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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a 0 .25 % interest rate cut following the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
He also responded to questions on high prices and inflation.
Good afternoon.
My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.
The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years.
Thank you.
I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Thank you.
We're good to go.
We're good to go.
We're good to go.
We're good to go.
I think?
We're good to go.
I think?
Thank you very much.
We're good to go.
I think?
Thank you.
Thank you.
These projections, however, are not a committee plan or decision.
As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals.
If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly.
If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly, or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy more quickly.
The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy,
maximum employment and stable prices.
We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 % goal, and keeping longer -term inflation expectations well anchored.
Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans.
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.
Everything we do is in service to our public mission.
We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
Thank you and I look forward to your questions.
So let me start by saying why we cut today and then move to 2025.
So I would say today was a closer call, but we decided it was the right call because we thought it was the best decision to foster achievement of both of our goals, maximum employment and price stability.
We see the risks as two -sided, moving too slowly and needlessly undermine economic activity in the labor market, or move too quickly and needlessly undermine our progress on inflation.
So we're trying to steer between those two risks and on balance we decided to go ahead with a further cut and I'll give you some details on why.
Downside risks to the labor market do appear to have diminished but the labor market is now looser than pre -pandemic and it's clearly still cooling further so far in a gradual and orderly way.
We don't think we need further cooling in the labor market to get inflation down to two percent.
Job creation is now well below the level, or certainly below the level, that would hold unemployment constant.
The job finding rate is low and declining.
And other measures, such as surveys of workers and businesses, quits, things like that, broadly show a much cooler labor market than we had in 2019.
It's still quite gradually cooling.
So we keep an eye on that.
Inflation.
We see that story as still broadly on track, and I'll tell you why.
We've made a great deal of progress.
12 -month core inflation, as I mentioned, through November is estimated at 2 .8%, down from a high of 5 .6%.
But 12 -month inflation has actually been moving sideways as we are lapping the very low readings of late last year.
Housing services inflation actually is steadily coming down now, albeit at a slower pace than we might like, but it has now come down substantially.
You asked about 2025.
I think that the slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both the higher inflation readings we've had this year and the expectation that inflation will be higher.
You saw in the SEP that risks and uncertainty around inflation we see as higher.
Nonetheless, we see ourselves as still on track to continue to cut.
I think the actual cuts that we make next year will not be Because of anything we wrote down today, we're going to react to data.
That's just the general sense of what the committee thinks is likely to be appropriate.
Sorry, just one quick follow -up.
Why, I guess, would you make those cuts?
Like, what would be the trigger to cut?
To cut further after this point, I would say it this way.
We've reduced our policy rate now by 100 basis points.
We're significantly closer to neutral.
At 4 .3 % and change, we believe policy is still meaningfully restrictive.
But as for additional cuts, we're going to be looking for further progress on inflation as well as continued strength in the labor market.
And as long as the economy and the labor market are solid, we can be cautious as we consider further cuts.
And all of that is reflected, to your question, in the December SEP, which shows a median forecast of down two cuts next year compared to four in September.
Thanks for the opportunity to ask your question.
So this does seem similar to the dynamic in 2016 during the last transition to a Trump administration where the committee saw slightly tighter policy in part in expected anticipation of the fiscal policy stance that was seen evolving over the year.
Some of it was a data mark -to -market exercise and some of it was anticipation of fiscal.
What's the split on this one?
How much of this was accounting for inflation data?
I'd say I'd point to five or six things.
Let me start by saying that we think the economy is in a really good place and we think policy is in a really good place.
Let's remember that the economy is growing 2 .5 % this year, that inflation has come down by 50 % from 5 .6 % to 2 .6%.
Headline inflation is 2 .5 % on a 12 -month basis.
We're actually in a really Good starting place here.
But since, you know, so what's really driving the slower rate cut path?
First thing is growth is stronger, right?
The economy grew faster in the second half of 2024 so far than we had expected and is expected to be above our expectations in September next year as well.
Unemployment is lower.
And in the SEP, you'll see that participants think that the downside risks are less and uncertainty is less.
So that's more strength, right?
Inflation is higher, as we talked about.
Inflation is higher this year.
It's also higher in the forecast next year.
I'd also point out that we're closer to the neutral rate, which is another reason to be cautious about further moves.
But then getting to your point, There's also uncertainty.
Uncertainty around inflation, I pointed out, is actually higher.
It's also, in the case of some people, the way I would say it is this.
Some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts at this meeting and said so in the meeting.
Some people said they didn't do so.
And some people didn't say whether they did or not.
So we have people making a bunch of different approaches to that.
But some did identify policy uncertainty as one of the reasons for their writing down more uncertainty around inflation.
And the point about uncertainty is it's kind of common sense thinking that when the path is uncertain, you go a little bit slower.
It's not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture.
You just slow down.
And so that may have affected some of the people.
But as I said, there's a range of approaches on the committee.
If I could follow up on that, you mentioned the risk and uncertainty indexes toward the back of the document.
The upside risk to inflation jumped quite substantially.
The only thing really that's happened, you mentioned that the disinflationary story remains intact.
Yet the risk weighting has jumped to the upside.
The only real thing that's happened is November 5th in the meantime.
Is it fair to say that that's what's driving the higher sense of upside risk on inflation?
We're good to go.
Progress on inflation, as I mentioned, as we think about further cuts, we're going to be looking for progress on inflation.
We have been moving sideways on 12 -month inflation as the 12 -month window moves.
That's in part because inflation was very, very low measured in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Nonetheless, as we go forward, we're going to want to be seeing further progress on bringing inflation down and keeping a solid labor market.
Chris?
Thank you.
Chris Rugeber at Associated Press.
Thanks for taking the question.
In September 2018, the Fed staff in the Tealbook discussed a policy of looking through any new tariffs as long as there were one -time increases and inflation expectations remained anchored.
Could you comment on if that analysis remains effective and any other thinking on tariffs generally that you can share?
So I do think that the September 2018 Tealbook alternative simulations are a good place to start.
I happen to have brought them here with me today.
I'm sure you have them too.
They're a good starting point.
And I would just say, you know, it's six years old analysis, but nonetheless, this is still, I think, the right questions to ask.
And, you know, there were two simulations.
One was...
One was seeing through, one was not.
There's some language in the see -through paragraph that considers situations in which it might be appropriate to see through inflation and then names some conditions in which it might not be.
In any case, this is not a question that's in front of us right now.
We won't face that question.
We don't know when we'll face that question.
What the committee is doing now is...
Is discussing pathways and understanding, again, the ways in which tariffs can affect inflation in the economy and how to think about that.
So we've done a good bit of work, all of us have, each of us has, and it puts us in position when we finally do see what the actual policies are to make a more...
More careful, thoughtful assessment of what might be the appropriate policy response.
Great.
And just a quick follow -up.
Given the recent bout of inflation that we've been through with consumers seeing how prices can rise and businesses seeing that they can raise prices at least for some time,
does that make it a little bit riskier to look through tariffs?
Do you feel you have to respond more quickly to inflation threats given what we've seen in the past few years?
The main thing is, and this is also a point in these alternative simulations, is there are just many, many factors that go into how much tariffs will even go into consumer inflation, how persistent will that be.
So we just don't know really very much at all about the actual policies, so it's very premature to try to make...
Any kind of conclusion.
We don't know what will be tariffed from what countries for how long, in what size.
We don't know whether there will be retaliatory tariffs.
We don't know what the transmission of any of that will be into consumer prices.
To your point as well, I wouldn't say that we know whether the last episode is or is not a good model for what happened.
You pointed out we've just been through a period of high inflation.
We've just gotten through that period.
That's a difference.
There was also quite a bit of diversion of trade away from China to other countries since that may have effects.
I don't know.
I just think we need to take our time, not rush, and make a very careful assessment, but only when we've actually seen what the policies are and how they're implemented.
And we're just not at that stage.
We're at the stage of doing what other forecasters are doing, which is kind of thinking about these questions, but not trying to get to definitive answers for some time.
Nick.
Nick Tamaros of the Wall Street Journal.
Chair Powell, to make sure I understand, participants today revised up their core PCE inflation projection for 25 so that the central tendency runs from 2 .5 to 2 .7%.
And as Howard noted earlier, most of the committee sees the risks to those projections to the upside.
So if inflation only declines next year from 2 .8 to 2 .5 to 2 .7, what would compel the committee to be cutting in that situation?
Let me find these numbers.
So we have core inflation coming down to 2 .5 next year.
That would be significant progress.
You see a slower path.
I think that does take on board that we want to see real progress.
But we'd be seeing meaningful progress to get inflation down to that level.
That wouldn't be all the way to 2%, but that would be better than this year.
This year will be 2 .8 or 2 .9.
That would be meaningful.
We also have to think about the labor market.
And while we have the labor market forecast as being in good shape, we are also mindful that it is still out there very gradually cooling, so far in an orderly, gradual way.
But it's also something we need to keep our eye on.
I guess if I could follow up.
If somebody looked at these projections and also the insertion of the extent and timing language in the statement, which has been used at times in the past, When the committee thinks maybe it's going to be on hold for a while, and they said, gee, this looks like it could be the last rate cut for some time,
would they be mistaken to infer that?
So that's not any decision that we've made at all.
Let me explain extent and timing.
So the sense of that wording is to make clear that if the economy does evolve about as anticipated, we're at a point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace.
Of rate cuts.
So extent, that just relates to how much further we can reduce our policy rate consistent with getting to a neutral stance.
Clearly that distance has shrunk by 100 basis points.
So it's significantly smaller.
So that's the extent question.
And again, we're going to be looking for further progress on inflation as well as a strong labor market to make those cuts.
Timing just suggests again that we're at a place where we assuming the economy develops as expected.
We're at or near a level that will make it appropriate to slow the pace of adjustment.
So that's what we mean by that.
We're not trying to make decisions about the longer run.
We're trying to make sensible policy as we go.
And I just would emphasize the uncertainty, which is just a function of the fact that we expect significant policy changes.
There's nothing really unusual about that.
I think we need to see what they are and see what the effects they will have.
We'll have a much clearer picture, I think.
You know, when that happens.
Michael McKee from Bloomberg Radio and Television.
Even though you've cut rates by 100 basis points this year, we haven't seen much change in mortgages, auto loan rates, or credit card rates.
You say you're significantly restrictive.
Are you running a risk that the markets are fighting against you and the economy could be more at risk of a slowdown than you anticipate?
CHAIR POWELL.
The rates that you talked about are really longer -run rates, and they are affected to some extent by Fed policy, but they're also affected by many other things.
And longer rates have actually gone up quite a bit since September, as you well know, and those are the things that drive, for example, mortgage rates more than short -term rates do.
We look at that, but we look at all financial conditions and then we look at what's happening in the economy.
So what we see happening in the economy, again, is most forecasters have been calling for a slowdown in growth for a very long time and it keeps not happening.
So we're now well into another year of growth that looks like it might be 2 .5%.
Second and third quarters were right about at the same level.
So the U .S. economy is just performing very, very well, substantially better than Our global peer group.
There's no reason to think a downturn is any more likely than it usually is.
The outlook is pretty bright for our economy.
We have to stay on task, though, and continue to have restrictive policies so that we can get inflation down to 2%.
We're also going to be looking out for the labor market.
We want to keep the labor market pretty close to where it is.
We're pretty close to estimates of the natural rate of unemployment.
Job creation is a little below the level that would keep it there, but nonetheless close.
And so that's what our policy is trying to achieve.
If I could follow up by asking about your formulation for beginning rate cuts included the phrase we need to have confidence that inflation is moving down towards our target.
Given the fact that you've raised your forecast for next year, do you have confidence or are you uncertain?
About the path of inflation going forward.
Confidence was our test for raising rates.
Look at the broader sweep.
We've made just a great deal of progress.
We're well into the twos in core inflation and around two and a half or even lower than that we have been for headline inflation.
I would say I'm confident that inflation has come down a great deal and I'm confident in the story.
Thank you.
You know, new leases that turn over.
Not new tenants, but new leases.
Market rents is new leases.
So that's happening.
That process is ongoing pretty much as we expect.
Goods inflation, which is another big piece of it, has returned right to the range where it was before the pandemic.
Just for some months this year, it kind of moved up in a bumpy way because of used cars and things like that.
But we think overall that should...
Generally be in the range it was in.
That leaves non -housing services and market -based non -housing services are in good shape.
It's non -market services and those are services that are imputed rather than measured directly and we think they don't really tell us much about the tightness in the economy.
They don't really reflect that.
I mean a good example is financial services which is really done off of asset prices.
So that's how that inflation works.
So the overall picture, the story of why inflation should be coming down, is still intact, in particular the labor market.
Look at the labor market.
It is cooler by so many measures now, modestly cooler than it was in 2019, a year when inflation was well under 2%.
So it's not a source of inflationary pressures, not to say there aren't regional and particular professions where labor is tight.
But overall, you're not getting inflationary impulses of any significance from the labor market.
So what's the story?
The story is still just we're unwinding from these large shocks that the economy got in 2021 and 22 in, for example, housing services, and now also in insurance in particular.
Colby.
Thank you.
Colby Smith with the Financial Times.
So the unemployment rate as of November, while still very low, is within spitting distance of the level that generated a lot of concern about the labor market over the summer in the lead up to the 50 basis point cut in September.
Hiring has also narrowed to just a handful of sectors.
But now the committee appears comfortable skipping cuts at upcoming meetings.
So what has changed about the committee's assessment of the risks confronting the labor market?
Is there just less concern now on that front?
Or is it just about The unemployment rate is now the same as it was in July, 4 .2%.
It's moved up and down, but it's now the same as July.
And job creation is lower than it has been, but it's not declining.
It's steady at a level which...
As I pointed out a couple of times, this is actually below the level that would hold the unemployment rate constant, but it's not so far below.
So you might, if we have the break -even level right, and if job creation continues at that level, In a way that
really raises concerns.
You pointed out participants in the FOMC really thought that the risks and uncertainty had improved relative to the labor market.
And it's because things have just gotten a little bit better.
It doesn't, you know, the unemployment rate flattened, things like that.
Nonetheless, you know, we're watching it closely.
If the idea, though, is that no additional kind of softening in the labor market is welcome here, what's to prevent that from happening if rates are still restrictive?
What I said is we don't think we need Further softening to get to 2 % inflation.
That's what I'm saying.
Not that it's not welcome.
We don't need it, we don't think.
If you had a situation where inflation is moving around by a tenth every few months, we'd have to weigh that against the fact that inflation has, in recent months, been moving sideways in the 12 -month window.
Steve.
Mr. Chairman, I did not hear you use the word recalibration today.
And I'm just wondering if the recalibration phase is over and what you might...
We're not renaming the phase yet, but we may get around to that.
But no, I would say we are, though, in a new phase in the process, as I said.
And that's just because we've reduced our policy rate by 100 basis points.
We're significantly closer to neutral.
We still think where we are is meaningfully restrictive.
And I think from this point forward, it's appropriate to move cautiously and look for progress on inflation.
We've done a lot to support economic activity by cutting 100 basis points.
And that's a good thing.
I think I support the decision, and I think it was the right decision to make.
I think from now, we are in a place where the risks really are in balance, and we need to see progress on inflation.
And that's how we're thinking about it.
So it is kind of a new thing.
We moved pretty quickly to get to here, and I think going forward, obviously we're going to be moving slower, which is consistent with the SEP.
I wonder if I could follow up and ask you how much you or the committee... Are looking through some of the high numbers we've had in the recent inflation numbers, for example, cars being up maybe because of the hurricanes, eggs because of the avian flu, that kind of stuff,
and then looking forward perhaps to housing inflation coming down as it did in the recent report?
So we always try to be careful about not throwing out the numbers we don't like.
It's just an occupational hazard.
Is to look, oh, those high months are wrong.
What about the low months?
We have a very low month, potentially, in November.
It's estimated by many to be in the mid -teens for core PCE.
So that could be idiosyncratically low.
We try to look at not just a couple or three months.
Our position shouldn't change based on two or three months of good or bad data.
We have a long string now of inflation coming down gradually over time.
As I mentioned, I think this 12 -month headline is 2 .5, 12 -month core is 2 .8.
That's way better than we were.
We still have some work to do, though, is how we're looking at it, and we need policy to remain restrictive to get that work done, we think.
Neil?
Thanks, Chair Powell.
Neil Irwin from Axios.
Financial markets have been very buoyant really all year.
Is the committee comfortable with where financial conditions are, or do you see a risk that looseness in financial conditions could undermine progress on your inflation target?
So we do look carefully at financial conditions, of course.
That's part of what we do.
But, you know, what we really look carefully at is the performance of our goal variables and how are we affecting the economy.
So what we've seen over the course of Just take the last year.
We've seen inflation, well, over the last couple of years come down a lot.
We've seen the labor market cool off quite a bit.
That suggests that our policy is restrictive.
We can also look more directly at the parts of the economy that are affected by, that are interest sensitive, like particularly housing.
Housing activity is very low, and that's...
So if I may, speaking of assets that have been buoyant, do you see any value or benefit in the U .S. government building a reserve of Bitcoin?
So, you know, we're not allowed to own Bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve Act says what we can own and we're not looking for a law change.
That's the kind of thing for Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change at the Fed.
Andrew.
Happy holidays, Mr. Chairman.
Thanks for taking our questions.
I was wondering if you are satisfied with the way 2024 is ending, if you're confident that we've avoided the recession that forecasters were predicting as inevitable a couple years ago.
I think it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession.
I think growth this year has been solid.
It really has.
PDFP, private domestic final purchases, which we think is the best indicator of private demand, is looking to come in around 3 % this year.
This is a really good number.
Again, the U .S. economy has just been remarkable.
In these international meetings that I attend, this has been the story, how well the U .S. is doing.
If you look around the world, there's just a lot of slow growth and continuous struggle with inflation.
I feel very good about where the economy is and the performance of the economy, and we want to keep that going.
The other thing I just wanted to ask about was the You guys have noted that the unemployment rate is still low.
However, employment rates have fallen rather quickly.
The prime age employment rate has fell by about half a point, half a percent, rather, recently.
The question, I guess, is do you think there's maybe more downside momentum in the labor market than the unemployment rate alone is signaling?
I don't think so, no.
I think overall, if you look at it, prime age participation is still very high.
What's going on in the labor market is that the hiring rate is low.
So if you have a job, you're doing very well, and layoffs are very low, right?
So people are not losing their jobs in large numbers, unusually large numbers.
If you are looking for a job, though, the hiring rate is low, and that's a signal of lower demand.
It has come down.
So we look for signs like that, and that's clearly a sign of further softening.
I didn't mention it earlier.
I think you can see an ongoing gradual softening in the labor market.
Again, not something we need to see to get 2 % inflation.
And that's part of the reason that explains why we moved ahead today with the action, with an additional cut.
But you take a step back, the level of unemployment is very low.
Again, participation is high.
Wages are at a healthy and ever more sustainable level.
Amira.
Thank you.
Amira Mokwe from Bloomberg News.
I just want to put a finer point on the labor market.
Can you keep the labor market this way, in the strong position that you have described, without further cuts?
In other words, do you still view the labor market as needing support to protect against a further cooling?
You know, we can't know that with any tremendous certainty.
I will say that we think that our policy balances the risks.
We think the risks are roughly in balance as between the two mandates.
And we think the labor market is in solid shape.
And when I say it's softening or cooling, it's a very gradual process.
You know, job creations are meaningfully positive.
Wages are, you know, if anything, a little still a bit above.
What would be sustainable if productivity were to revert to its longer -run trend?
If you take into account the high productivity readings we've had, then wages are already at a sustainable level relative to 2 % inflation.
So, again, I don't want to overstate the downside in the labor market because the downsides clearly appear to have diminished.
Nonetheless, it's one of our mandate goals.
Elizabeth.
Thanks so much, Chair Powell.
Elizabeth Schulze from ABC News.
As you've noted, the Fed is now forecasting higher inflation next year.
High prices are still a burden for so many households right now.
Why do you think it is that inflation is proving to be more stubborn than you'd expected?
You know, it breaks down into a long answer, if you want, but it just has been a little bit more stubborn.
I think if you go back two or three years, many people were saying that to get this far down, we would have had to have had a deep recession and, you know, high unemployment by now.
Well, that has not been the case.
So, you know, the path down has actually been much better than many predicted.
Managed to have the unemployment rate remain essentially at its longer -run natural rate while inflation has come down from, you know, core PCE inflation has come down from 5 .6 % to 2 .8 % on a 12 -month basis.
So that's a pretty good outcome.
Why hasn't it come down?
One reason is that just a technical issue around the way we calculate housing services.
And that process has been slower than market rents are showing up more slowly in that measure than we might have thought two years ago.
So that's part of it.
I think there are other parts of the story.
But what I think people are feeling right now is the effect of high prices, not high inflation.
So we understand very well that prices went up by a great deal.
And people really feel that.
And it's prices of food and transportation and heating your home and things like that.
So there's tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global.
This was everywhere in all the advanced economies at the same time.
So now we have inflation itself is way down, but people are still feeling high prices.
And that is really what people are feeling.
The best we can do for them, and that's who we work for. is to get inflation back down to its target and keep it there so that people are earning big, real wage increases so that their wages are going up,
their compensation is going up faster than inflation year upon year upon year, and that's what will restore people's good feeling about the economy.
That's what it will take, and that's what we're aiming for.
And as we look ahead to next year, what do you see as the biggest challenge to the economy under the next administration?
I feel very good about where the economy is.
Honestly, I'm very optimistic about the economy.
We're in a really good place.
Our policy is in a really good place.
I expect another good year next year.
Thanks, Chair Powell, for doing the questions.
Edward Lawrence from Fox Business.
So you say that we're closer to the neutral rate.
What percent do you see, and the committee believes, where is that neutral rate?
So I'll say a couple things.
First of all, the thing we write down in the Summary of Economic Projections is the longer -run neutral rate, which is the neutral rate at a time when supply and demand are in balance, the full economy is in balance, and no shocks are hitting the economy.
That is not where we are right now.
When we're making monetary policy at the Fed, that's not the question we're asking.
So you can't do a straight read between those longer -run numbers that we write down and what we think the appropriate policy should be.
So basically, at any given time, various shocks are hitting the economy.
So what we're doing in real time is we're looking at...
Our policy stance, and we're looking at the way it's hitting the economy, and particularly we look at the effects it's having as we try to move the economy toward maximum employment and price stability.
And the answer can be there are things that affect the economy that are lasting but not permanent.
And the ones that are permanent are the ones that would be in our star.
The ones that could be lasting but nonetheless go away over time, they could actually affect what's sort of technically the appropriate neutral stance.
In near term.
So we're looking at that.
We don't know exactly where it is, but as I like to say, we know it by its works.
And I think what we know for sure is that we're 100 basis points closer to it right now.
There are many estimates of where that might be, and we know we're a lot closer to it.
And I think we're in a good place, but I think from here...
It's a new phase, and we're going to be cautious about further cuts.
But I think the markets are looking for a little more clarity.
I mean, I've heard estimates from 2 .9 % to 4%.
I think the markets would like to see a little more clarity about a year out, 18 months out, as to where that goalpost, for lack of a better term, is, because at the moment it looks big.
Yeah, I mean, honestly, there are...
You just have to be open to...
You know, the empirical data that are coming in and also how it's affecting the outlook.
And it's not made any easier by the fact that, you know, that our policy works with long and variable legs.
Nonetheless, that is the job we have.
And so we're, I think we need, it's appropriate for us now to proceed cautiously now that we're 100 basis points closer to neutral.
And we'll do so.
Meanwhile, the economy seems to be in good shape.
And these cuts will certainly help to support economic activity and the labor market while we can still make progress on inflation because policy is still meaningfully restrictive.
Victoria.
Hi.
Victoria Guido with Politico.
I just wanted to make sure I understood what you were saying at the beginning about inflation.
Are you saying that progress on core PCE counts as progress on inflation even if headline inflation...
And then also, since that's what's projected in the SEP, I was wondering, what accounts for that?
Why do you all see core PC going down and potentially headline inflation ticking up?
So, as I imagine you know, the goal overall is headline inflation because that's what people experience.
People don't experience core inflation.
They experience inflation, and that includes food and energy costs.
So that's the overall goal.
But as we know, headline inflation contains energy and food, and those prices can fluctuate for reasons that are not related to tightness in the economy and therefore are not really good predictors of future inflation.
So it turns out that core inflation is a better predictor of overall inflation.
Why do you all see core going down but headline potentially taking up?
Yeah, so headline can, again, it can be affected by energy prices and food prices.
So there will be things in the headline forecast that are to do with forecasts of energy prices, whereas core will be, if you look at core going out a full year,
then it'll be much more driven by things like tightness in the economy.
So that's why the two can go in different directions.
Headline has been lower.
Do geopolitical risks factor in at all to how you're thinking about energy prices?
Thank you.
Thank you.
But we are certainly at a time of elevated geopolitical turmoil, and it remains a risk.
Kelly.
Thanks, Chair Powell.
Kelly O 'Grady from CBS News.
I want to go back to something that you said a minute ago, that wage growth is outpacing inflation now.
It wasn't the case for some time, of course.
It's partly why Americans haven't felt much relief in their wallets from prices yet.
But with inflation ticking up, how worried are you the progress in closing that gap could go away?
Yeah, so inflation, again, we don't overreact to a couple of months of higher readings or a couple months of lower readings.
And what we had was, we had four months of really nice readings and then September and October were higher, but then November is much lower.
So I don't really think the public is experiencing that as a surprising upside risk to inflation.
I think inflation is much lower.
What the public is feeling, and they're right about it, is that the price level went up because of the past inflation, and it's going to take some time for real wages to recover over a period of years in which your real compensation is growing.
In other words, your compensation is growing meaningfully faster than inflation.
That's exactly the kind of economy we have now.
And we just want to hold on to it.
That process will probably take some years, but that's what's going on right now.
And I don't think that a couple of months of higher inflation really signal anything of the nature you're suggesting.
And just one follow -up.
Let's look more long -term.
You previously predicted hitting the 2 % inflation target in 2026.
It's now been pushed out to 2027.
You said you're focused on enabling further progress on inflation.
That's not necessarily progress in the right direction.
Are you confident that target isn't going to move further out?
We're talking about when you're projecting the economy three years out, two years out, you're talking about high uncertainty.
Very high uncertainty.
You know, we really, at that point, it's not possible to confidently predict where the economy is going to be in three years.
So what we're doing is we're looking at what's happening now and we're kind of projecting that the same kinds of things are happening.
So we keep a strong labor market, housing services inflation comes down, goods and services, goods inflation settles down, and, you know, non -market services.
Return to their prior level.
All of those things should happen over time.
And those pieces come together.
There's every reason to think that they will.
The timing of it is highly uncertain.
But you're not wrong, though, that it's been a bit frustrating because while we've made progress, it has been slower than we had hoped.
Nonetheless, we're still on track.
And I think if two years ago you'd said we were at 4 .2 % unemployment and 2 .8 % inflation, People would say, I'll take that.
That's a pretty good interim place to be.
Job's not done, but I think we're feeling good about where we are and where we're headed.
Nancy, for the last question.
Hi, Chair Powell.
Nancy Marshall -Genzer from Marketplace.
You said a couple times inflation has been moving sideways.
It appears to be settling in around 2 .5%.
Do you think the Fed is just going to have to settle for that and accept that you're not going to get to your 2 % target?
No, we're not going to settle for that.
I think we certainly have every intention and expectations that we'll get inflation back sustainably to 2%.
And I am confident we will achieve that.
It has taken longer, but we are making progress.
We have made a great deal of progress, and we'll continue to do so.
And get back to 2 % inflation.
That's what we owe the public, and we're committed to achieving it.
In that case, can you rule out a rate hike next year?
You don't rule things completely in or out in this world.
That doesn't appear to be a likely outcome.
I think we're at 4 .3%.
That's meaningfully restrictive.
I think it's a well -calibrated rate for us to continue to make progress on inflation while keeping a strong labor market.
So, thank you very much.
And to you.
We're good to go.
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