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Sept. 6, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
37:37
The Best Friday of the Campaign
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Hey everybody, thanks for tuning into the Charlie Kirk Show.
Mark Halperin, who has been the number one reporter and accurately predicting what's happening in this election more than anybody else, he has like five or six scoops.
He got Biden dropping out right, he got Kamala being the nominee right, he's gotten polling data right, he joins the program.
You're gonna love this conversation.
And then I recap my visit to UW-Madison and this huge breaking news hour.
Trump gets endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police, RFK off the ballot in Michigan and potentially North Carolina, then of course the big news, Trump's sentencing is kicked to November.
Huge news.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
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Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie.
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There is some breaking news regarding RFK in North Carolina and Michigan.
We're trying to get all the details here, but it appears at least in Michigan that RFK will be taken off the ballot.
We're going to confirm that.
In North Carolina, early ballots have been paused because of a pending lawsuit by RFK.
Now, what is the significance of this?
The significance of this Is a point here, 10,000 votes here, 30,000 votes here, can make or break the entire difference of this election.
And having RFK on the ballot, people don't follow the news as much, like, oh I recognize him, he's a Kennedy, sure.
We want to try and make sure that RFK's endorsement of Donald Trump ends up materializing in the best possible way on the ballot.
Here's some of the news coverage in North Carolina, play cut 126.
So I got my hands on a sample ballot here and you can see that RFK Jr.' 's name is the second in line and that is the issue in this state.
These were supposed to go out to the post office around midnight last night.
That did not happen.
They instead were moved into a vault for safe keeping and we actually have video of the rail ballots that we will show you there now.
This is here in Charlotte.
The State Board of Elections basically told all counties in this state To not mail these out after a judge ordered a 24-hour stay to allow RFK Jr.
to appeal her decision to have his name stay on the ballot.
So why is it staying on the ballot?
The argument here, Dana, is that reprinting thousands and thousands of ballots would eat into early voting time.
Let's continue 127 coverage of the North Carolina lawsuit RFK pausing ballots to go out to get his name off the ballot.
The problem is I can't just remove his name and then start printing.
I still have to look at ballot layout, make sure it's all lining up, and then I have to get it approved by the state, and then I have to start testing it.
That would be another two weeks?
Our hope would be we won't have to do two weeks, but again, it still takes time.
It will take five to six days to make all that happen.
Okay, that is one of the most pathetic pieces of tape I've ever seen on The Charlie Kirk Show.
Figure it out.
You're administering a presidential election of the wealthiest, strongest, greatest country in the history of the world.
I don't care if you might have to work a Saturday or work a Sunday.
Figure.
It.
Out.
Oh, well, we might have to work really hard and I have to get things approved.
That is a perfect example, an accurate depiction of how bureaucracy, red tape, stupid rules have just suffocated our ability To be able to do something very simple.
You notice she doesn't say that on the merits.
Oh, well, it's just very difficult because my staff might have to work somewhat hard.
So, in Michigan, the appeals court has ordered RFK is off the ballot in Michigan.
Now, it could be appealed to the state Supreme Court, but state officials were saying today was the deadline to finalize.
So, they have to flip-flop if they wanted to appeal it.
So, this is a live ball.
None of this has been decided.
Now, remember, Democrats, they worked so hard to keep RFK off the ballot, Democrats, the party democracy, they wanted RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, RFK off the ballot, because at the time, RFK was hurting Joe Biden.
Now, Democrats are working in overdrive to keep RFK on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot, on the ballot.
One of the reasons why RFK endorsed Donald Trump, of course they have similar world views, they have different politics but similar values and similar instincts and their why is the same, is one of the reasons why RFK got behind Donald Trump so enthusiastically is because it was not the Republican Party that was trying to keep him off the ballot.
It was not the Republican Party that was trying to sue him and send private investigators.
RFK experienced The wrath of the modern Democrat Party.
And that bothered him to his core.
And his endorsement of Trump is to send a message to the Democrat Party.
To send a message.
We as Republicans actually respect the rule of law.
All the Democrats care about is power, Constitution, who cares?
CNN is reporting about how close this election is.
So this ballot access is incredibly important.
The ballot access of, will RFK be on the ballot?
Will he be on the ballot in Michigan?
Will he be on the ballot in North Carolina?
These could end up being consequential Behind the scenes, not always covered details as to whether or not Donald Trump ends up winning the presidency.
Remember, in 2020, the election was decided by 42,000 ballots.
42,000 ballots.
We're talking about razor-thin margins.
We're talking about margins on the margins.
Play cut 128, please.
This race is close.
Yes.
Historically close.
Historically close.
You know, I just want to sort of...
Zone out a little bit.
Go to 35,000 feet and just point out how close this race has been.
Consistently, consistently close.
All right, campaigns where any candidate led by at least five points in the polls.
Look, most of the time there's at least some stretch where one of the candidates is ahead by at least five points.
At least three weeks in which one candidate led by at least five points.
That happened in every single campaign from 1964 to 2020.
How many days have we had this campaign where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally?
Look at this.
Zero.
Zero days!
Alright, so let's just say the polls match up perfectly to what the results end up being.
Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 246.
But let's just say we move the current polls and let's say the result differs by them by a single percentage point and Donald Trump is the beneficiary of it.
Look at this.
If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and look at this.
Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here and you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here.
And that, my friends, is what we're talking about.
We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world.
That's exactly what we've been saying at Turning Point Action for quite some time.
By the way, massive breaking news.
Major breaking news.
This week, the RFK News all this.
Listen carefully.
Drop what you're doing.
Judge Mershawn has officially delayed Donald Trump's criminal sentencing in New York until mid-November after the election.
The Democrat Party's plan to rig this race with lawfare just failed.
This is huge news, everybody.
I'm reading all these left-wing blogs, and they were counting on Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, Donald Trump is getting sentenced soon, and no, he's not.
Potentially, they could have sentenced Donald Trump to jail effective 2025.
They could have put him out to Rikers.
Next in a week and a half, Donald Trump will not have to face a sentencing verdict until after voters have selected.
Donald Trump won a delay to his sentencing decision in New York, hush money case, until after the November 5th election.
Trump will be sentenced on November 26th.
Who cares?
Instead of September 18th as originally planned.
Judge Juan Marchand ruled in Manhattan on Friday granting Trump's request of a delay.
Though, much shorter term, probation is possible.
This is huge.
Because potentially, by the way, every network is exploding right now.
I have all these networks up.
They're exploding with this.
This is the false surprise that the Democrats thought was going to come in their favor.
So let's just be clear.
This is a bad day to be a Democrat.
RFK is getting taken off the ballot.
Polly Market has... Polly Market slash Nate Silver says Donald Trump has a 60 plus percent chance of winning.
And now Donald Trump will not be sentenced to anything until after the election.
The law fair has officially imploded.
There's no more trials.
There are no more procedures.
No more sentencing.
It is now a clear shot to Election Day.
Everything that they have tried to throw at him has failed.
Indictments, impeachments, civil cases, fraud.
Our movement is growing.
It's ascendant.
That momentum, do you feel that?
And I'm going to tell you all about my visit at UW-Madison yesterday because it was remarkable what we saw in the media.
They refused to cover it.
They lied about it because they saw a huge turnout at UW-Madison.
The original Democrat White Board had Trump in prison by now.
Instead, Donald Trump is the favorite to win the presidency.
Donald Trump is the favorite to become president again.
That means we have to put our foot to the pedal.
Accelerate.
What we should do?
We should go wear our MAGA hats this weekend and go find new voters.
It's not too late to register new voters.
You can do that.
You should do that.
Do the work.
Go into restaurants.
Go into dry cleaners.
Find the new voters.
The Democrats just lost a big one today and sentencing kicked till after the election.
What a victory for the United States of America and our movement.
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It's been quite a breaking morning.
RFK ballot news and Donald Trump's trial kicked to after the election.
If you read the Democrat blogs like I do, many Democrat operatives were counting, counting, counting on Trump being sentenced, the polling will change, maybe he'll be hauled off to prison, maybe there's a future prison sentence.
None of that's happening.
None of that is happening.
I want to tell you about my visit yesterday.
I have visited the University of Wisconsin-Madison many times over the last 12 years.
In fact, one of my first visits ever to a college campus was at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Now, if you know anything about UW-Madison, you know that it is notoriously liberal.
Madison is, without a doubt, one of the most liberal cities in America and the most liberal major city in Wisconsin.
It is the state capitol.
It is the home of so many Democrat organizing groups.
It is the home, of course, of University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Donald Trump, in 2020, did not do well in Madison, Wisconsin, in 2020.
Did not do well.
It is Dane County, Wisconsin.
It is often forgotten by Republicans.
They just don't look very closely at it.
In Dane County in 2020, Joe Biden received 260,000 ballots and Donald Trump, 78,000.
Said differently, in Dane County, Democrats won 75% of the vote.
This is as blue as it gets.
In fact, Dane County voted more Democrat than Milwaukee Then Milwaukee, Dane County is more Democrat than downtown Milwaukee.
And despite all of that, Donald Trump still fell 21,000 votes short.
So I'm used to when I go to these college campuses from years ago, you know, setting up a card table, 10 people come by, 20 people come by.
We were flooded with people.
By the moment we showed up, look at this at University of Wisconsin-Madison.
In fact, we were giving out MAGA hats.
We ran out of 400 MAGA hats within minutes.
We registered over 150 new voters.
New voters!
150 new voters in just a couple of hours.
There was a rainstorm and no one moved.
Now, the media said, oh, there's only a couple dozen people.
Can you go back to that original picture?
Does that look like a couple dozen people for you?
And those right there, that is a, that is a Massive ocean of people.
Look at that.
All wanting to just hear and see at University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Now, I thought this was supposed to be the most liberal place in Wisconsin.
And the whole idea is, can we lose by less?
Can we lose by less in Dane County?
There's Brett Galashwoski.
Look at all those new voter registration forms.
Look at that.
Just pause on there.
Those are all new forms.
of new voters.
Who else is doing this work except Turning Point Action?
Scott Pressler's doing great work with Pennsylvania.
But going into left-wing campus territory and finding people that agree with us to lose by less is pioneer, courageous, brave work that Turning Point Action deserves such credit for.
You guys can keep going.
And we're now doing this at campuses all across the country.
In Arizona, in Georgia, in Pennsylvania.
I have 21 campus stops remaining.
And this is the type of clipboard and tennis shoes type of work.
Now, traditional Republican operatives say, oh, Charlie, you shouldn't go to campuses.
Waste of time.
We just lose there.
No!
There's thousands of voters there that otherwise would not be registered to vote.
We registered 150 new voters that were not being engaged by the Republican Party.
And I think the RNC is doing a great job, but they got their hands full.
These are 150 new voters.
This is the type of grassroots hustle that matters.
And I left that event in Madison and I turned to my team and I said, that was one of the best events we've ever done.
The warmth, the encouragement, the positivity, the resolute support of President Donald Trump on a college campus.
And now there are hundreds of kids wearing MAGA hats on the campus of University of Wisconsin-Madison.
And these are the low propensity Trump voters.
And we're going to chase every single one of those ballots.
And look at that sea of Madison Patriots in the belly of the beast.
Democrats are very nervous when they see these videos because they think they're, oh, well, we got to get 75% in Dane County.
You guys are not getting 75% in Dane County if we have anything to say about it.
These are Trump supporting people who are registering to vote.
These are people that share the worldview.
And they're registering right there.
This event is a magnet.
We bring them in.
They're not registered.
We registered the entire hockey team.
We registered all these incredible patriots.
By the way, men, women, black, white, Hispanic, Asian.
And the Democrats there, they didn't know what to do with it.
They were floored.
We took them by surprise.
Because we went, we set up shop, we didn't care the names they called us.
Thousands of people reached, 150 new Trump voters, and probably thousands of cumulative votes if you count the encouragement, the energy, the passion.
What we did in the bluest county in Wisconsin.
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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Joining us now is Mark Halperin, who is the editor-in-chief and host of the new company Two Way, which I love watching.
A digital platform that brings together creators and influential people with their superfans for extended, sophisticated conversations like none other on interactive video.
And it's been going very viral lately on Two Way.
Mark, welcome back to the program.
Good to be back.
I'm overdressed and I can explain why if you'd like.
Yes, I think you were at the Trump press conference.
Is that correct?
Yeah, well, first of all, it wasn't a press conference.
They advertised it as such, but it didn't take a single question.
I went in the misguided hope that he would, and my general rule is when I go to Trump Tower, I do not wear a Charlie Kirkian t-shirt, but I put on a tie and jacket.
Well, very good.
That's right.
I'm dressed like a grown-up.
Yeah, he would not call on you.
So, Mark, this is some breaking news.
Post that speech that President Trump gave, that presser, was this incredible news that all of a sudden there's no sentencing.
From our perspective, and just reading a lot of left-wing blogs or commentators, for example, like Simon Rosenberg, who's pretty smart, He was banking a lot on sentencing, saying it would change the race, saying that this would really tighten it and favor Kamala Harris.
How big of a deal is this?
Or is it just another rounding error in a very eventful political season?
Well, I mean, look, Charlie, whenever we discuss anything, having a deal is that if the race ends up being super close, everything's a big deal because we don't know what's going to affect these handful of voters and affect turnout.
I do think that those, whether you think President Trump is innocent, whether you think he's guilty, whether you don't know, but you simply think these civil and criminal cases are excessive.
There's no doubt that there are tens of millions of Americans who look at developments in these cases, and even if they don't like Donald Trump, they think it's outrageous.
And he today, and his lawyers, expressed indignity that he had to go through this.
In the DC case, the Jack Smith case, where it looks like there will not be
any sort of significant action before the election, the sentencing in the New York case,
while those things could cut in Donald Trump's favor if they occurred, in other words,
the more lawfare there is, the more money he can raise, and the more outrageous supporters are,
I think probably on balance, and I admit Trump deems it this way,
on balance, it is a big deal to not be either incarcerated,
which I thought was a real possibility, and taken off the campaign trail,
or sentenced to be incarcerated.
They avoid the symbolism of that and he's able to run, dare I say, almost like a normal candidate.
Not encumbered by more legal developments in these cases.
And not burdened by what has been.
Exactly.
Ever.
So how much were Democrats banking on it being part of their strategy?
You would know this much better than I would with Democrats you talk to.
A lot, right?
I mean, there was a long period where they didn't discuss the legal stuff.
They wanted to play it by itself.
But as you know, They've started to refer to him pretty regularly as a convicted felon.
The vice president sometimes tries to tamp down, lock him up, chance at a rally, but not always.
And Orange Man Bad, In its most vivid realization is Donald Trump convicted felon, Donald Trump indicted in four different jurisdictions.
So there are some Democrats who warned against it, who said this is not the way to beat Donald Trump.
But I would say, to go to the heart of your question, Most Democrats who are strategists, members of Congress, etc., have thought, this is where we make it a bridge too far for the swing voters who don't like either candidate to vote for Donald Trump.
And this takes a little bit of the edge off of that.
So it's not a good day for those Democrats.
And there are a lot of them who thought lawfare was going to break the tie in this race.
So there's some other breaking news today about RFK potentially being off the ballot in North Carolina and also off the ballot in Michigan.
This is very consequential as RFK has gone all in behind Donald Trump.
We haven't seen it move that much polling except my home state of Arizona where it has moved the dial.
The polling in Arizona has moved significantly now that it's a binary race and it's not a three or four person race.
We've seen that in the CNN polling and other polling.
So, what is your analysis of RFK being on the ballot or off the ballot, and what does history tell us about a candidate who drops out who is still on the ballot?
Does it matter?
Well, it does.
Again, if it's a close race, there's no doubt that Kennedy on the ballot in any state is going to draw some votes.
Now, is it a lot?
No.
Will the message get out that he doesn't want people to vote for him even though he's on the ballot?
It will to some people.
It won't to others.
I think this is another development that is positive for Donald Trump.
So he's having a good day, even though I think the event at Trump Tower may not have advanced this cause very much.
Having Kennedy off the ballot in two of the seven battleground states where he was going to be on the ballot until this morning is a big deal.
They will still get some votes.
But I think the answer to Kennedy, and you're right, we see it in Arizona but nowhere else yet, is how hard does he work to transfer his support to Donald Trump, to convert the people who are still attracted.
I have people on two-way all the time, just citizens around the country, who work for Kennedy and still may vote for him if he's on the ballot in their state or write him in.
In other words, there's some number of Kennedy supporters who don't say, well, my guy endorsed Trump, so I should be for Trump.
And I think how many he can convert over in a very systematic, binary way will depend on How hard is he out on the campaign trail?
He wrote an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal today, but that's different than going to five diners in Michigan, or inner-city Philadelphia, or a Waffle House in Georgia.
He hasn't done it yet, but he says he's going to, and I think that will make a big difference if he does.
So, and Arizona's probably an outlier with the RFK thing because there is this cowboy libertarian demo in Arizona that they're registered independent, very anti-government, really upset about COVID, and they were parking their vote with RFK, and now the RFK endorsement is definitely a signal towards Trump, and we're seeing that materialize in the polling.
So we now have coming up on Tuesday a presidential debate.
Debates get a lot of eyeballs.
You and I talked about this.
They're fun.
I think they're somewhat helpful.
But in recent political memory, does debate performance dictate actual results?
I mean, you remember Obama had a terrible debate performance with Mitt Romney back in 2012.
So, and then how much should we expect these candidates, specifically Kamala Harris, who's going to be very, very heavily coached, and she'll receive the coaching, to talk to sub-demographic groups in Georgia and Pennsylvania and Arizona?
Speak about the debate, Kamala.
Well, first of all, you say 2012 and say, well, Obama had a bad debate, but he won.
Well, the fact is, the only reason that race didn't get substantially tighter, which it did after the first debate, is because Obama came back and had a very good second and third debates.
So, you know, I laugh when people talk about the 2016 debates because the press corps, which is, you know, just reflexively anti-Trump, said he had horrible debates.
I didn't think you could necessarily say that.
The debates are judged in the first instance on television, on social media, by reporters who act like theater critics or who judge it based on points in their own mind of what counts as a win.
I think Trump was Trump in 2016.
He didn't have uniformly great moments.
But when Hillary Clinton said, you know, you're the puppet, and he said you're the puppet, I think my sense is, just from knowing a lot of Trump supporters and understanding the mentality there, at least a little bit, I think Trump can have a good debate for the voters that he needs, even when the press on CNN and on Twitter says he didn't have a good debate.
So you got to evaluate them in a way to try to get inside the mind, as you said, of some of these subjects.
I think it will be widely watched.
I didn't think the first one was, and it had decent ratings.
I think this one will be very widely watched.
And I think that I sort of can imagine how I think she's going to behave.
I'll be curious to see if Donald Trump is the Donald Trump we saw today on Friday, a man of grievance and anger, or the one we saw on Thursday when he gave a speech about the economy that was much more uplifting and sort of measured rather than angry.
We'll see which Trump shows up, but if someone wins this debate decisively, I think it will move the polls, and I think they'll be the favorite.
And that's not always the case, right?
We don't always have such a clean possibility of, if you win this debate, you're in the driver's seat the rest of the way.
But I think that's true in this case.
Is there a second debate?
I know that's a silly question, but I don't think they've determined one yet, right?
No, it's not a silly question.
There's nothing really on the table.
There's a notion that NBC would get a debate.
Trump previously said he wanted it.
The Democrats said no.
What the Democrats have said is, The Vice President will consider other debate options only after the first one.
I suspect if she wins the first one, her consideration will last all as long as it would take me to chew a piece of gum, which is not very long, and she'll turn it down.
If Trump wins the debate, He probably won't want another one, but he still might, because of the mentality he has, I think, is, well, I won the first one, I'll win the second one, and I'll put her away.
But I don't think we're going to know until after.
And then the question is, what are the rules?
In the past, we've had a town hall debate.
I don't get the sense that that's on the table.
But what would the rules be for another debate?
Would it be just kind of the traditional stand behind podiums for 90 minutes and alternate questions?
These two debate moderators, who aren't very well known to the public, David Muir is a very high-rated broadcaster, but most people don't watch that show because those shows are dinosaurs.
And Lindsay Davis, I think, could walk down the street in Phoenix or in Manhattan and probably not be recognized by very many people.
So they're not that familiar.
The only way you know her is she was one of the questioners when President Trump spoke to the Black Journalists Association a few weeks ago.
Now I know who you're talking about.
Yeah.
So they're the moderators.
They're not known very broadly in the public.
David Muir is more, but not, but still, you know, I've known him a long time.
And I just say, he's not, he's not, it's not like Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw in the days when the evening news anchors were, you know, news gods.
And they're not very well known with the political press corps.
Again, the political press corps can name them, but they're not really students of them the way they would be of a Dana Bash or somebody from cable news.
How this, yeah, exactly.
So how this debate will go.
is really in a large part dependent on them.
President Trump today renewed his attack on ABC.
He didn't name either of the actual moderators of the debate.
He name-checked with one of his nicknames, George Stephanopoulos, and said ABC was so unfair.
Charlie, this is how unfair he said ABC was.
He said they're more unfair than NBC.
That's a lot of unfair in the MAGA mind.
But it's really up to them, right?
Are they going to ask equal questions?
Are they going to focus on hard questions to Trump and then questions to Kamala Harris that are like, how bad is Donald Trump, right?
We've seen some journalists from news organizations like ABC ask completely different kinds of questions to the Republican and the Democrat.
Or will they be fair?
Will they ask a lot of questions about abortion?
Will they ask a lot of questions about immigration?
Like, they got a lot of power in their hands, but I don't have any doubt that the debates make or break, potentially.
The greatest danger I have is that when they impart, it's a very, very dangerous thing.
I hope they don't do that because... Yeah, I agree.
I don't like it.
There's almost no way to do it on either side without bias.
There just isn't.
So that is not the role of a moderator.
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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Martell the audience about two-way in your own words.
Sure.
Two Way is a new platform that's not for centrist, moderates and independents only.
It's for people across the political spectrum who want to talk to people who are campaign managers, strategists, members of Congress, campaign officials from the two campaigns to get a sense of what's going on, but also be part of a community of all Americans so their voices can be heard.
And you can learn.
When people come to the platform, sometimes they get angry and say, well, I don't like that guy because he's MAGA, or I don't like that woman because she's too liberal.
It's an opportunity to learn.
Sometimes I say behind enemy lines, but the point is we're not enemies.
We're all Americans trying to figure this out.
And the idea is to learn, educate.
I use the motto from Elvis Costello, peace, love, and understanding.
I enjoy watching it, because I'm able to see into the Democrat mind, unfiltered in a way, how they view the campaign, how they view politics, and really how they think they're doing, which is hard.
Just when you watch cable TV, you can't get much of that.
Yep.
It's different than cable, that's what we say.
Yes, sir.
Without a doubt.
Much better.
So, Mark, Kamala Harris is campaigning in New Hampshire this week.
That's been considered to be a relatively safe Democrat state.
They've also been doing some campaigning in Virginia and Minnesota.
How much should we read into this, if at all?
Well, some.
And you shouldn't overstate it, but I find the press corps' kind of cover-up and lack of curiosity about this to be kind of extraordinary.
The most valuable asset in any presidential campaign is the candidate's time.
Here you have Kamala Harris going to New Hampshire, doing a campaign event there—not in Michigan, not in Pennsylvania, not in Georgia—and unveiling some economic policy.
Pretty big deal.
They've also sent major surrogates there.
They've sent a team TV money there, they clearly feel like they might be
threatened in New Hampshire.
Now, New Hampshire is not going to be the tipping point state.
Same with Minnesota. It's not like they're going to win those somehow to surprise and
that's going to put them over the top.
But if there's a landslide, which could happen on either side, really, then those
states could call a Republican.
And so they're defending them.
And I think it's fascinating that Politico, you know, which prides itself on
sophisticated coverage, their story about her trip to New Hampshire said,
that this shows Trump's in trouble.
So I'll tell you the other factor, and this is the kind of thing you pick up if you talk to, you know, top Democrats.
Hillary Clinton famously lost Michigan, Wisconsin, barely campaigning there because they thought they were safe.
So if you're a top strategist now in a Democratic campaign, you're haunted by the memory of that.
And so part of why I'm told they sent her to New Hampshire is to be able to say to themselves, well, we're not going to lose New Hampshire because she didn't go.
We're going to go.
My guess is, based on private polling from both parties that I've seen or heard about, is she's up by mid-single digits, five or six.
But given that Donald Trump sometimes underperforms in polling, five or six is a potential problem on Election Day.
I talked to a guy I used to work with at ABC, who's a part of the two-way community, very liberal guy, who lives in New Hampshire.
He's got two daughters, I think they're in their 30s, both very liberal, both vote in New Hampshire.
He says they're not voting for Kamala Harris.
Because they don't like her on the Middle East.
They don't like her on the Palestinians.
Those are two votes that I think a pollster in New Hampshire might say, well, really super 30-year-old women are going to vote for Kamala Harris?
No.
And that's the kind of data point, even though it's anecdotal, that makes me think maybe There's a reason Kamala Harris went to New Hampshire that has to do with the real possibility that Donald Trump could win this state.
Yeah, and just imagine if all of a sudden, you know, Donald Trump was doing a swing through Iowa, which he has nothing planned, right?
A state he won twice.
He still might.
I mean, we don't, but I don't, I don't see any data whatsoever that Iowa's in contention.
So, Mark, in closing here, you deserve great credit, Mark.
You've had the best scoops of this election cycle.
That's why I tell the team to keep booking you.
And about a week, week and a half ago, you said, hey, two-way audience, just so you know, there's some polling that might come out very soon.
And you were mocked by some super lefties.
Oh, no, it's not true.
And you were right about the race tightening and that Donald Trump is going to have a little bit of an uptick and that we're going to be kind of in a pre-June 27th debate reality.
What is then the state of the race based on private public polling or is it just we have to wait for the debate and it's just we can't really tell?
Well we have to wait and we have to see if she does really well in the debate we'll be on a different trajectory than if she does poorly.
What I reported the other day is if the debate is a wash or if he beats her in the debate what some Republicans believe will happen and some Democrats concur by the way is that by the end of this month She might be back to exactly where Joe Biden was before his debate, which is one electoral college path that the four Sunbelt states, including yours, go back to the Trump column, and that her only way to 270 is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's second congressional district.
That narrow path leaves no margin of error.
No one's ever won with one path.
It may not happen.
I'm not predicting it will, but it's a real possibility.
And if it does, Democrats are going to scratch their heads and say, how did we possibly go from overthrowing Joe Biden to picking someone who was in no stronger position than Joe Biden?
If that happens, it's going to be a very painful October for the Democratic Party.
But it may not.
But it's definitely something that could happen.
It's definitely something to watch.
And the private data suggests that's where we're moving.
That whatever bounce she had from being named to the top of the ticket and from the convention might be dissipating.
And that the natural state of those four Sun Belt states may be, not with a huge Trump victory, but comfortable enough, consistent enough in the polling to see that he's going to win those four.
As Trump would say, let's see what happens.
Check out the two-way app.
Thank you so much, Mark, and we'll all be watching the debate.
Thank you.
Great, Charlie.
We're going to have you on two-way soon as well.
We'll get it done.
I look forward to that.
I would love that.
Thank you.
All right.
Thank you, man.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening and God bless.
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