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Oct. 12, 2023 - The Charlie Kirk Show
33:18
The Crime of "Noticing" with Steve Sailer
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Welcome Steve Salier 00:02:24
Hey everybody, Steve Salier joins us today.
Well-respected intellectual who has committed the crime of noticing.
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Very special guest this hour.
It's going to be informative and deep.
Joining us now is Steve Salier, who I find to be incredibly interesting and one of the most talented noticers in the country.
Steve, welcome to the program.
You know, we like to say on the show that people committed the crime of noticing.
You obviously started to, you popularized that, meaning using their brains and using pattern recognition.
You might be one of the most talented noticers on the planet.
What are some of the things that you noticed long before the national media did, and how have you been treated as a result?
Yeah, I mean, my basic approach is to say that there isn't some vast dichotomy between the science and what you can notice every day with your lying eyes, the kind of patterns that are apparent in daily life.
Crime Patterns and COVID 00:09:02
So if you see a stereotype in regular life, yeah, it probably shows up in the social science data from the federal government and academics, and vice versa.
If there's some sort of pattern going on nationwide that is showing up in the FBI crime statistics or the Center for Disease Control statistics for deaths, then you'll probably notice it on your own street.
So, for example, May 25th, 2020, George Floyd dies.
This begins the second Black Lives Matter era.
Entire establishment of the United States decides that this is the time for the racial reckoning.
Among so many other things we must do, we must have the police do less policing of African Americans.
They're suffering from too much law and order.
All right.
Now, we'd already done that once on a smaller scale during what was called the Ferguson effect.
In August of 2014, in the St. Louis area, Black Lives Matter merged after the shooting by the cop of Michael Brown, the gentle giant, during his crime rampage.
This set off a whole series of scandals across the country about too much policing of blacks.
Well, what happened then?
Well, one thing that happened back in the Ferguson effect was that murders went up, especially murders of blacks.
From the year 2014 to the year 2016, African Americans died 27% more by homicide, according to the CDC.
And something that people didn't notice at all was they also died 24% more in motor vehicle accidents, in car crashes.
Now, what's going on?
Well, basically, less policing, just like the establishment asked for in the name of Black Lives Matter.
You end up killing off about a quarter more blacks in those years because you're policing them less.
If you see somebody in St. Louis driving badly, should you pull them over?
Should you search them for an illegal handgun?
And no, you know, the New York Times will be on our case.
So cops pulled back.
They retreated to the donut shop.
And the death rate for blacks went up about 25% over those two years.
Heck of a job, Black Lives Matter.
All right.
Hit the 2020 during the mania of 2020.
The establishment decides we're going to do it all over again.
We're going to, on just a massive scale, national right away.
And what happens between 2019 and 2021?
Well, blacks die 44% more by homicide, almost all at the hands of other blacks.
And they managed to get themselves killed 39% more in traffic fatalities.
Great job, Black Lives Matter.
Now, these patterns are huge.
They're historic.
Stuff like murder rates and car crash rates normally don't change much from year to year.
They're all rather personal decisions.
But we've managed our cultural, national, political, corporate leadership has managed to do to get a whole lot more blacks killed.
I estimate in the name of saving black lives.
I estimate that in 2021, about 10,000 more blacks died annually due to car crashes and murders than if the trends seen back before Ferguson, before the Ferguson effect, before the Floyd effect, before Black Lives Matter had carried on.
That's 10,000 a year.
By this point, you know, it's many times the total number of African Americans who were lynched in American history, the incremental numbers that have been getting killed during the Black Lives Matter era.
It's a complete fiasco, and it's mostly just buried in the press.
If they need to mention that one thing or the other has gone up, they say it has, it's due to COVID.
Never explain why it's due to COVID.
It just is.
And let's just not go into this huge effect that's been going on that's been unleashing chaos across America and that people in our elites promoted so heavily for about a year and a half in this decade.
Now they're backing off.
They're trying to get, they're embarrassed by it.
They just want it to be memory hold at this point.
But that's the kind of thing I notice and I bring up a lot.
We as human beings naturally notice things, pattern recognition.
I'll give you one that is non-controversial.
During COVID, the people that I saw that were dying were fat.
I didn't need a study to tell me that.
Just in my local life, in my local circle, people that were really struggling with COVID were people that were overweight.
And it turns out that once our health agencies were forced to put out accurate data, the macro and the micro connected, right?
So it turned out that the pattern recognition that I was seeing in my neighborhood was also confirmed with a macro trend.
We're naturally wired to see that.
Do you have a thought on that, Steve, before I get to the deeper question?
But I want to give you a chance to interject.
Yeah.
For example, here's an obscure finding that I made regarding that, which was I was trying to figure out how much human capital we're losing from COVID.
If you go back to the Spanish flu of 1918, it struck young people.
It left a whole bunch of widows and children.
It killed off like national leaders, just dropped dead in office.
It was extremely disruptive.
And so the question is, how many people still in the prime of their years at the top of their careers were being killed by COVID?
And when I went through lists of prominent people who died, most of them, you know, they were famous 20 years ago, 30 years ago.
Oh, come.
Why aren't they celebrities anymore?
Why is the striking dead the celebrities of America?
Well, it's hard to be fat in a celebrity.
I mean, one area that did get hit pretty hard was like right-wing radio talk show hosts.
That's one of those jobs you don't have to be on camera.
No, and I could say this, that in my profession, the waistline is far above the national average.
It takes, you think about it, we're constantly sitting on our tail, you know, talking.
It doesn't exactly require movement.
And, you know, the old expression, Steve, is, and I have a face for radio.
You don't have to be Leonardo DiCaprio to be a right-wing radio host.
You just have to be interesting to the ear.
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Ignoring Reality for Ideology 00:08:47
So, Steve, what I'm getting at, and I'm struggling to word it.
It's been a very long month this week, is walk us through what it takes for a person to ignore the noticing and to embrace delusional ideology.
Because in some ways, that could capture the academic elite.
They refuse to notice and they live in a created synthetic world that is inconsistent with what is actually happening.
Please, your response, walk us through that, Steve Sailor.
Yeah, I mean, my finding is the true academic elite, researchers out on the cutting edge of findings in the human sciences, are really pretty good at discovering stuff, stuff that ties into daily life.
I'll give you a complicated anecdote, but way back in MBA school, in the early 80s, I was on a team in a class with a fellow who was extremely bright, extremely ambitious.
His goal was to make his fortune in outer space, which I said, well, yeah, I've read all those Robert Heinlein novels too.
That sounds great.
But I didn't actually believe he was going to be able to do it.
But he was also the most arrogant man in the entire program, which for a business school might be saying a lot.
All right.
I lost track of him after that.
He wasn't the most pleasant personality, but he could get things done, that's for sure.
Until about 2013, I'm reading the Washington Post an article about America's highest paid female CEO, which turns out to be this guy I'd gotten to know real well back in MBA school.
He now had decided he's a woman.
He's made his first fortune in satellite radio, which I realized I'd been sending him a check, $25 per month for years.
And then he made his second fortune.
And this is amazing when one of the many children he's fathered came down with some rare disease and he dropped what he was doing in outer space, studied the medical textbooks, and invented a cure from which he went on to make a second fortune.
So this is, he's a hero out of old-time 1950s science fiction, but he's also decided he's a woman.
And all right, so what I learned was that that's not a real uncommon pattern among the people, the X-Men, who announced that, well, I was always a girl on the inside.
I was just, I was assigned the wrong gender at birth.
I've always been super feminine on the inside.
If you take the ones who achieved prominence before they had this revelation and decided to transition, most of them are not at all feminine in any aspect.
They tend to be highly masculine, highly arrogant.
IIQ, one study found average IQ in the 120s, not real good people persons, kind of extremely high-functioning Asperger-y types, very self-motivated.
And so if you go around looking at celebrities who have decided that they're really women, oh, like the father of the newswoman Katie Tour, Bob Tour, who as chopper Bob became the most famous TV helicopter pilot in the country, covering OJ and the white Bronco and stuff like that.
Katie has published a memoir of her life with her father, who was a complete jerk.
And, you know, maybe, hopefully, gastration has made him a little less violent for the people in his life, but yeah, it still seems like he's not really calmed down that much.
You can go through a long list, these people, and they don't tend to be feminine.
They don't tend to be on the left.
They're libertarian economists.
They're ex-Navy SEALs.
They're all over the place.
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Steve, sorry to cut you off.
Please finish your thought there.
The question is: what's the real story about all of these prominent transgender X-Men, like Bruce Jenner, for example, who have transitioned into still highly masculine, supposedly lesbian women?
Did they always assign the wrong gender at birth?
Nah.
This question was studied in depth about 30 years ago by a University of Toronto psychologist named Ray Blanchard.
And from hundreds of case studies, he discovered a common pattern.
This is a sex fetish.
It's basically something that happens to a certain number of boys when they get to puberty, and they start to dress up in their mother's lingerie and masturbate in front of the mirror, imagining themselves as the perfect woman, the idol of their sex drives.
Now, it's crazy, but here's the thing: it's out there, it's common.
Once you hear about this pattern, this sex fetish called autogynophilia, you'll see it all the time in these famous X-Men.
But the X-Men are also really good at getting the media to censor it.
In the history of the New York Times, the word autogynophilia has been published exactly twice since 1851.
Why?
The transgenders, the X-Men, they are extremely good and ruthless at crushing anybody who brings out the scientific truth about them.
I call them the SEAL Team Six of Cancel Culture.
So, now the big problem with this is there's all these teenage girls who are going through puberty.
They're feeling moody as adolescent girls do.
They feel like maybe they're not as pretty as the popular girls in the class.
And then they hear all this talk about gender assignment at birth going wrong and transitioning.
And suddenly they decide, yes, that's the cure for their moodiness.
They're actually boys.
They should have their breasts chopped off.
So we have this disaster over the last 10 years of rapid onset gender dysphoria among normal girls just going through adolescent moodiness, and it's ruining lives.
Media Covering Up Sex Fetish 00:13:03
And nobody's telling them that all these famous guys who claim now to be women tend to be motivated by a rather comic sex fetish.
The media is covering it up completely, and it's just causing carnage, literally, in the lives of thousands of pretty normal girls who'd probably grow out of it in a few years.
So things like that happen when we don't have freedom to discuss what we see with our own lying eyes and what the human sciences are discovering.
So, yeah, and the human sciences basically should be in the business of noticing and then sharing what they've noticed.
I know that's an awful simplification to distill a huge body of work.
And your Twitter followers have more than doubled since Musk bought the site.
Do you think that the American population is more and more interested in the truth regardless of where it might lead?
And I'll give you an example, Steve.
I go on a campus and they're screaming at me about white supremacy.
And I say, do you realize that about 60%, about 57 to 60% dependent on the year, of all murders are done by 3% of the population, young black men, 60%.
And they say, I'm a racist.
And I say, no, I'm a noticer.
And it takes some courage to say that, not for me, but just in regular society.
Do you feel as if that regular Americans are more and more willing to embrace the data, the facts, reality, even if it might mean they might be called bad names?
Perhaps.
I've been doing this a long time, going back about 30 years.
And have things changed?
Generally, there's less freedom to state the bleeding obvious.
For example, in this decade, the crucial facts you needed to know to have an intelligent opinion on the, quote, racial reckoning brought about by George Floyd and the subsequent national nervous breakdown is, yeah, blacks tend to commit murder about 10 times as often per capita as whites.
And yeah, it's not just all explained by poverty and so forth.
The Harvard economist Rod Chetty did this massive study and discovered that, yeah, blacks who were raised in families with the same income as whites tend to be imprisoned when they're about 30 years old, three to 10 times as much as whites from exactly the same income level as filled in on their taxes.
Then there's lots of other things involving test scores.
We have this overwhelming demand to promote blacks to higher positions.
But if you look at the numbers, nobody knows where All these highly talented but unemployed blacks are.
So these have all been kind of a disaster for us in the 20s.
But are we supposed to talk about that?
To come out and say it that bluntly as I say it, to use Occam's razor to explain what's really going on about the major issues, that's not that popular.
You know, if I'm up over 100,000 followers on Twitter, that's mostly because until Elon Musk came along and Twitter had some sort of relationship with me, like, yeah, we're not going to let Sailor thrive, but we kind of like him and he does tell the truth.
So we're not going to get rid of him, but we'll just hold him back.
Musk's intervention could be a big deal.
We'll see.
But there is just a whole lot of momentum to get even more censorious, to cancel more people, to keep more facts out of the papers.
So we'll see.
So, Steve, how have you personally and professionally been treated the more that you have published this data?
I think this is important for our audience to realize, because in a time long gone, you were a National Review columnist, you know, and high society.
Do you believe that your profession has been more difficult or more challenging because of your discoveries and because of how blunt you present the data that you compile?
Yeah, I mean, I had a decision to make a long time ago in the 1990s, was, was I going to spend a lot of mental effort trying to soft soap what I was finding, or could I just devote that mental energy to finding more fascinating facts about how the world works, to notice ever more patterns?
And my brain really likes finding patterns and trying to come up with an elegant way to obfuscate the implications and make them sound so that only a few people will figure out what I'm talking about.
Yeah, that just didn't appeal to me.
Now, is that a good career move?
Probably not.
I probably should have developed these soft soap skills.
But that's just not who I am.
As David Foster Wallace said, in the end, you turn out to be who you are.
So I've had a fulfilling career.
I've accomplished a lot, a lot more than I ever expected to.
Did it make me as much money as it could have?
Nah, it's not, but there's more things than money.
Yes, there are.
There's your integrity.
So, Steve, what do you think is one of the most important patterns that is currently not in the mainstream zeitgeist in America that you find that is so glaring, civilizational defining, if you will, that people are not talking about or ignoring it?
I think I'm going to come back to the idea that, as I pointed out before, that when Black Lives Matter was decided that they were the moral arbiters of America, what they immediately got done was getting a whole lot of blacks killed.
I'm counting about 18,000 more blacks have died by homicide and car crash in the 2020s than if the late 2010s patterns had carried on.
18,000 more is just a huge number.
So here we are at the central obsession of domestic policy in recent years.
And it was a complete bloody catastrophe with 18,000 extra dead bodies.
And nobody really wants to talk about it or notice it.
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We have a lot of younger listeners that are just getting into conservatism.
What books, literature, writers, sources do you recommend after many decades of doing this?
And I don't even use the words conservative, just living in reality.
Do you recommend that young people take seriously, that they study to try to become informed and to have a deeper understanding of the world?
I mean, my basic intellectual heritage goes back about 50 years to what was kind of like this forgotten era that I call first wave domestic neoconservatism,
which at that point didn't obsess that much over foreign policy, but tended to be founded by social scientists like Daniel Patrick Moynihan, James Q. Wilson, Andrew Greeley.
It took a very realistic dive into what's going on in America in the late 1960s.
So I think I'm still a descendant of that.
My idol, who's a direct line descendant of those great thinkers, is Charles Murray.
And I'd say, for example, on the topics we've been talking about, Charles's recent book, Two Truths Facing Reality About Crime and Intelligence in the United States, that came out a couple of years ago.
It's a short one, about 125 pages.
And it was written directly in response to the national craziness over the George Floyd racial reckoning.
And it lays out the facts and it kind of disappeared without making a ripple in the national pond because nobody in 2021 wanted to hear about that.
But it'll get you off to a good start.
That is excellent.
So, yeah, and Steve, you know, in closing here, what piece of work would you like our audience to be aware of that you're currently working on that is going to be published or that has been published that you want to make sure our audience can support or can get behind?
Well, I've got a couple of things going on.
One's an article on my native San Fernando Valley in, it's coming up in American Conservative magazine.
Looks into the question nobody's looked into before is like the San Fernando Valley, home to Lockheed, to a whole bunch of movie studios, was kind of the, we kind of won the Cold War through the hard power and the soft power of the United States.
The Valley nowadays is filling up with ex-Soviets, which kind of raises this interesting question.
Did we really win the Cold War?
No, that's that, you know what, Steve?
I hate to interject.
We might have defeated the instrument that the ideology was hosted in, but we actually, I think, ingested the virus that we were once fighting.
We're more like the Soviet Union than they were in the later stages.
Final thoughts, Steve?
We're running out of time.
Yeah, the other thing is I've got an anthology book coming out called Noticing in a Very Expensive, Luxury, First Hardback Edition This Year, a Reasonably Priced Paperback Next Year.
It's called Noticing the Essential Steve Saylor, 1973 to 2023.
You'll like it.
Check it out.
Steve, thank you so much for your time.
And we're going to keep on noticing.
You have to come back once your book is published.
Okay.
Thanks very much.
Very much.
Looking forward to it.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening and God bless.
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