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Aug. 27, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
44:24
Mark Zuckerberg Knows Something. What Is It?
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Hey everybody, thanks for watching the Charlie Kirk Show.
What does Mark Zuckerberg see that we don't see and why is he trying to cozy on up to Donald Trump?
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If you were able to view billions and billions and billions of lines of data, who would you think is going to win the presidential election?
We'll pick that up in just a second.
Mark Zuckerberg, who of course has the artificial intelligence capacity to see billions and billions and billions of lines of data of hundreds of millions of Americans, wrote a letter yesterday to Chairman Jordan.
I'm going to read the letter in its entirety.
Chairman Jordan, I appreciate the committee's interest in content moderation on online platforms.
As you are aware, Meta has produced thousands of documents as part of your investigation and made a dozen employees available for transcribed interviews.
Further to our cooperation with your investigation, I welcome the opportunity to share what I've taken away from this process.
There's a lot of talk right now about how the U.S.
government interacts with companies like Meta, and I want to be clear about our position.
Our platforms are for everyone.
We're about promoting speech and helping—by the way, notice not free speech, just speech.
We're about promoting speech and helping people connect in a safe and secure way.
As part of this, we regularly hear from governments around the world and others with various concerns around public discourse and public safety.
In 2021, senior officials from the Biden administration, including the White House, repeatedly pressured our teams for months to censor certain COVID-19 content, including humor and satire, and expressed a lot of frustration with our teams when we didn't agree.
Ultimately, it was our decision whether or not to take down our content.
We own our decisions, including COVID-19-related changes we made to our enforcement in the wake of this pressure.
I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken about it.
I also think we had some choices that, with the benefit of hindsight and new information, we wouldn't make today.
Like I said to our teams at the time, I feel strongly that we should not compromise our content standards due to pressure from any administration in either direction.
We're ready to push back if something like this happens again.
Now, I'm going to keep on reading this letter, but let me just say, looking back at 2020 and 2021, there's a lot of regret, a lot of, I wish I would have.
You are living through, right now, another COVID-type hysteria.
It's just called the Kamala hysteria.
Let us learn.
the lessons from COVID or we'll be doomed to repeat them.
The letter continues, in a separate situation, the FBI warned us about a
potential Russian disinformation operation about the Biden family and Burisma in the lead up to the
2020 election. That fall, when we saw a New York Post story reporting on corruption
allegations involving then Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden's family, we sent that story
to fact checkers for review and and temporarily demoted it while waiting for a reply.
It's since been made clear that reporting was not Russian disinformation, and in retrospect, we shouldn't have demoted the story.
We've changed our policies and the processes to make sure this doesn't happen again.
For instance, we no longer temporarily demote things in the U.S.
while waiting for fact-checkers.
The letter finishes by saying, apart from content moderation, I want to address the contributions I made during the last presidential cycle to support electoral infrastructure, otherwise known as Zuckerbucks or Zuckerboxes.
The idea here was to make sure local election jurisdictions across the country had the resources they needed to help people vote safely during a global pandemic.
This is all a bunch of BS.
I'll explain in a second.
I made these contributions through the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative.
They were designed to be nonpartisan, spread across urban, rural, and suburban communities.
Still, despite the analyses I've seen showing otherwise, I know some people believe this work benefited one party over the other, and it did.
It heavily benefited Joe Biden and the Democrat Party.
My goal is to be neutral, not play a role either way, or even to appear to be playing a role.
So I don't plan on making a similar contribution this cycle, Mark Zuckerberg.
Okay, so there's a lot there.
Number one, the contribution absolutely did benefit Joe Biden, but he's not doing it this time.
The person who designed the Zuckerbach strategy is now the campaign manager and senior advisor of the Kamala Harris campaign, David Plouffe.
So there's multiple interpretations of this letter.
Let me lead with one that I think can give us a fair amount of hope.
We do not know exactly what is behind this letter, but we understand that Mark Zuckerberg's worldview is about Mark Zuckerberg.
He's a Zuckatarian.
Whatever advances the interests of Mark Zuckerberg, that is what Mark Zuckerberg does.
Whatever makes Facebook stronger, more powerful, he is all in.
He started Facebook.
He's the chairman of Facebook.
He will do whatever it takes to make Facebook bigger, more powerful, and to survive whatever crisis it's going through.
So there are multiple interpretations of this.
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg has evolved ideologically.
Maybe, kind of like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg has been red-pilled.
Maybe Mark Zuckerberg is tired of all the woke stuff and this is his way to fight back.
Zuckerberg has been getting into fitness and MMA.
He's been Around a lot of tech people that are increasingly endorsing Donald Trump.
Mark Andreessen still serves on Meta's board and he has endorsed Donald Trump.
We know David Sachs is in that universe.
We know Peter Thiel previously served on Meta or Facebook's board.
The tech bros, if you will.
That community is split and is increasingly going in Donald Trump's direction.
Not a majority, but increasingly.
But there's another interpretation here.
And it's far more cynical, but hopeful for those of us that want to see Donald J. Trump elected as President of the United States.
Mark Zuckerberg wants to be on the right side of this election.
The other interpretation is that Mark Zuckerberg wants to be friendly with whoever is going to win.
Now, outside of a public opinion poll from the New York Times' Sienna, outside of a poll that CNN could do or Fox News could do, who would probably have the most amount of accurate data of who is going to win the election?
You would think the social media companies that are monitoring keystrokes, postings, liking, commenting, especially with the advent of artificial intelligence, Mark Zuckerberg has probably, however we can't prove it, has probably directed his team to do an eight-year analysis of every major election Analyzing the data, analyzing what it looks like when a candidate is going to win, and then issue a report of, hey, who's going to win this November?
Again, this is somewhat speculation, but Zuckerberg is a very, very smart pro-Facebook advocate.
He likely told his team, go and analyze these billions of lines of data.
What Canada is being talked about more, what regions, what areas.
Mark Zuckerberg has a backdoor into the American psyche more so than anybody else, and only God Almighty knows more about the private thoughts, political affiliations, and motivations of the country.
Mark Zuckerberg literally knows what over 130 million people are thinking and doing on an hourly, minute-by-minute basis.
Big Tech, who runs enough algorithms on human behavior, probably has a good sense of who is going to win.
You can speculate that this is why you are starting to see Zuckerberg trying to come clean.
There is no way his data doesn't reveal some realities that basic polling can't.
The law of large numbers dictates billions of interactions.
And they could potentially be modeled into outcome and behavioral analysis.
Mark Zuckerberg likely told his team, guys, tell me who's going to win.
Go run all the algorithms, do a retroactive analysis of the 2016 election, 2018 election, 2020, and 2022.
And then run the algorithm again of who you think is going to win in 2024 based on all of that data, based on what you are seeing, based on all of the chatter.
And it is likely that we can assume that his team said, sir, based on everything we see, Donald J. Trump, based on the billions of lines of data, is going to win.
Now, that's not a guarantee, but it's a potential explanation for this bombshell, unexpected letter of contrition from one of the world's wealthiest men and tech titans, the Chairman Jordan.
It reveals something.
Zuckerberg wants to be on the winning team.
Again, it's just a speculation, but you think Mark Zuckerberg would write this letter if he thought Trump was going to lose?
No, he would say, Dear Chairman Jordan, I don't have to give you these documents.
We do whatever we want to do at Facebook.
The future is here.
Diversity is our strength.
And you won't be in power much longer.
No, no, no, no.
Mark Zuckerberg is writing this letter.
Because he is seeing something on the back end of Meta, which is America's largest data company, maybe besides Microsoft, is seeing something below the surface that the media might be missing.
Meta is much more accurate than a polling firm.
If you were to have Mark Zuckerberg alone in a room and you said, Mark Zuckerberg, you either get life in prison, just hypothetically, or you tell us what you know about the data of who's going to win the election.
Which one is it?
He would tell you and he would probably be right.
The back end of Facebook or of Meta.
It's worth trillions of dollars, literally.
Well, it's a couple trillion dollar company.
You think about it, you could see what parts of the country are talking about what issues.
You can see what issues are animating what people.
You can see, is it really that Gen Z women are as liberal as they say?
How about Gen X women?
What content on Facebook is resonating?
MEDA can take the political temperature of the country far more accurately than the New York Times, than the Wall Street Journal, than any other polling agency.
Because they have a window into 130 million Americans.
And they aggregate all of that data, and maybe Mark Zuckerberg and his team have become even better at analyzing it, and predicting it, and modeling it.
You see, Zuckerberg does not write a letter like this.
If a Democrat victory was inevitable, and that should give every single one of you in this audience hope.
And I say, oh, Charlie, they're going to steal it.
Oh, Charlie could take it.
No, cut that out.
If it was a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump was going to lose.
If it was a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump, they were going to steal it no matter what, Mark Zuckerberg would have bent the knee and said, Chairman Jordan, go pound sand.
I'm glad I censored.
I want to be friends with the Democrat Party.
Instead, Mark Zuckerberg is hedging.
He's hedging because he sees some fault lines in the back.
Of the greatest data reservoir on planet Earth.
And in the greatest data reservoir that he is only able to see.
It's a little creepy by the way because it's like pseudo god-like power.
It's pseudo kind of like, it's as close to, like, I can see what people are thinking.
That's a whole separate conversation.
I don't like it, but let's just talk about this from a political standpoint.
Mark Zuckerberg can literally look into the private impulses, the private leanings of a civilization.
And he sees something.
He, without a doubt, sees something.
And if he saw what was looking back from that reservoir, ooh, the country's really tired of Trump.
They don't want him.
They don't want any of this.
Then the letter would have been composed completely differently.
It would have been published completely differently.
And back in 2020, that might explain why Mark Zuckerberg wrote the $400 million check for Zuckerboxes.
It might explain why he wrote the $400 million check to help make Biden's victory possible because he probably saw in the reservoir of data back in 2020, ooh, the country's not that happy with Trump's handling of COVID.
This thing's going to be close.
I want to be on the right side of victory because Zuckerberg is a Zuckatarian.
He wants to be on the winning team.
His worldview is a pro-Facebook worldview.
That's it.
It's not Republican.
It's not Democrat.
It's not conservative.
It's not liberal.
It's pragmatic.
What is in the best interest of Facebook?
It's very similar to how someone runs a country.
He looks at Facebook as his sovereign country.
What is in the best interest of the real politique of the Facebook nation?
And he has a, of course he has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders, but he, he wears meta within his DNA.
Now you might say, Charlie, I don't trust Zuckerberg.
That's exactly why this letter is so interesting.
It's a public letter where he is signaling to you contrition and near apology to the very regime that is currently in power, by the way.
But might soon no longer be in power because Zuckerberg wants to be able to be close to Trump if Trump wins and he might see the rumbling precursors, the tremors, before a political earthquake coming in November that would displace Harris from office.
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So understand, the Zuckerberg letter is by no means a guarantee that we're going to win.
But it's a signal that this thing is within the realm of winnable.
In fact, Zuckerberg might be seeing a trend line and seeing a trajectory.
He looks at this not through a political lens, he looks at this through a business lens.
And he has these billions of lines of data and he asks his team of brainiacs, high IQ people, can you model this out?
He asks his team, before I publish this letter, can you model out what this likely looks like in September and October?
What are the hotspots?
In fact, Facebook has so much data.
That he probably had his team say, hey, guys, what are the 15 swing areas in the state of Pennsylvania?
Yes sir, Mr. Zuckerberg.
Butler, Pennsylvania.
Allegheny County.
Center County.
Bucks County.
Luzerne County.
Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Can you pick those 15 and do an analysis?
What were they talking about and how are they trending in August of 2016?
What were they talking about and how are they trending in August of 2020?
And what are they doing now?
And then model out that sort of issue-based chatter, candidate-based support in those 15 areas.
Do the same thing in Arizona.
In Maricopa County.
In Pinal County.
In Yavapai.
In Cochise.
In Coconino.
In Apache.
In Navajo.
In Pima.
Find out what issues they're talking about.
Is this going to be an abortion election?
Or does that really just kind of taper out?
Remember, Meta and Facebook, it's not just that they're able to see what people are talking about.
They can see your location.
They can see your private messages.
They can also see your age and demographic profile.
I mean, from a political trajectory standpoint, or a political analysis standpoint, it's a gold mine.
So Zuckerberg is telling us something.
And he's telling us, at the very least, the most modest interpretation.
Zuckerberg wrote that letter giving everybody in the MAGA movement, everyone that supports President Trump, clarity that we have a very good chance to win.
It's a tell.
It is a total and complete tell.
And one of the reasons why the movement is ascendant, especially on all these platforms, Is we are seeing more and more traditional Democrats join our ranks.
On Friday, we had RFK Jr.
at the Turning Point event.
Yesterday, we had the former co-chair of the Democrat National Committee endorse Donald J. Trump for president.
This barely received any mainstream attention.
I have right here the New York Times.
You would think that if the former co-chair of the RNC A former presidential candidate endorsed Kamala Harris?
It would get some write-up.
New York Times.
Wounded troops find a home and vie for gold.
Russian air raid reminds Ukraine of enemy's might.
Respite is far from a truce in the Middle East.
By the way, just as a side note, front page of New York Times is two separate wars that the United States is funding.
That's important news.
I'm not discounting the New York Times.
I'm a critic of the New York Times, but that's actually legit.
Two wars on the front page of the New York Times that we are funding.
So you would think that somewhere, and again, I looked at the New York Times this morning.
I don't see it.
Tulsi Gabbard, where art thou?
Maybe it's here somewhere.
Deep, deep, deep into the bowels of the paper of record.
I don't see it.
Complete blackout.
So Tulsi Gabbard officially endorses Donald Trump, showing that this is the unity party versus the unit party.
Former Democrats, former Bernie Sanders folks, people that want peace, prosperity, common sense, competency, transparency, and an end of corruption.
That is what this is all about.
It's a coalition of patriots.
It is a bottom-up movement.
Maybe that's what Zuckerberg is seeing.
Zuckerberg interestingly published this letter after the DNC and after the RFK endorsement.
What sort of spike did he see?
What kind of heat map was he looking at?
We can only guess, but the Tulsi Gabbard endorsement certainly only helps Donald Trump's chances.
Play cut 51.
I had the privilege of joining President Trump this morning at Arlington Cemetery, and I can tell you as we were there, as he laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, joining these Marines, loved ones, I felt the sorrow that he shared with them in their loss.
I felt and saw his sincere appreciation For these servicemen and women who paid the ultimate price and their loved ones who continue to grieve to this day.
So I mean what I say when I share with you that I know that President Trump understands the grave responsibility that a president and commander-in-chief bears for every single one of our lives.
Whether you're a soldier, you're an airman, a marine, sailor, or a coastie, he keeps us in his heart in the decisions that he makes.
This is massive.
This is a former Democrat candidate for the presidency.
Former co-chair of the DNC, she was a darling of the Democrat Party.
She was a regime-selected spokesperson.
And similar to Elon Musk, similar to RFK, similar to Donald Trump, they all left a place of left-wing comfort and found a new purpose in fighting for the country they love.
Those are class traitors.
Those are people that left where things were easy, but the country was collapsing and they wouldn't be able to live with themselves, and they decided to fight for liberty, for the citizen, and for we the people.
To leave a legacy.
To oppose the warmongers.
To make America healthy again.
To bring transparency and efficiency back to our government.
To secure our southern border.
Outside, Kamala Harris has some new endorsements that we'll talk about in a second.
And it's ones that we should be thrilled.
Because who's endorsing Kamala Harris?
The people endorsing Kamala Harris are the warmongers, the Iraq War architects, and former CIA station chiefs.
Here is the official endorsement of Donald Trump.
Tulsi Gabbard endorsing Donald Trump.
Play cut 52.
I am proud to stand here before you today, whether you're a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent.
If you love our country as I do, if you cherish peace and freedom as we do, I invite you to join me in doing all that we can to save our country and elect President Donald J. Trump and send him back to the White House to do the tough work of saving our country and serving the people.
Which movement is the one that is adding and multiplying?
It's the movement that is being relentlessly attacked and criticized by the media.
The RFK endorsement is massive.
The RFK endorsement of the first Kennedy ever endorsing a Republican shows that we are seeing a mass realignment.
The Democrat Party is the party of the very wealthy, the very poor, and the very radical.
Let me say that again.
The Democrat Party is the party of the very wealthy, the very poor, and the very radical.
Outside of that, there is not a home for the moderate, the free thinker, for the plumber, the electrician, the welder, the police officer, the firefighter.
There is not a home in the Democrat Party for them.
The Democrat Party is increasingly hostile to the rank and file of labor.
The Democrat Party is hostile to the entrepreneur, the small business owner, the parent, to families.
They have vasectomies and abortion trucks outside of the DNC.
The Democrat Party wants to give no interest, no down payment loans to foreigners in the state of California.
Not an exaggeration.
The Democrat Party has left the people and they are enshrining their oligarchy.
And wouldn't it be easier for Zuckerberg just to cozy on up to that oligarchy?
Wouldn't it be easier for Zuckerberg to be friends with the power center that already exists?
Why wouldn't he do that?
It's a simpler path.
Because Zuckerberg does not want to be on the outside looking in.
And he sees the Tulsi endorsement.
He sees the RFK endorsement.
And there's something beneath the surface that is likely going to bubble up.
And that is only more reason why we need to all go chase ballots.
Download the Turning Point Action app.
To get into the grassroots.
To join our citizen force.
There is no guarantee that we are going to win, but at the same time, there's no guarantee that we are going to lose.
No doom looping, no hopium, no guarantees of victory, no heaviness.
It is the citizen action that will win or lose the election to do the work.
Do you know that we had over 10,000 people at that event download the Turning Point Action app and commit 100?
10,000 people download the Turning Point Action app.
10,000 new people that have pledged to go try to find 100 voters and a chase ballot.
It's not now all of them are not necessarily going to do that.
Maybe it'll be 5 or 10.
That's fine.
We aim for 100 because if you get 60 out of 100, that is a major win.
The exponential impact.
Can we show a picture of that event from Friday, please?
The exponential impact of this citizen revolt.
Look at that.
Imagine if every single one just goes and finds 10 new voters.
16,000 people, 10 new voters.
That's 160,000 new people.
That's how you carry the state of Arizona.
Getting into the communities, getting into neighborhoods, talking to your mom, to your dad, your uncle, your aunt, your cousin, your niece, your nephew, your Uber driver, the person serving you food, the people that bring a lunch pail to work to commit 100 to chase 100.
This election absolutely can be won.
And the momentum, do you feel that?
RFK.
Tulsi.
Zuckerberg's letter.
Turn off the mainstream networks.
Tune out of the noise.
Look at what really matters.
And most importantly, what are you doing every single day to register new voters?
What are you doing every single day?
To find new people and to make them join our ranks.
That work will decide whether the country survives or not in November.
So it's not just Mark Zuckerberg who is seeing something in the data.
Kamala Harris's team is seeing a lot in the data.
In Chicago, for the DNC, the DNC had to make themselves seem as if they were moderate Republicans.
They did not mention the castrating of children.
They did not mention abolishing the Electoral College, adding seats to the Supreme Court.
They didn't mention D.C.
or Puerto Rico estates.
They didn't mention the Green New Scam.
They did not mention taxpayer-funded tuition for illegals.
They did not mention mass amnesty.
They did not mention defund the police.
They did not mention abortions on demand and paid for everybody all the time, but they got close to that one.
No, but they had to pretend they were something they were not because the heart and soul of the Democrat Party is so out of lockstep with the rest of the country.
So they have to lie, they have to deceive, they have to camouflage, they have to pretend to be an organization and a movement, a political party, that they are not.
And one of the most egregious examples that should be laughed at and she should be humiliated is the front page of Axios.com this morning.
Because Kamala's data is showing her something.
You are going to lose on the issue of immigration.
So Kamala Harris, the border czar, who once called walls racist, and that walls don't work, flip-flops on building the border wall.
Axios.com.
Kamala Harris is just the latest example.
of flip-flopping on past liberal positions.
If she's elected president, Kamala Harris pledges hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall along the southern border, a project she once opposed and called un-American during the Trump administration.
This shows how soulless Kamala Harris is, by the way.
This shows that she has no moral center whatsoever.
She will do whatever it takes.
She will ideologically and politically prostitute herself, even though she does not mean to build a border wall.
Do you know that she is showing Donald Trump's border wall in her commercials?
The very same border wall her party tried to get stopped from building.
In fact, do you know that Kamala Harris, as she oversaw the border, she sold the materials to build Trump's border wall?
Off for parts, up to $300 million worth of taxpayer-funded wall components have been left to rust since Biden came to office.
They sold some of the materials for about $2 million, but it was, the debate is whether $300 million or $2 million, it doesn't matter.
They sold off Tons of material.
So she's so in favor of a border wall that she stopped construction, sued of it, called it racist, said that it shouldn't happen, and now sold the materials for a major discount allegedly.
Axios.com.
Harris is embracing a more hawkish immigration policy as Donald Trump's campaign spends tens of millions of dollars attacking her about the border.
Are people going to believe this?
Is this going to work?
It might.
It worked at COVID when we told our kids to stay six feet away from each other.
It worked at COVID when we told everyone to get three shots.
Propaganda works.
Do not underestimate.
The efficacy of well-tailored propaganda.
Do not underestimate it.
It is easy to shrug this off.
Oh, there's no way that people are going to believe Kamala Harris is tough on the border.
Every two years here in Arizona, we see some Democrat running for office, running tens of millions of dollars of advertising, Mark Kelly, Kyrsten Sinema, doing their slow-motion walk next to the border wall, and voters buy it.
Kamala Harris says in Axios, she still has significant differences with Trump on immigration, opposing his approach to family separation and his plans for mass deportations.
It's not family separation, first of all Axios, it's making sure the kid is not being raped by the person that they are being brought across with.
So you do not have 320,000 child sex slaves like we do right now in our country.
Kamala Harris is now All about building the wall.
Now, outside of the fraud of this, this should give you hope.
It shows that the belief system of the American people is so in the conservative Trump direction that Kamala Harris has to accommodate her positions so dramatically, fraudulently, in a fake way, that the body politic of this country Is center-right.
The center-left of America is getting discredited rapidly.
On police, on crime, on homelessness, on the economy, on taxes, on immigration, on war.
They can't actually run on anything that they believe in.
They have to run as moderate Republicans.
And yes, that is frustrating.
Yes, that is difficult.
Yes, it might work.
But the good news is that means the country is not liberal!
That means the country is actually a center-right country.
Otherwise, she would run on getting rid of the border wall, but the people don't want that.
So the people are conservative, now we just need to get them to vote that way.
That's the challenge.
Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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charlie4hillsdale.com Joining us now is Rich Barris from Big Data Poll.
Rich, welcome to the program.
Rich, what is the accurate state of the race?
I see these story after story.
Harris leading Trump by 7 points.
What is the actual polling temperature as it stands today?
There was no bump from the convention, Charlie.
It's a very difficult environment for pollsters to poll in.
So, you know, I'm trying to be at least somewhat understanding with some of these results that we're seeing.
But that plus seven by Fairleigh Dickinson, people, consumers out there, you really have to be on your guard this year.
The polling gimmicks that we're seeing are set to blow 16 and 20 out of the water.
This is a very tight race.
I actually still think that Harris' bump was not big enough to give her a comfortable—to say that she's a favorite, to feel confident to say that.
Trump has been leading for over a year.
It's hard to reset, as you hear people say.
It's hard to reset that considering people still trust Trump on the issues.
So looking out of the convention, if you're Kamala Harris, you really wanted to see an 8 point, 10 point lead like Hillary and Biden had.
I went back and looked after the DNC in 2016.
In our polling, it took about four days, but Hillary got a five point bump and then it evaporated by the end of two weeks.
So if you're Harris, I don't, I mean, I don't really care what these people are saying.
It's not the position you want to be in.
It's a close race.
So are they oversampling Democrats in these polls?
They're overrepresenting them.
So there's a lot of problems without getting too much into the weeds.
You know, I came on your show when we had some big Trump leads.
And I told you, I think this is like Republicans being too willing to participate and Democrats hiding under a rock.
And then when they tried to basically kill former President Trump, Democrats, again, just dug a deeper hole under that rock.
When they removed Joe Biden, ironically, you would think 15 million people would be mad, but they weren't.
When they removed Joe Biden, they energized these people and they started to talk more.
Typically, the Democratic voter, people that are Democratic voting groups, love to take polls.
So you have like these educated people in metro areas that race to take polls.
That stopped for a little bit because they had a walking corpse as a nominee.
Now it's back.
And it's honestly, um, I think it's, it's, it's heading toward being worse than 2020.
And, um, if I hope it doesn't persist, but that's where we're at.
There is a, and they know this.
So what they're doing, I would say, Charlie, the, I think the most accurate way to describe it is that they know about these response bias issues.
They're exploiting them for a narrative.
And then we have these other scams, which is people holding polls for two weeks.
Three weeks.
I've never seen anything like this in my life.
You don't do that.
Polls are snapshots.
There's no good reason to hold a poll back for three weeks.
A month.
Morning consult.
Almost a month.
That's insane.
And then pretend that it's new news.
You know?
Let's go state by state.
What is the state of the race in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada?
So I think that Georgia is a tough lift for her because of the underlying shift that Trump is having with non-white, non-college.
And Rui Teixeira, the co-author of the Emerging Democratic Majority, people should read his blog, The Liberal Patriot.
He's not buying any of these polls.
Almost 30% Black electorate, much of it is not educated.
And that is the voter in these national polls and state-level polls that you're seeing Trump is really doing better with from 2020.
So that non-college number is not inflated by whites.
It's inflated by Hispanics and younger Blacks that are basically 45 and younger are breaking away for Trump.
Not for Republicans, less so, but for Trump.
So Georgia is a difficult, it's very, it's going to be hard for Harris to carry Georgia.
North Carolina is not competitive.
I'm sorry.
It'll be close and don't rest on your laurels, but Michael is not losing his own state.
And North Carolina in 22 when other states disappointed was right there along with Florida.
Voting heavily for Republicans and they had a clean sweep.
It's a difficult state again for the media and public pollsters to poll.
You know, SurveyUSA, which shows Trump down, also had Sherry Beasley up by two.
She got crushed by Ted Buzz.
So, you know, just people got to remember this stuff.
The Rust Belt is going to be tight.
Pennsylvania is going to be tight.
Now, I know people are much, and some people around, you know, Trump supporters, You know, behind the scenes, feel much more confident about Pennsylvania.
I would tell your listeners this.
This is now the third cycle, presidential cycle, where we're seeing this dynamic with the big three, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Michigan kind of looks like it pulls better for Trump.
Pennsylvania looks like it pulls better than Wisconsin and is somewhere in the middle.
And then Wisconsin looks like it's pulling worse and more Democratic, so worse for Trump than the other three.
In reality, in both cycles, Wisconsin voted more for Trump, then Pennsylvania was in the middle, and then it was Michigan.
So it's a telltale sign that we are once again headed for a polling miss.
And I don't know if you've heard this, I'm just going to say it.
A certain pollster that everybody loves and calls the gold standard of the Midwest is apparently withholding a poll that shows Trump very strong in Iowa.
If he is winning Iowa by the margin that poll found, which I'm just going to tell you right now is 19 points.
Yeah, that woman, right?
What's her name?
Anne Seltzer.
From the Des Moines Register.
What are you hearing?
I'm super interested in that.
The poll was Trump plus 19.
And if that is true, in Iowa, Wisconsin is not going to be going for Kamala Harris.
If that's legit, you don't win Iowa by 19 and lose Wisconsin.
Rich, tell me about this.
It still has not been published.
Is this hearsay?
Because that sounds a little ambitious.
And she usually doesn't publish until right before the election, though.
Yeah, no, she'll do periodic surveys.
She will.
Yeah, yeah, she definitely does.
But one, you know, I basically, two people were specific.
It's Trump plus 19.
And then the other one was like, he's got like a 20 point lead.
That's what I was told.
So this would be and I hope this isn't the case.
I really hope it's just scheduled to be released and it just hasn't been done yet.
But this would be the second time that What do you mean by spike?
to poll and that's going to be very unfortunate because a lot of people look up to her in
this industry.
What do you mean by spike?
She doesn't publish a poll that would be good for Trump?
Or bad for a Democrat that doesn't want her to publish it.
So in 2020, she spiked a poll because the Biden campaign and the Buttigieg campaign were complaining about the results.
It had Biden in fourth and it had Bernie Sanders ahead.
The official reason is that they had gotten wind that one of the interviewers didn't ask during one interview about Pete Buttigieg because her screen was zoomed in And as she was reading the prompts, it cut off Pete Buttigieg and she forgot to ask that particular respondent.
So what did the Des Moines Register polls show in 2020, right before the election?
Yeah.
The final was Trump plus 7, I believe.
And Trump won by 8.
And so it's known as the gold standard.
So if she shows Trump up plus 19 in Iowa, that means that working class whites in Pennsylvania are thinking the same way.
And is there a world within the 99 percentile that you win Iowa by 19 points and lose Wisconsin?
No.
I mean, the overlapping, it's getting so much deeper than, you know, race.
The overlapping ancestry and ethnicity.
There's particular Scandinavians in the Midwest that are all, you know, you have Finns and Swedes that are scattered in Minnesota and they're much more liberal, right?
But in Wisconsin and in Iowa, you have Norwegians, which are so, they delivered the Midwest to Trump in 16.
And I mean, people should read the Emerging Republican Majority by Kevin Phillips.
It's a staple.
It really is.
But I mean, he'll explain this.
That is a huge key.
And they simply don't vote differently.
So Southwestern Wisconsin, And the western part, Sauk, you know, Rust, all the way up to the northwest of what we call the Lumberjack area of Wisconsin.
Trump does better than normal Republicans there.
There are three blue counties, but he gets in the 40s.
So does Ron Johnson, by the way.
And other Republicans like Mitt Romney get 30.
Rich, I'm going to stay on you.
I want to know for sure if there's a 19 plus poll spiked and this is during Kamala Momentum.
Yeah, yeah.
Absolutely.
I just want to know if that's legit.
So if you can break that story, that's worth tweeting.
Maybe put her on defense if that's legit.
Rich, thanks so much.
We'll have you on again soon.
Thank you.
All the best, my friend.
Talk to you soon.
Excellent.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us, as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.
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