The Charlie Kirk Show - JUDGMENT DAY 2025: The Election Results Stream

Nov. 5, 2025 - The Charlie Kirk Show

03:21:50

JUDGMENT DAY 2025: The Election Results Stream

Jack, Andrew, Blake, Tyler, and Cliff monitor election results from Virginia, New  Jersey, NYC, and the rest of America. In a night of tough results, they lay out the lessons learned and where to look in the year to come. Watch every episode ad-free on members.charliekirk.com!    Get new merch at charliekirkstore.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Time	Text
	My name is Charlie Kirk.
	I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic.
	My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth.
	If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable.
	But if the most important thing is doing good, you'll end up purposeful.
	College is a scam, everybody.
	You got to stop sending your kids to college.
	You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible.
	Go start a Turning Point USA college chapter.
	Go start a Turning Point USA high school chapter.
	Go find out how your church can get involved.
	Sign up and become an activist.
	I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade.
	Most important decision I ever made in my life.
	And I encourage you to do the same.
	Here I am, Lord Museman.
	Buckle up, everybody.
	Here we go.
	The Charlie Kirk Show is proudly sponsored by Preserve Gold, the leading gold and silver experts and the only precious metals company I recommend to my family, friends, and viewers.
	All right, folks, we are back for the one-year anniversary of the Election Night Super Stream, the historic Election Night Super Stream of 2024.
	Now, technically, tomorrow night is the official one year because Election Day kind of shifts around.
	So this year, Election Night is the fourth.
	Last year, Election Night was the fifth.
	And of course, it was one year ago today that Charlie Kirk was sitting right here with that incredible historic video, which we play over and over again.
	Erica running in, hugging him, embracing him, and Charlie giving thanks to God.
	And Charlie's not here tonight, folks.
	And we all know why.
	We all know why that is.
	But for those of us who are still here, we remember that Charlie Kirk always loved the Election Night Super Streams.
	This was his Super Bowl, his World Series, his Stanley Cup all rode up and won.
	So what have we done?
	We've decided to get the band back together.
	And so the rest of us, we are all here tonight.
	Charlie Kirk, of course, on assignment with God.
	We've got Andrew Colvet.
	Here, here.
	Blake Neff.
	Tyler Boyer.
	What's up, Jack?
	My favorite is Blake's.
	Yeah, Blake, just with a thumbs up.
	And joining us remote, who was also here one year ago on that stream, Cliff Maloney.
	What's up, Cliff?
	Yo, yo.
	Good to see y'all.
	So guys, what are we doing?
	What are we feeling?
	We've got a lot of Eastern Pennsylvania out here, not a whole lot of Western Pennsylvania.
	Yeah, well, Noah for Mike is out in Yinserland and Sheetsland, Steelers country, Pennsylvania.
	So we may have to get Yoah for Micah of Turning Point Action up at some point.
	He is our senior Pennsylvania field rep. But Tyler, that's actually something to point out.
	Last year, I think we only had one Pennsylvania field rep for turning point action.
	Now there's a whole team.
	Yeah, we've got a whole team.
	And then we had, I mean, if we remember, again, crank back the clock.
	I don't know if we have the clip from last year.
	I feel like it'd be worthwhile to just watch replay back the good vibes to start the night.
	Well, they were, yeah, they played the B-roll.
	But guys, let's play the clip in its entirety.
	Let's play it the right way.
	Fox News decides Donald Trump is president of the United States.
	We've got our republic back, folks.
	Let's go.
	There it is.
	Everybody should remember this moment.
	Look, I'm going to echo Charlie from earlier.
	Remember where you were when this happened.
	Remember where you were when you realized that the uniparty and all these, you know, just the establishment, you said it's time to actually participate.
	And look what you guys have done.
	And if anyone deserves to get tears in his eyes, it's Charlie.
	I think we all agree.
	I think Erica was just one of those onions or something in the break room.
	No one has worked harder than Charlie.
	We got to hear some words here from you, Charlie.
	You put all this together, my man.
	Let's hear it.
	I am just humbled by God.
	It's all good.
	It's all good.
	God alone.
	God alone.
	Decision desk has it.
	Pennsylvania.
	It's beginning.
	It's crazy that that was one year ago.
	300 years ago.
	It feels like that's geez.
	It feels like even before we get into it, can we just take a moment to talk about that?
	Like, I mean, that, Blake, what's it like watching that one year later after everything that's happened?
	It was quite the night.
	It was man, you're going to make me get this thousand-yard stare.
	A lot has happened since then.
	It really is.
	I always think back when I first started working at Fox, I remember a guy who'd been there longer said, you know, before Trump was a guy, like we'd have to really make up stuff to cover.
	You know, that's why they'd have to be like, well, let's get an update on Natalie Holloway here because, you know, there'd just be days, there'd be weeks where nothing super interesting was going on.
	But really, for the last decade, solid, it has truly been very eventful times, constant motion, constant flux, constant change.
	And so it feels incredible that it was a year ago.
	And yet, also, a lot happened in that year in the transition, in the early days of the admin, and just in the months since.
	And a lot's happening up to this day.
	Even today, there's a bunch of stories that aren't this election that are unfolding.
	You have the shutdown, you have SNAP, you have the filibuster fight.
	All of those things are happening, even independent of the elections we'll be watching tonight.
	I mean, I'm just going to say it feels like that was 10 years ago.
	Yeah.
	You know, it's interesting.
	I've thought about this a lot.
	I was with Charlie in the studio, actually, in the front building on January 6th, 2021, when everything was unfolding.
	And we were doing the show together.
	So, however long ago that was now, I guess it was 45 years.
	Almost five.
	And I feel like about five lifetimes have passed since that moment because what that spun off was this mad dash to figure out how to beat them.
	Right?
	We had to figure out ballot chasing.
	We had to figure out the app.
	We got a false start in 2022.
	We took a lot of incoming because, you know, Carrie Lake did not win, and everybody blamed us.
	And we actually didn't even endorse in the primary there.
	We tried to let the basement.
	We had not put any boots on the ground.
	We had no money.
	We had no money for the boots on the ground.
	Less than four years ago, so this is 2022 in Arizona.
	We're obviously headquartered out of Arizona, but the entire Republican national apparatus had said, we've got this.
	We've got all the bodies on the ground.
	And that was when we had decided that was the election that ultimately between what had happened between 2020 and 2022 was Charlie sat right there and looked us in the eyes and said, we have to build this thing because nobody else is building it.
	Well, to your credit, Tyler, I mean, you looked at Charlie and said, we have to build this thing.
	And candidly, Charlie was like, man, I need another job.
	Like, I need to, you know.
	Yeah.
	Like, I need to say that.
	But I remember also that and then we decided we had to.
	Carrie Lake in 2022 was the moment that we decided, hey, we have to build the app.
	We have to build the ground game.
	The RNC is not going to get behind it.
	And I'll never forget, then we went to war with Ronal McDan and the RNC because they weren't getting serious about the reforms that people like you within the RNC were calling for.
	They wouldn't even acknowledge it at the time.
	And, you know, there's been significant dramatic movement within the yeah, yeah, yeah.
	This is a whole different regime at the RNC.
	Okay, we're not even talking.
	It's like might as well be a whole other organization in most ways.
	But let's let's shout out real quick.
	So we're now up on across multiple platforms.
	So I want to welcome everybody in.
	Welcome in Rumble.
	We're welcoming in YouTube.
	We are up on the Charlie Kirk X account, the Andrew Colvet X account, Human Event.
	We are up on TikTok.
	So thank you for all being here.
	We will continue the legacy of this super stream because all of us know this was Charlie's favorite, you know, favorite work night of the year.
	I said it was Charlie's favorite day of the year earlier.
	People were like, well, what about his birthday?
	Obviously, he did not like his birthday.
	No, I think this was his favorite night.
	At least when it went well.
	Dude, it really was his favorite night.
	And by the way, he did the live stream.
	You know, by the way, he was like a general on a field marshaling the troops.
	Like he was boom, boom, boom.
	Okay, let's cut to, let's cut that.
	So we got to keep the pace up in Charlie's honor.
	Absolutely.
	But listen, I just want to spend one last moment memorializing Charlie's that 2022 pivot because that really was the pivot point.
	And that was when Tyler, you and guys like Cliff Maloney, who's on the stream right now, Cliff, you're in New Jersey, though, right?
	You're not in PA.
	Or are you in PA?
	I am in PA right now.
	He's in PA.
	We're jumping back and forth.
	Yeah, jumping back and forth.
	Okay, so, but that's when we partnered with PA Chase, Scott Pressler's group.
	So in Georgia, we were and Charlie, or Charlie dispatched Tyler.
	So Tyler was behind the scenes flying all over the country, building these relationships and partnerships with local GOPs, county GOPs.
	Remember, Tyler, then we did the Vegas event where we invited the hundred most critical counties in the country, the GOPs, to come visit us in Vegas, be a part of an event right ahead of the winter meeting, I believe, of the RNC.
	We got 75 counties represented, plus others, and state GOPs represented.
	We got them all there and absolutely, I think, revolutionized the way that Republicans, I will never forget that event because it revolutionized the way that Republicans and GOP groups around the country looked at elections.
	They said that what you guys are doing at Turning Point, and you're breaking down the data, you're making it actionable for us, is going to change the game, especially in 2024.
	And by the way, all of that came true.
	And it scared the living daylights out of the establishment.
	And the Democrats, by the way.
	And the Democrats.
	I mean, remember, Andrew and Andrew knows this better than anybody because we had how many reporters went that round?
	Oh, man.
	I got so good at the.
	Reporters were just creeping everywhere.
	I had to know your business just as well as you knew your business at Turning Point Action because I was having to defend you.
	And by the way, there were hit pieces.
	Like the establishment was putting out hit pieces on.
	I remember that's where that's I was on stage and remember that there was that like Georgia delegation that was kind of like a little bit anti-Charlie and like I got into it with this one guy.
	Well, a lot of the Georgia delegation was really pro, to be fair.
	No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, yeah.
	Yeah, but there were some.
	I mean, that's how it is.
	That's how it is.
	There were some Kemp people that were there.
	That's what they got into.
	Remember, that was the, yeah, I remember that went pretty viral.
	That was not viral.
	Yeah, but that was the big fight.
	No, but no, but we're up and you know, so welcoming everyone.
	And Blake, you mentioned something that you wanted to shout out that we will be reading.
	Yeah, you know, so if you send in, if you send in live chats on Rumble or YouTube, I'll be checking them.
	I will be making sure we read them if you donate.
	So we'll both freedom at Charlie Kirkland.
	And email us at freedom at charliekirk.com.
	We already got one from Matt just saying, thank you for doing this, fellas.
	Thank you for doing this.
	Charlie would be proud of you all.
	Keep up the good work.
	Thank you, Matt.
	Madeline says.
	Yeah, Madeline says Election Night Charlie video that we played at the beginning.
	Lifetimes have passed since last year, but many lifetimes to go.
	Fight, fight, fight.
	You're all doing God's work.
	Thank you.
	Fight, fight, fight.
	That would be the most important thing.
	You know, we've been talking.
	Tonight is tough races.
	Tonight is going to be tough elections.
	We're in blue states primarily and something of a blue up.
	We might take a good number of losses tonight, but Charlie would be here regardless.
	He would emphasize the importance of fighting regardless, both in this race and in the races to come.
	And I want to address something that's like somehow become like an internet thing where people are saying don't vote or whatever.
	There's like a whole back of which is just like amazing to me.
	No, Charlie would be a thousand.
	Cernovich tweeted this and I quote tweeted him.
	You know, this was like his Super Bowl.
	Election nights were his Super Bowl.
	Absolutely, election night was his Super Bowl.
	He would have been absolutely begging, pleading, screaming from the top of his lungs, vote, vote, vote, fight, fight, fight, never surrender.
	We are fighting on their terrain.
	So I want everybody to just put that, what Blake just said in your brain.
	This is New Jersey.
	That's a deep blue state.
	We are within scratching distance of pulling out a miracle in that state.
	We still have the AG race in Virginia.
	So let's be getting our numbers ready to go, teams, on these races.
	We have the three Supreme Court Virginia closes in 12 minutes.
	12 minutes.
	And Cliff, give us, how are we looking on?
	I mean, give us an odds, right?
	How are we looking on the three no-retention votes on the state Supreme Court justices in PA?
	I know it's an uphill battle, but like, is there hope on one?
	Maybe not all three.
	What's the status?
	Yeah, so let's chat PA for a little bit.
	First off, I want to set expectations and make sure that they're in line with reality.
	In the history of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only one state Supreme Court justice has not been retained.
	So we look at this race as if we pull off one of these, not only is it a miracle, but it would really be a redefining of kind of the electorate in Pennsylvania.
	So that being said, the two races that I'm really interested in are the Superior and Commonwealth Court.
	We've got two of those that are actual candidates on the ballot, Republican versus Democrat.
	And in PA, we really don't have much for returns, right?
	Not at this moment.
	New Jersey, we've seen a lot more numbers coming out, so I'm happy to dive in on that and give some predictions.
	But right now, it's those two statewide judicial races, and then obviously all the permanent infrastructure that we're building across Pennsylvania.
	If you guys are okay with me jumping the jersey, I'd love to share some of the numbers we're looking at.
	Yeah, actually, Cliff, you know, I realized when we were going around the horn, we didn't really give you a chance to jump in.
	You were here on the stream with us.
	You're in that now is your voice in that now immortalized video of Charlie and Erica.
	Just give us a minute on how it feels on the one-year anniversary of that.
	Yeah, well, I'm with you.
	I mean, it feels like it was a decade ago.
	It really does.
	You know, I feel like there's been lifetimes that have passed, crazy things, obviously, that have happened.
	But every time you see that clip, I mean, the special thing about that clip is not just Charlie getting upset, not just Erica coming into the room to embrace him, but it's really the culmination of all of the work that all of us have done for a decade, you know, for longer, right?
	It was kind of, I mean, listen, I don't want to get sensationalist, but I will say this.
	I mean, a lot of us think that 2024, if Kamala Harris would have won that election, we would have lost the Republic.
	Now, I'm not somebody that says that about every election being the most important election.
	Mitt Romney versus Obama was not the most important election in our lifetimes.
	I think 2024 was different.
	And I think every time I watch that clip, I'm reminded about that moment, how much it meant to all of us, how much it meant to Charlie, how much it meant to the entire movement about the work we were putting in actually paying off.
	And so that's my reaction to that.
	The other thing I want to give Tyler and the whole team credit for is that alternative RNC event in Las Vegas.
	I don't think people realize just how significant that was in switching up the establishment leadership and leading to Rana, kind of seeing her way out.
	Nobody does that, guys.
	Nobody challenges the GOP establishment.
	Nobody actually challenges them and wins.
	Turning point's one of the only groups that pulls that off.
	It's why I'm so impressed.
	But that event, people might not even have heard that it went on.
	It was a seismic shift in the future of the GOP.
	And I don't think that we should, you know, fail to give it the credit that it deserves to changing the trajectory of the country.
	Amen.
	I totally agree with that.
	And candidly, to my ever-loving shame, I didn't even realize it until we sat down here for the stream.
	And we're kind of like playing back the last few years because everything, like you said, Cliff, there's been lifetimes that have passed.
	And I remember when Charlie decided to rip off that tweet heard around the world because Rana came after him.
	He totally ripped the bandaid, went absolutely directly after her.
	And then it was like, well, now that we did that, we're going to follow through big time.
	We're going to do this Vegas event.
	We're going to absolutely barnstorm the country and go hard.
	We're going to pour real resources into this.
	We're going to fundraise for this.
	People don't understand.
	When you've got so much over on a C3 with Turning Point USA, and you got people focused on fundraising for that and growing the chapter network and all that stuff, to then pivot and say, hey, we're going to launch this C4 and really in earnest, it was already launched, but to really build resources behind that, the amount of resources and focus and energy, what you're asking, what you're embracing at that moment of what your future life is going to look like, it's basically like you don't stop.
	You never sleep.
	You don't stop.
	There's no weekends anymore.
	There's no like any of that stuff.
	And so we were biting off a lot, but it was absolute pure follow through from Charlie and the team.
	And Tyler, I know you're reviewing numbers here, but like, please don't miss this.
	You deserve a ton, a ton of credit for how much work you did in that season, too.
	Because people don't realize this, but Tyler just about burned himself out and ran himself into the ground.
	Pretty sure you burned out a few thyroid glands as well.
	Burned out a few thyroid glands.
	You're one thyroid gland.
	There you go.
	All right.
	Exhausted.
	What's the right number?
	Tyler, Tyler.
	I like this message from Zachary in the Rumble chat.
	Charlie is one of the smartest guys I've ever seen.
	He just wanted to better people's lives.
	Yeah.
	And he saw that winning elections was a way to do that to hopefully better the lives of all the people in the country.
	Cliff, you did say earlier you wanted to jump over to New Jersey.
	Obviously, look, polls are closing here in about six minutes in Virginia.
	So let's get into it, Cliff.
	What do you think?
	Well, and New Jersey and New Jersey.
	I think New Jersey has no.
	Oh, wait.
	No, I keep getting the time zones, man.
	Another hour.
	Another hour.
	Yeah, one more hour in Jersey.
	So do not leave the line in New Jersey.
	If you're in the line, allowed to leave the line.
	If you're in line by eight in New Jersey, stay in that line.
	You get the vote.
	Get in line, stay in line.
	Cliff Maloney.
	All right, here's a rundown of the numbers.
	Right now, we've got roughly 55,000 Republicans that have a mail-in ballot still.
	We need to get those back in.
	Look, as we said in the beginning, you know, this is about competing when it comes to vote by mail, hopefully improving when it comes to voting in person early, and then obviously having to dominate election day.
	So the vote by mail numbers increased, but not a huge margin.
	The early in-person, you know, we're up about five percentage points.
	But the real rub is this, and me and Tyler were talking about this offline earlier this morning.
	We're down about 300,000 votes when you extrapolate out some of where we think independents are going to fall for all of the early voting or the vote by mail.
	So what does that mean?
	That means that Jack Chitterelli has to win Election Day voters by greater than a 300,000 vote margin.
	Now, in 2021, just four years ago, Jack won by just over 200,000, depending on how you look at the numbers.
	So we need extreme turnout here on Election Day.
	And we've only got, like you said, an hour and five minutes left.
	Here's my projection of where we're going to fall based on the total number of votes that come in for this election.
	If we get 3 to 3.1 million votes, Mikey Sherrill will win.
	I'm talking total votes if you include all the early and then all of the election day.
	If we get north of 3.2, Jack Chitterelli has got a shot because he will have increased so much of the election day turnout from four years ago when we had roughly 2.6 million people vote.
	So that's my prediction.
	2.6 is how many voted four years ago.
	If we get north of 3.2, which means adding 600,000 voters, we think there's a formula here to get him across the finish line.
	But we're not supposed to win this.
	This is New Jersey.
	So we're doing the work, but I want to make sure people are holding that expectation that if we win this, it would be a huge flip.
	And the fact that we're even competitive is something I'm excited about.
	And Cliff, I mean, the numbers basically pan out.
	And we're just going to oversimplify this.
	Essentially, Jack today needed to win by about the election day votes by about 20%.
	So just to give everybody a proper expectation.
	A 20% margin.
	A 20% margin.
	He needed to win today to effectively get to the number that Cliff is talking about.
	Which is, that's a relatively fair number.
	Last election cycle, Murphy won with 1.339 million votes versus Jack's 1.25 million votes.
	So it was a 3% difference, give or take, 115,000 votes, 116,000 votes.
	So it was a really close, I mean, we're talking razor thin as they come.
	Turnout was increased at that point.
	So turnout in 2021 was a 40% turnout out of the electorate.
	To put that in perspective, the prior election in 2017 was a 38.5% turnout.
	And 2013, when Chris Christie won last, it was a 39% turnout.
	So you're really hovering right around typically a 35 to 40% turnout.
	Now, in years past, we've seen higher, but the population in New Jersey has dramatically increased, just as it has in many places over the last 10 years.
	And Jack, break down what you did earlier on the show.
	I thought it was really fascinating with Rich, where you were talking about the ethnic white population that Jersey has.
	You were talking about Italians, Polish.
	Why that makes New Jersey different than New York?
	Yeah, so we were talking about how the demographic makeup in New Jersey, which is not dissimilar from Pennsylvania.
	It's very similar to PA, where I'm from, where you've got this working-class, blue-collar, working-class white voter of a lot of Italians, a lot of Irish, a lot of Poles like yours truly here that come in.
	And those groups are historically Democrat, but have flipped in key races over the years when you look at like Nixon in 6872, when you look at Reagan in 1980 and then 1984, and then of course for Trump himself when he came out.
	So those are the same groups, by the way, that gave Trump the margin in Pennsylvania because they flipped from D to R, or they were registered D, but were still willing to vote for the Republican candidate.
	And you see the same type of demographics in New Jersey as well as New Jersey facing the same type of economic headwinds that Pennsylvania has, the deindustrialization, the impact of outsourcing, the impact of financialization.
	They've all seen these job losses.
	They've all seen these issues writ large.
	And of course, massive influxes of the illegal alien population, et cetera.
	New Jersey, by the way, I think when you actually track it out per capita, New Jersey is the number five state for illegal aliens in the entire country, which is crazy when you think of how small New Jersey is and the fact that it's literally nowhere near the border, but it's because they get it because of because of New York as a point of entry.
	So when you look at all those things, that's vastly different from Virginia, where, by the way, polls just closed in Virginia.
	So if you're in line, stay in line in Virginia.
	They can't make you leave the line.
	The judge of elections will come out.
	They'll stand in the back of the line.
	They're probably going to be out their way right now in the various precincts across the state.
	Just stay there and, you know, just make sure to stay in line.
	If you are local, you know, you can tell us what's going on, freedom at charliekirk.com.
	That's, by the way, for every single state.
	If you're out there, you're at the elections, tell us what you're seeing, freedom at charliekirk.com.
	And so Virginia, though, in Northern Virginia, it's those white-collar voters, those white-collar workers.
	These are your federal government workers.
	These are people who are furloughed.
	These are people who are kind of part of that D.C. bubble that's like 97% Democrat.
	They hate Trump.
	They go to the No Kings protest.
	And many of them are going to be voting for Jay Jones because they don't oppose the rhetoric that came out from his text messages.
	Real quick here, guys, I want to show you just how brutal the D.C. politics is getting, just so we're clear.
	We got Senator Mark Wayne Mullen who says that there was a backroom negotiation that was conducted by Chuck Schumer with other senators that says to wait until after the election to vote to turn the government back on, to reopen it, because he was fearful that if they didn't keep the government shut, that the voter turnout would sag.
	So they were using the government shutdown.
	So people are not getting paychecks.
	People are not getting snap.
	All this stuff.
	Guess who's actually behind that?
	That'd be Chuck Schumer.
	Chuck Schumer is keeping the government shut until this election night concludes.
	209.
	Last week, Liz, I know Dick Durbin wanted to break with the Democrats and reopen the government.
	Chuck Schumer in a private meeting with other Democrat senators said that if you'll just wait till after the election, I'll release the handcuffs.
	I added the handcuff part, but basically I'm paraphrasing what he said.
	The reason why is because they're afraid their base wouldn't show up today in Virginia, New Jersey, and in New York.
	So it's been about politics.
	It's never been about policy.
	It's been about holding the American people as leverage points, regardless of the damage they cause to the livelihood of these individuals.
	But elections are more important than the Dems because why they know their polls is at the very bottom than it's ever been for the Democrat Party.
	Well, we'll find that out later tonight.
	We will certainly find that out.
	Blake, you got a question in from one of the emails and big league winning from Joseph.
	I wanted to know if you wanted to hear that.
	Yeah, yeah.
	So first, I also want to thank Usra Furasana for becoming a monthly supporter on Rumble.
	So thank you very much for that.
	But yeah, so we got a question here that was basically saying, can we rank the races by how winnable we think they are in order to tell where to look for hope?
	And I think that's also a good excuse to just rattle off the list of races that we're watching.
	I think we could probably agree of the major races, the one we're most optimistic on is probably Virginia AG, where we have Jason Mayaz versus, I always forget his name.
	Who's the child Julian Democrat?
	Jay Jones.
	And so that one was looking very rough most of the race.
	You know, competitive, but down consistently, probably five points or so.
	And then he went and said he wanted to kill children because that's the only way that we can have people change their views is if you kill their kids in front of them and then maybe shoot them, too.
	And kick their duck.
	And kick their...
	Well, yeah, whatever.
	I don't think he really kicked the dog.
	It was a funny clip.
	It was an attempted dog punting.
	It was an attempted dog punting, yes.
	I think we can agree.
	Polls have showed that that one is type.
	Close, close, but I think that's probably the only one where the prediction markets have us favored.
	Other races where we have pretty good odds, the Minneapolis mayor's race.
	It's weird to call this one of our races, but we would, I think, probably prefer Jacob Fry over Omar Vata.
	And so we prefer neither, but we will.
	Yeah, I mean, we would prefer maybe Minneapolis just dissolving.
	I guess it depends on what you want to see the outcome because, I mean, again.
	Minneapolis is a great content generator if you're a conservative podcast show or something.
	I mean, the outcome, the pundits are all saying that the current incumbent mayor is going to win.
	Yeah.
	But it's like it's not polled heavily, and I believe they have a form of instant runoff voting.
	But nobody's getting a majority.
	If Omar wins, this will be a crazy time in America because you'll have Mayor Omar in Minneapolis and you will have Mom Donnie in New York City.
	And this is the big question because there's been some argument, some debate online about Mom Donnie, you know, how good of a chance Mom Donnie has.
	We talked about this yesterday on Jack's show.
	There's a lot of individuals and a lot of polling that's out there that's showing like a 20-point victory for Mom Donnie.
	There's some people that were pointing to some late polling.
	I will remind everyone with early voting, the later polling goes, the more it tilts in favor of those who show up on Election Day.
	And so you have generally a more conservative poll closer to Election Day than you do 10 or 20 days out from Election Day.
	So if you have early voting in any jurisdiction that is 20, 30, 40 days out, there's somewhere in the middle is a more realistic poll, in my opinion.
	And that's what we've seen is that polling becomes lopsided closer that you get to the election because people have already cast their ballots.
	So people either are answering the poll that have already voted or people are answering it incorrectly.
	Wouldn't that just mean that the polls are kind of irrelevant then?
	That's what people are saying.
	Yeah, it's basically irrelevant because it gets tilted more towards the conservative, but it's still a raw number.
	Generally, I think people get too invested in polls.
	We're going to get the only poll that matters here in a matter of minutes.
	And I think we'll know pretty quickly how things are likely to be.
	Yeah, I mean, but let's go rank order.
	Oh, go ahead.
	I just wanted to finish on that thought.
	New York City, again, there was a lot of hopium happening in the last 48 hours where people were going, I don't know.
	Oh, it looks like the Atlas.
	That looks that with the Atlas Intel.
	I was like, well, it looks like Cuomo has a chance.
	I want to remind everybody again: when early voting happens and you have an extremely crooked, I mean, you could make the argument that New York City has the most crooked elections in America.
	Okay?
	Like, do we agree or disagree?
	I mean, we literally have to go to the house.
	California's giving a run for their money, but no, but I mean, yeah, I mean, New York City historically, like, they invented, you know, you have intense, intense union presence.
	You have all of the international elements that are there.
	You have all these illegals that are there now voting that they're allowing voting.
	And it's a sanctuary city for voting for illegals.
	It's not just for a living for illegals.
	It's now influencing the country.
	So that's where you, that's what you got.
	Well, so, Blake, keep on our ranks.
	So we got, hold on.
	First, real quick.
	Tachio44 gave $5.
	And he has something for Cliff.
	He says, Cliff, I have to take issue with your cheesesteak recommendations from the other night.
	Skinny Joe threatened to whack me because my dad saw something.
	That never happened, of course.
	I don't even know what that's referring to.
	But apparently, your cheesesteak recommendations are not credited.
	They are the cheesesteaks.
	Okay.
	I have gotten so much heat for this.
	I don't know if it was on here or Tim Cass, but I recommended a couple different places.
	And me and Pat Dugan got into it about what a real Philly cheesesteak is and the generational shift.
	Anyway, I recommended Skinny Joey's, Skinny Joey, Joey.
	What is it?
	Merlino?
	Am I getting that right, Poso?
	Yeah.
	Merlino.
	Yeah.
	So he was connected, did some time, but he's out and he's got his connection.
	Skinny Joey's.
	No, he was the boss.
	And literally the boss of the Philadelphia crime family from the 90s until 2024.
	Listen, I'm not trying to get on any more lists.
	I'm wanting enough of those.
	So yes, that was my recommendation, but I'm sorry that they didn't enjoy it.
	It's a great cheesesteak.
	Cooper Witt.
	Cooper Wit.
	So, by the way, my thing on this, like, I'm very kind of like anti-Philly on this because I think they're all great.
	I think if you're getting a cheesesteak from Philly, they're all good.
	I think that Pats and Gino's is perfectly fine.
	People say, oh, those are for tourists only.
	No, I mean, it's like, like, people, I'm just going to say it.
	Like, those are the only ones that have guns.
	A lot of people in Philly are getting a little bit fat.
	It's just true.
	Like, a lot of people in Pennsylvania are getting a little bit fat.
	And the cheesesteaks are all good.
	Like, you don't have to be so pretentious about it.
	They're all good.
	Quick poll.
	If you're getting it from Philly, they're good.
	Quick poll amongst all the gentlemen here, especially those with Philly roots.
	Is it Provolone, American, or Cheese Whiz?
	I'm a Provolone or Wiz guy, depending on my movie.
	No, no, no, no.
	No, no, big one.
	Cooper Sharp, Gundier Hen.
	Cooper Sharp.
	Come on, Cooper Sharp.
	It's the new generation.
	Whiz?
	Cheese Whiz?
	Yeah.
	All right.
	Hey, Cliff, that image you sent, we've got it loaded.
	215, if you want to explain what we're looking at here.
	Cooper Sharp is good too, actually.
	Cliff, are you Cheese Whiz?
	No, he said Cooper Sharp.
	He said Cooper Sharp.
	No, Cooper Sharp.
	Okay.
	All right, throw it up.
	When they have the Cheese Whiz with the Home Depot.
	When they have the Home Depot paint stir to stir the Cheese Whiz, you know you've lost the narrative.
	All right.
	That's how you know.
	So let's pull this up.
	Let's pull.
	So the numbers we're looking at here, I'm just showing you guys this because I totally agree with what Tyler said.
	We would need to see extreme turnout.
	And if you look at this tweet, what it's showing you is the different turnout when you compare to 2021 in each of these counties.
	Now, listen, all these counties are not strongholds for left or right, but I'm just saying if Jack's going to win, he's going to need to see extreme improvement over the 2021 turnout.
	The more people showing up on election day, it's obviously going to help him overall.
	And so you're seeing in some of these counties, and it's some of these, you know, you're talking at 2 o'clock or 4 o'clock, some 6 o'clock, but they're overperforming 2021.
	And, you know, you look at Ocean County, which is the strongest county for Republicans in New Jersey.
	It's at 104%.
	I'm not saying by any means that that means he's going to win, but we would have to see counties like that skyrocket as we get to 8 o'clock here when it comes to total votes by comparison to 2021.
	Yeah, Ocean County.
	But I thought this tweet was a really good breakdown.
	Cliff, talk about how important Ocean County is for Republicans.
	Yeah, Ocean County, I believe in 2016, of all the counties in America, it received the second most raw votes for Donald Trump.
	Okay, this is a Republican stronghold.
	It is absolutely one where we have to run up the score.
	I mean, if we increase the turnout in Ocean County by 10 to 12 percentage points, you're talking about massive gains throughout the state and a state where Jack J. Rowley only lost by 84,000 votes four years ago.
	So Ocean County is one to absolutely keep your eye on.
	There are tons of Republicans there.
	We put two of our Airbnbs in Ocean County just because it was that important and there were that many Republicans to target.
	Was it 84,000?
	Was that all in 2021?
	Oh, I thought it was over 100.
	And so, and by the way, Ocean County is where that's where Cliff and Scott and then Tyler, you set up the very first turning point action Super Chase event was right there at Toms River, Toms River, New Jersey, which is Ocean County.
	And then that's right next door to Lakewood, New Jersey, which is that spot where we just saw these incredible numbers.
	The Orthodox Jewish community has come out in droves and we had lines upon lines around the block on that Sunday.
	Also, six flags, great adventures down there.
	Yeah, six flags where it's known to everybody.
	I spent many chasing girls.
	We got $5 from AJ Quick, 88.
	Angelo's Pizzeria best cheesecake sandwiches, South Philly Bay.
	You might order some cheese steaks.
	I feel distrustful of someone saying a pizzeria has the best cheese steaks.
	I mean, I haven't been there.
	No, no, no.
	You can have great cheese steaks.
	Very good.
	It seems off.
	I'm not going to order cheese steaks.
	It'd be like saying a cheesesteak place had made the best pizzas in there.
	That's just the name of the joint.
	There are lots of really good, even around Temple, we would have great pizzerias that had really good cheese.
	NALA 76 just says all cheese is good.
	No, I totally disagree with that.
	That's totally incorrect.
	All cheese is good.
	What would be the weirdest cheese you could put on a cheese steak?
	What if someone made like a Munster?
	Yeah.
	Gorgonzola cheese steak.
	Oh, gosh.
	No, that's just one of those really heavy Italian cheeses.
	Yeah, no, that just sounds terrible.
	That sounds like Limburger, you know, or like Swiss.
	Like imagine, or like, like, or no, we've got like a Brie, like putting like a Brief.
	It's crazy.
	It's completely insane.
	That's disgusting.
	It'd be a lot of fun.
	I want to finish doing a quick rundown of just the races that we are looking at here because, so we mentioned Philly.
	We mentioned, or yeah, we've mentioned the Virginia stuff.
	Virginia's going to be a lot of fun.
	Well, we mentioned Virginia AG.
	We're going to be getting results in the others here first.
	I'll be frank.
	It would be a colossal upset if Winsome Sears is able to beat Abigail Spanberger for governor.
	Just the way it is.
	We'll be looking, I think, to keep that close mostly.
	If we win, this is an amazing night.
	We're just celebrating all night.
	I'll be in as good a mood as I was last year, but it's going to be very tough.
	New Jersey governor, we're moderate.
	We're hopeful on that one.
	I think.
	Jack, what would you put the odds on that one?
	Maybe on the other hand.
	I'm holding out hope.
	I'm holding out hope.
	It looks like we got our first drop.
	We got our first Virginia Attorney General data drop.
	This is the very first votes.
	8,700 votes.
	It's Jones winning over the incumbent.
	What county is it from?
	That's what's going to matter.
	I'll pull it up here.
	It's from Bland County.
	Is this Richard County?
	Grayson County, and then from Buckingham County.
	It looks like it's a great place.
	Oh, and Lynchburg.
	Yep.
	Lynchburg is a.
	Lynchburg, though, is where Liberty University is.
	And this looks like to be a dem heavy drop.
	72% for Jay Jones.
	That's not going to hold.
	Lynchburg is a Republican stronghold.
	Okay.
	So that's not going to hold.
	But right now, he's up by 22 points over Jason Miaris.
	The modeling, I'm texting with Rich right now.
	The modeling is right now.
	It's not great for Miaris.
	It's got a 57 chance to win, right?
	But it's so early that the model is going to be grossly inaccurate at this point.
	But, oh, we're getting some more from Virginia Attorney General.
	Less than 1% votes.
	Yeah, this is like nothing burger results.
	So one thing that I would like to say to kind of just contextualize the night, one of the big asks that we're going to have, and of course, everyone is saying, like, well, is this, you know, is this an election referendum on Donald Trump?
	And, you know, obviously those are a lot of questions that were asked in all of the exit polls.
	But it's also a test for, and Tyler, you and I were talking about this yesterday in Human Events.
	It's going to be a test for the Republican Party going in the midterms to say, okay, what do we need to do to get those low-prop voters out with Donald Trump not being on the ballot?
	So when Donald Trump is not on the ballot himself, what needs to take place?
	What works, what doesn't work, in terms of strategy for getting out those low-prop voters, which were the special sauce to winning on the margins in seven out of seven of the swing states last time.
	And so, Tyler, I think, you know, we're going to have a lot of lessons out of tonight, no matter what happens in terms of this, because look, obviously we're competing in areas that we haven't competed before ever, like New Jersey.
	This is a blue state map that we're on.
	We're not supposed to be competing there.
	The Democrats, Barack Obama, don't want us competing there.
	That's why they had to bring him in in the first place because this was competitive.
	But at the same time, when you look at those demographic trends the way they're going, that's why we've been able to say, all right, let's play in these areas, came in to an extent, and then figure out what works in Jersey and what doesn't, especially though, writ large without Donald Trump being on the ballot himself.
	Hey, we've got two more.
	We've got JD Kohey says, God bless Charlie Kirk.
	God bless Charlie Kirk.
	Amen.
	I agree.
	And also, we have Nala76 says, you may not have Mr. Hero, but they have great cheese steaks as well.
	We're getting a lot of cheese steak right now.
	Hey, just to put this out into the ether real quick here, I know it's still super early here, but with the votes that have been counted from the ballots that have been cast, it looks like Jones is trailing behind Spamberger about three points.
	So it's a good first sign.
	Jones trailing.
	Oh, yeah.
	So the overall gap about three points.
	Yeah.
	I mean, it's a delta between the two.
	Yeah, yeah.
	It's updating, and so it's going to, but there's been a, at times, a significant gap.
	I think you're going to want a bigger gap than that because I think it just updated.
	There's no gap anymore.
	But that's, you know.
	Well, what's the total vote count?
	Can we see that?
	Yeah.
	Well, look, it's still less than 1%.
	Also, Tyler, you never told us you were cheese.
	It's 27,000 to 18,000 for Spamberger.
	And then we right now are Jones is up 24,000 to 16,000.
	Interesting.
	Tyler, you never told us your cheese, by the way.
	I'm a provolone guy.
	Nice.
	I like a fresh cut steak and prevalent.
	I love provolin.
	Yeah.
	I love providing.
	That's my guy, too.
	And what kind of bun do you like?
	Do you like a clean bun or do you like a bun that's been like marinated?
	No, I like something that's just like soaked a little bit.
	Yeah, see, that's what I like.
	Tanya, when she goes, she likes a clean bun.
	She wants like a fresh piece of bread.
	I like really rare steak.
	Like I like a fresh cut, so it's like juicy.
	So you're telling me that there's a place here in Phoenix that can do real cheesecakes?
	I don't think it's going to be the same.
	All right, we'll see.
	They have forefathers.
	So really interesting.
	Sorry to actually go back to the election content here, but throw up image 217.
	This is a Virginia exit poll.
	Now, Rich has given us some indications on the exit poll how much to trust him.
	But this is an interesting data point, right?
	So with independence in Virginia, exit poll.
	We got Spamberger is a plus 15, which is wild.
	But look at this.
	Miaris is at plus three over Jay Jones with independence, with independence.
	So like in a state where you have a registration advantage that's pretty striking for the Democrat Party, to have the AG have a noticeable exit polling advantage, whether that's enough to make up the difference or not, we will see, but at least that is holding, that is holding.
	By the way, here's another one, if we can get this up in time.
	This is an exit poll from CNN.
	Women prefer Jones over Miaris, 55 to 43, according to the exit poll.
	Men prefer Miaris over Jones, 58 to 40.
	So again, this is for the AG race in Virginia.
	So there's a 15-point gap.
	Yeah.
	Gender gap in that race.
	That's pretty high, even for America.
	That is striking, though.
	So Jones comes out, fetishizes the murder of his political opponents and his children, and it's women that don't seem to care.
	Yeah, but again, I mean, all right.
	Well, Blake, should we talk about how that translates itself into the abortion vote?
	I mean, are there any abortion votes today?
	No, I'm just saying, in terms of the Attorney General and in terms of coming out and saying you're pro-abortion versus pro-life, which we know Mayaris is, then perhaps saying what I'm trying to get at is perhaps saying what Jay Jones said is already in line with a lot of what, as we know, single Democrat women already believe.
	They're pro-abortion.
	So perhaps some of those comments weren't necessarily so far out of line with that statement.
	We got our first YouTube comment from Manuel Reda, who says, Corleones in Phoenix is good cheese steak.
	I don't know where we're ordering out here.
	Yeah, Corleone is what they say.
	Just so you guys are aware, there are some people that are already trying to call the race, the gubernatorial election in Virginia for Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
	Well, that was pretty likely win.
	Finding out.
	It's a little early.
	Yeah, just to do a quick, because we've tried to do it a few times.
	I just want to do a quick roundup of other races we're watching because it is not just Virginia and New Jersey.
	We, of course, are watching the New York City mayor's race.
	Also, there's a funny ballot measure.
	Ballot measure six in New York would switch their local elections to presidential election years.
	I oppose that on the pure principle that we need content as political watchers, and it's good to have some elections that are in off years.
	We don't want just another boring election that's part of the presidential election.
	So many in one night.
	Space it out.
	Space it out.
	We need content.
	We're also watching California.
	There's only one statewide measure, Prop 50.
	It's to adopt basically re-legalize gerrymandering so they can make a Democrat gerrymander to counter some Republican efforts we've had in Texas and Ohio and so on.
	That seems likely to pass, but not heavily polled.
	It's unsure.
	Right here in Arizona, we're watching the Mesa recall of what's her name, Spillsbury.
	We're watching that.
	So out in Arizona, we have a couple of different things going on.
	We have a tax proposition that's going to be Super Snooze Fest, but that's in Maricopa County.
	But the big one is that we were, the grassroots had recalled, has sent to recall the co-chair for Republicans for Kamala.
	So she's a fake Republican at you know, masquerading.
	Recalls are really tough.
	So this is this is the same conversation that we're having across the board here.
	An expectation to recall someone is really, really hard.
	And part of the reason for that is because the Democrats join with the usually the establishment or uniparty type Republicans, try to hold people in office, da, da, da, while outsiders have to come in and win.
	That election that is being forced in Arizona is a is a huge deal because it forced the Democrats on their heels to have to spend really hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of effort and resources to try to retain a you know again quote-unquote Republican for Kamala that they were trying to use this last election and the election before in 2020 to try to confuse the public.
	So the conservatives did the right thing, put her on the recall ballot, and she might lose.
	And if she loses, that will be a huge, huge upset for the Democrats because they'll have lost embarrassingly a person that was they were propping up to try to confuse voters.
	The by the way, and I'm just going to say it.
	So this, you know, Andrew, you mentioned about how there's been some projections in Virginia.
	It's Decision Desk.
	So Decision Desk has come out, and we've always gone with Decision Desk on the pod here that Decision Desk has projected Abigail Spanberger to win the Virginia gubernatorial election.
	And so, of course, we're going to be tracking this throughout the night, but we're putting it out.
	Decision Desk does have it, and we've always gone with error calls in the past.
	Yep.
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	Meg wrote us in.
	She says, Hi, fellas.
	Charlie loved this night so much.
	And I always watched election coverage with you, and that won't change.
	Thank you, Meg.
	Gotta say, I have tears streaming down my face seeing his empty chair.
	But can y'all address what is going on right now in PA and Bucks County?
	Thanks for the info.
	Love you guys.
	So I sent this over to Cliff.
	So there is.
	Chester County was well, Chester County.
	I'm going to address that.
	But Bucks County.
	So I started searching around Bucks County, and all I can tell is that there's like some weird UFO, people are saying over Bucks County.
	What?
	Throw up 219.
	Yeah, I don't think it's, but this is all I could find.
	So there's some sort of image.
	It might be like a Tesla launch or like a SpaceX launch, rather.
	I have no idea what that is.
	People are reporting for Bucks County, if that's what you're asking about, Meg.
	But if not, if you're asking about what's going on in Chester County, perhaps Cliff could chime in here, but basically third-party voters were left off the poll books.
	And so now voters in Chester County, throw up image 218, have until 10 p.m. to vote in Chester County.
	Am I getting my facts right?
	That's right.
	They've expended.
	So Scott Proster was key on this one, by the way, not only in raising awareness about it, but also going down to fighting it in person.
	And so they did get, look, huge issues.
	Independent voters were not included in the poll books today.
	That's bizarre.
	Which is completely insane.
	Josh Shapiro is Pennsylvania, by the way, folks.
	Josh Shapiro is Pennsylvania, an entire county.
	Chester County, this is one of the collar counties of Philadelphia.
	This is one of the Philadelphia exurbs.
	This is where Westchester is.
	Westchester University is there.
	Just an absolute enormous county.
	A ton of Republicans, by the way, and as well as conservative-leaning, conservative-leaning independents.
	Didn't flip in 2024 the way Bucks County did, but it was one of the ones that was a target to flip.
	And yeah, the idea that they were not able to have independent voters, there was even questions, by the way.
	And not only that, so typically, by the way, what would happen is if your name is not in the poll book, then you would go and cast what's called a provisional ballot.
	And then, of course, they promptly ran out of provisional ballots, and they were telling people that they had to be turned away.
	Obviously, that's completely illegal.
	Court made the right call here.
	Wonder what happened with Josh Shapiro's governance of the elections in Pennsylvania to allow one of the most populous counties of Pennsylvania to not have their elections done correctly.
	Strange.
	Real quick update here.
	So hold on really quick.
	Just really quick.
	Jason Miaris is now up over Jay Jones.
	And this is again the Virginia Attorney General race.
	He's up by about 3,000 votes or let's see here, almost two points.
	Meanwhile, if you go over, this will give us a pretty early indication of the delta between the AG race and the governor's race.
	And right now, at the same time, Abigail Spanberger is running up by about six points.
	So there's almost an eight-point delta currently as it drops between Jason Miaris and Winsom Sears.
	So that's an interesting.
	That's bad news for Jay Jones.
	That's bad news, but I mean, a lot of people were saying that we needed to say Jason Miaris run a delta of 10 over Winsom in order to pull this off.
	So this is still going to come down.
	I think this is still going to come down to the wire.
	But that is what we're looking at right now.
	It's about a 2.2 delta, 2.2% advantage, Jason Miaris over Jay Jones right now, whereas Abigail Spanberger is, let's see here.
	Yeah, it's a little less than six.
	So now it's shrunk.
	It's about a seven-point delta.
	But that's, listen, if he can, if he, the higher, the closer to 10 points that that can get to, the better chance that Jason Miaris is going to have a chance to pull this off the way that the evening's going.
	Yeah, I mean, like always, we're going to be sitting here waiting for the gigantic Fairfax County nuclear bomb to go off.
	Let's bring Cliff back in.
	Cliff, you were about to say something.
	Yeah, listen.
	I mean, this Chester County thing, it's not just about the retention races.
	It's not just about the Superior and Commonwealth court races.
	But we have thousands of school board races and local judge of elections and precinct level races.
	I mean, these races that are local are going to dictate who oversees the elections for 2026 through 2029.
	So the fact that 75,000 of these people were kept off the voting rolls in a time when everyone is already just raising their red flags about a lot of the voter integrity and the processes, it's just too big of a mistake to make.
	So I give tons of credit to Scott Pressler for applying the pressure.
	And as you guys said, two extra hours in Chester County.
	If anybody knows anyone there that's with us, America First, make sure they get out and vote, not just for the big races, but for all the local ones as well.
	A few messages here.
	We've got Jude says, I love you guys.
	I just started a chapter.
	Thank you, Jude.
	And we also have PJ.
	He says, offers some good perspective.
	If a Republican wins tonight in Virginia or New Jersey, it's a catastrophic sign for Democrats.
	But if Republicans can keep it close, it's still a perfectly good sign for 2026.
	Rest in peace, Charlie.
	Yeah.
	Hey, Tyler, just since we've got more time in Chester County, by the way, Meg confirmed that that's what she was asking about Chester County, not Bucks.
	So we got to the main point that she had.
	Tyler, Turning Point Action App.
	How do people use that?
	Now they've got a two-hour window extra for Chester.
	Can they just zoom in on Chester County and start making calls of low props?
	Yeah, we're getting up.
	I think the team's working to try to focus in on Chester County right now.
	But we may not have it up in time here.
	All right.
	Well, keep us posted.
	We'll check in.
	We got two hours.
	Just in general, though, getting on the application is easy.
	You should do it.
	If you didn't have the chance to do it this election cycle, please help us in the future.
	You download the TP Action application and you can go in and you can rock and roll real easily on there.
	Tap the top left-hand corner, the arrows, log in, and then you have the option to knock doors, make phone calls, send text messages, even write postcards of your own.
	It just gives you, it feeds you who to write the postcards to all throughout.
	So that's really, really impactful.
	A ballot measure, I didn't realize we have today until looking at the list here of all the states.
	Maine has a ballot measure to require voter ID and to curtail absentee voting, and the polls indicate it's a dead heat.
	So someone actually polled that question.
	And so we're hopeful on that one.
	It would be good to, you know, we say vote early if you can.
	Vote absentee if that's the only way you can do it.
	But we do prefer the ideal of people voting on election day, not having 8 million different ways to do it.
	If you had the opportunity to write the law and you could federalize elections, not that that's the way the Constitution works, but like how should the perfect ideal voting protocol be?
	I think the ideal form of voting is you have to register in advance.
	We have a log of all of who our citizens are.
	And there's a cutoff date.
	And there's a cutoff date for you to register.
	And then you go in on election day.
	In person.
	In person.
	And you cast a ballot.
	It's a paper ballot.
	After presenting, it's a paper ballot.
	You present your voter ID to cast your ballot.
	Now, voter ID.
	This is a question I actually have.
	Do you prefer that it is a driver's license or do you prefer that it's an actual specific ID that is a voter voting ID?
	Well, it should be an ID that you have to actually demonstrate your citizenship to get, which is something we have greatly diluted in this nation.
	You know, we go, there's kind of a problem we had where we had, I think, a window to get good ID laws in place and like a good citizenship stuff.
	And we were kind of going through one of the conservative movements like big frenzies against any form of like government database of things.
	And so we don't, for example, we don't have an actual federal database of who's a citizen.
	And that's a huge problem.
	And on top of that.
	And on top of that, you had also Interest from a big chamber of commerce to you know actually be on the side for sure for sure but it's not even just changing it's sort of like we also had this with the uh with the census where they got very paranoid about the census and that was happening at a time where we could have made the census better yeah but the chamber guys wanted the illegals in the country well they definitely do but they still do they still are they always
	always quite about all right race called another one lieutenant governor's race in virginia for democrat gazala hash me i think uh went to school with a gazala hash me just kidding um all right so what there's a lot of dodgers there's just a lot of oh a lot of a lot of new names yeah but so miares and jones that is a dead heat right now jones is slightly ahead but it's 11 reporting uh we're now getting some votes from
	a big one is we got almost all the votes from loudon it looks like 75 in from loudon and that's good to have almost all in because that is a big blue county at this point we are still waiting zero percent on the fairfax county nuke that is probably going to come in last so we're going to want to have built up some kind of lead that's going to be very ugly yeah and so we're going to want leads from you know rural virginia shenandoah virginia we're going to need that to offset what is going to be coming from fairfax county but
	this could be the race that we're watching throughout the night along with us waiting for new york mayor minneapolis mayor prop 50 is going to be very late tonight keep in mind too guys i mean obviously governor is a big deal not having the governorship and it in a state's a big deal but an attorney general can really hold the state in check so nothing makes the democrats more miserable than when you have a conservative attorney general basically thwarting the agenda of a legislature
	especially when you have
	you know a situation where the legislature is held by the democrats plus the governorship and that's what you're looking at in virginia is a bad situation where you're going from a very conservative governor to a not so conservative governor like like break neck breaking speed so keeping jason in is going to be a huge deal to really cause them a lot of heartburn and and they're really freaked out by that because of the the uh how close
	to dc it is i mean virginia is the place that they the democrats run all of their junk through when they control it as a as a total blue state and it's really really been terrible for them to have republicans running the state for the last couple years here so uh our last four years so that's a that's a big that's a big deal that has to be uh has to be looked at is that jason you we really got to be pulling for we're going to keep a close eye on this um and
	it looks like a big a big uh dump just actually just came in i'm i'm looking to by the way go go look at the the governor's race so just because we're talking about the way uh virginia voters are which model which is is coming true is look at the modeling and you can actually see the republican john reed who I don't think anyone's talked about at all, is actually, and just what I'm checking, it looks like he's starting to outperform Sears in his voting.
	Some of the numbers I'm looking at, he's two points above Winsom Sears, who, by the way, had, I mean, she had every endorsement.
	She had tons of ads.
	She had tons of money.
	And now you've got the Republican John Reed, who was her LG candidate, is actually outperforming her.
	Yeah, that was a little bit expected in all the polling because not as much money was spent.
	So that is kind of the consensus was that he would fall somewhere between Miares and Winsome Sears.
	So you're seeing that ticket splitting all across the top of the ticket in Virginia.
	It's really interesting.
	It's very interesting.
	It's kind of mind-boggling how the mind works.
	Some of it, to give some explanation, is that the ballot chasing on the left, so ballot harvesting, ballot chasing, depending upon the state.
	Is it bullet voting?
	So what they do is they only go out and chase what they need to.
	So again, a lot of the people that they're knocking on doors are saying, don't worry about the rest of the ticket.
	Just vote for governor.
	Right.
	And this, by the way, you know, again, by the way, Andrew, one of those terms that I don't know if we can use anymore, but that actually is referred to as bullet voting because you're only filling in one.
	So we have a few that 32% votes are in in Fairfax.
	Obviously, Fairfax has begun dropping.
	And it's super in Jay Jones' favor.
	So now Jay Jones has taken about an eight-point lead over an eight-point lead, 17% of the voting.
	A lot of red counties.
	Yeah, no.
	And just to be fully honest about things, the big blue bomb.
	Now, what we are looking at right now, it's going to be very close, it looks like.
	But I will say going into election night, the betting markets, we shouldn't forget about those.
	Betting markets had that as about a 50-50 thing.
	They now have Jones as about a two-thirds favorite to win.
	So that would be extremely unfortunate for what has happened.
	But we do have Jones pulling ahead in the betting markets, but not a runaway.
	There are still results to come in that we are waiting to see.
	Cliff, you try to hop in there.
	Yeah, let's just think about how insane this is.
	You have a guy, Jay Jones.
	I mean, we all live and breathe this, so we've seen it a million times.
	But the fact that somebody will be the top cop in the state or the Commonwealth of Virginia who said that he fantasized about killing his political opponent and their kids, let's not discount how insane that is and the time period that we're in.
	I mean, that to me is just, it's insanity.
	And I just think we need to continuously talk about this, and we can't just kind of, you know, bury this thing and move on.
	It's like, this guy's a vile human being.
	I don't know anybody.
	I mean, maybe some random kid from high school that went crazy that would send text messages like this.
	This is absurd.
	And I just think we should continuously call this guy out.
	He is going to be the top cop if he wins this race.
	I'm going to try to avoid if Virginia liked the plague.
	Heather, our top activist in Turning Point Action in New Jersey, wants to remind everyone that polls are remaining open until 8 p.m.
	8 p.m. in 21 minutes.
	So New Jersey, we're open till 8 p.m.
	So if you're in line, stay in line.
	If you have a friend and you're close by, take him.
	If you have a family member, take him down to the polling place.
	It's open until 8.
	Mobilize the Jersey Grandmas.
	Check your Jersey grandma.
	Has she voted yet?
	Make sure she needs to get out there.
	If she needs a ride, go give her a ride.
	8 p.m.
	8 p.m.
	And once you're in line, you stay in line.
	Blake, we had some breaking news, I believe, about the New Jersey lines from earlier tonight, that what happens to you if you stay, if you actually leave the line.
	And I had this from Data Republican, trusted source, who said that if you leave the line in New Jersey, that Chris Christie will come and eat you.
	He will eat you.
	Or sit on you.
	Or perhaps sit on you like he sat on that bridge and broke it.
	By the way.
	Jude donated $2 and asked, how can I get people fired up to talk at my chapter?
	Well, for starters, you could talk.
	Yeah, Democrats just are possibly going to elect an AG in Virginia who fantasizes about killing your kids, a top law enforcement officer.
	Can we just maybe have that as a permanent sign that you could put on your window or in your lawn that just says the Democrats' top law enforcement officer wants to kill my kids?
	How many people have voted for Jay Jones that we know as of right now?
	Let's check the exact total number of votes right now.
	It's 367,066.
	So 367,000 people in Virginia have voted for someone who said what?
	He says he, you know, I think two bullets in each of that one Republican's kids because having your kids die is the only way you change your mind.
	Right.
	So remember, when all the people told you it's both sides and we have to unite and we have to call it out on every angle, over 300,000 people just voted for a guy who believes that.
	And by the way, he didn't just say it.
	He called somebody up and was harassing her over this.
	And then hundreds of thousands of Democrats went and voted for him.
	No, and by the way, the person that he was texting with said, this makes me uncomfortable.
	He doubles the woman.
	Yeah, then he called them to double down and emphasize, no, he was dead serious and she was being a wuss by not embracing the, you have to kill your opponent's kids.
	Yeah.
	No, so by the way, so I'm I'm told that Rich Barris, the people's pundit, Big Dana Poll, is ready to join us now.
	Blake, or sorry, Rich, you and I were texting about this clip.
	It's a famous clip from Bob Beckle.
	And I found it, man.
	I found it.
	So this is what, like 2010, maybe?
	14.
	It's the 2014 election with Ed Gillespie and Mark Warner.
	It was a sleeper race.
	Yeah, so all of a sudden, it's hilarious.
	So these guys are like, it's one of those instances where they're on TV too long, Rich, and like Bob forgets that there's a camera on.
	And Bob used to be a political operative in Northern Virginia.
	And he talks about the fact for Democrats.
	And he talks about the fact, oh, yeah, we used to hold back votes all the time in Northern Virginia.
	And it's like this little slip of the tongue where he like, you know, it's like a magician on stage telling everybody how he does his tricks.
	You're not supposed to do this.
	And it's this classic clip.
	So I got to get you to react to it.
	And then we can kind of zero in on Virginia.
	You say there's some good news for Miaris here.
	There is some decent news.
	I mean, it's going to be very close, but I'll let you, you know.
	Yeah, let's play 224.
	I want you to react to it.
	224.
	This race is going to come down with all due respect to my dear colleague on the five.
	I just do not believe Gless was going to hang on and win in Virginia.
	Fairfax County still got 40% of the vote out.
	And I used to work that county and we always held back votes.
	And it'll come in.
	Actually, well, it was pretty easy to do.
	You were the guy with the boxes about this may welcome down.
	Believe it or not, this may welcome down to Kansas, this whole thing.
	Wow.
	Drama.
	All right.
	So, Rich, unpack that clip for us.
	So, Bob Beckle, you know, God bless his soul.
	I was actually told by people who worked at Fox, he had been dealing with and struggling with, as millions of Americans in this country have during this modern era, you know, of like, you know, a painkiller addiction, apparently.
	And he said that being tired.
	And there's just a point in politics where they thought that's what loosened his tongue.
	But there was just a point in politics where some of these guys, especially these old school Democrats, just get older and start telling the truth.
	I mean, you see James Carville do it.
	Bill Clinton does it.
	I mean, this happens.
	And the idea, like, we have to listen to the Nate Cohens of the world and everybody else on mainstream media pretend that this doesn't happen is ridiculous.
	I remember Jerry Nadler talking about this years ago when he thought that he was the one who suffered from, you know, as a result of it.
	And now all of a sudden, we're supposed to pretend it doesn't happen.
	It does.
	They have guys like me sitting around going, how many more ballots do we need?
	Stop counting.
	And they crunch the numbers and give it to them.
	Come on, guys.
	That's what, though, I just want to say, I'm not going down that route tonight.
	Tonight is a different story, but I will say that in close elections, absolutely they do this, Andrew.
	Stop.
	Come on.
	Stop.
	Stop, Rich.
	Come on.
	All right.
	What's the good news for Miaris here?
	Because, Blake, you have an update on the betting markets.
	It's not looking good in the betting markets.
	The betting markets have it up to 90% that Jones wins.
	So people who put their money where their mouth is.
	Yeah, and I have mixed feelings on the betting markets.
	I've watched them over the years gyrate back and forth wildly on election nights because as we get more votes, the picture gets clearer.
	But look, he cannot win this thing if he doesn't win Chesterfield County.
	There are a few things, a few pieces, right, that came together for Yunkin to be able to win this state in 2021.
	And one, I mean, there's one piece of bad news, but it still can get a little bit better.
	But in Chesterfield, it went back and forth all night long until eventually it settled at Yunkin being just slightly ahead, guys.
	And when I say slightly, it was 51.8 to 47.4%.
	Right now, looking at it with about 43% of the vote, it's Jones ahead 51.7 to 48.3.
	And that is very, that bodes for, I mean, Chesterfield, just so people understand what I'm talking about.
	There are affluent burbs here.
	You have got to do well here if you're a Republican, if you want to have any prayer of winning this state.
	Also in Louding County, it's almost all in.
	So this last batch will have to bump Mayarez up a little bit, but he's only running about 2.3 points behind Yunkin in Louding County.
	So when this last batch of election day vote comes in, he will have a chance to get a little bit closer to that.
	But all of this still, even if he runs slightly behind Yonkin, these areas have a lot of votes.
	All of this points to a very close race.
	So, you know, if something changes dramatically, you know, we'll know.
	But right now, Chesterfield, that next batch of votes that come in, guys, especially the election day, we have got to know where that comes from, which I will when it comes in, and, you know, how that vote broke.
	Because if Mayarez can retake Chesterfield, it's going to be, it's good news for him.
	It is.
	So Chesterfield.
	But it's bad news overall.
	Let me just say, real quick, sorry, Andrew.
	I don't mean to interrupt.
	It's bad news.
	It's bad news overall that this race is close, period, given what happened in this race.
	And I heard you guys when I was waiting, you know, talking about it.
	I mean, this is a guy who's going, he's the top cop in the state, Andrew.
	And he was fantasizing about killing the children of his political opponent and watching the mother hold the children as they die in her arms.
	This is where we are.
	This is really sick stuff.
	This is really sick stuff.
	And Cliff Cliff made a great point.
	I mean, by the way, the fact that you've got this gender split, Rich, like I'm going to be noodling on this all night and into the morning if Jay Jones wins, that you've got women, women.
	So this guy's saying that he wants the mom of these two kids to suffer, watching his kids die.
	And it's the women that are still defending this guy.
	I think that's going to be the story, though, Andrew, is that I mean, I hate to I hate to make this like super early projection for the night is that President Trump and we encourage this during the last election a year ago.
	We had a lot of men show up for elections.
	And that was helpful.
	This may be a situation where we look at the data that's coming back and we're going to see an underperformance with men, overperformance with women.
	And again, your college-educated, middle-class female is voting basically straight line Democrat now in almost like 20-point margins, 25-point margins in a lot of these places.
	So you're in a really bad shape.
	This is a question that we've got to figure out as a movement is how do we have conversations with women to fix that?
	And number two, how do we get men to show up for elections that are less meaningful to them personally?
	And that's a real question.
	That's a real question that we've got to answer.
	We've got to figure out.
	One piece on women that I think was, and just going back to lessons from 2024, was Maha.
	So Maha played a huge role for that.
	I didn't see a lot of Maha engagement in anything.
	That's a really good point.
	And I've said this again.
	I have tweeted this, that Maha is extremely popular.
	Maha is the most popular political movement in America today.
	And I didn't see, did anyone bring in Nicole Shanahan to go and campaign in any of these races?
	Was anyone really putting RFK Jr.
	out for that?
	Or asking RFK to come in or Dr. Oz or any of the big Maha types?
	I would be doing that.
	Rich, you were coming in?
	I mean, I'm listening to you, and I'm just, I cannot agree with you more.
	And I mean, this is definitely something that we have talked about, Jack, you know, right?
	And we have tried to tell people the power of this movement.
	I remember before Donald Trump and RFK appeared on the stage, your stage that you guys, obviously, I remember, put together.
	I was commissioned to, yeah, I was commissioned to do a poll.
	I was thinking that a lot of the stuff that we were actually asking voters about, now that we know, and now we know is Maha, right?
	I was thinking that some of it would just be a certain group of the population.
	I was blown away how these positions cut across all these different demographics.
	I mean, it was some weird way you were able to find this unity message with the guy in like a working class auto worker in southeastern Michigan and the rural cat lady who smells like petroli oil in Vermont.
	I mean, it was unbelievable the wide breadth of demographics that supported this.
	And, you know, we just don't hear about it anymore.
	I mean, it was great to put the coalition together and to win an election.
	But since then, there's been nothing exactly, like you just said it, Jack.
	Where's Nicole Shanahan?
	Like, why are these tools not being used?
	And I don't mean to call her.
	You know what I'm saying?
	There are tools in the toolbox that are not being used.
	Right.
	We got CrewKid $52, $5.
	Hi, everyone.
	Hey, Rich.
	I'm probably going to have to be resigned to having a Kami as mayor of New York City voting straight rep in Nassau County.
	Well, at least you're not in New York directly then.
	You've escaped too further.
	Sorry to hear that, crew.
	But yeah, you probably are going to have a commie as mayor of New York.
	Let's be blunt.
	Well, this is to keep expanding on the Maha Miss, if we want to call it the Maha Miss.
	And maybe that will be one of the titles on the screen tomorrow during the show, Andrew, is the Maha Miss.
	Yeah, that's a good point.
	The Maha Miss.
	You probably get a guess.
	I'm getting some intel from some insiders that are very close to some major Maha faces and voices.
	I won't expose which ones, but they just confirmed as they're sitting next to them that they were not asked to do anything.
	I'm not going to say who it was or where it was or whatever.
	There was not an ask and there was a willingness to go out and campaign and help.
	And so I think that this is a really important point from the campaigning standpoint is that part of the platform that has to be part of this new MAGA tent that we have is that Maha poll within the tent has to be respected.
	It has to be talked about.
	It has to be addressed, especially at the gubernatorial level.
	I mean, and this is something to look ahead to next year.
	I mean, we've got some really important gubernatorial elections, including here in Arizona that, you know, Andy Biggs better be paying attention and saying a big part of my campaign has to be about involving the Maha moms and the people that care about.
	And I have a question, actually, Rich, maybe you'd be good on this.
	So take it, rewind the clock back to 2021.
	Yunkin wins by, it looks about, was it 64,000 votes, something like that?
	It was 50.6% to 48.6%.
	Pretty close.
	63,200.
	Yeah, pretty darn close.
	And Yunkin is an exceptionally good candidate for the state of Virginia.
	I mean, he's, you know, he's polished.
	He's pretty moderate, really, but was able to rally behind the base.
	Also, we had this dynamic with Loudoun County where you had the daughter with the trans situation, the bathroom, get sexually assaulted.
	And then the father ends up having that viral video where he's getting like, I don't know, like escorted out of some city council meeting or whatever, right?
	Or school board meeting.
	So you had all this dynamic.
	It was like the first touch point.
	And that engaged women, right?
	Because they saw what was happening to their kids at school.
	It also engaged men, got them really fired up, and you had Glenn Young come in and say, we're not going to let this happen anymore.
	What is the dynamic?
	Is it all maha?
	Do we just have that short of memories?
	Like, where is all of that stuff?
	I mean, we go back to 2024.
	President Trump played that, you know, they're for they, them.
	He's for us, right?
	So like, where is that issue polling right now?
	Where are women on that issue?
	Or is it just, are men the ones that are more concerned about their daughters getting assaulted in some bathroom by a trans kid?
	I mean, they are, but, and, and just to remind everybody, you know, when you're looking at married versus unmarried and parental demographics, um, across the country and in most states, married women, even married white women, uh still vote Republican, right?
	But in Virginia, that's not the case.
	So it actually took that specific issue going on to narrow the margin because Terry McCall still did win married educated women, but it narrowed the margin.
	Now, married men was a blown margin.
	It was something like in our polling, it was almost 30 points.
	I think it ended up being 23 or something.
	So Youngin won married men by this massive amount.
	I think, and the exit polls I told people in the morning, people take it with a grain.
	There's a lot of conflicting stuff.
	There's all this background on why that is.
	But I still do think that it's productive to look at what people have been saying, which we were just talking about the other day, Andrew, right?
	Winsome Sears missed the mark here.
	She spent, we were doing an analysis of what she spent her advertising on.
	She focused on that issue as if it was a primary or secondary dominant issue to voters.
	And it's just a lesson of know your crowd.
	It was not.
	It was a tertiary issue, which is, again, why I always implore people to do a rank distribution when you're testing issues.
	Don't ask them to pick one or two issues.
	It's just not good enough.
	Do a rank distribution and you'll know where people's overall sentiment lies and how much weight they're giving to each issue.
	This was economic constantly.
	Cost of living is too high.
	In this area, Jack and I were discussing this earlier.
	This is not New Jersey.
	These people are concerned about the government shutdown.
	They are, and Yunkin was magical at this.
	He walked and chewed gum at the same time.
	He used those issues that were in the news at the time to his advantage, but he didn't just harp on them and ignore people's economic despair.
	He talked about grocery prices.
	Let's be real.
	The Winston Sears campaign did not do that.
	They didn't.
	You can see it in the ad revenue.
	I mean, they spent millions on just that issue alone.
	And voters were screaming at them.
	You know, we're not con if you give somebody a choice between an issue that they think about values-based or a way of living issue, maybe, or something like that.
	It's important to them.
	But when they have economic issues, I mean, directly, pocketbook, and they're thinking about it every week when the paycheck hits or every month when they have to pay their mortgage.
	I mean, this is a no-brainer.
	The economic issues will come first.
	And I do think the right, which does in the voters' minds control the government, they have not been focused enough on domestic issues.
	That's just clear.
	Every poll says it.
	Every voter screams it.
	We got a couple more messages.
	Brandon B. Ball, 13, gave $5 and says, hey, guys, watching on my break at work.
	God bless you all.
	Cliff, it's good to see you on the stream again.
	Blake, thank you for the help on my research paper.
	I almost wish I couldn't have helped him because the question was, what are all the ways Britain is in decline?
	And the answer is there's like infinity reasons it's in decline.
	Let's go look.
	Glad I could help with that.
	Uh-oh, I made my Diet Coke explode here.
	Again, it happens.
	It happens.
	They explode.
	Just get it away.
	Three minutes until but I'm glad I could help you with that, Brandon.
	I just wish Britain was a little better.
	And then Naniak says, the people on Twitter telling women leaders to go home and shut up does not help college-educated white women to join the movement.
	Look at how Allie's been treated.
	I haven't followed that ongoing thing.
	I assume that's Allie Beth Stuckey.
	I will say Charlie was always a fan of Ali Beth Stuckey.
	Oh, yeah.
	Big supporter of hers.
	She's a great woman.
	So I don't know what people have been saying there.
	I will say, big picture, Twitter drama probably doesn't decide elections one way or the other.
	No, it does not.
	But, you know, it's also not good.
	Like we were saying earlier, there were people saying, like, I'm not going to vote because X, Y, Z, dumb reason.
	And guys, you've got to vote.
	In the end, that is who decides who holds offices in this country.
	And you can't do things unless you hold offices in this country.
	So if you don't vote, you are seceding.
	You are basically quitting and taking your ball and going home, you know, until they, you know, the people who did win the election just go and take your ball from you, too.
	Until they seize the means of ball bouncing.
	Yes.
	One minute until polls close in New Jersey.
	Oh, boy.
	One minutes.
	You're in line.
	Stay in line.
	If you want to run to Wawa and pick up some Wawa coffee and donuts for people who are waiting in line over there in Ocean County, Toms River, Lakewood, just go out there, be that guy, be that helper.
	I know, I think I remember last year, people were, you know, people were sending like DoorDash, you know, just like random DoorDash orders to the lines, to the polling places, especially in some of these places where they kept it open later.
	Like, by the way, maybe that's even something, Tyler, maybe that's even something we could do for the people of Chester County because they're going to be out there till 10 p.m. tonight in Pennsylvania.
	Pennsylvania, most of the state in 66 of the 67 counties, you have one more minute to vote.
	But in Chester County, you have two more hours.
	I'm trying to run some.
	I'm looking at numbers on, I'm just continuing to watch the Virginia race here.
	I'd say biggest red flag we've got.
	Fairfax is 36% in.
	They still are holding back their votes.
	They're at about the overall.
	When you look at it, this race is tied.
	It has a 2,000-vote difference.
	And you have almost all of Loudoun in.
	You have Alexandria is ahead of the overall numbers.
	Fairfax is about tied with the overall numbers, but Norfolk is ahead.
	Richmond City, that one's going to be ugly.
	That one's mostly not in.
	But we also have very little of Chesapeake in.
	That's going to be a Republican city that's pretty large.
	We have a lot of Virginia Beach out.
	We're winning that by 10 right now.
	We have a few red counties that are still 0% in the hinterland.
	I think this could be going down.
	I know the prediction markets show it favoring Jones, but I think this will be very close either way.
	Halifax is.
	This will be close.
	Yeah, so Rich, we go back to Chesterfield County, which is the suburbs, the sort of wealthier suburbs outside of Richmond.
	That's right.
	And it's breaking for Jay Jones right now, 51 to 48.
	So super tight, super tight.
	Where does that number need to end up tonight as a good indicator of what Miaris' likelihood of winning this race are?
	Well, remember, too, we do get those early dumps that occur, right?
	And then this will even up a little bit.
	Yunkin won Chesterfield County with 51.8% of the vote.
	McAuliffe had a little over 47% of the vote.
	So, I mean, look, there's obviously he'll do better and worse in some counties and others.
	Virginia Beach was mentioned before.
	He's actually outperforming Yunkin by about a point so far in Virginia Beach.
	And there's still a lot of vote out there, but he does need to win Chesterfield County.
	It's hard for me to imagine because of the demographics just being so similar and so many areas around the state.
	And we talked about it before.
	It's hard for me to imagine Mayar as winning the state without winning Chesterfield.
	It's just, I mean, without getting too much into the weeds, it can be close.
	I mean, close.
	But he's got to eke it out.
	And then another thing that I am looking at is that Fairfax right now, he's running about four points behind.
	We still do have a lot of vote out and a lot of election day vote, which will look different.
	But Yunkin did about five points, actually, about five points better than what we're seeing right now.
	So that's got to pick up the pace.
	Yeah, we're 48.
	48% in.
	48% in in Chesterfield.
	So that's a good bellwether county if we're looking at.
	We're looking.
	So if a Republican wins that, then that's going to be helpful.
	If the Democrat wins that, that's a bad sign.
	And it's a big red flag.
	That was the big red flag in 21 to even all the left-wing pundits.
	I mean, their heads were exploding because Chesterfield is, we were just talking about how does the Republicans party speak to especially more affluent women?
	This is an area out, like you said.
	I mean, this is Richmond Burbs.
	I mean, this is a difficult area for Trump, a difficult area for other Republicans.
	And Mayaris is considerably outperforming the other Republican candidates here.
	The vote that's out, the question is, is it favorable enough to put him over the top?
	There was one batch that came in before.
	I thought it would be a little bit better for him.
	It wasn't, but it's still that it's this close.
	He definitely has a chance.
	Just to let people know, too, in 21, Virginia will do this.
	You'll get a big chunk of the early vote.
	The election day vote will come in.
	And then some areas will say, oops, I did forget this early vote.
	And they'll throw it in there.
	And sometimes a little hard to, you know, to parse out.
	But Yunkin and McAuliffe went back and forth all night.
	In fact, the race was called for Yunkin when Chesterfield had a little bit left on the table and McAuliffe was just a hair ahead.
	And then when that last batch was counted, it put Yunkin over.
	So, I mean, it still can be close, you know, but he's got to get it closer.
	And I mean, we're getting to the point where some of these counties, so far, with the exception of Fairfax, are doing pretty good reporting their votes.
	So I'm not sure we're going to have the similar situation that we had in 21.
	We will see.
	But one thing that is a bit, you know, if I had to play Devil's Advocate here, Louding County, that three-point underperformance, I know it's just one county, but it kind of is a big deal.
	And why I'm looking towards Chesterfield to see where he can make it up.
	Because, I mean, a three-point underperformance if Yunkin won by roughly two, it means a very close race.
	It means a like 50.5 guys, you know, kind of win.
	And that's a nail biter.
	You know, underperformance somewhere can wreck that, can wipe that away.
	So, you know, it's that close.
	It really is that good.
	This will be a very close race.
	That's what all indicators show.
	We're going to be counting votes in Virginia for the next couple, you know, hour and a half here before we get a better idea.
	I really think that.
	We have Erica Rice donated $10 and says, I watched the full live stream in 2024.
	Is that video still posted?
	I haven't been able to find it after losing Charlie this year.
	I would love the opportunity to go back and re-watch it.
	If it's not on YouTube, it's got to be on Rumble.
	It's on Rumble.
	I know for sure.
	I actually was looking at it earlier today.
	It's still on Rumble, by the way.
	I checked it.
	It's 11 hours and 13 minutes long.
	That's exactly right.
	So if you go in, if you go in and watch, and Blake, you and I were chatting, I think we went from noon to about 1 a.m.
	Something like that.
	Or no wait.
	Now that without doing local time, it was like 2 p.m.
	It was like 2 p.m. Eastern.
	That would be 13 hours.
	So no wait.
	It would have been noon to about 11 then.
	Yeah, yeah.
	I think we went low.
	And then we also got Sunflower Jen gave five.
	And she says, first election night without Charlie for me.
	We miss him so much.
	And we are really grateful for all of you keeping this alive.
	Thank you.
	Thank you, Jen.
	Thank you for tuning in, letting us continue to.
	I want to bring us back to the original one because when we figured this out, so just to give some context here, the first stream that we did was, I think it was 2018.
	I know that we got a ton of eyeballs during the 2020 race.
	It was 2018.
	2020.
	It was like we did our first, let's kick the tires on this thing.
	And it was like super rough.
	And we just were like, let's go live because people are interested in talking about this.
	And the response that we got heading into 2020, where we went hard in 2020, and that took years off our life being up like every night for like weeks, it felt like it was like months, it felt like.
	We got a stream.
	We got a stream.
	But we did this stream.
	The whole idea of doing the stream was to give people an alternative to this just terrible product that standard media gave, which they gave no consensus on what was going on.
	They weren't watching things.
	They, you know, they were have interjection from a bunch of random pundits that have like their own agendas and everything else.
	And, you know, here what you get as you're following, we're just feeding to you things as they're coming in.
	And we're telling you, you know, some real life people on the ground, especially with our team that we have at Turning Point Action.
	You know, and obviously we have Cliff with Citizens Alliance and so many other friends.
	But this is where we just kind of deliver more.
	And we're going to keep doing that.
	We're going to do that.
	You know, this is the first big election that we don't have Charlie with us, as we said in the chat.
	But yeah, the next election, which will be a year from now, that will be the first big midterm since, you know, obviously Charlie being taken from us.
	And so this is a warm-up.
	And I think it would be really important for us to just mention while we're on the stream right now, President Trump put out a really important true social today.
	And his true social said, hey, guys, and I'm paraphrasing, but hey, guys, the radical left is out of control.
	Regardless of what happens with the election tonight, we are going to be in a world of hurt if we don't get rid of the filibuster.
	And we can debate this a little bit because I'm sure Blake might have different viewpoint on this, but I agree with the president.
	If we don't get rid of the filibuster, we're going to be walking ourselves right into a radical government that's hijacked by the left, where they pack the Supreme Court, they make D.C. and Puerto Rico states, and we add four more Senate seats that are going to flip the Senate almost permanently.
	And you have a number of different other things that they're trying to do.
	Of course, we know getting illegals to vote, as we're going to see, I think, in New York City tonight.
	And so you have a hijacking of our country, a hijacking of the Constitution.
	And I thought it was really interesting that he posted that this morning.
	And I thought that was really good debate fodder as we sit here and we watch some of the returns come in.
	I wanted to, you know, I want to throw, and Rich, I know you got to run soon.
	I want to throw it to you.
	You mentioned something earlier here.
	And I know that you came on the main show, the Daily Show, talking about this.
	And you mentioned about the focus between domestic issues that voters want versus what they feel is sort of an overdue focus on foreign policy.
	And to be clear, President Trump's had a lot of foreign policy wins, but at the same time, that also leaves this opening on domestic policy.
	What are you seeing and unpack what you were saying there?
	Yeah, I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain this, but it's come down to this.
	I mean, in a state like Virginia and New Jersey, and even New Jersey, not less so Virginia, but New Jersey, it's a great example of this, Jack.
	I mean, he did incredible for a Republican presidential candidate in that state.
	And, you know, so you have voters like that that are new to the Trump coalition in that they voted for him.
	But then we have the other voters that you and I have drilled on for years, which are these disconnected, disaffected.
	They feel like the American dream is gone, you know, that their leaders have abandoned them.
	And they did not vote for this much focus on foreign policy.
	I don't know how to do this any other way.
	This is who I am.
	I'm brutally honest.
	This has been too much attention on foreign affairs and foreign policy successes cannot save a president from his approval rating declining over things like this.
	And then the party suffering over it.
	I know he's done great things.
	That's not the point.
	It really isn't.
	They elected him to what we hear all the time is, what's going on?
	Why is he over there?
	I voted for him to fix Biden's economy.
	I wanted him to bring the economy back that we had under his first administration.
	This is what we overwhelmingly hear.
	And then there is, and I know we're trying to avoid it here, but I guess, but there's a rift going on in the actual coalition.
	And the larger side of this coalition feels that Donald Trump is literally their last chance to put that American dream back on the board.
	And they want focus on that.
	Laser focus, Jack.
	And they're not getting it.
	They're not seeing it.
	Did you look at our latest polling?
	It's overwhelming.
	Go back to domestic issues, please.
	They're begging for it.
	First New Jersey data is in.
	It is, yeah.
	Since it just came in.
	And Rich, just to say, I mean, I think there's a lot of truth to that.
	And I think that, you know, if we see, and we saw Mom Donnie, by the way, play into that opening when he said, like, I care about New York.
	I don't want to go.
	He's going anywhere.
	He, of course, lied the way communists all lie, but like, that's not the point.
	Is that when he came out publicly, every single time he did this, he talked about left-wing populism, resentment, populism, and he talked about local issues all day long.
	Jen Lou $50.
	I don't understand why Republicans don't come out in off-cycle elections.
	And that's something we're going to be talking about that a lot because it's going to be an issue next year as well because it is a change.
	In 2010, in 2014, the narrative was all the Republican advantage in midterm off-cycle elections and that it was Obama who had those loosely affiliated voters who only turned out every four years.
	Well, Blake, I mean, to that point, too, we're going to see some differences between some of these elections because some of these elections are going to have a similar turnout number between Republicans and Democrats, which in the context of some of these races, that's pretty good because the Democrats actually have a ground game.
	In some of these states, we don't have as much of a ground game.
	The Republicans don't have as much of a ground game.
	And so the big, big question will be is not just turnout, but also how do we register more Republicans?
	And this is, again, this is the Scott Pressler, you know, screaming from the rooftops.
	There are some states we have a Republican voter registration advantage.
	There are many states, including deep red Republican states that you would recognize as a Republican state that we don't have a Republican voter registration advantage.
	The ones that we win all the time, but they have lower turnouts.
	And so it's really important to look at this and say, okay, this is a numbers game where we've got to register more voters in some of these states.
	And then we've got to actually put the boots on the ground to chase the voters to turn them out in order to win.
	And this is really important when we talk about young voters because young voters, first-time voters in particular, they need help voting, just like seniors need help voting.
	Hey, everybody, Andrew Colvett, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show.
	Charlie understood that to lead, he needed to learn.
	Hillsdale College was ready to teach him.
	While busy running his company, teaching America's youth and raising a beautiful family, Charlie still found time to complete 31 Hillsdale College free online courses.
	He talked about it the last time he spoke on his podcast with Hillsdale's president, Dr. Larry Arn.
	Hillsdale is the cutting edge, and I mean it.
	It is America's greatest college.
	You are a force of nature, Charlie Kirk.
	One of these days, I'm going to give you an honorary degree.
	That would be the honor of my life, but I got a lot more learning yet to do.
	And I say this, the Hillsdale courses have changed my life.
	Through Hillsdale College's free online courses, Charlie studied the Bible, the classics, the American founding, and through his relentless pursuit of truth, became not only a great American, but a good man.
	Charlie's gone, but his spirit of hard work and lifelong learning carry on.
	Each of us can follow his example and pick up where he left off.
	So learn like Charlie did at charlie for hillsdale.com.
	That's charlie for hillsdale.com.
	I'll never forget, actually, and Rich, I have one more question for you before we send you on your way, but I'll never forget this when we were doing Turning Point Action and some of the education that we were getting from the field of these low-prop voters.
	You'd have guys with like Trump shrines in their garages, and they would tell you, yeah, they'd voted, but it was like they literally, they just filled out some like online poll or something.
	You know, they literally, and I think some of it was like too proud to admit they didn't know how to register or something.
	I mean, some of these people that are really on board, they are completely apolitical in every other facet of their life.
	And so you do have to hold their hands.
	You have to show them how to register, what to do with the ballot.
	You get just like 101, like civics 101 with these people.
	And you just have to kind of encourage them.
	So there's a lot of work to do, but I do think that we're going to see some of this enthusiasm gap, Rich, you're going to see balance out when it comes to a general election.
	I got to believe it.
	You get somebody like JD Vance on the ballot, you're going to probably get some of those suburban educated conservatives that we've lost in the Trump era.
	I think they're going to come back home.
	I hope.
	It's TBD, but I'm going to hope for that.
	But Rich, we haven't talked about this with you yet.
	And so I want to pivot to the Momdani race.
	First question is: what is your, if you just had to crystal ball it, where do you think that race is going to end?
	How much is Momdani going to win by?
	Or do you even think that Cuomo has a shot?
	First question.
	And second of all, what are the takeaways from that race?
	I know everybody likes to cherry-pick good signs out of, you know, which is good, you know, which is good for their side.
	I get it.
	But that electorate looks young enough for me for him to run away from this.
	I just don't see any path for Cuomo at all.
	I just don't.
	I'm not even going to entertain it at this point.
	I know higher turnout typically was considered to have favored Cuomo.
	In the primary, that seemed to benefit Momdani that there was this fall off of certain voters, but he needed younger, under 45 voters to really come out gangbuster for him.
	Just so people understand the record for New York City for mayoral election was before this, because this will break it, was Giuliani versus Dinkins.
	And then he eked it out.
	Later, Giuliani became very popular.
	But he needed that high turnout at that time to beat Mayor Dinkins to overcome the registration advantage.
	He needed a lot of normies to come out and say, I've had it.
	Crime is crazy.
	I'm fed up.
	In this case, it's not super old.
	I mean, that's just what Cuomo needed.
	He needed older.
	Yeah, and it's not there.
	Is it Decision Desk has made it?
	Decision Desk just made the call that Cheryl wins.
	Cheryl has won.
	Yeah, I was honestly getting somewhere.
	Yeah, it is.
	And I was, honestly, guys, he's running behind in Ocean where he ran behind last time.
	I know that, you know, that wasn't fully counted, but at 41% in, that last batch just did not go the way that he needed it to go.
	And in Hudson, she's running considerably ahead of Murphy.
	And again, we're about half the vote in.
	So we kind of know, you know, that first third is going to be really blue.
	And then after that, you've got to make up some ground.
	You have to.
	So I know a lot of, I know there were some people that put in a lot of effort there.
	I applaud them for that effort.
	You know, next get them next time, Tiger, you know, but it just wasn't there this time, guys.
	The independent vote share was too low.
	It was too low.
	You just didn't have the turnout with independents that you would need to make up the voter registration disadvantage that Republicans have in New Jersey.
	New Jersey has such a bad disparity between Republicans and Democrats and voter registration numbers that you depend on a more conservative, independent turnout.
	And again, I'm going to tell you this.
	I mean, you have independents on the ballot.
	Not good, right?
	That's just not helpful to Republicans in New Jersey.
	And the Democrats know that.
	And that's why they fund and help these candidates to split because a few thousand votes here and a few thousand votes there goes a long way to helping you win a gubernatorial.
	And again, the Republicans are really bad at this.
	You know who was really good at this?
	John McCain always split his opponents, his opponents' vote by getting Green Party candidates on the ballot and independents that split them.
	John McCain, you can disagree with John McCain all you want.
	The guy knew how to win elections.
	Well, it was just, I mean, this is just a technique element of elections is that you've got to register more voters to give yourself a shot.
	You've got to chase those voters.
	And then you can't split your voters, especially amongst independents who lean your way.
	I mean, Jack in every poll, right, was polling ahead almost 20 points with independents in New Jersey.
	It's just if they don't show up to vote, then it doesn't matter.
	It doesn't matter how far ahead you are.
	It's not going to impact you.
	Here's a bad sign in Virginia, Rich.
	It looks like Jay Jones is outperforming Kamala Harris in Loudon County.
	That is.
	I am looking at that, and they did adjust it that there's a little bit more vote out there.
	I just don't know how he's going to get to 44%, which is what, I mean, look, you know, obviously that's a county where Democrats used to have a trouble in.
	You know, I mean, just going back, not that long.
	You know, George Bush did great in Loudoun County.
	It's just one of those where if Republicans don't meet a certain floor, which Junkin, he got 44% of the vote in Loudoun.
	Right now, Mayoris is, he's just, he needs a few more points.
	I don't know how 6% of the vote that's been counted already, 6% more of the total vote cast.
	I don't know how that's going to get him another three points.
	So it looks like he will fall there.
	He'll need to make it up in other areas like Virginia Beach, where he is running ahead.
	But you just, yeah, that was a warning sign.
	And again, if he does not make this up in Chesterfield, there were another few votes counted in Chesterfield.
	It barely moved the needle.
	If he doesn't make it up in Chesterfield, I mean, the one good thing, and I'll leave it at this, but I mean, again, it's, I mean, I'm really getting in the weeds here, and it's just not that much.
	It's not that significant.
	But it does look like the mountain vote is the share of the overall state is higher than I expected it to be.
	I thought it'd be like 19 or 20% if they were lucky.
	But, you know, it does look like it's 2021.
	So that gives him a little bit to offset some of the underperformances in other areas.
	But, I mean, guys, you got to hit these benchmarks.
	At the end of the day, I mean, he's got to win Chesterfield.
	You just, you can't lose that and then win the state.
	I don't see it.
	All right.
	Well, Rich, you have been very generous with your time tonight.
	We appreciate you, brother.
	Appreciate you, brother.
	And have a good night.
	And we're going to stay on it here on the stream.
	And just last thing I'll say, still looks locked in.
	48% of the vote, 5148 in Jay Jones' favor in Chesterfield.
	So we haven't gotten any more of that vote.
	So we're going to watch that as a bellwether for the Virginia AG race.
	Take care, Rich.
	All the best, guys.
	See you soon.
	Sounds good.
	Thanks, Rich.
	I want to bring Cliff in here.
	Cliff, you know, we're looking at, you know, and obviously, you know, we want to say congrats to everybody, turning point action, NJ Chase, early vote action, to everyone who fought hard in New Jersey.
	We always knew this was a Hail Mary.
	We always knew that this was going to be something that, again, it was not supposed to be a competitive race at all.
	We were trying to fight against the trend.
	But Cliff, so looking at some of this going ahead towards maybe a 2028, looking at some of the trends, Cliff, what are some of the pieces that you'd want to put together for the infrastructure that we're going to need to build out in New Jersey if Republicans want to remain competitive there?
	Yeah, well, let me start off by saying, you know, I appreciate all of the activists.
	You guys getting me there?
	You got me right.
	I appreciate all the activists that have stepped up to help with this.
	Look, I'm going to be honest, guys, 18 minutes is pretty rough.
	18 minutes in to get that call.
	I mean, obviously, Ocean County did not go the way we wanted it to.
	It was supposed to be a stronghold.
	We were hoping to see tremendous numbers there.
	Republicans are doing okay, but the fact that Democrats are adding votes, and like you said, I mean, Tyler, one of the things that you just kind of hit me with is this idea that we really worked to turn out Republican voters, right?
	And so they work to turn out independents.
	I'm not blaming anyone.
	But, you know, our whole model is: look, there's enough Republicans, or you hope there are, that can win this thing.
	So, no, look, I think we got to learn from this.
	We got to go back to the drawing board, figure out what worked, what didn't.
	I'm going to probably take a week to two weeks to really do a deep dive on the data to see where is it that we targeted.
	Where did we have some success?
	Where did we not?
	What did that look like compared to what the campaigns were spending in those areas, both Democrat and Republican?
	I'm really hoping that he, you know, gives it a little bit of a comeback here.
	I'm not saying he's got a shot at it, but I want to kind of see where our projection came in with the total votes.
	And if it falls way short of the 3 million, then I feel like, okay, at least we understood we had to have a record turnout.
	But yeah, I don't really have an answer other than, you know, we gave it a shot here.
	I appreciate all the work that everybody did.
	And I think it's about us figuring out where do we put resources for 2026 that can best be utilized.
	Well, I mean, I could tell you right away on New Jersey.
	Here's the first thing that I will say.
	I mean, there has to be significant upgrades in how many ballot chasers that are put out into the field.
	It's not going to be enough to have a few hundred people out into the field.
	You know, Cliff, yeah, all by himself that's out there.
	It has to be a well-funded, well-oiled machine of thousands of full-time people who are chasing people and making sure that they get their ballot in earlier.
	And, you know, again, this isn't something, again, that we endorse.
	So we say this all the time at turning point action.
	We don't endorse the Democrats' playbook of early ballots, early votes, the way that they've changed these elections and turned them into multi-week, multi-month processes.
	However, in the states where they've done that, they're getting the advantage.
	And when you have, again, here in Arizona, when we won Arizona by the widest margin last election cycle, we stayed out ahead of the Democrats by seven to 10 points throughout the entire election cycle and early voting.
	The Republicans are going to have to do that, where you have to be seven to 10 points ahead of your own percentage of how many total voters that you have.
	It's ideal to be seven to ten points ahead of the Democrats, which is what we did here in Arizona, of how many total votes have been cast.
	And that's really important for, again, the lessons.
	This is just, this isn't like really difficult science here.
	This is just if I'm winning the baseball game, if I want to win the baseball game, the World Series just wrapped up, I would rather be up a few points in early innings than trying to make up points, make up runs in the later innings.
	Well, and this is what we're doing.
	And this is the problem.
	Right.
	And this is what we learned going from 2022 to 2024 was that in 2024, it wasn't just a couple of weeks at the end where these ballot efforts, chasing the ballot efforts went into play.
	It was an entire year of building infrastructure, of building those coalitions, of building the connections on the ground, finding and identifying who those highly motivated people are who wanted to be county captains and precinct captains and sort of the chief activists for their area and then working those universes up and down with the doors, knocking on them, going after the ballots.
	And so you just need, you just need more infrastructure and more time.
	That being said, though, this is you look at where New Jersey is right now.
	This is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago, right?
	So when we're looking at this in alternative, people are going to go, oh my gosh, how could this happen?
	This wasn't supposed to be a competitive race at all.
	New Jersey is a blue state, we were told.
	New Jersey is a state that couldn't possibly elect a Republican.
	But when you dig into these numbers and you look at the trend line on this, there's going to be a lot of things that we take away from it.
	And I really do think having a more flushed out and long-term infrastructure there is going to be a huge investment that I hope to see, by the way, from the National Party level.
	And then working as well with these various groups that, you know, obviously we're all members of.
	We've got a few more messages.
	Mike's wife, U.S., donated five and says.
	I'm breaking into the Twizzlers now from the Halloween candy.
	Let me know when I need to move to the Kit Kat zone.
	And guys, I want to be in the Kit Kat zone right now.
	Where we are right now too, just keep in mind, we still have a lot of election ahead of us.
	We have, obviously, the Minnesota mayoral election, the Minneapolis mayoral election.
	We have the New York City mayoral election.
	We have the Arizona election that we're tracking.
	We already know how California is going to go, but we'll talk about that and the impact that's going to have on the country.
	So yeah, a lot of election left here.
	We're looking at this in New Jersey as it's coming in.
	It's estimated that about the remainder of the vote is going to be about split.
	And so that's just, again, they're fairly evenly split.
	Right now, Jack is down, give or take, about 200,000 votes, which is a significant increase.
	It's more than two times the amount that he lost by last time.
	So, you know, if he's got some places that he needs to make up votes, it's going to have to happen in a lot of different places across New Jersey that are more rural.
	Again, the likelihood of that happening is probably low to be real, but we still have a lot of these Republican areas have not been counted or reported yet.
	Speaking of Kit Kat Zone, Kit Kat Maher also donated.
	I'm in New Jersey and my county, Ocean County, is red, but we are stuck with these lib losers ruining the area and I can't move yet.
	Thank you so much for doing the show, everyone.
	Miss Charlie so much.
	We all do.
	He'd want to be here.
	He'd want to be here even with, you know, tonight's a rough night, but those are, that's the more important night to be here.
	It's a last year, that was a celebration.
	That was a lot of fun.
	But where you really need people, where you really need to be out there fighting is when it's tough, when there's losses, when people get disappointed, when they feel down.
	You have to always be rallying people, motivating people, getting them back up to fight again because the fight is forever.
	And really, it only ends when you decide to quit and go home.
	Look, we all sat here with Charlie Kirk on election night in 2022.
	And we all know that that race, that night, did not go the way any of us wanted.
	I think Reddit made a whole, you know, a whole kind of thing about it on us.
	And look, we're not going to play that game anymore because we understood that what Charlie Kirk did was he looked at 2022.
	He understood it from a lessons learned perspective.
	And then he incorporated those lessons into the work and the infrastructure and the plan for 2024 and the coalition and the low-prop voter work that was done in that year.
	So what are we going to do tonight with 2025?
	We are going to learn.
	We are going to learn the lessons and we are going to apply those to these midterm races, which are coming up.
	Guess what?
	One year away.
	So we know that polls are closing across most of Pennsylvania right now, by the way.
	It's 8.30.
	And we know, I believe, New York is 9 p.m., right?
	So New York is New York is a glorious blue state where they take approximately like an entire election cycle to count the ballots.
	Count the ballots, right?
	Got to allow people to get in their mail ballots from Guam or whatever.
	I mean, I'm going to tell you, probably one of the most interesting things that's going to happen tonight is this New York City race.
	And even no matter what, even if Mom Donnie takes it as expected, it's going to be interesting to me how much he takes it by because there seems to be a debate over that.
	There could also be a pain breaking.
	Decision desk HQ projects Jay Jones to win the Virginia AG.
	Really?
	Wow.
	Wow.
	I'm just on that one.
	Mikey, you're going to sit here and say something funny, and I'm going to go eat real quick, and then I'll be back.
	Yeah, you're going to sit here and you're going to entertain the audience, and I have to go get some food.
	That's rough.
	I'll be right back.
	This is wild.
	And of course, we're going to get the number real quick.
	You know, I'm looking at the numbers.
	It's 800,000 for Jay Jones.
	Jason Millarez at 790.
	That's with 47% in.
	Mikey is about to join us here in a second.
	He's getting locked in.
	But Tyler.
	So this is.
	And I just got to, I'm going to reiterate what I said when he was at 300,000 votes.
	We are being told, when we were told in the minutes, in the hours after Charlie Kirk's murder, that we have to unite, that we have to unite and stand against political violence.
	Well, in Virginia, and this type of rhetoric, which I certainly do agree, that we have to unite against that.
	And I'm more than willing to do so with anyone who's willing to do that.
	But now I see 800,000 people, many of whom are Democrats, just voted for Jay Jones, who's a guy who wants to kill my children, who wants to kill Tyler's children, who wants to kill the children of conservatives.
	He said this.
	He said this and emphatically harassed people about this.
	So how exactly are we the ones who need to unite when it was our friend who was murdered and it's the Democrats that in the numbers of hundreds of thousands are electing a candidate who has said he wants to kill our children?
	Mikey McCoy joins us now.
	Thank you for having me.
	It's like the Olympic race when you pass the baton.
	A little bit, yeah, I tapped in.
	Andrew's fueling up.
	Yeah, we're getting fuel.
	Yeah, I like what you said, Jack.
	There's 800,000 people that voted for this, and I just feel like...
	And more to come.
	More to come.
	And this is someone who didn't even threaten the life of two parents, loving parents, but then these two children then doubles and triples down on it and says, quote, only when people feel pain personally do they act on policy.
	That is the psyche of the left.
	We will use our political power, political violence.
	We will do whatever is necessary for you to feel pain so that you then act on policy.
	And coming out of the 24 presidential election, it was a huge win for Republicans.
	And I feel like Charlie used to always say this, complacency is a cancer.
	I feel like we just got way too comfortable.
	And it's going to be a blue sweep across the board.
	Like this is a blowout.
	Republicans have gotten destroyed.
	It's a blue bath.
	And it's just literally complacency is a cancer.
	And Republicans have gotten too comfortable.
	But also, Republicans are, they spend too much time in fighting than they do actually spending time on the wars and the battles that matter.
	And that is a sign that we have too much time on our hands.
	We are sitting back too comfortable that we are infighting.
	This is the debate that, you know, that was kind of brought up by Jack.
	He said, and sorry if I'm exposing you on this and you don't want me to say this, Jack.
	But you said, what did I say?
	What did I say?
	I say a lot of things, Tyler Boyer.
	Said, you said, I don't think Twitter fights matter with this stuff.
	And I disagree with you.
	And here's the reason why I disagree.
	There are types of e-drama that, because you were meant, because I was specifically referring to the people who were not calling you out, I promise.
	But what I'm saying to this is that, yeah, I think it does matter a little bit.
	And here's the reason why it matters: is because your best people that have to go out and do the door knocking and do the work are usually the people who are paying the most attention now in the public sphere on X and some other places, but mostly X.
	And those are the people that's where they go.
	I mean, we've seen it because our activists, our top activists, are all super active on X.
	And when you have drama on X, we've seen some of that this last year's couple.
	Here's what I've also been saying.
	And I have a tweet up right now talking about this.
	So I was specifically talking about conservatism or excuse me, criticism of Ali Bastucki.
	But I've also said that we've now seen the last few weeks of a bunch of people online who have spent their time engaged in e-drama, spent their time engaged in cancellation efforts and turf out efforts and just infighting rather than engaging in get out the vote efforts.
	And if you're not engaged in get out the vote efforts, if you're not out there holding rallies, if you're not out there working on this to fight in the elections, then you are basically helping the Democrats.
	And we've seen people, and I saw even this week, even Andrew Colvett just came back.
	And you know what I'm talking about.
	People were to your credit, by the way, you were out doing the work.
	You showed up to rallies, helping encourage our door knocking efforts that we saw in New Jersey and some other places.
	But, you know, not everybody was doing that.
	Some people have a lot of, I've seen a lot of conservatives, and I have a list.
	I certainly have a list.
	If anybody wants to come at me about this, I'm more than happy to drop receipts that didn't post a single thing about voting in this election.
	Or helping.
	Or promoting it.
	Or promoting it.
	Or appearing at turning point events or doing any of this stuff.
	Yeah, I just feel like when we're in fighting, it's our way of saying we have nobody else to fight.
	So we're just going to fight ourselves.
	Well, and guess what?
	And guess what?
	While we spent time doing that, what did the Democrats do?
	They won elections.
	Yeah, exactly.
	And I also think that there was super low-hanging fruit this election cycle with what Winsom Earl Sears chose to spend, you know, ad money on.
	You saw with Gavin Newsom, he told Charlie, he was like, the best ad that you guys had was, you know, Trump's for you, Kamala's for they, them.
	And that ad just like killed it.
	Why wasn't Winston Sears running ads saying, you know, I'm for your children.
	My opponent is not.
	My opponent has endorsed candidate and refused to condemn a candidate who wants to kill your children.
	I want to make sure that men cannot come in your children's locker rooms, your daughter's locker rooms.
	There's low-hanging fruit this election cycle.
	And I feel like we totally missed the opportunity.
	So, Cliff, let's extrapolate some of this.
	You know, what, if any, wins can we take from this?
	What are the losses that we need to make sure we fix moving forward?
	Yeah, so I think first off, you know, there's a lot of lessons here.
	I mean, Tyler probably was right to give me the warning that is, you know, if you're not going to permanently be somewhere, which is Jersey, you know, you don't have that infrastructure, you need to really think about is it worth it?
	And do you have a four to six year plan to be there?
	So I think that's a really good question.
	I still want to see where these election day results come in, right?
	I want to see just how bad it is.
	I want to see if some of the, you know, some of the on-the-ground work that we were doing led to people voting on election day, whether it did not or whether it did.
	I mean, we want to learn from that.
	The only wins that I'm still holding out on at the moment are a lot of these PA races down ballot.
	We're not going to win the retention races.
	I've said that for a year.
	I never lied to anybody about that.
	Those are pretty much impossible to win.
	I get a lot of people got excited about them, but they're not winnable.
	But all the down ballots are where we are pretty fascinated at the moment.
	And I want to see, you know, were the Democrats that good at turning people out that they got them to vote the entire ballot in Pennsylvania?
	Or are a lot of these people just coming in and bullet voting?
	But my biggest takeaway is, yeah, I mean, you got to pick the states where you have the resources and that you have the ability to win based on the demographics.
	And it can't be a one-stop shop.
	I mean, I think we need to figure out where we can go deep, where we can commit to for multiple years, multiple cycles.
	And I still think I want to look at these numbers and understand, you know, where it landed.
	Democrats showed up to vote.
	Republicans did not.
	That to me is not something I'm proud of.
	It's not an excuse.
	But at the end of the day, we've got to figure out how to fix that.
	I think that's on all of us.
	Well, and I think I still think Rich has the key insight here.
	It's domestic issues.
	It's the economy stupid.
	It's jobs.
	It's how much money people got in their bank account at the end of the month.
	But check this out.
	I mean, the media is going to run with this, right?
	That this is a referendum on Trump.
	So we've got to talk about it.
	We've got to be ready for this attack vector and what we're going to say to it.
	Play cut 229.
	Virginia.
	Different story in New Jersey, which we'll talk about later, where there are some very specific issues specific to New Jersey.
	In Virginia, this is a little bit more of a referendum on Donald Trump and the federal government.
	And right now, with 26% in, you're seeing a fairly significant lead, a 10-point lead for Abigail Spanberger.
	So, Jack, this is going to be a referendum on Trump media narrative, right?
	This is a referendum on Trump media narrative.
	I do not think that that is a fair conclusion to draw.
	First of all, do I think Trump should have gone out in New Jersey?
	Yes.
	Trump should have absolutely been out in New Jersey.
	We talk about this: working-class voters, the muscular class, the people that love Trump.
	They would have been motivated by that.
	The argument against putting Trump out in Jersey was that he was going to be a get-out-the-vote draw for Democrats, right?
	Well, you're losing, you're missing your best asset out on the field.
	Maybe he didn't want to be tied to a loss.
	I don't know what the exact rationale is here, but this is going to be the narrative for the next however many months.
	And we have to.
	And it's going to color the midterm narrative now.
	Which maybe is good, by the way.
	Can I just say, maybe it's good.
	You got guys like Cliff Maloney and Scott Presley.
	You've got turning point action.
	We're out in the field.
	And there is still a reticence within sort of the donor class on the right to not want to participate in ballot chasing, in door knocking, and get out the vote.
	And that's the infrastructure piece that we have to make sure is robust if we're going to compete, especially in off-cycle elections.
	Again, my hope is that we're going to be able to make up the Delta in a presidential election year.
	But, you know, that's a hope and a prayer.
	We have to actually do the work and build the machine if we're going to get there.
	We have Blake Neff joining us again here.
	We have Blake Neff joining us again.
	So we have a new exit poll.
	Trump was not a factor by 47% of voters in New Jersey and by 47% in Virginia.
	And Andrew, to your point, this is really simple.
	It's just more turnout, which means more ballot chasers.
	Yeah.
	Tyler's chiming in.
	Tyler ran into the studio.
	We're going to look at this and go, how did we lose?
	Well, it's really simple.
	We didn't have enough bodies to chase boats.
	Tyler just said, people are going to look at this and say, how did we lose?
	Well, it's really simple.
	We didn't have enough bodies in the field chasing boats.
	I'll just be really honest.
	I think it's a little bit both and Winsome Sears.
	I never had strong hopes that she was going to win.
	You look at Governor Yunkin.
	He had the tailwinds behind him with the Loudoun County stuff.
	He's a, you know, what is he, 6'7 ⁇ ?
	He's like this huge guy.
	He's so tall.
	He's so tall.
	He's got this really polished demeanor, you know, the quarter zips, the vests.
	Like he's just, he's straight out of central casting.
	And Winsom Sears just had a different demeanor.
	It wasn't, I felt like, and it's not about her being black and him being white.
	Maybe it is about her being a woman and him being a man.
	That's possible.
	But I just felt like she just didn't have this captivating presence.
	And I never thought that it was going to go her way.
	So I'm not even going to look that much into Winsome Sears.
	She seems like a lovely lady.
	She did win, you know, she had the, rode the coattails of Yunkin in 2021.
	But anyways, I just think it's, I think, yeah, more bodies in the field, but you also have to field the right candidates.
	Listen, she won the Republican primary.
	She got the right to do this, to run.
	But I just didn't have great hope.
	But that being said, I thought Chittarelli was going to do, I thought it was going to take longer to call that race, Jack.
	You were out there campaigning for him.
	He had momentum.
	It was still a long shot.
	Let's be fair.
	This was a long shot in a blue state of New Jersey.
	I thought he was going to have a little bit more.
	Yeah, well, and I will say this, by the way, he had no momentum until September 10th.
	And it's just true.
	There was no excitement in that race, and people were just not paying attention to it at all.
	And that was something that happened that made people go turn around and look and say, you know what?
	Maybe we do give it a try.
	And maybe we do actually focus something in.
	And I think that you didn't see that until September 10th took place.
	And so that's what really catalyzed this.
	Now, that being said, it was only like two months of runway.
	And it's not like people immediately started deploying to New Jersey.
	So it was really this one-month crapshoot to see could, you know, could there be enough momentum to overcome what Tyler was talking about earlier, the massive Democrat registration advantage.
	And no, it wasn't enough this time around.
	But when you look at it, and I'm just going to say it again, New Jersey tonight is where Pennsylvania was a couple of cycles ago.
	Here's one of the key differences that I'm picking up, and I want to toss this to Cliff, is that Trump isn't going to be on the ballot in the midterms.
	He was on the ballot tonight.
	He's not going to be on the ballot in midterms.
	So how do you engage those people that would come out and vote for Trump, but aren't even paying attention to the election if Trump isn't there?
	That's what a low prop or even a no prop voter is, no propensity voter.
	My argument saying, going to Maha is saying you've got to go to each individual coalition of the Trump 2024 winning team and engage all of the different facets of it.
	Not just Maha.
	Maha, of course, was a big part of it, but you've got to go to Second Amendment.
	You've got to go to veterans.
	You've got to go to unions.
	You've got to go to every single aspect of this to engage them and bring in the huge national stars to be able to get them to do that.
	Is that going to be enough to win?
	I'm not sure, but it does show that if you want that blueprint to win without Trump, you've got to find a way to engage on this.
	Cliff Maloney, are you picking up what I'm putting down?
	Yeah, look, let's sound the alarm here.
	We have a low propensity problem in the Republican Party that, you know, just a few cycles ago was flipped and it was a problem on the Democrat side.
	I'll give Tyler Boyer a lot of credit when he says that the only way to fix low propensities is to build relationships with them, right?
	To do what the Democrats do, to run these reminder campaigns.
	This isn't an excuse.
	I'm not here to tell you, you know, oh, because of X, Y, or Z, we lost.
	It wasn't candidate quality.
	It wasn't the consultants.
	It wasn't this or that.
	We need to knock more doors.
	We need to put more bodies on the ground in some of these states.
	I feel like in 2024, a lot of us got lucky.
	I'll just say that because Trump was able to carry the mantle and he was able to push and motivate a lot of people that we just weren't able to get to at the door.
	We don't have Donald Trump on the ballot anymore.
	And so I think you're right when you say like this is going to be a numbers game.
	And I think we're going to analyze all the results.
	We're going to see what we need to do.
	And we need to keep building permanent infrastructure.
	I don't think that this proves that what we're doing is not working.
	I think if anything, it shows we've got to double down and really figure out how to beat the Democrats at their own game.
	These initial numbers that came in, they very much surprised me, right?
	I thought that a lot of these independents were going to break for Jack.
	I thought a lot of these people that were going to come in.
	I mean, we're seeing now that some Republicans did vote for Cheryl.
	I mean, based on some of these crossovers, you know, we're down about 197,000 votes the last time I checked.
	We've got about 31% in.
	They're obviously calling the race.
	It's a disappointment, but I think there's a lot of lessons for us to learn here.
	And, you know, I think Jersey was a nice wake-up call that we definitely have a low propensity voter problem on the Republican side, and we need to fix it.
	Yeah, so Holly wrote in and she says, hi, Andrew, it is a referendum on Trump.
	And we've been emailing Charlie for months.
	He needs to focus on American citizens for the love of God, not other countries.
	Thanks, Holly.
	What do you think about that, Jack?
	Do you think that this is sort of like a confluence of a couple bad things happening all at once where we've got a low prop situation that's going on?
	But we also, you know, Trump's dipping in some of the polls right now, right?
	There's headwinds.
	You've got the government shutdown.
	You know, you've got debates about National Guard and ICE and all this stuff.
	Is that what we're seeing?
	It's a confluence of a bit of a referendum on where the focus is.
	Well, I wouldn't necessarily say where the focus is.
	I mean, but I do agree with you that voter, look, voters vote more on pocketbook issues and kitchen table issues than they do on issues that have to do with things that are overseas, right?
	It's really as simple as that.
	And I kind of see where the administration is sitting there, you know, going, well, wait a minute, we've done all this work on these peace deals.
	We fought so hard to get this to end wars, which are obviously serious strategic problems and serious wins.
	But at the same time, it's what the voters are focused on.
	And cost of living in some of these areas is still a huge issue.
	That's something that they're obviously responding at the ballot box with.
	And there's a lot of people saying, look, I don't think the economy is working for me.
	That's still a huge issue.
	We do have a huge problem of mass migration in this country.
	You're going to see that, by the way, rear its head when the New York polls close here in just a couple of minutes, 12 minutes until they've closed.
	And we start getting those Mamdani numbers out.
	And so, yes, it really just does come down to it's the economy stupid.
	And when voters see more of that engagement on economic issues, when the Maha Coalition sees more engagement and more wins for Maha, that's something that's going to put that front and center.
	But if you're not focused on those issues every single day, and by the way, I don't mean like talking about it.
	I mean actually putting up the W's, putting points on the board, getting wins, getting prices down for people everywhere.
	That's going to be what people want and that's people want to be able to see.
	And yes, that then also includes like, you know, going, you know, go to the factories that are reopening and cutting the ribbon when the new factory reopens and seeing people flooding to, you know, flooding into those jobs.
	Like those are the type of optics that you want to start to be seeing that will directly translate to votes in the midterms.
	Yeah.
	I want to, Zuzu's Pedals donated $10.
	Jay Jones is a criminal.
	Don't use his pedals.
	Who didn't?
	We do.
	De Zuzu's Pedals supports us a lot.
	Jay Jones is a criminal who didn't actually do his community service correctly.
	It is only a matter of time before he has a huge scandal or breaks the law and has to be removed.
	Mikey, we need a shame bell.
	I have bad news is that he's going to commit crimes and he's still just not get removed from office.
	Like, who are we kidding?
	Shame.
	Wow.
	Like, being a criminal makes you a better Democrat, probably.
	He might go actually kill a baby and get elected president.
	Yeah, I just, we had a, we have a guy threatening to kill kids.
	We got a communist that eats food with his hands.
	This should be a warning sign going into the midterms that if we can't put up good numbers in races like these, or at least could have some good results.
	Again, Cuomo is not a great candidate.
	Okay.
	He was not Sli-Wa is splitting the vote.
	There's still hope.
	I mean, big picture, I want to flag this as an issue.
	Well, you can put some blame on Sli-Wa for not dropping out.
	But another thing is, I think Sli-Wa was basically the only one who ran in the Republican primary.
	So we're stuck in a case where we don't have a terribly serious candidate who could, you know, let's say a guy who could conceivably become mayor.
	You know, maybe if a really radical guy won the Democrat or if another guy had to drop out, you need a credible candidate.
	And if we had a credible candidate, we would have been able to pressure Cuomo to stay out.
	We would have been able to possibly get more momentum for a Republican alternative, whether it's just run a normal cop or run a normal businessman or run a guardian angel.
	Well, but that's the thing.
	It's like a guy who a guy who we shouldn't be running a guy for mayor of the biggest city in America who looks like he's a character in a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles episode.
	And I think that God bless.
	He's actually, I do think he's like a pretty great guy.
	He is a great guy.
	I'm sure.
	But your point's well made.
	He's had some crazy stuff.
	I love how every debate that would happen or a question they get, it would be like, you know, they would answer a very normie and then he gets Sleewa and he's like, I was shot 15 times by the Cavitis and Gamboni.
	You know, you can, I don't mind him, but there is this element of this is serious business.
	I know.
	And Tiffany says, none of you dumbasses look at suggestions.
	You need a MAGA rally in every state every month.
	It's not Trump's fault.
	It's you who won't organize a MAGA rally in every state every month.
	Well, okay, first of all.
	By the way, turning point does look like often, all the time.
	Yes.
	But I would also note, like, it is resource intensive to organize massive rallies.
	And also, as Charlie would point out, rallies don't win elections.
	Ballots win the elections.
	Pieces of paper in a box, not only do rallies not win elections, but that is our entire point.
	Donald Trump, as much as we love him, he is not going to be on the ballot again, right?
	If our crutch is to go back to say that Trump has to save us, obviously we'd love his time.
	We'd love his resources.
	We'd love his energy to come out and do any of these rallies or to try to help some of these candidates.
	But that can't be the easy excuse, right?
	We have to come up with other solutions the way the Democrats do.
	And by the way, and I would just say, you know, it's a night like this that, you know, and every night, but it's really a night like this when Charlie's voice is, you know, very palpably felt.
	You know, the absence of it is very palpably felt because, you know, it would be at a time like this where I know for a fact that Charlie would be calling up all of his contacts in the, you know, the sort of the political shop, calling up all of his contacts across the RNC, and he'd be saying, you know, hey, guys, this is what I'm getting.
	This is the message I'm getting.
	It's time to course correct.
	It's time to do it.
	We need more of this, less of this, and putting that into place.
	And now you just don't have Charlie doing that.
	And so those conversations, and I'm not going to say, look, we're going to have those conversations.
	I'm going to have as many of those conversations as I can.
	But, you know, not having Charlie around to be able to be that leader and that focal point for so much of where the base is at, you know, between the grassroots and the higher ups.
	I think it's, I think it's very rough.
	And I don't know.
	I'm just kind of thinking about that right now.
	It's, man, he'd be doing so much right now to, you know, to kind of figure out what the next plan is.
	And of course, that was taken from us.
	That was taken from us by a violent leftist.
	And we are, you know, we're forever going to have to continue on.
	But at the same time, you know, at the very same time, there's a lot of things we can point to in terms of how this has to work.
	And it's very clear to me that infrastructure going forward is absolutely going to be key.
	There is no replacement for Donald Trump the same way there's no replacement for Charlie Kirk.
	However, what Tyler's been saying here about the numbers, the math, the door knockers, guess what?
	You need more of that.
	Rallies don't win elections.
	They can gin up support, but they don't win elections.
	It is the process of putting pieces of paper into the boxes.
	And by the way, one thing that Charlie and Tyler, and oh, actually, Andrew, you talked about this a lot was, and we know this, that one of the big things that we didn't have in this election, and I certainly hope we get back for 2026, Elon Musk.
	And Charlie understood the importance of having Elon, the importance of having his impact on the political scene, and was something that he was working very hard to restore because Elon Musk was a huge, huge part of that win in 2024.
	So we got a couple, we got a lot of emails from people.
	Cheryl says, could the election results be an immigration backlash?
	If so, GOP needs to focus its messaging on 2026.
	I think she's probably getting to the fact that, you know, there's a lot of energy on the left about how we're overzealous and we're overreaching.
	And to that, I would say, yeah, we always need to make sure that we're messaging.
	I think this is why Trump kept saying the worst first, the worst first.
	He was trying to calm the temperature down.
	And maybe there is more backlash on that.
	As soon as you close the boat border, it's like people forget that there was an invasion like six months ago.
	And it bothers me, actually.
	It bothered me in Trump.1.0 of just how quickly the American voters forget.
	Because mark my words, if a Democrat ever gets to become president again, those borders are going to fly wide open.
	Wide open.
	Why are they so radical on this issue?
	It's genuinely terrifying to think about.
	Like, I mean, we can see how they do it in the UK if you want a good model.
	In the UK, their courts have ruled you cannot deport an Afghan migrant for any reason, including if they're a gang rapist, including if they are a murderer.
	No reason.
	They have to remain in the UK.
	And, you know, I kind of think the next step for Democrats is probably they will be like, let's find every rapist we can around the world and buy them a free plane ticket into America so that we can buy them a free home to live in.
	Yeah.
	That's basically what the left is.
	Well, by the way, let's just be really clear about things.
	I mean, the left wants open immigration, unfettered immigration, because they want to continually import voters.
	And they want to talk about capitalist, Western, Christian, European heritage of the United States.
	It's just very simple because they hate it.
	They hate it.
	This is the gimmicky grins model that we're going to see in New York play out very soon here.
	This is, by the way, and I'm going to throw this out as well.
	You want to course correct on this.
	You want to actually fight back on it.
	This is why ending the filibuster is so important.
	Okay.
	Daniel very dangerous.
	Sorry.
	Daniel says, well, tonight's fuel.
	Because they're going to do it if we don't.
	Will tonight fuel Trump's argument to nuke the filibuster?
	Will it apply more pressure?
	Nuke it and do what?
	Is what I would say.
	Seeing tonight's losses, thanks for what you guys do.
	Wait, what do you?
	I mean, I didn't even know that was the email, but that's exactly what I think.
	I think it's exactly one of the things that helps to make the president's argument for him.
	If people are upset about the economy, if people are upset about the lack of action, well, and guess what?
	The average person out there, the average voter, the average normie, they don't understand the filibuster, the inside baseball kind of stuff in D.C.
	They just know Republicans are in charge and they don't understand why things aren't happening.
	Look, the president led with this message today, knowing that we were heading into a bloodbath a little bit today.
	I mean, obviously, the president's team have eyeballs and they see polling and they know how things are looking and their sentiment on the ground and the inside scoop from for all the top campaigns.
	But he led with that message today for a reason, which was that you have people who are not motivated to get off their butts, off their couch to go out and vote.
	And that's the most basic form of civic engagement.
	And that's the most basic form of giving a pat on the back to the president and to Congress.
	And this is a really bad sign, as per what the president was saying today, that next year we are going to lose the House.
	And we know what that means.
	They're going to spend all of their time attacking Trump, that they're going to waste all their time trying to, you know, trying to invoke every possible throw everything that they can at President Trump to ruin the last two years of his tenure.
	And today is the big warning sign for all Republicans that we have to get our stuff together.
	Now, the benefit is this, is that there is a ton of money that is being raised by the Republican National Committee, by the Trump campaign, and that needs to be deployed pretty dramatically and pretty significantly in some of these places.
	I would venture to say that there hasn't been enough effort, and this is an RC.
	The question again is that there hasn't been enough effort in killing multiple birds with one stone, which is that you have key target states with key target races that have to be invested into for years in advance, like four years, six years in advance, not a year or just a few months or even a few weeks before the election.
	It's interesting, especially on this, on this filibuster question, Tyler, because you seem to come out in favor of it.
	I'm a little bit more hesitant on Blake's camp, but I will say that JD Vance came out at Ole Miss and he said, we need to stop being afraid to do things just because we think that then Democrats will do it too.
	He's like, they're already going to do it.
	Well, hold on.
	So that's, I'm saying that.
	That's one argument.
	That's one argument.
	And then, and I said this on the show, today the show, Blake, exactly what you're going to say.
	They just didn't do it, actually.
	Kirsten Cinema stopped.
	Joe Manchin.
	And so they may do it, but also it takes time to do it.
	And you actually really do think in terms of just time that it takes.
	And one of the reasons I'm so wary of us doing it now is we'll nuke it to end the shutdown, I guess.
	And that's it.
	Like, do we have a Republican Party that's ready to pass?
	Like, what you really need to pass if you're going to nuke the filibuster, you need to actually change American immigration laws for real.
	Change it so we're getting fewer legal immigrants.
	Remove all of that crap that they use to make it so easy to bring in these fake refugees.
	They wave in asylum seekers.
	You have to blow all of that up.
	You have to be ready to do that.
	You have to be ready to claw away that regulatory morass that the bureaucracy has been relying on to make America the way it is for these past few decades.
	If you are ready to do that, then by all means, kill the filibuster because you have something you're going to do.
	But I have this feeling that the only thing they're going to do with a nuked filibuster is reopen the government and refund SNAP.
	And then they'll futz around for a year, lose the midterms, and then go, oh, well, now there's no filibuster.
	Democrats very much have an agenda they would like to execute as soon as they're in power.
	This is the Charlie Kirk Show.
	We are all about saving babies with pre-born.
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	That's how many babies were saved that year because of gifts of ultrasounds from people just like you in this audience.
	When a woman considering abortion sees her baby on that ultrasound and hears that baby's heartbeat, it doubles.
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	Join me now, saving babies.
	Call 833-850-2229 or click on the pre-born banner at charliekirk.com today.
	First votes are in for New York City.
	So check in with our audience at home.
	So this is your first look at New York City.
	New York City, Mom Donnie winning 51% of the vote so far.
	Cuomo at 39.7% and Sliwa at 8%.
	So you have an early indicator for some of these early votes that you expect that were there to pre-tabulated going in.
	So this is like the polls just closed three minutes ago.
	So these are early tabulations that it does look like Republicans moved away from Sliwa towards Cuomo, which is a good indicator.
	With right now on the early vote, Cuomo only about 12 points behind.
	The question is, is that going to be enough with Election Day votes to make up with the tightness in the polls?
	So again, Staten Island went for Cuomo.
	So you have Staten Island, which is heavily the heaviest Republicans per capita within New York City.
	They were split on Sliwa and Cuomo, and Mom Donnie came in dead last with 30,000 votes for Andrew Cuomo, Sliwa, and that's about 40% of the votes are in Staten Island.
	So you've got a long way to go here tonight.
	Yeah, so if we look, Manhattan, 52-44, Mom Donnie.
	The Bronx, 52-38, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.
	Queens, 49-39, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.
	Brooklyn, 60-34, Mom Donnie over Cuomo.
	And then Staten Island, Cuomo, 51.
	This is over.
	They'll call it in a second.
	Because that's a third of the vote with a 12-point lead, and it's across all boroughs.
	Yeah.
	Yeah, you pretty much need to.
	Mom Donnie, you don't have any consequences.
	I think Looks like the estimation is that Mom Donnie is going to increase his lead, actually, not shrink his lead, because Republicans are going to vote in person insignificant.
	So it's going to split more of the vote from Cuomo.
	I don't think it'll shift too much from Commonwealth.
	And here's here's the truth, though.
	I mean, if you look at this sort of like margins hold, even if all of Curtis Sliwa's votes went for Cuomo, he'd be at basically it.
	Mom, Donnie was still going to win 51, 48 percent, 51, 47, something like that.
	Yeah.
	So.
	So Mamdani is their choice.
	And it looks like he's the first choice of about equal parts, male and female voters.
	Exit polls show that he's getting basically equal.
	He's going to get his shot.
	Just got the call.
	Yeah, he's going to get his chance to run this city.
	Welcome to Mayor Mamdani, the communist.
	No, let's just like, we don't need to oversell it.
	Democrat socialists, fine, whatever he is.
	I mean, he's quoted the Communist Manifesto.
	But look at CNN.
	They haven't recognized the call yet.
	Oh, it looks like they recognized it at MSNBC here.
	CBS.
	Is that CBS?
	That Mom Danny headquarters here.
	CBS says it's leaning, but they're not calling it yet.
	Honestly, the line I would like to use for that we should mainstream is like he's a fanonist, you know, that fanon guy.
	Like he's a third worldist.
	He's a guy who, he like, he sees it as a his political cause is sort of bringing down the West, humiliate, like to lay low and humiliate people that he thinks are the reason the places he came from weren't nice.
	So he wants to, that's why he's like, wants to tax white people.
	He wants to punish white people for the crime of ever being wealthier than the country he came from.
	And there are a lot of people who pointed out that this is not too dissimilar from some of Barack Obama's rhetoric in Dreams of My Father, that, you know, his father having been this anti-colonialist in Kenya, and so, you know, really came into this, like, this is why you saw Obama return the bust of Winston Churchill, right?
	You know, I think it was like his first week in the White House, and you saw a lot of these elements.
	And he kind of, you know, didn't embrace all of it publicly, but you saw it early on.
	And then what else did you see?
	You saw, especially in the second term of Obama, Tyler, you remember this, that that was when we saw the huge expansion of Black Lives Matter.
	That's when we saw wokeism really took off.
	And a lot of it goes to this third worldism that Blake is talking about where specifically, and by the way, at the same time, Mondani has a tweet up.
	It's right there on his account from 2020.
	I think it was the day the George Floyd video came out on May 29th, where he said, he said, the black and brown alliance will defeat white supremacy.
	And that's what he believes.
	That is just fundamentally what he believes.
	And he believes in taking things that were earned by his target groups and then distributing them to his political coalition.
	And those are predominantly the Gimme Grins.
	Yeah.
	We're going to get in Cliff here, but we have a lot of a big backlog of dono messages, so I want to get through those.
	Jenny LS says, missing Charlie like crazy.
	Thanks to all of you for carrying the torch.
	Dem areas are typically more costly to live in, so I don't understand the results we're seeing if the economy is the issue.
	H. Sagad says, I live in Stafford, Virginia.
	This is giving me anxiety thinking the majority of people here voted for someone who wants to kill our children.
	Also, he says he's still waiting for a hat from the previous election.
	Please email us about that, and we'll try to get on that.
	I'm sure.
	Email freedom at charliekirk.com.
	I know it's difficult.
	We have a big backlog, but especially if it's the last election, we need to get on.
	It should have been all sorted out.
	Swimmaroo says Trump and his focus on foreign policy was not on the ballot, but these state and local candidates needed to message why the foreign policy will lead to better times here.
	They ignored it.
	I don't think it's the wrong move.
	I think they should have ignored foreign policy a bit more, personally.
	Let's see, we've got several more here.
	It said, I think we got Jenny there.
	We've got Irop.
	There's tons of talk about healthcare affordability as a nurse.
	I'm curious if there's any talk about CMS reimbursement methods and the millions that hospitals are losing.
	I want to take on CMS reform.
	I don't know how big, like something that direct would be.
	Yeah, we had Dr. Oz on today talking about health care.
	And, you know, it's basically, you go back to the fact that we're dealing with the ramifications, the hangover of COVID subsidies in our healthcare system.
	And Republicans are like, hey, there was an expiration date on these for a reason.
	You can't do this forever.
	It's totally a trap.
	You just, you get people hooked on things and then you vilify people who ever cut off the dole.
	And the end result of this is just a bankrupted country.
	Yeah.
	And by the way, this is a lesson for any future subsidies that people want to put out there.
	Even if it's in an emergency situation, you will be politically vilified if you ever stop the money.
	Because the voters don't care.
	They don't feel in a personal way the deficit growing.
	They do feel it, but they don't connect it.
	They don't feel what happens at the end of it.
	Yeah, they do feel it, and they will feel it at the end, but they don't connect the dots.
	And so there's people that are thinking rationally about this that are trying to wave the alarm or ring the alarm bell and wave the flag.
	But voters in the short term just say, give me my benefits.
	Give me my money.
	And so if you give it to them, you can never get it back.
	Cliff Maloney, we'll get back to the business.
	Vicki gave $50.
	All right, Vicki deserves it.
	So we need to thank Vicki for that one.
	Thank you very much.
	Hallie gave 10 and says, Dems will be opening, I'm not sure.
	Slightly oddly worded, but he says they'll be happy.
	Oh, yeah, I think it's they'll be opening Congress tomorrow.
	He's saying they'll end the shutdown now that they've got their win.
	Of course.
	Yeah, I mean, that's just, in the end, you know, what I like to say is you can't be that mad at your opponent for just doing good political tactics.
	And the only counter is you have to do good political tactics yourself and try to win.
	If your opponent makes winning moves, they're just beating you.
	Politics in the end is just a harsh game.
	You play to win.
	Yeah.
	And Blake, let me jump in on that.
	Democrats have no leader.
	They have no plan.
	But to them, this is a business, right?
	And so they're able to win these elections because they treat it as a business.
	And I got to ask you guys this question.
	Are you guys ready?
	Are you ready for the spiritual and the messaging battle that we are going to have?
	Mamdani is going to be the mayor.
	He is going to be the figurehead for the Democrats.
	You can compare him to Obama.
	I think that's a great comparison.
	But this is a self-avowed socialist who's going to fill the void for a party that has no leader.
	And as much as I get excited about the fact that we're finally going to be able to have real, honest discussions about free market capitalism versus socialism, it should scare the heck out of us.
	Because what if they win, right?
	What if they galvanize people?
	And I think that's going to be the real test to all of us is to make sure that we can message correctly, that we can expose this type of role of government and thinking that that's what they're supposed to do in our lives.
	This to me is a direct threat to the idea of a constitutional republic.
	I mean that peacefully, of course.
	Peacefully, of course.
	But we're going to have to win this battle.
	And it's going to take everybody on our side to push back, but we've got to be ready for this.
	This is not a joke anymore.
	America's financial capital is going to be run by a socialist.
	Are we ready to combat that?
	That's the question I'd ask the entire audience out there because that's the challenge in front of us.
	Look, I'm just going to say it.
	I've said this again.
	This has been Mamdani's political strategy.
	It's been his political project from the start.
	You're going to see open season on white people in New York City.
	You are going, if you thought that there was a bad two-tiered system of justice before, you have no idea.
	You have no idea.
	You are going to see in New York City more arena Zarutkas.
	You are going to see more of these violent criminals let out of jail, the Lumpenprol, as Karl Marx would call them.
	They will be let out and they will be set upon the middle class in New York City.
	And it's just going to happen.
	It's going to happen over and over.
	This is a guy who said he wants to defund the police.
	He says he wants no cash bail.
	He says he wants no bail at all in many of these circumstances.
	It is going to be absolutely horrific.
	And he is going to demonize the affluent in New York City to the point where they will flee the city.
	The tax base will flee.
	And that, of course, will have structural problems for the rest of New York City because he always, the communists always do this and Marxists always do this.
	They claim that they claim that they're for the little guy, but it's always the middle class and the little guy who always ends up getting screwed by them.
	And you're going to see this horrific cycle play out again and again.
	But we have been warning of the rise of this insurgent left-wing populism.
	And Charlie Kirk himself warned about this so much, the rise of Mamdani Nomics, because he said, look, it's resentment.
	And so it's really simple.
	Either you get MAGA or you get Mamdani.
	And by the way, you can also throw New York City.
	You can also throw Mangioni in there as well, as we also saw, because if they can't win at the ballot box, they then turn to the bullet box.
	And they turn to murder.
	They turn to mayhem.
	And this is what they do.
	They do it every single time.
	And so we're going to see a lot of problems out of New York City coming forward.
	And I pray for the people of New York right now.
	I really do pray for the people of New York right now.
	Yeah, you could say, listen, you get the voters that you deserve or you get the leaders that you deserve, that voters deserve.
	And that doesn't change the sentiment that you just expressed that I feel bad for New York.
	They're choosing this, but I do feel bad because they obviously are doing it in ignorance.
	It's like, forgive them, father.
	They know not what they do.
	Yeah.
	Data Republican has a great tweet up that I wanted to throw to Tyler.
	Tyler, I want you to hear this, man.
	She goes, what does this mean for 2026?
	And Data Republican says, it's a structural problem.
	The machine which spends billions of dollars to employ tens of thousands of civic engagement coordinators can dominate low turnout elections.
	Nothing more, nothing less.
	The GOP has to accept this instead of taking away silly lessons like we lost because we didn't compromise enough.
	And then she keeps going and says, the problem with Republican donors playing catch up is that it's also structural.
	If you give, and she's just saying, if you gave me $100 million, I wouldn't know how to spend it, but open society knows how to do that.
	And then, so I just quote tweeted her and I said, this is why Charlie Kirk's turning point action is essential.
	He got it.
	He could see the problem in these low turnout elections.
	He could see the way forward.
	He'd already started doing this and putting it together after 2022.
	And this is going to be the way forward.
	And it's really just, and Cliff Maloney, you're there as well.
	We talked about it earlier.
	We are taking what works because we've seen the Democrats being able to do it.
	We're working now, but we're playing catch up, aren't we?
	Yeah, I think that's exactly right.
	I mean, listen, do I feel as if we're going to be in a good spot two cycles from now?
	Yeah, I think I said this on your show today, Jack, earlier, that I feel like 2024 was the first time that we really broke the bread and understood we had to fight fire with fire.
	I think this is a year of learning, right?
	A year of getting some experience to see, guess what?
	Democrats are just as serious in off years.
	I'm not saying that we're not serious, but the resources and where we're spending time and money, we have to understand this is a business for them.
	And until we take it seriously, look, I just want to make one comment about Jay Jones, okay?
	Because it really bothers me the more I look at this.
	Mike, you might have said it earlier.
	Somebody said, the fact that over a million people voted for this guy, more than a million people voted for someone who said he fantasizes about putting bullets in his political opponent's kids' heads.
	That is insanity.
	This is not something that we can take lightly.
	And it's not like they're getting people to be inspired by Jay Jones.
	They're just using the current set of rules to win.
	And it should prove to you even more that these are low-propensity, low-information Democrat voters, but they understand how to turn them out.
	And we have to understand how to do that on our side.
	Yeah.
	And that's the toughest part that exists.
	And we've been singing this same tune for the last four years, essentially, is until we get serious about this.
	I mean, look, I mean, this is the stark reality is that these elections, our elections are not fully staffed with the get out the vote bodies on the ground.
	And the way that we do this is we're talking not weeks in advance.
	We're talking months and months, if not years in advance, you have to put these bodies on the ground.
	That's not happening in presidential elections to the level it needs to happen.
	It's certainly not happening in midterm elections.
	And that's the fight that we're putting up right now because we're preparing for that here at Turning Point Action in key places across the country.
	But it's definitely not happening in these off-year election cycles and these special elections.
	And so, I mean, it's really simple.
	You have an equation that you have to put together.
	It exists.
	The left uses it.
	We share it with everyone.
	We've done it in all 50 states, is putting it together and sharing with everyone and saying, this is how many bodies you have to fund.
	And I can tell everybody here, the eyes, how big the eyes get on people who are running campaigns and donors and major stakeholders, when you tell them how many bodies you need and how much it's going to cost, their eyes get really wide.
	But the left doesn't even blink at that.
	They're spending dramatic amounts of money.
	I mean, we're talking tens of millions of dollars in every key target state, every election that they want to win in order to win.
	And it's not insurmountable.
	It really isn't.
	I mean, look, the reality is in an off-election cycle, you put enough bodies on the ground with the low turnout, and you're usually in the 40s, 30s, 40s, and most of these places.
	You have enough votes to actually upset the left.
	The problem is, is they know that we're not going to fund the bodies.
	And therefore, they don't have to fund as many bodies, even though they're doing way more than we are.
	And here's the net result.
	This is also part of the problem: it's a relational problem.
	Every person that we talk to, we have to build a relationship with.
	This has to be people that we look for an opportunity ahead of the election to become their friend, become their neighbor, not just have conversations with them about Trump or about anything election related.
	And don't get me wrong, there's plenty of Trump fans out there, but having conversations with people that are more neighborly, so then we lead into the election.
	And when you actually show up, they're like, oh, I know who you are.
	I expect you to be at my doorstep, and I'm not going to reject you straight up.
	That's what makes the difference.
	And I can't reiterate that enough.
	That's what we teach our people here: build some kind of societal social guilt with your neighbors so that when you show up on their doorstep, they feel like they're indebted to talk to you.
	They feel like they have to talk to you because they're your neighbor and they're going to see you again.
	You got to throw this up, guys.
	So, this is a David Hogg tweet with a proposed community note that actually exposes illegal campaigning.
	Because, I just talked to a volunteer for Zoron who told me that this morning two voters at the polling site were undecided.
	And she told them Cuomo had been endorsed by Donald Trump.
	And they said, Well, that decides that.
	I'm for Zoron.
	Thank you.
	The community note: campaigning at a polling station is illegal under New York state law.
	But it like it also is revealing of kind of what we're talking about with the machine that you're up against, you know, where you've got actual volunteers campaigning at polling locations against the rules.
	I will say there is one nice piece of information that's coming in.
	Texas Proposition 3, the denial of bail for certain violent or sexual offenses has passed.
	It looks like, look, we got it on the screen there.
	It's expected to pass handily.
	So, that's at least one decent win on the board.
	There is also another big one that I'll share in the chat, but there was a special election that was held in New Hampshire today that went the Republicans' way as well.
	So, there are some silver linings that exist here.
	I've got a silver lining.
	New York is voting down changing their elections to presidential election years, which means we'll get to have more exciting New York mayoral election streams separate from the others.
	A couple more donations that I want to flag.
	SoCal Girl gave $20 and says, You guys are doing awesome.
	I'm sure this is a difficult evening for you without Charlie.
	Continued prayers for you all.
	Charlie is still here.
	He's just not in that chair.
	Charlie's on assignment with God.
	He's on an assignment with God, watching over us.
	That we believe.
	Ethan Fleckenstein also gave 20 and says, God bless Charlie and his family.
	I find solace that they will all be reunited in the afterlife someday.
	And I wish these haters would stop with divisive rhetoric.
	We need to unite more than ever.
	Amen.
	We must all hang together or we will surely hang separately.
	I believe it was Franklin who said that.
	Amen.
	And I always like to remind people: you know, this is just to drive the numbers home.
	In last year, Donald Trump got 2 million votes about in the state of Virginia.
	And Jones and Spanberger, every single Democrat running this race is going to get fewer votes than that.
	Everything is a turnout race.
	Every single election is a turnout race.
	We could, you know, if we had, in theory, 100% turnout of every right-leaning person in California, we could win a lot of races there too.
	We have another big, big deal coming from New Hampshire.
	Manchester, the largest city area in New Hampshire, swing state, New Hampshire.
	Republican mayor was re-elected, which is a huge deal.
	It's the largest metropolitan area, which shows that New Hampshire is totally winnable in 2028, totally winnable in 2026 with the right Senate prowess here.
	And that's a good sign for Republicans.
	There was a winner of the Berlin special election.
	This is Mark Tremblay.
	I think that's the one you're referencing before in New Hampshire.
	So it's a state-level race, obviously, but another win there.
	And then the mayor of Manchester, which again is the biggest city.
	Yeah, no, this is so to your point, is you know, the strategy for 2026, working on building that red wall, right?
	So we're thinking down the line here.
	How do you, you know, we heard so much about the blue wall.
	Well, how do you build the red wall so that it basically becomes very, very difficult for Democrats to win a national election?
	Yeah, they could pull off North Carolina.
	They could pull off Georgia.
	You always got to think about this.
	But if you basically, if you win Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire, you mess up their lives.
	You totally mess up their lives.
	So this is a really important point.
	Again, an important point for everyone that's sitting at home because we're looking back and we're like, oh, man, this is so depressing.
	Guys, New York City is a depressing place.
	Not heading in the right direction, clearly.
	New Jersey is heading to the right direction, but not quite there yet.
	And do not forget, like New Jersey, by the way, we didn't even cover this.
	Mikey, who ran in this election as governor.
	Cheryl ran against a absolute lunatic of a mayor and Ross Baraka and from the prayer in the primary against and guys, well, there was a moment.
	There was a moment where the New Jersey Democrats really thought they could make Ross Baraka their candidate.
	This is the guy who got indicted over the ICE stuff.
	He was endorsed by CARE.
	He literally is endorsed by all the radicals.
	I think what's interesting, too, is that, so there's a question of what do the Democrats now do with the crazy?
	So do the Democrats double down on crazy because Jay Jones won, saying, I mean, I can't even really think of anything crazier you can say than that.
	And Mamdani wins in New York City.
	Mikey Sheryl is just going to add to what you said, by the way, Tyler.
	She played it very careful with Mamdani.
	She did not appear with him.
	She did not endorse him.
	Barack Obama also did not endorse him.
	Barack Obama did not appear with him.
	Schumer didn't endorse him.
	Schumer didn't endorse him.
	They avoided him like the play.
	They avoided him because they're really trying to avoid the crazy.
	So Mikey Sherrill, knowing that she's going to these suburban pockets of New Jersey, which so much of New Jersey is a commuter, commuter state for New York and Philadelphia and some of these areas, and saying, look, I know that if I embrace this, I'm never going to be elected.
	And so she eschewed that.
	But here's the thing now.
	Are Democrats going to double down on the crazy because crazy just won in Virginia and do New York?
	Well, and that's the point.
	The radicals within the Democrat Party view Democrats like Cheryl as light Republicans.
	Yes.
	And I mean, Cheryl was, she's not a light Republican.
	She's a Democrat, but she was endorsed by all the establishment Democrats against.
	She's a Navy veteran.
	She is someone who is a helicopter pilot, saved somebody's life, and she's pro-Israel.
	So, I mean, this is not in lockstep with like the Gen Z.
	No, the majority of the Democrat Party is anti-Israel at this point.
	I mean, every poll has shown that.
	And that's who endorsed the opponent who could have easily won with a little bit more resources in New Jersey.
	So New Jersey Democrats made the strategic right decision to throw all the resources they possibly could at Cheryl.
	But if you're today, if you're tonight, if you're Jack Chitterelli, this race probably would have been in a lot better of a position running against a Baraka.
	And again, we don't want to have a Mombani situation happen in New Jersey for sure.
	I'm not suggesting that.
	But what I'm saying is that the Democrat Party is far more radical looking than some of the candidates that they have stuck with.
	Especially in these midterm and special elections or these off-site.
	Yeah, I just pulled it up, by the way.
	She only got 34%.
	He got 20%.
	That's what I'm saying.
	She did not get a majority of the votes in the election.
	She won by about 100,000 votes.
	Yeah, I mean, very easily you could have a situation in New Jersey where you have an absolute lunatic of a radical Democrat running against Jack.
	That probably gives Jack a better chance.
	But that's the context of New Jersey right now.
	You have a pretty consolidated Republican Party right now that are, I mean, look, Jack has run now three times.
	So in his last big run, last election cycle was really close.
	And you have a really divided Democrat Party who will bite their, you know, what is it, bite their tongue and suck it up and go vote for the more moderate.
	But you feel something brewing with the Democrat Party.
	You feel it.
	It's there.
	And that's the problem that we're not capitalizing enough.
	Momo talked about it actually when he went on with Maria Barteroma that there's a civil war within the Democrat Party.
	We're going through it on candidly both parties, right?
	You've got factions on both parties.
	It's endless because America has a system where in Europe or Israel or Japan, you have lots of different parties that can run.
	And so in Britain, there's like five or six parties you could pick.
	In Canada, there's five major parties you could pick.
	In the U.S., we have two parties.
	And all the different ideologies you could adopt fight over within those two parties.
	And it's just, that's the dynamic.
	Yeah.
	But just to, I would add one layer to that.
	Even in the UK and Canada, they have to form a coalition government after the election.
	So you get the benefit of being able to vote for somebody that's ideologically pure before the election more suited to your specific beliefs.
	They still have to form a government.
	Yeah, but it depends.
	A lot of them are just first past the post.
	So no, I just, no, I'm talking about once they all get elected in parliament, you have to form a coalition government.
	But only if you have a minority, like UK, Labor won with 35% of the vote.
	It has a huge majority.
	That's fine.
	So let's get to the police.
	Well, look at New York real quick before you get into it.
	New York is actually the Sliwa has actually shrunk a little bit.
	And Cuomo has actually gained since votes have been counted.
	So you're now at the position, and Mom Donnie went back up to 50% just now.
	But, I mean, this thing is relatively close if this is a two-way race.
	Yeah, I mean, I think Mom Donnie still takes a lot of time.
	Could we just be honest, though, for a second?
	Like, Cuomo was not a good candidate.
	Yeah, but Sli-Wa's way under the polling, though.
	Yeah.
	But Sli-Waw is way under the polling.
	Well, Trump was able to probably that last, Elon and Trump both endorsed Cuomo, but like Cuomo was not a great candidate.
	Momdani, for all of his flaws, for a moment.
	Not a great candidate.
	Cuomo is awful.
	No, that's what I'm saying.
	Momdani, for all of his ideological flaws, was a way better candidate.
	Like a way better, like just from a just pure optics standpoint, how well-spoken he was, what he focused on, tactically, it was way better.
	And not only that, but here's what they're going to do.
	And this is what Blake, you know, you've been talking about as well, is that the Momdani model is going to be the new model going forward.
	And Elon Musk talked about this on Joe Rogan.
	He said they are going to continue importing voters from the, and Blake, you mentioned third worldism.
	So this is a key part of it.
	You're going to keep importing third worlders into these systems, whether it be city, whether it be a state like a city like New York, a city like Minneapolis, a state like Minnesota.
	We've seen the way they've been able to change the demographics there, Dearborn, Michigan.
	This is going to be the new model going forward.
	Just import your own voters, and then you can run a candidate like Mamdani, and you can win, and it doesn't matter.
	So, there's so much the New York race where it's old New York, and you see old New York kind of lining up on one side of the football.
	And by the way, Trump and Cuomo, right?
	Like, Trump knew Mario Cuomo.
	Like, this isn't some new thing.
	Everybody knows he was a Democrat in those years, and they lined up behind Cuomo.
	Whereas New New York, which is made up of the Gimme Grants, the Yuckies, the Young Urban Creatives, Great Spot Career Line, they all voted for Mamdaniel and look who won.
	Look at this: Upper East Side, Cuomo plus 28.
	Yeah, there you go.
	There you go.
	Upper West Side, Mom Danny plus five.
	But I mean, that's that's a wild then Midwood.
	Yeah, but the upper side is extremely well for the first vote right there.
	Midwood.
	Blake, let's go ahead and get to some of these.
	They're not Rumble Rants, actually.
	These are YouTube messages.
	AZ Bonesaw gave 20.
	Much love to Charlie, Erica, and Crew.
	Thank you, Arizona.
	And let's see, we've got a bunch of spammers.
	Ooh, Bearded Viking came here again.
	Bearded Viking.
	I remember that.
	Oh, that was great having him on before the race.
	Hey, fellas, just want to say thanks for carrying the torch and keeping the movement alive.
	Being on the Charlie Kirk show last year was the honor of a lifetime, and I will never forget it.
	Long live Charlie Kirk.
	Yeah, that's awesome.
	Good for him.
	He's a good dude.
	Yeah, thank you so much for that.
	Peter asks, Hello from Northern California.
	What's the likelihood that Prop 50 passes?
	Thank you for all you do.
	Very likely.
	It is extremely likely.
	99.99%.
	Given what we've seen tonight, it would be a huge shock if it doesn't pass.
	If you want some consolation, the nature of it is when you do a partisan gerrymander, it can win you more seats, but it does make you more vulnerable to a wave the other way, which maybe that won't be next year.
	But some year we could have that race where Republicans do well.
	And, you know, it makes it less likely that you'll lose five seats, but more likely that you'll lose 20 seats.
	Yeah, so that's a good point because you can overcook these maps.
	Yes, where you basically spread your margins across too many different district races.
	So there's two different strategies when it comes to maps where you consolidate all of the minority parties' votes into a limited share of districts where, yeah, everybody's kind of locked into their seats.
	Or you take your advantage and you spread it thinner and thinner and thinner so that you can, in theory, win all the races.
	But if you have a wave year, that really makes you vulnerable.
	So be careful what you wish for in California.
	I mean, Mamdani is not in the 15 to 20 point range that was once predicted.
	So yeah, so Kalshi had the race for Mondani, and they were going to see what are the odds on how big of a margin he's going to have.
	And I think it was 25, 25 points was the one that was winning.
	I know we were checking it earlier today, and I don't know.
	I'm going to see where Kalchi had it at the end, but yeah, you're right.
	It's tighter than it's tighter than people realize.
	I mean, some people say, I mean, this is closer to the most recent poll.
	Yeah, actually, there's been a ton of, since we mentioned it earlier, there's been a ton of shift on this question now.
	We checked it earlier today.
	Now it's at the 6 to 9% is in the lead.
	Yeah, I mean, that's small.
	I mean, a Momdani win by 6% with Curtis Liwa taking close to 6 to 8%.
	I mean, that's not a mandate by any means.
	You know, I feel bad for Curtis because Curtis has given his heart into the city.
	He's a good dude, and he's a good dude, and it's not his fault.
	I mean, he's the Republican candidate for crying out loud.
	Well, I mean, but that being said, you know, the narrative is going to come out now that Curtis was the spoiler that Cuomo.
	But it's not.
	I'm just telling you: when you look at numbers that are this close and you look at it, and if his margin is the margin of victory, then you're there might be there might be some truth to it here because okay, see, so right now, let's just be honest: so, Zoron minus Cuomo and Sliwa together still has a 1.6-point lead.
	Yeah, but it's tightly small.
	No, it's really small.
	But here's why I say that it might actually there, yeah, exactly.
	Here's why, here's here's why I would say that maybe there's some truth to it because guess what?
	Sliwa during the debates was taking shots, especially in that first debate, was taking more shots at Cuomo than he was at Mom Donnie.
	That's right.
	It was almost like he was more friendly with Mom Donnie.
	And the second thing I would say, the second thing I would say is that by splitting our attention across three candidates, it basically prevented the presentation of Cuomo as the anti-Mamdani.
	It was too split up.
	It didn't give the voters enough time to actually sort of, from a public perception standpoint, put their eggs in the Cuomo basket.
	I mean, again, Cuomo's a terrible candidate.
	If they would have fielded somebody halfway decent, then Mamdani doesn't get out of the primaries, first of all.
	Second of all, yeah, go ahead, Clip.
	Yeah, I would just say this.
	I mean, this is what I see.
	Listen, I spent a couple years banging my head against the wall helping libertarian candidates and Constitution Party candidates.
	And, you know, I get all the arguments, right?
	You know, oh, well, you know, do we really have to support somebody like Cuomo because they're the viable option?
	And a lot of the third-party candidates say this, but it is a zero-sum game, right?
	I mean, at the end of the day, it's a bad spot for all of us to be in when we're saying to ourselves, hey, the guy that locked us all down and was one of the worst governors in the history of America is now the alternative to socialism.
	Yeah, I mean, sure, it would have been a slower trip to the left, but at the end of the day, it's kind of a bad position to be in.
	And so, I'm not saying we shouldn't have spent any time there, but it kind of was like, you know, you get people frustrated that, like you said, spend all their time with Sliwa, and then you have other people that are frustrated who are trying to spend money and try to help Cuomo.
	It's like at the end of the day, we got to find better candidates.
	We got to be able to coalesce.
	And it's just frustrating.
	But once again, the mayor of America's financial capital is now a socialist.
	It's not a mandate.
	I agree with you, Jack, but he is the mayor.
	And this is going to be a problem that we're going to have to deal with.
	Well, and the bigger problem is, I mean, and I'll just say this.
	Nobody else is really saying this overtly, but I think he's a very Obama-esque figure because his voice, his style, the patterns, the type of candidate that he is.
	I mean, this is what happened with Obama, again, in my opinion, is that he got in and he surprised everyone with his coolness and ability to work together.
	And he came off really suave on TV and he won a lot of people over when he won because a lot of people said, remember, if we go, again, going back to that first Obama election, 2008, a lot of people said, oh, this is going to be the worst thing that ever happened to America.
	America has hired a Muslim.
	And then he played it super moderate.
	And we know on the front face he played it moderate.
	But behind the scenes, he was.
	You do see that here.
	And I'm afraid with Mom Donny, you're going to see the same thing.
	Where you're going to have A moderate seeming, a moderate seeming guy up front, but in the background, he's running a communist regime.
	Well, it's going to be his appointments, right?
	You're going to have to look at the people he appoints.
	He concerns himself with the people that he sends city money to, which he's going to be, which is what Obama did.
	He would send tax money to these crazy groups.
	Meanwhile, he sits up there and he tries to pretend he's this clean-cut, you know, as Joe Biden would say, articulate figure.
	And then in the background, he's empowering just complete and utter by the way, the Democrats did the same thing with Joe Biden, where they tried to present for as long as they could that Joe Biden was just sort of this normal run-of-the-mill Democrat.
	He's Uncle Joe, he's old Joe, he's a normal guy.
	Meanwhile, Mayorkas is invading the country, flooding the borders, running rampant.
	Chris Ray and Merrick Garland are destroying our legal process, and they're just running an entire patriot purge of the country, locking up thousands upon thousands of patriots, J Sixers and otherwise, and going after Trump like crazy.
	And then eventually, you know, and on the foreign policy front, I mean, it's just like starting wars all over the world with Blinken's absolute utter insanity and Jake Sullivan as well.
	So, I mean, that, but all the while, Joe Biden's like, oh no, things are great.
	Me and Jill are going to Roba.
	Like, you know, and one of our followers reminded us, like, Linda Sarsour is the one that was running his campaign.
	And he's probably right that this is a real Mamdani's campaign.
	That's what has been said: is that she was one of the senior people.
	A lot of people are saying she had chills.
	Many people are saying Muslim money, too.
	Care put a lot of money into this.
	That's what she was saying.
	Palestine is the new New York City.
	So that's.
	All right.
	Well, listen, guys, we got to wrap things up.
	The races did not go our way tonight.
	But we still have the Arizona.
	It's coming out in 15 minutes.
	Okay.
	Do you want to hang around for 15?
	Will they count them quickly?
	The first drop will be.
	It is Maricopa County.
	It is.
	Got to watch it.
	And 15.
	And I think Minnesota is supposed to be dropping at 15, too.
	Oh, Minnesota just dropped.
	Oh, what do we got?
	What do we got?
	Minnesota just dropped.
	And by the way, if you're going to be able to get away with Rumble Rants, throw it in.
	What do you got?
	Remember, that's an instant runoff election, too.
	This is a tight race already.
	And 5% of the vote.
	It's Jacob Frey by a hair.
	Omar.
	Fateh.
	Fate.
	Fateh.
	Just behind by a few hundred votes.
	So that just hit.
	So Minneapolis, the mayoral election just hit.
	So you have that is what's left.
	And New York City is wrapping up.
	You have Minneapolis.
	And then we mentioned we have Arizona and then California is coming here in just a few minutes.
	So what are your initial thoughts here?
	I actually have to make a quick phone call.
	If Omar, if Omar hits, are we off?
	No, no, we're still going.
	I just have to make it.
	But everyone's tired.
	They're all bailing.
	You want to wait?
	You're stuck with me.
	You're stuck in midterm nightmare Thunderdome.
	What if Omar wins?
	Blake.
	I don't know.
	Minneapolis will continue to produce content for our show.
	I mean, which is its main purpose, I feel.
	The main purpose is to produce content and for people to go, like, wow, what changed in Minneapolis, which used to be this incredible city?
	People just kind of like sit there with like a bovine look on their face.
	These initial results are, I think, a little bit surprising.
	Obviously, we don't know what part of the city they're coming from because I don't think we have that detail.
	On here.
	I don't think we have detailed results of where those are coming from.
	But again, just as a reminder, you have this Democratic party, state senator, Omar Fateh, who made news because of his really radical positions.
	What made the news is they rigged the endorsement of the city Democrats, and it seems to have just been straight up cheating.
	They were not public, like they had to revoke it.
	It was clear misconduct on the part of the party, but who knows how much attention that got.
	And the current, the current mayor received backlash.
	Remember, Jacob Fry was the guy who talked about defunding the police originally coming in, right?
	And then he got in and he went super reverse course on a lot of things, obviously, because the city was heading in a bad direction and then lost a lot of the support of the radical Democrats that run the city of Minneapolis.
	So that is coming up.
	So if you got that, I think we had the election results up right now.
	We are at 2,600 votes for Fry and 2,300 votes for Fatteh.
	We're waiting on, we're about 15 minutes away from Arizona results, where we have kind of a couple of important elections just setting the standards here that's coming up here.
	So Blake, tell me some of your thoughts on what the impact is going to look like with Mom Donnie.
	Oh, I mean, there's so many things that can happen.
	I feel like what I constantly hear is people predicting this huge explosion of crime.
	I will be blunt.
	New York, for whatever reason, crime doesn't go up that much in New York.
	They can have urban decay go up a lot, which is not the same as crime, but affects people in a similar way.
	So if Mamdani causes there to be a lot more bums on the subway, maybe more bums on the street, more visible signs of blight in the city, that will affect people, even if they're not really being stabbed or if there's not being more murders, it can still have a similar effect.
	I just say that to set people up because people predicted that de Blasio would see a huge explosion of crime.
	And bluntly, it didn't really happen, at least not in terms of the really bad, violent crimes.
	You just saw, again, that decay that happens that people see and they don't like it.
	And that's a lot like crime.
	But we can't necessarily just say, oh, tons of people will be stabbed.
	I do think he has a lot of other ways to cause real harm that could get attention and create, I guess I'll be honest, a political opportunity for us.
	As an example, I believe he's promised to basically blow up the specialized high schools they have in New York.
	That's always a recurring thing.
	The radical left wants to get rid of the merit-based admissions to Stuyvesant Bronx High School of Science.
	That's a big issue for Asian voters in New York.
	It's a big issue for Jewish families in New York who want their kids to be able to go to these public high schools and have them be merit-based.
	He wants to replace that.
	A lot of radicals want to replace that with race-based admissions.
	They want to replace it with non-merit-based admissions.
	And that could get a lot of attention if he does that.
	He can really mess with the housing market and either make it so they can't build anything anymore or so that investment flees the city.
	He can cause a lot of economic damage to New York City.
	And if he's able to do that really quickly, that will be something we can point towards as an example.
	The downside is a lot of really disastrous economic policies do take a little while to play out.
	So we might only really see the full damage he's able to wreak in 27, 28, and beyond, as opposed to getting it within a year.
	So interesting things as we wrap up here.
	Producer Andrew is saying, now, now, host Andrew is saying that we need, we got to get everybody, we got to get the team out of here.
	Thank you to everybody who spent the long hours today on, of course, a superb memorial of Charlie.
	Of course, we missed him here tonight.
	A couple of interesting points before we head out.
	It looks like that New Jersey is going to break, well, easily 3 million votes.
	So that we had talked about that.
	You know, that window between 3 and 3.5 million votes that Cliff had mentioned, it looks like it's going to be closer to 3 than 3.5.
	And that's part of the story of Jack not being able to overcome the difference.
	Right now, he's down.
	It looks like about 300,000 votes in New Jersey, which is where he started at the day today.
	The New York City mayoral election is closer than people thought, but it looks like Mamdani's got this pretty handily.
	The Minneapolis race has just hit.
	And so not very many votes have been cast or been tabulated, but we'll keep a close eye on that and cover some of that tomorrow.
	And then, of course, the next few minutes, we'll have Arizona results that come through.
	And we'll talk a lot about that tomorrow.
	Hopefully, we'll have some positive things to talk about with some silver linings as we go.
	So should we go around and just kind of give final thoughts here before we head out?
	Yeah, and I'll just kind of bring it back to this.
	You know, Charlie Kirk couldn't vote today, and Charlie Kirk will never vote again.
	And it is your job out there to not only carry on that legacy, but explain why.
	Explain why Charlie Kirk will no longer be voting and also explain why.
	And you've got another data point because 1.3 million people in Virginia just voted for a man who said that he would be willing to kill Republican children.
	So the violence, I don't want to hear any more of this.
	Oh, it's both sides nonsense because it's not.
	Like we now have verifiable quantitative data that can show us the truth.
	But I do also know that Charlie would not be down in the dumps.
	I know that Charlie would be looking at this and saying, what can we learn?
	What are the best lessons that we can take away from this?
	Building the infrastructure and expanding that obviously is the number one because only infrastructure can overcome the gap when you don't have Donald Trump on the ballot.
	Republicans don't win in these states when you don't have Trump.
	Trump has that magic X factor that can get those crossover voters in these Rust Belt states that your typical Republicans just don't have.
	So that's something that, of course, we know that Charlie would be getting into, that he'd be breaking down furiously if he were here right now.
	And I'm sure, by the way, in some place where he's at, that's exactly what he's doing right now tonight.
	But he would also encourage everyone to keep the faith and keep on running the race.
	And that's exactly what we're going to do.
	That's what I'm going to do.
	And that's why we did the live stream tonight because we know that's exactly what Charlie would want us to do.
	That's right.
	Yeah, my final thoughts are keep the faith.
	I think that's a good place to end this.
	Keep the faith.
	Listen, this is an off-year election.
	We've proven as a movement, as a political party, this happened.
	You know, listen, we were sitting here with Charlie when Wisconsin came back, and it was not positive, right?
	So keep the faith because off-year elections, we haven't cracked this code yet.
	By the way, these are blue states.
	Yeah, I know Pennsylvania.
	Pennsylvania looks terrible too, to be honest.
	It's worse than Pennsylvania.
	So we have not cracked the code in the Trump era of an off-year election.
	You got to hope that presidentials, midterms are going to be better.
	But listen, we've got a lot of work to do.
	There's no doubt about it, but we got to keep the faith.
	It's worth fighting for.
	It's for our kids.
	All the above.
	Blake, final thoughts?
	First thing I'm going to flag because they matter the most.
	JM Denton, I recognize that name.
	He's been a great supporter of ours.
	He gave $200 and says, Mamdani winning signals the hour being late.
	I hope that GOP closes ranks.
	Thank you for your work, TPUSA.
	And thank you for your support.
	We do all this with the help of all of you who enable it.
	And we do it for you because we care about this country.
	We care about all of you.
	And we know nights like this are tough because you do look ahead and you're like, oh, man, is this a sign for the future?
	Is it all downhill from here?
	And the truth is, just the fight always goes on.
	The fight always continues.
	It's never as good as it looks.
	It's never as bad as it looks.
	Donald Trump himself has a great line about that in The Art of the Deal, where he says, I try not to get caught up in any particular moment because everything can change very suddenly.
	Something like that.
	And that's how it is.
	Things are always changing.
	Things are always in turmoil.
	Things are always in tumult.
	And that's why it is our moral duty to keep fighting because you have to be ready for when the moment comes where there's the opportunity to turn things around or when you need to stand in the breach to stop something from getting really bad.
	Charlie said, and he was quoting Dennis Prager in this, where he said, I don't fight because I know I'm going to win.
	I fight because it's the right thing to do.
	Amen.
	So that's what we do.
	We fight because we know it's the right thing to do.
	Thank you guys for joining us on this election stream.
	Thank you to Cliff Maloney and Rich Bears who joined us tonight.
	We'll see you tomorrow on our daily shows right here.
	We'll make sense of the insane.
	See you next time.

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