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Aired On: 1/8/2026
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I got Mal Pass and I got Joe Lavarnier over at Treasury.
Joe, we should be skipping around, lighting our hair on fire.
The productivity number, the trade deficit.
Of course, nobody, only Santelli wants to talk about it.
And that's why Rick Santelli is the great, Rick Santelli the Great.
Trade deficit, you cut the trade deficit in half.
Navarro and the team, it's working.
The productivity number hasn't been seen.
Now, wait for this, folks.
Connect the dots has not been seen since January 2020.
Who was President of the United States back then?
Donald Trump, before the Chinese Communist Party hit us with, and Fauci hit us with the pandemic.
Because remember, the fourth quarter of 2019 was Nirvana.
Low interest rates, no inflation, blue-collar wages rising higher than white-collar, high school graduates higher than college graduates.
It was literally the economic engine of President Trump of populist nationalism, cutting, you know, stopping illegal immigration.
All of it clicked.
You had the Biden years, we were handed a disaster.
La Vornier, you and Bessett's in Minneapolis.
That's why I said the other day to him: hey, with this thing happening in Minneapolis, you must, because this speech has been locked in for a couple of weeks.
You've got to go out there and talk to the business community and talk to citizens about what President Trump's economic package is, because that's the engine that's going to drive us through here.
And then people are going to realize: hey, the illegal alien situation is what's dragging the economy down.
Joe LaVarnier, can you walk us through the math that we heard this morning?
First was the president making sure with the Secretary's help and many others that we didn't have a massive tax hike, the biggest ever, occurring in 2026, solidifying those gains from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, but then encouraging other phenomenon, other tools, so that you get strong productivity growth and you get strong productivity growth through deregulation, cheap and abundant energy, raising the cost, lowering the cost of capital,
raising its return by having full expensing of capital expenditures, adding the novel approach of full expensing for factories.
And then you encourage investment in this capital formation, will lead to higher wages, rising compensation, what we saw in the Trump administration.
Although what we're seeing recently has been, Steve, even more impressive because numbers have really accelerated.
So the productivity number that Rick had mentioned was about 5%.
There are other measures of productivity, which actually, even from a core perspective, are even stronger.
What's known as non-financial sector productivity is rising even faster.
But the point is, a disinflationary boom has been laid in place, been created.
We're seeing it in the GDP numbers.
It's now just a matter of time before we see it in the job market.
And, you know, yesterday's Joltz numbers, I think, were misreported in the press.
It showed that the level of openings are down.
They came from a really high level, but that was because of all the supply disruptions that occurred during the pandemic.
We're essentially at a job openings rate.
That's exactly where it was during the first three years of the Trump boom back from 17 to 19.
So to me, things look great.
The trade deficit numbers are excellent.
It's happening, Steve, because exports are surging almost 30% annualized in the last three months, while imports are down.
They're almost down, 30% annualized.
So it's a great combination of what's happening, and it's playing out exactly the way President Trump would describe it and how Secretary Bessett and Batt envisioned it playing out itself.
You're starting to see the traction with the Trump plan and coming at Liberation Day being on April 1st, then the work through to get the supply side tax cut to make sure that we can turbocharge capital investment.
And now the conversions of that, the tariffs as two things, a forcing function to force people to come here and build manufacturing plants here, or if you don't, pay the tariffs or the tolling fee to get here.
President Trump said, yes, I think he thinks it's going to be a trillion dollars.
It's some big number.
But you're starting to see the green sprouts of the economic plan.
You can't turn an aircraft carry around immediately, but you can tell the direction this is going.
And you see it from the productivity numbers, you see it from the trade deficit numbers, you see it from the increase in exports and the decrease in imports.
I mean, everything that we've planned for, everything that Scott Besson and the president have walked through, you're starting to get the traction on that.
And we really haven't even gotten to the tax refunds and things that are going to happen in this spring.
And I think, Dan, you're going to see the big turbocharge for really what's happening with the supply-side tax cuts, sir.
Steve, what has been misreported or not reported, I should say, in the press is that in the first data we have from when President Trump took office to November shows real wage growth, blue-collar wages, what are known as non-supervisory production workers within the employment report, rising about one and a half, 1.6%.
That's a huge increase, one of the largest we've ever had to start a new administration.
Now, fast forward, you're into 2026, the no-tax on tips, the no tax on overtime, that will further lift nominal wages.
That's the result of President Trump's policies.
But importantly, equally important, is the president lowering the cost of living for key items such as energy.
You're seeing energy move substantially lower.
Gasoline prices nationally are only around $275, $280 a gallon.
That is significantly lower than where they've been.
That is a tax cut for everyday working Americans.
And as the inflation rate moves lower, that will further expand real wages, which then get the added kick from those productivity gains that are starting and are set to continue through 26 and beyond.
Yeah, so a disinflationary boom is one where the economy's underlying potential, its ability to create jobs, its ability to create income, its ability to create wealth, its ability to provide the goods and services that people want because the economy is growing quickly.
It's generating revenues.
It's lowering the deficit relative to GDP.
All the good things that economic theory tells us about how you raise living standards is starting to play out.
So a disinflationary boom is where the economy speed limit, we can grow faster.
We're not going to grow at the sub-2% rate, let's say the CBO predicts, and then they say there's going to be a debt Armageddon because, yeah, if we grew that week, we would have a problem.
Rather, we can grow at 3%, maybe even 4%.
And as that growth is accelerating, it's lowering the inflation rate because the economy could produce more because it's capable of running faster.
And the offshoot of that is workers, high profitability for companies that then are incentivized to reinvest back in the economy.
So far be it from me to give advice to the president or the staff or Secretary Brezza.
As you know, Besson was a contributor here for years, close friends, colleagues.
Alexander Priate, who you know very well, I think is the best communications person next to Caroline Levitt in the entire government, and Stephen Chung.
She's just a superstar.
But yesterday, the president signed an executive order, and we're going to have Malpass on here, and hopefully maybe Oscar Blue will be on tonight.
He took out 66 of these international organizations we're in.
A massive deregulation play, coupled with the news that's coming out.
So Caroline Levitt's going to have a briefing while the VP is going to be there.
I keep saying you got to force the media to cover the real news because they're going to just chase Trump's derangement syndrome all the time.
So let's give him something freaking to be deranged about.
His economic plan is working.
This massive deconstruction of the global administrative state is working.
And they're working together to drive productivity and an economy for working class peoples in this country.
We've got to force these people to cover it because they're not going to cover it.
They don't want to cover his speech today in Minneapolis.
They don't want to cover you here, taking Rick Santelli's numbers and data and putting it into a narrative that people understand of what's happening.
And yesterday was monumental.
In fact, Oscar Blue Ramirez is going to be on tonight, I think, hopefully with Natalie to say, hey, this migrant compact that's driven all this madness throughout the world, including Europe and here in the United States, we're out of.
President Trump with a stroke of a pen got out of 66.
So can you help us out there over Treasury?
I know you're a superstar.
They brought you in.
You're doing a great job.
But we have to force, you keep saying, and your phrase is right.
And I'm talking about the business media.
I'm not talking about influencers, you know, with some blog.
The Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times of London, the New York Times business section, all the big four refuse to cover the true story of what's happening to the American economy.
With President Trump and Scott Besson and others, Navarro working thing.
This news, just on the trade deficit should be the lead story in everybody's paper because that impacts American working-class families more than anything, sir.
Malpass is going to walk us through what actually happened yesterday to deconstruct the global administrative state and free the United States of America and her citizens next in the war room.
I got Kevin Freeman with me from Economic War Room, one of the experts, and also David Malpass.
Join us.
So, okay, Malpass, we've got the Trump economic plan is working.
The media doesn't want to talk about it.
We got the trade deficit, folks.
Massive.
The cut there shows you Trump's bringing manufacturing back here and exporting up 30%, imports down 30%.
At the same time, we're having full-spectrum energy dominance.
But, Malpas, you keep saying, Hey, I hear you, I hear you, I hear you.
But the globalists are aligned against you, they're aligned against this model, and they're particularly aligned against President Trump.
Now, you were the first to get to me last night and said, Hey, look, I don't think people understand the implications of the 66 he got out of, including the Global Compact on Migration and many others.
But he said, The big ones still exist, and they are united to break the populist nationalist economic model in the United States of America.
David Malpas, you know, some you've got some experience as you were the number three guy, I think, in Treasury in President Trump's first term, head of international.
But the reality is 66 organizations is the tip of the iceberg.
Globalism is the dominant theme.
So there is this opportunity.
President Trump is going to go to the World Economic Forum.
That's the Davos Forum in Switzerland.
So the world is going to view this as great for Switzerland.
They're going to raise the GDP forecast for Switzerland because all the Americans are coming in and spending money.
But it's an opportunity for President Trump and the whole team to make noise.
This is the United States against socialism and against globalism and elitism.
They should go in and make the point to the world that the reason for poverty is because governments and central banks are controlling your lives.
They're controlling your money and they're doing badly at it.
We just heard Joe Lavorgna talking about supply-side growth policies.
Those are working.
And the idea that there can be an economic boom, I want to tell that, and I hope the president and the administration can tell that to the people of Nigeria: that you can have an economic boom if you allow markets to operate and you get away from the control of your central banks.
There won't be the Islamic terrorists with coalition and killing Christians in Nigeria.
But what can President, what does President Trump have to do here?
Because he's got these big institutions.
We have a growth plan.
That's what the whole bet is.
We talk about this on the show all the time.
It's a risky bet, but you mitigate the risk because, as Scott said all the time, and you said, if you didn't do a supply tax cut this time, it was gone.
You didn't have another chance, right?
You had to go to another model.
We've got it, and we now know we've got GDP growth 4.3%.
You now had the backup numbers today.
Things are directionally moving in the right direction.
And you see the green sprout of the theory of supply sides actually working.
However, he's got institutions like the Federal Reserve, like the World Bank, like IMF, and these other globalist institutions that, through the executive order, he did not get us out of, et cetera.
And as you've talked about, they are anti-growth and their policies are anti-growth.
Before we lecture the Nigerians or the rest of the world of the benefits of capitalism, we got to have capitalism here.
This is my whole point.
We don't have a capitalist system.
We have a corporatist system.
And the driver and one of the foundational elements of the corporatist system is a central bank and the lords of easy money on Wall Street that fight against populist economics.
What's your recommendation?
President of the United States thinks very highly of you.
What's your recommendation to the president of the United States?
That we got to take the torch to the enemy here, sir.
And there needs to be new models, sweeping reform of the models.
You know what?
The central banks around the world, it's not just the Fed, it's the IMF and central banks worldwide, think that inflation targeting works.
It doesn't at all.
We need a price rule monetary policy.
That's a core part of the supply side.
And that's consistent with what President Trump wants.
That's dollar dominance.
You know, you're right that we're getting toward energy dominance, but we're still weak on the dollar.
And that gives us the new investment into the U.S. that's going to allow us to rebuild all of the supply chains.
So that needs to be core changed at the Federal Reserve.
I think Davos is an opportunity to say it: that we stand for prices being stable.
And that means central banks have to stop with their stupid models: the Phillips curve, the Nairu model, the QE.
You know, Secretary Besson has been really clear on that not working.
It causes income inequality.
But what did the Fed do on December 11th?
They announced another round of QE, the expansion of their balance sheet.
So it's going to make conditions worse for people at the bottom of the scale as they protect the top end.
One good piece of news, Steve.
Last this morning, Secretary Besson came out and closed the U.S. contribution to the Green Climate Fund.
So they started last night with 66, and they were building on that today.
So I think the momentum can be very clear to the world that we're stopping globalism, we're stopping the elitism, and we're stopping the models that hold us back.
The 10-year yield, however, was up this morning.
It's 4.18 way above the 10-year yield in China.
So you know something is wrong with the models when we're paying more for money than China is paying.
That's because we have stupid central bank models.
Tell you what, we're going to have you on again and go through the second wave of the 66, the bigger and the bigger ones and the gnarly ones.
Hopefully, the Wall Street Journal, Paul Giga, and the team over there will allow you to continue to put those great op-eds up on the Wall Street Journal.
We've had a major interview with one of the senior guys in the Treasury Department about the economic speech Scott Betson's going to make today in the numbers.
That's Joe Lavarnier.
We've had David Malpass, former head of the World Bank, and the number three guy in the Treasury Department, President Trump's historic first term.
We've got Kevin Friedman, economic warfare, war room.
So we've covered capital markets in the economy, and we still haven't done enough.
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All of your work, every dream you have is about to turn into a nightmare.
Kevin Friedman, you're one of the toughest hombres I know when it comes to populist nationalist economics.
Walk me through.
The book's coming out in the spring, Four Horsemen, but you've got these six things that are going to destroy America, and they seem like they're linked.
Brian Harrison, for all your big talk, all your big talk down there and everything you talk about.
Yesterday on Drudge in the left-hand column, which is kind of their lead column, they have Texas A ⁇ M outlaws Plato and they blame Brian Harrison from Texas.
What in the hell is going on down in Texas A ⁇ M, brother?
We're not teaching philosophy.
We're not teaching the classical masters of Athens and Rome, sir.
There are few things that taste better in the morning than a great cup of freshly brewed coffee.
But I'll tell you what, Steve, liberal tears from leftist progressive Marxist ivory tower academics are one of them.
And let me tell you, you know, this is a completely manufactured scandal from the left-wing inmates that have been allowed to run the asylums in our Texas public universities for many years.
They are crying crocodile tears mixed with some real tears now because for the first time, thanks to the victories that I've been able to deliver down here in Texas against transgender indoctrination, by the way, with a massive assist from grassroots patriots like the posse, we've been able to finally force out the liberal DEI advocate Obama professor or president of Texas A ⁇ M, liberal transgender indoctrinating professors.
And what's going on now is a complete hissy-fit temper tantrum by these left-wing progressives manufacturing a scandal.
Liberal academics at Texas A ⁇ M have concocted a fake story where they slipped in a few sentences from Plato into the section in a course on transgenderism that they knew was going to get cut.
And then they run to their liberal mouthpieces and their allies in the mainstream media.
And next thing you know, BAMO, a fake scandal that's spreading across the country by the liberal mainstream media.
No, Texas A ⁇ M has not banned Plato.
But what is happening is that for the first time in well over a decade, we have been able to force some constraints and some limitations on transgender indoctrination.
He was like the Brad Pitt of it all, and Socrates was like a sergeant.
But what did they cut?
Why did they focus?
I know why they focused because they wanted a drudge link with Plato with the statue saying Brian Harrison and a bunch of right-wingers at the war room and the war room posse have now driven out classical education, which the Aggies, as we know, you guys get in, there's so much classical education down there at Texas A ⁇ M.
But what were they selectively saying that was wrong with Plato and is your thing trying to get rid of this transgenderism indoctrination?
No, because after the massive, I mean, one of the biggest successes we've had against liberal indoctrinations in the country, we were able to force down here, again, with the posse.
We removed the DEI and transgender advocating president of the university.
And so the leadership of Texas A ⁇ M finally got the message, hey, maybe we need to do something about all this transgender indoctrination on campus.
And so what they've done is they're doing reviews now.
And if there are syllabus that have explicit transgender advocacy, which yes, tons of them did, they're saying, hey, remove that part from the syllabus.
So what it looks like happened here is a liberal professor, knowing this was going to happen, changed his syllabus, put in a couple sentences from Plato in a section that he knew wasn't going to make the cut.
And then when it didn't make the cut, he's screaming bloody murder, these alligator tears.
This is a total, total forest.
But here's the bigger issue, Steve, is while we've been able to, again, with the posse, enact the biggest reform and biggest victory against transgender indoctrination, we still have a lot of work to do because what we're seeing here is that this leftist, cancerous, transgender DEI indoctrination, this rot and this cancer has metastasized to almost every organ in higher education in Texas.
And in fact, a formal group of faculty members at Texas A ⁇ M just a couple weeks ago formally recommended to reinstate the transgender indoctrinating professor that we were able to get fired.
So this just shows how deep the rot runs.
We have a lot more work to do.
And the fact, and it just continues to expose that the inmates have been running the asylums in higher education at Texas public universities for a long time.
So we've made tremendous progress with the help of the posse, but we've got a lot of work to do.
And again, if you want to study this kind of stuff, you know, transgender advocacy or how women of hip-hop pushing back against the male gaze, yes, that's a real course at Texas A ⁇ M. You know, if you want to study that stuff, there's no censorship here.
There's no First Amendment issues like the left-wing press wants to say.
You study that nonsense, fine, but do it with your own damn money, not on the backs of my hardworking and already overtaxed 30 million men and women of the state of Texas, who I'm proud to fight for.
I believe it's a direct quote from a syllabus that I obtained a copy of.
Yes, women of hip-hop push back against the male gaze.
Yes, that is literally being taught at my alma mater, Texas.
And here's the thing.
People think I'm attacking Texas A.
This is ridiculous.
I'm a proud member of the Fighting Texas Aggie class of 2004.
I love Texas A ⁇ M, and I am trying to restore Texas A ⁇ M to its pre-woke glory, get the focus back on engineering, agricultural, mathematics, the basics of education, so that Texas can have the best, highest rated, most educated workforce in the entire country.
Can you just talk to the nation now about, just for a minute or two, Ron DeSantis yesterday said that he's recalling the Florida legislature to kick in the redistricting.
We had an Epic Fail in Indiana.
Just talk to people how important this was and what we had to do with your leadership and the folks at Patriot Mobile to get Texas to move.
Of course, Abbot is now saying, hey, for me, it was his plan from the beginning.
He told the president, you know, I would have done eight, but Harrison and Bannon and these guys held me back.
They only wanted to fight.
Just give me a minute on the battles there around the country and how patriots have to step up for this redistricting fight, and we got to do it now.
We should have gotten more than five seats, which, yes, we absolutely could have if we'd have had more courage coming out of Austin.
So look, it's a good thing we got the five seats.
I do not believe it would have happened except for the prairie fire that was lit by the posse and by grassroots patriots across the country.
We got the five.
We should have gone bigger.
But here's the message I would give to my lawmakers, not just my colleagues, my counterparts, conservative lawmakers in red states like Florida.
Ignore the noise in the mainstream media.
The left-wing, the Democrats, CNN, MSNBC, they're going to run the same playbook, whether you add one Republican seat or you add 10 Republican seats.
So go if you can get it.
If the voters of your state will endorse you doing it and you've got the votes for it, you go and you get every Republican seat you've got because it's not like the whole narrative of the national media is totally on its head.
It's wrong.
They're saying, well, Democrat states like California are responding to Texas.
This is nonsense.
The left-wing media and the Democrats have no problem with redistricting to maximize partisan political advantage.
They're just mad that Republican states like Texas and Florida are finally getting into the game.
So, if you're a lawmaker in Florida, say thank you to your governor who's calling you back to the Capitol.
And you pass the boldest, most aggressive, make sure it's lawful, but pass the most aggressive, ambitious map you can to maximize the number of Republicans that you can send to the U.S. Congress because the stakes could literally not be higher.
We are talking about what may or may not determine whether the United States Congress falls into the hands of the radical Marxist progressive leftist Democrats and whether or not President Trump gets to enact a four-full year term to make America great again.
The stakes couldn't be higher.
Fight as hard as the Democrats, fight harder than the liberal media.
Do the right thing for your voters, the freedom-loving patriots in Florida, Texas, and all across the country.
And I got to tell you, from citizens of this country that are not Minnesotans, folks, what is happening up there with Walls and that mayor, not acceptable.
And you're embarrassing yourself in front of the world right now.
Mike Lindell, one more time.
Where do they go?
What number do they call to get you to take a couple of calls?
At that point a federal agent stand said, get out of the effing car when a guy and not just that, when he grabs the thing to have you out got to comply, got to comply and there's, there's a federal agent standing in front of her car.
So then she tries to flee the scene of the crime that she created and by doing that she started to run over a federal agent and he fell back on his training and that the federal agents, they have no duty to retreat.
He doesn't have a duty to retreat.
She does.
So he, he fell back on his training.
He unholstered his weapon and shot her.
It's her fault, she created the whole situation.
Unfortunately, she's dead.
These and the reason these people are doing this is because of the political rhetoric that comes from politicians.