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Nov. 8, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
01:20:16
The Trump Trifecta: Election Aftermath Stream
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Hey everybody, Dan the Charlie Kirk Show.
Trump won.
We continue to go through all the races, including Senate races and what is going around the horn.
Pretty amazing.
Praise God that we won.
Just remarkable.
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We are here and trying to wrap up two remaining Senate races.
Nevada, unfortunately, is basically over.
Oh, by the way, a lot of that drop was from CD1, Tyler, just so you know.
It was a lot because they just called David Schweiker.
So that's where we know that was some of our composition.
Everybody, it is victory week, but we're trying to run up the score in the U.S. Senate.
Let's begin with the Pennsylvania news.
Cliff Maloney, you are Mr.
Pennsylvania.
You are live to our audience right now.
What is going on in the great state of Pennsylvania?
Yeah, we just got great news.
Scott Perry in Pennsylvania 10 is officially being called, which is fantastic.
That means we defend him.
You pair that with 7 and 8 being pickups.
It's looking like a very, very good, let's say, year for Pennsylvania.
Obviously, Trump winning PA, and we're still watching this McCormick race.
There's a lot of drama.
Charlie, I want to break down the numbers for everybody.
Please do.
So, we're hearing now that there's apparently about 100,000 of these adjudicated or need to be adjudicated slash provisional ballots that are outstanding.
So, I want to talk to you.
Right now, McCormick, if we look at the majority of these as mail-ins, they might not be, but I'm going to give the worst-case scenario.
Right now, McCormick has been averaging 35% of all mail-in votes to KC65. If those were to all be mail-ins, or if it followed that trend, which is the worst he's doing, right?
That means 35,000 of those votes, if they all counted, would go to McCormick.
65,000 of those would go to Casey.
So that's a net 30,000 votes for Bob Casey.
Here's the problem.
Dave McCormick is up roughly 31,700 votes.
So you're talking about over 6 million votes cast.
And this could be a 1,700 vote.
If I could just jump in so people understand the context.
The AP has already called this.
However, he is refusing to concede.
Casey will not concede.
Josh Shapiro is not asking him to concede.
John Fetterman is telling him to not concede.
And Mark Elias is running around out there saying, oh, these 100,000 votes are going to be adjudicated and could help us.
Sorry, just wanted to make sure that the new audience gets all that context.
Yeah, and Bob Casey is even putting out a statement saying, you know, that he's not going to concede, right?
He's not just being silent.
He's saying, you know, I guess we got to call him an election denier now.
Exactly.
So guys, educate the audience.
What potentially, the same way we did on election night, what is Casey's path with these adjudicated ballots?
And what does history tell us about adjudication of ballots?
Yeah, so I'll dive in here.
We just did a primary election this past spring, and I think it's good for the audience to understand this.
You know, I'm not going to go through all the batches, but just to share with everybody, there's 67 counties, right?
So if you're looking at a statewide race, each of these sets of ballots will be adjudicated per county.
And there's different batches, right?
If you look at it, what is the problem with the vote that makes it a provisional or makes it one that has to be adjudicated?
For a lot of the mail-ins, right, in 2020, we had record mail-in numbers, so there were a lot more problems.
But for these mail-ins, it's pretty simple.
You have to sign it, you have to date it, you have to use the secrecy sleeve.
And so a lot of times what happens is there's going to be different batches where if Casey wants to challenge that they should count, even though they're provisional, he's going to have to try to challenge those case by case, batch by batch.
But once again, the courts are not stern about this.
They are not on our side because judges don't want to throw out votes.
They don't want to be called election deniers.
And so I always tell people, anytime this thing goes to the courts because the Democrat is pushing, expect a lot of those votes to count.
Now, the one outlier we haven't talked about is still Cambria County.
Jack, my sources on the ground are telling me that Cambria County is not fully in, but the numbers on some of these sites are jumping to 95%.
Based on my math, it's still about 50 to 60% in.
Is that what you're seeing?
Yeah, I saw about 63%.
I have to pull the tab up.
Yeah, it was like 60-some percent.
But yes, there is a bunch out.
And what I noticed, though, so what do we know about Cambria County?
Let's go back to fundamentals here.
Cambria County is a 70-30 district, 70-30 county.
So if you look at the split right now, I believe that what you're saying is true, that the areas that are yet to come in are the Republican rural areas outside of Johnstown.
Yeah.
And even right now, I mean, you still have Bradley doing twice as better.
You know, twice as better.
Than our opponent.
And so when I'm looking at the local races to kind of see where they're at, I mean, I just still think, based on my math, 37,000 voters have voted in Cambria County this cycle.
There were roughly 70,000.
I'm talking all voters in Cambria County in 2020.
So you figure based on that, there's still another There's 33,000 ballots that need to come in in Cambria County, and they're going to be, I would say, almost two to one.
They're good.
Yeah, come on.
This is crazy town, right?
Yeah, it's absolutely crazy.
This 100,000 is going to make people very spooked about the election.
Charlie, what do you got for us here?
I don't know.
Tyler's on some sort of...
I have to leave.
You want to go off the set for a little bit and compose yourself?
No, I have to leave.
This is...
Charlie.
Tyler's going to start crying now.
I am.
This is going to make me cry because this is like the biggest F you.
It's not happening.
Tyler, it's not there.
I'm going to bring you back.
We're dealing with a whole different group here.
I get it, but this is the start.
Tyler, I'm going to make you be disciplined because this is not the last fight we're going to have together.
I'm doing the math right now.
Educate the audience.
What's going on here?
Be as factual.
You've got to get back.
I'm doing the math.
I'm going to fact check our data team.
I'm fact checking the data team.
So this is what's going on.
So if someone's watching home, what the heck is going on with Carrie Lake?
Okay, we just walked through the entire order of operations of how they're counting ballots.
Yes.
We have approximately a million ballots left at the beginning of today, which ran into the afternoon because in Arizona, apparently, we can't release data until after 5 p.m.
So that's what's been all day long.
We've been waiting around forever.
Yeah.
What we have seen come through were small little petty drops that were happening all across the state.
And it was basically break even.
A little bit of negative ones, a little bit of positive ones.
And we've been waiting really for that Maricopa County drop today to happen.
We got word on the ground that they were going to drop Maricopa and Pima together.
And word on the ground as well is that this drop was going to be the last of the mail-ins.
And we are just waiting for what would be drop-offs at the polling places, which have been really favorable for Republicans.
So this drop, we've been waiting on pins and needles for.
They said it was going to come at 5.
It just barely came through just about 20 minutes ago, 7 o'clock.
Cary Lake won 70,429 votes, 57.39% to Ruben Gallegos, 40.88%.
And it looks like our good friend Jill Stein got 1.73%.
And so with that, that shrinks the margin by about 11,000 votes, about 11,000, I think it was 633 votes.
And so now the gap is 43,000 votes.
A couple more of those drops that are in favor of Carrie Lake really puts her over the top very quickly.
Now remember, we have, and we can throw up this map again, I think I dropped it, Andrew, if you're watching in the chat.
This is the estimated uncounted ballots this was before the beginning of the night that just happened just a few minutes ago I'll give this here to the thought crime jet here.
We have about a half million ballots left in Maricopa County, but they are trending every day better for Lick.
Redder?
Redder.
Tomorrow, though, they say there's a bunch of D's and I's in them.
I mean, they said that before they dropped this one, too, today.
So...
You know, and Maricopa County likes to play games.
They mix things up, and I think they just like toying.
I mean, obviously, Stephen Richer has an axe to grind with Cary Lake.
Yeah, they're in a lawsuit together.
Yeah, he's suing Cary Lake for defamation of his character, even though he got unelected here in August.
But the remainder of the state has approximately 350,000 votes, give or take.
And Maricopa County has about 500 left.
Pima County has about 150,000 ballots left, which are usually not great for us.
The last drop was like broke 30, 60 for Rubin or better for Rubin.
But that's probably going to get a little bit redder and break a little bit more.
You think so?
And then in addition to the rest of the state is going to be deep red, about 65 to 70 percent for Kerry.
So the big question mark still remains, does Ruben have enough gas in the tank left to maintain his lead in Maricopa County?
What it looks like is the answer to that question would be no.
Now, I'll say one more thing and Jack, you can jump in here.
We have been tracking the ballots that we've been chasing, and Charlie, I mean, I can tell you, we have approximately before this dropped today, and I'll know after I go back to headquarters and find out for Matthew.
We probably have another 70,000 votes that are in Maricopa County that have yet to be tabulated.
You think so?
Those are our votes that we chased.
Yeah, I know.
So out of the 500,000, we can confidently say...
But you don't think they're not even in the system yet?
15% of those...
So you don't think the Maricopa numbers are accurate yet?
They're just not...
They haven't reported them yet.
So we have another...
I'm sorry.
Okay, but these are the reddest of the red.
So what I'm saying is those are our ballots that we chased.
So that's going to offset anything.
So that's another 15% to the good guys.
I see what you're saying.
So there's a redder pool of votes that no one is expecting.
So even if she was doing very bad with independents, we're offsetting that with the votes that we know are in there.
Right.
Which is probably the reason why Stephen Richard deleted his Twitter today.
Which is that, and for those at home that are also following along in this onesie-twosie saga that we've been in now for many years, we can probably, this is like the greatest saga ever written, is that we're finally overcoming the onesie-twosies because we chase ballots.
Now, but some people, we chased ballots at different times, but we look at the back end and they haven't registered yet with the voters we know, right?
So we chased ballots consistently every day.
Right.
So we tracked every single day which ballots we chased.
So we know in the data, because we know when the data comes back, it's all getting the weeds here for everybody.
We know, because Maricopa County reports who voted.
That's how you know if you voted when and what day.
So we know which day Charlie Kirk voted.
We know which day Blake voted.
We know which day I voted.
So we can tell if the people we chased, we know which day that was registered.
And I also know right now, based off of what they're reporting, which days they're counting.
Does that make sense?
I did the math.
It's going to be very close.
I'm not as bullish as you, but she could totally win.
If you get another couple drops like that, I don't think she will.
I think she'll get one.
This is the question.
I want to just reset the table.
So we're zoomed all the way in.
Let's zoom out a little bit just so we can get everyone to get a sense of this.
Maybe Charlie or Tyler, whoever wants to take it.
But just give us the broad strokes a bit.
How far is she down by?
How many are outstanding?
And where do we expect that to come from?
Let's get this map up on screen, please.
And it's not totally updated, but it's close, of ballots remaining.
No, I get what you're saying, Tyler.
I understand it.
No, I'm sorry, Andrew.
No, I understand.
One of our viewers did the math.
What did they say?
We have Y-Mode donated 10 Australian dollars.
Yep.
They're kind of like an American dollar, except you have to trade it in at a bank to get a real dollar.
There is 24% of the vote left to count in Arizona.
So with the current gap, she would have to win 53.41% to 48.1%.
That's about right.
To turn the tide.
But it's a little bit more complicated than that because I'm trying to break it by county.
Oh, for sure, for sure.
Right?
Because it's all going to come down to Maricopa.
What's going to happen is all the other counties are going to be silent and we're going to be like, what do we need in Maricopa?
The way to look at it, there's two worlds in Arizona.
You have, and you can argue three worlds, but you have rural Arizona and you have Maricopa.
And depending upon the election, sometimes rural Arizona is a little bit bigger than Maricopa's pool.
And sometimes Maricopa County is more like 60%.
The problem that happened in 2020 was Maricopa County was too big.
It had too much vote and it was too blue.
This election, it's a little bit smaller than it was in 2020.
And the rural showed up in bigger numbers for us and it was redder.
So I'm just, let's put the screen up.
I did the worst case math.
I gave Ruben all the votes from Apache.
Every vote.
Okay.
No, no, this is important.
And I said that Pima will go at its current clip.
But how has Pima been performing the last three drops?
It depends on the drop.
But on average, I think it's coming out, it's coming pretty close to 50-50.
So it's not 60-37?
Just one of the drops was that.
Okay, do you think that'll continue or not?
Because that's very instructive.
I think it's the best average that's going to come out of Pima for Ruben is a 55-45 for him.
55-45?
Yeah, I think that's the best what's remaining.
For him?
For him.
Okay.
Because we get it.
Because you have to remember, too, Pima has a ton of rural area.
And Pima, we have a ton of Election Day boost.
And we did get an Election Day boost.
And the numbers trended the same way as Maricopa.
So what's left...
It's basically a two-to-one margin of Republicans for those Election Day drop-offs as long as it jives with what actually showed up at the polling place in person.
And it usually does.
It usually does.
Yeah, okay.
So that's going to be a good final drop.
So let's just say this.
175,000 ballots left in Pima.
You are confident 55-45 would be the split.
It's a little less than that because I think that was before the drop tonight.
Okay, interesting.
There's 150,000.
Oh, is that right?
Okay.
You've got to get an updated map from them.
Matthew, can you get us an updated map?
Everyone in the office, you can hear my voice booming over the...
150,000 ballots remaining.
Let's be even more ambitious for Rubin and say he's going to get 56%.
Is that fair?
That's 84,000 votes, and that means that Kerry would get...
65,000 votes, right?
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Ish.
Yep.
Which would be a net 19 for Rubin, correct?
That's right.
Okay, I'm going to add all the votes from Apache.
Okay.
Just for argument's sake, because it's Apache County.
It's shady.
And they could find random votes in Apache County.
No, they wouldn't.
Oh, random votes.
They did that with the Attorney General's race.
All of a sudden, the attorney general's race was so handily found.
It was 280 votes that determined our attorney general's race, and there's 600 votes that just appeared.
It's not a joke.
I did 56-44 for the record.
That's 19,000 votes plus Apache.
So that's 29,000.
They get all of Apache.
I'm going to round up.
30,000.
By the way, Apache's paying attention right now, and they're doing stuff.
They've ungoverned elections because they're in the Native American Reservation.
You can't even send in anyone.
No observers.
No observers.
So we just take their numbers and we're like, oh, okay.
I guess whatever.
Sounds legit.
The only thing that we have is we know how many people live there.
That's it.
We literally are not allowed to observe, audit, canvas, nothing.
It's that bad, right, Tyler?
It's just they're their own nation.
It shouldn't be that way.
It's really bad.
So 30,000 votes on top of the current 44,000 vote lead.
Which would give Ruben a 74,000 pad.
Fair enough?
Mm-hmm.
Okay.
The rules.
How are the rules currently behaving?
I would say...
Because there's 142,000 votes left in the rules.
If you were to go, like, conservatively...
She's landing about 70% between everything.
Let's say 68%.
Okay.
No, because I want to...
I would even just go 65.
Wow, okay.
Just go 65.
65.
So that's 90...
She'll still make it.
92,300 votes, which means that...
It would be, jeez, 142 minus...
92.3.
49.7, right?
So that means she would net...
92...
0.3 minus...
Everyone matters at this point.
49.7.
She would net 42.6 votes, okay?
So 42.6.
And then Rubin's lead would be cut, 74,000 minus 42,600.
That would...
Wow, Tyler's not wrong, actually.
We've been living in these numbers.
I know, but I'm just...
31,000.
That would give Ruben a 31,400-vote lead going into Maricopa that has 513,000 votes remaining.
Therefore, if you want to then say 513...
By the way, this process that Charlie's taking is exactly the right process to look at this.
It's the exactly right process to look at this from worst to best.
513...
This is the way that we look at it.
As Charlie's doing that, Matt, they actually released these.
I just want to make sure I understand this.
They released them day by day in chronological order.
That's what's happening?
Allegedly.
Okay, got it.
She has to win Maricopa County 53 and a half to 46 and a half, and she becomes a senator.
Yeah, and really it's less than that.
Because I gave her all of Apache County.
Well, it's less than that, and I'll tell you the other reason why, because we're also not counting Jill Stein's involvement.
Oh, no, the Green Party.
So he's not going to get 46%.
He's going to get 44, 45.
No, I'm being saying, though, is it possible with what's remaining in Maricopa, she gets 53 and a half?
She doesn't even need 53 and a half.
Is it possible?
Yes.
Okay, because you've got to have some pad.
Okay.
Of course.
She just got 56% on the last day of drops, and now all that's left is the weekend drops and election day.
Guys, I'm telling you that I just fact-checked all of Tyler's work.
There's a path.
It's not just a path.
It's a likely path at this point.
I would rather be Carrie Lake than Ruben right now.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
It's a likely path at this point.
It's a 52% likely path.
I mean...
It's a more likely than unlikely path based off of what we know about elections and the order that you just gave.
Because she's not going to lose everything in Apache.
Do you guys know there's a thing called...
Hey, Cliff, ever heard of the Senate Leadership Fund?
Oh, yes.
They spent a lot of money on Kerry, right?
Zero dollars.
Zero dollars.
This would be, if we get this done, the biggest FU ever to the establishment.
Nobody spent any money here, right, Jack?
No money.
But, I mean, look at all the money they spent on the great Senator Larry Hogan on that massive victory that he had in Maryland.
They spent like $60 million on Rodgers.
Harry Logan got so much money.
I mean, I can understand.
I can understand bringing money into the Russell Belt.
I can understand that, but zero money for Terry is ridiculous.
The reason this gets me excited is because the donor class will have so much proof of concept after this cycle.
If Terry Lake wins this race, Charlie, and we can show them that the establishment spent zero dollars helping and the turning point had to single-handedly carry a U.S. Senate seat When they poured millions into Michigan, millions into Maryland, this is a masterclass on going to the donors and saying, listen, what are you doing?
Right?
Let the grassroots do what the grassroots does.
Stop pouring your money into these races where they refuse to back America first candidates.
Are you being serious with me?
Zero dollars?
They didn't even do like a nominal like $500,000 buy?
And they didn't do anything last time either, Cliff.
And so in Blake Master's race...
It was worse than that.
They sent out a memo.
I have to interrupt.
In Politico, they sent out a memo saying that their polling shows that it's out of reach.
Let me actually read the memo here.
Let me see, Kerry.
They sent a memo saying that Arizona was not worth an investment.
They've not invested, as Politico, invested in TV time at all, showing Gallego's lead at nine points.
Nine points saying that internal SLF tracking says that it's not a good investment.
So basically what's happening is Carrie Lake is outperforming.
She's outperforming, pulling by about three points.
And then we chased about five to six points of that.
Maybe seven, closer to seven.
It might end up being eight.
So she might be outperforming the poll by one or two.
The greatest thing the left ever did was think that we were just a bunch of kids that made memes.
Greatest thing that the left ever did.
Yes, sir!
Yes, sir!
If we win this.
Again, I'm not there yet, but Blake.
Chris Mays gave us a whole lot of motivation.
Yeah, Tyler's under indictment still.
We're going to get that cleaned up.
She's in cycle.
I don't know if this was worth it for her.
It's going to turn out being not worth it.
Do we have a good candidate next cycle?
One that can win?
We've got a perfect candidate.
And he's loved already.
He's working it.
Who is it?
Warren Peterson?
Can't talk about it.
Oh, no.
Don't break it.
I'm not breaking it.
I'm just...
I don't know.
Maybe.
I'm new to this.
I don't know.
Maybe.
Who knows?
He's great.
He's very good.
Very, very...
Let's just say I don't think it's going to be very difficult.
Okay.
With the model now.
Basically be improving.
Permanent infrastructure.
That's the model.
Permanent infrastructure.
The best case for Ruben at this point, based on the math, is he wins by like 6,000 votes.
If I was like the New York Times meter, it would be like, win for Rubin by 6,000, win for Kerry by 15,000.
So you know what's happening right now?
You want a real story?
Can I interrupt you?
I made a series of calls to establishment GOP donors the weekend before the election, saying, guys, Kerry Lake's going to come down to 10,000 votes.
Did I not tell you he was going to come down to 10,000 votes?
I called Kerry's team and I was like, you know, the modeling shows, our modeling shows is coming to 10,000 votes.
We had this down, because we know the state, like, I mean, people know their backyard.
And establishment donors were like, well, let me call my friends.
They're like, yeah, everyone says that putting money for Ted Cruz is a better investment.
I know donors that spent $5 million between Ted Cruz and Safe Races.
Meanwhile, Kerry got nothing.
Nothing.
And it's because these consultants lie.
And again, if Kerry wins, great.
If she doesn't, the point being is if we could have just rallied and said, okay, we're going to put another $5 million behind Kerry in the final two weeks of the election, we'd be celebrating right now.
We had $20 million that she deserved for this race and a key target.
It's even worse than that, Charlie.
And here's why it's even worse than what you just described.
If this was Carrie Lake, candidate that was an anti-establishment, off the map, off the grid, in a deep blue or a deep red state even, that would be one thing.
But this is Carrie Lake in a key targets that you must win in order to win the presidency.
It is political malpractice for the Senate Leadership Fund.
It is political malpractice for anyone that is what I call part of the national Republican apparatus to not give Carrie Lake money and support and fund Carrie Lake Senate run because the state is critical to you for three reasons.
The president, the senate, and the house.
And so we would be, our poor people here, we've been working our tails off, you know, all like bickering amongst ourselves trying to get like cure every freaking ballot today here in the state with basically effectively no resources that are provided to so many other states.
And we're still going to be able to prove that if you buckle down, you register voters, you chase those voters, you chase other voters, you win.
It might come down to just the voters I registered.
It might come down to your house, your street.
I literally worked my street.
I mean, I probably chased 2,100 ballots.
If you count the ripple effect.
Oh, way more than that.
I mean, with everything...
I mean, no, I'm talking about me personally, not just the...
Well, yeah, and you're like...
Just Freedom Night in America could elect a U.S. Senator.
Yeah, and if...
Think about it, we had a Dropbox there.
Yeah, next cycle.
But this is...
I mean, by the way, just so I'm clear, I did downgraded math.
If she does better in the rules...
She will.
And she does better in Pima...
She will.
Then all of a sudden, you're talking about...
30,000 votes, which is what we said to a point.
That's what I said.
This is crazy town.
Yeah, and Trump's going to be like 9, 10 points.
This is the number one current active political news story right now.
Tyler's more cocky than I am.
I'm not being cocky.
Blake, have you checked my math on this?
Are we on Hopiumville?
Blake will bring it back down to earth.
That's why he's around.
Blake sits in front of my board every single day.
He stares at it.
His head reflects off of the board, which reflects off of...
Blake's in here.
You've seen every day.
Here's the thing, and why, Charlie, this isn't Hopium, and I'll let, like, talk, and then I need to, like, pace a little bit.
This is Tyler's whole life.
No, hold on, Jack.
I've lived in this for eight years.
Yeah.
Okay, in four years for sure.
Is that we chase these ballots, Charlie.
So I'll re-describe this.
We have been tracking the bodies by name, by voter ID for...
For the days that we know who have not voted.
I know there's tens of thousands of votes.
I know the exact number.
I can go in there and tell them.
You know their names.
We know their names.
I agree there are tens of thousands of uncounted votes, but that's a given.
No, but let me finish.
It makes the universe redder.
It makes the universe tilt.
And so because of that...
Tyler's right about that.
You'd have to lose...
The usual comp wouldn't be enough.
40% of independence.
Now the comp might be 30,000 more votes in Kerry's direction.
That otherwise it would be like a 50 to 47...
And she would have definitely lost if we had not chased these.
We'd definitely be losing without us.
But what I would say is, I think we might be over-reading into it.
Some of those people we chased would have voted in the universe, even when we didn't chase them.
And also...
No, they wouldn't have voted, Blake.
No.
These people didn't vote in 2020.
Some of them would have.
Some of them.
And if we didn't chase them, they definitely would have voted for Carolina.
Let me defend Tyler.
There were at least, at least 30,000 first-time voters that weren't registered.
Meaning they had no voter history.
That were college kids, that were muscular class.
I said at least.
It's way more than that.
So that is like new and emerged voters.
That's true.
That's true.
But...
We've had many of our ballots.
We registered 20,000 on our own.
Many of our Chase ballots have already been counted, correct?
No.
That's what I'm saying, Blake.
No, but no.
I don't mean these.
Overall, many of our Chase ballots have been counted, correct?
It's probably less than 40%.
Less than 40% of our Chase ballots have been counted?
Oh, well, no, no, no.
After this drop today, it's more than that, for sure.
I'm just thinking that it's probably more like 60%, but like 70%.
70% have been counted?
Well, that's about what the count is in Maricopa.
That's what I'm saying.
So, overall.
Yeah, so we still have days worth it.
Our current tally in Maricopa is reflecting what we're getting with our chased ballots.
I can tell...
Currently, yeah.
And right now...
I don't want to...
I want Carrie Lake to win.
I am hopeful that it will happen.
But what I'm saying, what is left is we know out of what is left is at least...
So out of the $500,000 that are left, it's approximately...
And again, I'll take a look at the numbers.
It's at least 70,000 votes.
That's good.
But what...
Like, is the percentage of...
Those are low propensity voters.
Is the percentage of...
The percentage of what's left, is our chased ballot share of that larger than our chased ballot share in what's already been counted?
Let me describe it differently.
It's a way to think about it.
That's a good question.
The answer is yes.
At home, yes.
Okay.
If we're highly confident of that, that is good.
That is correct.
Think about, just remove those ballots that I just talked about and imagine a world in which it just lays it out, right?
Based off polling.
What does Carrie Lake poll at with Republicans, Democrats?
Here's the thing with Republicans.
We already knew we had more Republicans show up in Maricopa County.
What was it?
The end was 150,000 votes, 170,000 votes after Election Day.
It was a lot.
So there's the first boon, right?
The second is then what is her break with independents?
The reality is, I mean, we're going to know the number at the very end, but she was polling probably in the negative 10 range, 12 range with independents.
My point is that 10-15% makes up for that entire swath of independence that you're losing.
So what Tyler's saying is that as these drops continue, the universe, not all drops are the same.
These drops are typically 52-53% Republican-ish.
Our chasing is making them now 54, 55 Republican or 56, 56.
Does that make sense?
So it's changing the universe.
It's tilting it a point or two because also— Which is why Steve and Richard deleted his Twitter.
Hold on, hold on, hold on.
Because it's also because of the communication relationships we did with our—that there was not any Republican bleed.
It wasn't Republicans that were also going Trump-Gallego.
So our chased ballots are pure lake ballots.
Does that make sense?
So it looks even better.
And a lot of these people are registered independents, too.
Like some of these people we chased, registered Democrats, like a lot.
So again, I'm getting blown up by people right now.
They're like, wait, Kerry's not dead?
I'm like, well, yeah, you should have trusted our math.
We want to be optimistic.
I am more anchored than Tyler.
I'm more buoyed than Tyler.
No, you guys, I tell you, you should be excited, as excited as I am, because this was the pivotal drop.
This drop today was the pivotal drop because if this one would have been bad or bad enough, it would tell a story about what was left in Maricopa County.
Number one.
Number two, if it was bad, it could have put Kerry into a predicament that it would have been very hard to dig yourself out of because you've done the math now ten times, Charlie.
Well, because the math keeps changing.
Yeah, but if it would have been the other way, let's say the other way, 60-40, It would have put Carrie in a very bad spot.
She would have had to make up a lot more percentage points of the rurals.
Every drop that goes by that's good for her out of Pima, Maricopa County, means that she doesn't have to win the rurals by as much.
And we know the rurals are going to turn out the way that they're going to turn out.
We know we're going to get 70%.
And I'm just telling you right now, we're on a trajectory, like Charlie just said, I would much rather be Cary Lake than Ruben Gallego right now.
And I don't know why Stephen Richard deleted his Twitter today, but if I were...
I could tell you why.
Because a lot of people were sending him nasty stuff.
You got to stay buoyed, okay?
Charlie, Charlie, how many years have people been sending him nasty stuff?
He's been getting blown up since 2020.
It's because it's like he's hot right now.
And by the way, he's not running for free election.
He's done.
Why wouldn't you be done after tomorrow when all the ballots are counted?
Well, because he's just like...
I know...
I kind of sympathize with it.
Especially if Cary Lake...
I mean, he's kind of...
I wouldn't read too much into that.
If Cary Lake loses...
However, there is a place where Tyler might be right, where he's trying to get ahead of this, because Cary did...
There was a lawsuit where he thinks there's a shot.
I think we are perhaps reading too much into this astrology.
It destroys his lawsuit, Charlie, because...
I think this is great because you have two completely, right Cliff?
Two completely different views of, like, left-wing behavior on display.
And I think it's beautiful.
I know the left-wing is here, Blake.
I'm telling you right now, the way that they operate is that if Carrie Lake had a chance to lose, Stephen Richard would be in it till the last day so that he could zing her and then quit Twitter.
I mean, he could reactivate it and then sing her.
All right, Jack, read some of the Super Chats, please.
I'm not against that.
Yeah, so we've got some Super Chats that highly disagree with Charlie and Tyler.
And so this guy, I'm going to put them both together.
So there's two that came in in concurrence, a 110, one for 20.
This is from Ymode, who comes in and respectfully says, There is 24% of the vote left to count in Arizona.
Carrie Lake would have to turn her current percentage from her current 48.1 to 53.41 to win.
I am a data scientist.
And then, statistically, unless Lake can perform better than expected in counties like Maricopa and Pima, Gallego's chances of holding his lead are more likely.
I say this as a fan of Charlie and Donald Trump.
Sorry, I hope I'm wrong.
Yeah, I mean, look, you might be right.
I'm just saying that I've run the math now.
If Pima even holds in bad form, which I ran the math of, of bad Pima form.
Not to mention you going maximum vote rigging or not naming that like...
Yes, vote display, vote...
Maximum pessimism.
Yeah, most vote appropriation.
Yeah.
I literally gave Ruben all of Apache's votes.
Yes.
Just as a...
Charlie's on Team Ruben tonight.
No, but that's the way you have to do this, though.
He did it exactly right.
The worst-case scenario.
Charlie's scenario that he laid out for everybody at home, because I don't think we're totally comprehending what Charlie did.
Charlie did a worst-case scenario build-up to Maricopa.
That's not what's going to happen.
Yeah, I know.
He did it in Pennsylvania for Trump for two hours.
And that's why I always say, yeah, I mean, Charlie, after 20 in 2022, that's what we've got to do, right?
We've got to look at what is the worst-case scenario, and let's start our foundation there.
But the numbers do look good.
I mean, I'm looking at what you guys are saying, and if you're telling me it's pretty logical— Cliff, give us your analysis here.
I want Cliff because Cliff's an outsider here.
He knows what he's talking about.
He's been around a lot of these.
Cliff has been – by the way, Cliff has cut his teeth on more state rep races.
He's done more door knocking locally.
I mean he's seen vote drops.
He's done everything.
So Cliff, what do you see here?
Yeah, I mean look, if it's truthfully chronologically, you're telling me that they count them and they move to the next day, move to the next day.
I mean – Two nights ago, I was a little nervous, right?
And we saw, at least yesterday, we saw some of the drops.
It's like, all right, well, when are we going to start making up gains?
But as I look at the numbers today, you're right, Tyler.
It's like if this came in today and it was like, well, listen, it was kind of a whitewash.
It wasn't really there.
How many votes did she make up on this last drop?
A lot.
10,000 votes.
11,600.
And there's theoretically, based on that drop, how many was it votes?
70,000.
There could be as much as seven more drops like that.
And you're telling me there's 500,000 votes outstanding?
Yes.
However, the next drop is not going to be great based on voter registration profile.
I'm just going to be honest.
It's not.
And Maricopa County screws with us.
Okay, guys.
Maricopa County specifically batches stuff.
Tyler thinks they do all the counting just for him.
I think they watch this.
No, I think they have a combination.
It's the funniest thing.
Tyler thinks that Richard does the vote counting of one of the largest counties in America just to mess with him.
I think he's watching the program.
I'm less...
I'm making fun of him.
Yeah, I know.
I think it's hilarious.
It's not true.
So are we correct in our assumptions about the rules?
Because if you look at...
I do want to say, like, you know, looking at...
Cochise is a great county force, and it's only 42%.
Blake, I did 65-35.
65-35.
I did.
Right now, Cochise is 63-34, and that's one of our best ones.
Mojave's almost all in.
But...
Cochise.
Yuma is only 6038.
It gets redder.
I want to say this again, just for everybody that's here.
It's Cochise.
Not Cochise.
Okay, I'm going to say it Coach Ice just to mess with you.
So Coach Ice is 42%.
One of the girls in the office said it totally.
One of the girls in the office today said it totally weird.
Yavapai County is 64 in.
Cochise.
She said Cochise.
Yavapai is 63-35.
So they're great numbers.
But one of her drops recently today from Yavapai, she won 71% of that drop.
That...
Is great.
Wow.
I do like that.
And it was a big drop.
That's nice.
It wasn't like a thousand votes.
It was like 20,000 votes.
Is Chaconino getting better for us?
Or is it getting worse?
Coconino.
It's actually interesting.
I didn't calculate Coconino.
I did forget that.
Yeah, because they're 91% in, but that doesn't mean a few thousand.
Well, Coconino is probably net 3,000 votes.
And you know, overall, Apache County is not that bad.
What are you saying?
Page?
By the way, actually, I'm going to lose it on YouTube.
I'm going to be very sad if you keep saying it that way.
L.A. Spaz County?
So, by the way, thank you for Super Chat.
Matthew, 100 bucks, thank you so much, by the way.
We're going to read the Super Chats tonight.
Thank you so much.
You get more of them if you read them, Charlie.
I just did.
You can pronounce.
Thank you very much to the way that Barack Obama did on his feed.
Jack, how did, Jack, how did Charlie pronounce Schuylkill?
You got, you got to repeat this.
We got to play this clip.
We got to find it.
Charlie was like, yeah, so Schuylkill, which there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of those local names in Pennsylvania that when you grow up there, you just, you know, you're just used to saying them.
So we have this, we have Schuylkill County, we have the Schuylkill Expressway, Schuylkill River.
But if you see it for the first time, it's not spelled like you think.
And Charlie goes, what county is this Schuylkill?
There's like four L's in there.
That's a tough one.
Okay, that's a tough one.
We've said the county name multiple times tonight, and he's corrected me many times, but I actually can't remember if it's Maricopa or Maricopa.
Stop it.
I've forgotten already.
Stop it.
In one ear, out the other.
All kidding aside, Tyler, are we getting any other drops tonight?
Let me find out.
By the way, we were supposed to get a bigger one.
Just for the record, we were supposed to get the bigger...
That was only 70,000 in Maricopa.
I think we're done for the night.
Tyler, I need you to say that we're not going to get drops, because if your conspiracy theory is right, then we will.
Because whenever you're confident about it, we get nothing.
So just say it straight into the camera.
We will get no more drops, and then we'll get one here in about an hour.
Are you saying?
I'm never wrong.
I'm never wrong about this.
We're not going back.
We're not getting any more votes from Mohave County?
We're not getting anything else from Maricopa County tonight.
Which is terrible.
Alright, so that's...
Yeah, we'll go a little bit longer in all this.
But look, this...
When will the next Maricopa drop be?
Monday?
Probably tomorrow afternoon.
Are you serious?
Yeah.
Jeez.
Now, if that drop, though, that profile is very Dem Indy heavy, right?
Well, it's only Thursday, Charlie.
It feels like Friday.
Jeez.
So we got tomorrow...
I keep thinking it's Friday.
But Garrett Archer tweeted a ticker because he gets little tickers here, right?
He gets it from the Dems.
He follows the Dems.
How did they get these tickers?
I'll tell you.
I found out today.
I didn't know this.
Matthew found this out.
Matthew Martinez in our office found out there's a professor at ASU that built some kind of computing element for the county.
And so they've given him back-end access to the data.
What?
So the ASU professor is who gives...
Can we sue about that?
Oh, no, it's over with Justin Heap.
I'll tell you, I told everybody in the office today, I was like, I only have one thing that I'm going to make sure that Justin Heap does, and it's shut down access to every ASU professor.
So then Garrett Archer tweets out this ticker.
That's how Jamal gets this stuff.
Because everyone's like, how does Jamal...
It's from the ASU professor.
This random Jamal guy.
He's a Democrat.
Every two years I'm reading Jamal.
Yeah, and Jamal's not even smart.
Like, they've had a bunch of, like, he's had so many bad takes over the years.
Yeah, so Jamal, so that the next count will be...
He's a low IQ guy who just likes to tweet and he gets a lot of retweets.
Okay, but wait, there's 229,000.
Did we just see part of that or not?
Yeah, that was what we were supposed to get tonight.
And we ended up only getting 79,000.
But even the worst case scenario...
By the way, we're going to recommend Justin Heap does something.
We don't make people do something.
No, we're going to make Justin Heap not give open access to ASU professors.
I tried.
I like this donation from Facts Matter, $100.
Tyler is 1 trillion percent right.
Steven and 1Z2Z love to torture us.
They're sickos!
That guy in the chat, best guy I've ever seen.
He's the smartest guy in the chat.
Okay, so this ticker is how many of the votes, though?
Well, that's like half the votes, right?
That was before the 580,000.
That was at the beginning of the night.
That's been there all day.
Yes, I know.
But is that what just got dropped?
It's part of it, I think, yeah.
That's amazing for us.
It's amazing.
If we won 57% and it's a 37% independent, 33% Republican, 29% Democrat.
Yeah, but again, if you believe the conspiracies in your head, my head, meaning my head, that Maricopa County repositions votes to just mess with us, then they could have taken a better one.
So this is what Garrett Archer said.
It's actually not as bad as I thought.
He said Lake definitely hit her target here.
The next batch should be not as friendly as the party breakdown is a bit, not a lot, a bit more D and I.
But this was a shot in the arm.
However, I's near Election Day are redder.
Redder.
And D's near Election Day are redder.
Yes.
All voters near Election Day in Arizona get redder.
Yes.
Really?
It's just, oh, yeah.
I mean, just think about the behavior of an Election Day voter in Arizona.
There's a ton of registered Dems that were registered as Dems 10 years ago, and they don't vote in primaries.
A lot of muscular class, working class Hispanics, by the way.
Charlie's like a voter professor now.
He knows all this stuff inside and out.
I know pretty well.
Because we've done this so many times.
No, seriously.
He's like everything he does.
It's crazy.
We've got this guy.
We've got a donation.
Oliver Wood.
$20.
Hey, Charlie.
I can't wait to celebrate at AmFest.
I am part of the Arizona Recruitment Committee.
And if you could give a shout out to the code.
Yes, that's right.
Oliver would.
It would be huge.
Lauren paid this person.
Let's put up the AmFest promo.
Get your tickets right now to AmFest.
AmFest.com.
$47 tickets.
AmFest.com.
Everyone has to come, everybody.
It's going to be the biggest event ever at AmFest.com.
Do we have the trailer?
Yes?
No?
Can we play the trailer?
I think we have it somewhere.
Yes, we got it.
Let's play the trailer of AmFest.com.
Let's play that.
What a night. - Only in America is a story like Turning Point USA possible.
Only in America is it possible to say, you know what, I don't like the way the country is going and to do something about it.
American patriots, get ready for the biggest event of the year.
Join thousands in hearing the leading voices of the movement.
Featuring Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Dr.
Ben Carson.
Riley Gaines.
Senator Josh Hawley.
George Jenko.
Lee Allen Baker.
Congressman Matt Gates.
Brandon Taylor.
Alex Clark.
Allie Beth Stuckey.
Callie Meals and more.
December 19th through 22nd in Phoenix, Arizona.
Get inspired and make a difference.
I want to show you that in America, you can start small and dream big and make a difference.
At AmericaFest 2024.
We are going to have so much here at AmericaFest.
Register today at amfest.com.
That is Amfest.com.
A-M-F-E-S-T.com.
Check it out right now.
Amfest.com.
Okay.
By the way, just kind of a fun little note here.
You know that county, that Donald Trump one that everyone's talking about, Star County in Texas?
It's amazing.
It is one of the coolest thing.
It is the most Hispanic county in America.
Yes.
The most Hispanic county.
98%, I think.
It flips red for the first time in 100 years.
Guys, we were told the way you win Hispanics is the Jeb Bush way, which is amnesty, open borders, and it turns out it's the opposite.
It turns out Hispanics actually want mass deportations.
They want lower prices.
They want strong borders.
They want police.
So how did we get that so wrong?
It turns out the way you win over Hispanics is you say, welcome to America.
We're going to win you over it by putting America first.
Yes.
You want to put your country first, don't you?
Because they want the country that they're now in to be put first.
We're going to make it so every Hispanic in America says that.
We won the Alamo.
That's right.
That used to be a favorite question.
They were like, are you assimilated to America?
Do you think we won the Alamo?
Trump should go to the Alamo for the 250th anniversary.
Oh, he's going to do a lot of stuff.
Um...
Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
People are asking, Charlie, how do I get this hat?
It is a limited edition 47 hat.
I need one of those.
What do I have to do?
All right.
It is a limited edition, and we are selling signed right now.
They're not cheap because we only have so many.
It is at thecharliekirkstore.com.
I know it's a mouthful.
thecharliekirkstore.com.
The Charlie Kirk Show Store.
Guys, we gotta get up.
It's gotta be better than that.
I'll find you a new domain.
I'm not doing this anymore.
TheUltimateCharlieKirkShowStore.com Ignore everything I just said.
Go to CharlieKirk.com and there is a store breakdown.
So just do that.
TheCharlieKirkShowStore.com The ultimate Charlie Kirk show store that's the best store ever.
Experience.
Experienceplus.com.
No, it's the Charlie Kirk hyphen store.
Oh, I hate those.
The hyphenated.
It's even better.
It shouldn't be.com.
It should be like.wav or something.
Make it impossible to get a hat.
I just want a hat!
I just want a hat.
It's charlie-kirk.au.
Also, you need to open HTTPS at the start.
If it's only HTTP, it doesn't work.
Alright, it's charlie-kirk.com.
How do I even find the store here?
Where is the store?
Charlie doesn't have a store.
It's all Posada.
It's not even on the store.
I can't find it.
It's like you want a specific hat and you go to the Trump website and you're like, where do I go?
We're pinning it in the comments on YouTube, okay?
We're pinning it.
And you have to, yeah, the double hyphens.
Don't forget to triple hyphens if you come back.
I still have a guy who called Stephen Richer a sicko.
Can I read that one?
That was the one we read.
The onesie-twosie guy.
Oh, the onesie-twosie guy.
Here, let's play a couple of those onesie-joozies there.
They put those onesie-joozies down at the factory, you know.
So let's, and by the way, of course, you can always become a member for a red hat, but it's not this 47 hat.
It's just not the same.
I need to buy a 47 hat.
By the way, if you can find the website, the prize is, that's part of just getting the prize.
It's a labyrinth.
Let's go to cut 316.
Hey Charlie, I am a middle school student from Phoenix, Arizona.
And real quick, I would just love a hat, first of all.
And second of all, I will be in high school next year and I would love to join the Turning Point USA movement.
In high school next year.
So, let's go Trump and God bless you.
Thank you.
Give that guy a hat.
Give that guy a hat.
We gotta do that.
I love it.
Red hat.
Read Ryan Armstrong, one of our support.
I like Ryan Armstrong.
He sent us Canadian $100, which is like a US dollar again.
He says, drinks on me boys, which is great because I don't think you drink.
I doubt you drink.
He's a Mormon.
And I drink very rarely.
Jack doesn't drink.
I try to avoid it.
We love what you guys are doing to make change, keep grinding, sending love from soon-to-be very, very conservative Canada.
Godspeed.
And he's right, because Justin Trudeau is not very popular.
We're going to reclaim that country and make it great again.
We just got a super chat in my Instagram, and it says, Tell Blake to be quiet.
Carrie is winning.
My dad and I chase ballots.
I love that.
No one will be happier.
Okay, you'll probably be happier than me if we pull it off.
And Charlie, too.
I will be happy if we pull it off.
I don't think you'll be...
I get my video...
I get my version of the video crying at the desk, and Blake can run in and hug me.
Dude, no.
By the way, I'm traveling tomorrow, and Blake will, like, hug you.
I gotta go tomorrow.
Oh, yeah.
No, I gotta go.
There's too much stuff happening.
Oh, no.
Wait, Blake.
Jack, it's kind of like...
It's not there yet, but I feel Hunger Game vibes coming.
Don't you, Jack?
It's...
Yeah.
It's like Hunger Games meets King's Landing meets The Sopranos.
Yeah, just all of it.
Just all of it.
So I've got to go there to kind of referee.
Again, the neocon stuff I'm not touching, but there's other appointments that I care deeply about.
I will.
Yeah, Jack, you're going to be there too.
Charlie, we need you.
Charlie, we need you to referee the neocon appointment.
I know.
You're right.
Keep going, Cliff.
You're right.
Tyler, by the way, if you do your little moment of crying, let me do the voiceover.
They call me Al Michaels, and I give you a full viral clip.
I love that.
So Al Michaels is aging now.
By the way, I like more of a what's-his-face, the comedian.
I think I'll take that.
I'll take that version of Cliff.
The Shane Gillis?
The Shane Gillis.
I'll take the Shane Gillis voice over.
Yeah, but Cliff, the other thing is, though, is keep in mind that it's not just up to Charlie because we have JD Vance sitting right there the entire time.
Dude, I was texting with JD all day today.
It's going to be great.
I text with JD the way I text with Tyler.
I'm like, yo!
Fantastic.
I love that man.
I cannot say enough.
Glory be to the heavens.
I can retire and just be like, J.D. Vance is the future of all things.
I mean, he is just the best.
He's such a good guy.
He's just the best.
I can't say that.
Dude, I'm just saying this.
I just want to...
When this race is called...
If...
Okay.
I'm going to say when.
You say if.
If when.
When this race is called, the absolute amount of out-of-control, conservative boom energy that will come out of AmFest in December will be, like, insurmountably uncontainable.
Mm-hmm.
Again, the mandate we have here in this state, no matter how this goes, we're turning this into Florida.
Okay.
We're going to flip the governor's mansion.
We're going to flip the attorney general's race.
We're going to keep the state reps and the state senate the way it is.
I want a super majority in the legislature.
Great.
We're going to turn this place into Florida.
That's the mandate.
Win or lose with Kerry.
And just for the record, Kerry, worst case scenario, loses by like 6,000 to 10,000 votes.
Oh, by the way, a true story.
I won't say who, but a guy who's on TV all the time.
So I called somebody who knows him.
They're like, hey, Charlie, what's going to happen in Arizona?
Big donor.
We know him.
Great guy.
And the donor's like, hey, this guy on TV who I know says Carrie's going to lose by at least 50,000 votes.
I said, no, our modeling shows that she'll probably fall 10,000 short or win 10,000.
And the guy's like, Charlie, there's no idea what he's talking about.
And I was like, okay, let's see.
And then that donor typed to me who it was.
Yeah.
And then that donor called me.
That's why I stepped out and was like, oh.
You're smarter than that guy.
Well, yeah, because our modeling is the best modeling, right?
By the way, Cliff, the way that I know Arizona is why you were so confident in Pennsylvania, right?
People don't get this, Charlie.
It's like, listen.
There's all the pundits, there's all the polling, there's all the surrogates that have to say what they say, right?
And it's like, no, listen, forget all the noise.
We have hundreds of people on the ground.
We are tracking the data.
We're looking at it.
That's why it's so valuable.
We're chasing votes here.
The old adage is that in order to win a Senate seat, Blake, you've got to spend $100 or $200 million.
If Cary Lake wins, it'll be like, oh, you just need a grassroots army and a bunch of body ballot chases.
It would be a complete paradigm shift.
Do you know what the comparison is, though?
It's 2016.
You're right.
The comparison, the Cary Lake Senate shift is what Donald Trump did to the country in 2016.
If Cary Lake wins, it won't be quite the same, but it will be on par, same song, different verse of that same thing, and people will lose it.
They will lose their jobs in D.C. Let's play another.
By the way, if you want to be a member, it's members.charliekirk.com.
You guys can leave us.
By the way, people say, Charlie, I'm trying to find the gold hat.
Please help me.
Go to charliekirk.com.
One team member on our team cured 40 votes today.
Nice.
By the way, that could end up being a huge difference.
Did we finally get the data sorted out or no?
I will tell you all about that later.
I made a call, so I don't know if I got it.
If this comes down to 1,000 votes...
Not here.
If this comes down to 1,000 votes, 40 cured votes is 4% of it.
I'm going to tell you right now, we're piecemealing it together from all over the place, but I am not a happy camper.
All right, got it.
Okay, so...
Okay.
While he's checking that, Ben Thomas, $50.
I love what you guys did for the election.
I appreciate the current coverage and sincerely hope and pray for God's grace to be with you and your team as you fulfill your role in ensuring that Trump and his team deliver on their promises.
And that we will do.
This does not end with Election Day.
This ends with America being great again.
Amen.
Okay, let's play another.
There's another voicemail here.
Play cut 317 if you want to leave a voicemail.
Hi there, Charlie.
I'm actually from Starr County, which is the county you guys were talking about on the show.
I just wanted to jump on her and tell you that Trump is just such a big hit in the Hispanic community.
What you guys are doing at Turning Point, you and Tyler and Andrew Colvett, I'm just such a big fan of it and I'm so thankful for you guys.
Keep up the good work and know that we are supporting you through and through.
We're laughing because it's Mikey, okay?
It's a friend of ours.
Andrew thinks we're laughing at him.
This is Mikey.
It's one of our staff that did this, okay?
It's so obvious.
It's one of our staff.
I knew it the moment that it started.
It's Mikey McCoy.
Mike, if you want to be on the show, pull up a chair, okay?
It's like, I just wanted to get on the show.
That's why we're laughing.
That's why we're laughing.
Members.CharlieKirk.com.
That is Members.CharlieKirk.com.
Krista has, I think, tried to notify us a few times.
She donated five, and I think several times before.
Are you going to give updates on Sam Brown's race?
Unfortunately, the update is they have a giant mail bomb nuke that they dropped on...
The race from Clark County and Sam Brown is not going to make it, tragically.
It stinks because he very much could have done it.
We could have two Republican senators in Nevada right now.
You take five million out of that Maryland race and put two and a half in Arizona, two and a half in Nevada.
By the way, we're going to get Nevada sorted out.
Here's the deal, and here's the beautiful part about this new era with Donald Trump.
Let's rewind back to 2016, and let's just remind everybody.
You have Mitch McConnell.
You have a coronated Paul Ryan in a post-Baner world.
Okay?
Right?
That is an ugly way to enter into 2016 with Donald Trump.
He has no footing.
He has no staff.
No idea what DC's like.
No idea what draining the swap actually means.
We are now on track for Donald Trump knowing all that stuff.
Putting much better people in place in this White House.
Susie, as we mentioned, is the new chief of staff, is going to do a much more tremendous job than Reince Priebus did going into that role.
And I can say affirmatively, I'll tell you one of the reasons why, but keep going.
But we're not going to have to deal with Mitch McConnell.
We're going to have Rick Scott.
No, we won't.
Rick Scott will not become leader.
So let me just tell you right now.
Well, let's just be hopeful.
No, it's not going to happen.
Let's not blackpill us right now.
Guys, let me tell you the good news.
Can I tell you the good news?
Okay.
Because Senate leadership elections are tomorrow.
Yeah.
Okay?
And so we can lie to our audience.
Rick Scott will get 13 votes.
Okay?
I hope that's not the case.
I'm tracking.
John Thune will become majority leader.
People are going to be upset.
Well, South Dakota!
Is Thune better than Cornyn?
Do we prefer Thune?
Thune is up in 26.
And we're going to announce we're going to do a big event in South Dakota in February.
And maybe hire some staff in South Dakota.
Leverage.
I'm reading between the lines here, Charlie.
I'm just saying, I didn't say anything else more than that.
I just said, I think a couple ballot chasers, relationship builders in Rapid City.
Cliff, what are you doing?
Between now and February.
You can pronounce it wrong if you want.
By the way, I'm not saying anything more than, I think a great rally with your South Dakota friends.
Wait, wait, wait.
Cliff has a lot of Dakota hard feelings.
It'll be an open thing being like...
Leader Thune, let's lead, unlike the Pryor, and I just so happen to be here.
Oh, I find myself stumbling into the state of South Dakota.
Oh, I found 5,000 of my closest friends outside your office.
I hope Rick Scott wins.
I tweeted in his favor.
I think he's coming on the show.
He's amazing.
I'm just being honest.
I just talked to three senators tonight, and they're like, just so we're clear, J.D. landed tonight.
It's so funny.
J.D. started as the freshman two years ago that no one would talk to.
J.D. walked in like glory to the martyrs.
He walked in.
By the way, can we get through?
Are you not entertaining?
By the way, no, I got to get this.
I'm going to tell you exactly.
It's like the Aladdin.
Oh, yeah.
It's the Aladdin intro.
Like Prince of Boo-Boo.
Oh, that's right.
Prince Ali.
Prince Ali.
This is JD walking into the...
That's right.
It's JD walking into the Senate leadership meeting tonight.
And yes, there's no twisting ears with these senators.
They don't care about outside pressure.
No, they don't.
No, they don't.
I hope so.
I don't want to mislead the audience.
I hope Rick Scott wins tomorrow night.
I hope it happens.
I'm doing everything I can.
I called three senators tonight, and they're like, yeah, I mean, the old bulls are behind.
Because if you look at it, it's like, okay, Deb Fischer, Ricketts, the Alabama contingent, Cassidy, right?
But here's the difference.
Can I tell you the difference?
Cassidy, Kennedy.
I'm just going through the list, right?
The shift that exists is this one shift, which is that I think people are now understanding that there is pressure.
There is misery in these roles where they could basically just like pad themselves within the within the D.C. bubble and ignore everyone.
You can't do that anymore.
And and to your point of what you're saying of influence, outside influence and things like that.
He's in cycle in 26th to the point.
I know.
In a Trumpy administration.
And I think in a Trumpy state, I think we need to do a big rally in South Dakota.
Like Cheney learned this the hard way.
No, no, no.
There's no threats.
No, it's not a threat.
By the way, he's not Liz Cheney.
No, I know.
Liz Cheney was...
Remember, she was pretty pro-Trump for a good portion of her before she was running again.
It had nothing to do with Trump that got Liz Cheney kicked to the curb.
Yes and no.
The way she handled January 6th was also insane.
Well, I understand.
But what I'm saying is, is that people were fed up.
And when the people get fed up, it's way beyond.
Remember, she held office until 2022.
She lost in the summer of 2022.
Yeah.
But I wanted to say, what would you say?
Where should we do the rally?
Rapid City or Sioux Falls?
Sioux Falls is where the people are.
I think Sioux Falls, we get a big arena.
Sioux Falls.
And we do like a mini all day thing.
And we fly in a couple big names, right Tyler?
Yes.
And we just have a South Dakota Freedom Rally.
We should bring JD Vance in on an elephant.
Well, I know.
Come on, we gotta get this, Ryan.
No, this is a live shot.
We should use the animated version.
No, no, no, no.
The real version's way better.
No, no, it's funnier.
Have you seen the real version?
No, I don't watch these stupid live-action movies.
It's funnier.
Come on, Ryan, we gotta get this.
You don't have Disney Plus?
No.
Hey, Charlie, you like the live-action Disney movies?
No, I don't.
No, I'm saying that on this particular one, it's funnier than the cartoon.
Jack and I have had this argument about Disney.
Not with each other.
We actually agree with each other that you have to be in the world but not of the world.
Kids are getting to the age where I'm going to have to make the decision.
While we wait for it to download, Threat Alliance donated $100.
Either you keep your kids weird and you don't do anything, or you have to...
Manage it.
Threat Alliance.
Love your content.
Looking forward to helping the cause.
When will you have the conversation on what laws we need to change for the horrible timing on election results, and what can we do to help?
I could do a full eight-hour...
We could do a full eight-hour...
By the way, can I say one thing?
That they should suspend Senate leadership elections until Carrie Lake's race is called.
That's why...
Why do you think they're rushing?
Yes.
Of course they are.
That's why they're rushing.
That's why they're rushing.
And that's because SLF spent no money and it could have blocked a plurality.
Yes.
I mean, but I'm just, again, I want Rick Scott to win it.
Although I think you need a majority.
I hope everyone knows my heart.
I literally whipped votes.
So this guy, I called three senators today and they're like, Charlie, just, I mean, it's just.
Just quit.
No, not quit.
They just said, be careful, like, going too far into this thing because you're going to come out.
And then Charlie's like, we should do a rally at South Dakota.
Yeah.
No, but then someone reminded me who will remain nameless that a senator reminded me that he's in Cyclone 26 and therefore is a different dynamic.
A senator did.
This gets juicy.
Yeah, well, we're done with it.
This is the juiciest live stream you've ever heard.
Yeah, but I mean, look, we didn't go through all this work to have McConnell 2.0.
This is what the left figured out, right, with the grassroots.
Ryan, where's my Aladdin?
The grassroots does all this work.
It really ticks them off.
Here, this is important.
The more work that the grassroots does, the more ticked off they get when you disavow.
Okay, live shot of J.D. Vance walking into the Senate caucus this afternoon.
Turn it up.
This is funny.
Clear the way!
Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the
way! Clear the way! Clear the way!
For JD!
Oh, even worse!
Clear the way! For JD! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way! Clear the way!
You like the animated better?
How can you not?
This is so bad.
All right, get the anime.
You think Will Smith as genius better than Robin Williams?
That was horrible.
That was awful.
The anime is really funny.
Get that on the screen.
You mean the animated one is better?
I want to say something in Charlie's favor.
You're right.
If we do a meme of that, but actually make it JD Vance singing, that's going to be hilarious.
It's like that one of the Trump that they do.
The point being is that everyone, exactly.
Everyone, like, when J.D. walked in was like, yes, sir.
Or I like the big, I love the one that they do with Trump's face in the locker room.
But what I'm getting at is if Thune wins the leadership elections tomorrow.
If Thune wins the leadership elections tomorrow, it's not the worst thing.
Instead of Prince Ali, it's Veep J.D. That would line up with J.D. Let me ask you a question about J.D. Yes, Cliff, go.
Yeah.
So look, I'll tell you a quick story and then I'll ask a question about Thune.
So I was with a Senator and a Congressman.
I'm not going to mention which state, but I went for an event and the governor was giving a speech.
This is actually somebody who turned out to be a fantastic governor, but this was before he was elected.
And he gave this barn burner speech, super pro-liberty.
And I just, I turned to the Congressman and the Senator, both Republicans.
And I said, does he really believe what he's saying?
And they said, We don't care.
It's so good.
And this is my question about John Thune.
Is there a potential that he gets the role And he just realizes that, look, even if he's an establishment hack or even if he's, you know, a little bit better than McConnell, does he get in line for Trump?
Like, does he get in line for the America First movement?
Or are we going to be screwed?
No, that's why I think we should entertain hiring some staff in South Dakota.
We will.
And doing a big event.
I actually just posted two jobs while we were sitting here.
To announce that.
I'm not kidding.
Yeah.
And just, again, all I'm saying is that I think we should do a big event in South Dakota.
It's one of the reddest states in the country, and you have the Senate majority leader from that state.
And I think there just needs to kind of be an environmental awareness that you represent a very conservative state.
And there needs to kind of be an awakening.
And I want him to then be...
I want him...
Let me say it this way.
I want him to be as based as Schumer was to the Democrat Party.
I want him to represent Republican voters the way that Schumer represented Democrat voters.
Okay, this one might be better.
This is J.D. Vance, VP J.D. Play 320.
For Prince Ali...
Much better.
Okay, this is better, I agree.
And look at Abu.
You just have to replace VP JD every time they see him.
Exactly.
Abu as an elephant, too, is so fun.
Yeah, it's hilarious.
That could be you in this one, like, you know.
And Gilbert Godfrey.
That's even our animal.
That should be our logo for the next four years.
Um...
So anyway, that's kind of the plan for the Senate, because I just want to keep people living in reality.
And I hope Rick Scott pulls it off tomorrow.
I just don't think he's done.
But however, if Rick Scott performing really well tomorrow, like getting 15 or 16 votes, also keeps John Thune reminder that he does not have a stranglehold on the caucus, which is really important.
Did you say Rick?
I said Rick Scott.
Yeah.
Did I say Tim Scott accident?
No, I heard Rick Scott.
Does Cornyn have any shot or is everybody aligning behind Thune?
Does Cornyn have any shot?
The betting markets, if there were such betting markets.
I bet there are betting markets.
Thune is better than Cornyn, right?
Yes.
Well, here's also why, is that Thune is from a much easier state.
To apply pressure.
It's really cheap.
And really, it's like the second least densely populated state.
Also, is Corden retiring anyway?
No, but Texas is, by the way, Texas is unbelievably difficult to primary somebody.
Charlie, you put a hundred people on the ground in South Dakota, and you can move any needle you want.
Yes.
And you know that.
You've spent time there.
Yeah.
And so, not to mention, there's a couple really good potential people that could pop up.
Again, I'm cheering for John Thune to become the most conservative, to become the most effective Senate majority leader we've had because...
I don't think Thune's up in...
And we have a model.
J.D. Vance did it.
I don't think Thune's up in 26.
J.D. Vance used to be up in 26.
I'm told he's up in 26.
No, it's Mike Rounds.
Oh, is it Rounds in 26?
No.
I'm like, my intel's wrong.
Because I was like, I thought Finn was in 2022.
Yeah, yeah.
Because he was a 2014 win.
He's not until 2028.
I still think we should do that.
But it's still 2028.
Okay, we should still do that.
I kind of like Mike Rounds because he endorsed...
That's just spreading this a little thin.
I got a kick when Mike Rounds endorsed Mike Huckabee for president in 2016.
He's just like, he's my friend.
I'm just going to endorse him.
I was a little bit concerned because I thought...
I was like, I don't think he would be that stupid.
It's still a good idea, Tyler.
Yeah, I know, but I... I wouldn't think they would put him in there right during his re-election because they're very sensitive about those things.
I still think it's a good idea.
No, 2028 is like right around the corner.
Yeah.
It's like tomorrow.
The campaign's already started, didn't you hear?
J.D. Vance against, I think it was...
Didn't you hear?
Kamala Harris has a million people on the ground for a 2028 race.
Didn't you guys hear?
They knocked on 11 million doors today.
Today they knocked on 11 million doors for 2028.
Breaking, breaking.
Did you hear the news?
Kamala Harris is knocking doors.
Wild.
Okay, let's put a button on all this.
This was a great show, by the way.
This was fun.
We should do it again.
Yeah, we should.
This could be a show, as Jerry Sample would say.
This could be a show.
This could be a thing.
Just so you guys know at home, we talk like this in private, too.
There's no private public.
This is basically what it is.
Yeah.
The group chat.
Okay, so Carrie Lake is down 44,000 votes.
She's got a path, man.
I'm surprised Cornyn's not in the mix, though.
He is.
He's in the mix.
I also want to shout out our tech team.
Kylie, Michael, Dallin, Parker, Phillip, Mitchell, Rob, Dayton, Russ, Angelo, Frank, Greg, and our security team.
Let's give it up for them.
The entire chat should.
We've got so many super chats to read.
Cheaper, but it doesn't.
How many staff members you got?
Oh, I mean, this is a serious operation here, Cliff.
I mean, we're not messing around here.
We've got buildings on buildings.
I've been in a lot of libertarian events.
We're not used to serious operations.
Have you seen our offices, Cliff?
No, he's got to come down.
Oh, yeah.
By the way, we're just getting started here.
We've got a whole expansion plan.
We've got a Pennsylvania problem.
Hans Bricks.
Is that a reference to Hans Blicks, the old UN weapons inspector?
He donated $10.
Thank you.
No comment.
Milo.
Five dollars.
Are Republican House members libertarian enough to enable actual Doge government evisceration?
That's the Elon Musk thing.
I don't think we have a choice now.
I feel like we have to.
Yeah.
That's like we have to pay the piper.
We're backed into a corner here.
Yeah.
We painted ourselves right into a corner on this one.
Okay, everybody.
Thank you for becoming a member.
Members.CharlieKirk.com.
Go to CharlieKirk.com for this beautiful hat.
If you guys want a signed copy of that, CharlieKirk.com.
And I, tomorrow, if we are streaming tomorrow, it will only be if we have a path for Carrie, which Tyler would be.
I'll be remote from Palm Beach, actually, at the Real America's Voice Studios.
And you guys will be here, and we'll do this throughout the weekend if it continues, right?
We're going to carry this thing.
Carry for Carrie.
Carry for Carrie, right?
Carry on Carrie.
And let's close out with a voicemail.
Let's play cut 315.
Hey Charlie, we love you.
We all love you over here.
I know my uncle, he passed away right before the election and you were like his favorite celebrity at the moment.
My dad is like obsessed.
We watch you like every night.
We watched you all night throughout the election.
We stayed all night with you, man.
Just want to say we appreciate all you did for this election.
Send us a hat, man.
I don't know.
We will send you a hat.
God bless you.
Thank you.
That's really sweet.
Everybody, email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Also, in better news, Elizabeth Warren only won by 20 points in Massachusetts.
Only 20?
With a 38-point Democrat voter registration advantage.
That's pretty good.
That's remarkable, actually.
I'd like to thank Chris for 100.
He donated that a little while ago.
He said he loves our enthusiasm, but he does have PTSD from last time.
I think we all have PTSD from it.
By the way, Kansas, there was a poll that said Trump was only up five in Kansas, ended up being 16 points now that they're doing their final sweeps.
What do you guys think was the reddest state for Trump in the country?
Off the top of my head, I would...
Pennsylvania!
Pennsylvania!
I would guess it's probably either going to be West Virginia or maybe North Dakota.
Wyoming.
Wyoming came back.
72%.
This guy's donated five times, so I want to shout out 3,900 class.
He donated 10.
I live in South Dakota.
I'm a 29-year-old machinist interested in politics but have never gotten involved.
But if we can move South Dakota closer to America first, I'd love to.
Where do I sign up?
We will be back with South Dakota News if Mr.
Thune becomes Senate Majority Leader.
I just think it's important to pay attention to people's home states.
For nothing more, I think those plans need to be watered if you're going to run the U.S. Senate.
I think we can all agree.
Right, Cliff?
Right, Tyler?
Speaking on U.S. Senate, go support Carrie Lake.
CarrieLake.com.
She's going to probably need it in case she has to go to a recount.
By the way, there will be no simple win for Carrie.
This thing's a knife fight at this point.
It's going to be a knife fight?
Either way.
Every cured ballot.
And the Dems are super animated.
They're going to fly in tons of activists right now.
Like, the Dems are super animated because they do not want Cary Lake to be U.S. leader.
And the establishment in general doesn't want Cary Lake.
This is like a...
Charlie, I'm going to tell you this.
I'm going to put out a call to my team.
If you guys need us there to cure ballots, we are there.
Let's talk after this.
We've got a thousand people on the ground carrying ballots.
We're, like, running out of ballots to cure at this point.
So we're doing good.
But thank you, Cliff.
You can still come here.
Still come here, though.
Bring everyone down here right now.
Who cares?
Come here.
All right, guys.
God bless you.
Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
I will see you tomorrow and then flying out east.
Thank you guys for the wonderful support.
And charliekirk.com if you want this beautiful hat.
Cliff, great job.
Before I close, Cliff and Jack, plug whatever you'd like.
Yeah, I'll start.
So on X at Maloney, I don't have anything else for you guys to do in Pennsylvania.
We had a clean sweep.
It was a great race.
But Charlie, Tyler, the whole team here, appreciate you guys.
Let's keep telling the truth.
Thanks so much.
Jack.
Yeah, so Joe Rogan, go watch his show with Tim Dillon, and he's asking a lot of questions about Butler, Pennsylvania, J13, which is a story that is absolutely not going away.
President Trump is coming into office, so the book Bulletproof that you can get right now.
It's on shelves at all major bookstores, as well as orderbulletproof.com.
This is going to be the roadmap into the investigation into the first and second assassination attempts on Donald Trump.
Orderbulletproof.com.
Christmas is coming.
Charlie, we've got a huge strike force that's going up to Mojave County right now, driving up.
Our staff, our best staff, the best staff that ever was.
Eric Hayes, Jacob, and Garrett are up there, and they're heading up with a bunch of people to get us across the finish line in Mojave County to cure ballots for Cary Lake.
That is tough, thankless work.
All right, everybody, email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
God bless you guys, and see you soon.
Thank you.
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