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Jan. 24, 2022 - The Charlie Kirk Show
35:06
War With Russia is Coming—Here's Why That's a Terrible Idea
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Time Text
Why War With Russia Is Bad 00:09:10
Hey everybody, war with Russia would be a really bad idea.
Seems obvious, but unfortunately, Joe Biden seems like he is getting closer and closer to move American troops to the eastern border of Ukraine.
Why?
We explore that and so much more.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
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What is America's biggest problem that we are facing?
There's quite a few.
It's hard to rank them.
We've got problems on the southern border.
We have overdose deaths over 100,000.
There are people mysteriously dying between ages 18 and 64.
Medical tyranny is the new norm of doing medicine in America.
Over a million abortions every single year.
Our inner cities are a joke.
They're a travesty.
They're a third world disaster.
What is the biggest problem facing America?
Now, if you went around to a normal American city like Kansas City, and yes, I will talk about Kansas City and one of the most extraordinary football games I think ever played.
I still got hate mail, even though I did the NFL picks on Friday.
I didn't even get the games right.
I got one out of four right.
Right?
Yeah, one out of four.
Now, in my defense, every game ended on either a walk-off field goal or walk-off touchdown.
I don't like the NFL.
I think they're a bunch of scum rats that run the NFL, Roger Goodell and the BLM.
But boy, am I glad that I watched the beauty of football this last weekend.
But if you went to Kansas City, besides their greatest concern being Joe Burrow, what do you think would be the greatest concern for an average citizen of Kansas City?
Maybe opioids?
Maybe inflation?
Gas prices?
The deterioration of American schools?
The lack of representation that they feel in their constitutional government.
What do you think would be their argument for, or what do you think would be their concern for the greatest case, the greatest issues facing America?
Do you think it would be a border dispute in Ukraine?
Do you think that people in Oklahoma, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, wherever, do you think that they're waiting up at night and they say, yeah, you know, it's okay that things cost 25% more.
Gas prices are through the roof.
I have to go into debt just to be able to feed my family.
But what really bothers me is the fact that Russia might want to try and reclaim some of the territory they think is theirs in a border dispute 5,000 miles away.
I'd say this is probably a 99-1 issue.
99% of Americans couldn't care less.
And you have the 1% of people that do care, they happen to make all the decisions.
And they're involved in appropriating the resources to try to make you care.
Now, we're no fans of Russia here on the show, obviously.
Russia has been antagonistic towards America.
Russia has a different form of government.
They are not a constitutional republic.
I do think some of the criticisms, though, of Russia on American cable television is hilarious and laughable.
Where you have some people that go on TV, they say, we hate Russia because they don't have fair and free elections.
Yeah, we wouldn't know anything about that.
We hate Russia because they go after opposing viewpoints.
Yeah, no experience with that.
We hate Russia because they close off their borders.
Huh, that actually sounds okay.
Now, the parts we do hate Russia for is that Russia tends to be anti-American in their approach in a lot of different ways.
They try to poke America at every turn.
Exactly, that's another one.
They suppress journalists.
Right?
Yeah, we would never do that.
It's not like James O'Keeffe had his apartment raided as an opposing journalist to the regime.
Or, you know, they say, oh, yeah, they went after Alexei Navalani.
That's his name, right?
Navalani.
They go after opposing political opponents.
Yeah, it's not like the Democrats aren't currently trying to target the guy playing golf at Mar-a-Lago right now, who might be the opposing leader.
And look, I'm not defending the Russian government.
I just said I'm not a fan.
They're an enemy of the United States.
But I think some context sometimes is necessary before you get on your outrage carousel.
It's not like they try to put Roger Stone and General Flynn in prison for their whole life or Paul Manafort or whatever.
So Russia is no friend of the United States.
They could be a momentary and temporary strategic advantage for the United States to try to go up against China, which is the true threat.
Russia wants Ukraine.
They want Ukraine for many different reasons.
And they don't want all of Ukraine.
This is important to recognize.
The border of Ukraine, by some people that really know their Russian history, was drawn erroneously.
It was drawn in a way where, kind of arbitrarily, if you look at a map of Ukraine and you divide it by actual ethnic and cultural and linguistic heritage, the eastern part of Ukraine is a dominant Russian-speaking culture, is a dominant Russian historical connection, where the western part is much more Ukrainian, Romanian,
Slovakian, Hungarian, Belarusian, and Polish.
Now, it's easy if you are some kind of neoconservative national policy analyst in Washington, D.C., to look at the border of Ukraine and ask, act as if it's some sort of game of risk.
Like, oh, yeah, we're going to appropriate troops and we're going to prevent Putin from coming in.
First of all, this is how immature our foreign policy leaders are.
First, we need to take a step back and say, what does success look like?
You would do that if you were opening a car wash, if you were trying to start a baseball team, start a family.
You start with the question: what does success look like?
And can any apparatchik in Washington, D.C., in either political party, you're welcome to come on our show, by the way, tell me what does success look like in Ukraine right now?
Here's what they'll say: they'll say it's deterrence.
We're going to deter Vladimir Putin from not getting into Ukraine.
Okay.
Shouldn't success be building a coalition against China?
Wouldn't that be more important than deterring Vladimir Putin from trying to get a part of eastern Ukraine that he obviously wants?
Now, the consensus amongst the foreign policy intelligence in the West is that we should tell Vladimir Putin whether or not he can go into Ukraine and whether or not he should be able to colonize that country.
Some would say reunify, some would say colonize.
I don't like it.
I'm not saying we have to support it, obviously.
We can condemn it, kind of like Russia always does everything in the United Nations Security Council.
Instead, we could take a maybe a hundred-year viewpoint, and myself at 28 years old could say, huh, 40 years from now, do I think that Russian-Ukrainian border disputes is going to be the bigger threat to worldwide global hegemony?
Or the 1.3 billion-person nation that launched the virus either intentionally or unintentionally has lied about it, covered it up, smeared any sort of dissidents, building one of the largest militaries in the world, and also owns the American ruling class.
Outside of petro reserves, what is the Russian competitive advantage?
The Wag the Dog Strategy 00:02:49
They have a fine military, they also have a declining population.
So, Russia is seeing the signal from Biden.
They're seeing the signal from the West.
And how is Biden responding?
Instead of Biden back channeling with Putin, trying to come to some sort of agreement, some sort of temporary partnership against China, here's where Biden is going: Biden weighs deploying thousands of troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
President Biden is considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies in what would be a major shift in restrained stance on Ukraine.
So, basically, let's get ourselves more involved in the region.
We just got out of Afghanistan, which was a total catastrophe.
We invaded Iraq, which had zero geopolitical advantage for America at all.
The Iraq War was a total disaster, thousands of lives lost.
That's not to say that the veterans and the military service members who sacrificed their lives or their time in Iraq are anything but heroes because they are, but the Iraq War was one of the greatest failures in political foreign policy strategy in the history of the human species.
The Iraq War was a disaster, every single part of it.
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Wag the dog.
You probably heard that expression before.
There is a movie in 1997, Wag the Dog.
It's actually a pretty good movie.
NATO Reinforcements and Domestic Fear 00:06:53
Basically, it means that if there might be a military action, a superfluous military action, in order to distract from some sort of domestic scandal.
So, Wag the Dog actually came all the way back from a play called Our American Cousin in 1858.
But Wag the Dog is a phrase that is used in kind of journalist circles or communication circles when you see things that are not going well domestically, where you try to create some sort of international distraction.
Barack Obama did this several times.
He did this in Libya.
He did this in Syria.
George W. Bush did this.
Every president does this in every party, by the way.
Where things are not going well domestically.
Here's what Americans want.
They want strength.
They want war.
Here's the problem, though.
Getting in some sort of kinetic war with Russia is not like fighting the Sunnis.
It's not like fighting some sort of Shia militia.
It's not like fighting some proxy war of sand and death in Iraq.
These are cold-blooded killers.
These are people that have won wars before, actually.
The Russians have, in their history, and in just recent generational memory, some pretty decisive victories.
And yes, they have the Soviet Union that fell, which was a good thing.
The Russia of today is a far, let's say, weaker and slightly, slightly more Western version of the Soviet Union.
So Vladimir Putin is trying out.
How far can I push the West with this?
Well, NATO, which is supposed to protect us, is now going to get us into a war.
I want you to think about that.
Here's the great irony of NATO: NATO is supposed to be a deterrence.
And the member states of NATO, it got way too big, by the way.
NATO never should have been this big.
Because the whole idea of NATO should have been member countries that were contributing, not were just joining so that we could do the work for them.
Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States.
NATO partner countries, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia, Finland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Malta, the Republic of Moldova, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
They literally list Russia as a NATO partner country on the NATO website.
I don't think that's exactly right.
Look, NATO was formed as a way to try to deter the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Now it's doing the exact opposite.
As NATO has gone east, all of a sudden we're right up against Russia's border.
Now, there is this fear that Russia is going to take all over Europe.
I think that's an unrealistic fear.
I think Putin knows a lot better than that, obviously.
But wouldn't it be long past time for some of these other European countries to start to defend themselves?
We pay all the money for their defense budgets.
Now, the neoconservative project in Washington, D.C. says we must send troops there immediately.
And that's exactly what Joe Biden is contemplating doing.
In a meeting on Saturday at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, senior Pentagon officials presented Biden with several options that would shift American military assets much closer to Putin's doorstep.
Where's John Bolton?
John Bolton is just missing out here.
The administration officials said the options including sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern Europe, countries with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate.
You see that tenfold?
We could be sending 50,000 troops to Eastern Europe to go find, to go fight a kinetic war in a country that most people can't recognize 5,000 miles away.
The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about internal deliberations.
Continues by saying, Biden says, we're actually going to increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, et cetera, if in fact he moves.
They are part of NATO.
Wag the dog means that someone has things not going well domestically and they want something internationally to try and boost their declining poll numbers.
The problem is that this is not wagging the dog with Mohammed Gaddafi or with Bashar al-Assad in Syria or in Iraq.
This is trying to wag the dog against one of the strongest militaries on the planet.
Is that a concern of America?
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Reuters, NATO strengthens East European flank, while Russia accuses West of hysteria.
NATO sending reinforcements to Eastern Europe.
Kremlin says West, not Russia, is escalating tensions.
Welcoming a series of deployments announced by alliance members, NATO alliance members in recent days, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told NATO that they would continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies, including by reinforcing the Eastern part of the alliance.
Continues by saying, Biden weighs deploying thousands of troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics.
Separation of Powers in Action 00:15:19
Meanwhile, the United States says that they are going to be evacuating American citizens from Kiev.
Now, it's really important to realize this.
Every president violates this.
President Trump got close to it, but I think he was actually right within the constitutional authority.
If we're going to go to war with Russia, why don't we have a vote in Congress?
Well, the War Powers Resolution Act of 1973, also known as the War Powers Act, is a congressional resolution designed to limit the U.S. President's ability to initiate or escalate military actions abroad as part of our system of governmental checks and balances.
The law aims to check the executive branch's power when committing U.S. military forces to an armed conflict.
You see, we have separation of powers in our country.
We have checks and balances.
It's part of the constitutional design.
Now, the Constitution divides war powers between two branches.
The Founding Fathers knew this.
I think it's Federalist 30-something, you could look it up.
Where they said, in order to declare war, it should take at least two branches to send us into war.
Now, we now call it the Department of Defense.
We used to call it the Department of War.
I think it's a much more accurate depiction.
The Constitution divides war powers between Congress and the President.
Only Congress can declare war and appropriate military funding.
Yet the President is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
Now, despite that, we have been involved in many different skirmishes because under the War Powers Act, it gives you a 30- to 60-day window for you to be able to strike quickly and then go to Congress for funding.
Now, since the War Powers Resolution Act of 1973, sitting presidents have submitted over 132 reports to Congress.
These include the airlift and evacuation operations carried out in Cambodia in 1975, committing forces to Beirut, Lebanon in 1983, Persian Gulf War of 1991.
Challenges to the resolution include Ronald Reagan's deployment of troops to El Salvador in 1981, the continued bombing of Kosovo during Bill Clinton's administration in 1999, and military action initiated against Libya by Barack Obama in 2011.
The War Powers Resolution has been controversial since its inception.
Is it Federalist 41 Madison War Powers?
I wasn't that far off.
I knew it was in that kind of neighborhood.
I'm restudying the Federalists with our good friends Hillsdale College.
The War Powers Resolution has allegedly been controversial, but it really isn't.
The War Powers Resolution is supposed to tell a president that you are not Napoleon.
Now, war is a big deal.
We know that.
We are somewhat desensitized to war because many of our listeners, if you're 15 years old, you grew up in a nation at war internationally.
War is comprehensive.
It is brutal.
It is nasty.
And the problem is that war, as we know it, does not impact the home front like it used to.
We can, quote unquote, go to war, and it's 5,000 miles away.
It's like watching a TV show, it's like cheering for your favorite Netflix series.
That's how they have basically commercialized war.
We don't have war bonds anymore, draft rationing.
A lot of that is because we went to a fiat currency.
We got off a gold standard so we could just finance any sort of international adventure whenever we want.
The great Angelo Cotavia, who passed away unexpectedly this last summer, famously used to write, and he had a great book called The Ruling Class.
You guys hear that expression.
We use it a lot.
He came up with it.
He was probably one of the clearest foreign policy thinkers in the last 50 years.
And he had a belief that a nation should not go to war if you have widespread and serious domestic issues.
Let's see, do we have widespread and serious domestic issues?
We can't agree on whether or not a five-year-old should be vaccinated.
You think we can agree on whether or not we should send troops to go regulate the eastern border of Ukraine?
And you might say, Charlie, that's a red herring.
Those two things have nothing to do with each other.
They actually do.
Because if you think we can't agree on very simple domestic governance issues, how are we going to agree on troop allocation?
And by the way, is national morale high or is it low?
These are very simple questions that leaders should be asking.
So let's pretend that my whole argument that America has no role right now in actually regulating the eastern border, let's say that doesn't win over most Americans, which I think it does.
But let's pretend that the people in D.C. are convinced that it's their role to go play border cop, not of the American southern border, who cares about the Arizona, Texas, or New Mexico border, California border, no, about the Ukrainian border, because they're big into sovereignty, right?
Well, then, how about this argument?
The argument is that the morale of the country is so low right now, doing big things 5,000 miles away against countries that know how to fight is a really bad idea.
Cut 12, when asked, not a single participant in the Face the Nations focus group believed America is in a better place.
National morale is at an all-time low.
A wise country would say, huh, that's probably the worst time to go to war.
Play Cut 12.
During the course of the pandemic, we've been listening to Americans through Zoom to get their thoughts on COVID, the economy, and how the government is handling it all.
On Friday, we checked back in with six of them.
Who feels like we are in a better place now than we were a year ago?
Show of hands.
No one believes we're in a better spot now.
Every participant in the Face the Nation panel via Zoom, don't worry, says, nope, we're not.
So we're in a worse place now than we were a year ago.
Everyone knows it, including, I think that was a bipartisan panel, is what I was told.
And somehow now we want to go marshal troops to Ukraine.
If you have a loved one in the military, they might be deployed to the eastern border of Ukraine to go fight for something that has zero strategic political interest of America.
Don't let the neoconservatives in Washington, D.C. tell you otherwise.
Oh, it's very strategically important.
Why?
Because Ukraine pays your bills.
Why?
Because Hunter Biden sat on a corrupt Ukrainian energy company, Burisma.
And by the way, Connor, in the next segment, let's build out just kind of how corrupt this whole thing is about how we forget that Biden and his family made tons of money off of the Ukrainian government.
How is that not mentioned at all?
And let's go to cut, let's get cut 25.
This is the more dangerous thing.
So it's bad enough that our leaders want to get involved in this.
It's even worse because we have a leader that is now trying to compensate for bad poll numbers, low IQ, and deteriorating mental ability.
I don't say that lightly.
I feel bad for people that lose their mental acuity as they get older.
They just shouldn't be president.
Chuck Todd says, well, Biden is no longer seen as a competent and effective leader.
He's no longer seen as a good commander-in-chief.
Here's the danger in this.
The danger is Joe Biden sees this segment.
You know why?
He'll say, I'll show him 50,000 troops to Ukraine.
How weak do you think I am?
That's not out of the ballpark with these people.
Play cut 25.
President Biden's news conference on Wednesday was designed to kick off a second-year reset of his presidency.
Cap recapture his political identity, if you will.
But our new NBC news poll suggests Mr. Biden does need a reset because he's lost his identity a bit.
He's no longer seen as competent and effective.
No longer seen as a good commander-in-chief, or perhaps most damaging, as easygoing and likable.
In fact, just 5% of adults say Mr. Biden has performed better than expected as president.
And those 5% are trial lawyers, lobbyists, and I don't know who else would.
Oh, pharmaceutical executives.
That's right.
I am not exaggerating.
If we do not get the war powers resolution back into focus and Congress do their job, Biden might stumble us into a kinetic conflict with Russia.
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So the talking point in DC is that it's because of Biden's weakness that Vladimir Putin is trying to invade Ukraine.
Now, this is not totally wrong.
Joni Ernst is a nice person.
She's a senator from Iowa.
She's always been very good to us, spoke at all of our turning point events.
I think this is a pre-scripted kind of national security talking point.
And so I'm going to go cut six, then cut 19, and I'm going to tell you kind of where I think this could go terribly wrong.
Play cut six.
I think we have many options for deterrence when it comes to Russia, but we need to impose those now.
President Putin only understands strength and power.
They see a very weak administration, and President Putin sees every opportunity to do what he wants to do in Ukraine with very little pushback from the United States.
So that's not totally wrong.
I think it's a little bit short-sighted just to try to say that we need to focus strictly and solely on this idea that Putin only channels with strength or only respects strength.
It's probably true.
But where's the opportunity?
Well, the opportunity has been missed to try and say, okay, Putin, we're going to work with you to restrict China.
We're going to choke them out.
Let's go to cut 22.
Ukraine is an independent, sovereign country that has been attacked by an outside aggressor.
And this should be of great concern to every country internationally.
Because if Russia can do this to Ukraine, what's to stop other countries from doing this to neighbors?
And so that's Fiona Hill.
Remember her?
She says, if Russia can do this, Ukraine wants to stop this from other countries doing this to neighbors.
So basically, this is the domino theory argument that if Putin doesn't stop going into the border, then forget it.
Now, I actually am, I'm not defending Putin invading Ukraine.
What I am saying, though, is that this could be solved with a ruling class and a leadership class that's willing to pick up the phone to Vladimir Putin and say, hey, listen, knock it off, man.
Okay?
If there's some sort of annexation, we'll go to the Ukrainians.
We'll tell them to move their citizens out.
You want an extra hundred miles, whatever.
How about this?
You are going to give us 100 million barrels of oil in the next 30 days.
Gas prices are going down.
You even meet or breathe in the presence of Xi Jinping.
We're done.
And you might say, well, Charlie, that's overly simplistic.
Well, I actually think the people running our country are super corrupt and dumb.
So this is why Trump was able to actually keep this all in balance.
Now, Trump's instincts were so right with this.
Now, where was Trump attacked the most?
Not with the Russia hoax, not with all that, but Trump was attacked the most by the frenetic media in one city, Helsinki.
Remember the Helsinki summit in summer of 2000, I want to say 18?
Yeah, 2018?
It was the summer of the World Cup.
And Putin gave him that soccer ball.
The media went wild.
Angelo Cotavilla, as I mentioned previously, was the only person to write a favorable piece about it.
Angelo Cotavilla said, this is great.
Said, he's trying to bring Putin to the table.
He's trying to bring Putin to a place of partnership to try and squeeze out the Chinese.
Say what you will about Trump, anything you want about Trump.
He had a heterodox approach to trying to solve the war machine.
Willing to talk to Kim Jong-un, willing to talk to Vladimir Putin.
People knew that Trump would make good on his promises.
They didn't want to deal with it.
But instead of this whole kind of game of like, yeah, we need to be super strong against Putin and then he won't invade.
Yeah, that's probably somewhat true.
If there wasn't a 1.3 billion person menace in Asia that might take Taiwan at any time and continue their incursion on all things in the West, going to war is a big deal.
Saving Poll Numbers Through War 00:00:53
You should go to war for good reasons.
You should go to war as a defensive measure, not an offensive measure.
There's only been a couple times where Congress has actually authorized war in our history.
I don't think this would be one of them.
But we should all be very concerned that Joe Biden might want to use American troops to try and save his plummeting poll numbers and try to make himself relevant.
The Washington, D.C. drums of war are louder than ever before.
The American people don't want it.
Maybe if they listened to their voters, they wouldn't care.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us your thoughts as alwaysfreedom at charliekirk.com.
If you want to get involved with Turning Point USA, go to tpusa.com.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
God bless.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.
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