Maricopa Confidence/Incompetence with Gina Swoboda, Austin Smith, Tyler Bowyer, and Jack Posobiec
The vigil over Arizona's interminably long vote counting continues, but there are forty-nine other states that had elections, too. Charlie and Posobiec discuss race results from Alaska to Los Angeles, and how conservatives in much-maligned New York and California are responsible for a Republican House. Then, it's back to the all-important Arizona theater, where elected officials seem to be dropping votes as slowly as possible. Charlie gets a crucial update from Lake campaign surrogate Gina Swoboda on why the last wave of Maricopa ballots will be a red flood.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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California Saves The Country00:08:24
Hey, everybody.
Today at Charlie Kirk Show, we dive to the latest of Arizona, Nevada, and how New York and California might have saved the country.
No joke.
As always, emailing me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
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As always, email me your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
I want to thank Charlie.
He's an incredible guy.
His spirit, his love of this country.
He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
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We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
That's why we are here.
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Happy Veterans Day.
So thank you, Jack, for serving.
Appreciate that.
Thank you.
So Veterans Day is the day we honor those that have served.
Memorial Day is when we honor those that died in service.
Is that right?
That's correct.
Okay.
And so thank you.
Have a great day, those of you that have off, and I hope Maricopa doesn't take today off.
Okay, we are going to get into all things Arizona.
We're going to talk about all the drama related to that, but I actually want to talk about some other bigger picture things.
Here's some notable non-Arizona news.
Let's go around the horn, set the table, then come back because we know it's going to be in Arizona, folks.
Yes, and then I'm going to tell you how California probably saved the Republic.
Oh, wait, wait, wait.
California.
That's right.
I mean, the left coast.
All the amazing patriots in California, all the amazing pastors, all the organizing, everything that happened in California might have actually resulted in the saving of the American Republic.
Okay.
You got to walk me through this.
Okay.
So first and foremost, just some interesting palace intrigue.
Ron DeSantis has now officially surpassed Donald Trump in the betting market for the 2024 prediction on Predict It.
That's not going to hold.
I mean, look, we've been talking about the betting markets all week here.
And the betting markets, it's just kind of like thumb in the air.
All right, I'm going to go with this.
Thumb in the air, I'm going to go with this.
There's not a lot.
I mean, if you're going with the betting markets, you might be buying crypto this week.
You know what I mean?
Like, just saying.
That's right.
So that's just one kind of interesting piece of news.
Republicans right now sit at 211 House seats that have been called in our favor.
We now lead an 11 more.
And plus, there's the Joe Kent and Schweiker seat, which both seem likely to flip in our favor.
I've been watching Kent very closely.
That it's trending positively.
Big time.
It really is.
And Schweikert is, I think he's going to win.
That's Scottsdale Cave Creek, Arizona one.
I don't see him losing that, especially with these drops.
And so that's at least 13 seats, at least, which would mean that Republicans have a six-seat majority and potentially upwards of a seven or eight-seat majority.
Now, let me take a pause here.
If it was not for California Republicans and conservatives and patriots organizing and running good candidates, Pelosi would still be Speaker of the House.
The roads of the majority went through New York and California.
And it was the New York map and getting that New York map change.
It's huge.
And so I just want to encourage all of you in California that said, hey, never forget about us.
Don't forget about us.
You know what?
Not only did we not forget about you, you might have just retired Nancy Pelosi.
In fact, you did.
Without California, New York rising up.
It's kind of fitting, by the way, that it was from California.
She's from North California that retired Nancy Pelosi from California for so long.
And the states that didn't actually perform, Michigan did not perform.
Pennsylvania did not perform.
We did not win a consequential flip seat unless I'm missing something in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Illinois, or Minnesota.
So that kind of Midwestern usually in Ohio was very disappointing congressionally.
We lost three winnable congressional races there, three.
Which at a time where JD Vance wins big, what, 6.6%?
You got DeWine winning by 25.
Some huge numbers for DeWine, who is, by the way, a huge lockdown guy.
And we're not going to forget about that.
And at the same time, though, these maps in a lot of these states, Pennsylvania, like I've talked about the map issue there.
The Supreme Court threw out the map that the state legislature had written, and they found some professor in California who basically punched something into an algorithm and said, okay, this is going to make the Democrats win.
And that's what we're going to do.
And it should have been reversed.
But what's so amazing?
I mean, there were states that underperformed.
Pennsylvania, Supreme Court.
Pennsylvania underperformed, terrible map.
Ohio underperformed.
Georgia underperformed big time in the congressional races that were competitive there.
And so you kind of take those states together.
But who made up the difference?
California and New York made up the difference.
If California and New York would have performed as horribly as Pennsylvania and as Illinois or as Ohio congressionally, Nancy Pelosi is still speaker.
So Pelosi is going to be retired because of the blue state New York and California remnant that rose up and retired.
That's like the resistance.
They're spectacular.
They're like the underground, like the conservative underground that's like operating under the regime occupied territories, but still able to get these behind victories.
Yeah.
Like they're gumming up the supply chains.
They're messing with stuff.
And then every once in a while, it adds up and it adds up and it adds up as we've seen in this battle of attrition that we're in, political battle of attrition, that when it comes to the House, it is about each seat.
Long Island, by the way.
Long Island is like bright red.
And this is Lee Zeldon who decided to run for governor and he made a competitive referendum statewide.
He sacrificed his congressional care.
He was in a safe seat.
He would have been fine.
Yeah.
He could have stayed there as long as he was.
He's being in leadership right now in the Woodlands.
That's right.
You know, you should run Lee Zeldon for speaker.
That'd be interesting.
Or maybe even Lee Zeldon for RNC.
Or something.
I mean, Lee Zeldon deserves all of our thanks, all of our gratitude.
We're going to have Lee Zeldon on the program at some point.
I've known Lee for some time.
I'm not sure.
Charlie, what does that mean?
So he ran for governor, putting a referendum on Hochul, which all of a sudden made a statewide conversation on crime, on taxes, on inflation, which then really provided air cover for.
And it was the rising tide.
It was the rising tide.
It provided air cover for all of these other candidates that in New York otherwise would have just been kind of picked off one by one by the Driple C. Instead, Lee Zeldon, he distracted resources.
And what happened to the head of the Driple C?
Maloney is done.
I mean, he was 10 points.
I don't know if they've called that race or not.
I believe it was called.
Yeah, I mean, that's, they did call the race.
Okay, cool.
So anyway, then you go all the way to California.
California, they're still counting a lot of ballots because that's California.
Thankfully, they just called Young Kim's race in Orange County, which is terrific.
Kevin Calvert is ahead in the 41st district in California.
Ken Calvert, I should say.
Mike Garcia is leading in this 27th House District.
Huge.
And Kevin Kiley is going to win in the third House District in California.
And so in this kind of strange world we live in, when we were like, yeah, Tudor Dixon's going to be governor of Michigan.
I'll be the first one to admit, boy, did I misread Michigan.
Holy moly.
And I'm not saying, of course, there was ballots, mules, and fraud, but you're trying to tell me there's not that in New York, there's not that in California, is that the people in New York and California overwhelmed it and they overcame it is what I'm saying, right?
And so.
Well, it's also fundamentally, a statewide race is fundamentally different than a house race, right?
You're talking about a district race that's only confined to the votes within that district.
Yep, that's exactly right.
And so the United States House of Representatives is large in part going to be Republican, thanks to two blue states that usually are made fun of, scoffed at, that kind of are the end of jokes like, well, at least you don't have to live in San Francisco or at least live in L.A. You know what?
The California Patriots said, we're not going to take it anymore.
Which L.A., by the way, I mean, there's about a hair's difference between Caruso and the Democrats.
I think she's going to pull it out, but the fact that it's that competitive, you got to point that out.
Unified Conservative Movement00:02:41
Totally.
Okay, so let's get the late.
So anyway, I just want to say thank you, thank you, thank you.
If you live in New York, thank you guys for rising up, for supporting good candidates.
If you live in Long Island, in Long Island, you should guys celebrate this weekend because you delivered a massive blow to the Democrat Party, a blow that the people of Ohio and Michigan and Minnesota were not able to scrap together.
And I'm not insulting anyone from those states.
I'm just it's a fact.
And they say, oh, well, Charlie, there was mules and stuff.
You don't think they have those operations in Long Island?
Right, but we have to take stock.
We have to take stock of where we are.
We have to look at victories and there's no substitute for that.
That's right.
So I just want to compliment and thank everybody in those states.
Okay, we're going to talk about Nevada as well with Adam Laxalt.
Look, it is the most corrupt county in America, Clark County.
And I'll be very honest, it's not looking good.
Adam Laxalt is only up, I think, 9,000 votes.
This dump last night in Washaw just, I really think it shifted the trajectory a lot.
Yeah.
It did.
Right when the cameras went off, of course, right?
Conservative here says abortion is generally a loser issue for conservatives.
It's time to do what Europe has done, put some limits and then move on.
Lindsey Graham didn't help us at all, Dave.
Look, I just, I'm saying a lot of people are tired of the issue and they want to move on with it, especially Gen Zers.
However, I'm also involved in the culture war, so I'm not going to stop talking, but I'm going to try to persuade people and convince people to be pro-life.
I also want to point out, though, that just hold on a second, right?
Roe v. Wade was the target of a 30-year campaign by the conservative movement to, number one, lay down the legal foundation to pass heartbeat bills, wait for technology to catch up with where we knew the truth was, get the president, by the way, president of the United States, Donald Trump, who had the appointees on the Supreme Court that were able to finally look,
give Roe v. Wade the accurate legal review that it needed and then send it to the curb.
And so the takedown of Roe v. Wade was this massive victory for the conservative movement.
It shows a concerted effort that spanned an entire generation in the movement, and we shouldn't diminish that.
And we also, we understand that there was backlash.
We get that, right?
But we also need to point out that this was a huge movement, and it shows what a unified force the conservative movement can be when we all get on the line and we all unite behind one solid issue.
And look, we know that Donald Trump, right?
Everybody knows I'm a Trump supporter, but everybody knows that Donald Trump isn't exactly the most pro-life, super movement, conservative, evangelical kind of guy out there, right?
Runoff Election Backlash00:03:28
New Yorker, right?
But at the same time, he came to the movement and it was transactional.
And he said, look, if this is what you want, if these are the judges that you want, I will give them to you.
And George W. Bush didn't do that.
And nobody else could have beaten Hillary in 2016.
She would have been president and you would never have those justices on the court right now.
Look, Republicans are going to have to figure out some messaging on abortion.
And Carrie Lake, I think, did some of the best because she's so talented.
Most are not.
Okay, other updates.
Here's why you can't have ranked choice voting.
Ranked choice voting is the worst.
This is so frustrating.
Protect democracy, but allow ranked choice voting.
Kelly Shabaka, she won the most votes.
She won a plurality of votes in a four-way race with 44%.
So she won the race, right, Charlie?
Not in Alaska.
But she had the most votes.
Doesn't matter.
You have to get 50 plus one or else you go to the second round of ranked choice voting.
The what?
So, in Alaska, the way it works, and this was designed and implemented because thanks to Project Veritas, we know this.
Lisa Murkowski put together a coup in Alaska and basically said that if you do not get 50 plus one, then it goes to the second round.
Now, some people say, Well, Charlie, to be fair, Warnock won his race, but he didn't get more than 50%.
Well, that's a runoff system.
This is not even allowing for a runoff, which I would support.
If there is a runoff now between Murkowski and Shabaka, then great, that's fine.
Let's do it.
Shabaka would win by 20 points.
But it would be a run, would a runoff with the ranked choice voting again?
No, no, no, no.
Well, that's the point: is that there isn't instead of a runoff, which is annoying but understandable, right?
Because some people say, Well, hold on a second.
Like, Georgia.
Like, Charlie, you know, isn't a runoff system helping you in Georgia?
Of course, it is.
Yes, it is, because Herschel Walker did not get a plurality.
Warnock got a plurality.
The point is this: this now goes to this goofy, algorithmic second and third round where they have to tabulate the votes.
And I'll be very honest, I do not even understand how this is tabulated, where it depends on whether or not people ranked Shabaka or if they did a second candidate.
Shabaka's hope in this whole tabulation process is that if a vast majority of people only ranked Shabaka and left the rest of the ballot completely blank, that's her hope.
Now, in the congressional race, which is equally as frustrating, Democrat Mary Palota got 47% before the runoff, while Palin and Begich are right around 25%.
If all Republicans stayed loyal this cycle, this will go to the Republican Party, but that didn't help happen in the special election, and it probably won't happen here.
Therefore, Democrats are probably going to win the Alaska congressional seat.
And so, basically, it looks as if, unless there's some sort of surprise in Alaska, thanks to Mitch McConnell's $9 million, Lisa Murkowski is going to hold on to her Senate seat despite losing a plurality of votes in the first round of ranked choice voting with four other competitors.
Think about it.
Not only is Kelly Shabaka popular, she's so popular that she got 44% against four competitors, and that's likely not going to be enough.
So, he spent $9 million in Alaska.
How much did he spend here in Arizona?
Almost in the Senate against $50,000 to a million.
Sort of double-check.
Almost nothing.
Trump Effect In Georgia00:11:31
Arizona.
Yep.
And Blake Masters is right on the brink of losing by 10,000, winning by 20,000.
We don't know until the final ballots are dropped.
Okay.
And so this is where that's where it stands in Alaska right now.
It looks like the Democrats are going to hold on to the House seat and they're going to.
And by the way, beating an incumbent, that's.
It's a big deal.
It's very hard to beat an incumbent.
And I mean, look, Laxalt is learning that in Nevada.
This is a great year for incumbents.
It just was.
Charlie Kirk here.
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Look, there is something interesting, though, Jack.
One of the reasons why the polls were so off in some of these states is that the Democrats have actually figured out a way to outperform polls by mastering vote by mail.
That's right.
That's exactly right.
It's in the same way.
And Charlie, you had the point the other day where in the Trump era, we had become accustomed to sort of seeing a poll and then adding three that's that was my built-in algorithm.
Five points.
And that was like a built-in bias that we all kind of had.
And that was the Trump effect.
But we've also found that that doesn't really exist when Donald Trump is not on the ballot.
We saw that in 2018.
We're seeing that in 2022.
It just is what it is.
He has a way to connect with a huge swath of this country in the Midwest, in the South, in the Rust Belt, obviously, that other candidates just have not been able to replicate.
And it just is what it is, right?
And you can talk about that at length as to why.
But we're not seeing the same turnout numbers when he is on the ballot and when he isn't.
And so because of that, those polls, and we said before, the polls for this election actually were pretty good in many cases.
Now, some outlets out there, I think maybe we should take another look at and determine whether or not we want to continue relying on them.
And I think that RCP, by the way, has a great accountability project that they're working on right now, where they're going to be going through and then ranking and stacking all of the pollsters by their accuracy, using the final outcomes, weighting it by the last few elections, and then seeing where we are.
And I think that's great.
I think that's fantastic.
But at the same time, the Trump effect that we were thinking about.
So, okay, that works and Trump's on the ballot.
But this vote by mail effect that they've been able to demonstrate here now through at least two consecutive national elections, all right, that's real and it has to be confronted.
That's right.
So, just kind of some other things that I want to touch on that are interesting.
Other races across the country and other Lauren Boebert is looking better and better.
Praise God.
Lauren Bobert now has a 2,000-vote lead.
No, that's not right.
1,100 vote lead.
Okay.
So she's a much more solid lead than the other day.
Yeah, she's running away with it.
Sorry, MSNBC.
Yeah, they would have loved that.
Well, what's happening is the same thing that's happening in Arizona, right?
Which is that you have what's happening at Lauren Boebert.
What's up, Tyler?
Hey, how are you doing, Jack?
Good morning.
Get your golf in this morning.
Yeah.
Not with Ping.
Not with Ping.
We're going to tell the Ping story a little bit later.
Tonight.
Tonight is a thing story.
Tonight is a thing.
Oh, tonight.
The audience that was last night was following along.
I mean, it was wild.
I was getting memes like until come back tonight.
I'm not kidding.
I love this audience because I was getting memes until like literally until it was like this.
I woke up to nothing but ping golf ball members.
Like nothing but like the wrecking ball ping meme that I retweeted is like the best thing I've ever seen.
I've never seen anything crazy.
We're having fun.
We're deliberately not going to explain this.
We have a continuation of that story.
I think you can ask me questions about it.
I haven't even told the guys the whole story yet because later.
Oh, right.
Tonight.
But yeah, no, I actually have just was getting diving into this.
We have, we need to start.
We're going to cover today, I think, all of the remaining ballots that exist out in Arizona, where they are, where they need to go, what percentages we are estimating because we're going through and brick by brick, going, okay, here are the tranches of votes that are left.
What percentage can we guesstimate, can we estimate based off with factual evidence to back it up of why we think that we can win some of these?
We know we keep saying that this is why we keep saying over and over and over and over, Caroline's going to be your governor, is because what's left has the capacity to put her over big time.
The big question is, where's Blake?
Where's Mark Fincham?
A lot of people are saying, where the heck is Mark Fincham at?
That guy is one of the noisiest guys ever.
He's hunkered down, wading down.
I know he's tweeting a little bit, but not much.
Because, look, I mean, this is a close race.
This is a very close race.
And the reality is this, is that everything will depend on what's left.
We can get into it whenever you're ready to get into it, Charlie.
Yeah, I just want something that we're going to cover this out.
I just want to wrap one other thing.
And I've been just bragging on our amazing California Patriots that basically, you know, delivered the entire House of Representatives for us.
It's amazing.
So let me just finish a couple of our pieces of news here.
The Los Angeles mayor's race.
I'm afraid that Rick Caruso does have a tiny lead, but I think Karen Bass is going to take it.
There's just so much ballot harvesting there in Los Angeles.
Even with Katy Perry's vote?
Yeah, even with Katy Perry's vote.
Chris Pratt, too.
I'll give him props for that.
Well, Chris Pratt.
Oh, it's not a big ask to go vote for Rick Caruso.
Okay.
Chris Pratt, who did vote for Trump in 2016.
If you go, that's right.
If you go to Los Angeles, man, it is a dystopian nightmare.
And these celebrities, I think, are starting to recognize and realize it.
And Snoop.
But you never got Snoop.
Do you know what Carrie Lake has to do, though?
She has to say they are not welcome here in Scottsdale.
No, these people will come here just like Will Farrell went to Georgia.
No tax credits, no red carpet.
We won't welcome you.
I mean, we'll treat you with dignity, right?
Because you're a person, but like, we're not going to all of a sudden act as if it's the coolest.
You have no place here.
And by the way, one of the great things never to happen in Arizona, and I think Shooter was the one that actually helped knock this down in the legislature.
Don Shooter, if I'm not mistaken, was when he killed the film tax credit bill in Arizona.
They bundled a bunch of money for them this last session.
Are you kidding me?
Well, Carrie Lake's not going to put up with that.
That's coming to an end.
There's going to be zero Hollywood in the state of Arizona.
Yeah, so what we're talking about here is why Georgia is now all of a sudden this bluish, reddish state, purple state, is that these red state governors who can't see the forest from the trees, they say, oh, wow, look at all this economic development we could get.
And we have all this land where we could bring in Hollywood and they could film all these movies.
Well, then you bring in the entire Hollywood infrastructure.
That's the LGBTQIA mafia.
They all buy homes here.
They then do fundraisers here.
They take over restaurants.
They start take, I mean, you're talking about hundreds of thousands of people.
That's a massive employment agency, and they're 90% Democrat.
It's a bigger problem than that, Charlie.
And it's really, and this transverse, this is not just in the media and Hollywood and movie making industry, the film industry.
This is any industry where you bring people here, you take advantage of the tax credits and the land and the good weather.
This is what happened in Georgia.
Guess where all those people still report to?
Where are all the bosses at?
In Los Angeles.
They're in Los Angeles.
They're in New York.
They're in wherever.
So you now have taken a bunch of people who are maybe like moderate Democrats, maybe they're liberals.
They move there.
They hire a bunch of conservatives.
And these people may be conservatives or historically conservatives.
And then they report to Democrats outside the state.
So you basically, it's despotism is what it is.
It's industrial despotism that happens in Arizona and Georgia, right?
This is what they're trying to do.
This is happening in Arizona with startups.
This is what's happening in Arizona and tech companies.
The startups and tech companies are moving their mid-tier or low-wage jobs to Arizona.
And their bosses are, guess where?
In the Bay Area.
Yep.
And so guess what?
They don't change their politics.
Why?
Because they still report to left-wing lunatic that lives in San Jose or lives in San Francisco.
This is what Elon Musk is dealing with right now.
Yeah.
Elon Shooter.
This is what Elon's dealing with.
Exactly.
He's like, oh, I moved to Texas, but it doesn't matter because I still have lunatics that are Travis County.
I think that's called Travis County, right?
Travis County?
Yeah, that's correct.
Has become bluer because of all these tech companies that move there.
So look, we're all for pro-economic development, but instead of moving and transplanting people from California, Carrie Lake needs to go to the ASU business school and basically say, I'm going to employ you guys first.
And those guys will become more right-wing because they'll see a Republican governor prioritizing like ASU graduates instead of saying Caltech and UC Berkeley people.
Is that right?
Yeah.
So the governor has to go.
And this is what Doug Ducey did not have the cajones to do.
And this is what the Chamber of Commerce has completely failed.
And I've blasted them online for this: instead of saying, Yeah, just move all your blue guys over here.
No, that's not what we want.
We don't want any of them here.
Leave them there.
Keep paying them their crappy wages in San Jose territory up there.
Leave them there.
Hire Arizonans.
If you want to move here, you have to hire Arizonans.
That's the deal.
Well, that's exactly right.
So that's the deal.
If Dropbox wants to open an office in Awatuke, you can't bring people from across the country.
He has to hire ASU grads or Grand Canon University grads.
Or we'll build a wall at the Colorado River.
Yeah, that's right.
And so it's not this transplant thing, right?
No more.
Yes.
And that's how all of a sudden these corridors start to change.
Like Chandler and Mesa and Gilbert start to change.
Okay.
That's the biggest question with Chandler because people are looking at this map that we were going over yesterday, and I got messages that said, like, holy crap, I didn't realize Chandler went so blue.
Yeah, that's right.
You know why Chandler went so blue?
They opened Price Corridor.
Look it up off the 101.
I've driven by it many times.
All these different companies went through.
I think MasterCard is there too.
All of them brought in, and it's despotism that's there.
It's on the street, right?
It's right there.
It's right exactly right there.
It's south of the 2020.
And they built all this.
They have all these different companies there in there.
And they all report to these losers in California.
So Toyota, Voya Financial, Northip Grumman, Defense Contractor, GM Financial, and you have Expedia.
They all have a corridor.
And so it does.
Okay, so let me just finish one other thing here really quick.
And so let's go here to this one.
Okay, I want to address this because some people say, you know, younger voters cast the deciding votes.
Hold on a second.
We're going to talk about first and foremost the impact Turning Point has had.
Millennials Save This Nation00:06:42
Millennials were a plus 38-point reliable Democrat voting demographic a decade ago before Turning Point was on the scene, right, Tyler?
Plus 38.
Now they are plus two.
So 36 point movement.
That is a measurable turning point action outcome.
Okay, but they say here in Politico.
Exit polls show that young voters are motivated by abortion, climate policy, and gun control.
Polling data in recent years show Gen Z are the most secular, that's true, and openly gay of any living age group.
That is true.
They are the gayest generation in history.
They are also increasingly likely to be raised by one parent.
That's true because of many different reasons.
And to believe that single-parent households are not a bad thing for society.
Wow.
Thank you for that.
One quick thing here.
GOP has a massive political problem on its hands.
While Republicans made gains amongst minority voters, they'll have to address the rising threat of a politically active generation with a little connection of traditional values.
I disagree with a lot of this.
First and foremost, they're also the most suicidal, alcohol-addicted, psychiatric, drug-addicted, depressed, unhappy, anxious generation in history.
And so they're either going to figure it out or they're all going to kill themselves using drugs and alcohol.
I hope that doesn't happen.
And so they're going to anchor themselves to tradition and through antiquity, not through modernity, over a period of time.
But here's the thing.
Do you know Gen Z is actually 10 points less Democrat than millennials were at the very same age?
Yep.
And so this is a mass psyop by the TikTok people, by the alphabet mafia, and by all these different people.
Okay.
Gen Z is 10 points more conservative than millennials were.
The most incredible number I saw, which just took my breath away, is millennials are now only two points in favor of Democrats.
That is like unbelievable.
This is like 30 to 38 year olds.
That's also a good idea.
That's right, right.
Millennials are getting older, man.
I'm the younger of millennials.
Right on the older side.
Yeah, so you have a 34-year-old.
The fact that millennials are now only two points in the Democrat direction is shocking.
It should just make you say, oh, wow, things can change.
They moved 36 points over a course of 15 years, 10 to 15 years.
That's turning point doing its job, by the way.
And so, yes, Gen Z is very miserable.
They're very secular, but I do believe that there can be a big move.
There can be.
Okay, email us your thoughts.
Freedom at charliekirk.com.
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Email me your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Millennials becoming a battleground demographic.
That is really good news for the future.
Yeah, Gen Z, we have a lot of work to do.
I got one parent that emailed me and said, Charlie, why is Gen Z so liberal?
My son is 21 years old.
It's, I joke around like, why don't you do your job?
Like, I can only do so much from the outside.
We're going to try our best here.
And we are going to move that window.
But according to CNN, millennials only voted for Democrats by two points nationwide.
That is a great sign for the future.
Charlie, I'm 66 years old, and I'm telling you right now, turning point is the most important political movement in America.
It is the key to changing the political climate.
Great job.
Your generation will save this country.
Honestly, I believe my eight and five-year-old grandkids will have a great life because of your movement.
That's a really special email.
Very nice.
Thank you, Charles.
I appreciate that.
Big movements with millennials, everybody.
You have a 36-point movement over a decade.
Someone's doing their job.
Tyler is tabulating the ballots remaining here in Arizona, which is very helpful.
And we're going to kind of go through all that.
I have a pretty good idea of it, but honestly, I didn't do the math last night.
I just took a second and did something non-political for like an hour, which was nice.
So here's another couple interesting things and other ballot measures that we haven't spoken about.
Legalized sports gambling in California lost terribly.
Isn't that interesting?
Legalized sports gambling in California lost pretty badly.
Prop 30, a measure to tax the rich to fund electric car credits in California, failed.
Okay, explain this one to me.
How does that fail in California?
I'm telling you, California has some fight left in it, man.
I mean, the story of this cycle is how the Midwest underperformed and California overperformed.
And look, this was a sinister plot, by the way, of the crony capitalist company Lyft to try to get taxpayers to get them to fund their electric car fleet, basically.
It was a crony capitalist handout.
Prop 31 upheld the state's ban on flavored tobacco products.
California legalized abortion as a constitutional right, but they upheld a ban on flavored tobacco products.
So you can kill your child right before they're born.
But if you're going to have a scented cigarette, I don't know.
I don't know really.
So I guess it's like you have to, you can kill them, but they have to be healthy after they're born if you choose to have them.
I lost.
I thought I had it there, Charlie.
I thought I had it.
I thought I had it, and that's why I lost it.
In New Hampshire, a bid to call a constitutional convention failed by a two to one margin, which is interesting.
A lot of chatter about constitutional conventions throughout the years, right, Tyler?
That got obliterated.
And so a lot of this doesn't make sense, but that's welcome to ballots and referendums and propositions.
Email me directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.
David says you're doing the wrong messaging to MAGA patriots.
Pennsylvania has 600,000 more Democrats.
How many new Republicans were registered by the RNC?
Trump turned out the vote.
Just look at the turnout nationwide.
The message should be county-by-county registration drives.
600,000 vote deficit will be difficult for any Republican or Democrat to overcome.
What he's saying is that if everyone who voted for Trump or if one fourth of people who voted for Trump in 2020 also showed up for this Senate race, Fetterman would have been defeated.
It's that simple.
100%.
It's a turnout game, especially the midterms.
And the reality is this, is that the GOP, this is everything that we were harping on at Turning Point Action.
Win Maricopa County00:09:47
This is why we were a GO TV operation.
We were doing Super Saturdays.
We did Charlie.
We did upwards of 35 Super Saturdays per month in the Keith.
And that doesn't count all the other events we did, too.
Yeah, and that's just Super Saturdays.
It's just get out the vote events.
That's what you have to do in order to turn out your voters.
You have to do more of that.
We did less of that.
Not enough of it.
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So, Jack, you got some breaking news.
Yeah, we do have breaking out of Florida, even though I know we're all eyes on Arizona.
But look, you know, I like to kind of scan the horizon, see what's going on.
And Marco Rubio did not expect to see breaking out of Marco Rubio today, but we do have breaking out of Marco Rubio because Marco Rubio has just released a statement calling for the Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed.
He continues.
First, we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities and values of the working Americans of every background who gave us big wins in states like Florida.
Charlie, what does that mean?
What could he be referring to?
He's going after the turtle, man.
And in support of who?
Who could Marco Rubio be supporting?
Rick Scott, but they actually don't like each other.
Hilariously.
But there's a little bit of a trend.
But DeSantis hates Rubio and Rubio hates Scott and Scott hates DeSantis.
It's this triangle.
But it feels like there's a little Florida camaraderie there.
I don't know.
I'm sure.
I mean, look, Rick Scott's great.
I mean, Rick Scott comes on our show.
We disagree on things, and Rick Scott's a business guy.
Rick Scott will pick up the phone and talk to you.
Healthcare guy, right?
Yeah, he made money in health insurance.
I mean, look, Rick Scott is not.
Let me say this again.
Rick Scott is not a transactional Washington, D.C. liberal.
He's not.
Rick Scott is somewhere between a chamber of commerce and movement conservative, like the arithmetic mean between those two things.
Yeah, exactly.
Right?
Like if he's just, he like straddles.
I totally get what you mean by that.
And that's good.
I'll take that over Mitch McConnell.
Are you kidding me?
And Rick Scott will never lie to you either.
To me, it looks like Marco Rubio's statement is it's not an endorsement of Rick Scott, but keep in mind it says, we want to make sure.
We need to make sure.
And that's interesting.
We need to make sure.
So it's, but it's definitely a crack in the turtle shell, if you will.
Yeah.
I mean, look, it'll be really interesting to see kind of how some of these senators come down, like newly elected Eric Schmidt in Missouri, where he's going to vote.
I feel like you would go for Mitch.
I mean, he campaigned on the idea of not.
I mean, Hawley is not.
Mike Lee.
Yeah, Holly had a statement.
We'll see.
Rand Paul, it's going to be really tough for Rand Paul to oppose Mitch just because they're from the same state.
It's just like really, really hard.
But yeah, look, I mean, if Marco Ruby, of all people, is saying that, what I think is...
Hawley did blast GOP leadership for the midterm showing.
What I think is bubbling up is kind of a third type of Republican, which is a really good thing.
So you got the Chamber of Commerce, old bull types that are just a waste of time, right?
You got, for example, a lot of them sent.
Whatever business community wants, they get.
Yeah, they tend to be south of the Mason-Dixon line and also really in kind of the upper Midwest.
A lot of Kansas, a lot of Dakotas, a lot of Oklahoma.
South Carolina.
So it's reliably Republican states.
But there's kind of this third type of Republican that has kind of been kind of created, which is people that are starting to realize their base of voters are so disconnected from the old bulls and they do want to kind of straddle the line and they're going more in that direction.
It's like they're not populists themselves by nature, but they understand.
It's like Populism Inc. almost.
Yeah, I mean, and I'll take it.
And it's like, it's like they kind of, they get that populism is the, and the working class is.
But it is Marco, right?
I mean, it is, it is Ron Johnson.
Ron Johnson is not a chamber guy.
Well, maybe Marco now.
But I mean, what I'm saying, though, is Ron Johnson and Marco are probably pretty upset right now.
Not Ron Johnson.
No, definitely.
Ron Johnson's amazing.
Ron Johnson went to war against Pfizer, AstraZeneca, McGurna, and Johnson ⁇ Johnson, and he had the courage to do it and then live to tell about it and win decisively in Wisconsin, right?
And so I think there is kind of this pushback against the kind of old way of doing D.C.
And I mean, Marco, of all people doing that, Marco has a lot of power in D.C. He's very well respected in the Senate.
He's paid his dues.
He's been there for well over a decade.
Is that right?
Yeah, he won in 2010.
He's been there now for 12 years.
He's an OGT party.
Yeah, he's been there for 12 years.
What is your thoughts on this, Tyler?
Well, I mean, I think about this, and we're talking about how this overlays the future for 2024.
And the map that we're looking at, we've talked about this quite frequently on your show, is that the map comes down to essentially four states, depending upon what happens to Pennsylvania.
Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia.
And it's so interesting.
It's so intriguing you bring up Ron Johnson because what could happen in Arizona might be the opposite of what happened in Wisconsin, which is that you have Ron Johnson win, right?
And have this big voice on the Senate side and Michael's loss.
Pretty convincingly, too.
And we're going to have likely Carrie Lake win and a potential for a Blake Masters loss barely, right?
And so I think this is an indictment.
And I think this is part of where I think a lot of the feelings exist because Marco Rubia was kind of involved with the chamber guys and he was gang of A for sure.
He's converted through the Trump.
He's one of the Trump conversion eras, right?
I totally agree.
Because he's also listening to his voters in Miami-Dade County.
Because he's listening, right?
Because that's who he's been his entire thing.
He started as a moderate.
Well, he's legitimate.
He started as a moderate movement, moderate movement.
Yeah, he's just, they just like go flops back and forth.
But I think that what you're seeing is this is that, you know, people are looking at this and they're looking at this very pragmatically and going, look, we can't live in this world where like Mitch McConnell doesn't give Florida any money and like be okay with it.
We can't live in this world where like Wisconsin gets like underfunded and be okay with it.
We can't live in this world where Arizona gets completely ignored and be okay with it if we want to win for the future.
So yeah, we should delay leadership elections until we know who our freaking senators are, first and foremost, and get those extra votes so that the public has general confidence in who we like moving forward because more Mitch McConnell is not going to make the movement excited.
I do have another take on this that isn't necessarily political, but this is not a press statement.
This is not an interview that he gave.
It's a tweet.
It's on twitter.com.
That's where he posted this thing.
He's potentially changing the future of our republic based on something that he posted on Twitter.
So if you're not on Twitter, if you're not seeing that for all the people that want to, oh, Elon is doing this and Twitter is stupid and don't worry about it.
Charlie, you talked about it before.
This is where the narrative, this is where the news setting, this is where the news making, this is where the people who kind of start narratives.
This is where it is.
It's all the actions here.
It's right here.
So we're expecting ballot drops for Arizona later tonight, right?
Now, what's going on in Pima?
Pima's like this really strange veterans day.
So if they said they are definitely dropping today.
Yeah, they better be working today.
Like we're trying to balance that or are we saying that?
No, they're working today.
They should be.
I mean, we don't have an exact time and there's been no update on when they're going to do this, but our expectation is that the 290,000 votes that they were trying to signature verify have been verified.
Look, I'll tell you this, Charlie.
It basically comes down to two counties, Maricopa and Pima.
Maricopa, let me work backwards.
So Pima County, historically, if you understand Arizona, I tweeted about this.
If you understand Arizona, Pima County, that's a blue county, has always really been offset by the rest of the state.
That's how it's always worked.
Pretty much the numbers play out almost exact.
I think that we could edge out some extra votes out of Pima, meaning we may not.
We can't drops.
We may not win Pima County as a Republican Party.
Carrie's going to win.
We win as we win as a percentage.
So you brought this up.
Anything sub-20% lost in Pima County is essentially a win for us.
And that's what we have to look at.
And so you got to cut through the noise of every going like, oh, no, I can't win.
Like Pima County.
No, no, no, no.
Like, no, like, this is Pima County.
You know, you got your Cochises, you got your Mojave's, you got your Pinals that are going to make up for that.
Maricopa County is where everything comes down to.
Maricopa County is the purple, tossed up county at this point, right?
Where if we win Maricopa County, we pretty much win the whole state.
It doesn't matter.
And so now we're within the margins of, can we get close enough to be able to pull off an upset?
Or can we win Maricopa County?
Corrupt Clark County00:15:06
It looks like Kerry Lake can win Maricopa County.
That's why she's going to win outright.
And Blake is not going to quite get there, but can he pull off an upset with a lift from across the country?
So here's the hope for Blake, okay?
The hope for Blake, and it is realistic, okay?
This is not wishful thinking.
It is a trek.
The hope for Blake is that these drop-off ballots are 68 to 72% carry maybe even more.
Our hope, and I think there's a lot of data to support this, that these are the trumpiest ballots we have in the entire county.
Is that fair to say?
And there's a good chance that that's true.
Here's one of the reasons why, guys, is because about 120,000 of Kerry's voters in the primary voted this way.
Okay?
That's that alone.
120,000 of the most loyal Kerry Lake voters in the primary walked in their ballot on election day.
People do not dramatically change their behavior between August and November.
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So, look, there's ground to be made up in Pima.
Blake's hope, and look, it's completely a mystery.
Can you get Kerry and Blake's in-person Election Day Maricopa number?
Yeah, so this is the number.
So, Trump, let's go over Trump 2020 real quick.
So, Trump 2020's turnout number, I don't have the exact number in front of me, but I'm working off of memory off of what I looked at before.
He basically won Election Day.
I believe it was 57%.
Remember, he was coming in and he was winning like 57%.
And he was dipping below, but still winning.
I think he ended up winning about 51% of the election day drop-offs.
And this was a very competitive time period, right?
This is, you know, and again, I don't know what that is.
I don't know if that number is exact.
I'm going to get, I'll get updates on that.
I do know that the separation was a little bit less than 7%.
That's all that matters, really, for our estimation, is that the breakage and what we're calling breakage between Trump's Election Day vote win versus Trump's Election Day vote drop-offs was, let's call it 7%, a little bit less.
That means that how we look at this, we go, we use that as a measuring stick.
Kerry Lake overperformed Trump on Election Day turnout pretty significantly, right?
That's helpful to her.
That's really good.
You're starting from a better spot, essentially.
Blake Masters outperformed Trump on Election Day.
That is good too, because you're starting from a better spot.
Yep.
Kerry doesn't need as much space to win.
Kerry would have to underperform Trump significantly on Election Day drop-offs after having outperformed him on Election Day in person in order to lose.
The likelihood of that happening is so low, it verges on the scale of fraud.
Like the likelihood of that happening, to me is inconceivable.
Well, but here we know this by precincts, though.
We see precincts that Kerry is barely winning because we know that there were significant amount of drops.
Yeah, she's going to blast.
She's going to blast.
All of a sudden, you're going to see this surge.
I mean, you're going to see all those Scottsdale districts.
You're going to see all these North Phoenix districts.
You're going to see all these East Valley districts just go red, Yeah, look.
I mean, if D.C. Ranch doesn't vote for Kerry Lake, we should just put a lock on that gate and not let those people.
I know a lot of people that live in D.C. Ranch, and I can tell you right now, they're not Katie County.
They're not Katie Hobbs fans up there.
They're not.
But this goes back to Blake.
So the focus really becomes Blake, right?
And so you start to look at this term breakage.
And I'm using breakage as the term.
I don't know if it's actually the proper term, but I like it, so I'm going to use it.
Slippage is another good word.
Breakage between Blake's breakage between his day of on in-person election results and then his day of drop-off.
So, what we don't know is what does day of drop-offs look like in Maricopa County.
Now, if Blake, we do know Blake's day of in-person, and it was high.
He was doing very well.
He was in the 60s, right?
If he can remain closer to that, you know, he has to remain in the 60s, essentially, between his breakage with that day of drop-offs, then he has a shot.
He's a real shot.
If he does not do that, Charlie, then he doesn't have a shot.
Then he's going to lose by, you know, not very many votes.
10 or 12,000 votes.
It probably will be that.
It'll probably be very money.
With no money and Blake winning in different areas that Trump didn't win in.
So, really quick, I want to give a Nevada update.
Our team has been, let's just say, ferociously crunching numbers in Nevada.
So, this is how corrupt Clark County is.
We can't get a good number on how many ballots are actually left in Clark County.
So, by some estimates, people say there are 57,000 votes left in Clark County.
Other people say that it's possibly lower, right around 30,000, maybe even as low as 25,000.
We will know.
Adam Laxalt has a 0.97% lead right now.
I believe that's a 9,000-vote lead, if I'm not mistaken.
For all of you keeping scored home, yeah, that's a 9,000-vote lead.
And so, but however, it depends on how many votes are left.
There's 22,000 from Washu.
I'm mispronounced that, 7,000 from Douglas and 2,000 from Carson.
Douglas and Carson are more rural.
Look, for Catherine Cortez-Masto, Washoe, thank you, Washoe County.
It's a nail biter.
I'd say I'd probably give, I'll be honest, I don't want to be cynical.
I'm probably going to give the favorite to the Democrat in Nevada just because of the amount of ballots that are out there, because of the nonsense that they do in Clark County.
But it is by no guarantee.
Now, some people say, well, Cortez-Masto is going to win by 4,000 or 5,000.
It all depends on how many ballots are left in Clark County.
We're getting conflicting reports.
My guy in the Laxalt campaign says that there's way lower than 57,000 votes left in Clark County.
It's more like 30,000.
That changes the model significantly.
So it's all going to come down to how many ballots are left.
And look, this is one of the problems with some of these polls that showed Adam Laxalt up three, Adam Laxalt up four.
Democrats flew in a ton of operatives, I guarantee it, that are experts in ballot harvesting.
And they just went door by door.
And they said, you work for the MGM Grand, get us our ballot.
You work for the Venetian, give us your ballot.
You work for this restaurant, give us your ballot.
The culinary unions run Vegas.
This is the legacy of Harry Reid.
It's why they named the airport after him.
Look, Nevada does this every time.
They just see what they need to get it across the finish line.
And magically, all these culinary votes kind of go in.
And look, this is one of the reasons why Blake has an uphill battle when you don't control the recorder's office: it's not even necessary like fake ballots and machines from China or whatever.
It also is the tabulation bias.
So this is a question, Tyler.
I'm told there's 90,000 ballots in adjudication.
Is that right?
Yeah.
Okay.
So that, so that I tweeted out this.
I'm waiting on confirmation on how many ballots right now are being held up in adjudication.
So we're going to go through this.
I'm telling you guys, you guys are going to become very familiar with the word adjudication because this is what I think we're going to end up talking about if we have a close race for Blake and Mark Kelly.
Is that all we're going to be talking about is adjudication through the weekend, through early next week, because every adjudicated ballot is going to end up mattering.
So essentially what happens is ballots can get, and I'll explain it and we'll re-explain this a zillion times.
Ballots that have any issue.
They're crinkled, they have marks, they have random marks, they have mess ups, uh, mess ups with write-ins.
These ballots can all end up in the adjudication pile, meaning that the machines don't scan.
And wouldn't you know it?
We know the machines don't scan very well.
So, so this isn't that misinformation and online rumors.
Nope, I saw it firsthand, Jack.
But no, no, no, I heard on NPR.
No, I saw that.
Hyla Bloy and Charlie Kirk were spreading online rumors about ballot issues in Maricopa County.
We were just talking.
Okay, Jack.
We were just sharing our personal experiences.
Which, by the way, were then backed up by the officials of the Commission.
But literally, Maricopa County Center activities.
Literally came out and said exactly what you that's why it went viral.
Again, whatever.
But these adjudicated ballots, these adjudicated ballots that are bouncing back from these machines, we were, I was told early, and I don't want to spread rumors, but I was told there's over 90,000 of them.
If that's true and accurate, guys, that's a ton.
But is that just in Maricopa?
Maricopa County.
Now, here's what could be the bad news: is that it could come out of those same day drops.
It could have come out of not same-J drops.
Well, what do you mean?
Pre-election day drop.
Oh, you mean they could be worse ballots.
So the question is, is out of that 90K, how many of those were pre-election day drop-offs versus 90,000 in adjudication?
I will tell you, I don't have the historical averages in front of me, but knowing this, since I've been doing this for a long time and I have a brain, yes, that's very high.
It's very high.
At one point, someone said 90K a day.
And then I was like, oh my gosh, we are going to get the election stolen from us.
But the reality is this, is that it looks like the number is 90K that ended up in adjudication.
And a lot of these get figured out, right?
Okay, so that's good to know.
They look at these, they get scanned, they get figured out, they get corrected, and they move them through.
But if that number is still that high, then that's the thing.
So the ask that I made today was, because we can't know what party these are from, because these are just random ballots, right?
What we can do is we can try to figure out where they're from.
So where they're from at least gives us some indication.
Are these downtown Phoenix?
Are these not downtown Phoenix?
Are these that more rural?
Are these more suburban?
Where are they from?
So I asked for a breakdown by legislative district by precinct if we can get it.
We'll see.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com in Nevada.
You got to win Washoo County.
You have to.
And it is, this is what Rich Barris says.
It's highly unlikely, almost impossible to win Nevada without Washoe.
We're trying to see what's left with election day vote because it does look like there may be more in Nye and Elko at least, but I cannot get a straight answer on totals.
First heard about 13,000 election day perhaps left in Nye.
But Election Day in Washoe or male breaking back to Laxalt, which absolutely can happen, looking at the party breakdown is necessary from Rich Barris.
So there's a little bit of hope there.
But man, Clark County.
There you go.
What happens in Clark County, stays in Clark County?
Literally, that is their tagline.
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?
Yeah, no, I know I quote tweeted that, and that was the one that got Election Integrity Partnership.
Very upset with me.
Jack wrote questions about Clark County.
Yeah, I am.
That's right.
I just, I love these people that are in the media that act as if there's not a corrupt person that has ever run an election in the history of the country.
I just think it's in the past, but not current.
It's as if all of our fallen nature just disappears the moment you get into accounting.
That's right.
They're perfect.
Everything is corrupt in America except the Catholic Church is corrupt.
Everything is corrupt.
The evangelical church is corrupt.
Or the hierarchy.
Meanwhile, there's no eyes.
No, york.
There's no eyes on California where things are getting more and more corrupt.
No, but their narrative is that everything is corrupt.
If you step foot in a ballot counting room, you're an angel.
You're a Federalist 51, everybody.
If all men were angels, government would not be necessary.
Boom.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Put that in box three.
Dude, this is a mess.
What was that thing?
Yeah, tell me what she says.
Charlie, do you want to walk through that 62?
Yeah, go ahead.
Tyler has to take an important call.
He'll tell us the content of the call in a second.
What's your act?
You had that breakdown last night of the models you were looking at and the 62% threshold.
You remember that piece?
I wonder if you could walk through us for us, the 62% threshold and what the importance of that is for Kerry and for Blake.
Well, for Kerry, it's less important, right?
So for Kerry, Carrie has, I mean, this is why Carrie's going to be governor.
She has so much flex in these joints.
And it's so obvious who the characteristic of these voters are that Kerry could she could win 52% of remaining ballots and still become governor.
We're modeling anywhere between 68 to 75%.
There's a chance she overperforms the drop-offs, too.
That's in the cards.
And there's a reason why they're holding back these ballots is because I think they want to create a narrative and set in that Mark Kelly is one and no matter what, it's not close and kind of this whole thing.
So you think that this Operation Slow Walk that we're seeing right here actually has more to do though with the Senate seat than the governor.
I think with both.
I also think they want to deprive Carrie Lake of a resounding victory.
Well, they don't want to give her a mandate.
Yeah, they don't want to give her a mandate.
They also don't want her to be able to have a well-publicized television address.
You know, they want her to go on television and say, well, I'm not the governor yet, but I'm 100% going to win.
Like they want to kind of cast.
She should have had her election speech, her victory speech three nights ago.
Yeah, I mean, they're going to kind of cast this mirage of doubt, right?
And so look, we're going to, we're going to see, and by the way, if they were actually processing ballots in real time, if they were processing ballots in real time, Kerry would be up like 90,000 votes and Blake and Mark would be going up and down and up and down and up and down.
And we would sit down and see on election night.
Yeah, instead, they want to kind of bake in this like Mark Kelly's up 100,000 votes and it's kind of just like sticking there.
Meanwhile, there's this huge, I mean, for example, if they counted all 290,000 ballots today, no matter what, Blake would be within like 10,000 votes.
Depriving Carrie Lake Mandate00:16:10
Right.
Right.
That's just, it's just the basic, like the basic.
Well, that's what we had on election night, that it would either be 10,000 up or 10,000 down right there.
The question is Pima and the rurals and all of that.
It's as if they're kind of withholding this surge of votes of the best voters we have in the whole state, the best voters we have in the entire county.
And they're just kind of being like, we hope it's not going to be necessary to add them until we have to add them.
And they'll just be like, whatever.
Okay, Kerry might get across the finish line.
Now, even look, I mean, this is, you watch MSNBC, right, with Steve Kornacki.
He last night was like, look, for all of you guys that are cheering for Katie Hobbs, I just want to talk.
Freudian.
Yeah, exactly.
Very Freudian.
Cheating for Kerry Lean.
Very Freudian.
I got to call you on that one.
Yeah, Freud was wrong about all sorts of stuff.
Very wrong.
But cheering for Katie Hobbs.
Totally demonic, by the way.
Yeah, exactly.
Totally.
And for those that are cheering for Katie Hobbs, just to let you know that these ballots are probably going to make Kerry Lake governor.
Like even Stephen Kornacki is saying it on MSNBC.
And people are like, what do you mean?
You're threatened democracy.
He's like, well, I don't want you guys, because he knows his viewers are not going to be very happy with this.
Yes, he was the number one person.
So some people have a good question, right?
They say, Charlie, how on earth is it that Blake Masters is down 115,000, but Kerry Lake is down 26,000?
And look, that's a good question.
In Arizona, Arizona is not necessarily a baked in red state, but in Arizona, they like their Republican governors.
We do.
And in fact, there is a large portion of the Arizona population that finds comfort in split ticketing.
They like telling their friends that they don't only vote for Republicans and Democrats.
They kind of say, okay, Carrie's going to probably...
Yeah, it also keeps them in their own view.
Maverick, the Federalists.
It keeps them like anchored to moderation as if they're not allowing the excesses of radicalism to take over the country.
There's a lot of that energy in Arizona.
And also, you know, you just have to put it out there.
Carrie Lake has massive name ID in Maricopa County and in Arizona writ large, but she was known how many years?
30 plus years on 30.
And not just that.
She was award-winning.
She was so well respected.
She's the top anchor.
There are, when we were doing our grassroots events, there's people that come up to me and they tell me stories that they grew up like eating cereal at an eight-year-old watching Carrie Lake do the local news.
Wow.
Like they went to bed watching Carrie Lake do specials because she was morning and evening anchor.
She was like a special floating anchor.
So that's something that you can't even quantify that.
You can't buy it.
You can't, you know, and for Blake Masters, who we love Blake, but he was a first-time candidate.
There was a first time.
There was a ton of money spent against him.
A ton of money spent against him.
And that's just facts.
That's just facts.
And so you have all these different things kind of coming together.
And so I actually believe this.
I believe, and by the way, the polling shows this, which is interesting that the polling was actually somewhat accurate.
Yeah.
That there is a 90, there's a 90,000 vote delta.
So as the votes are counted right now, there's 90,000 more people that voted for Mark Kelly, but also voted for Kerry Lake.
And look, we knew that there were going to be Lake Kelly voters, which is when I was giving advice kind of to the top of, you know, the top big picture with Blake.
It's like, you need to run as closely to Kerry as possible.
But you saw Kerry do this.
Well, that's the other thing.
And that's why they're holding back these ballots, these 290,000 ballots, because they were at election day.
Remember, not all ballots, how do I say this without it getting misquoted by Media Matters?
Not all ballots are casted when the same things are happening at the same time.
Is that fair to say?
Well, ballots are cast at different times.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So what I'm saying, though, is that a ballot cast closer to election day is going by definitionally have Blake in a greater light.
After the debate, he had air cover on television.
He was campaigning around with Carrie Lake.
Inflation was crushing people.
Then early ballots, people are like, forget Blake.
We're just going to reelect Mark Kelly.
Right.
So the closer you get to Election Day, the better it is for Blake.
And so Mark Kelly's team knows this.
Katie Hobbs knows this, right?
The Maricopa County recorder knows this, right?
So these are tighter ballots.
And so if you think about it, if you're going to drop off on election day, you didn't fill that out three weeks ago and then be like, yeah, then I'm going to wait.
Now you probably have it on your counter.
And then the night before you fill it out, you kind of go through the props.
That means that those ballots were filled out at a time where Blake was hotter than cooler.
Right.
Right.
Now with Kerry, like Katie Hobbs has no path whatsoever if you look at it.
And Katie Hobbs knows this.
She's looking at these precincts.
She's probably already crying and thinking up an excuse because Kerry Lake with vote by mail already is winning almost every single one of the swing precincts.
And if you go through some of the other swing precincts, she's down like two points here, two points.
She's down as Secretary State, too, right?
Yes.
I mean, look, thankfully.
But that's the other question, right?
Is that amazingly, I did not have this on my bingo card, is that Mark Fincham is actually pulling ahead of Blake Masters.
So Mark Fincham is actually doing 6,000 votes better than Blake Masters.
Okay.
Isn't that interesting?
Well, I mean, Mark Fincham had a lot of media run against him, but it really was Blake Masters that had the paid media that was really dumped on his end without, and we have to say this again, and this goes back to the Marco Rubio tweet, without any response from the outside, from groups outside of the state, from these big money groups outside of the state.
They did not come in the same way they did in like Alaska or some of the other states for Blake Masters.
Yes, that's right.
And so, look, we have a pretty significant population here of people that are going to split ticket.
But as you get closer to election day, the amount of split ticketers decreases dramatically, right?
And so Democrats know this.
Democrats know that this is not a blue state, okay?
So they know that any apparent lead that they have, regardless of the ticket, is going to be evaporated if there's still 500,000 ballots left on the table.
They know that.
So they're doing these selective drops to try to get people to say, oh, wow, well, maybe they have a chance or maybe we can call it early.
And that's when the adjudication thing really comes into play, right?
So if you have tabulation incumbency, if you're able to all of a sudden decide what ballots go into adjudication and the race is artificially closer because you guys are dropping certain ballots in a certain way, then all of a sudden, if you, for example, if you put one out of three ballots into adjudication, nothing's stopping them from doing that.
And is there, do they have the ability to select the location for that?
So for example, and I don't want to get, again, spitballing, brainstorming, and accusing, but do they have the ability to say, we're going to put these ballots in because we think they're more heavily R versus ballots that are more that are more heavily D?
No.
So technically, and this is where we have election judges and poll observers.
Technically, they're only supposed to put it into adjudication if the ballot, if the machine rejects it.
Right.
Okay.
But I mean, what does that mean, right?
I mean, machines are rejecting all sorts of things, right?
Tyler was standing right there.
So are they running through it two or three more times?
Are they trying to fix the machine?
Or is it just rejecting it?
And they're putting these are, this is where all of a sudden there's a huge amount of mystery into how the ballots themselves are counted.
Now, rest assured for Carrie, that's not going to be enough, okay?
So even at the most conservative estimates of the 290,000 ballots that are remaining, the most conservative, okay?
If you say that Kerry Lake is only going to win 58% of them, right?
You could do the math right here in real time, right?
So if you say Kerry Lake is only going, it's not going to happen.
Okay.
So 58% of it, right?
So that's 169,000 ballots, right?
169 for Kerry.
And that means that if it was 290, 130 for Katie Hobbs, okay?
That means that Kerry Lake still takes the lead.
Okay.
So it's just, it's just not going to happen.
She'll be fine.
Yes.
Because you're already starting to see people out there.
Oh, Kerry Lake, big miss.
Trump came in.
Charler Kaye came in.
Poso was the best.
Are they saying that?
I've started to see, not from the big names yet, but you see it out there on Twitter.
You see at these, you know, Kerry Lake all that went in, lost.
I'll FedEx them a invite to Kerry Lake's inauguration.
We'll do it.
And they won't have seats.
They'll have to stand the whole time.
Email us your thoughts, freedom at charliekirk.com.
So look, we also have a fair amount of questions, obviously, still coming in with Nevada, the great state of Nevada.
And so let's go here.
He says, look, Rich Barris says, I'm not going to hope for election day.
He says this.
That would just be gravy.
I'm really hoping Laxalt wins the last election day mail drop by the margin he won it by one drop.
Independence broke for him and it netted him nearly 1,000 in 1.4,000.
It was a crazy margin.
Tyler, what do you have to share with us?
Everybody's feeling good.
Good times, Mike.
Thanks.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Everyone's feeling good.
Carrie Lake is marching to Veterans Day parade today.
So, you know, she's the, she's going to be our next governor and things are just looking great.
I mean, I'll tell you, like when we break down these numbers again, and we didn't really get into the numbers and we're going to get more fiercely into them tonight, depending upon what drops happen today.
Because look, every single one of these drops that happens, the closer we get to, I mean, we get into Nevada territory, like you're talking about, which is like every single vote and single percentage for Blake.
Especially for Blake, but even for Kerry, you know, and so, I mean, things are looking great for Kerry.
These Maricopa Day of drops, if they mimic what Trump got, just that what Trump got, she's going to win convincingly.
If they're above that, which is where she was trending, she was trending like 10 points above Trump on election day.
She really was.
I want everyone to understand this.
Carrie Lake is a special, special human being.
She is well loved.
She's really well liked.
She's nowhere near disliked.
And we looked at the map last night with Charlie, and she's winning in many places that Trump did not win.
That's right.
It's possible she gets 70 plus percent of these drops, Tyler.
I actually just have breaking news.
What?
So I just have the data.
It's breaking news within Geek World here.
I just have the data that's polled.
Of four or four Republican voters, Republicans that vote all the time, there are 351,000 of those people left that still have not voted and recorded a vote in Arizona.
How do we know that?
We have the data.
But how do you know who's voted and hasn't voted?
Because the data exists.
It's public.
Wait, there's 351,000 four out of four that have not yet voted in Arizona.
That's 71% of the remaining Dallas are left.
That's the best news you're going to get all day.
Can you please reiterate that news?
That's rather heartwarming.
Let me actually make sure what time this was.
This was yesterday, actually.
So this could have been whittled down slightly.
But as of yesterday, just before the Maricopa County drop, 351,000, what we call it, Republican Party in the bank votes had not yet been cast in Arizona.
No, no, not yet been tabulated.
Tabulated or cast.
Meaning, like they haven't been reported, recorded.
Meaning that these are four or four Republican voters, your go-to voters.
Now, not everybody votes.
What's a four or four voter?
A four or four voter will let you down sometimes.
There's a percentage of that, right?
But four or four voters.
What does it mean with that?
They voted four times out of the last four elections and they're registered Republican.
So that's like a super wireless vote.
It doesn't count independents like me that don't like the Republican Party.
No, but these are domestically voted for these are like your core.
These are your core voters.
These are your core Republican voters.
351,000 yesterday had not yet voted.
As of yesterday.
As of yesterday, there were 500 and some odd thousand votes.
Folks, that's why we say no black pills in the Charlie Kirk stream.
I mean, there's no black pills straight up here whatsoever.
That doesn't necessarily mean there's white pills, but it's facts, math, and models.
It's math and models, baby.
That's a really good sign, Tyler.
Yeah, I mean, look, even if it's like, let's say in that drop, because we know it wasn't great, let's say 20,000 dropped from that.
That's 330,000.
330,000.
That's at least 67% of the.
So out of all of the remaining votes that have yet to be cast.
All of a sudden, everything's starting to make sense.
Out of all the remaining votes that have yet to be cast.
This is why, like, we guys, yeah, exactly.
White pill.
All right.
Like, fuck up.
Wake up, Buttercup.
Like, things are great.
Things are great for Carrie.
Like, if you're Carrie Lake, you're, you're, you're, you're marching in parade.
Start planning.
You're marching in for marching in parade.
You're marching to parade.
Go plan your inauguration.
There's 492 or some odd thousand ballots left estimated in Arizona.
492,000 ballots.
300, and again, we're being super cautious here.
330,000 or more have not yet been cast.
Of your, of your best votes.
Now, not every single one of those people are going to vote, guys, right?
But like, that's like, that's like in the bank.
You're probably banking 60% of this no matter what you do.
So there's 351,000, I'm told, but some of that might have been part of the drop, right?
I'm going to find out how many dim in the bank.
Well, that's, I mean, there's only 470,000 votes left, right?
That's like a no, because there's still independence in it, too.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Oh, but you're saying they haven't voted, but they might not have turned out, is what you're saying.
Yeah, okay, they also may not have turned out for some reason, right?
Yeah, but they did because they went home because the polls were four hours long.
I see, so still a good sign.
So, what you're saying, though, is that based on voter data, it shows as if they have not registered a vote yet in the system.
Yeah, so as of yesterday, before the Maricopa County drop, like 351,404 Republicans had not yet voted in Arizona, which that's a really high number.
Well, that means that all of our theories, all of our data, all of our anecdotes, all of our projections, all of our precinct modeling is correct.
That group usually on a midterm will show up 80% of the time, probably would be my guess.
I don't know.
I don't have the exact numbers from you, but I'm just guessing.
So, if you've that's at least at least 280,000 votes are like solidly ours, like right off the bat.
So, that out of how many?
So, that puts us like out of 427.
I think we're 490-something here.
Okay, so that's yeah, it's 57% before we even get to independence, and we're winning independence two to one.
Yeah, so 57% is almost like if I had to guess, like if you said, Charlie, like jar of jelly beans on the you think we're gonna win 70% of remaining votes.
I mean, that number, if we're correct, the 80% of that remaining total number turns out of 351, uh, four or four Republicans turned out.
Well, let's test it.
How do you, how do you see if your vote has been tabulated online?
What's the process?
Uh, you can go to the Maricopa County Recorders website.
And then, what do you do once you're there?
Uh, you can put it in, it tells you your vote status.
And they actually do this by text message as well.
Okay, so hey, this: if you're looking, if you're watching from Arizona, if your vote has not been tabulated yet, email me freedom at charliekirk.com if your vote has not been counted yet.
Let's test our premise, right?
I love this.
You're using the emails as a collection operation.
You're collecting inflation.
Let's test our premise, right?
Right.
So, email me freedom at charliekirk.com.
So, um, well, what will tell us here is how many DIMS in the bank, what we call them DIM in the bank.
Oh, we have GOP in the bank and Dem in the bank, means like they're four or four voters.
So, if their four or four vote total is high as well, um, as a percentage, then that may not be as great.
But, like, I mean, let's let's crunch numbers here.
I mean, this is what we're doing here today, guys.
While we're waiting around for little Bill Gates to get to work, um, I think he's punching out over at his other job.
Testing Dem Bank Premise00:04:16
We won't, we won't name names where he has.
He's swinging for the future.
Yeah, by the way, Carrie Lake won 72% of in-person election day voters.
Yeah, yeah, which is- Well, by the way, drawer three might be 90,000 votes, is what we're being told now.
Who told that?
Who said that?
That's uh 90, I think we said 17.
Both Colton and Blake are now saying that I don't, I don't think.
No, that actually makes sense with turnout projections, though.
That would that would complete our final model.
I think they're getting confused with the adjudication again.
I'm not questioning anybody in the chat, guys.
No, but I'm the chat, our chat friends, guys.
We have a lot of person that gets this data.
Well, yes, but there's you're also hosting a show, too.
Are you questioning that, Tyler?
I'm on the all right.
Look, here we go.
Charlie Kirk, uh, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Robert, vote not counted yet.
Dale, Queen Creek, my vote not counted yet.
Casey, vote not yet, tabulated.
Trisha, vote not yet counted.
Tony, vote not yet counted.
Grace, vote yet not counted.
They're coming in like wow.
And these are our four out of fours.
Keep emailing us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
I'm going to say, if you're listening to this show right now, you're probably a four or four.
I'm five out of four.
I'm five out of four.
Yeah, exactly.
I'm chasing Every rumor that comes through this show, I'm going to chase down and I'm going to nip right in the butt.
Robert, not counted yet.
Emma, not counted yet.
Lee, not counted yet.
And if you spread lies, we will call you out.
Charlie, you're like a ninja with that.
In the chat, we'll call you out.
We will.
We will.
Because there's no black bills in the chat.
Colton, I won't name it.
Geez, people are like, there's just so much.
Colton was on the other night.
He was right here.
He's not listening right now.
Oh, he's not.
How do you know?
I'm now messaging in all caps.
I'm done.
I mean, the thing to remember.
Charlie has moved to all caps exclusively.
No black bills.
Charlie is in all caps.
I'm no longer in lower caps.
He's no longer in lowercase.
Yeah.
By the way, Tyler, does that mean, does four out of fours mean they also voted in the primary?
You mean four out of four general midterms?
Four or four, I believe that number is the last four elections.
So does that count primaries?
It counts primaries.
No, no, not primaries.
Okay, got it.
All right.
Okay.
Yeah, it's the last four elections.
So, so.
Look how many, oh my goodness, how many people not yet counted?
Holy moly.
There's hundreds of these coming in.
Yeah, just listening to our show.
That's what I'm saying.
This listening to Charlotte Kirk show.
But these are your four out of four, five out of four is what I'm saying.
I'm getting a tabulation on what percentage was remaining of the Dem in the bank.
And remember, Democrats were not as excited to turn out as we were.
So I'm not as convinced by that number.
But if that number is hanging in that 20, 20 percentile range, that's good for us because we can kind of start to estimate, yeah, do we have 50% of our ballots straight up?
404s are still yet left to be counted.
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How is that number increased?
No, Maricopa has increased.
Yeah, there's more votes found in Maricopa County.
Mine was the math that I deducted from the original poll.
There's 518,000 votes left to count in the state of Arizona.
More in Maricopa County.
Vote Center Verification00:16:08
I tend to believe that's good for us, actually.
Yeah, by the way, since I asked the question, there's at least 1,500 people that have emailed us saying their vote has not yet been counted.
Gina's joining in right now.
Oh, she is?
Wonderful.
Great.
Tell us when she's in.
I'm texting her.
I just tried calling her.
Gina is the.
She is the election guru.
She's one of the smartest election observers and knowing what she's talking about with election operations and procedures in the country.
It's not even close.
Yeah, this is, I've been very impressed by her.
I'm trying to get her to think about running for office here.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and tell us exactly when she's in.
So look, another really smart data guy that's listening says, Charlie, I think you guys are underestimating the percentage of Lake and Master voters after the chaos of 2020 drop-offs will be a higher percentage of GOP than 2020 by DC.
I'm not disagreeing.
Not disagreeing.
I think that's exactly right.
Yeah, 2020, it should go up.
Not just go up.
I mean, we should crush them.
No, that's been the entire premise.
That's been the premise.
And this is why like Twitter's crazy, like all these Democrat Twitter.
Are we not explaining it properly?
Is something not getting acquainted?
We're staying this way.
No, because here's why.
There is no other state in the country where the longer it goes, the rather it goes.
That's right.
There is, it's just, people have this like built in.
So like, look at the ability people.
The value is getting lower.
It's abused people.
No, we're abused people here.
So like we're like, we have like PTSD from like previous election.
They all of a sudden found ballots.
Like we like literally we're abused here in Arizona.
And this is the reason.
No, but this is the reason why we're abused.
Like look what they're balloting the ballots.
They're like sickly dropping like the worst drops like they could possibly do, like trying to control the media narrative, like coordinating with the media.
Like Bill Gates is like, little Bill Gates is like, like has New York Times a speed dial.
He's like, get this last one.
We got to play the, we got to play Bill Gates again.
What cut is Bill Gates?
We got to do it.
We got to do it.
What is this?
So embarrassing.
All right.
You'll have it up in 30 seconds.
Thank you.
Yeah.
It's just, we got to know who's in charge of this whole thing.
Oh my gosh.
Yeah, it's 210 once you guys have it.
I hope all his family at Thanksgiving like doesn't give him a huge drink.
All right.
Onesie Twosies playtape.
When do you anticipate the votes will be counted in total, those 400,000 plus votes?
Well, we have, we will be going into next week.
There's some onesie twosies, again, pursuant to Arizona law, but I think that we'll see the lion's share here wrap up by early next week.
Early next week, can you give me a day?
We're talking Monday or we may be.
As long as you don't hold me accountable.
All right.
Okay.
We got Gina Sabota here.
Gina, welcome to the program, Carrie Lake campaign.
Hey, she's been crunching numbers.
I have a question for Gina first.
Gina, you are an elections professional.
You've done procedures for a long time.
Can you tell me what the scientific explanation for the term onesies, twosies is?
The legal definition, please.
I am covering my ass because I'm an incompetent election administrator.
Something like that.
Something like that.
Yeah.
Okay.
So, Gina, you have some breaking news.
You discovered, is it correct, that 351,000, four out of four top-level Republicans have not had their vote tabulated yet?
Is that correct?
That's correct.
What Maracopa's update from our observers and our legal team this morning was that that gigantic group of late earlies, those drop-offs, they've finished signature verification, but they have not yet begun to tabulate them.
They're still finishing tabulating the 17,000 that were in door three because of their printer issues where they failed to properly allow people the opportunity to vote on site.
They finished almost 5,000 of those yesterday.
And now, even though those are tabulated, because there are random, unknown, potentially onesie twosie numbers that had to go to adjudication, they're holding the results for the whole batch until the adjudication is done.
They have to do that.
And we want them to do that because as we learned in the audit process, when they didn't do that in 2020, we could not reconcile what was adjudicated and what was not.
It's a good thing that they're doing it.
It's a bad thing that they continue to refuse to work through the night to give the people the results of this election.
Okay, so really quick, we only have a minute remaining, and we're going to welcome back our radio audience, Gina.
Adjudication, people are worried.
How many ballots are currently in adjudication?
And what does that mean?
So they're not giving us the number.
And we've asked the legal team to get a number from them today.
Adjudication is when some team of a Republican and a Democrat are going to look at your ballot and try to determine what you meant to do when you cast that vote.
The less ballots that go to adjudication, the better it is for us.
The reports I'm getting is that a lot of them are a result of the judge races in Maricopa County.
We had a large judicial retention, but there's room for mischief when things go into adjudication.
So we're working on that number.
We're going to get that for you sometime today.
So really quick, Gina, yes or no?
Does four out of four include voting in the primary?
Yes.
Oh, wow.
So you're trying to tell me 350,000 people that voted in the August primary haven't had their vote tabulated yet?
Yes.
Oh, this thing's about to get real interesting.
So Gina, what you're telling me is that you've discovered that 351,000 people that are four out of four voters that include voted in the primary in August, which means they're very high propensity Republicans, have not even had their vote tabulated yet.
How did you find that number?
So Maricopa County gave us a readout this morning via our legal observers that the 292,000 election day drop-offs have completed signature verification, but have not yet begun to go to adjudication.
So that's group one.
Then you have the 12,000 of the 17,000 that were in door three that have started to be tabulated today.
So that gets you to 300,000.
Then the next group of ballots that we have where there's a discrepancy as to whether or not they've completed tabulated is the 30 to 40 some odd thousand that were cast under what we call an emergency provision.
Those were the de facto extension of early.
These people voted on Saturday or Monday.
So the part of the issue is that Maricopa County is doing a lot of communicating, but they're not communicating clearly about where these ballots are in these buckets of the process.
So we have two observers in there that are both lawyers in one part of the facility, and they're getting different answers when they're asking this question, you know, which would lead one to believe that it's possible that this whole 50,000 batch hasn't even begun and that's going to take us up to about 345.
Yeah, so but how do you know they're four out of four voters just through voter data?
Basically, are you able to see publicly whether or not their vote has been counted?
Is that right?
Well, yeah, it's the estimate of the people that we think that were in there on that day.
It's the result of the EV33 report that's issued by Maricopa County that tells us who are the people that we have a record that their ballot came back, right?
So you look at the party breakdown of the record of the people whose ballot came back and that should give you an idea if they're three by fours or four by fours.
So generally, these are the high propensity voters.
These are the people that went in by and large of the 292,000.
These are the people that went in on election day or dropped it on election day because they wanted to make absolutely sure that their vote counted.
And in fact, the reason that number is so high is because people went to vote in person.
It was a complete and total show, if I may.
All right.
So they went back to their car.
They got the mail ballot out of the car and then they dropped it because they needed to make absolutely sure that their ballot counted and they were deprived of the right to vote in person because of the total epic failure of the Maricopa County administration.
Tyler.
Gina, there's a rumor going around that box three may not just be 17,000 votes in Maricopa County.
Are you seeing or hearing any updated information on if there's more than 17,000 that are being tabulated?
Yes.
So the elections director in Maricopa County confirmed last night that there were more than two vote centers that had an issue where at the end of the night, part of the poll worker breakdown process is they pull all the ballots out of the tabulator bins and they bag them.
And when they pulled them out, they pulled out the separator that keeps the tabulated ballots on one side and the door three ballots on the other side.
So, if those got commingled together, and it's our understanding that they got commingled together in more than two vote center locations, that would mean that we have ballots that didn't get counted when they said how many went into door three and later began the process of sending them to tabulation.
So, yes, I believe there are potentially more than potentially a lot more, but there are more than 17 votes.
Gina, what two polling centers were those?
What two vote centers were those?
Do you know the locations?
They haven't given it to us yet.
No, and there are more than two.
Do you think those were in good areas for us or bad areas for us?
I do not know, but either way, the election day voters were ours, even in areas that might not have been generally leaning our way.
There were a large proportion of people that have had enough of Biden administration policies that were pulling the ticket for our party.
The Americopa County, I want to reiterate this: the Maricopa County Elections Director, Scott Jarrett, confirmed to you that multiple vote centers had a massive amount of ballots that were collected and mixed in together that have yet to be tabulated.
And we don't know what that outstanding number looks like yet.
It's correct that he reported it to one of our people that are on site yesterday.
He didn't report it directly to me.
And yes, that statement is accurate.
So it looks like that there could be a significant addition.
I mean, do you know what the average amount of vote center ballots were cast?
I mean, could you just give us a roundabout idea of how many votes were cast or dropped off at each individual?
Yeah, that's rough without knowing where they are because there were some vote centers that vote centers that had 1,700 voters.
So that's a disparate number.
But safe to say that we have more than 17,000 votes that should be counted in door three, of which they've still only managed to get through 4,600 of the original 17,000.
And they're talking about engaging in a process where they do some kind of internal attempt at reconciliation so that they can look at the data cards.
The reads they're getting on the data cards in those locations aren't matching the number of ballots they have because these ballots got mixed together.
So to my mind, the easiest way to ensure that every ballot got counted is just to retabulate every ballot that came in to that vote center.
Yeah, how would we know if they're just in bags?
Well, that's well, they're bagged and tagged and labeled by the vote center that they came in.
So there's supposed to be a sheet in there that tells you what location that they're from.
So we can tell the difference between check-ins and votes that are yet to be tabulated for that vote center, correct?
They already did a hand count verification of certain vote centers.
Was the hand count verification done in one of these vote centers?
We don't know because we don't know which vote centers they are because they haven't told us.
So we have our observer.
Yeah, we have our observer reports.
We had observers in the field that told us for at least two where they are.
So we're pulling that data now.
But where the other ones are, you know, I don't know.
We've reached out to all of the observer coordinators to make sure that throughout all of Maricopa County, all our data is on one sheet.
And we should know within the next couple of hours after looking at all our data where we think they are.
And then we're reaching out to get them to try to tell us what they, I mean, their plan is not clear to us and they're not being transparent, as you know, in any way.
What percentage of ballots left in Pima County are late earlies versus election day drop-offs?
So it looks like, according to what Gabby said this morning, that she was conflating, it was not that there were 103,000 late early drop-offs.
It's really about 50,000 late, early drop-offs and then 44 or 45,000 that came in for that Friday, Saturday, Monday.
So it's about 50,000 late earlies.
So 50,000 drops, is that right?
Correct.
So those should favor us probably 55 to 57%, maybe even more, right?
Yeah, correct.
55 to 47, to 5 to 58.
We looked at that in the last drop and we won those.
Got it.
So, and then those late earlies in Pima shouldn't be as bad as some of the prior earlies.
Is that right?
Yes, yes.
Those are not our majority voters.
Yeah.
So if you blend that all together, there's a chance that Carrie or Blake get 51, 52% of the remaining votes in Pima County.
Is that right?
Yep.
Yes.
Which is great.
That means that Katie Hobbs has no, she really has no county.
She has no path if that's the case.
Yep.
No matter what, period.
Exactly.
Signed, sealed, and delivered.
So is there a chance, Gina, for Blake's, for Blake's case, that these remaining drops in Maricopa are overwhelmingly positive?
We're talking 69, 70, 71, 72%.
Is that in the cards?
Not today, because the drop we're going to get today is probably going to be some of those Friday, Saturday, Monday, and only about 4,600 of door three.
So we're not going to see a true and accurate estimation of what happens today.
So tonight, we don't get any late, we don't get any election day drop-offs today?
We do not.
Are you kidding me?
No, that's, I mean, that's the readout I got this morning is that they completed the signature verification, but they have yet to start tabulating those because they're still trying to tabulate the remaining 12,000 of the door three, then the 12,000 of the door three that then have to go to adjudication, and then they will begin to tabulate the late earlies.
So if we're still working our way through this adjudication shoots and ladders game, and they need to hold the whole batch, then that means that our 12,000 that get through tabulation from door three need to go through adjudication, and then those will come out the other end of the reporting.
That needs to happen before the late earlies of the 292,000 go to tabulation.
If even one of them's got an adjudicated ballot in it, then those 200 ballot batches have to be held and go through adjudication.
Yep.
So I do not expect if they do not agree to work through the night that we're going to get to see any of that.
It'll probably be late tomorrow.
Gina, thank you so much for your time.
We really appreciate it.
We're going to have you back on tonight.
Okay.
Thank you so much.
Thank you.
God bless.
Appreciate it.
Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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What are we thinking about here, Jack?
Ballpark Voter Estimates00:05:24
I just look at some of these memes that are coming in and I look at some of these jokes about Maricopa County, the fact that you can't even actually get a solid number on how many votes were cast at this point.
You don't even know how many votes were out.
You can't tell what's going on.
We're literally in a hostage situation with like a gun to our heads about where we're just stuck here.
We're literally just stuck here waiting on these goblins to dance around.
And we don't even know if, by the way, if we're getting batches today, we don't know if we're getting batches tomorrow.
They say they're going to work through the weekend.
They've said that, but we have no clue when anything's actually getting released.
This is like, you can order food off of a piece of glass in your hand in 2022.
I can make food up here at the front door.
And yet these ballots, they take break.
Tyler, you have some party breakdown.
Is that right?
That you've been sharing?
Can you share that publicly?
Yeah, this is we're going to put out.
We actually just wanted to get it right.
So we actually pulled out a tweet off of Charlie's Twitter that didn't have the exact language right, but we'll start with that.
We want to be super specific.
Because these things are changing in real time.
Yeah, we want to just make sure we get it right because it's different about yesterday at noon versus the day of the election.
But heading into election day, what we do know is this, that on election day, 46% of Republican likely voters, and this is the 404 thing that we're talking about.
We're going to call them likelies, right?
Republican likely voters were still outstanding.
That's awesome.
That means like almost half of our voters had not yet voted.
Democrats had 31% outstanding, and we know that Democrats show up at a much lower pace.
And so this is part of the reason why you're seeing the slaughter fest on election day.
And this should warm everybody's heart, regardless of that 351,000 number.
And this is what the question is: okay, is there 351,000 left?
Is it 351,000 left today?
I'm going to get to the brass tacks on that.
What we do know is heading into election day, 46% had not yet voted.
So that's.
So 46% of our four out of fours.
So let's just call, let's look at Maricopa County.
248,000 people voted.
That's like half the ballots.
We know that more than half actually were dropped off.
290.
Let's just say.
Or actually, it was 310.
So that means that we probably still have 20, you know, somewhere in the ballpark in the 20s, in the 20s, of how many voters we still have left yet to tabulate.
What does that mean?
What's that number mean?
It's a lot.
It's a significant number.
It's 270 to 325,000, probably.
Yeah, our total in the bank number heading in was, I think, was somewhere in that ballpark.
So I think we hit it, though.
So we know in the bank in Maricopa County, likely and across the state, or somewhere probably in the ballpark of 200,000 votes for sure that we can count on.
For Kerry Lake.
For Kerry and Blake.
And that's just remaining.
Yeah, these are four or four Republican votes.
You're trying to tell me so that 200 out of the 290,000 are like assured votes.
That's without independence breaking our way.
That's wild.
Yeah.
I mean, the reality is this, is that if we get independent breaks at that level and we have that many outstanding votes, there's a really solid chance that Blake has a pathway.
I mean, you're talking about winning 75% of these drops potentially.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, before that.
That's not what the model looked like.
That is not what the model looked like for Trump in 2020.
But everything's changed since 2020.
Because of the mules and all of that stuff.
Yeah, but if you asked me to put like my children's life savings on it, you know, we're saying it's possible.
We're saying it's possible.
They don't have very much, but so I want to be, I would be willing to take that risk.
But yeah, I would tell you that I think that we're going to have some breakage.
Blake needs to have probably like a 2% breakage in order to win.
If he has more than that, then it's going to be tough.
And that's a tight window.
I want to say this.
Dave Wasserman, he might be right.
He could not.
I mean, let's just.
I was just going to bring that up.
But let's be honest.
Dave Wasserman, he's just guessing.
And honestly, he's making an educated guess.
I actually think he's a super smart guy and very fair, but I think he jumped the gun here.
He ended up might being right.
I'm not saying, oh, he's going to end up being wrong and eating his words, but that's not necessarily true.
But here's the thing: what Tyler and what you have put together is a deep understanding of the systemic destruction of the Arizona voting system and the reconfiguration into this monstrosity of a situation that they have now, particularly in Maricopa County, but also across the state.
And if you don't understand that, if you don't actually have that on-the-ground understanding of how much elections have changed here just in the past four years, then you know, you might, you might have your ear all a little bit off the ground.
One of our team members said something so interesting.
He says, This whole thing is so weird.
There's no prior case of a major political actor encouraging the specific behavior of dropping off a mail-in ballot on election day and then altering projects.
It's true, right?
This is why I think everyone is so confused.
Well, this is giving me a lot of people.
Anti-Government Population Trend00:14:59
I remember when I heard it the first time, when I heard you say it, Charlie, and I was like, why would you do this?
I hate to take credit for this, but I'm probably to blame for like 50,000 of these people.
Right.
And like, and like, people heard about it from you, and then they started doing yeah, I know.
Remember, people were telling, like, no, tell them to vote at the polling place.
Then we changed when I showed up to vote.
There was at least 10 people that I feel like I'm nothing.
They said, Charlie, I'm voting the way you told me to.
Like, oh, boy, I hope this is a good idea.
So, so I mean, I'm going to tell you this right now: is this bringing me nightmares?
This is bringing back reminiscent nightmares.
Flashbacks, flashbacks.
Because this was what happened.
The day that they start counting actually these ballots, people start freaking out because they're like, it says online that my vote was counted.
It says it wasn't counted.
Like, it was bad.
I mean, I remember the system didn't work.
The system's, I mean, to some credit at the recorder's office, the system's better than it was in 2020 because it was a disaster last time because none of it made sense.
But now, like, I'm already getting messages.
They're like, it says my vote was counted.
And they haven't released any of the counted votes from their drop-offs that day.
So I just had a close friend who checked his wife's ballot status.
His wife shows that her vote was tabulated and counted.
With where?
From drop-off on election day.
It's already showed her vote tabulated and counted.
So now here's the question.
They've said they haven't even touched those ballots yet, but they said they haven't tabulated those ballots.
Oh my gosh.
No, this is that reporting system versus these batches.
I don't, and I'm just going to put this out there.
It wouldn't surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and if that data wasn't completely accurate.
It might be accurate a week from now, a month from now, but in real time, it would not surprise me if those systems were not talking to each other and that those numbers that we're talking about that you guys are modeling aren't necessarily reflective of when you go and look up your personal ballot.
I'm just saying.
And yeah, I mean, so what is happening in box three is the question, right?
Door three, box three.
No one knows.
No one knows.
Door three.
Yeah.
It puts the ballots in door three or it gets the hose again.
That's right.
Yeah.
So this is the ongoing question.
Any updates out of Nevada?
These things are happening so quickly in Nevada.
Nevada is an equal Nevada in some ways is a much more well it's all about Washaw County.
Oh man.
So is it really?
It's it really and Clark, but Washaw either needs to win.
He's down five points there.
5,000 votes.
Either needs to win or come very, very close.
It would be much easier path if he wins Washaw.
Is that Reno?
Is that right?
Is that Reno?
Yeah, that's the North.
That's Reno.
But it is winnable for Republicans.
Yeah.
Whereas Clark County.
I thought he would run off the score up there, man.
Those people have been getting crushed.
You have to win mailman, vote by mail.
Yeah, you have to win him.
There's a new machine in town.
So you basically have to win every county and lose Clark by less to win in Nevada.
Yes.
Yeah.
Really, Nevada, the old way of Nevada, Nevada was like a smaller version of us, which was that you kind of had to just win Clark County just barely to win.
And, you know, you can probably get away with it.
But this is the reason why Nevada's been going so blue is because it's so hard to win Clark County.
It's just interesting on the DeSantis Trump intrigue.
I'm going to read this on air.
I say this is a Trump supporter.
This is one of our top donors who's given us seven figures plus.
I am now in the Never Trump camp.
Let that set in.
I've gone there and it will swell in for millions because I supported him 100% and enthusiastically.
His comments about Yunkin and DeSantis this morning are over the top.
He needs to be stopped.
What do you think, Jack?
I'm not there.
I'm just saying, I'm just reading it from a donor.
I've heard that sentiment.
I've definitely heard that sentiment from media, conservative media, donors, consultants.
I've heard the sentiment.
I have.
So here's a cool sign.
I'm also not there.
This guy in Pinal County says, my walk-in box of my precinct was full.
My ballot has been marked as received, but not counted in Pinal County, strong red area.
He said that the drop box was overflowing.
That's a good sign.
Really good sign.
email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
This whole thing is a mass like torture operation of us.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Welcome back, everybody.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Yeah, also, I mean, look, I'm not saying in any ways that I believe that.
I just found that so striking because, I mean, you got to be honest, when someone who is a seven-figure contributor to conservative causes a year, you got to pay attention, right?
You have to listen to it and say, okay, we're testing the metal.
I mean, look, I just got a text from a top pastor in North Carolina.
So sick of this crap.
I love Trump.
Right now, super polarizing.
It's turning people off.
Can you help me understand this?
I think the mean huge pastor in North Carolina.
I think the mean tweets have turned into mean truths at this point.
So I think 2015, 2016, it was exactly like this.
It was exactly like this going into the primary season.
I remember it.
I remember Lomarco and all of it.
So to me, it looks like I'm just going with what I said the other day.
On election day, I said, and this is my analysis.
Nothing I'm descriptive, not normative.
I said, I think we're looking at another 2016-style primary.
And I think that there are a lot of people who are either chomping at the bit to announce or a lot of campaigns that are being sort of draft certain people to run.
And not just DeSantis, but other candidates out there, obviously.
Nikki Haley.
I think Nikki Haley, the fact that she's putting out these tweets with Herschel Walker, Ted Cruz going out with Herschel Walker.
And by the way, God bless him for going out there with Herschel Walker.
But you can't ask me to say that doesn't obviously mean trying to lay the groundwork for a potential primary run.
And so what I think he's doing is sizing up the field.
And he's saying, look, I know there's been talk about DeSantis.
I know there's been talk about Yunkin.
And so he's getting the ball off.
You know, really interesting, Tyler.
I'm actually going to go look at the Pima County precincts to go see which precincts have held back their ballots.
That'd be really interesting.
If like Oro Valley and all those other, like Dove Mountain, those should be conservative precincts in Tucson, right?
Yeah, I mean, you can look at it.
I don't know the landscape as well.
I'm going to be honest with you.
Tucson's such a disaster down there.
Approximating, though, but we need Blake needs to have a hometown boy love of like 55, 56 there.
There's a good sign in Tucson and Pima County.
I'll tell you what that is.
So, LD 17, the new LD 17, legislative district 17, legislative district 17, Foster Freeze, Foster Freeze, yeah, legislative district 17.
Uh, Justine Wadsak down there just upset in a big way an establishment guy named Vince Leach, and that is in a uh the outskirts of Tucson and Pima County, and she was under going into election day, she was losing going into election day, and early votes came back and she and she sprung up.
So, if we use this equation that half the voters voted at the polls, half the voters dropped off ballots, that means she's going to spring up again quite a bit more.
And I'm looking at the numbers, Charlie, here, and I mean, she was losing, they were losing pretty considerably going into election night by thousands of votes.
And now, Justine Wadstack, I mean, she's for sure going to be a state senator, it's not a question at this point.
But the question that we're looking at is using this is like, okay, well, what happened?
And if half the votes got cast in person and then another half the votes are coming, what does that mean?
And for Justine, what that means is, I mean, I'm pretty sure she got thousands of votes that night.
I'm looking at it right now.
The answer to that question is yes, she ended up getting probably more than 10% of her votes, 15% of her votes.
So, if that's any isolation to look at, there's a good chance that Pima County still has a really good amount of Republican votes.
Huge, I know there is.
Look, I mean, I'm looking at the Tucson suburbs and these kind of upper, these, let's just say, high-mountain suburbs right here: Dove Mountain, you know, kind of right near higher net worth, if you will, Oro Valley.
There's actually like a Ritz Carlton up there, they're all within striking distance, Blake and Kerry, in the kind of northern suburbs of Tucson, which goes to show.
And by the way, the vote totals are super low in some of these, which goes to show a lot of, like, look at this one precinct up here has 322 recorded votes.
Now, it could just be a small precinct, but all precincts are not created equal here, but yeah, but that's low.
I mean, I don't care what precinct you're in, 322 is low.
It just depends on the precinct.
But this is not all going to be blue.
This is not possible.
Well, you wouldn't think so.
Not with a trend we're seeing.
I don't know Tucson well enough, and I do know that Tucson's weird, and it should be part of Mexico probably still.
But I will say this: there is a good chance that it's not as bad.
It won't be a bloodbath in Tucson like they think it will be.
I think it's actually we're going to gain in Tucson, if not at the worst case scenario, just be net neutral, which is exactly what you need.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
I'm going to talk about an election trend that I didn't see manifest, which is whether people want to admit it or not, there's a 5% to 10% population out there, only about 5% or 10%, especially in Arizona, especially in Georgia, especially in Tennessee, that are really anti-government types.
They're libertarians, and they got really animated by the raid on Mar-a-Lago, weaponization of DOJ.
Do you think we did a good enough job mobilizing the small government libertarian types behind our candidates?
Because these are guys that they believe in no firearm laws.
You know the type, right, Tyler?
No, and by the way, I can show you this because walk us through it.
Go look.
I don't even need to walk you through anything.
Go look at the vote totals for the libertarian candidates in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and I think Michigan had some.
I'm not sure if Alaska did or not.
So, double-check me on that.
But there's a number of states where, and it wasn't always the margin of difference, by the way, the margin of victory, but it is sizable numbers that I think the GOP certainly, the GOP.
Everyone knows Dr. Oz wasn't my number one candidate.
Did you ever hear him talk about guns?
Did you ever hear him talk about any of these issues that would appeal to libertarians?
Yeah, there's like this.
So I think this is actually one of the sparks in the magic of 2010 energy, right, Tyler?
Yep.
Is that the country was far more just like generally anti-government overreach, Obamacare.
They were sick of it.
But one of the sparks of magic in 2010 was that extra 5% to 10%.
And I'm not one of these people, but I do sympathize with some of them on guns and on civil liberties and on mass surveillance, stuff like that, right?
Yeah, I mean, you'll sort of Ron Paul was right on how much.
But that's not a small, that's not a small group of people, right?
No, it's a huge group of people.
In fact, some of the biggest, you go on social media, libertarians have massive, massive followings.
Yeah.
So you take Arizona.
Did Dave Smith?
I think Blake did the best job of this.
He attempted to, that stupid libertarian candidate.
Blake actually comes from a more libertarian tradition.
He comes more from that world a little bit more.
I think he followed a path that a lot of people did, sort of going through their a lot of, and Blake's a millennial, by the way, we were talking about millennial Blake's breaks.
That's my freaking flip of the day.
And that a lot of millennials went through this fiercely anti-government stage or a severely pro-government stage, depending on which ID fell of the Occupy Wall Street movement and the financial crisis.
And you either went super anti-government or super pro-government.
And then during the Trump years, kind of had this reawakening of an understanding of, well, you know, okay, we do need a government, and it's really more about who's in control of that government.
We got an email here from somebody.
Charlie, why the hell would you want to run a loser like Trump when you have a young dynamic winner in Ron DeSantis?
First of all, how could you say he's a loser when he was president?
Okay.
I always laugh.
It's like this guy's been in the Oval Office.
He won an election and he probably won 2020 if it wasn't for the interference.
Okay.
DeSantis would steamroll any Democrat in 2024.
Trump will lose again.
Why the hell aren't you backing DeSantis?
First of all, I'm a loyal person.
Second of all, I know he was a great president, and that does not come lightly for me, nor for Jack.
Charlie, here's my answer to that.
It's right in front of you.
The upper Rust Belt?
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
No other Republican candidate in recent history, since the 1980s, has, since Reagan, right, and HW a little bit because he was on the Reagan's coattails, have been able to win back the upper Midwest and the Rust Belt.
And I put Pennsylvania in that column because Western Pennsylvania fits into that demographic.
Donald Trump has a connection with the people of that region.
He has a connection with those tolls.
He got 1.3 million people out for him.
That didn't show up.
1.3 million.
That aren't showing up for anybody else.
And those are in key states.
And guess what?
The upper Midwest, the Rust Belt ain't the Sunbelt, right?
The Rust Belt ain't the Sunbelt.
So you need a guy who can play in both.
And we do have one of those right now.
Yeah.
And so, look, it's going to be a lot of fun.
And that's, by the way, that's not an, I'd like Rob, I'd like to Ron DeSantis a lot.
Like it's not a knock against him or really anyone that's trying to run right now, except Nikki Kelly, who sucks.
But the idea that is that I think he would be the most elected, right?
I'm going to read another email here, which is this: one who has supported and defended Trump since 2016.
I am done now.
I can only care more about America than a man.
Trump attacking good Republican candidates because of a bruised ego.
He puts himself before the good of the people.
I cannot support and defend him anymore.
Getting a lot of emails like that.
Another one person here says, Charlie, I'm 100% Trump.
I think you should attack these other candidates.
We need him as the candidate in 24.
I don't trust anybody but Trump.
Trump Attacks Good Candidates00:13:08
Okay.
So we're getting it both ways.
My comment section and my emails have been exactly the same.
It's 50%.
Oh, this is Demo Ego.
He's thin-skinned.
What's going on?
Why is he doing this?
The other half is this is exactly right.
He's thinning out the field.
He's targeting people who might run against him.
He's launching the first step.
We got a mass ballot drop here of $413,000.
Whoa, whoa.
And Blake Masters gained in this.
And so Carrie Lake got 58% of it, which means she gained like 30 votes.
So remember, Coach East is basically the outskirts of Tucson, right?
So I loved it all together: Pima and Coach East and everything in the South.
And that's Bisbee.
That's Syria.
In the Southeast.
Tombstone, too, right?
It's not the greatest territory for us.
Do we actually live in Tombstone?
There's actually tribes, and there's a massive amount of Hispanic voters that generally haven't always gone our way.
They're converting.
But yeah, I mean, this is a good sign that it looks like these were day of votes that are breaking nearly 60% for Carrie Lake.
That's a great sign.
And for Mark Fincham, too.
So this is really the indicator.
Mark Fincham is pulling ahead about two points ahead of Blake.
So there is real.
I tweeted this this morning.
There's a real possibility that this place is this election so close for Blake and Mark that one of them loses and one of them wins, but they're only separated by a few thousand votes.
Ken says, since when do donors determine who can run for president?
I just tripled my Trump donation this month.
Millions more like me, Ken from Prescott.
Yeah, again, it's not the media, the pundits, or the donors who choose the candidate.
It's the voters.
It's the voters.
It's the people who turn out in the primary and it's the people who turn out in the general.
And I think this was determined to great effect in 2016.
Lindsay says, honestly, I don't think Trump will win the nomination with his latest comments.
Okay.
So I do find it interesting.
I just have to say it, all right?
I just throw it out there that everybody's made this joke for the last two years.
No more mean tweets, no more mean tweets, no more mean tweets.
Now we are getting mean tweets again and everybody's complaining about it.
Okay.
So Tyler, when are we expecting the next vote drops?
Hashtag noncommittal Charlie.
I'm winning Trump if he runs.
We truly do not know.
Like we really, truly do not.
He's announcing Tuesday, by the way.
Everybody knows that, right?
He's announcing for president Tuesday.
He's announcing President Tuesday, Mar-a-Lago.
Hopefully, we know.
Yeah, I got an invite.
I don't know if I'm going to be there.
Congrats.
I will not be there.
I cannot make it.
Yeah.
I'll probably be out of the country if we can figure out our elections here.
That being said, I have a prior engagement.
I would have no problem going.
It's not like I'm saying I refused to go or something like that.
It's not priority.
I may be over there.
I may not.
We'll see.
You should go.
You should be the emissary.
One of us should go.
The turning point emissary.
Yeah, the turning point delegation led by Tyler.
That'd be a good idea for you to go.
The ambassador.
I'm invited because I'm on the RC.
You should go.
You should go.
I will probably go and then go just head up to make my East Coast pit stops and then come back.
I think that's a good idea.
You should represent us.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Carrie Lake is now only down 26,000 votes after that latest Coach East drop.
But if you model that out, that's really good.
It's going to be great news.
Yeah, Carrie Lake is heading in such a great direction.
She could win by like 120,000, 150,000 votes.
It's possible.
More than possible.
She could end up winning by a lot.
And the media narrative that's going to happen, and this is part of the reason why I think they're doing what they're doing.
And I really, I really, really do believe this.
And for all the crazy people online, they're saying that this is not going to be close.
It's going to be a blowout for Blake.
Guys, Kerry Lake's not going to win by a bunch of votes and then Blake lose by like a ton of votes.
There's not 300,000 vote differential there.
It's just not.
So either you have to believe Kerry's going to win by a lot and Blake's going to lose by a little or win by a little, or you have to believe that Kerry's going to win by a little and Blake's going to lose by a lot.
And I just, I'm telling you right now, all of the data, I'm telling you, there are existing four or four Republican voters that exist out there that have not yet, their vote has not been counted.
It has not been tabulated.
We went into election day with almost 50% of four or four Republicans always vote in every election, Republicans that had not yet voted.
Okay.
And only half those people could have voted at the polls because only half those people's votes were tabulated.
There's 500,000 plus people who voted in America County alone.
Only 248,000 of those voted in person.
So what does that mean?
Just do math.
This is basic logical math here, guys, is that there is likely still 25% of our voters close to it that have not yet had their voice heard.
And their voice, you know what it's saying?
Blake, Blake.
That's right.
Blake, And I'm telling you right now, that is being underrepresented in the media narrative.
No, is that?
So we have to stand alone on it.
Is that 25% in Maricopa or 25% statewide?
Statewide.
But still, it's the state.
It's across the board.
And most of those votes are in Maricopa County.
That's great.
That's good for Blake.
It's very good.
That's good for Blake.
And that's good for Blake in Tucson.
I'm telling you, Tucson's got that.
Once Pima starts reporting their day of drops, I think people are going to be shocked.
Do you know what people do in Tucson that are Republican?
They hide.
It's like New York City, right?
Or it's like D.C. You know this, Jack.
Pima's a problem, man.
We got to solve that.
You hide and then you come out, you crawl out of your hole on election day.
You vote and you go back and you hide because you don't want to get slaughtered by the left.
Wait, Charlie, I just got one.
Big losers, Charlie and Jack are conveniently out of the country when Trump announces they are afraid to associate with Trump and will not support him.
Bunch wait.
They're disloyal losers.
Someone said that.
Someone just said that.
Did someone really say that?
Someone really just said that.
This is what makes me just want to quit politics when I get stuff like that.
I'm going to be there.
Conveniently.
Everything's a plot.
Yeah, conveniently.
Everything's going to be debating at the Oxford Union and speaking at Cambridge.
But yeah, convenient.
Everything's literally a plot.
Everything's a plot.
Oh, my gosh.
All right.
Emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Do me a favor and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast as we wait for more ballots.
And we go through here.
Also, waiting on Nevada as well.
I'd love your thoughts on Trump v. DeSantis.
Just curious.
Getting a lot here.
Someone says, Kim, I trust Trump.
He'll always have my vote.
He always speaks truth.
Sometimes it takes a while for us to see, but he always ends up telling the truth.
Someone says here, when I hear messages about Trump, I'm afraid they're all brainwashed.
I am worn out.
I liked him before, but I'm done now.
Okay.
Okay.
Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
We deeply appreciate all of your support and backing.
That's right.
Someone just said, it's funny how the bad news for Democrats always drops on weekends.
That is an interesting thing, isn't it?
It's as if they want to have the deadest news cycle possible to when Carrie Lake becomes governor.
So it's going to be a big, big deal.
By the way, I could just tell by everyone who has emailed me here about the drops and about whether or not their vote has been tabulated.
There's going to be a very good result once the same day drops come through.
Tyler Boyer has news.
So yesterday we held the leadership elections in the Arizona State Senate.
And so This is how we're winning, even when Maricopa County isn't counting balance.
We're winning because Warren Peterson from Gilbert, who hails from Gilbert, he's been a long-standing member of the Arizona State Senate.
He is the understudy for Andy Biggs, who was he took over basically his job when Andy Biggs went to Congress, and he is one of the most conservative members that we have in the state legislature.
They just made him the Arizona Senate president yesterday.
And one of the first things he did was he made assignments for committees.
And guess who is our committee chair in Arizona for elections?
Warren Peterson.
No, it is Wendy Rogers.
Are you serious for elections?
Oh, that's amazing.
That's a big deal.
So if you want to see, so I tweeted something just tongue-in-cheek, and I'm just teasing for all your Floridians.
I'm teasing, but I'm sort of not.
Arizona, I said Arizona is going to make Florida look like California soon.
We're going to have Governor Carrie Lake.
We're going to have AG Abe Homeday.
We're going to have Mark Fincham.
Hopefully, we can get him across the finish line here.
We're going to have Warren Peterson as the Senate president.
And now Warren is going through, and we have the most conservative legislature I think we've ever had.
And it's like Wendy in elections.
We're going to have, they're going to announce, I haven't seen anything else.
And so I want to leave that to this because I'm leaving to everything publicly here.
But we're going to have some of the most conservative members ever that we've ever seen across the country in the legislature running the state.
So how's that different for Florida?
Well, Florida has a pretty moderate legislature.
So Governor DeSantis is great, but he has to work with essentially a very moderate legislature.
And it's getting better.
I think this election got a little bit better, but they're nowhere near.
It's a huge state.
They're nowhere near as agile as Arizona is going to be.
Arizona is in position to make Florida look like just like the appetizer to the main course here, which will be Arizona.
So I am extraordinarily excited about Governor Carrie Lake, extraordinarily excited about Abe, because when Kerry wins, Abe will have won.
And Warren Peterson is just, I'm telling you, he's just a stud.
And so tonight, I think we're going to try to have him on the stream for a little bit to talk about a little bit about Arizona.
Oh, that'll be great.
And the future of what Arizona is going to look like with a legislative agenda that's going to, again, just make every other, I think we're going to lead here in Arizona.
I think so.
I think it's going to be pretty amazing.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
I'm going to play some tape here.
We haven't really played a lot of tape.
Can you resend the cut sheet, Ryan, please?
Look, there's so much good news to celebrate this week.
Nancy Pelosi, she's done.
Nancy Pelosi will no longer be Speaker of the House, and that is a great thing.
In fact, some of the modeling has improved where it looks as if Republicans could potentially have about a seven-seat majority, Tyler, which is a lot better than a two-seat majority.
Seven to ten is kind of that sweet spot.
Yeah.
Really good.
As long as it's as many Freedom Caucus members as we've got.
Yep.
And Ana Paulina is just really great.
So it looks as if there are 21 races yet to be called.
Is that right?
I'm trying to see how many there are left.
22, 22 left to be called?
22?
I think that's right.
22 races left to be called.
Yep.
And Republicans are leading in a lot of them.
And really, so in California, 22, California, 27, and Colorado, 8, Republicans have dramatically improved their chances.
And so which one is Schweikert's district?
Is that Arizona 6 or Arizona 1?
That's one.
Oh, man.
I just hope we can get that out of the way.
We can.
So that's what.
Kerry Lake is probably going to carry Schweikert.
So the story that's not being told right now is Arizona 1, really Arizona 4, too, because Arizona 4 is within.
He just called it yesterday as well.
25,000 of the votes behind.
But Arizona 1 is really the one we're waiting around for.
This drop to you in Maricoba County because that's going to be favorable for David Schweiker, who should be able to pull off the W based off of that return.
Yes.
He's only about a few thousand votes behind.
I think the latest is 5,000 votes.
It's really good.
And I mean, there's some of these other districts that have yet to be called.
Colorado 3 is Lauren Boebert.
That'll be called.
That'll get us to 212.
Oregon 5.
That's going to be a knife fight for a while, man.
My goodness.
Washington 3 with Joe Kent.
It looks like Joe's going to win that race.
The more ballots come in, which is great because a lot of the same days are coming in.
That'll get us to 213.
California 45 is going to be there.
It's Michelle Steele.
She's going to win.
She's a great candidate.
That'll be called and that'll get us to 214.
California 41 with Ken Calvert.
That's over with.
He's going to win that.
That gets 215.
And then Kevin Kiley, that's going to be called.
He's going to win.
That'll get us to 216.
And then Juan Siscamani actually hasn't.
I think Juan has been called by the AP, but it hasn't been tabulated yet.
So that really gets us to 217 without even getting into these other races that we're talking about here: Colorado 8 or California 27 or California 22 or Arizona 1.
And then we might be able to flip one or two of these other ones if more favorable ballots come in.
So we'll see.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email me your thoughts as always: freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thank you so much for listening.
God bless.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.