse in the world.
She can say, I don't like what she's, you know, Carrie Lake's denying the election results or she's done this or she's done that.
What it basically says to the voters of Arizona, if when the going gets tough, I'm going to hide.
That's what Hobbs' campaign is saying.
That's what the Democrats' campaign is saying.
Look, if it's difficult or I don't want to deal with it, then I'm just going to hide from the voters in Arizona.
Folks, that's just not right.
And I'm glad to see down here in Georgia, Walker's campaign agreed to a debate.
They had a debate the other night with Raphael Warnock.
I think that was needed in Warnock.
And Walker debated.
Walker did great.
He performed well.
Warnock, frankly, performed okay, I guess, but not what you would have expected.
So, again, this is what, you know, people want to see candidates discuss real issues.
And sometimes in these races, especially if they're close races, especially for highest races coming about, the race needs to, you know, be...
In such a way that People can hear what a person who wants to lead a state is going to say.
Kara Lake's right.
She's calling this out.
She's saying that it's not right.
Then you had the Arizona Public Broadcasting out there after they've always done a debate in all the governor's races in the years before.
When Hobbs County said they were not going to debate, they'd offered her a time, 30 minutes to an hour, of just an interview.
I mean, that's, again, when did PBS decide to start picking winners and losers?
When did PBS decide to go back on the standard and say, well, we wanted a debate, but we can't get a debate, so we'll just do an interview.
You can do an interview any time.
This is not what I think the people of Arizona deserve.
It's not what the people of other states deserve.
And my two cents worth is if you're in a contested race and you're wanting to be the leader of a state, then you ought to be willing to stand on a stage and debate.
You ought to be willing to stand up there.
And if Hobbes is so upset at Carrier Lake, then she has every opportunity to stand on that stage and debate Carrier Lake and tell Carrier Lake why she's wrong.
The problem is she don't want to do it.
That's wrong again.
As we go random thoughts today, when the truth is better to get up and debate and do your best, let the people see what you believe and why you believe it, and defend those in an adversarial system, that's when you can be shown to have true leadership.
Leadership is not running away, and that's exactly what they're doing in Arizona.
One of the things that I have seen happen in the previous years coming along is this idea, and really a concerning idea, that you have A more and more what I'll call a disconnect from reality when it comes to social interaction.
And one of the worst things of social interaction that I have seen is the disconnect from people and young people in particular not being able to You know, how they can result in feelings, how they can, you know, put stuff together, you know, how they can, you know, do, you know, just normal conversations, things that we grew up, you know, learning when you were in school.
And the latest app, and there's apps all over the place.
I mean, we've had Facebook craze, we've had the Twitter phase, you've had Snapchat, you've had Instagram, you've had everything, which again, It is amazing that, you know, you have disconnect from so-called friends, but you don't know them.
You don't have, you know, you don't have personal interaction.
The latest app, one called Gas, is out there.
And the reason I bring this up is not, I mean, if people want to use this, fine, I get it.
But this Gas app is really popular now among high schools, and you can actually put in your high school.
You can, and it's only a, it's built to be a positive, uplifting thing.
So, like, who is the Who's the smartest person you know?
Who's the prettiest person?
The best looking?
Anyway, it's supposed to be a superlative to build people up.
Because we've seen, look, Instagram, Facebook, all these others are very toxic environments for teenagers.
We get that.
But it has been.
Twitter has been Forever because it gives the keyboard courage folks out there, the ones who would rather sit in front of the keyboard and type up things to send to people, sometimes anonymously to make themselves feel better, is the things that are actually destroying the interaction and frankly in turn destroying the institutions that we know from politics to religion to communities because people don't know how to actually deal with conflict.
They would rather get on a computer and type something nasty about somebody instead of actually having to confront that person and solve the problem.
GAS is trying to overcome that, giving them a platform in which they're positively encouraging people.
Here's my problem.
If we continue down this path, and I'm not sure how you get out of it, folks.
I'm really not.
I'm 56. I don't get this.
I mean, back in my day, if you wanted to ask, you know, if you were in high school and you wanted to ask somebody out, you know, you'd send them a note or you'd see them at their locker.
You know, hey, do you like me?
Check yes or no.
You know, if you had a problem with somebody, you know, you either had to pick up the phone or you had to actually see them or you just avoided it one way or the other.
I mean, it's just the way it was.
Maybe this app is good and it reaffirms and you're trying to give kudos or whatever to folks to, hey, attaboys, that you're doing great, I think the world of you kind of thing.
Okay, that's fine, but couldn't we just go back to just telling people?
Hey, I appreciate you.
You're a friend.
Hey, you've done a great job with that project.
You're amazing.
You know, again, we're losing more and more of what I call the social dynamic, you know, and even through podcasts.
I mean, I'm trying to recreate a podcast that actually, you know, we're talking about, but, you know, it's not as personal as somebody, a friend or somebody you just got to know, having a cup of coffee, having a glass of tea, whatever you want to do, and sit down and getting to know people.
This is a concern that I have.
And so, look, I'm glad this app's out there, but I'm also concerned that, again, are we beginning more and more to where we're having to treat our teenagers and our young people as if we have to entertain them 24-7?
We have to give them something to make them feel accepted and welcome?
I mean, where are we headed with this?
To where social interaction has become the abnormal in person or in very tangible ways in which the abstract is becoming the norm.
I think this is why we're seeing so much problems we're seeing in politics.
I see this in social interaction.
I think it's the divisiveness in our country is that too many people don't have to actually answer for what they believe or what they say.
They don't have to give a defense for it, just like in governor's races and Senate races, where they don't debate.
They don't have to give answers to an answer from a component who believes entirely differently.
That is the way that we do it.
There's a scriptural admonition that iron sharpens iron.
It is only when we get out in the world and we have our views challenged, when we have our lives challenged, when we have the things that we hold near challenged, that we actually then begin to believe, do we really believe this or do we not believe this?
This is the problem that I see developing.
It's a problem that I'm going to talk about more here on the podcast, but I just wanted to throw it in today.
When we're talking about spin and telling the lies, when truth is just as better, this probably fits into that as well.
And the truth is, We need more social interaction.
We need more people to understand how you deal with people, how you compromise, how you make friends, how you handle situations, more than just getting on a social media app and typing something up.
Maybe I'm old.
Maybe I'm not.
Maybe this is the reality that we all need, that we need to understand each other on a much better level.
And that's it for the day on the Doug Collins Podcast.
Thanks for being a part.
We'll see you again soon.
We'll see you again soon.
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