CSPAN - Washington Journal Marc Goldwein
Aired: 2025-06-05
Duration: 03:58


=== Trillion Dollar Tax Cuts (03:58) ===

[00:00:00]  Be prepared for the worst.
[00:00:01]  Thank you so much, Oliver.
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[00:01:18]  Mark Goldwein joins us now.
[00:01:20]  He's the senior policy director at the nonpartisan nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
[00:01:25]  And Mr. Goldwine on the one big beautiful bill.
[00:01:28]  We've had some disagreement about the fiscal impact of that legislation.
[00:01:33]  The Congressional Budget Office says it'll add $2.4 trillion to federal deficits.
[00:01:38]  The White House budget director says it'll save $1.4 trillion.
[00:01:42]  What say you?
[00:01:44]  There's not really disagreement among those that are seriously looking at this budget.
[00:01:48]  By our estimates, it will add $3 trillion to the debt, including interest.
[00:01:53]  And if it's made permanent, it will add $5 trillion.
[00:01:55]  The way that White House is saying it'll save money is they want to ignore about $4 trillion worth of tax cuts.
[00:02:00]  They want to sort of give themselves credit for tax cuts that are currently about to expire, extending them for free.
[00:02:06]  But they don't want to charge themselves the cost of all of the new temporary policies in this bill.
[00:02:11]  So explain that for folks who are trying to wrap their heads around it.
[00:02:14]  Yeah.
[00:02:15]  So I guess here's one way to think about it.
[00:02:16]  This bill has about $6 trillion of tax cuts and new spending.
[00:02:20]  About half of that is paid for with about $3 trillion worth of offsets.
[00:02:23]  So that's $3 trillion total of cost.
[00:02:26]  But what the administration is saying is we were going to extend these tax cuts anyway for a cost of $4 trillion.
[00:02:32]  And so if you subtract that $4 trillion we were already going to do, it's about $1 trillion of savings.
[00:02:37]  The problem with that is you don't get credit for we were ghanas.
[00:02:40]  You don't get credit for this might have happened otherwise.
[00:02:42]  The other problem is embedded within this bill is actually a ton of temporary tax cuts themselves that they're probably gonna extend later.
[00:02:51]  And so if you do the ghanas on both sides, it's still a trillion dollars added to the debt.
[00:02:56]  The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget has taken a look at this CRFB is where you can go for their website.
[00:03:04]  And one of the things in your analysis that you write is that this bill front loads its costs and backloads its savings.
[00:03:11]  Explain what that means.
[00:03:12]  Yeah, so I'll give you an example.
[00:03:14]  In 2027, that's the first year the bill is fully in effect because it takes time to get a new tax code, et cetera.
[00:03:19]  This bill is going to add $500 billion to the deficit.
[00:03:23]  By 2030, it's only going to add only $100, $100, $200 billion.
[00:03:28]  That number goes down.
[00:03:29]  But it's not going down because the bill is actually getting cheaper over time.
[00:03:33]  It's going down, as I mentioned before, because a lot of the most expensive parts of the bill expire.
[00:03:37]  It is a four-year defense increase.
[00:03:39]  Then all of a sudden, we're going to go back to the old inadequate Defense Department.
[00:03:43]  It has four years of tax.
[00:03:44]  That's probably not likely going to happen.
[00:03:47]  Exactly.
[00:03:47]  Inadequate by their own description, right?
[00:03:49]  It has four years of no taxes on tip, no taxes on overtime, tax cuts for seniors, tax breaks for businesses, and then they all disappear.
[00:03:56]  That's not their intention.
[00:03:57]  They don't want these to disappear.