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May 6, 2025 - The Culture War - Tim Pool

32:52

Democrats IMPLODING Despite Trump SMEARS, Democrats Polling IS WORSE ft. Ryan Girdusky

BUY CAST BREW COFFEE TO SUPPORT THE SHOW - https://castbrew.com/ Become A Member And Protect Our Work at http://www.timcast.com Host: Tim Pool @Timcast (everywhere) Guest: Ryan Girdusky @RyanGirdusky (X) My Second Channel - https://www.youtube.com/timcastnews Podcast Channel - https://www.youtube.com/TimcastIRL

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tim pool ▲ ● ▼		We'll jump into this next story.
		This one's fascinating.
		Trump's falling in the polls.
		Why aren't Democrats benefiting?
		I absolutely love this.
		Despite the fact that the media is attacking Donald Trump, they're smearing him and insulting him.
		Everything he does is wrong.
		Democrats are dropping worse.
		Donald Trump's approval rating Let's pull up his aggregate approval.
		This is fantastic.
		Let's do the RealClearPolitics Trump aggregate.
		And let's see where Trump is currently at.
		RealClearPolitics president job approval.
		Heavens to Betsy.
		It is 45% approval.
		Let's do this.
		Voters rate.
		Let's see.
		Is that the right one?
		Yes, yes, yes.
		Here we go.
		You know what?
		You know what?
		I'll pull this one in real quick.
		Look at this.
		Democrats' favorability hits new low.
		Still favored, they say, over the GOP.
		Fine.
		But check this out.
		Democrat favorability is 41%.
		That is, my friends, Democrats' favorability is lower than that of Trump's job approval rating.
		Now, civics has similar metrics.
		I'm not going to pull up 50 million polls.
		The point is this.
		I will absolutely state it's fair to say I'm using an aggregate.
		If we go to Fox News, what's the latest Fox News?
		Do they have one here?
		Doesn't look like they have a Fox News poll on the job approval for Trump.
		But Trump's got a couple polls that are positive.
		Rasmussen's got them plus three, but let's just say minus six.
		Forty five point two.
		Democrats are still doing worse.
		So we're going to be joined by Ryan James Gerdusky.
		Let me get this pulled up.
		And he will talk to us about what is currently going on with the Democratic Party and why it's not been going so well.
		So let me see if I can get this pulled up quickly.
		We're going to get that going.
		Get that going.
		Ryan, can you hear me?
unidentified		Yes, I can.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		How's it going, man?
unidentified		Good.
unidentified		How are you doing?
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I'm doing pretty well.
		Thank you for joining me.
		We were just talking about – there's a semaphore article from Dave Weigel that says Trump's polling is dropping.
		But Democrats aren't benefiting.
		In fact, depending on which polls you compare, Donald Trump's approval rating in the aggregate is 45 percent.
		Democrats' favorability, according to a Fox News poll, is 41. And when you look at civics polling, you can see Democrat favorability is 31 percent.
		To Republicans, I think, are at 38. So I'm curious what you're seeing and why the Democrats are doing so miserably, even with all the bad news Trump has been getting.
unidentified		So I did a whole Substack post about this in my National Populist Newsletter, and I had a whole episode about this.
		On my podcast called A Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski.
		So check that out if you want all the details.
		But here's the main part.
		There have been about 12 polls in the last month.
		ABC, Washington Post, The New York Times, CNN, CBS, Emerson, Fox News.
		Those are the major ones.
		And there were two major outliers, right, to get to this 45% number for Trump.
		The two outliers were Atlas Intel and Qantas Insights.
		And why they are important was Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2024 election cycle.
		Qantas Insight was the third.
		Atlas Intel had Trump at a negative 6%.
		Qantas inside had a negative 3%.
		That's not that bad.
		For Trump especially, it's really good.
		If you look overall, they brought the aggregate up.
		It's much worse when you take those out.
		So I want to put a caveat and sit there and say the two most accurate pollsters sit there and say Trump's actually in a better place.
		And primarily because those two pollsters have a much higher support level among Republicans and among independents.
		Among Republicans, they average about 85% support for Trump.
		While all the other polls, like the Fox News poll and the CNN poll...
		I have Trump Closter with 70% rating, and I kind of more believe the Atlas Insight and Qantas Insight polls, Atlas Intel and Qantas Insight polls than those.
		Democrats face a problem with branding.
		People look at the Democratic Party and they think of it as weak on crime, weak on immigration, bad on the economy.
		Even though they don't like the tariffs and they have a lot of uncertainty about the tariffs and the messaging about the tariffs, the other party has a branding problem where they just seem bad when their biggest...
		Name brands around them are the AOCs and the Bernie Sanders and the social justice warriors on social media who want to talk about trans and kids.
		That's just, I mean, a branding problem that they can't get away from, especially in like 100 days post the new year and 150 days post-election.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Is there anybody in the Democratic Party who is counter to the far left or the woke?
unidentified		Yeah, I mean, Josh Shapiro is considered more moderate.
		Wes Moore, Wes Moore already announced he's not running for president in 2028.
		That's already over.
		I don't really know what Gavin Newsom's doing, trying to be a podcast host and, you know, having on right-wingers and telling him how much, how Charlie Kirk, how much, you know, his kids watch his show.
		That's...
		I don't really know what that is.
		He's trying to do something.
		But when the rubber meets the road, even like an Andrew Cuomo type who was considered a quote-unquote moderate was the guy who said, hey, let's let all the criminals out of jail.
		So I have not seen a case where a Democratic leader has taken on his party in any substantial way.
		On anything from the trans issue to the crime issue to the immigration issue.
		You know, you have Bernie Sanders saying there, saying on an interview recently, we need to enforce the border.
		We need to secure the border.
		Yet and still voting against every single Trump border policy.
		You had another congressman from southern Texas on the border who voted for the Lake and Riley Act and then immediately went on television to apologize for voting for it.
		That's just, I mean, that's just the hypocrisy of them right now is that there's two kinds of people, one who are doing messaging things and the other ones who are doing voting things.
		And when they vote, they have to, unless they're in a ruby red Republican district, they have to apologize.
		There's a congressman in New York 3, it's a district that Trump won by five points, who says, I am, I am Long Island, I can't remember his name talking about my head, but he says, I'm from Long Island.
		I'm a Long Island Democrat, but I'm moderate.
		Votes immediately, when he gets into Congress, again, re-elected.
		Votes immediately to start allowing transgender girls to play in female biological girls' sports.
		An issue that you could not be more popular on.
		He just couldn't bring himself to vote for it.
		So I think there is a general fear among the party's base that the Jasmine Crockett's of the party really run the show.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		It just doesn't make sense.
		It's patently obvious to any reasonable person.
		The trans and the kids, that's an 80-20 issue.
		I think it was actually 83-17.
		Most people are like, yeah, don't do that.
		The women's sports thing, if you're a politician, if you're a Democrat, like you're mentioning this guy in New York where Trump won.
unidentified		Tom Suozzi, that's his name.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Is he not thinking to himself, I guess I will lose in 2026?
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I don't understand.
unidentified		Yeah, he's hoping his local name brand can sit there and carry him through or that people aren't paying attention.
		And that's really what they are.
		Democrats are facing the same problem around the trans issue that Republicans were facing around abortion pre-Trump's announcement, which was, hey, if we just don't talk about it, hopefully people will forget our position.
		And, you know, there's just but there were loudmouth, you know, conservatives who are sitting there saying.
		You know, life conception begins the moment the date starts.
		And, like, they were absolutely no wiggle room whatsoever on the abortion issue, and they were the face of the party to the left.
		On the right, there's a million people who are like, oh no, this is okay, transing children.
		There was that one video, I don't know if you saw this girl, she was in a wheelchair, she had some kind of severe issue, and she was being trans, and she was either Down syndrome or autistic, something like that, but clearly non-verbal, and they had just cut her breasts off, and they're all celebrating it.
		And it looks sickening to the average person.
		And I'm sorry, but you own it until you denounce it.
		And they refuse to denounce it.
		So they own it.
		And that's their problem right now, where they are too afraid of their own party.
		There was that one congressman from Massachusetts who immediately upon announcing that, you know, girls, biological girls sports be protected.
		What is his name now?
		Congress Democrat from northern Massachusetts.
		I'll think of his name probably.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I remember that, and I'm just laughing because I'm like, all of these problems seem easily avoidable for Democrats.
		Right?
		Right.
unidentified		They're afraid of their own base.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but so I don't understand how they...
unidentified		Well, they expect Trump's negatives to carry them through.
		And look, Trump does have high negatives in some polling and some constituencies in the country.
		The tariff messaging has been very wonky and people are a little nervous about it.
		Yet and still.
		You have to be something in order to eventually win the White House one day.
		And Democrats, I want to go a little further down the road.
		Democrats have a problem after the next presidential election.
		In 2028, the map is the same as it is now.
		In 2032 and beyond, because of the way the population changed and people moving to Texas and Florida, Republicans can win the White House starting in 2032, so long as they just carry Ohio.
		And the Sun Belt.
		So North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
		As long as they care.
		They don't need Pennsylvania anymore.
		They don't need Michigan.
		They don't need Wisconsin.
		They don't need New Hampshire.
		They don't need Minnesota.
		They don't need Virginia.
		All of those states that Democrats are competitive in.
		They lost the last one.
		They won the one before.
		They lost.
		They won whatever those key swing states.
		They don't matter anymore just because of the census.
		There is a timetable.
		And they have very short.
		You know, there's a very short runway to sit there and carry themselves off to be a competitive party.
		You know, a person like Wes Moore saying, hey, I'm off the table.
		You have Josh Shapiro, who has all the personalities that they like, although he does the black sound where he pretends to be Obama.
		And you have Gretchen Whitmer sitting there and cozying up to Trump, and Gavin Newsom cozying up to Trump.
		But the ascending voices in the party are the AOCs, and they are the people who are, you know, being anti-Trump is the whole personality.
		It's the entire purpose of them existing.
		Rahm Emanuel, Obama's...
		He's a former chief of staff and he was a former ambassador and mayor from Chicago.
		He's thinking about running for president, so he's doing this podcast tour right now.
		And he's getting absolutely battered because he's running on this moderate issue of like, hey, you know, this is not really great.
		And these podcasts, these left-wing podcasts, are ripping him to shreds because that's really where the party is.
		It is a party of college-educated white women, black women, and, you know, the alphabet soup.
		Mafia and progressive nonprofits.
		That's who's there.
		That's who is there.
		It doesn't mean that they can't ever win a House seat.
		It doesn't mean they can't flip the House.
		It doesn't mean that Trump's negatives won't matter in these middle-of-the-road House districts.
		But for a presidency, for the long haul, for these swing states, they have a brand that they have to sit there and either shed...
		Or fully embrace or figure out some other way.
		But there's a very, very, very short runway.
		2028 is going to be the last time before a decade of hurt comes their way, unless Georgia goes permanently blue or North Carolina does.
		But if either one of those two things happen, they have a very hard decade ahead of them.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		One of the things I was just bringing up is this is why they're so adamant on mass migration.
		With the net out-migration from these blue states you mentioned, the only other solution is going to be bring in as many illegal immigrants as possible so when that 2030 census happens, they can maintain some competitive numbers.
		But I'm curious if that, like, are they going to be able to do that?
		I mean, how many new illegal immigrants or migrants in general do they need to bring in to California to not lose any seats, and is it even possible?
unidentified		I'm so glad you brought that up because I actually just wrote a piece about this for the Washington Examiner.
		So in 2022, right, and then they did the census where they sat there and said these are the estimate number of house seats they were going to lose.
		Illinois, California, and New York were slated to lose 10 house seats.
		Five from California, three from New York, two from Illinois.
		Because of both legal and illegal, both legal and illegal.
		A majority of Americans are leaving those states in droves because they are failed states.
		They have failed policies.
		Democrats cannot run states.
		Both legal and illegal immigrants moved to those states.
		So when they readjusted it for 2024, that 10-seat loss was brought down to six seats.
		Because enough, both legal and illegal, it is legal immigration too.
		Enough of them had moved to those states to offset the losses of Americans.
		Immigration is the only pipeline Democrats have.
		That being said, they're also moving to Florida and Texas.
		But North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee were all slated to gain a House seat.
		None of them will gain a House seat now at the rate that they're going.
		But nonetheless, all those states will lose seats.
		And there is enough there.
		All you need is like two or three more seats.
		And once that's there, it's over.
		And Texas and Florida together without Arizona and Utah and Idaho are going to gain eight seats because both immigrants are going there and Americans are moving there in droves.
		And there's nothing they could do about it.
		It's really rough for them.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		It's a double-edged sword, though.
		The one polling area where Trump seems to be doing the best is on immigration.
		The American people want him to deport people.
unidentified		Because the border is not broken anymore.
		We had 11,000 border crossings in the first two months of Trump's presidency.
		Border apprehensions, rather, in the first two months of Trump's presidency.
		A year ago, it was like 300,000.
		It's literally a 96% reduction.
		Overnight, we didn't need any new policies.
		We just need a new president.
		Trump was right when he said that.
		Even the mass deportations, even the ones that are getting huge media explosions, it hasn't moved the general public's opinion at all that immigration needs to be fixed and that we need both fewer numbers of legal immigrants.
		Americans do want less.
		We bring in 1.1 million legal immigrants per year.
		They want about 500,000.
		But they want less legal immigrants.
		And they also...
		They don't care.
		They say, no, you broke the law.
		You have to leave this country.
		It is your own thing.
		There is this proposal that Trump has that they're going to pay people $1,000 to leave the country on their own illegal immigrants.
		Sweden has a policy like that that's been moderately successful.
		They're actually just increasing to $35,000.
		But if we have even a program where if you've been in the country for a year and we can prove it and you want to leave and you don't have a criminal record and $10,000, that's way faster and way cheaper than going through the courts.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Wait, $35,000?
unidentified		Yeah, Sweden's proposing an increase into $35,000 to allow migrants, if they want to leave the country and never return, they can get $35,000.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		$35?
		It's $1,000 in the U.S. right now.
		The DHS proposal was $1,000.
unidentified		Right, Sweden has $1,000 right now.
		$35,000.
		But think of that, Tim, that's an IQ test.
		Like, if you think, hey, I'm going to make less than $35,000 here, then...
		We really don't need you.
		I mean, that's a really good way of getting an IQ test going, where if you're like, no, I can stay here.
		I'll have my own small business.
		I'll do something really prosperous.
		If you're like, 35 grand, I'm not going to make that in my whole entire life.
		Let me just take the cash and go back to Brazil or wherever.
		That's a good metric for how the kinds of people we should have versus they don't.
		And it'd be once again, we spend way more in the court system and way more time.
		If this could accelerate it and get people out faster, it's not a bad way of thinking about it.
		Think about how much net money you'd save, even though it's unjust and they shouldn't get any money.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		The immigration thing, though, is a double-edged sword is what I was mentioning because Trump's polling so well on it, but they rely on it to bolster their Electoral College votes.
		There's sort of a...
		Terrifying realization in that.
		Democrats know they're engaged in unpopular activities the American voter does not like, but they will gain electoral college votes just because people in the districts will vote Democrat no matter what.
		So they're outright telling us they don't care for the democratic process.
unidentified		Right.
		And it's also, think about the unfairness of it.
		Most immigrants don't vote.
		Most illegal immigrants usually don't vote.
		I mean, there's a few cases, but not many.
		But most immigrants don't vote.
		So if you're in AOC's district, right, or you're in a district in Los Angeles, a very heavy immigrant district, you...
		Really only need like 90,000 votes to win because most people who live in the district who make it up aren't voting.
		If you live in Ohio or New Hampshire or a state with a district that's very populated, equally populated, but has a lot more registered voters, you need a quarter of a million or 300,000 votes to win.
		It really becomes an unfair system as a whole for candidates and Americans how much their vote counts for.
		Your vote counts a lot more in a district that's heavily immigrant because most of those people who are...
		We're representing the census, representing the district, cannot vote for or against you.
		That's part of the unfairness.
		And if we didn't, if we sat there and said, hey, let's have a freeze, let's reduce numbers and let's deport illegals, you know, maybe Texas and Florida would lose a House seat as well, as well as New York, California, and Illinois losing a ton.
		But Ohio, Indiana, you know, North Carolina, those states with overrepresented populations of actual American citizens would also gain seats as well.
		I mean, Illinois is such a failed state.
		A couple of years ago, someone won the lottery, the state lottery, and they couldn't even cash it because they couldn't pay the guy who won the lottery.
		Imagine quitting your job, telling your boss to F off, and you can't get your lottery ticket cashed in.
		But that's how broke some of these states are.
		And they don't have...
		Their only way of facilitating anything is by sitting there and having...
		And having immigrants come in and pour in.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		This is a very immediate issue.
		One of the other issues that I've been tracking is the population decline.
		So Gen Alpha right now is projecting to end this year, and there's only about 40 to 42 million, which is a dramatic drop-off.
		You've got 69 million Gen Z, 72 million millennials, I think around 69 million Gen Xers.
		In the next 10 years...
		Starting right now, actually, they're calling it the demographic cliff, where because of the financial crisis in 2007, you didn't have anybody having kids.
		We're supposed to have a bunch of 18-year-olds right now entering that workforce.
		There's also that argument, and I don't know how Trump answers that.
		I know he's offered up that baby bonus.
		But that's not going to do anything for us in the immediate in terms of the labor force.
		Democrats have been arguing immigration reverses this.
		And there's even been some never-Trumpers who have argued mass migration to replace our decimated workforce.
		Either way, it sounds like, you know, I feel like if we do that, then it's going to disrupt the American tradition.
		It's going to shift the culture dramatically.
		The people who come, I'm not saying they're bad people, but they don't have the same worldview or values.
unidentified		Of course.
		But then there's also the concern no people.
		No, this is my episode for a numbers game coming up, for my podcast, a numbers game coming up this Thursday.
		So, 2007, sorry, 2025, the high school class that's graduating right now is the biggest population, sheer population size, of high school graduates that ever existed.
		And so far, that ever will exist.
		It's gotten smaller every single class size since.
		The graduating class of 2042 will be smaller than the class of 2025 because people have less and less children.
		Two, three primary issues.
		One, the group that actually had the biggest drop off on birth rates were Latinos in the mid 2000s.
		Whereas they assimilated, they didn't have three children, more Hispanics of like 1.9 Black Americans have very few children.
		They actually have fewer children than whites do now.
		Wow, I know that.
		I know that.
		Black fertility has plumped There's virtually no teen pregnancy anymore, especially not compared to the 90s when you and I were growing up.
		That doesn't exist in the same numbers whatsoever.
		And the white numbers have declined, but not nearly what black and Hispanic numbers have.
		Hispanic numbers are higher than whites, but a lot of that is actually due to migration and immigration.
		Remember, there's two things I want you to think about.
		One, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, these big, big countries, they all have more deaths per year than they do have births.
		All of these countries, their fertility rate have all plummeted.
		In the future, in 10 years from now, China will be a net importer of workers.
		India will be a net importer of workers.
		So will Mexico.
		They will all need low-skill workers.
		There is going to be fewer and fewer countries that have...
		The population of young people to fill those jobs.
		Two, our workforce participation rate is still only 62.6%.
		It used to be over 68%.
		The financial crisis took 6% of the labor force and they never came back.
		6% labor force never came back after the 2007 financial crisis.
		They need to be reengaged in some capacity whatsoever.
		And then as far as a baby bump goes, they're...
		Our alternatives, the government can do both local, state, and federal to set their increased birth rates, but they have to be very, very smart about it.
		Building condominiums in cities where they have a two-bedroom, two-bathroom, and 1,000 square feet is not how you facilitate growing families.
		It's just not.
		There's a lot of things that they could do that they've not been smart about.
		They've never even approached it.
		So immigration, yes, it could do it.
		But there are a lot of downsides.
		You mentioned civic engagement.
		You mentioned society.
		There's a famous, famous book called Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam from 2000.
		The number one thing that degrades and declines civic engagement, civic nationalism, anything to do with wanting to be around people like you and different than you is mass immigration, is the worst, worst, worst thing that you could do for a society when it comes to social capital and social trust.
		So there are a lot of downsides.
		There are ways to grow the native population, and they should pursue them on every course.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		But what's going to happen in the United States?
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I mean, our labor force is shrinking.
unidentified		Our labor force is shrinking, but also a third of our labor force is not even in the labor market.
unidentified		35% of people between ages 18 to 64 who are not in school and not retired are not working.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Neat.
unidentified		So there's a lot of domestic labor to find if we can sit there and engage them.
		I think that that's part of it.
		I think that's how you deal with it in the middle, and then you sit there and work on trying to increase birth rates going forward.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Do you think it's possible that...
		I'll put it this way.
		The cultural issues we are facing, right?
		You've got millennials are finally starting to have kids in their 30s.
		They were failure to launch, developmentally delayed, whatever.
		I think that there was a major cultural shift, either intentionally, I don't know if it was intentional, but you have people saying the world's overpopulated, don't have kids.
		You've got the New York Times saying climate change, don't have kids.
		How do you reverse a cultural trend like that?
		You know, it's one thing to say, hey, we're going to make plans.
		We're going to encourage people to have kids.
		But you've got ingrained, entrenched ideologies in this country that say don't do it.
unidentified		Right.
		So there's two things.
		So the only two countries or Western countries that have large population of children, Israel and the nation of Georgia and nation of Georgia, they had actually really bad fertility rates.
		And the patriarch, basically their version of the Pope, the patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, back in 2000, I want to say it's 15, 16, announced that for every third child born in the country, he was going to personally baptize them and people get selfies and whatnot.
		And actually birth rates skyrocket.
		Wow.
		Yeah.
		But the biggest thing that actually enables...
		Birth rates are birth rates.
		People have more children because they're around more children.
		And I think that's part of it.
		There's also a huge difference between conservatives and liberals.
		Conservatives are having a decent amount of children.
		Liberals have virtually none.
		And young, I mean, that's just the truth.
		There's a huge divide.
		And I think that if you have, listen, if you're a conservative parent and you have a daughter, make sure that they don't surround themselves by liberals who tell them that hating kids is the whole thing.
		I think people need to have a readjustment and the cultures of readjustment saying having kids is a sacrifice.
		It's a lot, but at the same time, the reward is far out, outnumbers the cost.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I mean, I recently had my first kid.
		I don't think it was a sacrifice at all.
		I feel like a lot of those narratives...
		They tell people to prioritize.
unidentified		You live in the middle of the woods by yourself.
		Your idea of a good time is hanging with the chickens.
		For other people, there's a sacrifice of time, there's a sacrifice of money, but not all sacrifice is a bad thing.
		Going to the gym is a sacrifice, but there's benefits to it.
		Eating well is a bit of a sacrifice.
		It's much easier to get bad food, but the sacrifices pay off.
		Having kids is a sacrifice.
		You give up something, but you get a whole lot more.
		Sacrifice is not a bad word.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but I do feel like for a lot of liberals, they're told that—we were just talking about this on the IRL the other day—maximize your pleasure, minimize your pain, so don't bother having kids because you're just living for the now nihilism.
		I've been arguing for a long time.
		I guess the end result, it doesn't matter if we're arguing against liberals.
		They're not having kids.
		And so we are seeing that Gen Z, there's a huge uptick in Christianity.
		There is a trend towards the right.
		And there's a lot of people who think it's because we've won the arguments that conservatives, I say we as in they, like, I don't consider myself to be overtly conservative, but this political space has a better...
		I actually think that's a tiny component of it.
unidentified		Yeah, and I'll say two things.
		One, I think that a problem for millennials, and as a millennial, I think we were told that we have more time than we do.
		I think a lot of millennials were told, oh no, everyone can have a kid at age 40 and have no problems whatsoever, which is not true.
		And secondly, I think that if places were really serious about this, about trying to get people started younger in life and not due to...
		I don't see why we can't figure out accelerated programs in schools to get kids out of college by 20 and get kids out of high school by 16 or 17. I don't know why we have to...
		If they're capable, if they're smart, if they can...
		Get some kind of a fellowship program or work program.
		Getting them to adulthood faster will also make them have children faster.
		I think that is part of it.
		Going to school until you're mid to late 20s is just, I mean, that's the way you just forbid people to have kids because they have to go to school for so long.
		Right.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		I mean, they're getting out of school when they're 22 or 24. That's nuts.
		But that's why I'm a big fan of Trump's moves against the Department of Education, reforming all of these things.
		I think if we're going to have school systems, I prefer pod education, like your communities come together.
		I also think it's insane to me that our schooling system in public schools is a one-size-fits-all because that's just not correct.
		Some kids are stupid.
		Some kids are smart.
		You can't put them all in the same place and say, good luck, because the smart kids are going to be like, why am I sitting here doing nothing?
		And the dumb kids are going to be saying, this is too fast.
		So that change has happened.
		But my point on the birth stuff is, in 20 years, there's just no liberals.
		Their values will largely fade away with the fact that they don't reproduce.
unidentified		And I know that— Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's—I mean, there'll always be some conservative kids who are going to become a liberal, but—and, like, there were some liberal kids who become conservative.
		But that is a big thing in those values, if those populations grow and where they're growing naturally.
		You know, there's a town, like, called St. Mary's, Kansas.
		You wouldn't know this town, but it's a town of, like, Latin mass Catholics.
		They're very traditional, very religious, but it's not like a cult.
		You can buy a house there if you want to.
		It's in rural Kansas.
		Their average population in this town is, like, 25. All the surrounding rural areas are, like, 57, 58. By convening around like-minded people of equal values or conservative values...
		That tends to promote the idea of having families around those things.
		And you've seen that in other parts of the country.
		That's a very, very big part of it because it's just in the middle of nowhere.
		But that's how you're seeing these other smaller areas of populations sit there and grow is by like-mindedness and by communal beliefs around ideas of religion, family, faith, freedom, all that other stuff.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Last question for you.
		Quick one, I suppose.
		Fox News poll said that Democrats are down relative to Republicans, but still Democrats are favored to win in 2026.
		I'm wondering what you think happens.
		I know we have a long way from the midterms, but based on what we're seeing now, how's it going to play out?
unidentified		Because the Republicans have such a small majority, there's two things to consider.
		One, if Ohio redistricts, right?
		There's three House seats in Ohio that Republicans could redistrict and do mid-cycle redistricting to make them Republican.
		That would at least bolster some of the numbers.
		The last environment was an R plus two.
		If it goes to a D plus two, which is a four-point swing, the good thing for Republicans is that there's 13 Democrats in Trump one seats.
		Republicans can pick off a few of those.
		It's much harder for Democrats to pick off Trump seats because there's only three Republicans in Kamala seats, and they're much closer towards the middle than the Trump seats, where there's a handful of Democrats who will be the last Democrat to ever represent the area.
		Henry Cular, for example, down in South.
		He's the last Marcy Captur from Ohio.
		These are dinosaurs who are the last ones to hold their seats.
		If the realignment continues, if Hispanics and young people show up and they still vote Republican, Republicans, even if they lose the House, it won't be by very much.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		Interesting.
		Well, Ryan, it's been a blast.
		Thanks for joining me.
		Where can people find you?
unidentified		Go on Twitter at Ryan Grodowski.
		My podcast, A Numbers Game.
		Please listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or if you listen to podcasts.
		And my newsletter is the National Populous Newsletter on Substack.
		You can go to natpopnewsletter.com.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		All right on, man.
		Thanks for hanging out.
		It's been a blast.
		We'll see you soon.
unidentified		Thank you.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Well, that was fun.
		Always great to get the insights from Ryan here.
		And I hope he's right about those midterms.
		So, my friends, make sure you smash that like button, share the show with everyone.
		You know, we, of course, will be rating our good friend Russell Brand, who is, I believe, is coming up right now.
		Let me grab that link for you guys.
		And then, of course, we're going to be back with more segments throughout the day.
		And we are going to be live at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL.
		I'm going to grab that link.
		We're going to launch that raid for you guys.
		Send you all over to hang out with Russell.
		Get it going.
		Let me see if I can grab...
		I think I got a minute.
		I can grab a Rumble rant real quick, right?
		I tried to get those in, but since we started doing these...
unidentified		Oh, I can't read it now.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		We had just one, but I'm not going to be able to get to it because I can't read it.
		So my friends, follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast.
		Thank you so much for hanging out.
		It's going to be interesting.
		There's a lot going on and also a little going on with the constant battle between Trump.
		And the Democrats, basically anything he does being negative, you always have that story lingering.
		But I got to be honest, it gets droll and repetitive.
		So, of course, we're here, you know, we're doing production behind the scenes, and we're trying to find stories we care about that, I'll put it this way.
		You know, I did a segment a little while ago about GTA 6. The game got delayed.
		And I was like, I don't know, I just, that mattered to me, I guess.
		But there's something to consider for us here.
		As we age and we care about different things, the same is true for those that watch the show, the core audience.
		And so what the younger generation cares about is going to be different from what we care about.
		And when you get dry politics, like basically, I'll put it this way, Democrats are failing so miserably, they're not making news anymore.
		And so it's just, what did Trump do today?
		So that seems to be what's dominating in the news cycle, my friends.
		But we'll wrap it up there.
		Smash the like button.
		Share the show.
		Follow me on Instagram at TimCast.

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