Senator John Fetterman faces a 108-point favorability swing among Pennsylvania Democrats, leaving him at minus 40 approval and prompting Republican overtures from Donald Trump to secure a Senate majority. Despite supporting progressive policies like abortion rights and universal healthcare, Fetterman's votes for Mark Wayne Mullen and an Iran blockade have alienated progressives, while DOJ redistricting mandates could shift 12 seats to Republicans. With JD Vance as Vice President, a potential Fetterman defection would mathematically guarantee GOP control, signaling the end of Democratic dominance in Congress. [Automatically generated summary]
We're now facing the very real possibility that Democrat Senator John Fetterman may quit the Democratic Party and join the Republicans.
There has been a strong and pronounced effort among Republicans to get Fetterman to quit.
Well, because he doesn't really line up with their public perception.
That is, he may vote largely with Democrats, but everything he says, everything people look at in him, represents a moderate Republican and not a Democrat.
And for this, we have seen a favorability swing into the negative with 108 points for Fetterman.
That is, he might actually just lose his Senate seat or he will have to become an independent or Republican because the Democrats absolutely despise him.
Now, we've never seen anything like it.
A negative drop of this magnitude, we have not seen before with a candidate who then succeeds.
In fact, with many other prominent Democrats who've quit the party, they actually had higher favorability than John Fetterman does.
Now, why does this matter?
Well, right now in the prediction markets, it is expected that Democrats will sweep, with Kahl Schiammet having it at around 44% that Democrats will win the House and the Senate.
Now, I'm just going to say this.
First, if Fetterman flips or goes independent, depending on who he coxes with, either way, he doesn't really represent the Democratic Party, so they're already hurting based on where he stands.
If he were to join the Republicans, the Republicans are going to maintain a very strong majority in the Senate.
But I'm going to throw this into the mix, guys.
I do not understand how the prediction markets are currently calculating a Democrat sweep, considering the DOJ just announced they will be mandating redistricting in states they believe have racially gerrymandered.
This means the DOJ could theoretically go to Illinois and say, You can't have these districts and force them to change.
Not that I think they're going to make moves that will help Democrats or force Democrats in blue states, but this unlocks the door for all of these red states with VRA districts to redistrict.
And this will give Republicans 12 new seats while taking 12 from the Democrats.
I'm sorry.
The prediction markets make no sense.
With this Fetterman news, Donald Trump is offering him a massive fundraising package as well as a full throated endorsement.
The Fetterman says he won't do it, but I don't think the story ends here.
The dude's polling is so apocalyptically bad, he has no choice.
But we'll see.
In the meantime, Republicans are gearing for a win in the midterms because of SCOTUS alone.
Not to mention, when you look at Democrat Party favorability, it's worse than the Republicans.
Donald Trump's approval rating is low, and Trump is the principal motivator.
Still, I think people who don't like Trump are more likely to be the people that would vote for a congressional candidate they know.
And the people who stand by Trump are the people who will never leave him and are motivated to go out and vote in the midterms because of Trump.
What I mean is, If you get a Republican coming out to his congressional district saying, vote for me, the people who don't like Trump were already the people who were motivated to vote based on the actual candidate.
Whereas Trump's hardcore base don't care.
They're going to vote if Trump tells them to go vote.
My friends, I actually think right now, while the Democrats do have the probability to win, I do think that's the case.
I don't think it's the probability to sweep.
And I do believe there is a slim chance Republicans take the whole thing, especially with this story from Politico.
Let's jump into the latest political breakdown, prediction markets, and polls.
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Let's read the news from Politico first before we get into the hard data.
Politico reporting as the Pennsylvania Democrat increasingly is isolated within his own party, Republicans are quietly trying to win him over.
They say it's a few days after the election in November, and the results have become clear Democrats have netted the four seats they need to claim a Senate majority.
Senate Republicans and President Donald Trump persuade Fetterman to switch parties or at least become an independent to ensure Republicans retain power in the chamber.
It's a scenario that's becoming less fantastical by the day.
The political environment is curdling for Republicans, and the quiet campaign to lure Fetterman across the aisle is underway.
Trump has made the sell, offering his patented total and complete endorsement, plus a financial windfall to the Pennsylvanian.
A handful of Senate Republicans are also gently feeling out Fetterman.
And responding to his concerns over the prospect of defecting from the Democrat Party, multiple high level GOP officials tell me.
If Fetterman does flip, according to officials who were given anonymity to talk about sensitive matters, it will be thanks in large part to his deepening friendship with a pair of senators and their high profile spouses.
Senator Dave McCormick of PA and his wife Dina, and Senator Katie Britt of Alaska and her husband Wesley.
Now let's take a look over at Pennsylvania.
Currently, Fetterman is not up for re election anyway.
If he were to flip, The number here, 46 to 50 in the 270 to win map, would become 45 to 51, guaranteeing even if Alaska were to flip Democrat with JD Vance as VP, Republicans hold the Senate.
Now, Fetterman has said, no, I'm not going to leave.
I'm a Democrat.
But Democrats don't think so.
Take a look at this from CNN's.
This is John Fetterman had a total of a 108 point drop.
I would just say that John Fetterman is doing as well with Pennsylvania Democrats as the New York Giants are as liked in the state of Pennsylvania or the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
I mean, just look at this among Pennsylvania Democrats and that approval of Fetterman.
Back in 2023, he was a Democrat liberal darling.
He was at plus 68 points.
Look at how low he has fallen down to negative 40 points.
He's down there with the Titanic among Democrats in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
And, you know, to put a comparison point on, you know, we always talk about how Chuck Schumer is not well liked by the Democratic base nationwide.
Chuck Schumer has a net popularity rating of about minus two points.
He is 38 points more popular than John Fetterman is with Pennsylvania Democrats.
And I was also looking at Kristen Sinema, who, of course, ended up leaving the Democratic Party in Arizona.
She was considerably more popular just before she shifted over than John Fetterman is at minus 40 points.
I would just know John was like off on the screen going, what, what, wait a minute, wait a minute.
108 points.
You never see anything like that, but my goodness gracious.
I mean, just take a look here.
Okay, 2,000 senators own party net ratings about when they lost a primary.
Bob Smith plus 15, Arlen Specter plus 13.
Of course, he switched parties to Democrats.
It didn't work for him from a Republican.
Plus six, Joe Lieberman.
Dick Lueger was at zero points.
Lisa Murkowski was at minus 15 points.
All of these were considerably more popular than John Fetterman is right now at minus 40 points.
He is below the lowest, the ones who actually got beat in a primary.
There is no historical analog to this.
That is how unpopular John Fetterman is with Pennsylvania Democrats.
There is basically no doubt in my mind that if Fetterman decides to run for re election as his Democrat, he will face a primary challenge and it will be a very competitive one.
I mean, that is the last thing that Democrats want to hear.
I mean, look at this.
Lowest approval among Dems at this point in term two.
Donald Trump has just a four point, four point approval rating.
George W. Bush, who is not well liked, was at 10%.
Richard Nixon was at 11%.
Donald Trump is the lowest of the low on this point.
The bottom line is this John Fetterman, when you look at his Net popularity rating at minus 40 points.
He's on a completely other planet from Chuck Schumer, who is also unpopular, and he's on a different galaxy entirely from other incumbents who actually lost re election far less popular than them.
You know, Senator, let's look back to 2022 because you were declared a hero in the Democratic Party for flipping a Republican seat, for holding off a challenge from Mehmet Oz, who is an incredibly well known and popular television doctor, now, of course, the head of Senators for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
But now, as you look toward re election in 2028, you become something of a pariah in the Democratic Party simply because you've been pursuing your own beliefs.
Even if they're at odds with the Democratic Party from time to time, there's talk of maybe a Democrat is going to primary you in the 2028 election.
And I recall back to what Ronald Reagan said, and we talked about this on the phone when you and Sandra and I had a conference call a week ago.
Ronald Reagan said, I didn't leave the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party left me.
And it seems the same thing is happening with you.
I mean, Democrats now like, and they want to pander to the extreme parts of the base.
And in fact, now you have actual candidates running on F. Trump, F. Trump, putting it actually in their commercials.
And then there are kinds of Communications.
So I know the bill that pays.
I know how to pay the bills as a Democrat, you know, right now, and I refuse to engage in that.
But now I guarantee you, as it gets closer to November, all the Democrats remember oh my gosh, we have to flip seats.
And we actually need other votes other than just the extreme part of my party.
We're going to remind that.
And now, as the only single Democrat that's flipped a seat, and now I've also made it mathematically impossible to even reclaim the majority in the United States Senate.
So If they want the Democratic Party to turn it into a witch burning and to go after the one Democrat that's done the thing that these people haven't been able to do, they're entitled to do it.
But I'm proud to represent Pennsylvania, and I don't just represent Democrats in Pennsylvania.
I represent all 13 million Pennsylvanians, and I'm going to play it straight.
I'm going to never lie or pretend something's wrong.
I'm going to just, what's right, I will support.
And that's the voice that I'm going to continue to be, regardless what.
Parts of the Democratic might disagree.
unidentified
Okay, so Senator, can I get your final thoughts on Iran and this economic blockade?
Strongly pro choice, supports codifying Roe v. Wade nationally.
Let's see.
He's a strong supporter advocating equal protections for LGBTQIA individuals.
He's an advocate for full nationwide legalization of marijuana.
He supports gun control.
He supports universal coverage as a right for health care, backing Medicare eligibility to 60.
Supports a $15 minimum wage, protects and expands benefits.
Pro immigration overall, supports criminal justice reform, redemption, and clemency.
Strong outspoken supporter for Israel.
Here's what is absolutely insane.
I'm just going to say it.
I disagree with them.
Oh, well, you know, I disagree with them on the abortion thing, but I am not pro life.
I am old school pro choice.
Abortion is bad.
We don't want more of it.
We should do something about it culturally.
Legally, it presents a problem due to medical issues, but it's a longer debate.
So, I'll just say I don't agree with most Republicans on an outright ban, but I had a conversation with Crowder and Glenn Beck, and we agreed on compromises that I think are well reasoned.
LGBTQ rights, I think, often are not really about rights.
I think they're going after kids, so I don't agree with that.
I'm not an advocate for full nationwide legalization of marijuana, but I'm in the middle on it.
I think pot's pretty bad, I do, but I don't know that banning it is how you deal with these things.
Cultural problems.
But that being said, I don't know if I'm in favor of legalization at this point.
Maybe.
But it's got to be some, there's got to be regulation to it, strong regulation.
So actually, I'd probably lean a little bit towards it.
I know, a little wishy washy.
My concern is abuse.
But again, I don't think you win this one with just outright bans.
It creates black markets, the cartels profit off it.
Let's regulate and control it.
Gun control, nope.
Healthcare, basic health coverage, I can agree with him.
So I disagree with this guy on a lot of things.
The only thing this dude actually is in line with Republicans on is supporting Israel.
And the war in Iran.
And for that, they are trying to turn.
The dude is a progressive leftist in every capacity.
I don't know how this guy actually joins the Republican Party.
Seriously.
He votes with Democrats on all the things that are the worst things, except he votes.
And then he votes.
I got to be honest, guys.
I like Fetterman, but not politically, right?
He calls out wokeness.
He attacks these socialists.
I respect it.
I think I have that pulled up, actually.
Fetterman says the Democratic Party is turning into.
He uses an expletive, but he's becoming socialist, a commie clown show.
I like that.
But I got to be honest, if you look at his voting record, he votes for all of the worst things.
Bro, I remember back in the day, people would be like, How do you describe yourself politically, Tim, like 20 years ago?
And I'd be like, Well, fiscally conservative, but socially liberal.
You know, because back in the day, you were like, We shouldn't be overspending.
We shouldn't be just dumping money on welfare programs.
I do want to help people.
But, you know, look, if two blokes want to get married in the privacy of their own home, Now, today, I actually maintain that same thing.
We shouldn't be overspending, but the Republicans are overspending too.
And we've gone way beyond two blokes who want to go hang out in the privacy of their own home.
They're putting it in schools.
The funny thing now is there was this middle ground that everyone was kind of like libertarian on where it's like, we're socially liberal, you know, smoke pot, whatever, buy Bitcoin, just stop spending money and starting wars.
You get Fetterman who's like, no, no, let's spend all the money and start wars.
I don't know exactly what about Fetterman has made him anything good to anyone.
Why Trump would want him, but apparently he does.
Donald Trump is offering this massive endorsement, total and complete endorsement, if he joins the GOP.
On March 19th, Fetterman broke with his Democratic colleagues to cast a tie breaking vote to advance the nomination of Mark Wayne Mullen to replace Christine Nome.
So what?
Mullen, as was pointed out during his confirmation, Had challenged a union leader to a fist fight, and it was based on both of their parts.
Okay, well, you know, enabled Donald Trump and skipped work.
They really don't have very many strong reasons for wanting the primary.
I got to be honest.
So we'll see, my friends.
What is confusing to me, as I brought this up into my morning segment, is that right now the prediction markets have a Republican House of Senate at 20%.
If Fetterman breaks in the Democrats because he literally has to, otherwise, he'll just, his career's over.
They might even remove him.
If he does break, it's a guarantee Republicans win, it's over.
Even right now, according to the polls, Republicans are expected to have 50 seats, which gives them JD Vance as a tiebreaker.
They control the Senate, even if Democrats win every single toss up.
Then you've got the redistricting efforts.
The DOJ says they are going to go after all of these racially gerrymandered states.
I don't see why.
20% is the probability for a Republican sweep.
I got to be honest.
Right now, you've got Democrat sweep stable at 45.
Democrat House, Republican Senate has declined, and Republican sweep has gone up.
If anything, the idea that Democrats win the House and the Senate is ludicrous, but still has the plurality in the prediction markets.
That makes literally no sense based on any of the polling data and the political machinations that we are currently witnessing.
Now, the question, I suppose, is.
Do you really need Fetterman?
If Fetterman flips, the Democrats are done.
Republicans might actually win Congress through redistricting.
That's it.
Doesn't matter what Democrats want to do or hope to accomplish or what polls they swing.
Republicans could actually just win the House based on the redistricting.
Let me show you.
Right now, the prediction Democrats are going to win 216 to 202.
This is crazy.
Republicans have to win every toss up just to get a teeny majority, just three.
Democrats, based on the current polling, doing very well.
Again, this is just polling.
But if redistricting happens, let's do this.
We're going to eliminate these two red districts in Louisiana.
We're going to get rid of this district.
To be fair, there's going to be at least one.
And we'll get rid of this red, make that one red, make this one red.
If we get the redistricting we expect, then you are going to see.
It's going to be a nuke.
Well, to be fair, with light redistricting, if Virginia loses as well, Virginia's expected to lose their court battle over the redistricting, which indicates they will have.
It's going to be 211 Republican based on polls to 207 Democrats, advantage Republicans.
That's why I'm surprised people are expecting a Democrat sweep.
All of the political machinations indicate Republicans taking this through procedural means.
By all means, criticize them for that.
That's fine.
This is the game that's currently underway.
So, okay, I did have this pulled up.
This is where Fetterman was like, oh, I'm going to quit.
No, no, no, no.
It's a fake quote, fact check, not correct.
What I will say is the biggest factor affecting Trump and Republicans right now is jet fuel shortages, fuel prices.
All these, you get these mega guys coming out being like, in two months, the Iran war is going to be over, that we're going to have cheap gas.
And I think we might be able to get this one on Real Clear Politics, get the polling on this one.
Senate election polls for Maine.
We're going to drag this one over, my friends, and see what we're currently looking at.
We got Georgia.
What do we got here?
Louisiana.
We got Texas.
We got Michigan.
Show me Maine.
The latest.
They actually don't have a Maine going back for a while.
This is interesting.
Really?
I find that interesting.
Let's do this.
Maine Senate polling 2026.
There we go.
The New York Times.
They can fill us in.
Platner is currently up 35 against Mills.
Oh, this is primary.
We don't care about the primaries, though.
I don't want the primary.
I want the general.
Can you give me the general?
We know it's going to be Collins.
But there we go.
So, with Mills out of the race, so this echelon insights don't matter.
If it's Platner versus Collins, they're showing Platner at plus nine.
However, oh, wow, Collins versus Mills.
Collins wins.
They are predicting that Platner takes this one.
Now, that's interesting.
You know, I got to be honest.
Collins is no good trying to play this middle of the road game.
You're not going to get anybody.
So they are calling that one blue, despite it being toss up territory.
Okay, let's just play it.
Let's give every toss up to the Democrats.
50 50.
JD Vance as senator, it's over.
I'm sorry, JD Vance as VP is Senator tiebreak, Senate tiebreak.
All Republicans need to do is win one of these seats.
So I'm not convinced.
I'm not convinced.
Republican party favorability is currently way better.
Fetterman is at odds with his own party.
It's going to be interesting.
Now, what I really love about Plattner is he's a, he's a, I'm sorry, I don't say this lightly.
I think the dude's a Nazi.
Like a neo Nazi, obviously the Nazi party doesn't exist.
I think the dude is a white nationalist.
I think he is a neo Nazi.
I don't think his worldview has changed.
I think that a lot of these neo Nazi guys, here's what you gotta understand white nationalism, white supremacy, racial segregation, it's not all the same thing that the left would say.
I believe that Graham Plattner wants racial segregation.
He wants white people to be separate from black people.
I believe that he supports what the Nazis stood for.
And I believe he genuinely is a lefty economically.
You can be an economic leftist, a socialist, and still believe in racial segregation.
In fact, many Democrats do.
Here's the distinction it's all racial identitarianism.
The distinction, however, is that Democrats don't like white people, and Graham does like white people.
If you were a neo Nazi and you wanted policies that separated black people from white people, the Democratic Party is where you'd go.
You can't come out and just say you're a Nazi, though, but Homeboy had a Nazi Totenkampf, one of the most egregious tattoos you could get in support of Nazism on his chest for 20 plus years.
His story is that he and his buddies were drunk and went to a tattoo parlor in Croatia and saw a cool skull and crossbone on the wall, so we got it.
I'm going to stress.
Cursory search shows that Nazi imagery in Croatia has been illegal for decades.
So, what tattoo parlor did he go to where they had a Nazi image on the wall?
He was like, I want that.
The other question I have is, Were there other Nazi images on the wall?
Certainly, if they have a Totten Kampf, I'd imagine they'd have other symbols as well that you could choose from.