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May 16, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
35:34
Smiling In The Face Of Danger
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Rallying Behind The President 00:12:14
Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
On this hour, we break down how the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives are rallying behind the president and why that's actually important.
Then we welcome Rich Barris, pollster extraordinaire, who's just been added to 538, whose polls have just been added to 538, to talk about does a conviction really matter or not.
We also go through the Senate, we handicap that, and then we go to the blue wall.
We turn our attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and I make him handicap which state is the most likely to fall of the three.
It's a very, very important episode.
It's a very, very critical conversation that has wide-ranging implications on November.
You're not going to want to miss it.
Rich is the best.
Buckle up.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses.
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie.
He's an incredible guy.
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They are counting on your surrender.
If you give up, they win.
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You know, I woke up this morning and my six-year-old had a tough night, so I didn't get much sleep.
So I was up actually really early, and I'm looking at the news.
I'm going, this is kind of a slow news day.
And then by about five, six in the morning, yeah, I was up early.
I realized, oh boy, this day is heating up and there was a lot to get to.
So just lay it out for you.
We've got primaries that happened yesterday.
There's big news on that front.
We also have Michael Cohen is going in for cross-examination again.
And then we've got this Harris Butker story that we played during the Cold Open on Real America's Voice.
It was, it's a crazy story, a phenomenal story on some level.
True modern day persecution.
We have, again, Michael Cohen.
We've got the House Freedom Caucus along with Matt Gates, who's not technically in the Freedom Caucus, out front of the New York trial, speaking out on behalf of the president.
I love how this is becoming a pilgrimage for the defenders of Donald Trump.
And you're seeing people rally behind him in new, fresh ways, which is really exciting.
This kind of activity should have been happening a long time ago.
And actually, let's start there.
Let's start there.
And I'm going to start right here with a turning point alumnus.
That would be Rep Ana Palina Luna out of Florida.
Let's go ahead and take 123.
This just happened.
A member of Pass Oversight, who's a Democrat, prepared Cohen for his testimony, is also retainered by the judge's daughter as a client.
Does that seem like it's not sham to you?
It is corrupt lawfare.
It's the Biden prosecutions.
And Biden, you're going to lose this election cycle.
Rep Luna bringing it.
I love that.
Let's go ahead and play CUT 124.
I've served all over the world in Africa, the Middle East, and it's South America.
And this is the type of country, those are the types of countries where they weaponize the judicial system against their political opponents.
Maduro weaponized the judicial system in Venezuela against Widow.
Every prime minister of Pakistan knows if they lose to the other side, they're going to get put in jail.
Is this what we want America to become?
This is what we're becoming.
So when we do this sort of song and dance in DC or we write the strongly written letters or we give the fire one-liners from our congressmen and congresswomen, there is a temptation for even on us on the conservative side for our eyes to glaze over.
Let me explain why what you're seeing outside of that courthouse.
And again, it started with Ken Paxton.
People need to remember Ken Paxton was the first to make the pilgrimage to New York in defense of Trump, the show trial, Kafka show trial.
And now we saw JD Vance, Byron Donalds.
Today you have the whole House Freedom Caucus.
You've got Boebert Gates, Ana Paulina Luna, many others.
Andy Biggs, I got a clip from Andy Biggs.
Thank you, Ryan.
Rick Scott.
Why this is important is because it shows that there is a seed change in the conservative movement.
Shows like Bannon, shows like the Charlie Kirk show, Jack Pesobic, which follows this, are building up a reservoir of courage and strength within the conservative movement that it has lacked for decades.
This is them saying, yeah, our guy might be sitting in a courtroom, but we got his back.
It's called backbone.
And yeah, the Republican Party needs to stop writing strongly worded letters and get to some real action, get some real results.
But guys, right now, keeping the regime on the defense, keeping the messaging out front, making sure that those clips go viral, making sure that the average American is just trying to get to work, get his kids fed, get them to school, understand what's going on right now in New York City.
This civilizational defining attack on our democracy that's coming from the left, not the right.
They project it onto the right.
They need to know that this is happening.
They need to be bombarded with it time and time and time again.
You might get distracted.
You might get discouraged.
You might get to the point where you don't want to hear this anymore.
You want to see people in handcuffs and leg irons.
I've been there.
Trust me, I've been there.
But right now, we have to deal with what is possible and what's doable.
And this kind of message, this kind of support for our president is so important.
He's the leading contender to be the next president, 45 and 47.
So in the past, the Republican Party would have run.
They would have tried to take care of their own backside.
They would have hemmed and hawed.
They would have hedged.
Not anymore.
And we have much work to do.
And Turning Point is doing a lot of work.
You know, it's funny.
Charlie and I were laughing at this meme we saw this morning.
And it was a two-by image.
There was a left and a right.
It was a meme.
And on the one side, it showed that, you know, it asked the question, what have progressives actually progressed?
It's such a regressive party.
But on the other side, it said, what if conservatives really conserved?
Both are true, sadly.
And we understand what it's like to be disappointed with our party.
We understand what it's like to be let down.
Trust me, we live this every day.
There are more days in this movement where I scratch my head and I just feel totally ticked off at how feckless our leaders are.
But we are changing that.
And when you see a whole group of them go up and say, I don't care that the city of New York is trying to, you know, throw the book at our former president, the first time in American history that that type of step has been taken.
They crossed the Rubicon, but they did it for such a crappy case.
Pardon my French.
They did it for this guy, Michael Cohen, a proven liar.
They did it for a Soros-backed DA, Alvin Bragg.
They did it for this president, who is abysmal.
His record is so terrible that you cannot put lipstick on this pig.
They threw our nation into turmoil for all the wrong reasons, backing all the wrong guys.
And so thank God these people are in New York.
Thank God that they have the courage and the backbone and the spine to fight back and to push back and to do it earnestly.
Yeah, I'm sick of the strongly worded letters too.
But everybody in America needs to see these clips.
Everybody that hasn't seen them yet, because there's millions of them.
And you better believe the mainstream news media is not going to at all do this work for us.
We have to fight over the narrative.
We have to have a patriotic reset in this country.
And we have to have people with courage, with fight.
You know, we've gone over the whole Speaker Mike Johnson thing.
Listen, disappointment after disappointment, betrayal after betrayal.
We get it.
But guys, I want you to take heart that the movement is coalescing around President Trump.
The Never Trumpers are on the ropes.
They're switching over this Israel deal.
There was an article last night from the New York Times saying Wall Street is warming to President Trump.
They don't necessarily like him, but guess what?
They can read patterns.
They can see trends.
They know that Joe Biden's been terrible for their business.
So guys, there's a lot to be grateful for and positive about.
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Trump's Voice In Court 00:05:37
There are things we can say that President Trump is unjustly not allowed to say.
This is a corrupt judge.
These are corrupted witnesses.
This is a corrupt prosecution.
And so we're going to keep speaking out against this.
We're going to keep fighting against this.
Whether it's Michael Coangelo who went from the DOJ to New York City, whether it's Fonnie Willis, his boyfriend, who billed the taxpayers of Georgia for time up here in New York City, colluding with the Department of Justice, we are President Trump's voice.
We have his back.
He will ultimately be proven innocent.
And that's reps Matt Gates and Bob Good defending the president outside of the New York City courthouse.
Now, again, some people might say this is kabuki theater.
I get it.
I get it.
I want real actions.
I want real results too.
I do.
But bottom line is we have to keep messaging this.
We have to keep messaging this.
They are Trump's voice right now.
We are Trump's voice.
All of you are as well.
Because ultimately, what's happening, even the naysayers will admit this is a sham show trial.
This is an utter sham.
They want you to get fixated on the fact that Michael Cohen is alleging such things.
They want to get you fixated on salacious details with Stormy Daniels.
None of that matters.
None of this would have been brought against anybody besides Donald Trump, and we know that.
So thank you to the congressmen and women who have the courage in the backbone to defend our president and the leading candidate for president in November, Donald Trump.
All right.
Other big story that came out this morning.
As I'm sleep deprived, my kids didn't let me get any sleep last night.
And I'm looking, oh my gosh, this day is heating up.
We have now found out that this, the transcripts, Robert Hur transcripts, they've been looking for the audio recordings.
Joe Biden is now officially invoking executive privilege to block the release of his interviews with special counsel Robert Hurr.
This is really, a really amazing development in this story.
And I'll explain why.
So Joe Biden was basically, he had to sit with special counsel Robert Hurr to about his mishandling of classified documents.
By the way, documents that he took out of the White House when he was vice president, he did not have authority to declassify anything.
So instantly, the case is distinct from the Jack Smith case, the documents case in southern Florida.
President Trump had the right to declassify documents.
Joe Biden didn't.
So that's one.
But number two, special counsel Robert Hurr declined to prosecute Joe Biden because he was feeble, because he was an elderly old man who couldn't remember things.
So we have the transcripts, but we don't get to hear how Joe Biden said stuff.
We don't get to hear how much he has declined, especially when he's not shot full of whatever he gets in the nether regions and those B-12s and the Adderalls or whatever they're giving him.
So when he's sort of behind the scenes, what does he sound like then?
What are they hiding?
Here we go.
Rep Van Drew asked the same question.
Let's go ahead and play Cut 122.
Well, we do have the transcripts, so why do you care so much about us getting the audio?
What's the big deal?
Gentlemen, was he competent?
Did he know what he was doing when he made this deal and used these papers to make money on the presidency?
That's what we need to know.
We need to know if we have an incompetent, incoherent president or if we have a president that is being helped through the two-tier system of justice again, just like they tried to help his son.
So, again, listen, I'd love for Joe Biden to be impeached.
I'd love for Mayokis to be impeached and actually removed.
Both of those were long shots at this Senate.
Let's just be honest.
But what this does is it makes the regime, the administration look awful.
They look weak.
Even yesterday, when Joe Biden was trying to act like a tough guy by saying, hey, bring it on, Donald.
Let's do these debates.
He took the bait that Donald Trump had laid for him.
He sprung the trap.
He has no record to run on.
Now, a lot of people are wondering if, you know, Joe Biden has some ulterior motives of the debate.
I'm of the camp.
He has no record to run on.
He looks weak again, hiding a transcript because we know, you know, we all know that the reason he doesn't want that thing getting out is because he sounds like a feeble old man who can't be held culpable for his crimes.
There is no other possible explanation, but the White House is spinning it.
They said the absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal to chop them up, distort them, and use them for partisan political purposes, White House counsel Ed Siskel wrote in a letter to Republican House leaders.
Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally protected law enforcement materials from the executive branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate.
Well, I'm pretty sure we've seen documents get mishandled and manipulated for partisan purposes from this White House.
Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
Another day, another breaking news story, buried.
They'd rather talk about everything else than what's really going on.
It's not because they don't know what's happening.
The media pundits and talking heads just don't want you paying attention.
The real stories, you have to look behind the headlines for them.
You know the truth is being covered up.
Polling Numbers And Race 00:14:26
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Without further ado, Rich Barris, welcome to the show.
Yes, and thanks for having me back, as always.
Man, it's always a pleasure.
Rich, I'm going to start with the good news first.
You just got added, your poll, Big Data Poll, just got added to a rather well-known polling site, 538.
I know you've had your disagreements with its former, I don't know if he was the founder or the editor or whatever, Nate Silver.
He's gone now.
538 has taken Big Data Poll.
It's a big move.
Congratulations.
And thank you.
You know, that's a long time coming, Andrew.
Honestly, it's a long time coming.
That was a dirty move Nate Silver pulled on us back in the day, years and years ago, which regardless of what, you know, if you're a leftist and you follow polls in 538, it's like a Bible to you, right?
But, you know, they do have some influence.
So doing what he did, I don't know, Andrew.
I mean, out of jealousy, I don't know what it was, you know.
So I'm glad to see they did the right thing.
They joined decision desk who's always had our backs.
They have always had our backs.
And yeah, I mean, if you want your model and your average to be more accurate, then the best thing you could do is add the more accurate polls.
And we have been there.
So it's a victory.
Yeah, congratulations.
Well deserved.
Well deserved, my friend.
Okay, so I want to get into that.
You know, we're talking about Michael Cohen, New York.
I'm going to get to that and then I'm going to get to the primaries that were some results yesterday that we need to get into.
But okay, let's just play this out.
It's a total sham show trial.
We know that, but it's New York.
He gets convicted.
Trump is convicted of whatever the crime is that they're alleging happened that didn't happen or whatever.
What does that do?
There's polling that says from ABC Ipsos 80% will continue to support him, but 16% said they will reconsider and 4% say no longer support him.
Is this what you're seeing?
Is it accurate, Rich?
It isn't, Andrew.
And I'm going to tell you why.
I'm going to go ahead and agree with Obama's pollster, who told CIMAFOR, I believe is the name of that site, that if you believe that if you believe those numbers, then you're either believing Republicans who are lying to pollsters or you're lying to yourself, because we just live in an era where that's not going to happen.
Look, and by the way, there's been other reputable polling from the Wall Street Journal, which is jointly conducted by Tony Fabrizio and a leftist that basically say that Trump has a popular vote lead, something we never thought he would have.
And if he was convicted, then we were looking at more like a Biden plus one, you know, ballpark there.
That's not enough for Biden to win.
Look, if Joe Biden was convicted of a crime and ran for president, 20% of Republicans, 15%, I mean, if Democrats, 15% of Democrats, Andrew, would not vote for the Republican candidate.
We live in that kind of a country.
And it doesn't, those questions are incredibly misleading.
And Ipsos, by the way, just to take a trip down memory lane, they did this during the impeachment as well.
They're also the poll that Morning Consult touted in 2016 after the Billy Bush tape came out that said 22% of Republicans in Florida are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because of the Billy Bush tape.
At the end of the day, that did not happen.
So again, and by the way, in the case of the impeachment, that did not happen, right?
What happened?
Donald Trump became the sitting president to get the most votes ever, ever in history.
So yeah, I just, I don't buy them.
Those are questions.
People know the quote, correct response when you ask them.
They're very bias injecting and they don't encapsulate the whole story.
I think you're right on that, Rich.
I think you're right on that.
So let's, and by the way, this is, I started the show with this.
This is why, you know, mainstream Republicans getting out, calling a spade a spade.
The sham show trial in New York is very important.
The voters that might be a little bit squeamish, that might be like, oh, well, he's, you know, now the press is just going to say convicted felon, Donald Trump, convicted felon, Donald Trump's convicted.
That's all they want.
They're willing to throw the society into chaos just to get those two words attached to his name.
So that's why all of these people making the pilgrimage to New York is so important.
So, okay, I said my piece.
I want to go to Washington Post.
Let's reflect on the primaries from last night.
Republicans' chances at winning the Senate has just skyrocketed.
Okay, what happened?
Now, so, I mean, I'm going to just be honest.
I'm not a huge Jim Justice fan, but Trump got behind him, endorsed him in West Virginia.
Manchin's retiring.
It's probably going to be a pickup.
Am I right?
That's, I mean, yeah.
And the truth is, I mean, I don't know why that was a surprise to them.
The Senate, Republicans would, Andrew, they can screw up an opportunity like nobody else, the Republican Party, but they would really, really, really have to bomb this one to not win control of the Senate.
The only question was ever, the only question ever was by how many seats.
And we expected Jim Justice to win this.
So I don't, you know, they act like they just fell off the turnip truck or something.
You know what I mean?
This was uh, but I understand where they're coming from.
It's just that I think that West Virginia is a goner for Democrats at this point.
Even the Joe Manchins wouldn't survive it, you know, they just can't.
Right.
So let's turn our attention.
So I think we okay, that gets us to 50-50, right, Rich.
So let's turn our attention to let's turn our attention to Maryland.
All right.
This is where we've got Larry Hogan now is going to be going up against Angela Osso Brooks, the Democrat, who beat Trone, right?
Who spent $60 million of his own money?
So go ahead and throw this polling up 138, guys.
This image.
So this is concerning to me when we're getting into it.
So, you know, if you go back, even as recently as April 7th through the 10th, Opinion Works had Hogan 54, 36, Goucher College, 44, 40, 50, 36, and so on.
But more recently, Hogan is polling behind the Democrat opponent, Angela Osobrooks.
What are you seeing in this race?
Does you know our audience obviously is not going to be big Larry Hogan fans?
He's kind of that never Trumper Republican.
But let's be honest, Rich, this is a blue Maryland.
He's probably our best hope of picking up an R out of Maryland.
What's his chances as we come down the stretch in the general?
There are a lot more races that need more attention and more money than Maryland.
I'm sorry, but this is, I've been warning people for months, this is fool's gold.
Even when we saw these polls that were insane, I think Spencer over at Emerson is dead right.
I think that's probably the status of the race.
You were looking at a popular governor with name ID in some early polls before people were really locked in on the Democratic nominee, just benefiting from that name ID and being a popular governor.
However, governor races, as I tried to tell Team DeSantis and all of the influencers throughout the primary season, popular governors do not translate into national office strengths.
So if a governor decides, like Phil Bradenson, for instance, thought they, everyone thought that he could beat Marshall Blackburn because he was a popular Democratic governor in a southern state.
That did not happen.
But you have these fools, and I'm sorry, I didn't mean to be brutal here, but I'm going to be brutal.
You have these fools in the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the McConnell team.
They're stupid.
They're not smart people.
They waste millions and millions and millions of dollars, tens of millions, hundreds of millions every cycle trying to understand the map and what is worthwhile to spend money on and what isn't.
And Maryland is again, I just, I'm telling you, I think it's fool's gold.
I do.
I think that's why Larry Hogan's going to be beat by the PVI.
Yes, which is a partisan voting index, by the way.
Of course.
So you're basically saying, Rich, governor is local.
People can actually, the voters are smart enough to detach that from a national race.
But when you have a presidential race, especially when you're voting on federal offices like U.S. Senate, they tie it to the national race, the presidential race.
That makes sense.
All right.
So let's go to Arizona, Cary Lake, Gallego.
There you go.
I'm just saying, like, it's 40 years of research here.
I mean, when Tip O'Neill said all politics is local, Andrew, that's what he was talking about.
Good, you know, there's been Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont.
They could never win a Senate race.
Well, yeah.
I mean, listen, if I was a moderate, I could see myself wanting to sort of, you know, create a hedge to the national trend locally and vice versa.
I mean, it's not my way, but I can at least get behind the logic.
Carrie Gallego, Carrie Lake, Gallego in Arizona.
This is one where I do think, again, the partisan voting index will start to tighten.
I do know of a swing voter in Arizona that could vote and did, by the way, voted for Donald Trump, but then voted for Mark Kelly.
Mick Sally was losing these voters by about three points when Donald Trump was stomping them by about 30.
Carrie Lake will have to work on dealing with those voters.
I'm not sure there's, they know her.
She just has to be herself, but she needs to give them more attention.
And I think that as we get closer to the election, there is a ticket split phenomenon that's happening here right now.
But Trump is going to be there with her, Andrew.
He will help her.
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Okay, we got Montana.
Got to pick up Montana.
Ohio, Bernie Moreno.
Obviously, we talked about Arizona.
What is the most likely of the flip opportunities to actually flip in the Senate?
So Bernie Moreno is going to beat Sherrod Brown.
I mean, I would put him as more than a slight favorite at this point after looking at what happened in the primary.
Yeah, I think that's a big deal.
I mean, those were just, that was the weakest performance Sherrod Brown has ever put on.
And I think he would have been beaten in 2018 if Josh Man.
Well, I don't think.
I know we were pulling the race.
Josh Mandel was ahead between seven and nine points in 2018.
Unfortunately, he got out of that race.
God, could you imagine the votes that Sherrod Brown cast that would never have gotten cast if he did not.
Instead, they put the vanilla Jim Renachi in there.
And he's not that kind of Trumpy populist candidate like Bernie is.
He's a new MAGA era candidate, doing a great job reaching out to not only the white working class there, like the Ohio Valley, but non-white in Toledo.
Man, he crushed it in the primary, and Sherrod Brown is in deep trouble.
I'm so glad to hear that.
And we got behind Bernie early.
But by the way, they're coming after him.
I mean, the stories, they're attacking his Colombian heritage and his up from the bootstraps kind of story.
They're coming at they're trying to say he was on some adult friend finder or whatever, like, you know, basically a cheating website.
That got completely debunked.
So anyways, hey, so I want to switch our attention, Rich, to the blue wall.
Okay.
So, so, you know, we're still, we're still got our eyes on Nebraska second.
So don't anybody, don't anybody go anywhere on that.
We're still working on that.
So just, you know, put a bookmark in it.
But Rich, blue wall plus Nebraska second is their strategy.
It's their best strategy right now.
Yes.
Wisconsin, Michigan, PA.
Now, I was not long on PA.
I thought PA was like a disaster zone.
I'm hearing the Trump, Trump camp is feeling very good about the internals they're getting back from Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin's the dog.
What the heck?
You say Wisconsin is the hardest of the blue wall states to poll.
What's your if one of them's going to fall, which one's going to be?
In the last two election cycles, Wisconsin polled more Democratic, but voted more Republican.
And that's a Trumpy phenomenon.
In 2022, Ron Johnson was polling stronger than he performed because Republicans didn't advocate out the vote operation.
So Mandela Barnes put the, you know, they put their backs into it and they got very close.
But at the end of the day, go back and look at the polling from 2020, Wisconsin.
Wisconsin And Michigan Shifts 00:02:33
There were some Biden plus 17s, Biden plus 11s.
And meanwhile, even with the New York Times polling that just came out, Pennsylvania was the closest, but it turned out not to be.
It turned out to be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, then Michigan.
The way that the realignment is happening right now, Andrew, Michigan in our polling is polling stronger for Trump in many respects, but Wisconsin is tougher because unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, it's much more rural.
There's a lot different kind of constituency there.
There's no huge black population in an urban ghetto.
Of course, they have Milwaukee, but it's much more sparsely populated.
And then you have the Trumpy phenomena, which is what we call lumberjack country in the northwestern part of the state, where him and Johnson, too, by the way.
You get in the mid-40s in those counties, low to mid-40s, right?
Ashland, Bayfield, you know, up in the northwest.
And Republicans normally get clobbered.
30%, Mitt Romney got everyone, you know, Hagedorn got 30%.
So it's very tough to pull, and you need to keep your eye on geography, education, and ethnicity.
So I wouldn't be surprised.
But Pennsylvania, I agree with the Trump campaign.
I mean, he's already in the low 40s, mid-40s in Allegheny County.
And that's because of his strength among young non-white, particularly men.
Yeah.
I mean, it's real, Andrew.
It's real.
There's no doubt.
Wow.
So you think right now you're going to just handicapping it.
You're saying PA is the most likely of the blue wall to fall.
You know, history tells us that Wisconsin is, but that's actually not.
What I'm saying is right now, because of the non-white vote shift, it actually looks like Michigan is polling the strongest for him.
But if past this prologue, that's how these three states work.
And I would just point this out.
With the exception of Dekakis in 88, Wisconsin bucked the trend and voted for Dekakis over Herbert Walker Bush.
These states have voted for each other, voted with each other in each of the eight last presidential elections.
And then if you skip 88, it's actually 10 because of the two elections with Reagan.
So, I mean, normally some of them will be closer, Andrew, but one goes.
They all go typically.
Rich, I was supposed to mention your polling project.
So support the polling prize.
Can they find that at locals?
They can.
And also just go to Big Data Poll.
Check it out.
Okay.
Support the public polling project.
All the best, brother.
See you next time.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
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