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May 21, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
28:49
The Low-Propensity Path To Victory
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Join The People's Convention 00:10:17
Hey everybody, Tana Charlie Kirk Show.
So we had a little bit of an audio glitch during the beginning of this episode.
So I'm going to just kind of tell you the story here at the beginning of the episode.
I think it's really important and it's a call to action.
So there's someone who helps our family a lot.
He's a great man.
He's a Christian man.
He's a MAGA hat wearing Let's Go Brandon t-shirt displaying Patriot.
And he was at our house helping with some things around the house.
And I just asked, Hey, are you registered to vote?
He looks down.
He says, No, no, I'm not.
So, but let's fix that.
I registered him to vote, registered his wife to vote.
Boom, two new MAGA patriots registered to vote in Arizona.
And it got me thinking, how many low-propensity voters are out there that are not registered to vote, that believe what we believe, that even wear the apparel that we care about.
You guys can go to tpaction.com/slash vote to register to vote, get your friends to register to vote, and you should become your own one-stop shop voter registration machine activist.
So check that out: tpaction.com/slash vote.
And also get your tickets to our Turning Point Action conference, tpaction.com slash peoples, tpaction.com/slash peoples.
Can volunteer Turning Point USA today at tpusa.com.
That is tpusa.com.
Become a member to support this program.
If you enjoy the show and the work we're doing, members.charlikirk.com.
That is members.charlikirk.com.
Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie.
He's an incredible guy.
His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
Turning point USA.
We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
That's why we are here.
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They are counting on your surrender.
If you give up, they win.
But what if we look back and we realize we were just inches away from victory and that's when we decided to give up?
Join us and thousands of American patriots for the summer convention that all are invited.
You're going to hear how we're going to win in 2024.
With the biggest speakers in the movement, victory, President Donald J. Trump.
We're going to fight and we're going to win.
Charlie Kirk, the late Ramaswamy, Governor Christy North, Dr. Gen Carson, Steve Bannon, Candace Owens, Laura Trump, Senator Rick Scott, Congressman Matt Gates, Benny Johnson, Jack Pisovic, and more.
June 14th through 16th, 2024 is our final battle in Detroit, Michigan.
The great silent majority is rising like never before.
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This is a new ballgame, everybody.
You send a message.
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I'll be honest, if you are in this audience right now and you're not registered to vote or you don't vote, you have to change that.
Some of you kind of, I think some of you guys feel good when you email me at times.
Oh, Charlie, I'm not going to vote because it's rigged.
Snap out of that.
And I'm going to play you a piece of tape because our whole topic this hour is going to be generational theft.
It's going to be the plundering of the young, the bandit class versus the younger generation.
And I'm going to play a piece of tape of 10, 12-year-olds that come to our turning point USA events that want to go chase ballots.
And some people say, oh, I don't want to vote because it's rigged.
It is the downside of not voting is unlimited.
The upside is potentially very great.
Okay, so you might vote, and it might not matter as much as you want, but not voting guarantees the success of the opposition.
I want to play a piece of tape here as we talk more about the war on the young.
Let's go to cut 50, please.
I always focus on Dims and disarray.
Dims have problems.
Why are Dims doing better?
Well, it's not like they're doing all that great.
And they got crazy candidates all over the country.
Have you taken a look at the Arizona Republican Party lately?
So, yes, I am, I don't say frustrated.
And I do think the president has to deal with the age issue is suffocating him.
And he needs to bring up that he's only four years older than Trump, and Trump had his ghoul steal his medical records out of his internist office in January 2017.
The lower propensity you are to vote, the more likely you are to support Donald Trump.
So you look at poll after poll, and I will say this: this needs to be framed and it needs to be reiterated.
Interactive polls, 2024, among those who voted in 2018, 2020, and 2022, let's get this up on screen.
Among those that are the most reliable voters, Donald Trump loses by 11 points.
Amongst those that voted once since 2018, Trump is up 12 points.
Those who have not voted in the last three elections, like the gentleman and his wife who got registered to vote yesterday because of the conversation I had with them, up 18 points.
So who are these people?
These are people that are distrustful of government.
These are people that are very informed, actually, about what is happening in the country, but voting either seems to be an unnecessary task, not something that they were raised to believe was a duty or an obligation.
And Donald Trump crushes with this demographic.
Now, going back to yesterday, there's been a lot of back and forth on whether or not it was a mistake for Trump to accept the debate with Biden, given all of Biden's conditions.
But having the debates televised on network television are mini Super Bowls and can drive low propensity turnout.
And the marching orders for all of us and for all of you are: can you find low propensity voters and get them on the voter rolls?
So we have a website, by the way, at Turning Point Action.
It's very easy to use.
It's called tpaction.com/slash vote.
Let's get that on the bottom.
Where every one of you, it's so simple.
You say, What can I do?
What can I do?
Get your MAGA hat, go to the local coffee shop, hang out there for two hours.
You'll get some negative response.
Okay.
And you'll get some people that say, Yeah, I love Trump.
And you say, Awesome.
Hey, are you registered to vote?
And I guarantee you a fraction or a sliver will say, Nah, or, well, I think I am, or I'm not sure.
You then become a super voter registration machine because the symbol of the movement then attracts.
You become a magnet for voter registration, and you can use that engagement into action.
It is easy just to kind of sit around and complain about what's happening in the country, and they are destroying the country.
But every one of us needs to use our agency.
And this is exactly what we are doing with the Turning Point Action Army here in the beautiful state of Arizona, in the state of Wisconsin, in the state of Michigan, a little bit in the state of Pennsylvania.
We're trying to ramp that up and in the state of Georgia, which is in this period, we're building the relationships, we're embedding ourselves into the communities.
We are finding those low-propensity voters and getting them on the voting rolls.
And I understand some people say, But Charlie, I don't know if my vote is completely secure.
Totally get that.
But you know what's not secure?
You lose the security of the country by not voting at all.
That is the least secure thing you can do.
The least secure thing you can do.
Suzanne has a great email: Help.
How do I convince someone who says, quote, they don't vote in our state of Montana because we only have one electoral vote?
I pointed out the popular vote still matters.
Help.
How do I with this defeatist attitude?
Okay, first of all, Montana has more than one electoral vote.
I believe it has four electoral votes.
Number two, you have an unbelievably important senatorial race that can determine and dictate the entire direction of the U.S. Senate, which is defeating John Tuster and get Tim Sheehy elected, which is incredibly important.
So that can push back against that defeatist attitude.
So that person, Suzanne, who tells you, doesn't even know what they're talking about.
But secondly, it does not even matter if you are in the deepest red Alabama.
Voting takes five to seven minutes at most.
We're not asking you to storm Normandy Beach.
We're not asking you to scale El Capitan in Yosemite.
We are asking you to fill out a document, sign it, and that's it.
You don't have to do what we're doing at Turning Point Action, where we are going into the 107-degree heat all summer to knock on doors, to smile at new low-propensity voters and to try to get them on the voting rolls.
You don't have to do that.
Balancing Budget And Kids 00:09:56
Somebody said it great to me.
They said, Charlie, it's like paying my rent.
It's just like filling out a document and putting it in there.
And if you think that's not secure, which totally understand, then go in-person early vote.
Trump fell short in Arizona by 10,000 votes in 2020.
In Andy Biggs' district alone, there's over 10,000 voters who voted in 2016, who stayed home in 2020.
One congressional district could have flipped the state, and we're working at Turning Point Action to try to change that.
And it's one demographic in particular the Democrats are worried about.
It's low propensity, but very heavily Democrat.
It's those frat bros.
It's how college towns used to be these deep blue districts, and they might jeopardize the Democrat formula.
Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
Another day, another breaking news story.
Buried.
They'd rather talk about everything else than what's really going on.
It's not because they don't know what's happening.
The media pundits and talking heads just don't want you paying attention.
The real stories, you have to look behind the headlines for them.
You know, the truth is being covered up.
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You are living through an unprecedented set of political, economic, financial, and cultural decisions.
This was best displayed during COVID.
Now, I know many of you in this audience were against what our leaders did during COVID, and you found it morally objectionable.
And I have to say that because I'm going to dive into this into great detail.
I've been warning for the last 10 years about a troubling trend in Washington, D.C., especially through our fiscal policies called generational theft.
When I first started Turning Point USA, in the previous high school effort that I had before it with some great friends, the mantra was stop generational theft.
Stop generational theft.
At the time, the national debt was around $11 to $12 trillion.
Now it's upwards of $35 trillion.
Our argument was that the national debt is plundering and stealing the financial future and the security of a generation that does not yet have the right to vote.
I would go around to tea party groups and I'd speak to a lot of organizations and they'd say, oh, yeah, you know, the debt's a big deal.
I said, we have to cut spending.
We have to balance our budget.
It was complete highway robbery.
And they would say it's always kicking the can down the road.
Now, it was simple to talk about the fiscal and the economic side of it.
It's not that hard.
All that's publicly available.
The more difficult part of it to talk about was the morality, the morality or the lack thereof, or the immorality of a ruling class looking their grandkids in the eyes and saying, yeah, I don't love you that much.
Now, that might sound cruel, but that is exactly what the ruling class in America have done over the last decade.
We started with undisciplined fiscal spending.
We paired that with adventurous, needless, no-win wars in the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan, widespread regime change that ended up being so destructive to the American homeland and not actually going after terrorists.
2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, we borrowed, borrowed, borrowed, borrowed.
Donald Trump was largely a response of the elders of society of people that were worried that we were not actually passing down a stable country to our children in 2016.
But if we're honest, it's both political parties that have been plundering the next generation.
2020 came, and we shouldn't be surprised that all of a sudden D.C. went to their default setting.
The default setting of Washington, D.C. is do what is easy, do what is expedient, the kids be darned.
Who cares about the children?
During COVID, we made a decision.
I didn't.
I was against it.
I was very early against the COVID lockdowns.
I was very early.
I was like one of the first voices under great condemnation.
In fact, I went on Steve Hilton's program on Fox News and we said the cure cannot be worse than the disease.
And we were called, you know, the worst name, super spreader, granny killer.
And think about it, granny killer.
No one wanted grandma to die.
No one does.
But shouldn't the moral and the social contract have always been that senior citizens actually don't come first?
Now, I know that's a thought crime to say, but isn't the social contract that the children should come first?
And even saying that out loud was met with massive backlash.
In fact, I'm going to probably get nasty emails right now for even mentioning that.
That the social contract should have been: we don't want elderly people to unnecessarily die.
However, shutting down schools because the kids might get infected, so then they might go see grandma.
Anyone will tell you that children go on the rescue boats first in a society, that children are evacuated first when the house is on fire, that women and children are protected most in a theater of war.
Where did we go wrong here?
We went wrong in a multi-decade cascade of moral and political errors.
And these moral and political errors, the moral especially, was we cannot disrupt me being the baby boomer ruling class.
And I know many of you are not of this mentality, but it's just true, which I don't care about my grandkids.
So we're going to hand them $35 trillion of debt, a nation full of foreigners, a multi-decade track record of no-win wars and hyperinflation.
And again, many of you are totally against that.
And so I'm not looping you into it, but it's what has occurred.
And this generational theft is now hitting a fever pitch.
You have a generation that will not inherit a better America than their parents.
Their parents will have had a better country than they have, and they know it.
One number in particular: house prices, housing prices since COVID are up 54%.
54%.
Now, if you own a home like I do, we're the winners, but I'm 30 years old.
I'm not 19.
If you are 68 in this audience and you worked hard to pay off your mortgage, you got 54% richer.
54% richer since COVID.
And it's not just the financial.
They're more obese.
They're more likely to die.
They're more likely to commit suicide.
They're more depressed.
They're more anxious.
It is across the board, multi-generational theft.
Play cut 53.
For the first time in our nation's history, a 30-year-old man or woman isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30.
That is the social compact breaking down.
People aged 30 to 34, 60% of them in 1990 had one child.
Now it's 27%.
People are opting out of America.
They're not optimistic about it.
They're not having kids.
Young people aren't having sex.
They're not meeting.
They're not mating.
The pool of emotionally and economically viable men shrinks every day, which lessens household formation.
So we have a real issue.
Young people are enraged.
So it turns every cut, every movement into an opportunistic infection because, quite frankly, they are just pissed off.
And it goes on from there where he goes into the numbers and the data.
If you don't believe what he's saying, play cut 63.
Adult white males between the ages of, say, 18 and 25 to 30.
The economy sucks.
You're probably never going to buy a house.
Your degree is useless and left you in mountains of debt.
You're nowhere near capable of providing for a wife and kids.
And you can't imagine yourself settling down with any of the women in your age bracket anyway because Disney princess programming and feminism has left them fundamentally unwifable.
Grown up in a culture which has celebrated every other form of identity besides you and in exact proportion to how much they're not you to the point that now schools and companies can hire based on that metric.
All the while being told you can't complain or notice any of it because of how privileged you are.
And if you don't know how privileged you are, it's because of your privilege.
Even though you're basically a debt slave with minimal hope of a financial and familial future because your economy and culture has abandoned you.
So a lot of dudes just checked out and started like smoking weed and playing video games.
Some of the other ones went to countries where they like white people and men, like Thailand, I guess.
Winning Elections Through Persuasion 00:07:24
And some of them were like, you know what, this is a good challenge.
None of it makes sense.
It's all going to.
But I want a big house.
And if you come on my land, I'm going to shoot you with guns.
I want a bunch of kids and a wife turning butter.
I'm going to make it happen.
You f ⁇ .
The Democrats have a problem.
By the way, both parties are to blame for this, but Republicans at least are noticing this and have a plan and an agenda.
And the agenda, Donald Trump's agenda, putting the country first, curtailing hyperinflation.
I have made this advice publicly and privately to President Trump.
In the debate and in his rallies, he needs to be very clear.
And when he goes to college campuses this fall, which I hope we're going to host a couple campus events for either him or his vice president, future vice president, whoever it is, you know, we have a great campus infrastructure, hope to do it.
The president Trump needs to say, forget the noise, forget the chatter.
As president, I will make it easier to do three things: get married, have babies, own a home.
If I'm president, those three things will be achievable for you.
The three M's: mortgage, marriage, mating.
If I am president, those three things will be in your grasp.
That American dream will be accessible to you because it's not right now under the big government oligarchs of Joe Biden and his cronies.
The amount of money that they're printing, the federal government spending, the national debt load, the foreign invasion happening on the southern border, the reckless foreign adventurous wars.
And I'm going to get into this article from the Federalist, which is illuminating about how Democrats are increasingly concerned that these college campuses might end up working against them.
And I just have to give credit where credit is due.
The hard work that Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action have been engaged in over the last 11 years, the grind might come to a crescendo this November.
We'll see.
There is zero enthusiasm for Joe Biden right now on campus, and there's a lot for Trump.
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This story is remarkable from the Federalist.
And it is right on message for what we've been talking about.
How the college student vote, how college student voters could blow up Democrats' ballot harvesting election ploy.
There are two ways of legally winning elections, William Doyle writes.
You can mobilize your current voting base and get them to the polls, or you could persuade voters who are not in the current voting base to go to the polls and vote for your candidate.
It is no secret that Democrats have come to favor election strategies based on mobilization rather than persuasion over the last 10 years.
Mass mail and balloting and ballot chasing and low propensity voting, micro-targeting is how they do it.
They mobilize their base through a combination of ballot chasing, of micro-targeting, of issue selection.
The Guiding Light of the Democrats Voter Mobilization Strategy is a very interesting book, which I encourage you guys to check out.
Cass Sunstein and Sasha Eisenberg wrote this.
It's called Nudge.
That's actually not the best book.
There's another one that they wrote all about how they plan to win elections.
It's called The Victory Lab, The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.
It is remarkable and it shows exactly how these Democrats employ these tactics.
What if I told you all this money they've been pouring into voter mobilization on college campuses might actually be money that works against them?
The gathering clouds are as follows.
While the base is unstable, efforts to chase ballots or register voters using the nonpartisan 501 techniques expose Democrats to some intractable vulnerabilities.
Over the last month, some Democrat strategists and donors have begun to acknowledge these vulnerabilities.
In a recent blog on his website, Democrat adjacent journalist Nate Silver neatly summarized the Democrat problem.
He says, quote, Democrats usually assume they win elections through turnout rather than persuasion.
It's not a crazy proportion by any means, but it looks like a losing approach for 2024.
But the widespread assumption among Democrats that they can just run back to their 2020 strategy or take a page from the Obama 2012 playbook appears to be flawed.
There's still plenty of swing voters and they're swinging towards Trump.
On college campuses, it's even worse.
On college campuses, this is a group where they are used to winning plus 30 points.
For example, Democrats will ultimately have to submit to a real-world statistical reality and give up the delusional saving our democracy or such magical thinking.
The return on investment of ballot harvesting, a D plus 29 student demographic, which existed in 2020, is far higher than an ROI in a D plus five student demographic, which is more reflective of the reality that Democrats are likely to face this fall.
In addition, students might go to RFK, young men are going to Trump.
So Democrats very well might be harvesting the very communities that could help Trump.
Democrats' mail and ballasting, ballot canvassing and harvesting machine will have to do with that, the $330 million from Mark Zuckerberg's Center for Technology and Civic Life.
We'll be operating in a system where Republicans are more attuned than ever to the potential Democrat dirty tricks.
Finally, William Doyle writes: Republicans who have been blackpilled into losing hope of winning future elections by Democrats almost miraculously, almost miraculous ability to win through use of mail and ballots may be in for an unexpected surprise this fall.
You got to get to work.
The plumbing of Democrat elections is good, but their policies are so bad that the plumbing might actually work against them.
That the infrastructure that they have built in communities that they have largely dominated, these might be more swing communities like Tempe, Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, Flagstaff, Arizona, Madison, Wisconsin, Columbus, Ohio, Tallahassee, Florida, Gainesville, Florida, college towns.
Where they used to win by 30 points, they might win by six points.
They might win by 10 points.
Losing by less is one of the ways that we are going to be successful.
Narrowing The Victory Margin 00:01:10
So, in addition, we have to find every single low-propensity voter and engage in that persuasion.
And that persuasion is very simple.
Are you richer or poorer?
Do you have more purchasing power?
Do you have more money after taxes and inflation?
What do you own, if anything?
Are there more wars or less wars?
And the invasion on the border, is it accelerating or is it managed?
And the invasion is being co-sponsored by the current regime.
And I'm going to close with how I started this hour.
Every single one of us have the agency to make a difference, especially in these battleground states and the Senate swing states like Ohio and Montana.
You find one low-propensity voter today and do that every day from now to the election, you can make a disproportionate impact to save the Republic.
Get them registered to vote.
Get them on the rolls.
Find the people in your circle first.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.
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