Clif High - clif's wujo - March 30, 2017

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March 30, 2017 - Clif High

21:55

clif's wujo - March 30, 2017

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	March 30th, just about 8 in the morning.
	Maybe a few minutes after, something like that.
	It's cold.
	In case I need it.
	We're still in chill mode up here in the northwest.
	But at least for the day, no rain.
	It's a good deal.
	There's a lot of different things to do discussions on.
	Markets, all different kinds of stuff.
	I'm going to step through some things here because I've had some questions.
	We had a crack attempt on our server.
	It got in the email server.
	It was my own fault.
	I didn't apply the appropriate patches.
	It only got to the namespace and it only were only able to change some of my list names around.
	That was it.
	It was the only area that was unprotected.
	So no big deal.
	I had questions about the markets and it's an issue of language.
	You have to understand that when we say that there's going to be collapse, crash, this kind of thing, doesn't mean everything stops thereafter, right?
	Just because the market collapses doesn't mean they don't try and pick it up and start it again the very next minute.
	And these days, so a lot of that's going to mean flash crashes.
	And so we're going to see a lot of those over the period of time from now through to the end of August.
	Basically crash and deflationary pressures that are going to cause black holes to try and suck up currency, which means that the central banks are going to continue to print currency.
	And a lot of that stuff started in March and it's going to build all the way through the month of April.
	It's going to build through the month of May.
	There's going to be a slight lull in certain aspects of it through June and early July and then it's going to build again and off we go.
	But the damage that we're going to see is going to be, should be evident here in these next few weeks in April.
	So it was a March 15th and then through the end of April period that we had identified as this bubble of chaos and confusion.
	I would argue that is indeed what's going on, especially if you're in like the YouTube business.
	If you're one of these people that took in millions of dollars from ad revenue and hired 20, 30 people to help you with your operation and you were what they called a big YouTuber and you had millions of followers and this sort of thing.
	Boy, your revenues are gone.
	Like not down.
	They're gone.
	And it has to do with the advertiser boycott.
	Advertisers are boycotting for a good reason, not just merely that they don't want their products associated with ISIS videos and stuff.
	There's also all of this clickbait kind of drama thing going on in YouTube anyway, prior to the, or along with the issue of the ISIS kind of thing.
	And this is where you get YouTubers fighting each other, doing anything they can, outrageous pranking, you know, stuff leading to, you know, near-fatal accidents, all different kinds of crap.
	Anything just to get clicked.
	Anything just to get eyeballs to watch because you make your money off the advertising and so you're making your money off the eyeballs.
	A lot of advertisers were rather outraged to find that their products were being associated first with philosophical viewpoints they don't agree with, but then also with these extremists that anybody can tell you are going to, you know, this will not end well.
	You know, you've got a guy out there that, you know, his claim to fame is he jumped off stuff into water.
	Well, one time he missed it by that much.
	And the poor bastard's in the hospital.
	So, you know, the advertisers are, I've talked to a few of them, you know, I sell a book on advertising and some of these guys have called me up or some email and we've sort of chatted.
	And a lot of them were quite concerned.
	The guy was thinking, oh my God, you know, what if you happen to have a video like that and there was your product for, you know, your advert for anything.
	But the juxtapositions that are coming up have just been wild.
	So they were quite concerned.
	And there is an advertiser withdrawal and an advertiser boycott at the YouTube level.
	And it's going to just devastate YouTube.
	YouTube makes billions of dollars off of ad revenue and it's all getting sucked out.
	Now YouTube had their own plan, or there appears to be a very larger plan at work, which is to make YouTube TV on demand.
	And if that's the case, you know, there would be approved news outlets, which there appear to be because none of the band seem to hit CNN, MSNBC, or any of these other lying fake news outlets.
	So they appear to be the favored children for the new YouTube TV on demand approach.
	And this really brings up another aspect of this that we should divert into.
	These people don't grasp that the innovation of YouTube is not YouTube TV on demand.
	It's not TV on demand.
	They're not going to be able to take the old broadcast media, move it over to YouTube, and have you consume it the same way that you used to consume TV TV, right?
	So they don't get, they've missed the whole concept of authentic and what makes something worth watching on YouTube.
	So CNN's going to puke on YouTube just like they're puking on broadcast.
	MSNBC, all of them.
	It's the same situation.
	They're not authentic at all in any of their propaganda media, and that isn't going to change just because they move over to YouTube.
	And the entertainment that they've been offering is propaganda, and it's not going to change either.
	So if we get to the situation where YouTube still sort of exists as it does now, you may find that they've got it, you know, segregated and where they say, okay, you know, over here is your approved news outlets, and these people can get advertising dollars associated with them and so on.
	And anybody else, nope, nope, you're over here.
	And anybody, you know, you can still go look, but we won't also show you in searches.
	So you'd have to figure out some way to find these people because the YouTube search wouldn't put you over into this part of their area.
	Now, there's a lot of reasons for them to keep this area because it's that base that, in essence, is the demand pull for all of YouTube itself.
	And so YouTube's got some serious problems.
	Their billions of dollars of revenue are gone.
	And that's because the advertisers cannot stand what's going on and can't figure out how to deal with it.
	Plus, it's also going to be stated, a lot of the advertisers don't know how to make social media work for them.
	There's like Procter Gamble and Facebook.
	So, and, you know, it can work really well.
	You can get huge levels of conversion, but it is not, the internet is just simply not broadcast media.
	You don't work it that way.
	You shouldn't have any of the same paradigms.
	You shouldn't even approach things the same way.
	You know, and I threw a lot of these concepts out.
	I wrote a little book about some of those things that I was able to make work.
	I was getting 82% conversion rates.
	And that was on, admittedly, that was on tweet engagements, but that led to a return on investment of something like 5,000%.
	And the metrics, I love being able to track and see that, oh, this campaign isn't working, and I'd better tweak that.
	And you do it in 13 minutes into the ad campaign.
	You know, it's not like you've got to go months and then get hit by a giant bill and say, oh, my God, that didn't work.
	So advertising, it can be highly effective, but not the way they've been doing it.
	Not the shoveling out vast quantities of money and then allowing algorithms to try and jam you into ad space on the hope and golly that, oh geez, maybe we'll get some kind of a connection here.
	It just doesn't work that way.
	So advertising on YouTube, advertising on all social media is failing.
	It's failing abysmally.
	And so, hooray, social media is going to die in its current form because the advertisers can't stand it.
	They don't like it.
	It won't work for them.
	And so they've got to change the whole world.
	And we're at that point right now.
	So admittedly, chaos is where we're at.
	If you're into any of the social media, you're aware of this.
	There's a huge amount of emotional froth that's building around this whole thing.
	People that, you know, were making literally, actually, up until like maybe, what was it, Monday, Sunday.
	Actually, it would have been Saturday, and so they would have found out Monday or so of this week.
	So let's say the 27th, it would have happened, say, the 26th through today, through the 30th, and they will start getting their stats off of their ad revenue things, and they'll see that, it just, it's gone.
	They don't have any.
	Now, me, I don't care.
	I never had any to begin with.
	I didn't like advertising.
	It was a pain in the butt.
	You got to go in extra steps.
	All I really wanted to do was to get the stuff up there.
	And to be honest, I don't make my money that way, right?
	I make money selling the reports, providing value and that sort of thing, not doing advertising.
	Now, it is true, I did do a commercial for a friend of mine, Jerry Durand at Durand Interstellar, interstellar.com.
	He's the guy with the structured water chalices, which I got one in the motorhome too, by the way, but it's just over there.
	And I'll probably end up making another commercial for him and a friend of his out of Australia.
	But as a rule, advertising, it's like, yeah, just a pain in the ass.
	They're fun to do the commercials and that sort of thing, but to actually have to manage ad campaigns and it gets to be work.
	I got enough work.
	I don't need any more of that shit.
	And especially with social media, you have to have a different kind of a paradigm in order for the thing to actually work for you as an advertiser.
	Anyway, so social media and its advertising are dying.
	It's going to be just fantastic to see what emerges.
	There's huge amounts of money in it.
	This has been proven.
	So it'll take it a long time to actually fall over dead, right?
	Simply because people will keep trying to resurrect it, trying to figure out ways to get around some of these objections, trying to solve the problems that exist now, as within any new media.
	And under the circumstances, fantastic time to just be observant and watch all of this.
	Just the opportunity to see the chaos develop around you and see how people react to it.
	Now, for those people that are into the YouTube business that are not advertisers, that may have made money off of advertising, you better start thinking and rethinking how you're going to do it if you rely on your work in media to make money, right?
	Because see, the thing is that the advertising model is going to go is puking all over itself.
	Advertisers don't like it for lots and lots of different reasons, mainly to do with the personalities that they ended up paying.
	And they weren't too happy about this.
	And so if you're a content creator, you better figure out ways to make money if you try and make the money off the content.
	There's dozens of ways artists have been doing it for centuries.
	What's going to happen with the YouTube and Facebook and Twitter and so on, all of the social media and all of their advertising, because the revenue is going to go, remember?
	Now, Twitter is trying to take over YouTube space by offering TV on Twitter, videos on Twitter.
	And Facebook is basically at least 60%.
	Well, let's say I don't deal with Facebook at all, but let's just say that those few times I've seen the screens, there's always a video at least in those little timeline strips.
	So I suspect that it's gotten to be heavily video-dominated anyway.
	And so under the circumstances, these other media were trying to figure out, these other platforms were trying to figure out where the hell to go with their advertising structure and how to make it work.
	And you have a lot of the advertisers that say, you know, never, never, never, never give creative people money.
	And this is what we have happen.
	You know, there were people trying to game the system.
	They would create drama just to get the clicks.
	Therefore, they got, because they drew such huge audiences and had, you know, millions of followers and so on, they got more dollars per view, causing more, a higher dollar per view or higher pennies per view bids for the ads on their sites.
	And so they just figured out how to game it.
	And it's true, if you leave anything in place long enough in a static fashion, people will figure out ways to game it.
	They're lazy, lazy bastards, but they've got very inventive minds, especially when it comes to that sort of thing.
	And they, you know, as the Brits say, everybody's on the fiddle.
	And so they're, well, yeah, I can tweak that so I can sit here and have an extra cup of tea and not have to work so hard.
	Any shadows or whatever, it's the crows flying around.
	They've come and gotten some food here.
	Anyway, so the advertisers are in deep, but it's going to alter social media as we go forward.
	People that are advertising or that make their money on social media better start coming up with plan B really quick because we're not going back to plan A. It can't happen.
	We will have the advertising come back, but not in any way that is going to be like what we've got now.
	It won't be this Wild West free-for-all kind of thing.
	And I think that's it for this particular one.
	But you've got tens of thousands of creators out there whose revenues have been just walked right off.
	And it has to do with the Advertisers legitimately not wanting algorithms placing linguistically.
	The language should, you know, I mean, YouTube, when they bring these things in, when they allow the uploads, runs the things through processing.
	Presumably, they do a speech-to-text, and then they should also be able to run analysis against the text.
	Yeah, it's going to take some time, and they'll have to figure out some ways to speed their processing if they want to be able to hold this position.
	But they should be able linguistically just to process through, extract more than synopsis, throw it into a database, attach it, and then have all of the words relative to that particular video.
	Then take a context of the upload characteristics of that video, add more knowledge to where the thing came from and who it is, and whether they're, you know, stand-up.
	Also, if they've got authenticated IDs, you know who everybody is.
	So it shouldn't be that difficult.
	You know, YouTube, I think, has got some serious work to do in order to overcome the objections.
	I don't think they'll have it by Sunday.
	Programmatically, they're looking at, well, it depends on the approach they would take, but it could be, you know, as much as a month or more.
	So we may see YouTube people, you know, begging in the street.
	Oh, former YouTuber, former YouTuber, you know, help please, former YouTuber.
	I don't mean to make light of it, but you know, it is funny.
	It's humorous.
	The idea that they're at the height of their success.
	I mean, it's a very Taoistic message here.
	At the height of the success, it's chopped off at the knees.
	And it's because the way that shit happens.
	And like I say, the YouTube community deserves a lot of the grief.
	It's not self-policing.
	There are no adults in the room.
	So it's like you get what you allow.
	And when you've got all those rowdy teenagers running around with cameras and crap, no wonder you get chaos.
	You know, if I was still a teenager, well, look, I even, I'm not a teenager and I still participate in the chaos, putting out weird shit there.
	How are they going to categorize my stuff?
	Anyway, though, so we'll see what I can chop out, what I can keep.
	It's fascinating.
	The YouTube controversy is spreading to all the social media and it's going to hit Google really hard in the nuts.
	They've just been kneaded repeatedly, three times at least, with this business.
	Billions of dollars sucked right out of the coffers and it's not going to get any better.
	They're currently right as we speak right now.
	You've got programmers, you know, slugging down the caffeinated beverages and shoving in pizza like mad trying to crank out code to fix this.
	It's not an easy fix that way.
	Got all the tools to fix it, I mean, in terms of the linguistic analysis and so on.
	They just don't have the concept of how the advertisers need to be treated with the kind of media that they've got.
	And to be quite honest, the advertisers are just flakier than hell if they think that the old broadcast approach is going to work.
	It just does not.
	It's not possible.
	It's stupid.
	And, you know, I've seen these ads, right, where it's the same damn ad.
	And it's, we can take an example.
	Why, even, you know, the new modern guys here, right?
	Like, let's take Ty Lopez, because they really inundated me with his ads there for a while.
	He did this one particular ad that I saw 25 times in the course of maybe six days.
	And there's no reason for that, okay?
	As an advertiser, let me clue you in, guys.
	It's like, yo, butthead, pay attention.
	You got the camera, you got the crew.
	Make 25 ads, not one long ad, make 25 short ads.
	Pop them up to me, you know?
	Let them cycle so I don't get bored with your shit.
	That's the way it is for everybody.
	So we've got the capability.
	It costs you less probably to create the 25 popcorn ads than it does to create the one that's as long as the same 25.
	And I'm quite certain you can get your message across in the 25 popcorn ads.
	But in any of them, and that, you know, I mean, it adds all kinds of stuff to your advertising campaign to take that approach.
	But my point is not to have a lecture on how to advertise, you assholes.
	You know, get it right, get it right.
	Okay.
	So, I've got real work to do.
	I've got to go get to the Trimoran.
	I've got to try some more welding.
	And I'm going to get off my advertiser rant here.
	Really pisses me off, though, because I was doing really well selling or you know, getting my ad rates up, my conversion rates, even on direct response to sales off of Twitter ads.
	It's like that was phenomenal.
	I think I got like 19% off of that, only like 11 or so off of Google.
	And Google was more expensive, there's no question.
	Less return, more expensive.
	So I didn't favor them so much.
	Concentrated on Twitter.
	Twitter is also real time.
	It makes a big difference in how you treat these media.
	Facebook is like, well, it's like their walls.
	Okay, look at the metaphors that the various media are using here.
	They have the timelines, but no, none of them are timelines except for Twitter because the stuff is short, brief, and it scrolls off.
	True, the same sort of thing seems to happen within Facebook, but you can go and retrieve it all and it's all a little bit more static and it's a wall.
	It's emails left tacked up to a wall.
	So, you know, the metaphors themselves tell you something about the different media and how to use that particular kind of a platform.
	You know, as an advertiser, you've got to be a little bit more creative than making your little 3x5 card, putting your push pin into it, and sticking it on the wall at the local food co-op.
	You've got to do more than that if you want to get the sales.
	And that's the old broadcast approach on the theory that people would go and see it.
	It just doesn't do well within the social media.
	And it's even worse when your particular 3x5 card is pegged up to a wall and you don't know who the hell's wall it is and what else your 3x5 card is competing with.
	And I get that.
	I really understand that.
	That's on their part, on the platform's part.
	It shouldn't be that difficult.
	It's a technical issue.

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