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Oct. 18, 2022 - The Charlie Kirk Show
36:46
Could Miami Turn Red? with Rich Baris and Devin Nunes
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Turning Point USA Update 00:02:07
Hey, everybody, P on the Charlie Kirk Show.
Rich Barris from Big Data Polls.
We go around the horn.
How's Georgia looking?
How's Arizona looking?
How's Florida looking?
What's going on with Carrie Lake?
What's going on with Blake Masters?
All of that and more.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
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With us now is Devin Unez from the great Truth Social, which now can be found in the Google Android app store, if I understand that correctly.
Devin, welcome back to the program.
Hey, Charlie, great to be with you.
Thank you.
Tell us about the latest.
What's going on?
Well, it's good to be we're number one in the Google Play Store.
After many, many months of working with Google to try to get them to approve us, they finally did approve us.
And now we've been number one for four days, hopefully going on a fifth day.
So now we are finally open, Charlie.
I know it's been a long, long wait for folks, but we fully opened in April in the Apple App Store.
And we've been waiting basically since then to get open for Android phone users.
Truth Social App Launch 00:14:36
So we're now fully open in the United States and the United Kingdom.
And it's great to be here.
I think I can finally say we're fully launched in the United States of America.
How's traffic going?
How are things?
What are you seeing?
You know, tell us about it.
Yeah, look, I mean, I think we're the, you know, obviously we're the third largest social media platform despite all the fake news out there or the U.S. company.
If you take Meta, Facebook, Instagram, obviously being the largest, Twitter's next, and then us.
And so for a company that just barely fully launched four days ago, I think it's kind of an amazing place to be.
And every day we're picking up new users.
And, you know, we're the home of free speech.
We're that parallel economy.
We're the one that we're not going to cancel you.
You know, we're not going to be canceled by any big tech giant.
And we're building these rails, you know, working with Rumble.
Right.
I always like to say that we're building that new internet superhighway so that we don't have to rely on these big tech companies.
What does that consist of?
It consists of cloud, which we're using the Rumble Cloud, video, which we're using Rumble Video, and then also the new Rumble ad system that will compete with Google.
And then Truth Social is essentially that communications platform now that we're fully launched in the U.S.
And then soon we'll be having direct messages.
So that's in test now.
So if you're on the platform, you'll be able to send direct messages back and forth between your followers.
So, you know, something that people are really worried about is midterm, you know, communications, meaning that in the communication of social media censorship, you guys at Truth are figuring out a way to obviously kind of build that parallel voice.
You know, talk about that.
Talk about how it's very important people can express themselves freely and openly.
And for the first time in this midterm election, we actually have a platform where we can get our voice out.
Yeah, and I think that's the key, right?
Are both true social and I would say rumble for that matter, we're now standing there in the breach.
So that it's not as easy as for the tech tyrants just to do what they did in 2020 and ban the Hunter, you know, Hunter Biden laptop story.
If True Social had existed back in 2020 and all of those platforms were banning that, well, you would have had the New York Post Fox, everyone would have had to have come to True Social to post the information, and the American public would have had to go to True Social to get that information.
But there just wasn't something like that that existed at the time.
So, you know, now that True Social and Rumble have built this new internet superhighway that essentially is not going to censor people for political purposes, you know, that's why I left Congress.
And we just don't want to see what happened in 2020 and 21, where certain news stories are censored.
And then ultimately, you saw what happened to Parler, where they were completely just nuked off of the internet by these big tech companies.
So both True Social and Rumble, we've built this block by block, piece by piece.
And I almost look at it as, you know, really, it's almost two things.
It's an open internet to give people their voice back.
But Charlie, for people like you, it's also a really important insurance policy because a lot of people have built up huge audiences on YouTube just to one day wake up and poof, they're gone.
They got, you know, get banned from every single platform.
And so I think if you're a content creator, small or large, you know, it's really important to be active on both True Social and Rumble.
Yeah, I totally agree.
I want to shift gears here, Devin, and get your thoughts on the midterms.
Let's play Cut 17.
The majority of people say they don't think the president cares about people like them, and most don't see the president as a strong leader.
When it comes to 2024, nearly one-fifth of voters in the president's own party say they'd like to see a different candidate on the ballot.
And not to mention just general direction of the country, you know, the economy is becoming the number one issue in this midterm.
Devin, how do you feel?
You've been through a lot of different elections.
How do you feel going in 22 days from any Democrats that are out there that actually are saying they want Biden to run again, those are going to completely dissipate after this next election if it is indeed a wave?
Charlie, I got my start in politics in 1994, parking cars, putting up signs for that wave that nobody saw coming.
Then in 2010, I was in Congress.
I was out recruiting candidates, raising money on the campaign trail.
Nobody thought that we were going to win, but I'll say that we had really good candidates across the board, and we went pretty deep.
The Republicans at the time, we played in a lot of races.
And of course, boom, we won back the House and the Senate in 2010.
I will tell you, having been there in 2021, out recruiting candidates, working with the NRCC, raising money, doing events all over the country when I was still in Congress, I'll tell you, we have never had a crop of candidates like this across the board in both the House.
And I will say this too, even the Senate.
You've got a lot of the fake news out there, some Republicans playing into this game that, oh, that we've got weak Senate candidates.
You know, that is just absolute nonsense.
You know, in any normal year without the fake news, you know, you take an Oz, who's a very popular figure, you know, TV guy.
You know, those are always people that you want.
You want people with name ID that people know, that star factor.
The same with Herschel Walker.
You know, how many times, Charlie, have you heard that, oh, the Republicans, you're just a bunch of old white guys.
Well, now we get two young, tech-savvy, dynamic business guy candidates in both JD Vance and Blake Masters out in Arizona.
And what does the, you know, what does the fake news say?
Oh, they're just terrible candidates.
Well, you know, just a year ago or two, you were saying, oh, they're just a party of the old white guys.
So I think that across the board here, phenomenal candidates for sure in the House.
It's really, really deep.
I think if you, you know, I know everybody wants to hear about numbers, but look, I think the Republicans are looking at somewhere between a 25 to 40 seat pickup, which would, you know, if you get to the 40 seat pickup, you're talking about the largest majority that the Republican Party has ever had.
And I think that's, you know, look, we'll see how things break, but clearly, and I know you've probably talked about this, but, you know, Biden is just completely aloof.
You got his wife showing up getting booed at the Eagles games.
You got him, you know, licking on ice cream, saying that $7 gas in California is normal.
I mean, these are, this is a party that is really taking the country down a very dark path and have been.
And the bottom line, you know, why?
It's because their policies just don't work.
They put in these new, woke, extreme left policies, and they have failed.
And that's why we have this global inflation that is absolutely destroying people at home.
And so, you know, we were talking about True Social and big tech.
You know, sometimes all, you know, controlling all the fake news or nearly all the fake news, being able to censor it through all the internet.
The problem they have, Charlie, is you cannot censor $7 gas out in California.
See, people see it every day in the grocery store, when they drive by a gas station.
And I think it's going to be really ugly for them here in three weeks.
It looks like it's going to collapse, but we got to put our shoulders to the wheel.
What is President Trump's plan for these midterms?
Because I know he's doing some rallies and stuff, but I told him this on the phone.
I said, we need you, man.
We need you out there.
We need you on the field.
And I'm not saying he's not out there right now, but I grew kind of accustomed to President Trump back in back in 2018 when he did that blitz.
You remember that, right?
He bailed out so many candidates.
And I'm looking at Donaldjtrump.com and there's one planned rally in Texas coming up in five days.
So are we going to see kind of a mass blitz from Donald Trump?
We're going to tease the audience here.
I think we could really use it and need it, especially in some of these MAGA America first areas.
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What is President Trump's plan for the midterms?
We're running out of time.
Look, he's been all over the country all year.
He's the party's number one fundraiser, and he's continuing, you know, and that's with True Social, his only social media platform, just barely now being open to all the users in the United States.
So he's largely had to rely on emails and these huge rallies that he's been holding basically every week or two.
And Charlie, look, I don't know exactly what's in store.
I did talk to him over the weekend.
He's fired up.
He has a lot of candidates.
He has never stopped recruiting good candidates to run in these races.
And, you know, he's been involved not just in the House and Senate races, he's also been involved in the gubernatorial races.
And look, right now it's looking really good.
You know, we're what, 22 days out right now.
I would, I would guess that he's going to start to ramp up rapidly.
I mean, I know this, that if a candidate really wants him to come in, you know, he's going to make every effort he can to get to that candidate's district or state.
And if you look across the board, you know, he's hit about the top five or six top states where there's tight Senate races.
He's been in those states already.
Now the question I think you ask is, you know, will he go back and will he do a kind of a barn burner tour leading up to the election?
I'd like to see him do it.
But Charlie, as you well know, neither one of us can control what Donald Trump says or no, I'm just asking because I say it as a form of flattery for the president.
When I was talking to him, I said, you can win us these midterms.
This is all you.
And I mean that as total respect.
And I think he will.
I think that he's going to come out because he doesn't want to sit on the sidelines.
And I mean, I think he could win Oz's Senate race.
I think he could win Herschel.
He was just out here in Arizona.
I think he could run up the score in Ohio with JD Vance.
And with Obama out of the picture, I mean, we have never seen a former president with this kind of political power.
He could change the entire midterm landscape.
And so what races in particular?
Yeah, go ahead, please.
I was just going to say, Charlie, I think that's a very good point because this really is, we're really in an unprecedented era of U.S. politics.
Because you had Donald Trump, who was not in politics, business guy, shocks the world, wins in 2016, and then is very popular.
Obviously does not come back to the White, does not get re-elected to the White House, but he's never relinquished control.
He still is the Republican Party leader.
And we haven't seen that in Republican politics for a very long time.
And if you compare him to, say, Obama, where Obama has served his two terms, but Obama can't show up and get 10 or 20,000 people to a rally.
In fact, I saw he was out doing some political campaign events the other day.
And look, and I'm not clearly not an Obama fan, but I will tell you back in 2008 when he was campaigning for office, I mean, the guy could flat out get a crowd and he could give a good sense that I agreed.
He could drive 15, 20,000 people.
Trump's the only one that outdid him that we've ever seen.
Yeah.
And what's interesting is that Trump can still do it today.
And that's, and I don't think we've ever seen that in American politics in modern history, where you have a former president who is effectively still the party leader.
You know, look, people just don't respond.
And I'm not being critical of some of my former Republican colleagues in the House or the Senate, but Joe Blow congressman doesn't send out an email or do a rally and say, hey, come and support JD Vance.
I don't think Paul Ryan is drawing very big crowds right now.
Paul Ryan, who has very nasty things to say about Donald Trump.
Yeah, I agree with that.
And I just want one other thought.
The way FDR completely changed the Democrat Party, they were known as FDR Democrats for two generations, New Deal Democrats in the 40s and 50s and 60s and 70s, really until Bill Clinton came along.
Reagan really changed the Republican Party and there were Reagan Republicans.
I think Donald Trump's mark on the Republican Party is even very similar.
Your thoughts?
Yeah, I think the key is Donald Trump is very passionate about one thing that a lot of people mocked him for.
They didn't think he was telling the truth about it.
As you know, Charlie, he loves infrastructure.
He loves buildings.
And something that bothered him, and you can just feel it when he talks, when he drove around that Rust Belt and flew to the Rust Belt and did meetings for 20, 30 years, and he watched all these businesses and jobs go overseas, it left a mark on him.
He's passionate about it.
And so that's really what he brings.
When they say America first, it's about bringing American jobs back here.
It's about really standing up to China.
It's about not getting involved in increasing foreign wars.
And I think one of the appeals of Trump is that in a world where we live, where people say men can become pregnant, all this, Donald Trump is so real because he always had to deal in things that worked.
Trump did not build wealth with abstractions.
He built wealth with building things that actually mattered.
Okay, Devin Unez from Truth Social.
Midterm Election Polling Shifts 00:12:17
Download it on Google App Store.
Devin, thanks so much.
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Very smart man is joining us momentarily here.
I have a lot of respect for him.
He's a pollster data analyst, and we're going to talk all things midterms as it's very, very important.
But first, I just want to reiterate: if you're in anywhere in the great city of Fargo, Tallahassee, Charlotte, or Kansas City, I would love to see you.
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We have University of Missouri tomorrow in Kansas City, not Columbia, Kansas City.
And then today we have North Dakota State University in Fargo, North Dakota.
And then we have Florida State University coming up later this week, and then University of North Carolina, Charlotte.
Joining us now is Rich Barris from Big Data Polls, People's Pundit.
And if I get my way, he's going to be helping us anchor on election night, but he's too big for us.
So he's got something else to do.
Rich Barris, how you doing?
Hey, living the dream, Charlie.
How you doing, buddy?
Doing very good.
Welcome back to the program.
He does a great job.
And so let's just start with the kind of broad question.
What's your analysis where we stand in the midterms right now?
What's your diagnosis?
You know, we're midway through October here, Charlie.
And what I expected to happen was, you know, before the summer, all year, we had seen historically large leads on the generic ballot for Republicans bigger than anything we've ever measured before.
And that the issues had kind of solidified over the summer.
Polling can get a little screwy, but also there were some, you know, wrenches thrown.
I think there's a lot of people.
Why is that?
Sorry to interrupt.
Why does polling get screwy over the summer?
We get asked that question all the time.
I'm curious.
Why?
Yeah, that's a great question.
You know, everybody behaves differently.
And Republicans, you know, without insulting anybody, Republicans tend to live their lives a little bit more without being so interested in high interest in politics the way that Democrats are.
They're not as willing to participate in surveys, period.
And then when the summer comes along, there's a response bias.
And I think there was something more going on this time, though, Charlie.
We have that speech by Joe Biden.
And I think any pollster that is being honest will agree with me that after that speech, and the Mar-a-Lago raid, you know, they retreated.
They were afraid, you know, basically to talk.
They didn't want to.
And the general sentiment was, you know what, you'll find out what my vote is on election day.
I don't want to talk to you.
And our social bias indicators went through the roof, which we have questions that we use to measure how much social bias is infecting the survey.
And it went through the roof.
And I think now what's happening is that people are just re-engaging.
And there were some independents in our pre-Labor Day survey.
They looked like Republican voters, but they kind of moved out of the likely voter model a little bit.
Some of them went back to undecided, almost 11% at 12-2.
And the someone else number, which is third party, you know, grew bigger than it had been all year.
And I had said to people, wait, the fundamentals are the fundamentals.
And at the end of the day, those people are much more likely to return to the Republican Party than not.
It's a first-term incumbent midterm.
And over this weekend, I think you even see some media polls finally start to admit it.
Over the weekend, the beginning of the dam starting to break happened.
You know, we're district-level polling that is in places that you would never expect to be close, closer.
And the generic ballot nationally, it's not done yet, but I will be able to, I mean, I can confidently say Republicans are going to grow their lead in our generic ballot poll nationally.
So it's, and we all should have expected this.
It's a first-term incumbent midterm with an unpopular president.
Right track, wrong track is historically negative.
The economy is bad.
Inflation is ridiculous.
This is what we should have expected.
So what do you make of the new New York Times Sienna poll?
I don't know if you had eyes to had a chance to look at it yet.
Walk our audience through what it says.
You could do a better job than I could.
And what's your thought or reaction on that?
Yeah, I think generally, I think they're trying now to use a likely voter to reflect the state of the race better.
They went from Democrat plus two to Republican plus four.
Hispanics are generally in the same ballpark.
I think they're going to miss there.
I think Republicans are going to do better with Hispanics than they have in the past.
I think if you're at 38%, you need to tick that up at least a bit to four points or so at least.
And then in concentrated areas, I think we're going to see Republican candidates carry Hispanic voters in statewide races, which is going to stun a lot of people.
But I think they better get ready for it because I think it's going to happen.
I'm confident in some of these races, it's going to happen.
But the working class in that Sienna poll, they at least picked that up.
They're re-energized.
They're the most stoked about voting.
That is not good for Democrat in a midterm election.
Yeah, so that's your muscular class voter.
Is that right?
That's right.
Okay.
But they're getting crushed by inflation.
They're cultural conservatives.
They're proud American flag guys.
Right.
They probably have kids.
They're tired of this pregnant men crap.
They're tired of pornography in schools.
Right.
Is that the demographic we're talking about?
The hard hat folks?
Yeah, it is.
I mean, look, I had one Hispanic voter tell me recently, I don't have time to learn your new pronouns.
I have, you know, bills to pay and I've got work to do.
I've got shifts to make.
I got, you know, inflation is just beating the hell out of me.
I mean, that's what they, you know, that's what he said.
It's them.
And I also tried pointing out for weeks now that the undecided vote heavily skewed toward Republican demographics.
Democrats had been maxed out at the levels that you were looking at.
Post-grad holders, you know, they were maybe undecided two to four points.
Whereas you had, you know, some college associate's degree and down were largely undecided, were the lion's share of undecided.
The same thing is true in partisanship.
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, they were the ones holding back.
Democrats were maxed out, Charlie.
So, you know, there was only one place for them to go.
You know, I mean, this was a bit of a fake lead.
You know, I think it was, we were the first one in Wisconsin to show Ron Johnson ahead.
That's a perfect example.
Yes.
He was ahead by three in our first poll.
He's going.
We're redoing that now.
He's going to widen that lead because those people who are deciding, you know, that they're Ron Jones.
Let's take one state that obviously I'm really interested in Arizona.
I mean, Arizona.
I don't want to celebrate.
I don't want to pop the champagne.
I don't want to wrestle on our laurels, but we are having a discussion of our team where one person on our team says, I'm not really big into the vibe.
I'm a vibe guy, right?
I'm data plus vibe, equals, meaning like I see what do I hear on the ground?
What's the chatter?
Yeah, nobody Katie Hobbs is a disaster.
She's not a good candidate.
She is a complete and total flop.
And Kerry Lake's a great candidate.
Is it conceivable Kerry Lake wins by four or five points?
It is.
We have Kerry Lake up right now, just under four.
We're redoing that one as well.
This is the thing with Kerry Lake.
You know, some of the other Republicans that are going to win, it looks like statewide, are going to do it on the back of pretty decent working class vote.
Kerry Lake is actually doing really well with college degree voters, not post-grads.
You know, they're just tough nut to crack, Charlie.
But if you can get, and so is Abraham Homeday, if you can get four-year voters to basically split or be within that sampling era, you're looking at a potential blowout.
A potential.
Yeah, so let me ask you then.
Okay, that's helpful.
So I think Kemp is going to win in Georgia.
I'm asking, do you think the governor candidate could pull the Senate candidate if the margin extends so much?
Can you explain how what is the ceiling usually of split ticketing in a midterm, right?
Is it 4%?
I mean, obviously, it depends on the candidate, right?
For example, DeWine is going to win by like 20 points in Ohio.
I can't stand DeWine, but that might actually help Vance.
Is that correct?
It is.
You know, Vance, I got to tell you, the polling in Ohio has been so terrible.
Speaking of Mike Dewine, he was projected to lose based on the polling.
Richard Cordray led anywhere between five and 10 points.
One poll gave DeWine.
It was an NBC poll.
And then they gave DeWine a small, I think, three-point lead in July.
But then by the time the election rolled around, they had Cordray winning by five.
So polling in Ohio is terrible in the media and university polling world.
It's just abysmal.
They don't really know how to poll that well.
I actually think that DeWine, he's going to win, but it's possible they overstate DeWine's support a little bit because they're going to talk about how these Republican governors, I think, are going to carry for sure.
Do you think that might be a leading indicator?
I mean, how much do am I really?
Am I really supposed to believe, according to these polls, that Brian Kemp wins by eight and Warnock wins by three, that 11 points of a split of a Kemp Warnock voter?
I mean, give me a break.
Yeah, that doesn't doesn't really happen.
In rare cases, when, right, like you said, there are, you know, specific candidate or local issues or local scandals or something that has happened.
But I really don't believe.
I'm not a believer that Walker was hurt badly by these stories.
And I think he put on largely from the expectations that the media said of Walker.
He outperformed those expectations.
And I think he won that debate handily.
So I think that a lot can happen in two weeks in Georgia, four weeks in Georgia.
And Walker is definitely not out.
He's not going to trail Kemp by eight or 10 points.
That's just not going to happen.
In Arizona, our polling shows that Masters trails Lake by about four.
So if Lake wins by five, Masters eeks it out.
Now, I don't know if our new polling is going to confirm that or if something changed, but Masters does have some groups that he's got to deal with.
I call it the Bill Nelson phenomenon.
There are some, you know, in Monroe County in South Florida, it's a Republican county.
They kept voting for Bill Nelson for some reason, unbeknownst to me, but because they thought he was a moderate.
And one of the real thing, you know, challenges Blake Masters had going into that debate was kind of unmasking Mark Kelly.
And I think that was one of the best debate performances I've ever seen.
Now it's up to his campaign to get that performance in front of people.
It's hard though.
You know, it is hard.
But he was closing that gap in the final couple of days that we polled that.
And it did suggest that he was winning over some people.
But we'll see.
We'll see.
It looks like, like I said, right now in our spread, it was four points.
I really don't think, you know, the Docey McSally component, totally different.
It was totally different than what we have here.
MyPillow Promo Code Kirk 00:02:12
Yeah.
Do see one by about 18 points and then cinema won.
Yes.
Yeah.
That's right.
I think it's a totally different dynamic.
We're looking at open governor race compared to an incumbent Senate race.
Carrie Lake, let's just be honest.
She's the most excited.
She is the, I've never seen a candidate since Donald Trump excite, let's just say, apolitical people like Carrie Lake.
I've never seen it.
I mean, if Katie Hobbs wins, I will be shocked.
I mean, I'm not saying Carrie, I'm not going to guarantee Katie will, Carrie will win by a lot, but there is an enthusiasm component in the equation.
There is an enthusiasm variable.
I'm telling you, Rich, I get stopped in grocery stores and people say, look, I just recently moved and I wanted to move earlier just to be able to vote for Kerry Lake.
You know, we have people that are just, I mean, that's not normal.
You don't see that.
That will manifest in extra 20, 30, 40, 50,000 votes that polling can't even pick up.
And I really believe in parts of Arizona have a lot of California influx.
I could tell you, you look at the demographics of who's buying property in Scottsdale.
And it's not just California.
There's a lot of Midwestern right-wingers like me that grew up in Chicago, grew up in Michigan, and we might be considered moderates in the Midwest, not me.
You come into Arizona, you're considered a right-winger, and they love Carrie Lake.
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So, so Rich, I hate to put you on the spot, but what do you think we're trending for?
Miami Dade Early Fear 00:05:33
52, 53?
And also, as an add-on to that, I love the people of Alaska.
Do you think the snake Lisa is going to lose?
Yeah, I think that Lisa is in big trouble.
She is.
And she's going to need ranked choice vote to save her if she can again.
But it is.
It's the biggest scam out there.
Alaska and Maine.
I mean, just for people should look up why both of those states did this.
It protects the establishment and, you know, of both parties.
It protects the establishment.
It protects the status quo.
So it makes it incredibly difficult to throw out a bum that you no longer want in office.
She knew that.
That's why all of her campaign staff, she remained quiet publicly, but all of her campaign staff was behind that push for that referendum.
So they got it.
Yeah.
And on where we're trending, you know, right now, we're still, we're actually redoing the House projections today.
But, you know, right now, I don't know if we're at 50 yet, but I mean, Charlie, this is, you know, this has been the closest Republicans have been to shattering that 247 since the spring, really.
Wow.
This is looking like the levy's going to break.
So let me ask you understand.
So a devil's advocate, a devil's advocate that a smart person I know that we kind of helped us said something that really made me think last night.
I don't know if I agree with it, is that polling is actually pretty accurate if Trump is not on the ballot.
Do you agree with that?
What is your thought?
Primary polling was horrible.
It was terrible.
In 2018, Donald Trump wasn't on the ballot and the polling was worse than 2016.
They whitewashed it because they wanted you to think that they had corrected their errors from 2016.
State level polling was terrible.
If it was right, Joe Donnelly would still be the press, the senator from Indiana, right?
Same with Heidi Heitzmann.
Heidi Heitkamp, Bill Nelly.
Claire McCaskill.
Claire McCaskill, exactly.
But, you know, Charlie, this predates 2016.
I just tried to explain that to people a little bit ago.
And on Twitter, I was responding to somebody's incorrect analysis.
In 2014, you could go back and look at the generic ballot.
Republicans won the House vote by over five points.
They were only ahead on the generic ballot by about, I think it was less than two, but NBC News had their final generic ballot tied.
Fox News was Democrat plus 2014.
Oh, wow.
Fox News had a Democrat lead.
So did CNN, Pew Research, you know, down the line.
I think it was ABC that got it really close.
So you got to give them credit where credit's due, right?
But for the most part, them and one other showed a Republican lead.
It was basically an outlier.
Rasmussen had a small Republican lead.
So the truth is this has been happening forever.
And if you look at the Senate races that year, Kay Hagen, she led in every single poll in North Carolina.
Tom Tillis, he didn't lead in a single poll except for one internal Republican poll that everybody mocked by Harper.
So yeah, I mean, this predates Trump.
So the idea that Trump is the problem and why, you know, the polling has been off, it's incorrect.
It's just not right.
That's pre-election polling and exit polling.
Veteran eggs and pollsters for years have been sounding the alarm that this will hit you guys soon.
You know, going back to 04, this is a long-term problem.
Rich, what are we seeing in early voting or mail-in ballot returns?
Are we seeing a lot of Democrat enthusiasm?
Are we seeing a lot of mail-in voting?
What are we seeing?
Not in Florida.
In Florida, which I expected to continue the trend to more election day vote.
I'm sure there still will be a heavy Republican election day vote.
But has anyone looked at Miami-Dade lately?
Republicans are on the verge of outvoting in Miami-Dade, which would be the end.
I actually think Miami-Dade is going to fall this time.
Donald Trump came very close.
Yeah, it could fall.
You think Miami-Dade could be a Republican county?
I do.
I see 100% what Trump and DeSantis have done in Florida.
What have they done?
Yeah.
I mean, and this is where donors, you know, they're like, oh, Trump turns people.
You have Florida as a red ruby state.
That's unbelievable.
And so do we.
They cannot win, Charlie.
They lose Miami-Dade.
I mean, obviously.
Do we have any other Georgia?
Do we know about returns?
Pennsylvania, Arizona, too early to tell?
It's a, yeah, the rest of it kind of is too early to tell.
Arizona, though, you know, people, as you know, they started getting balance out.
We're actually going to be having basically real-time data in Arizona starting in almost about a week.
So we'll know that.
It's interesting too, because when we're polling, I will give a caveat about Arizona.
I'm curious to see if this holds up during what we're basically doing, this exit polling.
I'm curious to see if it holds up.
But Arizona looked like it was going to be the biggest Election Day vote ever and that I've ever seen in Arizona.
And it looked like that in the primary as well.
And it happened, Charlie.
So we'll say that my only fear is that lines are going to be deterrence to some of our voters.
It's a big fear.
Rich Barris, got to have you back on soon.
Great job.
Big data polls.
People pun it.
Check it out.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email me your thoughts as always.
Freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening.
God bless.
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