We are less than 30 day from the election, lets look at the state of the races across the country!
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Georgia GOP Congressman Doug Collins.
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All right.
We're inside 30 days.
I haven't done this in a while on the podcast.
I want to do this today.
We're going to spend a few minutes going over the state of the races as I see them and as the polls are calling them and what I see playing out.
In races, not only for the U.S. House, but U.S. Senate.
We even touched a few governor's races as well.
We're going to do these sort of rapid fires, so if you're riding along with us, you're exercising today, maybe you're out for a run, you're on the treadmill, this will give you some fast pace, give you the top lines as we go through these different races.
Now, let's set the stage.
Remember, Most still believe, and I'm one who believes, the House will flip.
I don't see a scenario right now, quite frankly, in which the House doesn't flip.
You could be the pessimist from a Republican standpoint and say it's going to flip by one seat, or the ultimate optimist saying it's going to flip and Republicans are going to have 245 members at the end of this session.
I think it's very much in the middle of that.
Somewhere between 225-235 is where the number is going to fall for new members of the Republican side of the House, which is still significant in the historical preference.
But you're going to see this.
Nothing's changed.
Some of the suburban seats, Some of these races, I mean, the media's kicked into high gear when they really saw what was going on in these races.
You've seen a lot more inside the beltway stories about, oh, the Democrats have a 30% chance of keeping the House.
No, I really don't think they have a 30% chance of keeping the House.
I don't think they have a 30% chance of staying above 210 in the house.
I think that this is going to be a much harder lift, even though you had scenes like the New York 19. Again, going back on it just from an outside point of view looking in, I think part of the problem is that the...
Republicans didn't run, frankly, as good a campaign as they could have.
We avoided the issues of abortion.
We've treated it in a...
Republican candidates have treated it not in the best way possible.
And that has caused some gains for some Democrats.
It'll help some Democrats in suburban districts.
This may be a gift to Abigail Spamberger or some of the others in these rural kind of districts.
Haley Stevens up in Michigan, some others.
So we'll just have to...
We'll see how that goes.
But at the end of the day, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the House because, and frankly, that's about it, because the House is 10...
We've picked up seats, mitigated seats that were lost in Pennsylvania and other places, New York, in which Republicans have a distinct advantage, and I think you'll see that play out in just a few weeks here on election night.
Now, where the difference comes is in the...
Senate.
And now, I'll just be frank with you.
And if someone who watches this commentates on it, does a lot of media about this, is often asked about the state of these races in the House and the Senate.
It's become interesting to me that some of the players, at least some of the elected players and others, Democrats are simply playing for 50-50.
They want to keep it just as it is.
They gave up hope in some ways of Of truly flipping, or even if they flip one, they're afraid they'll lose another.
So they're just sort of playing for the jump ball.
They're playing for 50-50, keep Kamala Harris.
The vice president is deciding vote, which gives them the slim majority in the Senate.
But it also allows them to do what they've done so far, using reconciliation, judges, and other things to get their imprint on it.
Now, as we look at the landscape, there are several significant holds.
And I want to discuss this.
If you've never listened to my podcast before, I want you to know this.
There are significant holds.
What I mean by hold is these are Republican seats that they are up for election and they need to hold them.
In other words, Republicans need to hold the seat.
If the Democrat wins, it's a flip.
Just as there are flip seats for Republicans that they need to get to the 51 mark.
As we go.
So let's discuss the holds first.
So far the holds are interesting.
I do want to mention a couple of quick things that have came out in the last, you know, little bit of polling cycle here as we went through.
Number one, this is not a state that I don't think will...
We'll flip by any means, but it's interesting to me that Utah is being talked about a little bit, and the latest polling, which came out as of today, had Senator Mike Lee ahead of Evan McMullin, 42 to 37. That's a five-point lead.
What's interesting in this is that the...
Mitt Romney is not getting involved in this race.
He's not endorsing or helping Mike Lee.
That's an interesting...
Again, if you know Utah Republican politics, this is a little bit interesting as it goes forward.
I don't see this actually flipping or McMullen winning.
This just to me is frankly sort of surprising in a very conservative state like Utah.
Mike Lee has only a five-point lead.
Let's talk about one more non-factor race, I believe, but it is then becoming a little bit more interesting now that the NRSC and others have decided to put A Senate leadership fund is putting money into Colorado.
They're expanding the field out a little bit.
I think some of the issues in other states are causing some of this.
And when you look at Colorado Senate, this is the O'Day-Bennett race, Bennett the incumbent.
Bennett's only up six points in Colorado.
Six points statewide in Colorado is an interesting number, considering O'Day is not a...
You know, a nationally known name, has fallen under the radar, has specifically run a more moderate Republican campaign in the state of Colorado, not, you know, aligned with the former president.
And this is, you know, Donald Trump.
So again, an interesting number to be only up by six in that race.
Now, let's take it to the races that are the whole seats that I spoke of.
Those are Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Missouri.
Missouri is pretty much over.
Schmidt is going to win that one.
He'll win it by double digits.
The seat in Missouri is safe.
Take it off the map.
You're not going to have to worry about that one.
After the primary and everything that went on there, that seat became safe, and Republicans don't have to worry about spending resources there.
Let's go to Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is another interesting state because you have two-term Senator Ron Johnson against Mandela Barnes, who has run a very liberal race.
This is someone who very adamantly, not part of the folks who said we'd never defund police.
He actually did very much advocate of defunding police.
This has become very much of a law and order kind of race.
And he says that he never did, but yet...
The video, and this is from, you know, mainstream media sources saying, look, your videos, your social media say differently.
Interestingly enough here, this still is within the margin of error.
It doesn't surprise us a lot.
Wisconsin has been trending over the last few years to be a very purple state, although Republicans control most of the congressional delegation there.
It's a classic story that you're seeing in many of the states in which you have the rural areas and some suburban areas being Republican, urban areas being heavily Democratic.
The interesting corollary to this race in Wisconsin is the governor's race there.
Tony Evers, current governor, Democrat, who, you know, from a conservative perspective, has done an absolutely horrific job, is in a neck and neck race.
In fact, the Democrat there is, Evers is losing about a point or two to the Republican candidate in the race.
So these races are very close, but this is a hold seat.
So Johnson needs to win it.
If Republicans have any desire, any hope of winning back the Senate, they need to hold this seat because a loss here would mean that they would have to win somewhere else.
So you'd have to win one to neutralize it, two to actually then gain ground.
So, you know, when you look at Wisconsin, don't let this one go off the map because it is within the margin of error.
The next one, Ohio.
Let's just go across the country.
Ohio is running the next Senate race that is a hold seat.
This one was a very, if you remember back...
Very tight primary race.
J.D. Vance comes out of it with President Trump's support, Donald Jr.'s support.
He was a very well-known figure for riding the Hillbilly Elegy and other things.
He's the Republican nominee against Tim Ryan, a 20-year Congressional House member from Ohio.
Probably in Ohio, the best Democrat that they could have picked would have been Ryan.
And this race has Vance up, too.
It's been pretty consistent, Vance two to four.
In the trends of what's happening in Ohio over the past few years, this does look now that the numbers tend to be hardening.
Ryan has run a very moderate campaign here.
He's run a very campaign that is not reflective of the national democratic strategy of the more liberal campaigns.
So I think this will stay close as far as polling, margin of error.
But at the end of the day, Vance, I think, holds his seat.
Let's move on to Pennsylvania.
Much different story in Pennsylvania.
This is also, frankly, one that I personally just don't understand.
And part of this goes to what I've seen in Republicans in this cycle and how they're handling the primaries that were very contentious in many states.
Ohio, as I just said, had a very contentious primary.
You had a lot of good candidates.
Vance came out on top.
There was a lot of frustrated Republicans who think that Vance was not the best candidate for Republicans to put forward.
However, he did win.
It's the same true here in Ohio.
The Pennsylvania Senate seat, which Dr. Oz, Matt McOz, came from a field in which he was not the favorite of the more conservative Republicans in the party in Pennsylvania.
And, you know, what has happened is that there has just been...
He's not seemed to gain traction enough to put him in a much closer format with where he should be, and that is in...
I think definitely should be beating Fetterman in this race.
Now, there's other issues that are developing here, but right now, just as an average polling, you're getting about 3%, almost 4% Fetterman, and that's been consistent.
You know, through the summer.
Okay, it's been consistent.
It's actually closed up the gap here in the last month and gotten down to the 3 or 4%, which puts it within the margin of error for the most part.
But what we're seeing here, and I think the way that Republicans are going to have to try and keep this seat, is the folks who voted for...
McCormick and also voted for Barnett have got to get on the Oz bandwagon.
And maybe they're not polling.
Maybe they're not answering the polls.
Maybe they're still mad.
But at the end of the day, they've got, you know, if you're a Republican wanting to keep or gain control of the Senate, this is a whole seat you gotta have.
On another note, it's also a whole seat you need to have because John Fetterman is one of the biggest liberal candidates in these seats to take a Republican seat that we've seen and is also suffering from serious medical conditions that have kept him off the campaign trail for the most of this campaign season.
Again, I think it's very concerning that it now appears that his campaign was not forthright.
Before the primary, when this stroke actually happened, they've been avoiding these questions and saying everything's okay, but yet when Fetterman comes out for interviews or public events, you can tell that there's still speech issues, there's still cognitive issues that he's working on.
And I wish him success in his health.
I do not wish him success in winning the Senate seat.
I don't think he's ready for it.
And even if he, quote, was, you know, physically, mentally healthy and physically ready to run this race, his ideas are too liberal for the United States Senate and especially from Pennsylvania.
But you're still seeing him win in this race, and I think some of that is a fallout from the primary cycle with Dr. Oz, in which you had questions of, is he conservative enough for many, many people in Pennsylvania?
And in doing so, maybe turn some of our Republican voters off to go back out.
They have, you know, a little under 30 days now to go out and fix that.
They don't fix that.
This could be one of the biggest disappointments in the cycle.
Now, Dr. Oz, supported heavily by Donald Trump, supported heavily by the delegation, congressional delegation and others in Pennsylvania, you know, Again, it's bound to turn out now.
So we need to see how this is going to play out.
But I'm putting this on the radar.
If you're a Republican in a state that either doesn't have big races this cycle or is sort of settled in, and you've got time or effort and money to put into it, Pennsylvania is one of those seats in which I would encourage you to go do so.
Again, we lose here.
You've got to take two to gain back the Senate, and you have to have one minimum to offset it to keep it at 50-50.
All right.
Moving down the map a little bit.
North Carolina.
This has become the one, and I think I've said it here on the podcast, I've definitely said it in radio show and other news outlets, that North Carolina for me was, and I said this back in July and August, I said when the polling starts to come in and this Beasley-Budd race down in North Carolina, it's going to be far closer than anybody imagines.
It's going to be very close and it's going to be definitely the margin of error and people are just going to fly under the radar and people are going to say, oh my, what's happening?
Well, That's exactly what's happening right now.
This race in North Carolina is, Bud is up by one, a little over one.
Most of the polling have had this thing trending three to one to a tie here over the last month.
Beasley, Sherry Beasley, actually, this is one thing I wanted to emphasize.
She just announced her fundraising total at $13.3 million.
That's number four in the country of these other Senate races that I've been talking about.
That's a lot of money in North Carolina media markets.
It's a lot of money to make up.
Bud has raised money, but not to that level.
Again, folks, this is a flippable seat for Democrats if they're wanting to flip this.
Bud has ran a solid campaign throughout this cycle.
He's been a little quiet.
It's not been a flashy race by any means.
They have just had their, I think, one and only debate.
This one is going to be a time in which Republicans have got to come out.
It's also another race in which Republicans struggled Had to deal with a primary, which again, that's part of life.
That's part of what should be in electoral politics, not upset that there was a primary, but you had folks who like Mark Walker and others who, you know, now Their people have to get behind Ted Budd or Sherry Beasley will have the possibility of flipping this seat.
This is, again, the one that was a couple months ago off the radar.
Many will tell you that this is an okay seat.
I still believe Ted Budd is going to win this seat, but I just can't just tell you and blow sunshine and say, hey, it's going to be done without any problems.
We're going to have to work at it in North Carolina, and that's going to be the case as we go forward.
If we work at it, this seat is definitely savable, and this seat can be used as a jumping point to get to the 51 because you don't have to overcome a loss here.
You get to the 51. Now, if you looked at the Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, the five hole seats, if you were.
These are the tougher hole seats.
I think you can take three of those Relatively off the table right now.
That would be Missouri.
I believe Wisconsin will go to Johnson, and I believe that Vance is going to win Ohio.
It puts the Fetterman-Oz race and the Beasley-Budd race at the forefront of concern for Republican holds.
Now, how's that going to play out?
I don't know.
I mean, again, I think part of this is the primary process.
Part of this is the money disparity that is between Senate candidates and Democrat Senate candidates and Republican Senate candidates.
We're seeing this across the board.
We're seeing a lot in House races.
I mean, before I get to the three or four Republican flips that we're trying to get here in the Senate, I just have to say, folks, Democrats are spending more money than we've seen in many of these races in a long while.
And you're seeing unelectable candidates, such as candidates running in the 14th District of Georgia running against Marjorie Taylor Greene, who have raised over $10 million and do not stand an iota's chance of winning.
It just boggles the mind.
I mean, I've been in politics long enough to where if you struggle to raise money, you know, people were not going to come to your defense, and also you were not going to be able to raise money to mount a sufficient campaign.
Now you have $10 million going into a race in which Democrats pretty much 99%.
It's like those Saturday football games between, you know, Alabama and FCS school, or Georgia and FCS school, where it's 99.9%.
You're not going to win this game, but that 0.1%, Somehow is raising $10 million in a Georgia 14 seat that is just ludicrous.
But the money differential is making a difference here.
I think it's what's keeping Beasley in it.
I think it's what's keeping several of these others in it.
Definitely Tim Ryan up in Ohio as we go forward.
Now, let's take a look at a couple of seats out there that some have said have a possibility.
Look, Florida is tightening up, and especially with the hurricane, I'm sure that will affect it a little bit.
But that race is Marco Rubio's.
I think Val Demings will lose this one.
You got Washington State.
Again, it's a...
Patty Murray is up 8%, but if you ever went to Tiffany Smiley's website, if you've ever listened to Tiffany Smiley, she's a great candidate, Republican candidate, maybe running in a very tough area in a blue state such as Washington State with Seattle, Tacoma area and surrounding.
But, I mean, to be close here, that's...
Saying something, and that number has come down since the, sort of, in some polls, 1st of September, to make this race much closer.
So let's just continue to watch this race.
But, you know, Tiffany Smiley, from a Republican standpoint, it'd be nice to see some more money come into that race.
You know, if anything, to make Patty Murray have to spend some more money to try and keep that seat.
Then we're going to get into really the flippables, and this is from the Republican taking a Democrat seat.
Right now, A little bit of a surprise if you've followed politics for years.
This one will surprise you that since really the mid, since August timeframe, after the primaries, Adam Laxalt has solidified a campaign that has consistently run two to four points ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat incumbent in this race.
A lot of pundits are beginning to say this is a loss, that Laxalt is going to take this race.
Cortez Masto will not win this.
And, you know, if that be true, then that is one leg of the stool, so to speak, for Republicans to get back to, you know, in power in Washington, D.C. If they do so, it's going to come on the power of an Adam Laxalt in Nevada, where you have Hispanic voters, you have newer voters who were affected greatly by the pandemic's economic impact.
Now, is abortion and some of the social issues playing a part here?
Yes, they are.
But Nevada is the perfect storm of needing the service industries, the casino industries, the tourism industry.
This all got hammered under Democratic leadership as far as shutdowns and not being able to open back up.
This is why I think this race is unique and why Laxalt has a distinct advantage here.
And I think there's even a possibility of the governor's race here as well.
That brings us to Arizona.
And Arizona, between Mark Kelly, Blake Masters, Masters needs help.
I mean, he needs more money.
I know some is being filtered in now by Peter Thiel and others.
But Kelly has run, since the 1st of September, run from a 1 to about a 6, 7...
Lead here.
Again, Republican area in most of the state of Arizona, you would think this would be a close race.
We've seen that in the special election for John McCain's seat.
We saw it in the last cycle.
A lot of turnover, a lot of turmoil, though, about the last season in 2020. We'll see if that has a hangover effect in this race.
Now, I want to pick up The governor's race in Arizona while we're here too, because this one is an important one in which Carrie Lake is running against Katie Hobbs.
If you saw both of them on the Sunday shows this past week, Katie Hobbs was avoiding abortion questions.
She was avoiding really immigration questions.
She did not come across in very clear answers.
Why is Carrie Lake, who has been a television news anchor and run a very bold, very forthright campaign, is putting out answers I think that people are picking up?
Lake is up in this race, and that has been trending this month.
You have a few polls that put Hobbs up, but I think Lake in this late trend is catching on.
Masters could use some of that same catch-on with fundraising, but also the message he's given.
So if those two hone their messages down the stretch, this could be a pickup, you know, a save in the governor's race to Republican and a pickup from the Democrat Senator Kelly as we go forward.
That leaves us with...
Probably the most interesting, probably the most frustrating, the most, whatever you want to call it, attempt to pick up a seat as in the state of Georgia.
Everything has went on in this race.
Herschel Walker has been attacked.
And attacked and attacked and attacked and attacked over and over and over again.
Multiple millions of dollars being poured into these tax, ranging from his business dealings, ranging from his family, ranging from, you know, is the latest updates that just came out, whether, you know, he encouraged his then girlfriend to get an abortion and paid for the abortion.
Um, you know, these are all questions that, uh, you know, again, have now dogged the Walker campaign through this cycle instead of staying on message with what they are trying to get out.
They've now had to go back in and deal with the, um, Fall out from these reports that, you know, he encouraged his former girlfriend to take, to have an abortion.
He paid for the abortion, sent and get well card.
The chaos caused by his son, Christian Walker, in this race is one that is also a...
It's caused some concern.
Now, for those of us in Georgia who've watched this race consistently, we've watched it over time, you know, again, there was a lot of concern that Walker was not going to be ready for this race because he didn't engage in the primary.
His polling It rightfully showed that he was going to win.
He didn't really need to spend resources.
But by not dealing with questions, not taking questions, not preparing yourself for questions, it has opened this race up and Walker's team to having to deal with these on the fly and with a candidate that at times struggles to answer the questions that have been given.
All that said, we're a week into this race.
News cycle in which these news broke about the former girlfriend and the abortions.
And numbers in Georgia just, frankly, have not changed.
We've not had a poll in the last few days.
It may have captured a multi-day poll.
We'll probably be seeing that here shortly.
But at this point in time, the spot polls and others have shown this to be the race not moving still.
That Warnock is ahead two to three points, depending on that.
Walker's ahead in some.
It had been ahead in a few, but now you're dealing with, in the margin of error race, both of these candidates are below 50%.
There's been very few polls that actually put Walker or Warnock in a position of winning this outright.
So that presents a runoff issue in the state of Georgia.
Georgia is still a runoff state.
So if you look at this race in total, The Democrats have not been, Warnock's not been attacking Walker over his latest issues with his girlfriend and the family issues.
You have to wonder if it's two things.
I've heard from both camps in this regard that they are now making some mental preparations that this would go to a runoff.
We'll see where that goes.
If that's true, then you're going to have extra in in baseball, so to speak, with politics in the state of Georgia.
And it's up in the air as to who would win this in a straight-up just Walker, just Warnock, unless the Walker-Warnock race became the battle for the Senate.
In other words, if Walker could win it, The Senate would have a 51 Republican, 49 Democrat.
If that be the case in this seat, then there will be just obscene amount of money, obscene amount of people, and everything coming in trying to influence the voters in the runoff here in Georgia.
I will have to say this, though.
I am also one that believes that if the race does go to a runoff, that I believe there could be other races in Georgia.
It may not be the only race on the ballot, and so that would be an interesting proposition to look at.
The other race here in Georgia is the governor's race, and this one is getting closer and closer to being called.
Kemp is up by six.
He's been up higher.
Depends on the poll, and these have been across the board.
Even a Democrat-leaning poll had Kemp up, too.
So, Abrams is not the...
exciting factor on the campaign trail she was in 2018. She's a very polarizing figure and she's struggling even among Democrat constituents here.
Brian Kemp, although not the most beloved on the Republican side, he is considered by Republicans to be much, much better than Stacey Abrams, and that is helping him because the definition of Abrams as liberal has been much easier to tag as we go forward.
So those are the races as we look at them.
These are the races that we're dealing with.
We may do one more update on the podcast here before November, but I wanted to give you about a month out here.
Here's where these races are.
Here's where I see them.
Here's what I've talked about.
The House, definitely, I believe, going to the Republican Senate, especially the way this is being played, it's going to be one or two either way at best, unless something breaks late here.
Joe Biden's approval numbers are playing a factor, and I know the Warnock race, also the Ryan race and Ohio race, his numbers are just not good.
They're not good down here in Georgia.
And when you tie Raphael Warnock to Joe Biden as voting with him 100% of the time, that has turned a great deal of people away.
So there's your update for your time today, for your run, your walk, your drive home, wherever you're at with us here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
Glad you joined in with us.
A lot more coming up this month.
Stay tuned.
Go to thedougcollinspodcast.com.
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Got a lot of neat things coming up in the future.
Want you to be a part of it here on the Doug Collins Podcast.
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