Elise Labott reports on diplomatic efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran acts as a costly "toll booth," and notes that while a UN resolution calls for force under Chapter 7, China opposes it. She argues that opening the strait requires either military victory or a deal, debunking claims it will open naturally post-war. Additionally, she covers NATO tensions amid Trump's rhetoric, intelligence assessments of Iran's 1,000-pound uranium stockpiles, and warns that failing to destroy production facilities could escalate the conflict beyond two weeks. Ultimately, the episode highlights the complex interplay between military necessity, diplomatic stalemates, and nuclear risks in modern geopolitics. [Automatically generated summary]
Well, you know, you heard President Trump the other night say that the U.S. is going to leave opening the Strait of Hormuz to the countries that he feels needs the oil more, whether that's Europe, whether that's Asia.
It is true.
Those countries take a lot more oil, a lot more natural gas.
And so the United Kingdom held a meeting of some 35, I think, nations to talk about could they get a coalition together to patrol the Strait and help escort some ships in.
To get through some of those tankers.
The problem is, first of all, any country that wants to put a ship through, even the prospect of putting a ship through without some deal with Iran to stand down.
Iran is mining the strait.
They have speedboats, they have drones.
Those ships, even the prospect of an attack, is going to make ships very skeptical about putting through.
Right now, they have what they're calling a toll booth.
People are calling a toll booth, which is they're letting ships that are not the United States, that are not Israel or any of these Gulf nations, they're letting them through at a steep price.
And so the idea is can these 30 nations work together to get some of these ships through without the insurance?
But the problem is, and I was going to say, without the buy in of Iran, without some diplomatic solution, it doesn't matter how many military ships are there because Iran would attack them.
So you're going to need some kind of diplomatic solution.
And that's why things are going on at the UN Security Council.
Bahrain is the president of the month long rotating presidency.
Bahrain wants It calls for an end to the war, calls for a diplomatic solution, but also is looking for what you call any means necessary to get shipping going again to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
Now, what does any means necessary mean?
That, by the Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, means including the use of force.
And the Chinese, who are a permanent member of the Security Council and have veto over any Security Council resolution, they're saying they don't want force.
in this resolution.
They want a diplomatic solution.
And so again, you're going to need, there's only two ways to open the strait.
There's only two ways to end this conflict.
You can end it militarily if you continue and someone remains victorious, or you can have a deal with Iran.
And it looks like all things are pointing to there's going to have to be some kind of diplomatic solution with Iran.
And that's what Pakistan and China are trying to work out.
And before we talk about Pakistan and China, the president said at his speech that the strait would open naturally at the end of the war.
Can you explain how that would happen, if that's possible, and what impact that could have on the United States if the war ends without the strait being open?
Well, in President Trump's mind, Iran closed the strait because of the war.
And so when the U.S. and Israel leave, Iran will stand down.
The problem is.
Iran is not letting any ship pass except ones that it lets pass.
There's no reason for it to not continue.
Now that it controls the strait, and when you saw the president had this 15 point plan to end the war, Iran came back with this five point plan and said, oh, yeah, under this plan, we control the strait now.
We say what happens.
So now that Iran controls the strait, it'll remain open to anybody that Iran wants it to remain open to.
I expect him to come with some kind of plan for NATO to help with reopening the strait, not necessarily under NATO auspices, but as part of this coalition.
You heard President Trump the other day threaten to withdraw from NATO.
He can't do that without the Senate authorizing a withdrawal from the NATO treaty.
That's very unlikely.
But at the same time, there is a lot of tension between the Trump administration and NATO.
Which is likely to continue.
This definitely affects the war in Ukraine.
And, you know, the NATO allies are upset that they weren't consulted by the Trump administration for, you know, before the U.S. went into the war with Israel.
And when President Trump looked for help, they were saying, look, this is not our war.
But the NATO alliance is much more than the war in Iran.
And I think Secretary General Ruta is really coming to smooth things over.
We've seen several months of real tension between the U.S. and NATO, not just on Iran, but also on the whole Greenland issue.
So this is to kind of put things back on a smoother track.
And I do think, despite the rhetoric from President Trump, despite the rhetoric from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, I think after this meeting, there'll be some kind of meeting of the minds.
They're not going to kiss and make up, if you will, but there'll be a plan for moving forward.
Well, President Trump and the Israelis say they've hit maybe 90% of their targets.
The intelligence, it's a difference of intelligence and reading the intelligence.
These sources are saying that the missile launchers are really what's important, because even if you have the missiles, It doesn't matter if you can't launch them.
So, first they went after the missile launching production facilities.
Then they were going after the missiles.
They still have two weeks and they still are going after some of these targets.
But what military and intelligence analysts say is it's not really necessarily the only key issue here.
Yes, those missile launchers are important.
Yes, those missile capabilities are important.
And President Trump does want to say he.
Finish the job before he leaves.
So there are a few weeks to go after those stockpiles.
But back to what you were saying earlier, the strategic problem right now for the global economy is the Strait of Hormuz.
And so the Iranians think they're winning solely on this economic choke point that they have.
So the missiles are important, but Iran's kind of holding the hostage of the global community is also important.
There's also, Mimi, the nuclear issue.
President Trump.
Laid out a lot of things in his speech the other day the Navy, the Air Force, the missile capability.
He also said, when we leave, the nuclear threat will be eliminated.
If he wants to credibly say that the nuclear threat is eliminated, you're going to have to go after that stockpile of 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium, which is fissile material for making a nuclear bomb.
But if he is going to take that uranium out and say that he's eliminated the nuclear threat, and this is what he said to, you know, one of the main reasons that he went to war, there are some mixed messages going on right now.
Secretary Rubio was talking about the conventional threat.
Conventional means missiles, drones.
Kind of weapons systems.
But the nuclear threat is different than a conventional threat.
And to go after the nuclear threat, that's not just facilities, which they have hit, but that's also the fissile material.
And if President Trump wants to go after that, that will take more than two weeks.
And that will put U.S. troops on the ground and they will be in danger.
And that could escalate the war.
So even if in President Trump's mind he has two weeks, Anything could happen between now and then to escalate the situation, and that could extend the war.