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March 7, 2024 - The Charlie Kirk Show
35:01
Does Trump Really Need Nikki?
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Tough Spending Decisions 00:11:36
Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
Andrew Colvett filling in for Charlie Kirk.
Honored to be with you.
As always, today we have Kurt Schlichter.
He gives us a little, I would say, as a former DeSantis supporter, he's got some words for Nikki.
He's got some advice.
I think it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
Very, very good analysis from Kurt per usual.
And then we bring in the pollster extraordinaire, Rich Barris.
We ask the question: Does Trump even need Nikki?
We break down the polls.
What does it say about the Republican and the conservative movement?
Is it coalescing around Trump or not?
The data says a lot.
You're not going to want to miss this conversation with Rich.
It's fantastic.
So buckle up.
Here we go.
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Very excited to have my next guest on, fellow Californian living in exile here, Kurt Schlichter, senior columnist for townhall.com.
Kurt, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
Well, Andrew, well, thanks for having me.
You'll notice there's absolutely nothing in my house and a weird echo because my floor flooded.
So my entire first floor is completely empty.
So it's just you and me and my camera stand.
And you're somehow that feels symbolic to the state of the country right now, Kurt.
So I was looking at your Twitter thread here, and we were talking about this conundrum.
The emails flooded in.
Basically, the premise is that if anybody has the toughest job in America right now, is it Joe Biden or is it Speaker Johnson?
Very, very, I would say, apt criticisms of this minibus bill.
You're tweeting about it.
You know, you retweeted Mike Lee, who we love here.
This is how Republicans lose elections by acting like Democrats.
He was quote tweeting.
He was responding to Chip Roy, who's basically saying, and Thomas Matthews, who are saying that actually the budget outlays are higher under Speaker Johnson than they were under Nancy Pelosi.
Kurt, what is going on here?
Well, I had the chance to talk to Mike Lee earlier today.
I was out hosting for Salem Boeing Hugh Hewitt at O'Dark 30 California time.
So if I'm a little bleary, it's because I haven't got any sleep.
But no, he's fired up and he should be.
Look, are we going to stop spending money like drunken sailors or are we not?
And if the answer is that we're not, let's not call ourselves Republicans anymore.
Let's just call ourselves slower Democrats.
Because this is, I mean, this is ridiculous.
It is the time to make some tough decisions.
We don't have a huge amount of leverage, but you know, we have some leverage.
And I'd like to see us use it.
Yeah, okay.
So that's the issue here, right?
This dynamic, and I know this is true because I've spoken with a number of conservatives, conservatives in the House conference.
They are very well aware.
Now, most of these people ended up voting against this, right?
They were the, however, 80 plus no votes on this.
There was two Democrat no votes.
But most of the Republicans are going along with this additional spending.
So I completely agree.
We need better Republicans.
We absolutely do.
But he only does have a two-vote majority.
Now, this is the other thing.
These conservatives are very well aware of the polling.
Some agree with it, some disagree with it.
That says that if we shut down the government, that we are putting in serious jeopardy our ability to hold a majority in November when hopefully President Trump gets sworn into office and we can actually do some real damage here.
What's your take on that?
Is polling that shows that it would be damaging to holding the majority?
You think that's hogwash.
And what's your prescription for it?
Should we shut it down?
Should we try and get concessions on the border on spending and risk what Speaker Johnson's probably thinking about is losing control of the conservatives in the House and potentially losing majority in November?
Well, look, there are a lot of dumb things the Republicans have done lately that I'm not sure that refusing to spend a ton more money is one of them.
Yeah, I mean, look, we're in a tough place and it's a place of our own making.
We didn't get a bigger majority.
And when we have, you know, when we have a majority that's so razor-thin, we're not going to get everything we want.
But, you know, I think we should get some things.
And I don't think the American people are going to be absolutely upset if we're not spending a ton more money on, you know, frankly, nonsense.
A lot of what we're spending money on is just ridiculous stuff.
Yeah, it's going to, you know, look, we've got to get a more substantial majority in the House.
We have to get a majority in the Senate.
We have to get President Trump back in.
But even then, there's going to be another excuse about why we can't possibly cut spending.
Remember, there are Republicans, Democrats, and appropriators.
And the appropriators like appropriating.
The problem is we're spending a trillion dollars every hundred days.
Now, math is probably great, isn't it?
Yeah, I mean, math was my worth grade at the University of College.
But even I know that a trillion dollars every three months is unsustainable.
Yeah, no, it's and the other slap in the face here is the earmarks.
I mean, there was like 6,000 earmarks.
Over 100 of them had Diane Feinstein's name on them.
She's dead.
Why are these getting passed through?
This process is so broken.
And again, Rick Scott, who comes on this show often, said, again, we didn't get visibility on this minibus until basically a couple hours before we were supposed to vote to pass it.
I mean, the system is absolutely broken.
That is true.
But again, I come back to the fact, do you try and slow walk as much out of control insanity as you can between now and November to keep the, I don't know, some semblance of order in place and get that majority and then you execute on your plan?
Or do you burn it all down right now?
And I agree.
I don't understand why we can't get more concessions.
The fact that a Republican-controlled House is spending more than Nancy Pelosi, even with inflation, even with just built-in increases in budgetary outlays, I don't understand why we can't get more.
That has constantly been one of the most frustrating aspects of D.C. is why McConnell can't get anything done.
Why are we constantly getting outmaneuvered and out-negotiated by really mediocre Democrats?
One of the big problems.
Look in the Senate, the big problem is Mitch McConnell.
And Mitch McConnell used to be the master of the Senate and a, you know, really formidable guy.
And look, the fact is, his health is deteriorated.
He had a stroke.
He's not the Mitch McConnell of old.
And look, even the old Mitch McConnell is very frustrating sometimes, right?
But, you know, he could keep 49 senators together.
He could keep everybody from Susan Collins all the way to Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz all voting the same way.
And when you've got 49 votes, you have a say in the Senate.
He's not able to do that right now.
He's not able to leverage that power that he has.
And, you know, he's going to hold on for six or eight more months.
And that's, you know, frankly, that's not very, very helpful.
As for Mike Johnston, A, he's inexperienced.
We got rid of the most experienced guy, a guy, again, I'm no fan of Kevin McCarthy.
I think Kevin McCarthy was awful in a lot of ways, and I find him obnoxious.
On the other hand, he knew how to run the house.
Mike Johnston, who I like and respect, is still new at it, and he's got the problem of having a two-seat majority.
So, you know, until we get leadership that can build a coalition that stands firm and says, no, we're not doing this.
You know, I would love to see them draw the line and say, hey, we're having a spending freeze.
We're not going to raise spending.
You can explain that to the American people.
Hey, we're just not spending any more than we were last year.
Yeah, I like that idea.
You could explain that and fight that fight.
But right now, our leadership's just not capable of it, apparently.
Yeah, you know, part of the issue is the messaging.
I totally agree.
And you have to get, you have to distill the simplest, most easily to understand sort of messaging bites.
A spending freeze is very, very easy to understand.
We're not going to spend more, okay?
We're just simply not going to do it.
Yet, that's exactly what we see.
And we're running trillion-dollar deficits every hundred dollars, every hundred days.
I mean, you think about the entire history of America and how long it took us to get to $10 trillion in debt.
And all of a sudden, we're doing it $1 trillion every single hundred days, which is absolute insanity.
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Swing Voter Strategy 00:14:55
Kurt, I'm going to play Cut 83 and I'm going to get your instant reaction.
Play Cut 83.
But yeah, I signed the pledge and you signed the pledge saying that you're going to not take your ball and go home.
And so I honored the pledge and she's going to have to make a decision about whether she wants to or not.
But the idea that somehow circumstances have changed, I think we all knew what we were doing when we did that.
And you got to make a judgment about whether that's meaningful to you.
And so for me, I tell people, you know, if I say, I'm going to do something, I'm going to do it.
Kurt, your reaction.
Well, look, this is that's the kind of character why I was proud to support Ron DeSantis.
He said he was going to support the nominee, and he did.
I always said I was going to support the nominee, and I did.
And I, like Ron DeSantis, I am full-throated and unequivocally in support of President Trump because President Trump won the primaries fair and square.
And I don't understand why Nikki Haley doesn't do it.
Now, maybe she's waiting to do it on a bigger stage.
I mean, I could see if he was, you know, talking to the president and they were going to come out together and make a big announcement.
I can see that.
But I really consider it a character flaw if she fails to keep her word, both expressly because she said she would, and impliedly because she's allegedly a Republican.
Now, again, she hasn't refused to endorse him.
And we don't know what phone calls are going on behind the scenes, maybe arranging some joint campaign of hero, which I think would be great and a great show for unity.
So before we jump on Nikki Haley for that, and I'm always willing to trash Nikki Haley, but not for this, because I want to give her a fair chance to do the right thing.
But Governor DeSantis is absolutely right.
Look, we need people who do what they say.
One of the things I like best about President Trump is with him, it was promises made, promises kept.
And it's the same with Governor DeSantis.
He made a promise.
He kept the promise.
He's not backing out on it, weaseling around, trying to do something that's going to allow him to leverage himself in as an MSNBC commentator to replace John Peyton.
No, you say what you're going to do and then you do it.
And so I'm hoping Nikki Haley does the right thing.
Yeah, I mean, Kurt, but what bigger stage would there have been than the morning after national press conference?
You know, everybody's waiting on bated breath to see if she's going to drop out or not and say, yes, I am dropping out.
And yes, I am endorsing President Trump.
This tactic that she's using, yeah, maybe she's going to exert a little leverage to, you know, get her pound of flesh in the process or try and maybe angle for some sort of administration appointment, which I think would really infuriate Trump supporters, to be honest.
But these people talk about honor and integrity and honesty.
And then when the chips are down, you know, they have none.
And so I don't think she's doing herself any long-term favors by drawing this out longer than it should be drawn out.
Well, again, and I'm now in the weird position of seeming to defend Nikki Haley.
Let's not presume that the greatest showman in American politics maybe hasn't said, hey, hang on, Nikki.
You know, let's hold off and we'll do it together and it'll be great.
It'll be wonderful.
It'll be the biggest thing ever.
Everybody will love you to be terrific.
I don't know.
That absolutely could happen.
Again, Donald Trump is a huge showman and he might want to make a production out of it.
I don't know.
All right.
Let's give her a shot.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there.
We just about to lose you here, Kurt.
For our national audience, Steve Garvey, does he stand a chance, a snowball's chance in, you know what, in California to actually become a U.S. Senator?
Let's just say it's really unlikely.
Let's just say, Look, I'm going to proudly vote for Steve Garvey, and I think Steve Garvey is going to help a lot of congressmen by bringing people out because there aren't two Democrats near the top of the ticket.
But no, it's very unlikely.
California is not hit bottom like a drunk.
California has to wake up wearing someone else's pants over the county line with his shoes in the second.
So Steve Garvey, no chance.
Okay, so Steve, so we don't even want him on our show.
We don't want to like, you know, we don't want to taint him with partisanship.
You know, he's voted for Trump twice in the past, but he is doing his best to reach across the aisle.
He's a former Dodger, former MVP, former San Diego Padre.
You know, if anybody could get it done, I mean, California loves its celebrity.
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Rich, welcome to the Charlie Kirk show.
Sorry to keep you waiting.
Got to pay the bill.
That's okay, brother.
That's okay, brother.
I hear you.
You got to keep the lights on.
All right.
Let me set the table for you here.
Nikki Haley has refused to endorse thus far.
Let's give her a little maybe grace period.
I don't know.
I find it obnoxious.
Are her voters that are actually Republican, are they going to come home or not?
Rich Bears.
Yes, without a doubt.
Donald Trump's base right now is more consolidated than Joe Biden's.
I'm not the only one who finds that that is the case.
I mean, it's not even really up for debate.
People think that primary voters are indicative of general election voters.
That is not truly the case.
And in fact, I mean, Andrew, this year there was something novel that happened in the Republican primary.
It's been talked about in the past, but it didn't happen in the past the way we saw it happen this cycle.
And when you're talking about who is a Haley voter, it's made up of a bunch of people who don't want to be bothered with Joe Biden, but they are, in fact, Biden voters.
It's the resistance of the resistance that even includes those who are registered or toll exit pollsters they're independent or MPA.
And then the second and smaller part of that coalition is a group of Republicans who wanted a second choice.
But at the end of the day, the vast majority of them will come home to Donald Trump.
So I'm going to play Cut 73 here.
This is Steve Kornacki.
I think you've even said nice things about Steve before.
He's a good guy.
I get along with you.
Yeah, you're pretty picky when it comes to pollsters.
So when I hear him, I'm taking it pretty seriously.
Now, he's just reflecting on some outside polling.
So we'll take it with a grain of salt.
But let's play 73.
And, you know, is it possible for the, if you're Trump, are you looking at this going, we are picking off Biden voters in droves?
Check it out.
73.
So the numbers he's posting in general election polling against Biden right now are absolutely consistent with what he's got among Republicans in past elections.
So again, if you're looking at the primaries and saying, boy, there's all evidence here of Republicans turning on Trump, unwilling to vote for Trump in the fall, you're not seeing it in the general election polling in these Trump numbers.
And then you take a look at one final thing here.
This is from the New York Times Sienna poll.
They looked at it this way.
They asked respondents in their poll, who did you vote for in 2020?
And are you still with that candidate now?
97% of folks who said they voted for Trump in 2020 say in this poll they're still with Trump, but only 85% of Joe Biden's 2020 voters say they're with him.
If you're Joe Biden, how big of a five-alarm fire are you polling right now?
Yeah, big.
I mean, this is a problem.
And by the way, our numbers are very similar to that.
I was talking to Steve about his poll for NBC that came out a couple of weeks ago.
That's the same situation they were seeing.
I mean, everyone maybe got a little, the numbers vary a little bit, Andrew, but for the most part, we had Joe Biden at about 80%, a little bit over 80% of the 2020 vote that he got.
Some of it goes to someone else, but a huge chunk of it goes to Donald Trump.
And Donald Trump has almost unified support.
The New York Times, the poll he was just going over, it was a half a percent of Trump vote who said they would go to Biden.
Ours is usually a little bit bigger than that, but still statistically insignificant.
It's like 1.3, 1.5.
Why is that such a big deal?
Why is it a big, you know, you better pull that alarm?
Because those are really the swing vote.
These are people who are truly swing voters and persuadable people.
You know, they're, you know, I mean, there's, we make a huge deal over the swing vote, the independent vote.
They're two different things.
Persuadable voters in this country are actually very small.
That's about it.
What you're just looking at with Steve Pernanke right there.
But the reason why that's big is because Joe Biden got, let's, you know, I mean, the official number here, Andrew, Joe Biden got 81 million votes.
If 10% of them are going to Donald Trump, that's 8.1 million.
If a half a percent of Donald Trump's votes are going to Joe Biden, it's about 350,000.
So it's a little over an 8 million vote swing nationally that Joe Biden is losing.
Ours is usually in the neighborhood of 6.5 million when we're polling.
That's what we estimate.
Time's a little bit bigger.
Either way, it's a very consistent finding across all different pollsters.
New York Times, Steve himself, his poll at NBC, and our poll at Big Data Paul.
Interesting.
So put it in historical terms then for me, Rich.
You know, I think this is something Charlie talks about a lot when he games out, if you're a Democrat, how you were attacking 2024.
You were depending on Ron DeSantis having a good showing.
You were depending on the Republican challengers slowing him down, Donald Trump, even maybe surpassing him and Ron DeSantis was going to be the nominee.
None of that happened.
So put it in historical terms.
I think Laura Ingram said that this is the greatest comeback story in American political history with Donald Trump, right?
January 2023, he was looking real vulnerable.
Now he's consolidated the party almost completely.
Historical terms, how impressive is what Donald Trump has pulled off in this primary?
We've never seen anything like this before.
I mean, Andrew, this is a completely ahistoric event.
We just, and by the way, he did it rolling through primary after primary, setting record after record, even in states where he was weak.
New Hampshire, right?
Yeah, Governor Sununu endorsing Nikki Haley, which by the way, you're right, the Democrats love.
The Biden White House just said it last week.
We hope Nikki stays in until after Super Tuesday.
But even in states where they tried to pull this off, it's amazing.
They get all these Democrats to come out and vote, all these behavioral Democrats to come out and vote.
Any other candidate would have succumbed to that, Andrew.
There would not have been enough voters to be able to fight back that coalition in New Hampshire, but he did it and he set a record.
He got the most votes of any candidate, Republican or Democrat, in the state of New Hampshire for a primary.
More than 12% of the state's entire population voted for Donald Trump in a primary.
We don't see numbers like this.
Iowa, he got the most votes.
He won by the biggest margin.
It was the quickest call ever.
South Carolina, record broken.
I mean, we've been going through these states one after the other and at least one record in each of these states.
It's insane.
It's insane.
It's totally, and that's without the comeback, but it just tells you the level of dominance he's had.
Yeah, well, I mean, so I have so many questions for you, Rich.
What, if you had to pinpoint, was it the legal, was it the lawfare assault on Trump that helped consolidate it?
Was it just a poor showing from DeSantis?
What made this possible?
I really do think, like all things in politics, it's never just one thing.
The media likes to try to dumb that down.
But it's not just the indictments.
It's how, you know, going back to that point in time, it's how Ron DeSantis handled those indictments.
And then it also came on the heels.
Remember, back then, Tucker Carlson's still on the air on Fox News.
We've been tracking the primary since the beginning, and we saw it in real time.
When he got into trouble with Tucker Carlson over the flip-flop with Ukraine, he gave a very MAGA response first, and then the donors, you know, Ken Griffin called and, you know, complained in his ear and he and he flip-flopped.
That was when I will say, I'll equate it to this.
That's when Republican voters kind of like raised their eyebrow.
Like, wait a minute, maybe this guy isn't MAGA.
Maybe he's not the Trump.
Maybe he's not, you know, all of the good of MAGA without the Trump, the grassness of Trump.
And then a series of events that happened after just really reinforced to Republican voters why they picked Trump to begin with in 2016, why they went with him to begin with, and then why they stuck with him through his presidency.
And, you know, I would put Nikki Haley in a different category, as Ron DeSantis.
I really would.
I'd put her in a totally different category.
She never really had a prayer.
The only thing that she was in this primary to do was to sabotage.
I mean, she was running a sabotage campaign.
I mean, that's it.
Or she was looking for leverage to extract her pounding cash in a future Trumpet, yeah, future Trump administration.
I mean, I, but if you look at what Steve Cornacki just broke down and what you've articulated to, I don't think she has any power.
Third Party Options 00:07:56
She has no leverage.
She does.
I think she was trying to run this election out to say, hey, look at my movement that I've built.
You know, I got a quarter of the base here with me.
You better give me what I want.
I'm looking at Steve Cornaki's number and saying, they're coming home anyways.
I don't need it.
So I just, I don't, I can't figure out her calculus of what she's trying to play at here by extending this time of not endorsing Trump unless she's going to lie to us again and she's going to go third party.
I mean, I have, I can't figure out what her play is here.
I put nothing past Nikki Haley.
She is like the characterization of an ambitious politician who breaks her word no matter what, does self-serving, makes makes decisions that are self-serving.
I mean, so I would put nothing past her, but really what you just said is so important.
And I've been trying to get this point across for weeks and weeks and weeks.
They will try to come and say, look, my coalition, you'll need me.
He doesn't need Nikki Haley at all.
All right.
Anyone who's pretending as if her primary performance was this referendum against Trump, that there's a chunk of Republican voters who don't like him and won't come home is either incompetent.
They don't understand the numbers.
They're just not smart enough to understand what happened this cycle, or they're liars.
And they're also trying to get some pound of flesh.
He doesn't need her whatsoever, Andrew.
He doesn't.
And the numbers bear it out.
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Rich, real quick on this.
Do you think Nikki thinks she's actually got a shot at VP?
Because she doesn't.
Is that the play?
Like, I was just thinking.
I really do.
I mean, listening to, just listening to her speech alone.
And I do think that they were trying, they being the, you know, the establishment, the administrative state, the people, the political class that can't stand Donald Trump, can't stand you out there.
If you're listening, they hate your guts too.
They're trying to keep their hooks in somehow.
They never give up.
And when they cannot beat you, they will try to join you.
This is a very common tactic.
You know, they did it to the Tea Party for those of us old enough to remember.
They started running people like Adam Kinzinger as a Tea Party guy.
Indiki Haley herself was a Tea Party embed.
And it turned out it was total, it was a total hoax, total frauds, but they do this.
And I think if you're them, Andrew, what other play do you have?
You know what we're saying is true.
Those voters are not really your voters.
We've been running exit poll interviews on Inside the Numbers on our show for weeks and weeks and weeks.
We are showing people firsthand.
These are not Republicans who are angry with Donald Trump or truly persuadable independents who are angry and won't vote for Donald Trump.
These are Biden voters doing what Rush Limbaugh called Operation Chaos.
They know that's true.
So if you have their knowledge, what else do you do, brother?
What's your play?
All right.
So, Rich, I got to ask you about the uncommitted voters phenomenon, Minnesota, Hawaii, Michigan.
What's going on here?
Are they going to come home to the Democrat Party or are they going to go third party?
And I have one follow-up question.
So just race against the clock here.
Are they going to come home to Biden?
Are they going third party?
I got to tell you, I think depending on state, a lot of them, we'll see who is a third party option.
But if they're not, if it's like RFK, if they're too pro-Israel or something like that, they will not come home.
I mean, they will not go third party.
They probably, a lot of them probably will stay home.
And the question he has, what have is whether Democrats will go out and harvest those votes.
But this is a serious problem.
It is.
Right.
Yeah.
Okay.
So next question.
We talk about black Hispanic voters, right?
We have, you know, I think this is New York Times, Sienna, I believe, but don't quote me on that.
46% Trump leads outright with Hispanics, 46 to 40.
And now it's saying he's got 23% of the black vote.
Now, it's mostly black men.
And they're saying it's the economy, stupid.
It's basically, you know, they're saying that they're poorer under Bidenomics.
Is this the great white whale that's never going to fully materialize because the Democrats are just too good at harvesting these votes and getting out low prop?
They're going to close that gap.
Or is this something you're seeing that's real?
Is it real?
Yeah, it's real.
There's no doubt about it.
How much Republicans and Trump can get it to materialize?
Part of that will be get out the vote.
I have a good friend, African-American, who's been a Republican for years.
He hates it when he hears, you know, African Americans are 90, 95% Democrat because he lives in the community.
He knows.
I know his family.
They're not.
What Democrats are good at doing is getting out their vote.
The African-American and even Hispanic who is more Trumpy is a less likely voter.
It's really, there's a big part of the equation that that is impacting.
Republicans have to go get them.
And I'll tell you what, Andrew, we've already seen evidence of African-American votes for Trump in South Carolina, in Michigan.
I think we saw it in the South on Super Tuesday.
It's there.
I mean, we can see, is it huge?
No.
So when 10% is non-white in a Republican primary, that's a big deal.
It's a big deal.
So national polls have Trump up anywhere between like 3% to 6%, 7%.
That means he's winning the popular vote, which Republicans haven't done since what, 2004, Bush's reelection.
So if you're looking at that, let's say an average of 4% up, once you factor in Democrats' superior get out the vote, funding mechanisms, projects, campaigns, what does that shrink to?
4% on average.
What does that shrink to?
That's why the model we just did, you know, showing people if it's a popular vote lead of this much, what does that mean for the Battleground States?
That's why we did a Trump roughly plus two, because Democrats are very good at getting their votes, you know, counted, Andrew.
And Republicans, as you know, well, full aware.
I mean, there are efforts, but it's up in the air.
Trump is a turnout machine.
Yeah.
That's right.
I mean, we're just getting started.
At turning point action, I mean, yeah, we're going to have an impact now, but you give us two, three cycles.
This thing is going to get up and running and we're going to be a machine.
We're not saying we've got enough to get this done.
We're saying we got to start chipping away at this, like, you know, this arms race now.
We have to start making inroads now, or we're just, we're never going to, we're never going to win again.
I mean, it's that clear.
And instead of criticizing, people can come and help, you know?
Yeah, I got it.
We got to hit.
We got to go.
But Rich, you're the best, man.
Thank you for making the time today.
I appreciate it.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
If you love this show as much as I do, well, maybe, maybe even more.
Maybe you love it more than I do, which is saying something.
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