The midterm races are hotter than ever as we reach the under-40-day mark, and Charlie brings on friend of show and the Trump endorsed candidate who stands at the precipice of saving Arizona, Kari Lake. She debuts her BRAND NEW campaign video, which gives an emotional look into her life and her desire to represent state 48 as governor. Next up Tom Bevan, co-founder and publisher at RealClearPolitics, to dissect the latest polls as the races get closer. Who will win on November 8? What are the sleeper races he's looking at and where are the weak spots in the Republican defenses. Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Carrie Lake's Emotional Ad00:10:01
Hey everybody, Carrie Lake joins us.
She plays her very emotional advertisement.
You guys can support her, CarrieLake.com.
And also Tom Bevin from Real Clear Politics talks about national trends that are looking better and better and better for a red wave.
A lot of work to do, a lot of ground still to make up.
Email us your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
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Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
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Arizona is the beachhead.
Arizona is a chance for us to push back against the globalists.
Every state matters.
Every square inch of this country matters.
However, Arizona right now is the place where all the thoughts, the prayers, the work, the ambitions of the working class, the MAGA base, the America First Movement is all coming into Arizona.
We're 39 days away from electing one of the most exciting candidates that I have lived through.
And that is Carrie Lake.
And she joins us right now.
Carrie, how are you doing?
I'm doing great.
Good morning, Charlie.
How are you?
I'm excellent.
Thank you.
So how's your race going?
You're running up against someone who refuses to debate you, runs away from questions.
The latest polls show you up despite the fact she's outspending you.
The media won't cover you accurately, but you're running one of the most successful grassroots campaigns I've ever seen.
How do you think it's going?
I think it's going great.
If you base it on momentum, it's going to be a landslide victory.
But we know that there are lots of other things that at play here, and we have to work for every single vote.
We're doing the Ask Me Anything tour because my opponent won't debate.
So we decided to take the debate, or as I call it, the job interview, out on the road.
And we're going to every corner of this state and letting the wonderful, great people of Arizona ask me questions as if it's a job interview.
And, you know, you said that my opponent won't answer questions.
I think a voter saw her at a Starbucks the other day and went to ask her a question.
And she said she won't answer.
She said, I'm not answering that.
I'm not talking to you.
And this is how she feels about the people of Arizona.
She's not serious about this job.
She's hiding in the basement and hoping that, you know, all of this dark money will win her this election.
It's gross.
She's contemptible.
The good news is that Arizona is still a red state and that people are coming to your campaign in huge numbers.
We're very honored, Carrie, that we get to play your new campaign video here.
Air it for its first time ever here on the Charlie Kirk Show Worldwide Reveal.
I'll be honest, I woke up very early this morning and I was getting emotional watching this.
I didn't know some of these details.
You have an Only in America story.
You have a story that honestly is inspiring to so many different people where you came from the most humble beginnings imaginable, a big family, and here you are right on the precipice of becoming a governor of one of the great states, Arizona.
It is a true embodiment of the American dream.
Let's watch this video together of Carrie Lake's new campaign video.
I want you to watch this biography of Carrie and tell me, this is not one of the most exciting stories you've seen in some time.
And then Carrie will let you riff on it.
Let's play the video.
I think there's always that Midwestern work ethic that you've heard about.
Because I grew up in a family of nine, it was honed even more because we had to work.
We were poor.
My family was very poor.
We didn't have food in the house.
I lived off of a gravel road.
We didn't even have a house number.
A couple times a winter, we would wake up at like 6 a.m. and we would go out and have to split wood and cut wood in order to heat our home.
During that time when I lived out in the country, I remember having a really tight, close moment with God.
I saw a plane flying over and it was really tiny.
And I thought to myself, someday I'm going to be on a plane doing something.
And I had this God moment where it was almost like God said to me, you are going to be on a plane.
You're going to go places.
You're going to do something big.
You and I have a rendezvous with Devil.
Ronald Reagan was my hero, and he is the reason that I registered the day I turned 18 as a Republican.
I look at that college degree at the University of Iowa.
It wasn't an Ivy League school, but I worked hard for every single course I took and worked my way through college.
Working as a janitor in a drug treatment center where people are coming straight from prison to go through drug treatment.
I learned how to use the big floor waxer.
I mean, I can run a janitorial crew very well.
I started my career at the same station that Ronald Reagan was at.
I got my first on-air job and I was there for about a year and a half and I got a call from Phoenix.
And let's go to Kerry Lake.
I am taking you along here in Arizona.
And I just fell in love with Arizona.
And the people fell in love with me too.
Kerry Lake, known in Arizona as a charismatic newscaster.
He's a lion.
Hear him roar.
A staple on Phoenix TVs for more than two decades.
This was back when people did tune in.
They tuned into the news at five.
It was based on trust and friendship.
I felt so blessed having a 27-year career covering this beautiful state and the great people of Arizona.
And I treasured my career and that job.
It meant the world to me for all of those years.
But like so many Arizonans and frankly, so many Americans, I woke up to a lot of reality during COVID.
I realized that there was an agenda being pushed by the media.
This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.
And I didn't want to be part of that agenda.
I know this job has gone from being a job I love to feeling like it was unethical and biased to being completely immoral.
The hang-up for me was walking away from a big salary.
I remember sitting at my desk in my office and I just was praying to God about it and I took the Bible and I just opened it up.
1 Timothy chapter 6, verse 7.
You bring nothing into this world and you take nothing out of this world.
And I remember getting the message loud and clear.
Okay, message received, God, I got it.
You want me to go?
And right then and there, I decided I'm leaving my career.
I don't like the direction it's going.
And I wake up the next morning and my phone was practically hot to the touch.
Many people said, you've given me the courage.
You've given me the strength to show that kind of courage.
All of those thousands, literally tens of thousands of messages.
One common thread that I kept getting from the people of Arizona was, would you please consider running for office?
Okay.
The next governor of Arizona, Harry.
We are a red state.
We are a wild west state.
And we demand common sense, not communism.
It can go right back across to California.
We don't want it.
It's funny.
I think that job, janitor, might be the job that prepares me most for politics.
You want to keep pushing propaganda?
Your days are numbered.
Because the people don't like what you guys have had to live.
I'm not afraid of the fake news.
I'm not afraid of the globalists.
It is no longer the party of warmongers.
Wake up, Joe.
We will rip them to shreds before they get their hands on our kids.
We're going to lift everybody up.
We will never stop fighting for the unborn.
Carrie Lake is strong.
I'm not afraid of the cartels.
Arizona, we got to save ourselves.
Day one, and we declare an invasion on our southern border.
There will be no mandates and no lockdowns to restore quality of life to Arizona.
For our students, after 10th grade, they decide if they're going to go to college or learn a trade and be able to get the jobs that are out there.
I will be working for you.
You will be the boss.
Arizona, I love every one of you.
God bless state 48.
Maybe God is tapping me on the shoulder saying, This is what I freed you up for.
This is what I freed you up for.
We can't wait to see what you do when you grow up.
How do you die to be just like you?
Now, that makes me emotional, I'll tell you, Carrie.
Thank you for playing that.
And I think you're getting emotional because you have a little girl now, and there's a lot at stake right now, Charlie.
We have our future at stake, and that's why I'm in this race.
We decided to put a little short documentary together because even though I've worked here in Arizona for 27 years as a fair journalist, you know, lots been said about me.
The Border Safety Crisis00:05:40
A lot of the attack ads, tens of millions of dollars thrown at me trying to dissuade people from voting for me and trying to distract from who I am.
And so we decided to let people know who I am, what my vision for Arizona is.
As dark as things are right now, and they are dark, I really do see our brightest days ahead because so many people are coming into the political fold right now, realizing that we, the people, need to chart our future.
It's one of the best political advertisements I've seen in some time because they're dealing with a true story.
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Carrie, what are the messages that are resonating the most with voters here in the great state of Arizona?
Well, recently, of course, it's education because we've always been on the cutting edge forefront of education freedom so that our families have options in Arizona.
And we just recently, our legislature passed ESAs for all, which some people call them vouchers.
They're not officially called that.
And basically, it means in Arizona, the funding follows the student.
It doesn't get earmarked for one specific school.
You decide where you want to send your kiddos and you send them off there.
And of course, the left is attacking it.
They don't want that.
They don't want that education freedom for families.
And so that's a big story.
Of course, my opponent, who went to a private school herself, doesn't want other children in Arizona to have access to those private schools if their family chooses.
That's the best fit for them.
And so she tried to block it.
She's, of course, in bed with the teachers' unions, who, by the way, don't care about the teachers and they don't care about the students and they hate the families.
So that's a big story.
And the economy.
We are seeing people struggle.
People move here, Charlie, to Arizona, not just for a great climate, but because it's been an affordable place to live and it's becoming less and less affordable.
That hurts our retirees.
We have a large retiree population.
You know, a dollar when Joe Biden took office is now only worth 87 cents, I think, and it's going down quickly.
People are so poor.
It's very sad.
Getting poorer.
And I don't know many people getting huge raises to make that make up that gap.
It's not happening right now.
So those are big issues.
The border is a massive issue because the wide open border with the narco-terrorists and cartels in charge is affecting every aspect of our life.
It's fentanyl pouring across, the crime pouring across, the people pouring across.
And they're ending up staying in housing that we could frankly use for Arizonans.
So we are going to get very strong and very serious on that border starting on day one.
And I know that the people of Arizona want that because I'm out there talking to them every day.
One of the reasons why I believe you're going to win, first of all, obviously articulate, charismatic, you understand what the people of Arizona want.
But I'm looking at these Katie Hobbs ads, which she's running thanks to California money, imperialistic California money that wants to take over our beautiful state.
And she's pretending to be this like tough person on the border.
And she looks like a total nerd walking around there with, I don't know, the two corrupt state sheriffs that she found.
But that shows Carrie that the issues that are your strike zone issues, she has to try to pander to.
And she's like, oh, yeah, I'm tough on the border.
Katie Hobbs isn't tough on the border.
Okay.
She's not.
She's the opposite of tough.
Well, you know, she parades out the two leftist sheriffs that we have in Arizona who turn a blind eye to all the problems.
And I feel sorry for the people in their counties because they're not really protecting them.
And she parades them out.
They walk along the border fence that President Trump put up, the border wall, and they're all opposed to it, but they use it for a prop in their background.
And Katie Hobbs voted against the border wall.
She voted against funding a border wall.
She voted against funding a virtual border wall.
She voted against funding our border strike force twice.
And she even voted against giving us the ability to ask the federal government to help us pay for some of the issues we're dealing with due to the border.
She is absolutely an open borders globalist.
And we won't have a state and we won't have a country very long if she gets anywhere near the Arizona governor's office.
Well, Arizona is right on the precipice.
Arizona go the way of Colorado or go the way of Florida.
And it needs leadership so terribly and so importantly.
So finally, Carrie, crime is up all across the valley, unfortunately.
Crime is huge.
Yeah.
Well, and this stems from some stems from the border as well.
We've had a million people come in that are gotaways.
Those are the most hardened criminals who don't want to be caught.
They don't want to be processed for asylum.
They're just people who have such a bad record that they're sneaking in.
A million out of the five million are gotaways, and we're seeing crime surge everywhere.
iTarget Pro Firearm Training00:03:16
This is why I back the blue 100%.
The police are supporting us.
They know that we're going to help to make sure that all police forces across Arizona are fully staffed rather than down hundreds of police officers.
And we're going to have them go out and make our streets safe again.
We need to have a safe state in order to have a great state.
This is not tough to figure out, but Katie Hobbs is a radical.
She would turn this state into something unrecognizable.
But I really think there's some very exciting future plans for Kerry Lake.
Governor is just one of those steps.
I think it could be very, very great.
But we got to get Kerry Lake to be governor of Arizona.
And it's very important.
CarrieLake.com.
Thank you.
We are competing with Texas and Florida right now.
We want to bring good businesses in.
I can't even imagine if Katie Hobbs won't debate me how she will handle going up against DeSantis and Abbott.
Yeah, right.
Katie Hobbs must be defeated.
We are going to beat her.
Carrie Lake, I think, is going to carry a lot of people on the ticket.
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Republican Trends Maximize00:15:52
One of my favorite websites during election season, I must go to it five times a day, is realclearpolitics.com.
It's fair.
It's transparent.
They have all the latest polling, all the latest trends, and they have this great aggregation of articles on both sides where you can really kind of see where the zeitgeist is leaning.
With us right now is the man behind Real Clear Politics, Tom Bevin.
And Tom, please unmute yourself on the Zoom.
That's what my team is telling us.
And once you do that, we'll hear you.
Tom, how are you doing?
I'm great.
Great to be with you, Charlie.
I understand you recovered from COVID.
I hope you're doing okay.
So I'm okay.
Good.
Back.
Praise God.
So, Tom, you and I have spent some time together hunting pheasants.
That was a little while ago before the world totally fell apart.
What are you seeing in some of the polling that you're aggregating on your great website, realclearpolitics.com?
Well, I think the probably the most interesting and relevant thing is the generic congressional ballot, right?
That is how we get a sense of where the public is in terms of their feeling towards both parties.
And it's the question that pollsters ask: you know, if the election were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican?
And no names attached.
And so, you know, we don't have any polling in a lot of these House races, right?
So this will give you a sense of which way the electorate is leaning.
Now, Democrats had been trailing in this in the spring.
They made a recovery, took a lead in the generic ballot over the summer.
But just in the last round of polling, so in the last few days, the latest round of polling shows Republicans pulling back into a lead in the generic ballot by about a point.
Now, why is that important?
Democrats traditionally sort of underperform the generic ballot.
They need to have a lead in the generic ballot.
And the reason for that is because demographically, all across the country, they're clustered in urban areas.
They're not well dispersed as a party.
And so these are all national polls.
So, you know, they tend to underperform, particularly in swing states, swing districts.
And so the fact that the GOP is now ahead with about 38 days until election day is a sign that I think it's a sign that undecideds who previously weren't sort of tuned into things are making their decision and at least so far are moving toward the Republican Party.
And that would be, I think, that would be logical given all of the dynamics that have been playing this election for dating back for months, the economy and inflation being the number one issue on the minds of the vast majority of Americans.
And Republicans have a lead on that issue over Democrats by anywhere from 15 to 20 points, depending on the poll you look at.
So, Tom, one of the things that I've been saying is that, you know, if you were a Democrat consultant and if you were kind of, let's just play, obviously I'm not, but if you were like a Democrat thought leader, I would be sort of worried because I can't imagine in the next 39 days to the election, there is a compelling new argument Democrats are going to be able to make to win over more voters.
And what I mean by that is Republicans have a lot of, they have a lot of growth potential.
Would you agree with that?
Just looking at it objectively, Republican trends have a chance to really maximize where it seems like Democrats have really, in some ways, solidified their base, you know, really captured people that are going to vote on the Dobbs decision.
They've saturated the airwaves on that for the last 90 days.
And it seems as if time is not on Democrats' side.
Would you agree with that?
I would.
And I'll put it a different way.
You know, on all of these polls, you look at pollsters ask, what's the number one issue on the minds of voters?
And for Republicans, it's an order of magnitude.
It is the economy, it is inflation, it is immigration, it is crime.
It is also for independents.
The economy is number one.
Immigration is also up there.
Crime is also up there, but it's not for Democrats.
And this is the problem.
For Democrats, abortion is the number one issue.
And in a couple of polls, the economy and inflation falls even below January 6th committee hearings or gun control.
And so we have this, what I call a partisan priority gap.
And parties have different priorities.
That's not unusual, but it is striking to see it this dramatic and this close to an election.
Usually, you know, the parties will find their way to speaking about the issues that matter most, not just to their voters.
And obviously, Democrats are stuck.
Their voters are concerned about certain things.
They're speaking to those things.
But when they're doing that, they're not speaking.
They're not speaking to independent voters and they're coming across as out of touch.
And so, for that reason, I think the way the issue landscape looks is more aligned with the Republican Party and independents and less so with Democrats and their priorities.
And for that reason, I think the Democrats may have a ceiling that they're going to run up against.
So, has there been an election like this in your memory where the priorities of both parties are so disconnected?
I mean, for example, in the 2008 presidential race, when Barack Obama beat John McCain, I think Obama won as convincingly as he did because everyone agreed the economy is a mess.
We have Bush fatigue, motivated Democrat base.
And I bet, I'm just guessing that if you polled an average Democrat, an average Republican in the fall of 2008, economy was the number one issue.
It was right near the financial crisis and collapse.
But now you have in 2022, 14 years later, I just use as an example, where you have an average Democrat voter who says, my top two basically priorities are climate change and abortion.
And Republicans are saying maybe, you know, immigration and inflation, crime.
Have we seen an election like that recently?
Not that I can speak to that comes to mind immediately.
I mean, to your point, there has been a general consensus on what the big issues of the day are in many of these elections.
Prior to 2008, it was all about the war in Iraq.
I mean, that was it.
And then it flipped almost on a dime, as you mentioned, with the Great Recession heading into that election.
It became all about the economy.
For a long time, it was about during Obama's first term, it was about health care.
That was the number one issue for a majority of voters, and certainly among Democrats, less so among Republicans.
But it is to have a situation where it is, you have these sort of overwhelming numbers, 75, 80% of folks saying that the economy is their major concern, inflation, gas prices, and the like.
And to not have that reflected, at least certainly at the national level, by the by the Democratic Party, which is, and you look at these, all of these races, every single one that I've seen, Democrats are making their ads about the Dobbs decision about abortion.
And they're trying to say, yes.
It is.
And, you know, they tried to do that a couple of cycles ago.
I tweeted about this a couple of weeks ago.
You remember Senator Mark Uteris from Colorado, right?
Mark Udall was running against Cole.
That was the year, right?
Yeah.
Exactly.
And that was the year of the woman.
If you remember that, Democrats had branded this the year of the woman, and that was all they were going to talk about.
That was in 2012 or was that in 14?
I can't remember.
I think that was in 14.
Yeah, that would be awesome.
And it just didn't work out for them in that way.
And I think they're hitting those same notes again.
And again, it's motivating their base.
And that's an important part of midterm elections.
But you can't win a midterm without also reaching out and winning over some of those independent, moderate-minded voters, particularly when you're thinking about the landscape.
It's the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, the suburbs of Phoenix, Arizona, the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
I mean, that's where I think Democrats are really going to find themselves with trouble with voters.
Certainly there are women in those areas that care about abortion as a primary issue, but there are an awful lot of folks who are less ideological, who care more about the price they're creating for gas and food and all of those things.
Have you seen a reordering as the economy becomes on shakier ground in the last 30 or 60 days for independence, where abortion might have been the third issue, but now it might be eight?
Or, I mean, are you seeing it go down in the hierarchy as economic anxiety increases?
It never went up, really, certainly for independents or Republicans.
And this has been, again, this has been pretty clear in the data for a long, long time now.
It's just not something that motivates a lot of voters outside of the base of the Democratic Party.
And so the economy has been, again, by two or three or four times more than anything else.
I mean, you get, you have some polls where no other issue makes it to single, it makes it to double digits.
They're all in single digits, and the economy is at 20, 30, 40%.
So it's just, it's not even debatable that that is what voters are telling pollsters is the most important issue.
And again, on those, and here's the problem for the demo: on those issues, Republicans have an advantage.
And Joe Biden's approval rating, which overall in our real clear politics average is about 42.5% right now.
On the economy, it's 38%.
On inflation in particular, it's 33%.
So the further you dig into those specific issues, folks don't appreciate, don't like the way Joe Biden's been handling those.
So some people are concerned that kind of, especially on the right, that going into these next 39 days, that Republican candidates are not really articulating the most persuasive message.
I think that's starting to change.
I'm starting to see that where some Republican candidates are starting to get on message and starting to be able to, you know, really communicate, you know, more effectively to their voters.
So let's kind of go through some race by races.
On realcorepolitics.com, you have a shocking poll that you guys, I actually sent it around.
Not shocking, but it's because we've been covering this race rather closely.
It's really a fascinating race because there's so many dynamics here.
Is the Fetterman-Oz race?
It looks like Oz is now within the margin of error.
I mean, 60 days ago, Oz was left for political death.
Yeah, I mean, Fetterman had about an eight-point lead coming out of the summer, and that's been chopped in half.
And as you mentioned, there are polls that have it even closer than that down to, you know, two or three points.
Fetterman's still leading in all the polls, but it is tightened up rather dramatically.
And I think that's a function of a couple of things.
I mean, one, I think Republican voters now who particularly in Pennsylvania is one of the one of the nastiest Republican primary fights of the entire cycle.
And there are a lot of voters, Republican voters there who really like Mostriano, but don't really like Oz so much, particularly in rural areas.
They're starting to come home now as they're faced with the actual choice.
And they're going to have to make a decision.
And it looks like most of them, you know, they're obviously not going to vote for Fetterman.
The question is, are they going to go in and vote for Oz?
Are they just going to leave that question blank?
Yeah.
And I mean, if there's, you know, Mastriano has a separate issue than Oz.
They almost have, they both, if they both could trade each other what they have for what they need most and keep what they have, they would both win.
Where Oz really needs central Pennsylvania-based support badly, and Mostriano needs some suburban support badly.
And Oz is doing very well in the suburbs, but not as well in the center part of the state of Pennsylvania.
Something to think about.
So, Tom, you know, you look at these polls and these trends.
You know, if you were to kind of predict something, what would you say are some sleeper races that are interesting?
Let's just say intriguing races that aren't getting enough coverage that you're keeping an eye on?
That's a great question.
I mean, you know, people are, as far as the Senate is concerned, you know, people are keeping an eye on the Washington state Senate race, the Colorado race.
Those are kind of the only ones that might be considered sleeper.
My sleeper is actually Minnesota governor's race.
I think given the way that that state has moved over the last couple of cycles, and you've got Tim Walz there, the incumbent Democrat running against Scott Jensen, who's a doctor, Republican.
That race is one to keep an eye on because you'll see if the electorate, if Republicans turn out on election day, that could very well be an upset.
So keep an eye on that one.
Yeah, one of the ones that I'm looking at that I'm intrigued with is the Oregon governor's race.
And the dynamic is interesting.
So you have a Republican, a Democrat, and then kind of a renegade independent, Betsy Johnson, who's a former Republican who is a very candid individual who I believe is receiving funding from Phil Knight, the founder of Nike.
And she's polling around 16 or 17% and drawing a lot of Democrats away.
And the Republican is up in the polls.
Could a Republican become governor of Oregon?
Yeah, it actually is looking like a real possibility.
And that's part of that too, is fatigue from the current administration, you know, two-term incumbent there who was way to the left.
And really, particularly with COVID and all that.
So yeah, that's another race to keep an eye on.
There could be a Republican governor in Oregon of all places after this election.
Yeah, I think we're going to see some switching.
I think the general trend is very favorable to Republicans.
Obviously, I want it to be, and I see that.
But there's a tight governor's race in Kansas, an incumbent Democrat, a tight governor's race in Oklahoma.
Governor Stitt is only up a couple points.
I think you guys posted that poll the other day on Real Clear Politics.
That part of the world, that kind of middle section, Midwest, kind of Great Plains, Democrats can do well at times in statewide races in particular.
And then you have the Wisconsin governor's race and many others.
So just kind of really quick, what House seats do you think are going to determine the majority?
You don't have to say the numbers because they're so hard to remember, but just kind of what portions?
I mean, what suburban areas do you think are going to be the ones that flip?
Well, that's a good question.
I mean, there are a number of suburban races all around the country.
I'm based in Illinois.
We've got a couple here that are going to be, you know, even in a state as blue as this one, Democrats are defending some of these suburban races.
You look in Southern California, California always has a number, and those seats have been sort of flipping back and forth over the last couple of cycles down in the Orange County area.
You'll see a couple races.
I think almost every race in Iowa is competitive.
And those aren't necessarily suburban because of the way that the state is laid out, but all of the races in Iowa are going to be very, very competitive.
So the problem for Democrats in the House, though, is that they're just the numbers are too daunting.
I mean, they would have to improve their situation dramatically from where we are right now in the next 38 days to really have any chance of holding the House.
I mean, we have 27 toss-up races that are Democrat held.
We have another dozen races that are already lean.
They're Democratically held seats that lean Republican and another five seats that are likely Republican.
Meanwhile, you only have one Republican seat that's leaning Dem and one Republican seat that is likely Dem.
So the numbers just really don't work.
Now, if they have a good night, they could keep their losses down to single digits.
But most likely, we've got it at about a 21 and a half seat pickup right now, which is a little less than the historical average of 28, but still would give them a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
I mean, there is a theme that the MAGA base can outperform some of these polls because it's a difficult phenomenon to pull.
Really quick, Tom, which base is more motivated to vote.
Historic Red Wave Forecast00:00:58
Oh, I think you got to give it.
I mean, again, you go back for me, there's been a lot of noise in this election, but you pull back and you look at 30,000-foot view and the fundamentals, and they favor the Republican Party.
I mean, they're the out party.
Biden has been, I mean, Democrats are facing historic inflation.
They're facing huge gas prices.
They're facing just an, I mean, you go tick through the list of things and all of these metrics are lined up against them.
So they're going to have to have a huge turnout just to stave off what would otherwise is going to be a red wave coming in in about 38 days.
I think that's only going to increase.
Tom, thank you so much, RioClear Politics.
I have it open right now.
Great work.
Thank you soon.
Thanks, Charlie.
Appreciate it.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email me your thoughts as alwaysfreedom at CharlieKirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening.
God bless.
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