| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
|
unidentified
|
Be prepared for the worst. | |
| Thank you so much, Oliver. | ||
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| Mark Goldwein joins us now. | ||
| He's the senior policy director at the nonpartisan nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. | ||
|
unidentified
|
And Mr. Goldwine on the one big beautiful bill. | |
| We've had some disagreement about the fiscal impact of that legislation. | ||
| The Congressional Budget Office says it'll add $2.4 trillion to federal deficits. | ||
| The White House budget director says it'll save $1.4 trillion. | ||
|
unidentified
|
What say you? | |
| There's not really disagreement among those that are seriously looking at this budget. | ||
| By our estimates, it will add $3 trillion to the debt, including interest. | ||
| And if it's made permanent, it will add $5 trillion. | ||
| The way that White House is saying it'll save money is they want to ignore about $4 trillion worth of tax cuts. | ||
| They want to sort of give themselves credit for tax cuts that are currently about to expire, extending them for free. | ||
| But they don't want to charge themselves the cost of all of the new temporary policies in this bill. | ||
| So explain that for folks who are trying to wrap their heads around it. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
|
unidentified
|
So I guess here's one way to think about it. | |
| This bill has about $6 trillion of tax cuts and new spending. | ||
| About half of that is paid for with about $3 trillion worth of offsets. | ||
| So that's $3 trillion total of cost. | ||
| But what the administration is saying is we were going to extend these tax cuts anyway for a cost of $4 trillion. | ||
| And so if you subtract that $4 trillion we were already going to do, it's about $1 trillion of savings. | ||
| The problem with that is you don't get credit for we were ghanas. | ||
| You don't get credit for this might have happened otherwise. | ||
| The other problem is embedded within this bill is actually a ton of temporary tax cuts themselves that they're probably gonna extend later. | ||
| And so if you do the ghanas on both sides, it's still a trillion dollars added to the debt. | ||
| The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget has taken a look at this CRFB is where you can go for their website. | ||
| And one of the things in your analysis that you write is that this bill front loads its costs and backloads its savings. | ||
| Explain what that means. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, so I'll give you an example. | |
| In 2027, that's the first year the bill is fully in effect because it takes time to get a new tax code, et cetera. | ||
| This bill is going to add $500 billion to the deficit. | ||
| By 2030, it's only going to add only $100, $100, $200 billion. | ||
| That number goes down. | ||
| But it's not going down because the bill is actually getting cheaper over time. | ||
| It's going down, as I mentioned before, because a lot of the most expensive parts of the bill expire. | ||
| It is a four-year defense increase. | ||
| Then all of a sudden, we're going to go back to the old inadequate Defense Department. | ||
| It has four years of tax. | ||
| That's probably not likely going to happen. | ||
| Exactly. | ||
| Inadequate by their own description, right? | ||
| It has four years of no taxes on tip, no taxes on overtime, tax cuts for seniors, tax breaks for businesses, and then they all disappear. | ||
| That's not their intention. | ||
| They don't want these to disappear. |