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Aug. 31, 2023 - The Charlie Kirk Show
30:03
Trump in a Landslide? The Trend is Our Friend with Mike Davis
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Time Text
New Polls Show Trump Tied 00:15:15
Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
This is Andrew Colvett, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show, filling in for the one and only Charlie Kirk, who is taking a much deserved and much needed mandated from the team break.
He'll be back on Tuesday after the long weekend, but never fear, we're here.
We're talking about the new polling from McLaughlin that has Trump up big.
Now, is it an outlier or is the trend suggesting that this is actually close to the truth?
We take a snapshot.
We also break down battleground states and what is happening across multiple different polls.
Very important discussion.
Then we bring in Mike Davis from the Article 3 project.
He debunks point by point, very, very meticulously.
I was very impressed by his points he made in this interview.
You guys aren't going to want to miss it about the 14th Amendment in this move to take Trump off the ballot.
Is it dead in the water constitutionally?
Mike has some great points there.
You're not going to want to miss it.
Buckle up.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie.
He's an incredible guy.
His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
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Newsmax has a poll up.
Well, it's actually McLaughlin, but the Newsmax is the headline.
McLaughlin poll, Trump beats Biden in electoral landslide.
After George's indictment of Donald Trump, our new national poll shows he is not only beating Biden, but he would defeat the current president in an electoral landslide.
The McLaughlin National Survey finds Trump leads Biden 47 to 43, up two points this month alone.
But wait, there's more.
This poll is really something else.
So here's what's really interesting about this.
Now, I brought this up with producer Blake, and he is, for those of you who know him or have seen him on this show, he's a contrarian.
And I said, Blake, this poll is probably completely garbage.
And yeah, he had some critiques of it, but he was like, actually, you know, the national polls lately have been looking really solid for Trump.
Now, I'm not saying this isn't an outlier, but this is one of the few indications that we have post-Georgia indictment, post-mugshot that went mega viral, post-Trump-Tucker interview that broke the internet.
That this is one of the few indications that we have of a national level.
But what's more, and perhaps what's most important, is the key battleground states and how those are broken down in this poll.
So if you just look at key battleground states, we're talking Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia.
Trump is leading.
Get this.
And I think this is where McLaughlin and Newsmax get this headline of this electoral landslide, which I want to caution you on.
We always want to play like we're 10 points down, always, always full stop.
They own the institutions, they own the media, they own the universities, they own Hollywood.
And frankly, Joe Biden is using the federal government as a get-out-the-vote campaign apparatus.
Okay, so we're up against tremendous institutionalized power here that the Democrats have amassed and that we need to destroy.
But nevertheless, key battleground states in this poll.
Trump leads Biden by a whopping 49 to 41%.
49 to 41%.
That means it's an electoral landslide.
Now, some of you will remember that Turning Point Action.
So it's the C4 arm of TPUSA.
Charlie started.
Tyler Boyer, who comes on the show a lot, is the COO, doing a phenomenal job running that, raising funds to chase votes all across the country.
Some of you might remember our three key states are Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona.
We think that the entire election pivots on those.
Now, so I have some good news and I have some bad news.
First is a fairly telling sign, right?
Georgia, Trump is still the favorite in Georgia.
And I think we have a graphic for that.
Trump is still a favorite in Georgia by a mile in the primary in Georgia, despite the Fulton County indictment for which he just pled not guilty this morning.
So this is, and this is from the AGC, the Atlanta Journal Constitution of the University of Georgia.
For those who don't know, the AGJC is a complete communist rag.
We're not going to get any favorable polling.
They're not going to be tilting it in our favor.
Wisconsin is the dog right now.
Not going to lie.
But one caveat to that, I will say, is that Wisconsin has not been polled recently.
All right.
So it looks like the last poll we have of Wisconsin was June 14th through the 28th from Prime Group.
And Biden was leading Trump 53 to 47.
Marquette University, June 8th through the 13th.
Biden was leading 49 to 47.
So we don't really know.
We don't really know how Wisconsin is going to go, but turning point action, we've already pledged $5 million to the state of Wisconsin and chasing ballots.
But we can see signs of this shift in those battleground states and elsewhere.
Yeah, okay.
So getting a piece of info here.
The most recent Georgia poll from a Democrat group called Citizens to Save Our Republic has Trump up four over Biden.
That's in Georgia.
And by the way, Biden is beating DeSantis 49 to 47 in that same poll.
So taken collectively, and here's Arizona.
We have some newer numbers from Arizona.
Maybe I can get these graphics for you guys.
The newest Arizona poll is very encouraging.
Emerson College has Trump up one over Biden.
That's August 2 through the 4th.
And then we also have public opinion strategies from July 22nd to the 24th.
Trump tied with Biden in Arizona.
So it looks, Georgia's looking strong.
Arizona's looking strong.
We don't have new polling from Wisconsin, but we're seeing in the landscape that the Trump mugshot, the indictment in Fulton County, this parallel weaponization of the DOJ is having a profound impact on the psyche of the country.
And we are seeing that in polls.
And this McLaughlin poll is frankly incredible.
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In this McLaughlin poll, I got to be honest, Charlie has a policy.
We don't fixate on polls.
I totally endorse that, but we do fixate on trends.
Okay, we do fixate on trends.
Okay.
Recent Arizona poll, let's put that back up: 150.
Emerson College, Trump 42, Biden 41.
Emerson College, it's the same.
I don't even know what the difference is there between those two polls, between those two top polls.
But then we look at public opinion strategies.
Trump tied with Biden, and that's from July 22nd to 24.
So we see a slight increase in his support there.
Let's go to 150.
We don't even have to just stay fixated on the turning point action core three, which again is Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona.
Let's expand the map.
Let's go to Michigan right here.
We have Trump basically tied in Michigan.
Now, Michigan's going to be a slog, right?
Emerson College, however, August 1st to 2nd has Trump up slightly, 43 to 41, and essentially tied in the epic MRA poll.
Okay, let's go to Michigan.
Let's go.
Actually, that was Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That's the one I want.
Pennsylvania.
Let's go to Pennsylvania, which I think is 150, I believe.
Pennsylvania.
Franklin and Marshall College essentially tied August 9th through the 20th, 4240.
Now, Biden's up two in that poll, but the prime group had them tied.
And back from June 22nd to 22nd, the Quinnipiak University, very good poller, had Trump up one.
All right.
So the trend is our friend, folks.
The trend is our friend.
You would think conventional wisdom, and perhaps this is what led the Democrats to pursue this policy, which is absolutely coordinated, a vast left-wing conspiracy to indict the president.
We know it's coordinated.
We see it at the state AG level with these alternate electors in Michigan and Georgia.
We've heard rumors they're going to go after him in Arizona and other states.
We know it's coordinated.
We had that clip from Newt Gingrich on this show talking about how DC called Fannie Willis, rushed her to indict Trump to cover up for the Weiss screw-up.
And you would think that all of this, and maybe this is the conventional wisdom driving the Democrats, that Biden would be peaking and Trump would be collapsing.
He's indicted four times.
You know, he hasn't even had a chance to defend himself in court.
All we're seeing is the negative news coverage, the mainstream news media covering these indictments wall to wall.
They're not covering Joe Biden's corruption at all.
And yet, Trump in the trends is surging.
Now, I want to go back to this McLaughlin poll.
One detail that I want to call out.
So, this is what's interesting about the poll.
This is directly from that Newsmax article.
Even more remarkable with our voter model for this poll, we assigned four more points of Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters.
Four more points.
So we've got a four-point edge.
This means looking to 2024, there has been an eight-point turnaround in favor of Trump from the 2020 election.
Biden voters, independents are switching to Trump.
So, this again is a first in the nation.
Reason this is noteworthy is simply because this is our newest poll post indictment post Fulton County post.
All you know the 18 co-conspirators getting indicted.
This is a tremendous sign.
So what will this even look like?
Think about this.
All this news is is very current, these indictments it's weighing down Trump's.
You would think it would be weighing down Trump's, but it's not here's.
So the question is, what will happen next year when the news of these criminal cases has become stale?
The economy might be weakening again.
Biden's even older.
He's making even more flubs.
We don't know.
But the truth is, is that these have absolutely this shows that the mugshot seen around the world has absolutely backfired on the Biden administration.
This has backfired on the Democrats' vast left-wing conspiracy to get Trump.
And the trend is our friend.
Now, I want to caution.
Again, I said this before, but I'm going to say it again because it bears repeating time and time again.
We do not fixate on polls.
We play like we are 10 points down at all times.
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All right.
Let's get into it.
Mike Davis, Article 3 Project.
Welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
Thanks for joining us.
Thank you for having me, Andrew.
Absolutely.
So you texted me something, and I, you know, it is so in theme this week.
We just went over the poll numbers.
It looks like the trend is our friend.
McLaughlin poll has Trump up 49.41 in key battleground states, 4743 nationally.
Maybe that's an outlier.
Maybe it's not, but we're seeing similar bumps at the state level.
Georgia, he's up or even in all polls there.
Wisconsin, we don't have new polling out.
Arizona, he's up or tied.
Pennsylvania, he's tied with.
Michigan, he's tied.
And we still haven't even seen a lot of polling from those states post-indictment, but McLaughlin sort of shows that the trend is our friend, as you said.
Now, one of these conspiracies against Trump is this 14th Amendment.
And I really want to dive into this with you because, you know, you sent me this on a text.
I think it's super fascinating.
This show had a direct impact in New Hampshire.
We flooded the switchboards, Scanlon's office.
Now he's backing away saying, I'm not really going to, I'm not taking Trump off the ballot.
Trump this morning, the update for our audience is he has pleaded not guilty.
Let's start there, Mike.
Mike Davis, Article 3 project.
He has pleaded not guilty in Fulton County.
What does that mean?
What are the implications?
Timelines, everything.
The floor is yours.
So thank you for having me on again.
The Absurd 14th Amendment Theory 00:03:34
And President Trump waived his arraignment down in Fulton County, Georgia with Fannie Willis with her bogus racketeering indictment against him.
He pled not guilty.
The arraignments where you bring the defendant in and the judge makes sure that the defendant understands the charges against him, how much jail time he faces, make sure that he has an attorney.
You can waive that.
It's pretty routine.
So President Trump waived that.
Fanny Willis, who's a total buffoon, is going to try to have her trial before the election like the rest of these Democrat prosecutors with their election interference.
We have, you know, this is lawfare on many different fronts.
We have Alvin Bragg charging President Trump for the non-crime of settling a nuisance claim.
Somehow that turned into a campaign finance violation.
The Soros funded Manhattan DA.
Then we have Jack Smith charging President Trump for the non-crime of a former president having his presidential records, which is allowed by the Presidential Records Act.
Then we have Jack Smith and now Fannie Willis charging President Trump for the non-crime of objecting to a presidential election, which is allowed by the Electoral Count Act of 1887, twisting arms politically as allowed by the First Amendment.
We have New York Attorney General Tish James bringing a civil fraud lawsuit against Trump for the non-fraud of a businessman paying back sophisticated Wall Street banks in full with interest.
You have Gene Carroll bring in a lawsuit.
All these Democrat operatives, Democrat politicians fear they cannot beat President Trump on November 5th, 2024.
And as you just discussed, Andrew, they should fear that because President Trump is going to beat Biden like a drum.
They tried to take out President Trump with two impeachments, four indictments, several lawsuits.
They've turned him into Tupac, right?
He's becoming a legend bigger than life, and they can't take him out.
So the next play that they're trying to do is what you talked about, which is disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which is just an absurd legal theory.
During this, after the Civil War, the Republic almost fell apart.
You had the Confederate rebellion, insurrectionists trying to go to war against the Union.
And after the Civil War, what was happening is you had these Confederate sympathizers, including Confederate soldiers, who were getting elected to office, including the House of Representatives.
And so as part of the Civil War amendments, the 13th Amendment to outlaw slavery, the 14th Amendment, and the 15th Amendment to provide due process and equal rights to the freed slaves, they passed Section 3, which disqualified these Confederate sympathizers from holding office if they took up arms against the United States, insurrection or rebellion.
But under Section 5 of the 14th Amendment, these are not self-executing provisions.
Under Section 5, the Congress has to pass a statute, a criminal statute.
So you have evidence and a trial with a judge and a jury, and it's subject to appeal before you can disqualify someone from federal office under Section 3.
So Congress has passed the statute and the Rebellion and Insurrection Statute, and that's on the books.
They're not charging President Trump with rebellion or insurrection under the statute.
Disqualification Requires Congressional Statute 00:10:15
So you can't disqualify him unless you charge him under that federal criminal statute.
And you can't just have some Yahoo Secretary of State somewhere just unilaterally decide, hey, we're in a swing state like New Hampshire.
We're just going to take President Trump off the ballot so Biden wins by default.
All right.
So let's, yeah, and you're going into the guts of this article.
And so this is from Reason.
Professor Michael McConnell responding about the 14th Amendment insurrection and Trump.
He says, we must not forget that we are talking about empowering partisan politicians, such as state secretaries of state, to disqualify their political opponents from the ballot, depriving voters of the ability to elect candidates of their choice if abused.
This is profoundly anti-democratic.
Now, this is similar to what we've heard from Alan Dershowitz.
He said that this is basically the end of democracy as we know it if these laws or if this legal theory rather is pursued in any real form.
Now, we heard about California's considering doing this.
Okay, fine.
We don't win any electoral, you know, we don't win the state of California anyways, but New Hampshire is potentially a battleground state.
I haven't seen the polling out of there recently.
But tell us about this professor, Michael McConnell.
You know, this person.
He's no Trump fan, right?
And here he is defending.
Yeah, he's a Stanford law professor.
He was a former judge on the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals.
And when I clerked for then Judge Gorsuch the first time on the 10th Circuit, he was Judge Gorsuch, one of Judge Gorsuch's colleagues.
He's a good guy.
He's a very smart, conservative guy, conservative slash libertarian.
He's definitely not a Trump fan.
So this is not some Trump shill putting out this theory to debunk this bogus theory by the Democrats.
This is a very well-respected former federal circuit judge and Stanford law professor who's putting out serious academic research, put out serious opinions on the 10th Circuit.
And there's one case that we've only had one case that addressed this provision of the 14th Amendment, and it was more than 150 years ago.
And it's the controlling case on point that validates what Judge, well, I guess Professor McConnell is saying now, which is that under the 14th Amendment, it's not self-executing.
You can't just say, okay, well, we think that Donald Trump incited an insurrection, and so therefore we're going to take him off the ballot in New Hampshire or Michigan or one of these other states that could decide the election.
Again, you have to charge President Trump with insurrection or rebellion under a specific federal criminal statute that was specifically passed to implement Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
It was passed by Congress pursuant to their power under Section 5 of the 14th Amendment.
Got it.
So Section 5 essentially defangs this from being a unilateral move by partisan actors in various states.
Is that essentially the assertion here by McConnell and yourself?
Yeah, I mean, it's, yeah, that you can't just have someone unilaterally say that there's an insurrection or a rebellion and we're going to take someone off the ballot.
Frankly, if you look at Fannie Willis's racketeering theory down in Georgia, which is a bogus theory, but if Democrats want to use that theory, I would say to a Republican attorney general or a Republican DA, if Democrats pursue this disqualification theory under the 14th Amendment, I think that a Republican Attorney General or Republican DA should charge them with racketeering.
I love that.
But Mike, you're kind of exposing something that we rail on on this show a lot, which is the fact that we have not seen any sort of similar counter moves by AGs or even DAs in red states.
What's holding these people back?
I don't understand it.
I mean, Charlie brought up, just randomly picked one of the red states, South Carolina, Attorney General.
We get a message back within like 10 minutes saying, hey, I'm not taking anybody off the ballot.
We're like, okay, okay, guys.
Like, we're not saying you have to.
We're saying counter move.
Where's the aggression?
Where's the offensive?
Why are we not seeing that from red states, attorneys general, and DAs?
I would say that Republicans, particularly Republican attorneys, and also Republican white male politicians, are the biggest cowards on the planet.
They think that we're just going to return to norms after president.
This is what they actually think.
They think that if Trump goes away, we just go back to our norms.
They don't understand that we're not dealing with our parents or grandparents' Democrat Party.
These aren't liberals who love America and just disagree with conservatives on the best way to get their Mike Davis.
You're doing great work.
You're saying, hey, these Democrats have glass jaws, legally speaking.
We need to take the brass knuckles out.
I couldn't agree more.
I think the base is, I mean, I remember after the Fulton County indictment, trending on Twitter was do something, anything.
Charlie had a mega viral op-ed in the Federalists saying, how do we respond?
Indict the left.
And it went mega viral.
You know, Don Jr. tweeted it.
Mark Levin tweeted it.
It was all over the place.
And so, Mike, let's just game this out.
All right.
Where are opportunities to take out the brass knuckles, legally speaking?
We're not advocating real violence here or anybody, but what are some opportunities if we can find somebody?
You know, you think like Ken Paxton, he was actually our fighter out of Texas, and now he's under assault at a local level.
The rhinos have turned on him.
What are some opportunities?
BLM?
Is it James Biden in Florida?
What are your ideas for this?
Yeah, I mean, anywhere there's a Republican Attorney General, a Republican DA with a backbone.
And what we need to be looking at, and House Republicans, frankly, should be doing this as well.
We need to be defunding the left and putting them on defense because when they're not on defense, they're on offense.
And we've seen that for the last year with President Trump.
There's a reason that Democrats feel emboldened to impeach a president twice for bogus reasons.
Impeach President Trump for investigating then candidate Joe Biden's foreign corruption in Ukraine.
There's a reason these Democrat prosecutors feel emboldened to indict him four times and these Democrat attorneys feel emboldened to sue him multiple times because there's not a consequence.
Democrats only respect power, right?
So we need to show them there is a consequence.
We need to defund all of this lawfare.
Two appropriations writers, and I want to praise Congressman Andrew Clyde for taking the baton from the Article III project.
Here are the two appropriations writers that House Republicans must include.
No federal funds may be used to prosecute a major presidential candidate on or before November 5th, 2024.
And any state or local government that prosecutes a major presidential candidate on or before November 5th, 2024 loses all federal funding, right?
That is the kill switch, that you can cut all this lawfare off against President Trump before the election.
This is election interference.
It's obvious.
The American people, not Democrat prosecutors, Democrat judges, and Democrat juries and Democrat hellholes like New York, D.C., New York, D.C., and Atlanta, get to decide the next presidential election.
I totally agree, Mike.
I'm worried that leadership is not ready for that September 30 fight.
I'm worried Andrew Clyde's going to be coming on the show soon out of Georgia.
He's done a great job.
I agree.
Now, I've got just a few more minutes with you here, Mike, and I want to play a clip for you that went mega viral on this show, Newt Gingrich.
He mentions the Weiss screw-up, okay?
And I want to get your quick reaction after that because you have been on top of Weiss.
We weren't sure what to make of Weiss.
You told me right at the beginning, I said, no, he's not good.
He's not good.
Weiss is not good.
So let's play Cut 37.
I'm going to get your quick reaction.
That I am told, this was hearsay, but I am told by a reliable source that Friday evening, somebody from Washington called the District Attorney in Atlanta and said, you have to indict on Monday.
We have to cover up all of the mistakes we just made with Weiss.
And she said, apparently, my jurors aren't coming back till Tuesday.
And they said, you didn't hear me.
You have to indict on Monday.
And she said, well, they're not going to get here before noon.
They said, that doesn't matter.
She said, this means it's going to be eight or nine or 10 o'clock at night.
They said, it doesn't matter.
We need the news media shift.
Who made that phone call?
We don't know.
And I'm telling you up front, this is hearsay, but it's from a person who has remarkably.
I totally believe it, though, because that would explain why they leaked and they messed up on the clerk document, why she was exhausted, and why they had the 11 p.m. press conference, Mr. Speaker.
So, all the screw-ups with Weiss.
What's your take on this special counsel with Weiss?
Yeah, I mean, I would New Gingrich was my first boss in Washington when I interned for him 25 years ago as the House Speaker.
He's great.
If he's saying something, you can take it to the bank.
It's very clear that David Weiss is a Democrat operative.
He was picked by both Democrat and home state senators.
They say he's a Trump appointee.
People don't understand how that process works.
I ran the process.
I know that he is a Democrat pick.
Both home state senators in Delaware picked him.
There's obvious collusion between all of these prosecutors.
Fanny Willis was at our press conference.
She answered every question that she, I mean, she's a moron, but she answered all these questions.
The one question she wouldn't answer is whether she's coordinating with the Biden Justice Department.
It's very obvious she is.
All right, Mike.
Fantastic commentary, as always.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
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