Charlie continues his Friday tour of the most important swing states in the election. Georgia GOP Chairman Josh McKoon explains why collapsing early voting by Democrats in the Peach State mean it should be friendlier territory for Donald Trump than it was four years ago. Then, historian Larry Schweikart talks about both the trends in Arizona and nationwide, laying out why, if voter registration means anything at all, it should signal that a Trump win is imminent.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Georgia has some great trends and we talk about what's happening in Arizona and other states as well.
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In Duluth, Georgia, which is typically a bluer area, we have President Donald Trump, Bobby Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, and Jason Aldean coming at the Gas South Arena 6400 Sugarloaf Parkway.
To who we have joining now is Josh McCoon, chair of the Georgia Republican Party.
He does a great job there holding down the fort in the must-win state of Georgia.
Josh, welcome to the program.
Give us an update. How are things going in Georgia?
Well, thank you so much for having me.
You know, it's very interesting.
This time four years ago, we had had 1.3 million people apply to vote by mail in Georgia.
A lot of people don't know Joe Biden's entire margin in the 2020 election came from absentee by mail voters.
He won those votes by about 400,000.
So it's 1.3 million four years ago.
So far, we've had 250,000 total requests at the same time in this cycle.
So dramatically down.
Only about 5,000 votes returned so far.
This time four years ago, it was over 400,000.
So that critical block of votes that put Joe Biden over the top in the certified count has been dramatically reduced from four years ago.
Those votes that have been returned, about two-thirds are white, over half or over 65.
So a lot of the data we're looking at, we don't have partisan voter registration in Georgia, but very early returns look favorable for President Trump and the Republican ticket.
What part of the state is performing well, and do we see a similar early voting surge with the Stacey Abrams cartel in downtown Atlanta, in Gwinnett, in Cobb, in Fulton? Well, what we can say for certain is that the absentee operation from four years ago just isn't there, right?
I mean, it's 81% lower this time than it was four years ago.
Early voting here starts on Tuesday.
We'll have a very good sense, I think, by the end of the week, what's happening there.
We'll have a lot of day-by-day data.
I will say that the polling certainly indicates that self-identified conservatives Over 51% are planning to vote early.
We'd love to see that number go higher, but if that's what happens, it will be dramatically higher than four years ago.
And so we're very encouraged by the enthusiasm we're seeing around the state.
And again, just not seeing Kamala Harris close the deal with Black voters, which she has to do to get competitive.
She has to win over 90% of the Black vote here in Georgia to really put this thing in play.
Right now, even the AJC's own polling is showing her in the mid-70s with that group.
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
I mean, so let's just take a pause there, Josh.
So in order for her to be competitive, that's within 30,000 votes winning, 30,000 votes losing, right?
That's what we consider competitive, basically a 60,000 vote swing.
She has to go 90 plus percent with black voters in the state of Georgia.
She's in the mid 70s.
You're talking about a 15 point delta that she needs to close to just get close in Georgia.
I'm not saying we're going to win automatically because there's a ton of white liberals that have moved in to Buckhead that can screw all this up, as you well know.
But talk more about what's happening in the black community in Atlanta.
Yeah, so I can tell you, I mean, this is anecdotal, but obviously I speak to lots of voters.
I've been involved in Georgia politics for 20 years.
I've never had as many conversations with black voters saying they're voting for the Republican candidate for president as I've had this year with black voters saying they're voting for President Trump.
And that softness in the polling, the fact that she hasn't closed the deal, the fact they're sending Barack Obama to Georgia to try to rally Black voters, particularly Black male voters, shows that they know they have a very significant problem.
This is going to be competitive.
It's obviously going to be close.
But these data points give us a lot of encouragement that President Trump is really making even more inroads than he did in 2020 with that critical Black vote.
If we can get to 20% of the Black vote in the state, it will be an early night in Georgia.
Yeah, and so let's zero in on that.
What are we seeing as far as enthusiasm from our strongest counties?
Georgia, I believe, has the most counties of any battleground state total.
I think Wisconsin has the most per capita.
But you guys have so many counties.
I think it's like over 100 counties.
You could correct me. And a lot of them are underperforming Republican strongholds.
That could have got Herschel Walker elected, by the way, alone if they would have just had higher turnout.
What are we seeing on the ground as far as spirit, energy, enthusiasm?
And then also, you said you don't have party registration, or is that party returns or party registrations?
I thought you guys had registration by political parties.
So tell me how voter registration ended in Georgia.
Yeah, so we do not have voter registration by party.
What we generally do is look at primary voting preference to try to get an idea of where that is.
Republicans do have a significant edge.
If you factor in unaffiliated voters, obviously it's not an absolute majority,
but there are more registered voters that have voted in Republican primaries
going into this election than registered voters that have voted in Democratic primaries.
And you're right, we have a lot of counties, 159 to be exact.
About 20 of those counties are the really big counties, the really big urban centers around the state
and ex-urban, suburban counties we'll be watching very closely.
I see lots of enthusiasm at the turning point, chasing events we're participating in all over the state.
You have record crowds.
Every time we have a Trump Force 47 training, we're seeing tremendous enthusiasm.
You know, standing room only crowds.
This is not what we were seeing even four years ago.
So I feel like the enthusiasm is there.
I feel like people are going to be turning out early next week.
We're very excited to see when the gun goes off Tuesday morning and people start voting, we'll get a better picture of that.
But right now I'm very encouraged by what I'm seeing.
I know these are wonky questions, Josh, but how many people do you project to vote by mail and how many voted by mail in 2020?
So it was about 1.35 million that voted by mail in 2020.
And right now, as I'm talking to you today, there have only been 250,000 requests to vote by mail.
So we know it's going to be dramatically less.
It's been trending for the last two weeks between 80 and 85 percent of that number.
Excuse me, 20 to 25 percent of that number.
So I would expect, you know, between maybe three and 400,000 votes by mail, which will be I got it.
I got it. I got it. I got to interrupt. So if you were to model how did how did I mean, I think you know this by what margin did Biden win early votes in 2020?
So we vote three ways in Georgia.
Biden lost on Election Day voting.
Biden lost during the three weeks of in-person early voting.
The only category Biden won was votes by mail.
He won that by 395,000 votes.
And I don't think we'll have 395,000 absentee ballots in this entire election.
No, I mean, this is so important.
I just, I mean, sorry to keep interrupting you.
I know we have a delay because I'm traveling.
But again, I'm doing all the kind of back of paper math here in my notepad.
So you had 1.3 million people vote by mail, of which Joe Biden had a net, a net 395,000, which means if it was 1.3 million, that means he...
About 850,000 votes for Biden.
Yeah, I was just joking in my head.
Yeah, okay, exactly. 850,000 votes.
So even if Kamala Harris wins vote by mail by similar percentages, if you guys only have 300,000 people voting by mail, she could at best get a net 100,000?
Is my math correct here, Josh?
And she also has collapsing black support, so...
Yeah, I mean, the problem that the Harris campaign is going to have is they will have to try to convert over a lot of these people that the Biden campaign were able to get to fill out an absentee ballot and return it by mail.
They're going to have to physically get them to a precinct, either during early voting or election day voting.
And obviously that is a bigger lift than showing up at somebody's house and
getting them to fill out a ballot and sticking it in a drop box.
So I'm encouraged by the fact that we're not seeing the numbers of
absentee ballot requests that we saw at this time four years ago.
Look, for all of you guys election integrity experts and election integrity enthusiasts of which I am one, when you have a million less ballots in the system, You're going to have a cleaner election.
That's just a fact of life, okay?
And that's Jimmy Carter's own words, a Georgian himself, who said this vote-by-mail thing is totally flawed.
So you have a million less ballots in the system, which is what we're on pace for in Georgia.
You're going to have a crisper and cleaner election.
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I don't want to read too much into this in a sense where I think victory is, you know, 100%, or by any means, I think it's 50-50 everywhere.
But in Georgia, Josh McCoon continues with us.
So Biden got a net 395,000 votes of vote-by-mail in 2020.
They might get 300 to 400,000 total net vote-by-mail requests.
That means that Kamala Harris will be in a...
If she performs the same as Biden, which she probably won't because of the black support erosion, let's just say back of paper math, that's a 200,000 vote deficit.
Again, but turnout will be down, so you have to kind of understand that...
Generally, it will be harder to compare apples to apples.
But point being, Josh, the percentage margins that they were enjoying by vote by mail will not be there in the state of Georgia.
Therefore, this will be largely won or lost based on who will vote in person early and on Election Day.
Tell us about Georgia voting culture, about in person early, and is my analysis correct?
Yeah, so we have a good culture of turning out.
2020, in a lot of ways, was an anomaly for a whole host of reasons, but we have worked very hard for the last year talking to our voters about how critically important it is to vote in person early, to run up the score, to not let up, And people are responding well to that.
You know, when we started having those conversations, there was some pushback.
We've been able to answer those.
We've been able to explain the connection between getting our base voters out early to give us more resources to touch those low propensity voters that put us over the finish line.
And people are buying into that.
I think we're going to see next week really good, strong turnout from Republican strongholds during early voting.
And so let's just kind of make the final case here.
What issues are driving Georgia voters the most?
And to which candidate does that favor in the state of Georgia?
Well, that's another way we really have the wind at our back, because the issues that Georgians continually say they're most concerned about are the economy and immigration.
And in all of the polling, President Trump has commanding leads on both of those issues.
So the discussion in this campaign has largely been focused on What's your economic situation like now?
Was it better four years ago?
And then, of course, the crisis at the border.
And here in Georgia, we know we've heard these stories all over the country, but obviously it's incredibly powerful.
The tragedy of Lake and Riley and what that family has experienced has brought the issue of our broken southern border home in a way that is very, very strong with our Republican-based voters and with a lot of middle-of-the-road voters.
I was in a Ride share two weeks ago with a middle-aged black woman with two high school-aged children.
And that was the issue she was talking to me about, the broken border.
And, you know, Donald Trump can solve that problem.
I know he can. And that's why she was leaning towards Donald Trump.
So these are the issues that are driving the campaign here in Georgia.
Yeah, and just talk a little bit, Josh.
We have about two minutes remaining. It is becoming more of a battleground state because a lot of money is poured in, and also the Atlanta suburbs and exurbs are not as right as they used to be.
So you've got to run to the finish line.
Talk about that, Josh, the changing terrain of Georgia politics.
Sure. You know, we are a more competitive state than we were four years ago, eight years ago.
But what we do know is that in 2022, with the exception of the U.S. Senate election, we won every statewide race.
We have a General Assembly, our state legislature controlled by Republicans, our congressional delegation is majority Republican.
So this is a center-right state.
We do have a lot of people moving in.
Some of that has to do with the film and television tax credit that has brought a lot of Hollywood To Georgia, there's some other shifting around that.
But even with your middle-of-the-road persuadable voter, when you're talking about their pocketbook, when you're talking about fentanyl, which has touched almost every family you can talk to in this state in some way, those issues resonate, whether that person considers themselves to be a right-wing Republican or someone in the middle.
So we have continued to make this campaign and this conversation around Do you want the economy to get better for you and your family?
And do you want us to finally do something to stem the tide of migrant crime and illegal drugs flowing into our state?
And I believe we are winning that conversation.
I believe that the polling reflects that, public and private polling.
But we've got to run through the tape, not to the tape on November 5th.
That's right, Josh. Great work.
We'll be in Georgia the week after next to finish strong.
We have an event at Georgia State University, University of Georgia, and then, of course, our big one in Duluth.
Josh, thank you so much. Thank you for having me.
Joining us now is Larry Schweikert, author and historian of thewildworldofpolitics.com.
That's wildworldofpolitics.com.
Larry, welcome to the program.
Wanted to get you on a couple topics, but first, update our audience of what is going on in the great state of Arizona.
Well, somebody put the Republican Party on steroids here because as of yesterday when registration stopped, in Maricopa County, Republicans had a net lead of $175,900.
Over Democrats. And to put that in perspective, the entire state in 2020 was only net 130,000.
So right now, Arizona is about a Republican plus seven state, suggesting Trump will probably win Arizona somewhere in the neighborhood of four to five points.
And it'll be very, very close for Carrie Lake.
Well, I don't want to make any predictions like that, but we are working in Arizona very hard.
But walk our audience through that.
So the voter registration numbers are significant and profound versus 2020.
Walk our audience through some of the other counties and what will the statewide conclusion be when it comes to just voter registration data?
Sure. So Arizona is one giant county, Maricopa, of over 5 million people.
And the closest other county is Pinal with around 600,000, 700,000 people.
So it's one giant county.
Jupiter and one, you know, Venus.
And then the rest of the counties are very small.
Of the 14 of the counties in Arizona, all but four are Republican.
Most of those are heavy, heavy Republican.
We're talking 80% Republican for all except Pima and Santa Cruz and two others.
In the past two years, every single county in Arizona has moved to the right, to the Republican side.
Two of the counties have flipped entirely.
As I said, Maricopa is off the charts.
It's about...
Just under double what it was in 2020.
Overall in Arizona we're looking at a total of a Republican net advantage by Election Day of around 300,000 maybe 350,000.
Registrations are the single most important indicator of how people will vote, not polls.
A poll is a third party asking somebody what they intend to do at some point in the future.
A voter registration is what somebody actually did in the past.
It took action. To register as a Republican.
So the fact that the state is just swarming to the Republicans is very, very critical in terms of these registrations.
And we are not alone. Almost every state in the Union, including California and New York, are all moving to Republicans, some faster than others, but all of them are moving right.
Even New Jersey, they're all moving to the right.
So totally.
Thank you for that breakdown.
So we have in Arizona, every county is moving further to the right, but there is this question of non-party identified or independent voters.
What can you tell us about the behavioral and the voting habits of independence and how large of a composition do they represent electorally in Arizona?
They are about a third, and as always with Indies, you never know how they're going to vote, but almost every poll has Trump at worst losing them by five points, at best gaining them by ten.
I mean, it's kind of all over the map, but generally speaking, in Arizona, the independents are much more libertarian oriented, and so they're going to favor somebody who has much more libertarian So how much, let's just say on the lower end, how much can Trump lose independence by and still win the state based on the new voter registration numbers?
I'm guessing he could probably lose by 10% and still win the state, which isn't going to happen in any universe.
He'll probably win Indies in Arizona by four or five points.
Again, I think that the final is going to be someplace in the neighborhood of Trump plus four to Trump plus five.
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Click on the preborn banner. So talk about the direction of all these other states.
Arizona, you mentioned, the trend is our friend with voter registration.
What other states stand out to you in the battleground universe that show that Donald Trump and Republicans have serious momentum?
Well, I think one of the biggest is Pennsylvania, where at one point, I think it was in 2012, Democrats had a We have a lead of 600,000 over Republicans, and today that number is under 150,000, thanks largely to the efforts of Scott Pressler.
One analysis I've seen says that the Democrats would have to bank 600,000 early votes to offset the election day, the traditional election day Republican vote.
That's not happening.
Right now, Pennsylvania early ballot requests are trending now more toward Republicans.
But in almost every state, the early ballot requests have seen a fall-off by Democrats of anywhere from 5 to 11 points, whereas the early ballot requests by Republicans have seen a net gain of 6, 7 points.
So you've got a shift there of between 10 and 17 points in almost all these states.
And so we're looking, for example, at Virginia, where they're actually voting.
And typically what happens is you get a big burst of people voting.
The first day early voting is available in Virginia and then it begins to tail off for both parties.
Well, you got the big burst and it began to tail off for Democrats.
But in Virginia, Republicans have actually accelerated their voting after the first day of early voting.
So where Virginia right now is about 60, 40 early voting Democrats, which is people say,
well, they're winning.
They always win early votes by huge, huge margins.
The story this year is that they are way, way, way down in those margins where they
usually are.
Do you think Virginia is in play?
I think it's close enough that Trump could pull it out by a couple thousand votes.
Okay, so it's close.
So the Democrats seem to be panicking because they're collapsing with men.
Do you also see that in the data?
And why do you think they're doing so poorly with male voters?
Yes, and they're collapsing with men in every race.
I mean, black men now, Trump is up to around 20-something percent with black males.
The Democrat Party is simply a party of welfare and a party for the uber rich.
It's a you. You've got the uber rich on one side, and you've got the uber poor on the other, and in the middle is all the rest of America.
And this does not sit well with men who gain their identity, who gain their self-worth by providing for a family, by working.
And you're just not seeing that offered by the Democrat Party.
And don't take it from me.
Take it from guys like Rui Teixeira, who has been arguing this for years.
He's a Democrat consultant.
Take it from James Carville, who, when he comes down off his meds every once in a while, actually talks about this and admits it's a huge, huge problem.
The point is the Democrats don't want to hear it.
Yeah, and so they're bleeding in these demographics.
If Kamala Harris is able, though, to run up the score with women, can the math work for her in the sense that she wins 70% of all women voters?
Is there any indication that will be the case?
No, because no Democrat wins women like that.
In fact, Trump won suburban women in 2020 by a small amount.
He wins married women.
The only group he is not really popular with are the Karens, the single mothers, especially the welfare mothers who look at government as their source, their daddy.
And he's not going to win them.
But there's no universe in which...
Harris gets that kind of an advantage with women.
So what is your advice then for President Trump of where to emphasize and focus and where do you think, what state do you think needs the most attention from Trump at this point as we try to run to the finish line?
Well, the last polling I saw from all the states, especially the emphasis on the internal polling, is that he's up in every single swing state.
Now, Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute had a very interesting footnote that nobody paid attention to last week.
And he said that when you include the question, who would your neighbor vote for?
Which was the critical question in the Trafalgar polls in 2016 that allowed Trafalgar above everybody else except Barris to predict a Trump win.
When you include that question, Basham said, Trump is outside the margin of error in every state.
So I would say continue to regularly hit Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, but also hit the next tier of what I see are the next tier of swing states, which is Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, maybe Nevada, and who am I missing?
Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, because the last poll had Trump within four points in New Mexico.
What people need to understand is that every election, Trump under polls by 2.1 points.
Whatever the polls say, you can add 2.1 to Trump and subtract 2.1 from the other guy.
So if that's the case, that means he's within the margin of error in places like Maine and New Mexico.
Again, these are going to be tough because of that U-shaped demographic in New Mexico.
Where you have a great number of fairly wealthy people at Los Alamos and Sandia, Alamogordo, parts of Alamogordo, and then the rest of the state is very poor.
And you don't have a lot of people in the middle.
But nevertheless, Trump is close there.
And I just feel like, you know, as Led Zeppelin saying, the levee is about to break.
And that all of these third-tier swing states are starting to become genuine battlegrounds now.
Larry Schweiker, excellent work as always.
Thank you. We'll have you on again soon.
Thank you. Yesterday, I chased three ballots, and I'm happy to report Blake, Ryan, and Angelo have all voted.
So I got a whole list.
I got over 100 people just around, you know, I'm chasing those ballots.
Blake, Ryan, and Angelo, and they all voted for Trump.
It's great. You got to own your circle here.
Brian, have you voted yet?
See, Brian's right here. He's going to get nagged like you wouldn't believe.
That's what ballot chasing is.
You find the people that are a little shaky.
And you've got to get their ballot in.
Oh, and Riley voted. That's four, boom.
One, two, three, four votes for Trump.
Many of whom were not here in 2020, just so we're clear.
These are new votes since 2020.
Own your circle.
Get those votes into the system.
Kamala Harris is continuing on her...
Press tour. There's so much that we didn't even play from this last week.
She went on Stephen Colbert, and again, there's so much news this week, it's hard to even process all of it.
Let's play this tape here.
She was asked, Stephen Colbert asked Kamala Harris what she would do differently than Joe Biden.
The second time she's been asked this question on the same day.
Tell me if this makes any sense to you.
Playcut72. Polling shows that a lot of people, especially independent voters, really want this to be a change election and that they tend to break for you in terms of thinking about change.
You are a member of the president administration.
Under a Harris administration, what would the major changes be and what would stay the same?
Sure. Well, I mean, I'm obviously not Joe Biden.
I noticed. And so that would be one change in terms of...
But also, I think it's important to say with 28 days to go, I'm not Donald Trump.
And so when we think about the significance of what this next generation of leadership looks like, were I to be elected president, it is about, frankly, I love the American people and I believe in our country.
I love that it is our character and nature to be an ambitious people.
You know, we have aspirations.
We have dreams.
We have incredible work ethic.
And I just believe that we can create and build upon the success we've achieved in a way that we continue to grow opportunity and in that way grow the strength of our nation.
It's repulsive because she knows that you know that she's not answering it, and she's still talking about, like, oh, our people work so hard.
He asked you the most simple question possible.
And if Kamal was serious about winning, she could have answered it a lot differently.
And I mentioned this before, but she should have said, yes, I think we could have addressed inflation earlier.
I think that prices are too high.
But she is such a product of the party that she cannot diverge by even a single inch.
And you heard it. Nothing will be different.
Our borders will be open.
Another 10 million people will come in this country.
Crime will be up. Your kids might overdose on drugs.
Kamala Harris continues on Stephen Colbert's show, gleefully sipping her champagne of beer.
Now, mind you, she's used to white wine, and she loves white wine.
That's where all the joy comes from.
It's not joy. It's Chardonnay, Kamala.
Playcut 71. One of the old saws is, they just want somebody they can have a beer with.
So would you like to have a beer with me so I can tell people what that's like?
Okay. This was...
Now, we asked ahead of time, because I can't just be giving a drink to the Vice President of the United States.
You asked for Miller Highlight.
You asked Miller Highlight. I'm just curious.
Okay, the last time I had beer was at a baseball game with Doug.
Okay, so cheers. Okay, cheers.
There you go. Ooh.
That tastes like the beautiful city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
There's champagne and beers. There you go.
People of America, spare us from that laugh.
That's all I can say. Kamala Harris was caught using a teleprompter at a town hall event.
Of course, Telemundo is, or Univision or whatever, is covering for her.
Play cut 150.
Victim of crime. Are you a Republican?
Are you a Democrat? The only question I ever ask is, are you okay?
And sadly, we have seen over the last two weeks since Hurricane Helene.
For those of you on podcasting, she's reading a teleprompter.
And they panic, of course, and then they black out the teleprompter as soon as the cameras go behind her.
Everybody, now's the time to go vote.
Vote this weekend. Of course, it's journalists malpractice.
They did this with Univision.
They did this with 60 Minutes.
They heavily edited her. The whole media regime is behind her.
But you, you guys can make a difference.
Find one voter. Get them to vote.
Vote yourself. Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
