April 19, 2023 - Bannon's War Room
48:50
Participants
| 
| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| This is the primal scream of a dying regime. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on these people. | |
| I got a free shot at all these networks lying about the people. | ||
| The people have had a belly full of it. | ||
| I know you don't like hearing that. | ||
| I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. | ||
| It's going to happen. | ||
| And where do people like that go to share the big lie? | ||
| MAGA Media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? | |
| If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. | ||
| Yesterday, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, went to Wall Street. | ||
| He did not tell the wealthy or the powerful on Wall Street that it was finally time for them to start paying their fair share of taxes. | ||
| That didn't come up. | ||
| Other than say they're going to renew the $2 trillion tax cut. | ||
| Anyway, I won't... Instead, he proposed huge cuts to important programs that millions of Americans count on, millions of middle-class, suburban, as well as inner-city folks. | ||
| He threatened to become the first speaker to default on our national debt, which took over 230 years to accumulate. | ||
| He threatened to be the first one to default on the debt, which would throw us in a gigantic recession and beyond, unless he gets what he wants in the budget. | ||
| You've got to ask yourself, what are MAGA Republicans in Congress doing? | ||
|
unidentified
|
What should terrify every American is that the full extent of DHS's abuse of power against its own citizens are still largely unknown. | |
| The public is only recently learning the degree to which the department's cybersecurity and infrastructure security agency, CISA, was employed to surveil and censor American citizens' social media for what it concluded to be misinformation and disinformation. | ||
| What was the result? Statements about COVID-19 that are now supported by evidence were flagged as disinformation. | ||
| Statements, including my own, that were once labeled by our government as disinformation such as opinions on the efficacy of masks, naturally acquired immunity, and the origins of COVID-19 are now supported by the majority of people and by the evidence, but were labeled by the government as misinformation. | ||
| The government worked with social media, in fact, to censor these opinions. | ||
| This is something that shouldn't happen in a free country and is contrary to the spirit and the law of the First Amendment. | ||
| In 2021, DHS even put out a video encouraging children to report their own family members to Facebook for disinformation if they challenge the U.S. government narratives on COVID-19. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Does that not sound like something out of 1984? | |
| Does that not sound like something out of Stalin's Russia that our government's trying to get our kids to report their parents? | ||
| I mean, that's crazy. Can you imagine? | ||
| Your agency's putting out a video to tell kids to report their parents if they say something like, well, maybe children don't need to be vaccinated. | ||
| I still say that because it's the truth. | ||
| The risks for the vaccine are greater than the disease for COVID for children. | ||
| It's a different for the elderly and those who are tired of the disease, but that's an opinion based, in fact, based on peer review papers. | ||
| But that's not the government shouldn't get involved with trying to censor and restrict my ability to say these things. | ||
| In reality, the most significant source of disinformation during the pandemic with the most influence and greatest impact on people's lives was the U.S. government. | ||
| The greatest purveyor of disinformation has been the U.S. government. | ||
| It is Wednesday, 19 April in the year of our Lord, 2023. | ||
| You're in the war room. | ||
| We're going to talk today about how we're going to pay for this mess and exactly what you are paying for. | ||
| We are jammed up. | ||
| I want to start with Russ. | ||
| I got Russ Vogt, Cortez, and Navarro out of the box. | ||
| Let's go to Russ Vogt. Russ, there's all types of rumors around everywhere. | ||
| There's intense negotiation. | ||
| In fact, right before I walked here in the set, my phone was blowing up with a couple of members of Congress that said there's conferences going on right now, meetings going on, there's lots of discussion. | ||
| Can you tell our audience where we stand on all this? | ||
| Because this is the Creditors Committee. | ||
| You're the lead advisor to the Creditors Committee. | ||
| They want to know what's going on this morning. | ||
| Absolutely. What you have right now is the part of all of the work that's gone in over the last several weeks for Kevin McCarthy to take the views of conservative members, the grassroots, Put them into a framework of demands on the debt limit and come forward this week publicly and begin to get the votes to get that passed. | ||
| And he did a speech on Monday. | ||
| We previewed that last week. | ||
| He then went and talked to his conference yesterday morning. | ||
| And he's trying to have the conversation with the members. | ||
| And we're in this new style of coalition government where you have Conservatives who are no longer backbenchers participating in what the demands are going to be, and they're putting that forward to be able to get the votes, to be able to start this process, and show Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden and this town that there are 218 votes To pass something, and the question is, is that passing something going to be big enough to save our country? | ||
| I believe what they are putting forward with $4.6 trillion in savings, an immediate fight on woke and weaponized government spending this year, repealing the Inflation Reduction Act and energy credits and all the spending in that bill. | ||
| Repealing the student loan bill and all the COVID spending is exactly the kind of thing that they need to do to start this process. | ||
| But we are only in inning three of a nine-inning game. | ||
| It's going to take some while, and this is going to play out over the next few months. | ||
| And over that time, we're going to have to demand that these cuts be enacted, or Joe Biden doesn't get a dime of his debt limit to be able to govern as he thinks he wants to. | ||
| He has to govern on the terms of the Make America Great movement. | ||
| Okay, pull the camera back for a second because you've laid up, we love getting nomenclatures to the audience and talk about process and the statics and dynamics of negotiations. | ||
| There's two phrases I want you to explain to us again because you've been saying, hey, we've moved from Old Testament, we're now talking New Testament, a whole new way to look at things. | ||
| Plus, That you're saying that this could break the cartel. | ||
| Walk me through both of those, what we're talking about this negotiation. | ||
| What is it about breaking the cartel and why is this what you consider New Testament, a new era of kind of republicanism? | ||
| Really, really important point, and that is House conservatives are at the seat. | ||
| They have the Rules Committee. | ||
| They have the Appropriations Committee in independent factions that allow them to direct in conjunction with Leader McCarthy, Speaker McCarthy. | ||
| He's got a ton of power, but he's in coalition-style government. | ||
| He has a junior partner that are no longer backbenchers. | ||
| So this is not House conservatives raging against what John Boehner would put on the floor. | ||
| This opening product is informed by what the demands are of the people who are sitting in the House Freedom Caucus, the House Rules Committee, the House Appropriations Committee, both of which them have independent members that can vote on behalf of their faction, House Freedom Caucus. | ||
| So you have Jake Sherman out there. | ||
| He's a political a kind of regime reporter losing his mind this morning because of the effectiveness and the knowledge that this is an opening product. | ||
| This is what the House Freedom Caucus would have articulated in their press release on how the demand should go. | ||
| That's what's different about this. | ||
| And if it doesn't work out, we're in inning three. | ||
| If it doesn't work out in inning four or inning five, Who has real power to make sure it gets out of that cul-de-sac? | ||
| The House Freedom Caucus. | ||
| So that's what this is New Testament. | ||
| You have some people saying, well, it's not regular order. | ||
| This or that, again, this is House conservatives have real power and are executing it in conjunction with Speaker McCarthy. | ||
| Now, every member has a vote. | ||
| They're trying to figure out the fine prints of the details. | ||
| Am I going to like this? Do it goes far enough? | ||
| And all of that's legitimate. | ||
| But in terms of the flow of this week, This is moving towards—this is how, if we're trying to win, to be able to use this leverage point in the summer to crush woke and weaponized bureaucracy, this is part of how you would structure that fight. | ||
| And I'm really positive this morning I need to read the bill when it finally comes out. | ||
| But from what I can tell right now, what I'm judging—I'm judging execution at every step of the way. | ||
| This isn't—we're in a good place and we're moving in a good direction. | ||
| So look, the war room posse and the creditors committee, we're at not one penny up, do rust votes, prioritization of payments, enough cash comes in, we never default. | ||
| So the hardliners are the hardliners. | ||
| But what I'm hearing is on the table is a trillion and a half to two trillion dollar bump, which would basically take you to next spring, to the debt ceiling. | ||
| But... We're talking concomitantly at least a trillion, maybe a trillion and a half dollars of real cuts, not over 10 years, but real cuts in the short term. | ||
| Can you explain to people that? Because the cuts we're talking about, it's not this thing about get to a balanced budget in 10 years. | ||
| The Andy Biggs of the world and these guys are talking real cuts, demonstrable cuts, out of woke and weaponized, but done in period zero. | ||
| Is that correct? Correct. | ||
| So that's what's different about this, is it's not just the 10 years of setting up the framework for the cuts to happen, but you have a trillion dollars to be able to say, we're getting rid of the COVID bailouts, we're going to get rid of the IRS agents, we're going to get rid of the student loans. | ||
| Unobligated balances. And that annual process, which I'm the most excited about, the 20 % cut that works out to be like a 30 % cut or a 50 % cut of foreign aid, huge structural cuts to the bureaucracy are a part of this framework. | ||
| That is what would happen in year one. | ||
| Now, there's a lot of questions about making sure that gets executed, actually passed and sent to the president's desk. | ||
| I have a lot of opinions on that, and I think we've got to monitor that carefully. | ||
| But how do you structure that fight? | ||
| That's what this week and next week is about. | ||
| And I love that. I think the war room possibility is exactly right. | ||
| Not a dollar of debt limit increase until these cuts are being enacted. | ||
| And how you get to that place is going to be inning by inning, but that's the right posture, and we've got to be sending that to the members of Congress because that's what's business as usual, and we can't have that. | ||
| The other thing that's—I just want to make sure we got this right for the posse— That I think is a huge positive. | ||
| That the way it's structured now, this rolls into, we have this, first off, it's a rolling process. | ||
| You also have this fight coming again in the spring, early summer of 2024, right at the end of the primary season, right before the convention. | ||
| So it becomes front and center in the 2024 campaign, which Schumer and all these guys always want to kick it to after the campaign. | ||
| The structure that we have now of the process Means that literally for the next two years, this is a fight over taking the Leviathan down and cutting the spending. | ||
| Is that essentially what this process looks like to you? | ||
| You nailed it. And that's why I think that's part of the New Testament of doing it a new way, is that every year you would have some real leverage point that can't be kicked in to ensure that the cuts can happen in every single year that gets us to a balanced budget. | ||
| So the big problem we have, Steve, is that we work so hard to have this moment in time and a leverage point. | ||
| We don't know what the politics are going to be next year or the year after, but we know that we're going to have to be doing work then to either maintain the cuts we did this year or to additional ones because of the economic environment that we're in. | ||
| This ensures that we have the sword of Damocles every spring, every summer to force the cartel to come out of the closet, out of the backroom deals, and get to the floor of the House And force them to be at our numbers. | ||
| I think this puts us on the road to doing that, and I think that's the kind of thing that we are seeing that we've never been able to see on the other side of the Speaker's power-sharing deal in January. | ||
| All the criticisms of the chaos of the first week of January, the reason we have ordered a process today and able to really have leverage points is because of that week. | ||
| Am I correct in that? | ||
| Right. And a central contention that you've had, Steve, for years is that they always want to come out to us and they say the populist, the MAGA movement, they can't govern. | ||
| And what the mainstream media has been doing for the last three months is it's all going to be chaos. | ||
| Kevin McCarthy can't get it done. | ||
| House conservatives will never help him. | ||
| And I've been saying that is not true. | ||
| House conservatives knew when they signed the power-sharing agreement that they would be governing because, for the first time, they had real power, and they could ensure that their voters' interests were at the seated table. | ||
| This is an opportunity to disprove what the Jake Shermans of the world, the Politicos, the Jake Tappers of the world, that says that our folks can't govern. | ||
| And I think you're going to see that in the next two weeks. | ||
| Russ, how do people keep up with you on social media because you're putting stuff up nonstop and how do they get to the site? | ||
| At RussVoteAmericaRenewing.com and we'll keep you updated. | ||
| Appreciate the time. | ||
| Russ, incredible. Thank you very much. | ||
| Get back into the negotiating room. | ||
| Okay, we're going to take a short commercial break here. | ||
| We're going to return. We've got Cortez. | ||
| We've got Navarro. We're going to break this all down. | ||
| We're not chasing noise today. | ||
| We're focused on signal. | ||
| The signal we're focused on is how do we save our country from an economic and financial debacle that will basically overwhelm generations to come. | ||
| Short commercial break. Back in the warm in a moment. | ||
|
unidentified
|
We rejoice when there's no more. | |
| Let's take down the CCP! Okay, we're in the middle of this fight. | ||
| I want everybody to go to birchgold.com to make sure that you get the end of the dollar empire, particularly the third installment. | ||
| It's totally free. Third installment, the debt trap. | ||
| We talk about everything that's going on today and about the negotiations. | ||
| Also, since Japan, India, China, Russia are buying gold nonstop, you might want to talk to Philip Patrick and the guys to get all the free information about your IRA and 401ks and precious metals. | ||
| Just check it out today, but make sure that you get all of the information we're putting out about the end of the dollar empires. | ||
| We told you a couple of years ago we're entering the phase of the politics of money. | ||
| Right there, Russ Vogt laid out. | ||
| This is going to be a continual, tough negotiating process. | ||
| Because remember, we're a going concern, but we're bankrupt. | ||
| This is a bankruptcy. This is how bankruptcy negotiation goes. | ||
| And that's why you're head of the creditors committee. | ||
| And it's your say so. | ||
| Because remember, quite frankly, there's 40 votes, 50 votes that we have. | ||
| So they can't do anything without those votes. | ||
| That means they can't do anything without this audience. | ||
| We're going to get into more details of this with Dr. | ||
| Peter Navarro and Steve Cortez. | ||
| Steve, first, I did that cold open. | ||
| Because I wanted to compare and contrast this whole thing of how we pay for it and what we pay for. | ||
| But then you get down to the heart of it. | ||
| What is this government actually doing? | ||
| What is Leviathan doing? And you got there. | ||
| You got Rand Paul, one of the best guys in the U.S. Senate. | ||
| He's just laying in, and it gets back to the... | ||
| It gets back to the pandemic. | ||
| It gets back to this whole thing of trying to crush, you know, the free speech dissent. | ||
| It's just it completely. | ||
| And why are we paying for the woke and weaponized? | ||
| Steve Cortez. Steve, you make an important point here. | ||
| It's not just the economic calamity. | ||
| That's terrible enough on its own. | ||
| But what is government, what is Leviathan doing with this massive amount of money that is crushing the prosperity of the American people? | ||
| It's not investing in America, even though they use that term. | ||
| They throw that term quite a lot. | ||
| It is oppressing Americans. | ||
| It is inflicting tyrannical mandates upon Americans. | ||
| It is making Americans not just poorer, but also far less free. | ||
| And Steve, I want to point out, you know, right now, this showdown that we're having in Washington, D.C., it is tense, no doubt. | ||
| But it's also very exciting because it's incredibly consequential. | ||
| And to all the deplorables out there who worked their tails off last November to earn this victory of control of the House, I want you to quickly give yourself a pat on the back. | ||
| And I say quickly because then you've got to get right back to work. | ||
| But all the people who donated, who put out yard signs, who made calls, who knocked on doors, who encouraged their friends and family to get out and vote, we earned this seat at the table by taking the gavel away from Nancy Pelosi. | ||
| And now we have the showdown that we all wanted to try to reclaim our prosperity and put the country back on a trajectory toward non-inflationary growth. | ||
| Now, to give the immediacy of this situation, I'm going to give a live, almost real-time update, as real-time as we can get. | ||
| We have numbers through the end of March on what the deficit is doing right now in the United States. | ||
| So if we can please pull up Chart number three. | ||
| This shows the deficit through March of this year. | ||
| This information comes from the Bipartisan Policy Center, which is not a right-wing organization at all. | ||
| It was founded by Tom Daschle and George Mitchell. | ||
| That's where I'm getting my numbers. | ||
| So through March, which is the latest we have, revenues for the federal government have decreased year-over-year by $2 billion. | ||
| Outlays have increased By $182 billion, a 36 % increase year-over-year. | ||
| And so far, the budget deficit is roughly doubled on a year-over-year basis. | ||
| So, Steve, think about how exorbitant the borrowing and spending was last year, okay? | ||
| We took that untenable, totally unstable level, and we have made it markedly worse so far this year. | ||
| The situation is dire. | ||
| Cortez, slow down for a second. | ||
| This is the first time I've seen this. | ||
| It's fascinating. Let's go back and do that all over again. | ||
| I want to make sure I comprehend it. | ||
| So I know the audience is probably ahead of me in this. | ||
| Just hit rewind and take that again. | ||
| If we can put chart three up there again. | ||
| Again, this is from the Bipartisan Policy Center. | ||
| These are updated totals through the month of March. | ||
| Revenues for the federal government, tax receipts, because Biden's economy is crashing into a ditch, the revenue, if you think of the United States like a company, the revenue is down. | ||
| It is down by $2 billion year over year. | ||
| By the way, one of the reasons it's down, Steve, which the Bipartisan Policy Center Policy Center also pointed out, and I congratulate them for doing this because it's generally a sort of Washington uniparty organization. | ||
| One of the reasons it's down is last year there was a $60 billion benefit from the Fed who was making profits on its interest rate bond-buying program. | ||
| It is now losing money massively month after month. | ||
| So we have lost that tailwind. | ||
| So losing that tailwind combined with the weak Biden economy means Revenues in the federal government down by $2 billion. | ||
| At the same time, the spending is exploding. | ||
| Outlays, spending increased by $182 billion. | ||
| And Steve, let me show you one of the real-world ramifications of this in terms of inflation, what this means. | ||
| We can go to chart number two, please. | ||
| I want to show you agricultural prices. | ||
| Americans are understandably just aghast when they go to the grocery store. | ||
| And middle-income folks, especially if they have larger families, Steve, they are struggling simply, literally, to put food on the table. | ||
| That's not a metaphorical statement. | ||
| That's a literal statement. So what I'm showing you right here is the last three months, this is the agricultural ETF, exchange-traded fund, meaning in one ticker, the ticker is DBA, you get basically all of the physical agricultural commodities put into one, so pork bellies, Lean cattle, soybeans, wheat, all of it, corn, okay, put into one single ticker. | ||
| That's the last three months. | ||
| Notice what ag is doing recently. | ||
| So these are the input prices. | ||
| These are the wholesale prices at the farm, at the feedlot, that are going to become your prices very soon at the restaurant or the grocery store. | ||
| In the last three months, Up roughly 10%. | ||
| And these two charts are directly related, Steve. | ||
| It's not because we're having problems out there because there's some sort of severe drought out there in the country. | ||
| No. It's because of the chart that I showed previously, Washington's profligacy, its exorbitant borrowing and spending, continues to fuel inflation throughout the US economy. | ||
| And the place where that inflation right now is most punishing, particularly for middle and lower income folks, is in food, is at the grocery store. | ||
| And you see it reflected in that chart of DBA. So I hope that those two charts combined. | ||
| Provide a sense of urgency out there and convey the immediacy of this situation. | ||
| That's the terrible news is we are in a corner. | ||
| The great news is we have leverage. | ||
| We earned leverage. | ||
| We earned the seat of the table. | ||
| We have the gavel for the House of Representatives. | ||
| And right now, it's showtime. | ||
| I mean, it really is. And like I said, it's tense, but it's exciting. | ||
| It's going to be tense and because this audience is going to be at the forefront of it. | ||
| Let me connect some dots here. | ||
| One of the reasons you heard Chip Roy come out yesterday and say, hey, something is on the table. | ||
| You've heard us talk about clawbacks of money that hadn't been spent from – The pandemic relief, things like this. | ||
| You also heard Chip Royer say, hey, I want to shut down, reverse the Inflation Control Act, which was really just build back better in a slightly smaller. | ||
| Let's go back to the summer of 22. | ||
| The Democrats thought in the summer of 2022 they were going to lose the Senate. | ||
| This is why I remember Joe Manchin got old-time religion and came back and all of a sudden out of nowhere he had this. | ||
| That was the Inflation Control Act. | ||
| The reason you see the bigger spending, I just want people to make sure they understand this. | ||
| You had the bill we passed of the huge omnibus bill at the end of the year, which is the spending for the year. | ||
| But in addition, you've got all these other things they passed. | ||
| That's when you see this spending exploding. | ||
| It's even bigger than the deficits that were forecast just in the regular monster Leviathan omnibus bill that they passed. | ||
| You've got all this. You've got the infrastructure. | ||
| You've got the inflation draw of the bill back better. | ||
| You still have the American Recovery Act. | ||
| You have all this thing. | ||
| It's just packed. | ||
| With spending money that we can't finance. | ||
| Now you're seeing this gap coming up. | ||
| And look, one of the things they're going to do is that this battle right now between do they run out of money in June and do they run out of money in September or October, one of the things they're going to start coming in now is saying, hey, we are going to start running out of money earlier. | ||
| That's why we still need to press Treasury for the actual model itself. | ||
| Correct. They still have not come forward. | ||
| You know, Biden's regime has not come forward and really given us... | ||
| You're getting this from one of these third-party research groups that are looking at the numbers for the end of the first quarter they have to report. | ||
| At no time has Treasury come, Steve, and actually given us a model or their plan. | ||
| They keep talking to Republicans about our plan. | ||
| They have really not put... | ||
| Their plan is the following. | ||
| A $6.8 trillion budget that they can't finance and they want a complete lift on the debt ceiling and permanent. | ||
| They don't want a number. They just want to raise the debt ceiling and the devil take the hindmost. | ||
| Here, and this is what I love about this process, this is an ongoing gunfight between now and November of 2024 and always front and center is going to be cutting the spending and that's why right now this audience more than ever You didn't get as many seats as you wanted, but we got enough seats to get in the fight and really control the fight. | ||
| We have to be the hardliners. | ||
| Not one penny increase to the debt ceiling. | ||
| That's our bid right now. | ||
| Not one penny increase. | ||
| Steve Cortez. Steve, here's the beauty of the current situation. | ||
| It's not just the right thing to do financially and economically for the American people. | ||
| It's also politically expedient right now. | ||
| Paul Bedard, who's an excellent columnist, the Washington Examiner, he put up an article yesterday, I posted it on my social media, with some significant polling. | ||
| Deficit reduction is front and center. | ||
| It is a primary aim, policy aim of the majority of the American people right now, including even in them leading Biden voting districts. | ||
| He broke it down by Biden voting districts. | ||
| They want deficit reduction. | ||
| And I think this is maybe even more significant, as significant as that is, this might even be more important. | ||
| They also say that if a deal is not reached in Dem districts, they are going to blame Joe Biden. | ||
| Joe Biden refuses to negotiate at all, much less negotiate in good faith. | ||
| The American people are aware of this. | ||
| And part of why they're aware of it, again, connecting it back to that agricultural chart, is because they know the price they're paying at the pump, at the grocery store, the rent, the utilities bills. | ||
| All of it, okay? They're aware of that. | ||
| And they're smart enough, even if they're not economically minded, they're smart enough to connect the dots and say, this has a lot to do, it flows directly from the insanity in Washington, D.C. And if this insanity is not solved, I'm not going to blame House Republicans. | ||
| I'm going to blame Joe Biden, even from Dem districts. | ||
| So it's not just the right policy. | ||
| It's not just the right thing to do for the United States. | ||
| It's also politically expedient at this point. | ||
| That doesn't always line up, but it sure does right now. | ||
| Cortez, I want you to hang over a second. | ||
| We'll hold you through the break. By the way, Frank Luntz was on CNN about how to beat Trump. | ||
| And it got all the way down to the most important issue. | ||
| This is Frank Luntz from his focus groups. | ||
| That debt ceiling. The national debt. | ||
| Okay, short commercial break. | ||
| We're going to come back to the Creditors Committee in the War Room in just a moment. | ||
|
unidentified
|
We will fight till they're all gone. | |
| We rejoice when there's no more. | ||
| Let's take down the CCD! | ||
| Here's your host, Stephen K. Bamm. | ||
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| They're actually signaling quite heavily what they're doing. | ||
| Let's walk us through it. | ||
| Look, we're not here to tell you what to do with your money, but what we try to do is immerse you in both macroeconomics and enough microeconomics That then you can reach out to your financial advisors. | ||
| But everybody has got to, at this time in the country's history, you have to immerse yourself in understanding how our economy works, how you fit into it. | ||
| And then you, this is a time for self-reliance because I got to tell you, there's some businesses and some folks are going to get swept away in this and it's not going to be pretty. | ||
| Steve Cortez. Now, the risks are rising dramatically, and you're exactly right. | ||
| We're not making investment decisions for folks, but we want to arm them with the information so that they can make the most informed choice. | ||
| And speaking of choices, BlackRock, which is a firm that we are obviously no fans of in the patriotic populist movement, but nonetheless, a brilliant firm, clearly. | ||
| You don't build that kind of a behemoth without being extremely smart about money management. | ||
| So we have to pay attention to what they say and what they do. | ||
| BlackRock has now gone on the record, and this was the headline, Ditch's 60-40 portfolio in new regime of high inflation. | ||
| So what is a 60-40 portfolio? | ||
| Traditional asset management for individuals most of the time as long as they have years and years until they need the money into retirement is you put 60 % of the money 40 % into bonds. | ||
| And over time, most of the gains come from the stock side, but the bond side provides you a stable income and insurance for the times when that 60 % gets really volatile. | ||
| For the last century, it has basically worked very well over time. | ||
| And that has been sort of the robotic default asset allocation model for individuals to invest. | ||
| BlackRock is now saying That is ditching the 60-40 portfolio because of the new regime of high inflation. | ||
| So that tells us that even if inflation right now is slightly less worse than it was, inflation is still terrible in the estimation of BlackRock, which again, I absolutely hate the firm, think it's a malevolent force in American society, but extremely smart investing firm. | ||
| BlackRock clearly believes that that is not transitory, contrary to all the lies told to us by Jay Powell and by Secretary Yellen, that it's not transitory, that we are in a new era of sustained higher inflation. | ||
| So this is very, very big news, and folks should pay attention. | ||
| I think that, again, you have to make your own informed decisions, but realize what the oligarchs are doing. | ||
| And when they're willing to tell you what they're doing, as in the case of BlackRock, I think it's very significant. | ||
| By the way, getting to that point, to give you information and a data point outside of BlackRock. | ||
| of this sustained era of high inflation, high inputs for individuals and for businesses. | ||
| J.B. Hunt, let's take this from high finance to trucks, to trucking on the road. | ||
| J.B. Hunt just came out with an earnings report that, for the most part, was pretty dismal, particularly the comments that came from their CEO. And J.B. Hunt, I think it's the biggest trucking firm, but it's not. | ||
| It's close to the biggest trucking firm in America. | ||
| If we can pull up chart number one, please, slide one. | ||
| I'd like to show this quote and credit to Bespoke for finding this from the report. | ||
| The CEO of J.B. Hunt said this, quote, deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures. | ||
| Now, what does that mean? The CEO of J.B. Hunt is saying deflationary price pressures meaning demand is soft in the economy. | ||
| So it's hard for J.B. Hunt to continue to charge its customers Higher prices to move its goods. | ||
| So there's deflation on that side. | ||
| They have to charge lower rates to truck the goods around the United States. | ||
| But at the same time, their input costs, particularly energy for a trucking firm, their input costs remain in an inflationary period. | ||
| So this is the worst of all worlds. | ||
| He is very much describing right there, although he doesn't use the term, he is very much describing stagflation. | ||
| This is stagflation on steroids, something the United States had not experienced since the 1970s until Joe Biden. | ||
| So that's the era we're in. | ||
| And if you connect the dots there between what BlackRock is telling you about high finance and then what J.B. Hunt is telling you about literal trucks on the road, that paints the picture for you, again, of how worrisome and how dangerous the economic state of the United States is right now and why it is so imperative to hold a line in Washington, D.C. in these present negotiations on the debt. | ||
| Trucks don't lie. The trucks don't lie. | ||
| I always say price is true. | ||
| Right. And Shakira says hips don't lie, which I'm sure is true. | ||
| But trucks certainly do not lie. | ||
| By the way, you know, let's go to one more data point if we could. | ||
| Let's go back to the world of high finance. | ||
| If we go to chart number four, this is from Bank of America. | ||
| Bad news out of Bank of America laying off 4,000 people. | ||
| Massive layoffs at Bank of America. | ||
| And the Financial Times, which is Steve's favorite paper. | ||
| I don't like the Financial Times, but it's Steve's favorite paper. | ||
| They also point out here, and this is a quote from the FT about B of A, B of A set aside $934 million to insure against credit losses. | ||
| And to put that in context, at this time last year, they only had a $50 million insurance fund. | ||
| That's how non-worried they were a year ago about credit losses. | ||
| They have now ramped it up 20 times. | ||
| They have almost a billion dollars set aside to guard the bank against credit losses. | ||
| This gets, Steve, to what we were talking about yesterday in terms of the credit crunch, which is ongoing and intensifying in the United States, where a firm like B of A says, you know what? | ||
| We need 20 times Let's set aside for credit losses. | ||
| That shows you how dire again this situation is. | ||
| This gets back to your personal life. | ||
| A lot of people say, hey, can you do a better job of connecting some of this? | ||
| Because at the high concept level, we understand it, but how does it relate to? | ||
| When B of A, it's 20 times they've increased it. | ||
| When they say credit losses, that means they're writing off debts. | ||
| People are not being able to pay it back, right? | ||
| So these are going to be, these are losses. | ||
| On the face amount of what they lent versus what they're going to get back. | ||
| This leads them to the next stage, which is credit contraction. | ||
| They're going to say, hey, in this part of the business cycle, maybe we're not going to, we can't do this again. | ||
| We can't write off another 900 million. | ||
| So let's do it this way. | ||
| Let's contract the credit before we'd lend it. | ||
| And let's make sure that we're charging obviously higher rates, but we have much higher, much higher requirements. | ||
| Because in this downturn, we're not going to do it. | ||
| This is why this in the cycle, the next phase to hit people, and I want to get into commercial real estate, but it also is just overall credit availability. | ||
| You're seeing all the banks talk about right now a contraction in credit. | ||
| What that means for you is no more for the college kids or the millennials, there's not going to be 10 envelopes in your mail every week with a credit card that you don't even have to fill anything out, and they're going to give you a $1,500 credit line. | ||
| Those days are over. | ||
| In fact, what you're probably going to see is pressure on the credit cards you've got to say, hey, maybe that $5,000 credit line that you're tapped out on and you're paying 29 % a month, maybe we've got to bring that back. | ||
| Also, mortgages. Mortgages, second mortgages, everything related to credit, unless you're AAA rated plus, which even with a great credit rating as an individual, it's quite difficult to get those types of terms. | ||
| So Steve Cortez, walk me through commercial real estate. | ||
| Sure. What Bank of America is telling us about credit contraction. | ||
| Yeah. And first, just a quick point before I get to commercial real estate. | ||
| On the residential side, since you mentioned the mortgages, you're exactly correct how difficult. | ||
| It was already fairly difficult to get a mortgage. | ||
| Anybody who's done one lately knows that. | ||
| It has gotten even more difficult, massively so, in recent weeks because of what has happened to banks, particularly And that connects back to the chalk talk that we showed yesterday that's still up on my social media where I talk about the growing institutional presence in the single-family home market, which used to be practically zero. | ||
| It is growing dramatically. | ||
| MetLife projections, say, by the year 2030 at present rates, 40 % of new home sales. | ||
| are going to be purchased by institutional investors. | ||
| That's something that should frighten every American because individual home ownership has always been a bedrock principle and an aspiration of America. | ||
| It's getting increasingly out of reach. | ||
| But to get back to the commercial real estate side, because I do believe that the residential real estate market right now, while prices have softened lately, you don't have a lot of leverage over there because the lending standards have been so stringent. | ||
| So this is not like 08 and 09 in that regard. | ||
| However, where are the risks? | ||
| It doesn't mean that we're not in a risky situation. | ||
| In fact, I think we may be in a more risky situation than 08 and 09. | ||
| The risks now are in commercial real estate. | ||
| And if we have a headline from Bloomberg to put up, Bloomberg is catching up. | ||
| Look, Steve, War Room, you are always ahead of the curve. | ||
| You are ahead of Bloomberg, the Financial Times. | ||
| All of them, right? And in this case, Bloomberg, welcome to the party. | ||
| Hedge fund titan, Marshall warns real estate is the next shoe to drop. | ||
| Commercial real estate could face the next crisis of confidence. | ||
| And by the way, I think they're exactly correct, of course. | ||
| You heard it here first, though. | ||
| And what's going on with commercial real estate? | ||
| Well, two things. First of all, commercial real estate was financed heavily, heavily leveraged and financed on the assumption that interest rates would stay extremely low for very long periods of time. | ||
| That's the first assumption. The second assumption is high demand, that people need to go to work somewhere, right? | ||
| It was considered to be relatively safe, relatively boring investment. | ||
| Both of those assumptions have been absolutely blown out of the water, primarily by the Democrats. | ||
| First, Biden's exorbitant borrowing and spending, his attack on American energy caused interest rates to absolutely soar. | ||
| The tyrannical and unscientific lockdowns forced Americans to learn to work remotely. | ||
| And that has persisted into this time. | ||
| In addition to that, city centers have become wastelands of crime and degradation. | ||
| And it's very understandable that many Americans simply do not want to commute. | ||
| Even if they'd rather work in the office, they don't want to go into central San Francisco or the Loop in Chicago and get assaulted. | ||
| So these office towers in those cities, a combination of remote work, Higher interest rates and a very dangerous physical environment. | ||
| All of that, that confluence creates unbelievable risks for commercial real estate. | ||
| And I would implore folks out there, even if you don't think you're connected to commercial real estate, you are. | ||
| Number one, you may indirectly be invested through your 401ks and so forth. | ||
| But number two, it's such a risk to the economy. | ||
| It just further exacerbates this credit crunch that we're talking about, where there is not going to be capital available for you to buy a home, for a small business to try to expand, for anybody to go to regional banks. | ||
| These are the consequences, the real-world Main Street consequences of Biden's economic failures. | ||
| But again, I don't want it to be all bad news. | ||
| We have a seat at the table. | ||
| We can start to reverse these dismal trends. | ||
| We have to hold the line in these coming days. | ||
| It's not going to be easy. You're going to be called every name in the book. | ||
| We'll get to that in the next segment. | ||
| Steve, thank you. By the way, everything you've said about Chicago, sir, when you talk about the commercial real estate collapse and you see what happens over the weekend and people are just going to say, why am I doing this? | ||
| Can't I move it to the suburbs? | ||
| I have people work from home. It's just too... | ||
| It is... | ||
| It's a sad tragedy what's happening in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco. | ||
| These are some of the greatest cities in the world. | ||
| It is a full-on collapse of Los Angeles. | ||
| These major cities are just in total freefall, and it is going to have massive, massive, massive economic consequences. | ||
| Steve, how do we get to your substack? | ||
| How do we get to all your writings and analysis on social media? | ||
| Yes, and I'll put all these charts up, and a lot of what I referenced during this appearance are already on my social media. | ||
| Please follow me at CortezSteve on the Twitter, Cortez with an S. Thank you, Admiral Bannon. | ||
| Thank you, brother. Okay, we got a lot to go through this morning. | ||
| We're going to have Bill Gertz and Rudy are going to join us. | ||
| We got Joe Allen. We're going to break down the Tucker interview last night with Elon Musk. | ||
| Elon Musk catching up a little bit with the war room on some of our hardcore policies on artificial intelligence. | ||
| An amazingly amazing, amazing detailed conversation like that. | ||
| Our own Dr. Peter Navarro is going to be here. | ||
| We've got a lot more to break down. | ||
| Remember, you're head of the creditors committee. | ||
| We're going to go into the whirlwind now. | ||
| You're going to be called every name in the book. | ||
| MAGA deplorable Republicans. | ||
| Short commercial break. Back in the war room. | ||
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| By the way, I want to thank all the comments we got in the chat room about the better lighting. | ||
| You know, we thought it was Natalie's natural beauty. | ||
| Now that I'm here, you got this amazing lighting. | ||
| Even I look okay. | ||
| It's not quite as gonzo sometimes as the war room. | ||
| We're going to be in the road at different studios around the nation for the next couple of weeks. | ||
| So we're going to be every day, every couple of days doing it from a different location. | ||
| I want to thank the Real America's Voice team for making all this happen. | ||
| I want to thank you for the great camera work. | ||
| All the back office in both Denver, Palm Beach, Washington, D.C., all their different studios. | ||
| Really want to thank them. And particularly for the better lighting. | ||
| I've got to talk to my production team in the War Room itself, in the original, about our production. | ||
| Governor DeSantis' lead story in Politico this morning is about this kind of, let's be blunt, it was a disaster yesterday. | ||
| He went to Washington to garner support and coming out of there, I think more people came in and endorsed President Trump. | ||
| Look, Governor DeSantis is doing a great job. | ||
| I think he's doing a fantastic job in Florida. | ||
| He's in this Pitched battle with woke Disney and many woke corporations. | ||
| But right now, I got to tell you, I put up the headline on Getter. | ||
| And go to Getter. We're putting up stuff 24 hours a day, all day long. | ||
| We're also doing live streams. | ||
| We're trying to do, you know, every night, pick up a couple of either things you've missed during the day or other people's podcasts and have our live chat in there and getting huge audiences. | ||
| And not just that, building a real community. | ||
| So download Getter. | ||
| It's totally free. But I've got up on Guetta right now, failure to launch. | ||
| I mean, he has not actually officially come in. | ||
| It's supposed to be after this legislative session. | ||
| I would really have him get away from his donors, get away from all the consultants, get away from everybody who's going to make all the money off him because people are going to make $10, $20, $30 million on his run. | ||
| Really think it through, but I think that 2028 should look pretty... | ||
| Should look soon enough for him because right now we have to come together and back a President Trump. | ||
| We have a lot of tough fights ahead of us. | ||
| A lot of tough fights. The biggest and toughest fight we have right now is in everything related to the finances of the country, the economics, everything that this Biden regime, the radical regime is doing on the southern border, everything. | ||
| But it all ties back to cutting them off for money. | ||
| Over and above artificial intelligence, we're going to get into that. | ||
| In the next hour with Joe Allen. | ||
| I want to bring in Dr. Peter Navarro. | ||
| Dr. Navarro, part of your brilliant substack you've been writing and of course the amazing course you've got going on at, you know, everybody's raving about the macroeconomics. | ||
| They're now going to put your writings up, I think, in the Washington Times as a columnist. | ||
| Tell me about that before I ask you about the Keynesian attitude of Joe Biden, because they're going to come in hard. | ||
| Just because the war room posse is the head of the creditors committee, they don't care. | ||
| They're going to come in hard. | ||
| They're not going to back off one inch in the spending. | ||
| This is going to be a pitched battle. | ||
| Sir, tell me about the column. | ||
| Yeah, I couldn't be more pleased. | ||
| The Washington Times, in my judgment, has One of the best, if not the best, op-ed sections of any newspaper in the world. | ||
| And what we're going to be doing with the Substack, peternavarro.substack.com, is that once a week on Wednesdays, they're going to publish one of my columns from the Substack, peternavarro.substack.com. | ||
| The inaugural one is up today. | ||
| I think it's a really important piece, Steve. | ||
| It's about Kind of whether Putin was a chess master or just got lucky, but we're in a situation now where for 70 years, it was the United States and Saudi Arabia setting oil prices as its tandem as the two largest oil producers. | ||
| OPEC began it. | ||
| You could always crush OPEC either with the US or Saudi. | ||
| And there was a deal, you know, the deal between the Saudis and America is like, Americans will protect the Saudis if they'll keep oil prices low. | ||
| And so during the Trump administration, when we achieve strategic energy dominance, we average about $60 per barrel. | ||
| And so Putin goes into Ukraine. | ||
| Biden talks tough on all these sanctions and he expects everybody around the world, Europe, India, Japan, everyone to kind of embrace the sanctions, crush Russia and, you know, it'd be over in a heartbeat, like hubris. | ||
| You got to go back to Bush and Cheney for more hubris than that. | ||
| What's happened, Steve, is something that maybe Putin figured out beforehand as a chess master. | ||
| But Putin now has surpassed America as the partner with Saudi Arabia because Biden embraced strategic energy subservience. | ||
| America lost its power. | ||
| We're in a situation now, Stephen, for the stagflation we're facing. | ||
| It's really bad. Saudi and Russia are going to set the price, and Russia needs $100 barrel of oil to feed its war machine. | ||
| Saudi needs $80 barrel of oil to feed its social welfare spending. | ||
| They're basically buying off the Saudi population. | ||
| Keep them, you know, with just government spending. | ||
| So we're in a situation now where we go from strategic energy dominance of Donald Trump controlling world oil prices, keeping them down, to a situation now where everybody's saying they're going to be anywhere from $80 to $100 a barrel or more for the next at least two years. | ||
| And what that's going to mean, of course, for us is the sagflation area. | ||
| It takes a hit out of our pocketbooks and that causes slower growth. | ||
| And that's where we stand. | ||
| So you can read the Fuller story in today's Washington Times or it's again from the peternovar.substack.com, but I couldn't be happier that the Washington Times has embraced this. | ||
| Hang on a second. If you don't mind, I know you're jammed for time today, but I want to hold you through the break because there's a bunch of interconnections here that I want to lay out for the posse because they're going to talk about the economy going forward for the nation, the economy for them personally, | ||
| but also strategically what this means because the de-dollarization, which is inextricably linked to this, They're blaming this on sanctions that were done with Russia, and we've got to talk about that. | ||
| Because I'm a big believer that you can use the dollars as a weapon, but you've got to be very, very, very, very selective. | ||
| Short commercial break. | ||
| What, a minute, 90 seconds, two minutes, real quick. | ||
| Peter Navarro's going to join us. | ||
| Joe Allen's going to join us. | ||
| Rudy Giuliani's going to join us. | ||
| Bill Gertz is going to join us. |
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