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March 20, 2005 - Art Bell

02:54:44

Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell - Peter Ward - Extinctions and Climate Change

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01:14:41

peter ward

56:35

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art bell ▲ ● ▼		From the high desert and the great American Southwest, I bid you all good evening, good morning, good afternoon, wherever you may be in the world's time zones.
		Very prolific indeed, every single one of them covered by this program, Coast of Post AMI Mark Bell.
		It is my pleasure, my honor, to be escorting you through the weekend.
		Boy, we touched a few nerves last night, didn't we?
		Well, I'll tell you, this is a place where nerves are going to get touched.
		We don't do the kind of talk radio around here that everybody else does.
		And some of the nerves we touch are pretty sensitive ones indeed.
		But that's what we do, lest anybody out there may have forgotten.
		Let's look at the world news.
		The Senate passed a bill that could prolong Terry Chavo's life while House Republicans, stalled by Democrats, scrambled to bring enough lawmakers back to the Capitol for an emergency vote early Monday.
		Our president rushed back from his Texas ranch for a chance to sign the measure that could trigger a federal court review and a quick, a very quick restoration of the feeding tubes needed to keep brain-damaged Terry Chivo alive.
		Now, this would be one of those stories where you could say it takes the wisdom of Solomon.
		You know, but it doesn't.
		I think that in the absence of a signed declaration from Terry Shiva, and they don't have that.
		All they've got is somebody else saying that she had once said what she wanted.
		Nonsense.
		Not enough.
		Here you err on the side of life.
		You know, I've seen many photographs or, you know, video of Terry Scheibel, and she sure looks alive.
		So I think people should have signed documents indicating what you want done.
		But without that, then you're taking somebody else's word for it that, well, why wants her to say that's what she wanted?
		Nonsense.
		Not enough.
		And the Republican, the conservative establishment woke up a little late to this one.
		You know, they're the staunchly right-to-life people.
		They woke up kind of late, but once they woke up, they really got moving.
		And so now I think this is the right thing to do.
		I think you error on the side of life.
		Unless you're damn sure, then you error on the side of life.
		And it's not like she's on a respirator and all that usual stuff that you hear about when you've got somebody brain damaged.
		She's not.
		She just is on a feeding tube.
		And so, absent a signed declaration by Terry, then you definitely err on the side of life, in my opinion.
		A convicted sex offender entered Jessica Lungford's house through an unlocked door, snatched the nine-year-old girl from her bed, later sexually assaulted her.
		But because the suspect they have in custody was under the influence of drugs at the time, detectives may never know how long she was actually held before killed.
		Iraq and Jordan are engaging in a kind of a tit-for-tat withdrawal of Ambassador Sunday.
		That's not good.
		It's a growing dispute over Shiite Muslim claims that Jordan is falling to, failing rather, to block terrorists from entering Iraq while U.S. forces killed 24 insurgents in a clash south of Baghdad.
		An American convoy was traveling through the Solomon Pak area 20 miles southeast of Baghdad when it was attacked.
		Secretary General Kofi Anan called on World Leader Sunday to approve the most sweeping changes in the UN since it was founded 60 years ago.
		So it can tackle conflicts, terrorism, fight poverty, put human rights at the forefront of its work in the 21st century.
		Been a lot of scandals with the UN, and they want to get that behind them.
		Gasoline prices, huh?
		Gas prices jumped about 13 cents in two weeks.
		Now what's happening here is the pump prices are catching up with the price per barrel cost, which is through the roof.
		And I think it's going to get worse, a lot worse, you know, summer's coming before it gets better.
		And I'm not sure it's going to get much better.
		That's the way the gas prices have been going.
		Two or three steps forward, one back, and everybody goes, and then, boom, away we go again.
		Well, I think we're at the beginning of the end with regard to gasoline, with regard to oil.
		And I think it's going to continually in graduations get worse, and we better get to doing something about it.
		That's what I'd say.
		Well, I guess you can absorb these things or not.
		It was just a few weeks ago that we reported the instance of tornadoes in the Los Angeles area.
		Do you recall?
		Now, tonight, how about this?
		A rogue Funnel cloud raced through South San Francisco Sunday afternoon.
		As it went, it knocked down power lines, damaged quite a few roofs, according to the police.
		The whirling cloud, which meteorologists at the National Weather Service believe was a tornado, was spotted about 3:40 p.m. just west of the city.
		It appeared in the middle of a heavy thunderstorm with blue, black skies and hail.
		Yes, that would be a tornado.
		It raced northeast and eventually dissipated over San Francisco Bay at about 4 p.m., but did a fair amount of damage.
		So within weeks now, we've had reports of tornadoes in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
unidentified		Hmm.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A powerful earthquake jolted Japan on Sunday, causing buildings to sway significantly, prompting a tsunami warning.
		That, of course, didn't happen.
		It was a seven-magnitude quake, hit about 43 miles off the coast of Kyushu Island at 10.53 a.m., centered at an extremely shallow depth beneath the ocean floor.
		Within minutes, the agency warned of the possibility of as much as a 20-inch tsunami.
		But again, it didn't happen.
		There are aftershocks underway, a lot of damage, a lot of native-type structures are gone.
		Sure, you heard about this last week.
		Researchers at Seoul National University said chickens infected with the deadly bird flu virus began recovering about a week after they were fed fermented bacilli extracted from kimchi.
		Now, Korean cuisine is, of course, famous for kimchi, which is kind of a, I would describe it from my point of view as sort of a foul but acquired taste.
		It's definitely an acquired taste.
		Kimchi is very strong.
		But I can assure you, if it cures the bird flu, I will down it in copious quantities if need be.
		And I'm sure you would too.
		Did they create a black hole?
		Have the scientists created a black hole?
		Well, a fireball created by a U.S. particle accelerator has the characteristics, all the characteristics of a black hole.
		According to a physicist, it was generated at the relativistic heavy iron collider, that's the RHIC in New York, which smashes beams of gold nuclei together at near light speed.
		Horicio Natosi says his calculations show the core of the fireball has a striking similarity to a black hole.
		But not to worry, say the scientists.
unidentified		Just a little black hole.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I worry.
		For the second time in just under a year, a circuit breaker has failed on the International Space Station.
		That occurred Wednesday, and it shut when it did.
		One of the gyros that they needed to keep the outpost pointed in the right direction went down.
		Now, they've got two more, so they're okay, but that's their spare.
		Now, they had to replace the same circuit breaker last summer.
		We'll see what happens.
		And by the way, while we're on the subject of the shuttle, Cape Canaveral, what if the next space shuttle winds up in trouble as well?
		What if, like Columbia, it's damaged at liftoff and the astronauts are up in space with a maimed rocket ship?
		Could they be saved?
		When Discovery is launched in a few months, you may want to know this.
		A four-man rescue squad is going to be standing by.
		Interesting.
		It's a plan for the unthinkable.
		It's a place where we don't want to go.
		This is a quote from Air Force Colonel Stephen Lindsay.
		Place we don't want to go.
		We're training for a mission we never want to fly, he says.
		The rescue mission, which might require the president's approval, is fraught with complexities.
		A second launch would have to be done hastily without all the usual tests, probably putting the rescue shuttle, Atlantis, and its crew in harm's way.
		In other words, all the normal safety checks and pre-launch things that you would do, they would not do.
		And so this is NASA coming up with a plan, which I think is a very good idea.
		I mean, you just can't imagine the national trauma that we would all go through.
		Well, look what we're going through in the Shiva case right now.
		But try and imagine the trauma of quite a number of our astronauts in some sort of slow motion in orbit peril.
		My God.
		It would be awful.
		NASA doesn't want to see it, so they're getting ready to save them should the very worst occur.
		Indonesia and Germany signed an agreement, they did it this week, to install tsunami warning system somewhere in the Indian Ocean, though some of its pieces will be in place by October.
		It could turn out to be a race against time.
		You see, the quake that caused last year's devastating tsunami has increased the stress, they say now, on other nearby faults.
		And so they're saying the area could have another major or even two earthquakes and maybe even another big tsunami.
		The earthquake on December 26, 2004, occurred when the dense India tectonic plate slipped under the Burma plate.
		This deformed the seabed, leading to the tsunami that carried hundreds that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
		When an earthquake occurs in such a subduction zone, that is, say where one plate slips under the other, it's often followed by another.
		In addition to the aftershocks, for example, on the Nankai subduction zone to the southeast of Japan, five of the last major quakes were followed within five years by major earthquakes along an adjoining segment of the fault.
		So, in other words, one will cause another.
		After the recent devastating loss of life from the December Indonesian tsunami, geophysicists are looking for other areas where the same kind of disaster might be lurking due to potential underwater earthquake activity.
		For example, now they say there is a real danger the Caribbean, the Caribbean, might be next.
		Scientists say several natural phenomena could trigger giant tsunamis with effects felt in the islands of the Greater and Lesser Antilles and along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. These areas which were relatively sparsely populated when the last waves hit now have big populations.
		Things aren't changing.
		Well, have you seen the picture of Mount Kilimanjaro?
		The snow is almost gone.
		It's almost gone.
		Now, as Whitley suggested last night, this would be 15 years sooner than they thought it would occur.
		This is something you want to keep your eye very closely on, because if the changes that many of us expect occur at the rate that they might be occurring, suggested by this occurrence, that's a lot of occurrence, on Mount Kilimanjaro, 15 years early, then that means other things may begin to occur much earlier as well, and there's pretty good evidence they may be.
		Speaking of miracles, we'll need one to avoid the former, they still occur.
		A baby hippopotamus that survived the tsunami waves on the Kinyan coast has formed a strong bond with, are you ready, a giant male century-old tortoise.
		This all occurred in an animal facility in the port city of Mombasa, according to officials.
		They said the hippopotamus, nicknamed Owen, and weighing about 300 kilograms, that'd be about 650 pounds, was swept down the Sabaki River into the Indian Ocean, then forced back to shore when the tsunami waves struck the Kinyon coast on December 26 before wildlife rangers could rescue him.
		It is incredible.
		A less than one and one-half-year-old hippo has adopted a male tortoise, about a century old, and the tortoise seems to be very happy with being mama.
		Paul Kabumbo, who is in charge of Lafarge Park, told AFP, after it was swept and lost its mother, the hippo was traumatized.
		It had to look for something to be a surrogate mother.
		Fortunately, it landed right on the tortoise, and they established a strong bond.
		They swim, eat, in fact, sleep together.
		They added, the hippo follows the tortoise exactly the way it would follow its mother.
		If somebody approaches the tortoise, the hippo becomes aggressive, as if protecting its biological mother.
		The hippo is a young baby.
		He was left at a very tender age.
		And by nature, hippos are very social animals that like to stay with their mothers for at least four years.
		So there you have a small miracle.
		To the phones we go.
		By the way, we're going to have open lines.
	I guess I had a preview of what we're about to do.
	We're going to have open lines for the balance of this hour, and then we are going to be visited by one Peter Ward.
	It's going to be a very interesting program.
	It's all about, well, in a way, it might be an extension of last night's program if you believe in periodic extinctions.
	In other words, that every now and then the planet in some way hiccups and the life on the planet pretty much is eradicated or close to eradicated and then arises from the ashes once again.
	We'll see.
	East of the Rockies, you're on the air.
	Hello.
unidentified		Hey, Eric, how are you doing?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Quite well, thank you.
unidentified		Yeah, I wanted to make a point on a previous show that I listened to.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh.
unidentified		A guest had an opinion that reincarnation wasn't Christianity.
		Now, I've read the Bible and it's said that each soul is individual, and with the whole concept of Christ being the Savior, if you live more than once, you only have one chance to live.
		The Bible says you're only born once, you have one chance to accept Christ or go to hell.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I know that's the traditional view, but there are many people who believe, sir, and reincarnation, and frankly, there's quite a bit of evidence that it was actually part of Christianity until removed.
unidentified		Yeah, you're right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, so I think that if you're aware of that fact, that it was once there but removed, you can't just dismiss it that easily.
		It's man's hand that did the removal.
		It was not as if God came down and plucked out those words.
		It was man's hand that did that.
		And that's a pretty important thing.
		I mean, do we live again and again and again until we finally get it right, as the old saying goes?
		Or is there only one shot?
		I don't know.
		But I'm, you know, kind of like the thing with Shiva with no signed document.
		Without any signed document, I would really have to imagine it possible we may have life after life after life.
		Wester of the Rockies, you're on the air.
		Yes.
unidentified		Hi, Art.
unidentified		Good evening.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Good evening.
unidentified		This is Brian in Bakersfield.
		Long time, no talk.
		Good to hear you again.
		I just personally wanted to comment that I thank God for the decision this evening.
		I realize it's one in a process that preserves the life of Terry Chavo for the present, and I pray that her life will continue to be extended and that your vast audience might join me in that prayer.
		And I appreciate your giving me the opportunity to say that.
		I'm kind of emotional tonight.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, take care.
unidentified		Well.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You know, it's all over the news.
		It's an emotional thing.
		It's all over the internet.
		So many people are getting emotional about it, I know.
		And I thought very hard about it, and I thought, why, why, isn't it easier just to err on the side of life?
		Again, no signed document.
		She didn't leave word.
		You know, unless you are willing to take the word of her husband.
		And I'm only willing to take, when it comes down to life, a question of life and death, then I'm only willing to take the word of the person who's in that situation, whether it was a signed document that was prepared before they're a very difficult situation or not.
		I want that document.
		If I don't have that document, then you can't know for sure without question, beyond any shadow of a doubt, kind of like in a courtroom, right?
		There is some shadow of a doubt here.
		And when there's shadow of a doubt, then you error on the side of life.
		Because you never know.
		Somebody could wake up.
		They do it all the time from comas.
		No, the doctors will say it's a vegetative state.
		Well, every now and then, the doctors are wrong.
		It happens.
		Sure, you have only six months to live.
		A lot of people 18 and 20 years later are around to, you know, tell everybody that's what the doctors told them.
		Somehow they're still around.
		So it's not like they know everything.
		So if it's a question, you're on the side of life.
		That's simple.
		From the high desert in the middle of the night, which is where we do business, this is Coast to Coast AM.
		I'm Art Bell.
unidentified		Well, I think it's time to get ready To realize just what I have found I have been on the head of what I am It's all clear to me now My heart is on fire My soul's like a wheel that's
		turning My love is that I am My heart is on fire Where are those happy days?
		They seem so hard to find.
		I tried to reach for you, but you have closed to find.
		Whatever happened to our love, I wish I understood just the face of us.
		It's just the pace of the road.
		So when you're near me, darling, can't you hear me?
		S-O-S When love you gave me, nothing else can save me.
		S-O-S When you're gone, how can I even try to go on?
		S-O-S To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
		The first time client is area code 775-727-1222.
		To talk with Art Bell from east of the Rockies, call toll-free at 800-825-5033.
		From west of the Rockies, call 800-618-8255.
		International callers may reach ART by calling your in-country sprint access number, pressing option 5, and dialing toll-free, 800-893-0903.
		From coast to coast and worldwide on the internet, this is Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		From the high desert, I wish you all a very good morning, and a good morning it is indeed.
		We're open lines for the next session.
		I hope you caught those numbers because they are a little different on weekends.
		Those are the ones.
unidentified		The End Hey, I just realized something.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't have that kind of problem, assuming that I say the right thing right now.
		I have several million witnesses out there, right?
		At least several million witnesses.
		So how about this?
		I do not wish to be held alive in a vegetative state.
		So if the doctors say, I am in a vegetative state, I have millions of witnesses out there, all of you, who heard me say, I don't wish to be kept alive.
		Tara Shaiva, on the other hand, had no such ability to have many hear what she had to say.
		So in her case, you've got to opt for life.
		There was no document.
		In my case, I just told you.
		You're all my witnesses.
		First time caller line?
		No, no, no.
		Let's go up here.
		You're on the Air Coast to Costa Am with Arpel.
unidentified		Hello.
unidentified		Art Bell.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, okay.
unidentified		This is Charlie in Juarez.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Juarez.
unidentified		Mexico.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You're in Juarez, Mexico.
		Oh, how cool is that?
		Welcome to the Proso.
		Yeah.
unidentified		One thing I've got to agree with you, the young lady, Ms. Shidely, there, seeing the pictures I've seen her on the news, of her on the news, given that we don't have specific instructions, I think that withdrawing feeding two would just be murder with her.
unidentified		She seems aware.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, I don't know.
		Yes, she seems aware.
		From what you see in the video, she seems aware.
		But I just agree.
		I mean, there's no signed document.
		And minus that, then it doesn't seem like a hard decision.
		And the only part that gets me is how long it took the Republicans to glom onto it and realize they'd better get their butts moving on this or there's going to be trouble.
		Anyway, go ahead.
unidentified		Yeah, I really don't usually agree with the radical right that much, but I think they got on to this.
		What I wanted to talk to you about was that 40 or 50 Years ago, I used to live up in the high mountains of Colorado, about 8,000 feet up there.
		And then, as now, I stayed up all night.
		And I used to listen to a radio program out of KFI in Los Angeles called The Night Owl.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, sure.
unidentified		Because that was about the best station I could get at night.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Man, I've been an AM DXer all my life.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		KOA in Denver, I'm sure you DXed them plenty of times.
unidentified		Well, they were pretty near me, actually.
unidentified		But so here I am in Moores, and about my best shot at getting you seems to be these days KFI.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Is it really?
unidentified		Yeah.
		We have a real problem down here on the border.
		It just depends if you.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How far south of the border are you?
unidentified		Oh, 10 miles.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		10 miles.
		Well, then, that's definitely.
		I mean, you're right.
		KFI is probably near Class A coverage.
unidentified		Yeah, but if I try to get a nearer station, when I'm down here like this, it depends upon how many Mexican stations you want to get in the background.
		Yeah.
		we're hearing you fine down here on KFI.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, that's good to know.
		Thank you very much.
		I'm glad I'm sure KFI is happy to know about that as well.
		Big signal, KFI, 50,000 watts of AM.
		First on caller line.
		Now you're on the air.
		Hello.
unidentified		Hi, how are you this evening?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Quite well, sir.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And yourself?
unidentified		Not too bad.
unidentified		Calling you from the well-frozen state of Michigan this evening.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That well-frozen, huh?
unidentified		Yes, sir.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, better that than you're calling me to tell me the tundra in Michigan is melting.
unidentified		Not this year, if not.
		A quick comment on the Terry Schibo case, if I may.
		You may.
		It's a tragedy that people with health problems have to have decisions made for them that they may or may not have voiced.
		Her case has been adjudicated twice.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But it's not a tragedy, sir.
		It just shouldn't be.
		I mean, nobody should give the final word on anybody else's life.
		Uh-uh.
		I don't get that at all.
		Either you've got a signed document or you don't.
		And if you don't, then you err on the side of life.
		Sorry.
		It's easy.
unidentified		I agree.
unidentified		However, it has been through their court system twice.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, probably ten times.
unidentified		I don't care.
unidentified		But my main concern, and I am a Republican, is the Republican intrusion on states' rights.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, you mean in observing what the Florida courts have done?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well.
unidentified		Yes, sir.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Otherwise, it would mean her death.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And the Republicans couldn't let that happen.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Very well.
unidentified		I understand.
		But I also, my concern is the way that they have entered into the sovereign laws of the state and basically trampled on them.
		And that's pretty much what my main concern is.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, I would say tough doodly.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		The courts in Florida should have done a better job.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Okay.
unidentified		Your own opinion.
unidentified		No, you're right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Thank you, sir.
		Take care.
		That's right.
		Everybody to their own opinion.
		That's what I said.
		This program, we deal in rough and tumble stuff on this program.
		And I'm not going to shy away from delving into all sorts of opinions, whether they be the callers, my guests, my own, whatever.
		I'm not going to be afraid to say stuff.
		And if I ever get to the point, you know, because of intimidation or any other reason why I'm afraid to say something, I'm not going to be on here.
		I wouldn't be on here.
		Not a chance in hell.
		East of the Rockies, you're on the air.
		Hello?
unidentified		Hello?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, sir.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Hi, is this art?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It is art, and you are on the air.
unidentified		Thank you, sir.
		Pleasure to be speaking with you.
		I'm a first-time caller, recently listening as well.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, sir.
unidentified		And I wanted to comment on the Shiloh case.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, sir.
unidentified		I agree with your last caller.
unidentified		I believe that the government, as well as members of Congress, have no say in our right to live.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, let's back up just a little bit.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		With respect to the decisions made by multiple courts in Florida, do you agree with those decisions?
unidentified		As far as taking the feeding tube away.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You agree with that?
unidentified		Yes, I don't believe it's punishment.
unidentified		I believe that it's already gone to the courts down there in Florida, and I believe that they web.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I know, but that isn't what I was asking.
		I was asking if you agreed with the court's decision that the feeding tube should come out.
		Why do you feel that?
unidentified		Well, because, I mean, it is their decision.
unidentified		It is up to the members of the family, which there is a dispute there, as we all know, is reason the courts have decided to take it over.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but why not just make it simple and say either we have a signed document from Terry for what to do in a case like this, or if we don't have a signed document, then why should you take anybody else's word for it?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Ever.
unidentified		Exactly.
unidentified		The problem with that is no one plans for life unless you have a will and you are financially well off.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's not true.
		No, no, no, no.
		Not true, sir.
		I'm talking about what to do.
		Let's say that you get into an automobile wreck tomorrow and you're a vegetable, okay?
unidentified		I would not want to.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You could have very easily left a little document saying, like I did a few minutes ago, if I become a vegetable, signara.
		And then there will be no fight in the courts.
		So you could leave that document.
		You don't have to be a money person to do that.
unidentified		Right, that is true.
		But as far as, you know, I don't think people plan ahead that far.
		But that's not the point.
		My point basically was that we need to stand up to our government because this is, it is turning to all of our rights that are being taken, as you know, about the gun control.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, well, look, and then here's one more thing, sir.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Whether you like it or not, Congress does have a right to pass a law, a specific law, aimed at even just one person.
unidentified		One person.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Like it is in this case.
		I mean, they do have that right.
		Right.
		So, you know, everything's proceeding legally, I think, don't you?
unidentified		Yeah, exactly.
		I think it's gone too far, really.
		thing it should be, you know, my sympathy is with the family members going through this.
		Because I know that they...
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Whether you're talking about mom and dad or you're talking about the ex-husband.
unidentified		The husband is husband.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, which family member are you talking about?
unidentified		The closest.
unidentified		Her parents, but as well as her husband.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, her parents want to keep her live, sir.
unidentified		Exactly.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I missed that.
		Oh, you missed that.
		Oh, yes.
		Well, then get it Now, her parents want her kept alive.
		I guess your argument would have been: well, the husband is closer legally.
		West of the Rockies, you're on the air.
unidentified		Hi.
unidentified		Are you talking to me, Paul?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Paul, yes, I am.
unidentified		Okay.
unidentified		Yeah, I was listening to the news earlier this evening, and they played a clip of Mike Shivo, I think his name is.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
unidentified		And he said, I don't think my wife would want to live this way.
		He didn't say she told me she didn't want to live this way.
		He said, I don't think.
		And because of that, he's disqualified himself from making that judgment for her.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		In my opinion, I'm not sure he ought to be qualified in either case.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, that means we have to take his word for it, right?
unidentified		Right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And he might be telling the absolute, honest God's truth, but then again, he might not.
		And so I want to sign documents, see?
		This is life we're talking about.
		Right.
unidentified		So the thing is, if he came forward and had said, she told me that she didn't want to live under these circumstances, you'd have a lot easier time with that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I wouldn't.
unidentified		But under the circumstances where he's just saying, I don't think she would want to live like this, then I don't really believe that he necessarily has her best interest at heart.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, that may or may not be.
unidentified		I don't know.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I think we should simplify the whole matter.
		And people leave statements.
		They leave.
		You do it.
		You ought to do it now.
		I mean, what's to stop you?
		You just type out a little document, get it witnessed, whatever.
		Go to a lawyer, I suppose.
		Do what you have to do so you know it's legal.
		And then there'll be no such dispute should you get into that condition.
		Right?
		Wild card line, you're on.
		First names on the air.
		So I excised your last name.
		If you would, start again, Jeff.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
		I'm out at Joplin, Missouri.
		And I'm going to take us off a different way, Yard.
		Have you heard anything about Robert Cook?
		Has he got any progress on that thrust motor?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No news to report.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Well, I was thinking about building a toy and sending it your way.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Building a, not just any toy, but an over-unity toy, right?
		One, yeah.
		I hope it comes wobbling into my door.
unidentified		It's a very simple thing to build.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Most people could do it after you see it, and you're going to be kind of surprised.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, well, I'm easy.
		Send it my way.
		I'll get to the rooftops, use the mic, shout to the world.
		Hallelujah, world.
		It's here.
		Free energy.
		So get me that toy.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		I know we could do the electricity part on it, that's for sure.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, well, I'll look for it to arrive.
		Talk is cheap.
		Toys through the door, not.
		That's been my challenge to the Over Unity people forever, and it remains so.
		Get me that toy.
		Demonstrate Over Unity to me, and I'll get behind you, and I'll shout from the rooftops.
		East of the Rockies, you are on the air.
unidentified		Hello.
unidentified		Hello, how are you?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Pretty well, sir.
unidentified		Good.
unidentified		I'm from Boston, and my name is Joe.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, Joe, extinguish your radio totally.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Got it all.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And proceed.
unidentified		Let me get the other one out.
unidentified		I could school on it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, geez.
unidentified		That's because one is the power.
unidentified		It's going to die now.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Off, off, off.
unidentified		Here we go.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, go ahead.
unidentified		All right.
		Okay.
		Go.
		Hello.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, go.
unidentified		Hello.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		There's no screener, buddy.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You're on the air.
unidentified		On the air.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Yes, okay.
unidentified		Arc, how are you?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Quite well.
unidentified		Thank you.
		Good.
		First time I've spoken to you.
		Just very quickly, I love your program.
		Thank you.
		And what I like most is not just your knowledge, but your insatiable curiosity, which panned his night owls like me.
		Having said that, on the case with Terry, I was rather perplexed by it, but I guess I would allow the feeding tube to remain.
		The second thing, for sure, I'm 60 and I got one of those farms for the living will.
jeff in joplin ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
unidentified		You're going to see a lot of people running out doing their living will.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, then this will have done a very good thing.
unidentified		Well, there's some members of my family that I don't want to touch me.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I understand that.
unidentified		And the third aspect, of course, is that I don't think, you know, I'm not necessarily opposed to Congress intervening as they have, but I don't believe under another political climate, without the religious right influencing the political conservatives, it probably wouldn't have been brought up.
unidentified		That's the only sort of critique.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But I mean, it's right that they get behind it.
		They preach it.
		It's time they practiced it.
unidentified		Yeah, and they've got to enlarge on this thing and really take a hard look.
		You know, I mean, this is just one case.
		And, you know, there are subtle distinctions in different cases.
		Some of the, beyond the bioethicists and a few judges, maybe we all have to take a very hard look and see what we can formulate and how we can help each other when we're about to die as well as live.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's right.
		All right, sir.
		Thank you very much.
		And with regard to my earlier declaration, those who insist that I'm already vegetative don't count.
		Welcome to the Rockies.
		You're on the air.
		Hello.
unidentified		Hi.
		Hi.
		I wanted to talk about the Terry Shiva case.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Let's rock.
unidentified		Okay.
		You know what I'm concerned about is the fact that people like Terry, even if they get to sign that living will that says I don't want to be kept alive, they have no control over how they're killed.
		And I was thinking, even if she had signed something and they were just going to take away her feeding tube and not give her any water, that is a very terrible way to die.
		No, it's not.
		I went on a fast for 18 days.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It may be a terrible way for a conscious person to die.
unidentified		I had water to drink, but no food.
		And the water aspect, whenever I failed to drink water, there was great suffering that started to happen.
		Lots of physical pain, headache.
		And it's a terrible, terrible way.
		And I've heard doctors say if people have the right to say, I want to be allowed to die, they should also have the right to say how I want to die.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, I agree with you.
unidentified		Yeah, we should have the right to be euthanized in a humanistic way the way we do with small animals.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Right, big syringe full of morphine.
		Good night.
		Whatever.
		You know, sure, I think I agree with that.
		We ought to have the right to dictate how it goes.
		There's way too much suffering that goes on.
		I think I disagree with the young lady in terms of, you know, doctors have said that starvation like that is not as bad as it sounds.
		Perhaps for a fully conscious person, it would be horrible.
		But for somebody already essentially out, they do say she's in a vegetative state.
		You know, that's arguable, I guess, but I don't think it's that horrible.
		But personally, I agree with the young lady.
		I mean, why not dictate the way you're going to go?
		If you're going to dictate that you don't want to stay in that condition, then one quick shot, whatever.
		Maybe that's a better way.
		This way, I don't know.
		It's easier for everybody, right?
		If they simply remove the feeding tube, then nobody has to take a positive action.
		Nobody has to fill a syringe with something and actually step forward and do it.
		So maybe it makes it easier.
		Instead of giving something, you simply take something a little extra away, and that ends life.
		Some world.
		Front colour line, you're on the air.
unidentified		Hi.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hello?
		Going once.
		Going twice.
		Gone.
		Wildcard line, you're on the air.
		Hi.
unidentified		Hi, Art.
unidentified		Let's go to Mars.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I'm all for that.
unidentified		Yeah, National Public Radio reported on the Spirit Rover resurrection, and they quoted a quote from Steve Squires, the Cornell graduate who's supposed to be an explorer.
		This is the exact quote.
		Frankly, it doesn't matter to me.
		Our vehicle's been to the car wash, and it's clean now.
		Whatever, what it was that did it is inconsequential compared to the fact that we now have a clean rover.
		How about that?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How about that?
unidentified		Yeah, that was on national public radio.
		Oh, I ran into Bob Dean at the Laughlin UFO Congress a couple weeks ago.
		He'd love to debate Richard Hoagland on past and present life on Mars.
		Wouldn't that be fun making Richard Hoagland a conservative?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't know.
		Sounds like it might be a fun debate, though, that's for sure.
		And I'm all for going to Mars.
		In fact, I consider it suspicious.
		How's that for a word?
		Actually, I consider it suspicious that we have not been back to the moon.
		What do you think?
		Isn't it a little suspicious?
		Look at how long it's been.
		We haven't been back to the moon with a man.
		We haven't gone to Mars.
		We haven't done a damn thing since we got to Mars.
unidentified		It's almost suspicious.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, what did we find that we don't want to go back and have to deal with?
		How's that for a possible conspiracy theory?
		That we saw something or another up there that scared the lunar ambition right out of us.
		This is Coast to Coast, AM.
		I'm Art Bell.
unidentified		Streetworks are made from rich people Ah!
		I never dreamed that I never dreamed that I be it sight, sound, smell, touch, there's something inside that we need so much.
		The sight of a touch, or the scent of a sand, or the strength of an oak leaves deep in the ground.
		The wonder of flowers to be covered and then to burst up through tarmac to the sun again.
		Or to fly to the sun without burning a wing, to lie in the meadow and hear the grass sing, to have all these things in our memories all, and we use them to help us to fall.
		Yeah!
		Ride, ride my sexy soul Take this
		place, all this trip Just for me Ride, ride my sexy soul Ride, ride my wish But my sin is for free Wanna take a ride?
		To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
		The first-time caller line is area code 775-727-1222.
		To talk with Art Bell from east of the Rockies, call toll-free 800-825-5033.
		From west to the Rockies, call 800-618-8255.
		International callers may reach ART by calling your in-country sprint access number, pressing option 5, and dialing toll-free 800-893-0903.
		From coast to coast and worldwide on the internet, this is Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It is coming up in a moment, Peter Ward.
		He is a professor of biology, a professor of Earth and Space Sciences, and adjunct professor of astronomy at the University of Washington in Seattle.
		Pretty heavy stuff, folks.
		He's a principal investigator of the University of Washington Node of the NASA Astrobiology Institute that involves the leadership of over 25 scientists, 25, studying the possibility of finding life beyond our Earth.
		He has published more than 100 scientific papers dealing with paleontological, zoological, and astronomical topics.
		In addition, He has published 12 books and has appeared in numerous television documentaries.
		He's senior counselor of the Paleontological Society, was awarded an affiliate professorship at the California Institute of Technology.
		Well, very well qualified to comment on the possibility of finding life elsewhere.
unidentified		Do you think there is life elsewhere?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Or perhaps the question ought to be, will it find us?
unidentified		we will ask in a moment Peter, welcome to the show.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hey, Art, how are you?
		I'm great.
		Where are you located, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I'm in Seattle, Washington right now.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Seattle.
		Then this is great timing for this newsflash.
		My God, you're going to want to hear this.
		SETI just announced they have made contact with an alien race.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Which aliens are those?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, so much for that.
		No, folks, it's a ruse.
		I wanted to see how Peter Ward would react.
		You did very well, Peter.
		He just chuckled.
		I don't know which ones would it be.
		Yeah, you'll be right.
		So that kind of, I don't know, that kind of tells me something.
		I'm trying to figure out what.
		I just thought I'd use you as a test case and see what you said.
		Well, you laughed.
		You laughed, Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I guess I'd be delighted.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, would you really?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I would, actually.
		Like everybody else, it'd be great.
		But about a week later, would anything be different?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, I don't know.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I guess that would have to do with the nature of the contact.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I guess so.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You really don't think it's going to happen, though.
		I mean, that laugh, that laugh told me you just flat didn't believe it.
		Period.
		So you don't expect it, do you?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't.
		And the dirty little secret is that SETI has already searched a huge area of our galaxy and found nothing.
		And yet, SETI, you realize SETI has to sound very hopeful and optimistic or they can't get donors because without donors, they have a huge overhead.
		And so they have to play the double game of sounding as optimistic as hell, but on the other hand, not really telling anybody that they're searching like crazy and can't find anything.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, there was the wow signal.
		Nobody's ever explained that.
		I mean, come on, Peter.
		We only transmitted, I think, now, what, once or twice from Earth?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, look at the movie Contact.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		We've been transmitting.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, yeah, I know.
		I love movie and everything.
		But that's scattered stuff.
		With actual intent to contact somebody, we only, I think, did that one time, right?
		Using Arecibo, really a big signal intended for contact.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, let's hope that they try more.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I mean, I'm all in favor of trying it because it's relatively cheap compared to everything else we spend on this planet.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But all that means you'll be sending in a donation.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I doubt it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Probably not, huh?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Probably not.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, everybody should know Peter has written a book called Rare Earth, Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And in fact, so uncommon that Peter doesn't think there, probably doesn't think there is other intelligent life, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, I think we're really taken to task for that, and that's not what we said.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I think I personally believe the universe is so large, there'll be lots of other intelligent life, but it's going to be so rare and so scattered that the distances will probably make any alien finding any other alien highly unlikely.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But if there is other intelligent life, it, like us, is going to be trying to contact others at some point in its development, wouldn't you think?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I would think so, unless, of course, it's an underwater intelligence.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And the problem with being underwater is there's no electronics, and therefore you would have no way of sending radio beams or picking them up and have, therefore, no appreciation of anything else out there.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Let's talk a little bit about extinction.
		What is the so-called great dying?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, really, it ties right back into this whole idea of life in space.
		I began my work and my career looking at mass extinctions, and I started my work looking at what killed the dinosaurs, which was certainly an asteroid, and then went back to an even bigger extinction.
		250 million years ago, about 90% of all species die out.
		So if the dinosaurs died in fire and brimstone from an asteroid, surely a bigger extinction was just a bigger asteroid.
		And many of us in this business went out expecting that, and to our surprise, could find no evidence of asteroid collision at all in the rocks of that age.
		So other explanations had to be sought for.
		And to give us the sort of the life in space beneath, the Great Dying was as close as our planet has come to the extinction of all life.
		I mean, we really had a terrible, terrible depression of the diversity on planet Earth.
		And once you start asking, again, a quarter billion years ago, 250 million years ago, 90% of all species on the planet Earth die off.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Why?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, isn't that the great question?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It turns out the short answer appears to have been global warming.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Global warming.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Climate change.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Come on, you've written about this.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I do know something about it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You do.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And the last time I was on your show was right before the wonderful movie, the day after tomorrow, came out, because I've gotten the script, and we had a wonderful three hours went over that little deal.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, it really caused quite a stir, you know.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Not enough of one, though.
		That's the thing.
		The movie sort of came and went, and I was hoping...
		They do.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And there have been some amazing, amazing.
		I mean, look at Kilimanjaro, buddy, since we last talked.
		It's pretty near got a bare butt up there.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it does.
		It does.
		And I'm looking at the Cascade Mountains right now.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		15 years ahead of when they said it should happen.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, we have no skiing in Washington State.
		They shut it down months and months ago.
		There was no snow this year.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, you know why?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I'd call it global warming myself.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, it's because the jet stream has brought all of it right down and deposited it around me.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'm about 20 miles from Death Valley.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, yeah, you've got all the wildflowers, right?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hey, baby.
		It's turning green.
		It's like a golf course out there on the desert.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, you just get more tourists then.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, if this keeps up, we're going to plant redwoods and we're going to start a different industry here.
		So, yeah, that's why you're in a drought in that part of the world right now, and we're drowning.
		In fact, we've got more rain coming Tuesday and Wednesday.
		This is just ridiculous.
		We're over our yearly total.
		We were over our yearly totals before the year had hardly begun.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, is it a good thing or a bad thing for you, Art?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		If you could do it over again, would you have all this rain again or give it up?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'm not sure.
		That's a really interesting question.
		It really is.
		I'm not sure yet of the answer.
		I like the desert as a desert, and I'm not sure that I'll be all that comfortable to see it change if that is in fact what's underway.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, if you like a lot more people, if you have more rain, you're certainly going to get them.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I can imagine you don't really want that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		This area is growing incredibly.
		The land values are just shooting up around here.
		It's crazy what's going on in southern Nevada right now, and particularly in Perump.
		It's amazing.
		And anyway, you say this last mass extinction was due to global warming.
		Well, there certainly were no factories that we were aware of, nor automobiles, or anything else from man contributing to what occurred a quarter billion years ago.
		Right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but there was something that was making carbon dioxide just in almost the same fashion that we do.
		It wasn't internal combustion engines.
		It was the biggest volcanic events of the history of the planet.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Remember to stay close to that phone for me.
		The biggest volcanic event.
		So which one?
		Do you know offhand?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, about one quarter of Siberia is covered with lava, and it came out of a number of very large fissures a quarter billion years ago.
		And the extrusion of all that lava created an enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
		The planet warmed probably 10 degrees centigrade, or about 15, 16 degrees Fahrenheit.
		And with all that warming, there was at the same time a drop in oxygen.
		So we got hotter and we had less oxygen of the two combined to create.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Out of curiosity, do scientists know, do you know how much oxygen left the atmosphere?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, it went from 21% today to about 11%.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How serious would it be?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The atmosphere was gone.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Got it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How serious would that be for human beings?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It would put us right now at 17,000 feet.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Where at a high level would be now 17,000 feet.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		17,000 feet.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, that would take care of some percentage of the population right away.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I've been at 14,000.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It's really hard.
unidentified		Yes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It would necessitate, I suppose, artificial atmospheres for comfort, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Certainly you could not do any sort of a cerebral work.
		I've tried to do an interview with 14,000.
		It just didn't work.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Didn't work.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And secondly, any sort of physical activity is almost impossible.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So that would be indeed quite catastrophic.
		I was having a little talk with Whitley Strieber last night, and he had a concern since we wrote Global Superstorm that became day after tomorrow.
		He's got a new concern involving methane.
		And I wonder if you share that concern.
		His concern is that it's trapped in the ground beneath the oceans, and it's increasing, and that there's some possibility that this methane would suddenly let go.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, there's a huge concern about this.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, there is.
		Oh, there is.
		So this is grounded well scientifically.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, very much so.
		There's an enormous quantity of methane frozen in sediment.
		And as we warm the world, say, global warming creates Arctic conditions, as you know, to get warmer, all it has to do is warm up a slight amount, and the methane is trapped in sediment in the Arctic, goes into the atmosphere.
		Well, methane is an even better greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Really?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		So in 20 years, methane converts to CO2.
		It goes from CH4 to CO2.
		It takes up oxygen when it does this and makes the world warmer yet.
		So methane's on everybody's, all the climate scientists are very concerned about methane.
		And we also have evidence that was there in this great dying of a quarter billion years ago.
		We have a very strong methane signature that we're seeing in sediments.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Peter, what could trigger a methane release?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How can we imagine that might occur?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The scariest scenario comes from a guy, Northwestern, a chemical engineer named Gregory Riskin.
		And he's written two papers.
		The scientific publications, the normal Main Street scientific publications, wouldn't publish them, although I thought they were pretty good science.
		I saw them at pre-publications, said this ought to be published.
		He has suggested that there's enough methane in the Black Sea that could come out of solution as a big bubble.
		And his point is if it comes out as a bubble and then it's struck by lightning, methane, of course, is natural gas, it explodes in the atmosphere.
		And so he had a sort of tongue-in-cheek, but maybe not, saying that he could envision China disappearing in an instant.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That'd be like a fuel air bomb.
unidentified		Yes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Times many.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, my God.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it's exciting.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Exciting.
		There are so many perils, potential perils for us.
		With regard to this methane business, is it the kind of thing that is triggered suddenly?
		And if so, do you have any idea the dynamics behind such a trigger?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, we have a pretty good model, actually, it happened.
		It was one of the most horrific accidents to befall mankind about 20 years ago.
		There was a small lake in Cameroon in Africa called Lake Nios.
		And Lake Nyos is volcanic, and it has sediment at the bottom.
		And the sediment at the bottom trapped an enormous volume of carbon dioxide.
		It was held down at the bottom of the lake.
		And there was a temperature inversion of some sort that caused the Bottom of the lake to come to the surface.
		So simply a turning over the water column.
		And in one night, the CO2 came out as a big bubble.
		Well, it flowed in a semi-liquid form along the sides of the shoreline, and within two hours, 2,500 people and 10,000 cattle were dead.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I remember.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It was a terrible deal.
		And methane has the same characteristics and the same sort of oceanography.
		So the fear is that the Black Sea, if it were to start burping methane bubbles, these could ignite.
		Unlike CO2, which is not flammable, methane is.
		And so the physics would have CO2 coming out as well as methane coming out.
		And indeed, there's a scientific team at Harvard that suggests that the Great Dying was caused by bubbles of CO2 coming out and causing the global warming.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		So there's some reason to believe this could happen again.
		And even if it was not ignited by lightning, really, truly a worst case scenario, still a gigantic release worldwide could certainly cause a chemical change in our atmosphere that might not be real good for us?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, certainly just even the global warming aspects of it would be so catastrophic.
		You know, Art, we hang by our fingernails in crop production.
		On this planet, we absolutely depend on every single farm region producing enormous bumper crops every year.
		That's what keeps us going.
		If we have a methane explosion or a methane change of climate, what you see very quickly now is changing crop yield.
		I mean, we're seeing it right now.
		Washington State is looking at this drought, and we're going to have a tremendous reduction.
		You guys, with all that rain, doesn't do any good in the desert.
		I mean, nobody's growing crops down in southern Arizona and Nevada.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Not yet.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Not yet.
		Well, they may, but they're ready online.
		But our state, we're in deep trouble here.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Peter, I look around the world and I read all these stories and read them to my listeners.
		And to me, it seems as though the process is accelerating.
		You know, this Kilimanjaro thing, just the latest of a long, long string of stories.
		I mean, go talk to the Eskimos.
		Boy, is that scary stuff.
		What's going on up in Alaska?
		With the rate of acceleration of all of this, do you want to make any scientific guesses, Peter, about where we're headed and how soon we might get there?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I just parrot what I've heard from our best climate modeler at the University of Washington.
		He's a guy named David Battisti, and he does the mathematical modeling of what happens to atmospheres as you warm them.
		And he's an expert at world climate models.
		So he's a guy who's really looking forward, and he uses the computer models to predict in the future using past data in the past.
		And his bottom line is that we will have 1,000 parts per million carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 100 to 150 years.
		We have 360 right now going to 380.
		But the point is that the last time we had 1,000 ppm was the Eocene epoch.
		This was right after the age of dinosaurs.
		The entire world was a jungle.
		This was a world that was absolutely jungle from pole to pole.
		We had crocodiles and palm trees in Washington State at that time.
		We have plenty of fossils of them.
		I take my kids up and they go, wow, Hawaii and Washington.
		Well, Seattle hasn't had a good palm tree in 60 million years, but we'll have them in 100 years, if this guy is correct.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		In 100 years.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		In 100 years, we're looking at a world warm enough that Washington State has palm trees and crocodiles.
		And I don't mind palm trees and crocodiles, but here's what I really mind.
		I don't want malaria, dengue fever, Ebola, and all the other goodies that the tropics have.
		That's the whirlwind that we reap.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
		And in 100 years, let's move north a little bit into Canada and the Yukon and Alaska.
		What's that going to look like in 100 years?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, you certainly have no glaciers.
		You're going to find a very rapid change in vegetation.
		I mean, those places have really scrubbed spruce, and they have Fitka spruce.
		They've got all these trees that are really adapted to cold and to dry, because so many of the Yukon, those areas are very dry, of course.
		They get snow, but it's not a lot of rainfall.
		Rainfall patterns change.
		It gets warmer and wetter.
		And probably you start getting cedar and Douglas fir up there.
		So you're going to have a change of our vegetation, sort of in the Washington State region, way up north.
		But the bad news is that high CO2 has been found to work really badly with our crops.
		Corn and wheat reduce their yields in higher CO2.
		That's bad news.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How much of a factor do you think that man's presence is in worsening the situation that's underway anyway?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's a question I get all the time.
		I mean, people say, well, you know, you have this extinction of 250 million years ago, and you say that volcanic activity caused it.
		Well, there's no humans back 250 million years ago, so still what?
		But the point is that the volcanoes are still doing their thing today, and they have been forever.
		So we have all this natural CO2 coming from the volcanoes.
		So it's not as if we're putting out the majority of CO2.
		It's just our SUVs and our industries putting enough extra out there.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So are we a factor?
		Yes.
		Or no?
		Oh, yes, yes.
		Totally.
		All right.
		Hold it right there.
		We're at the bottom of the hour.
		My guest is Peter Ward.
		He's a scientist.
		Make no mistake about that.
		And I'll refresh your knowledge of his knowledge as we move through the show.
		But he's a very serious scientist talking about the possibility of, well, I was going to say alien life.
		But maybe what we're talking about right now is the possibility of our lives.
		Perhaps the suspect.
unidentified		I'm Mark Bell.
		To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
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art bell ▲ ● ▼		Nothing but a heartache is right, man.
		If it's not one thing, it's another.
		Now it's methane.
		And the Earth has one giant gaseous moment, and that's it for us.
		Huh, let me count the ways.
		We'll be right back.
unidentified		We'll be right back.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		For all the humor I'm probably trying to inject into this, Peter Ward is a very serious scientist.
		What we're talking about is a very serious possibility for the world.
		You know, Peter, I've seen, like I'm sure you have, a lot of these futuristic science fiction movies where, well, actually, they start out with people living in these sort of environmental bubbles.
		And when they're out on the street, which is sort of foggy and misty and all full of some kind of gaseous mess, they're wearing masks and so forth to be even out in the street.
		And that's the kind of world we have on our hands.
		Is that the kind of thing that you're talking about here?
		Is that a possible future for our world, a world where, well, I don't know, we can just barely exist?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, I don't think so, Art.
		I think you and I both understand that the doomsayers, the really, really negative views that are out there are more often than not.
		They've been put out to sell things.
		I think a far more realistic view of it is that the world does get much warmer.
		And you as I, I'm sure, have spent some time in the tropics.
		I've just noticed that all the peoples near the equator that I've ever been around have been pretty miserable.
		Life in a really hot climate, a hot, wet climate, is not a very joyous thing.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And if you look back at sort of the great human achievements, Peter, you and I might not.
		I don't particularly enjoy it.
		All that humidity, you walk outside and, you know, five minutes you've got to have a shower.
		No, it's not for me and it's not for you.
		But some seem to enjoy it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but Hawaii is an exception.
		It's right on the ocean, and there's ocean breezes.
		I'm talking about places that I've been right on the equator itself.
		I've been in the jungles of New Guinea, far from any coast.
		I've been in Palau, far from any coast.
		And it's not Hawaii at all.
		It's much more miserable.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It wouldn't be my choice.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, it's just it strikes me as no coincidence that every equatorial people I've ever met have evolved or produced some sort of hallucinogenic drug to take their mind off things.
		Everybody has their own betel nut or kava root or gange.
		You know, they all have to get high.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
		To even live there, huh?
		And you really think this could happen to what are now the temperate climates?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I think so.
		And we both realize that global warming isn't the greatest danger.
		The greatest single danger is what was portrayed in that movie, is that global warming then kicks us into glaciation.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Global warming will be a great inconvenience, but glaciation is technological disaster.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, let's get back to man's hand in this.
		This is very controversial, and I'm not exactly sure where I come down, even myself, on the question.
		Peter, it may be the forces of nature are so profound that man's hand in this is fairly trivial, and what's going to happen is going to happen anyway.
		But you're the guy with the computer models and so forth and so on, and you can measure how much we're doing, human beings are contributing.
		So you tell me how important is man's hand in the ongoing process?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, again, we are producing the majority of CO2.
		That's being done by the Earth itself.
		We're actually putting a minority of it into the atmosphere, but what we're adding to what is already there is just enough to cause it to rise.
		And the rise, generally, there are a bunch of feedback systems.
		For instance, when it gets warmer, the Earth has evolved some really fantastic systems to scrub CO2 out of the atmosphere.
		One of these ways is building coral reefs.
		If you build calcium carbonate organisms, carbonate systems in such a way, they take carbon dioxide.
		They need it.
		And so when it gets warmer, you build more coral reefs.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But doggone, you know, Peter, I've been hearing these news stories about coral reefs dying.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That could be worrisome, couldn't it?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the problem is, too, that if you get past a certain temperature range, they do die.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I mean, they have a pretty critical temperature threshold.
		And what we're doing now is, again, the temperature rises are historic in the rate at which it seems To be going up.
		And this is what spooks me again: is looking at some of the past mass extinctions, there are about 15 past mass extinctions, and we could only find one of them that's been caused by asteroid impact.
		And the other 14 all seem to be related to rapid rise in carbon dioxide.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Do you project this scenario to the universe in general?
		In other words, when we're talking about the possibility of alien or intelligent life evolving on another planet somewhere, do you think it unlikely because they go through exactly the same cycles that you're talking to us about us going through right now?
		In other words, if in another hundred years it's going to look as you have suggested, in 200 years, who knows?
		I mean, I can see that after a while we wouldn't have the ability to contact anybody else, much less the will.
		We might not even be here.
		So is that what happens on planet after planet after planet?
		These cycles that eradicate life generally?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, actually, I just gave a lecture on what causes mass extinctions, and on the PowerPoint that I use, I have right at the bottom, the general cause of mass extinction would be the rise of intelligent life.
		I think anytime life hits intelligence, you get pointed elbows, so to speak, and I think you do dastardly things to your planet.
		So we're not evil in being alone in this.
		My suspicion is that every time a species goes from sort of non-technology to technology, a whole lot of other species die at the same time.
		So I think what we're doing probably isn't unique.
		In terms of cycles of dying, I don't think we're going to exterminate ourselves.
		I just think things are going to get miserable.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Miserable.
		Right.
		But enough of a cycle that it would depress a planet from the ability to go look for others or perhaps develop past a certain point.
		These mass extinctions would stop that, making alien life contacting us all the less possible or probable?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's a great question.
		Let's take the scenario from your book and also from the movie.
		Let's just say that Europe freezes.
		Let's say global warming takes us into a cold snap and we move Europe.
		In a situation where there's 700 million very hungry and well-armed Europeans, will anybody be taking the time to be pointing radio telescopes at stars in space?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That was my point.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think so either.
		I don't think it's a case of civilization collapses.
		I just think we're going to be sort of thinking about other problems.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, such changes would provoke any number of things, Peter.
		I mean, possibility of wars.
		And, of course, today, if we have a big war, why we could, you know, become extinct that way.
		But a large change, I mean, just imagine the one where Europe freezes.
		Well, what are they going to do?
		They're well-armed.
		They're going to go south and take land they can live on.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Exactly.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Right?
		That's going to be a war.
		And, you know, if you get the wrong parties involved in a war, then you've got a nuclear exchange.
		And then who knows, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's the horrifying point of view.
		And again, it was always the Cold War and just ideology that put us at risk between we and the Russians, which you and I have suffered through all those 40, 50 years of Cold War.
		And it's funny now that it might be climate that puts us in the same sort of danger.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, I mean, your scenario assumed, then the rest of it seems quite probable, doesn't it?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I hope not.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Again, I've got a little eight-year-old boy that's about 30 feet away from me sleeping, and those are sort of areas I just don't want to think about.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, you're a scientist, though.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You're paid to think about this stuff.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Not this time of night.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So where are we in this process?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's a fair question.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, we have the ability to change things.
		I mean, we really, at this moment, have the technology.
		What we don't have is the will.
		We have the ability to clean up the act.
		And, of course, it is made.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Tell me, how would we do it?
		I sort of don't believe that.
		But if you're saying we have the ability to actually change it, then make me a believer.
		What do we do?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the most important two areas on the planet now that we have to worry about are India and China, because it is sort of the emerging middle class on those two continents, subcontinents, if you will, that are going to dictate the history, the future history of the Earth's atmosphere.
		We and the Europeans have been spewing stuff up, and the rate of rise has been, obviously, it's measurable, and it's moving in one direction.
		But if we put two cars in every garage in China and two cars in every garage in India, and at the rate at which their economies are improving, that is certainly a possibility.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You bet.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Then we're now looking at, well, besides $6 or $7 or $8 per gallon gasoline, we're looking at an atmosphere that could very well spiral out of control.
		So there really has to be soon a realization.
		First, like any alcoholic, we are sort of gasaholics.
		We have to say, look, we've got a problem, admit there's a problem.
		And then, secondly, start looking at solutions.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I agree with you, but I don't see it happening.
		Anyway, that said, what could we do, Peter?
		You said it could be avoided.
		What would we have to do?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I saw Newsweek two weeks ago that they're counting the ability to produce between 100 and 200 mile per gallon cars.
		Certainly, if you have a hybrid and you combine it with gasoline-alcohol mixtures, you'll really start looking at the ability to do that.
		Even hybrids and SUVs that are getting 35 or 40 miles per gallon make a gigantic difference.
		But I heard something, I was in Portland giving lectures last week, and I heard something that just broke my heart because it showed me that maybe we won't reach for that solution.
		The state of Oregon has decided that hybrids are endangering its tax base.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So instead of a gas tax, they are going to have a mile per mile tax, yeah.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Per mile tax.
		So all these hybrids have to pay because as it is now, they're paying less gas tax than are the SUV people.
		I couldn't believe it when I heard that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, I can believe it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Government solutions like that are just Going to ensure that we have this global climate crisis.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I remember when there was a water crisis, and I won't even say where, it doesn't matter.
		In this giant water crisis, people were asked to please use less water.
		Well, guess what?
		They did.
		In fact, they did such a good job of using so much less water that the water company had to hike the price of water to stay alive.
		It's exactly the same thing.
		So, in other words, you get a car that gets very good mileage, and we, the state, will punish you with more tax.
		Same exact thing, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that seems to be what the solution is out here, and the West is the most liberal of the states, so I was quite surprised that Oregon would take that measure, but it was disconcerting, put it that way.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		We're talking about money here, Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, we are.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And in fact, with the entire process that you and I are talking about, you know, the changeover and using so much less and all the rest, it's all money, Peter.
		And always follow the money.
		And so the possibility of doing what you're suggesting we would have to do to stop our otherwise probable future, it ain't going to happen.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I'm wondering if there's going to be a tipping point when $3 gallon gasoline hits us, which I predict would be either late in the driving season this summer or certainly next year.
		Agreed.
		Is there going to be a psychological tipping point where finally people start saying, my gosh, we really do need to do something and start pounding on their politicians?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, why don't we look at Europe?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Europe hit $3 long ago, and they haven't tipped yet.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, but here's the special case, too, Art, as you know, that most of their governments make the majority of their tax money out of gasoline.
		And they don't have the income tax systems that we do.
		So they are hugely taxed out of gas taxes.
		And those cars already are getting twice the mileage as most of ours are.
		They drive those little bitty roller skates in France and Spain.
		There are some big cars, but an awful lot of really efficient cars, too.
		But those people have been dealing with that for 20 or 30 years.
		I mean, they're pretty indoctrinated into that.
		Whereas we've subsidized a little gasoline for so long that it will be a gigantic political shock to our system when this comes to pass.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, see, all right, you're preaching a gigantic economic change that's probably unrealistic.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't want to be mean to you here, Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's okay.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it's probably not realistic.
		I, too, do wish that we could do that, but it's not going to happen.
		So, given the fact that probably in our hearts we agree that it's not going to happen, what will?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Probably nothing then.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, yeah, I've got that.
		But I mean, you know, China is going to progress as China is progressing, and they're on their way to two cars in every garage.
		It's going to be not that many years.
		When was the last time?
		Have you ever been to China?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I have.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You have?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How long ago?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Last time was probably about five or six years ago.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		I'm talking to people who recently got back from China, Shenzhen, and even further up, way up.
		And they say China is changing at a rate that would scare the hell out of anybody who hasn't been there in five years.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, my friend said the same.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I had a friend who went who said he wanted to go see all the quaint Chinese riding bicycles.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That didn't exist anymore.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Right.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, boy.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And there are a lot of Chinese, and they're turning into a monstrous industrial nation and technological nation.
		And it seems like nothing's going to get in the way of that.
		So being realistic, Peter, this process is going to keep going.
		And I'm just saying, what do we look forward to?
		And how soon?
		100 years.
		But, you know, stuff is going to begin happening between now and then.
		In fact, it's already begun.
		So I guess I'd like to know the stages.
		In another 10 or 20 years, most of us can realistically look at at least that.
		What's going to happen?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the scariest point, as you well know, is that if it isn't gasoline that really controls the world and its wealth right now, it's going to be fresh water.
		And the biggest threat to fresh water is going to be the inevitable rise of sea level with every meter that sea level goes up in a vertical sense.
		An awful lot of rivers upriver now have salt injected into them.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That'd be right.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And the scary part I saw was that the San Joaquin Valley, for instance, is going to have a whole lot more salt injected into it.
		And that's kind of the California breadbasket.
		I saw one estimate that something like 20 to 30 percent of the Earth's crops are formed or at least grown in deltas.
		And the deltas of the world are going to suffer the most from sea level rise.
		So if we have even a couple of meters sea level rise, we're going to lose an awful lot of crop growing area.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A lot of these dire predictions, Peter, come from computer modeling, right?
		Yeah, they do.
		Talk to me about the reliability of computer modeling for climate.
		How good is it?
		Or how much error should we expect?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, some of it's good and some of it's really bad.
		The worst part about climate modeling is that, as I'm told, I don't do this directly, but I have colleagues that do.
		The hardest part is the uppermost atmosphere, the troposphere.
		The models they have for them just aren't good.
		I guess that's the best way to say it.
		They're certainly better than they were 10 years ago, but we have so little really hard information about what happens between space and the upper atmosphere and what are the effects of clouds on temperatures.
		It's very difficult to make a computer model and put clouds in it.
		And so those are the areas that people still regress in their heads.
		So that's why you get a wide variability in it.
		And that's why a lot of people say, gee, we don't have to do anything because we can't really foresee the future.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, maybe we can't.
		I mean, look, they missed the Kilimanjaro thing by 15 years.
		That's not a minor matter.
		I mean, that's right on top of us, an event that's supposed to happen within 15 years.
		But oops, look, it happened now.
		That seems like a gigantic error in the very near term, much less trying to forecast the climate in 100 years.
		Yikes.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I agree.
		It looks grim.
		What can you do?
		We've got to show up for work tomorrow.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, absolutely.
		But, you know, that's why we have scientists like yourself to you know, I mean, I don't want it sugar-coated for me.
		I guess I understand the way we're headed, and I don't think that's going to change.
		And so I want to know what's coming.
		Most people want to know what's coming, Peter.
		Ten years, twenty years, thirty years, this in-between time that most of us can relate to because we're going to be here for it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Just enjoy what we have now, I think, is probably the best lesson to give.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You remind me of Ed Dames.
		You know, his predictions get so dire, and then he just gets quiet.
		John Lear does the same thing.
		Then they both just say, well, you know, enjoy one day at a time, Art.
		That's the answer.
		Don't worry about it.
		Learn to love the bomb.
		Enjoy one day at a time.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, we did get through that.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You know, there was no Russian Holocaust.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Hold on.
		I'm going to play a love song right in the middle of all of this.
		A simple love song.
		From the high desert in the middle of the night, I'm Art Bell.
		My guest is a scientist, Peter Ward.
		And the words, well, the words are kind of dire.
unidentified		Get it in writing with the After Dark Newsletter.
		Subscribe by calling 1-888-727-5505.
		Music by Ben Thede.
		Some people wanna fill the world with sitting up songs.
		And what's wrong with that?
		I'd like to know what you're doing.
		She's got something that moves my soul And she knows I'd love to love her But she lets me down every time Can't make her mine She's no one's lover tonight with me She'll be so invited I want her all for myself
		Oh, temptation is I'm gonna find my life for Temptation is You're gonna love me You're gonna love me tonight You're gonna love me, baby Yeah Yeah Yeah
		To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
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		From coast to coast and worldwide on the internet, this is Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell.
		It's like we've talked ourselves out of a show or something.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, we're at this point where we both sort of, with a wink and a nod, agree that our present course is not going to change.
		With that in mind, the future is so predictable that, I don't know, all you can say is, smell the roses.
		Or is there more?
		We'll find out in a moment.
unidentified		The End Peter Ward is a scientist.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		He's had some pretty rough words to say, to be sure.
		But I have come up, actually, with a couple of questions.
		I mean, I thought we almost sort of just ended the show.
		But we didn't, really.
		Here's a question for you, Peter.
		You and I got to a pretty bleak point there.
		What do you think that our politicians know, and when do you think they knew it?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's a really interesting question that we in the scientific world are wondering about this current administration.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And the reason that a number of us are a little worried is that the Bush administration has not bothered to really hire first-rate people for advice.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But what if they have?
		I mean, what if they're not already, in essence, accepting what it is you said tonight and concluded that we really can't do all that much about it?
		So why turn the economy upside down?
		Might as well keep the roses around to smell for as long as we can since it's going to happen anyway.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Could be.
		I mean, that very well could be the point they're taking.
		They certainly took that point of view about drilling up in the Arctic.
		I think their point was they're realizing the gasoline devices are going to go through the roof.
		And Bonnie said we're going to get less flack over killing a lot of Arctic wildlife than we are about $3 gallon gasoline.
		So there is certainly a cynical real politic that seems to have taken hold there.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Let me be fair here.
		I'm not sure that we killed very much Arctic wildlife with the Prudhoe Bay Adventure.
		In fact, actually, the evidence is somewhat difficult, unless that's all oil company hoo-ha.
		But I mean, you hear about the caribou mating near the warm pipeline and all the rest of this stuff, that the pipeline never hurt the hair on the head of anything.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, you do hear about the 20 million extra caribou, and I've seen all that wonderful propaganda.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Is that what it is, propaganda?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, again, the people I talk to up there say that near the pipeline, an Awful lot of what has happened to that landscape is frightening compared to what used to be its native state.
		And I guess it's really: do you appreciate wildlife and local ecosystems, or do you appreciate it when we go in and use them to our advantage?
		It's a tough call.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It's a tough call.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What about Anwar?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that's the point that a lot of my people say should have been blind in the sand.
		I talked to a lot of the environmental community here because there is a lot of big money in Seattle.
		There's a lot of people that can afford to work on environmental causes.
		So there's a really large contingent here which was pretty dismayed that that happened.
		My own sense was that there's worse things that are going to happen.
		I kind of see that that was almost an inevitable one.
		I'm a little more worried about what's going to happen to the Songas Forest in Southeast Alaska.
		That's going to go under the acts for firewood that we don't really need.
		And that would have a much worse effect than drilling.
		I mean, the drilling can be environmentally careful.
		I have a lot of friends in the oil company, too, and so I think drilling and wars is not going to be as bad as what we do to, say, southeast Alaska.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		God knows, we certainly need the oil until we get something else.
		And that brings me from the politicians, which I'm sure we'll come back to, to you.
		Why can't one of you guys, you scientists, come up with something that will save our butts here?
		I mean, some great inhaler of unfriendly gases or, you know, draining something that's going to hurt us otherwise, or do something with science that'll help us out of all of this a little bit.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the best statistic I heard was sort of an incredible number where I read that GM was making a $10,000 profit per SUV.
		This was the single largest bit of money that came into their inventory.
		It's a bottom-line thing, and SUV is like so marvelous.
		And once you've got that sort of economic driver, why worry about oil prices?
		People are still buying them.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No, what I'm asking is, not that, but why can't you as scientists come up with something that will modify the environment, something that will affect in some positive way the environment?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Why not look to science for some great solution?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, here's a homily about that before I get at that question.
		I learned to my great interest the great difference between animals and bacteria.
		And it turns out that animals and all creatures that have a nucleus in their cell figured out evolutionarily a long time ago that when you've got an environment that's a problematical place, you build some new body part to deal with it.
		When you were a fish and you want to get on land, you built some lungs and some legs and this and that.
		Bacteria are so alien.
		What bacteria do when faced with an environment that they don't like, they change the environment.
		They don't change themselves.
		And they do this by creating and building chemicals.
		And they infuse these chemicals out of their cell walls until the environment has been so radically changed that there's no longer a problem.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So then why don't we act like bacteria and put you guys to work?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I think we are acting like bacteria, actually.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I think we are changing the environment so radically, but whether or not the majority of we humans can actually live in it as happy as the bacteria are, I think, is another point.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No, but Peter, I'm talking about this magic over-unity device that I'm promised by so many people.
		I'm still waiting for a toy to come wiggling through my door, even a toy.
		But something like that.
		Something along the line of the Manhattan Project to investigate some alternative energy source that would save the world.
		How about that, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, it would certainly take leadership from the top.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And I remember when the first administration of this Bush came into office, he was talking about hydrogen fuel cells.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, you're taking me back to politicians here.
		What I'm asking you is a hard science question.
		In other words, if the politicians were to set science loose and say, look, we've got a Manhattan, spare no expense kind of project.
		We need a new energy source.
		Here's the money.
		Go find it.
		Is it possible?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I don't think you actually need a new energy source.
		I think all the energy sources that we have around us are going to be sufficient.
		The first thing you would do is go back to nuclear energy and make it safe.
		If we brought in, I think, some really good 21st, 22nd century solutions to the reactor situation and shut down all the coal fire plants.
		An awful lot of my friends in the industry think we have to do just that.
		We have to go nuclear.
		That's certainly an almost unlimited source of energy right off the bat there.
		It's much less dangerous if you can take care of the containment and can take care of the waste issues.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Aha, the waste issues, yes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		There was just a story this last week that some scientist lied about Yucca Mountain, that place very adjacent to where I live, as a matter of fact.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I saw that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Did you?
		About the possibility of all this getting into the water table?
		It seems like a very serious place to tell a lie.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It is.
		Well, the going out at Hanford, we've got it right next to the Columbia River, and plutonium is moving into the water table there.
		So, I mean, that's no surprise that these are government scientists, of course.
		Again, technology can handle these things.
		I think, especially putting this stuff in glass, really does look like it's going to be a potentially good solution.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Huh.
		It seems like it would be a good solution if there weren't people who wanted to do terrible things.
		That's such a gotcha.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, that is a gotcha.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And then we're talking about, what, tens of thousands of years of safe, unmolested storage, something like that.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, that's another big gotcha.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		We can't even get past the next quarter, much less think about 10,000.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		We haven't done anything for 10,000 years.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I think you have to be a little optimistic.
		I just suspect in this particular case, if we really put our minds to it, but the point about putting minds to it, it takes a lot of dollars to put minds to things.
		And you were mentioning the Manhattan Project.
		Where in this political world, we're about to switch over to Social Security, that'll cost $2 trillion if we do this new system.
		Now, that's a lot of change.
		$2 trillion, if it were thrown at the energy problems, would certainly, I think, put us in a much better position than we're going to be.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, well, that's what I was asking.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		In other words, with enough money and enough will and a let's go to the moon kind of attitude about it, could we come up, could science pull something out for us?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I suspect so.
		I think that there's certainly that even the automobile industry, as you know, for years dealt with looking at new types of engines and always backed away simply because it was cheaper to keep the status quo.
		I mean, gas was always going to be regulated with government, so why build these really highly efficient engines?
		Toyota lost its shirt on hybrids, as did the other companies, and they're just not willing at this moment to go there.
		I mean, hybrid is a really simple technology.
		We've got that.
		We could double mileage right now, which is going to take a gigantic geopolitical problem of Mideast oil off the table to the extent that it is.
		So why don't we go there?
		There's certainly economic reasons why that does not happen.
		$10,000 in SUV is the first one.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
		All right.
		What kind of event, Peter, do you imagine that might come along that would, I mean, we do things by, you know, because of crisis in this country.
		We don't move until there's some kind of a crisis.
		So what kind of crisis do you anticipate would change our minds all over the world about this?
		How big a deal would it have to be?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, strangely enough, just off the top of my mind, and I almost hate to say this, is that if terrorists put a nuke into one of the harbors, I think that would change our mind about energy policy.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How so?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I just suspect that the trauma coming out of that, where you say you lose tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of Americans, would cause such a national rethinking about what we're doing and how things are done, that I think there would be this huge Catharctic change in an awful lot of things.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, let's hope it doesn't.
		That's certainly one of the things threatened right now.
		And you can be absolutely sure that if those who want us dead could get their hands on one of these things, they would use it that way or in some equally traumatic way.
		No question about it, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, I suspect that they would if they could get it.
		And to me, that's the greatest single fear.
		We live where I live in Seattle, it's a port town.
		We have these containers coming in all the time.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All the time.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And this is a target.
		We know they already tried to blow up the space needle.
		This was about five or six years ago, and these people are nuts.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, then let's look at proliferation for a moment, Peter.
		Is that something you know anything at all about?
		We're pressuring North Korea.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Proliferation?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I just know what I read, which is just probably the same stuff you do.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		We're pressuring North Korea right now to give it up.
		It doesn't seem likely they're going to do so.
		Iran is working very hard on a nuclear weapon.
		I don't know what stage they are, and who knows what other countries are doing it.
		Inevitable, almost?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think so.
		I don't think it has to be inevitable.
		But I think, again, the keystone of so much of our ills right now is this dependence upon foreign oil.
		And once again, I think if you get your own box in order energy-wise, and again, I think this really deals with a lot of alternative ways of fueling our cars, because it's our cars that eat up most of our oil, we can actually pursue Middle East policies radically differently.
		I don't quite yet understand why Bush or whoever is in office hasn't made it the single greatest energy policy as national security.
		You know, Carter said it was the moral equivalent of war when we had the last energy, and American people just laughed at him.
		But I think that really has to be the point now.
		It is, in a sense.
		The ills that face us are energy related.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, they are.
		I remember the last gas crisis.
		I went through that, and it was a little hiccup compared to what could happen.
		How dependent on foreign oil are we now?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, hugely.
		About half of the oil that's coming into my neck of the woods, at least, is Mideast oil.
		So it's probably, in some areas, even more.
		It's a gigantic problem.
		And I think it pushes all of the foreign policy aspects about the Middle East, our just about.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Including the Iraq war?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, including Iraq wars, including how we deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including how we deal with Tehran, including how we deal with Saudi Arabia.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Our entire viewpoint is sort of immersed in the fact that that is the world's center of oil.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, if we agree that oil is shaping our foreign policy, which is not then necessarily always the most, would it be the right word, ethical course to take, I mean, it probably makes us bend and do things we wouldn't otherwise do if it's that scale and that big,
		then why aren't we doing these things, cutting back, using automobiles that get twice or three times the gas mile, all the things that you say we could be doing.
		Why do you think we're not?
		You think why?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		There's somewhere on the line, some bottom-line company is making a profit for us not to do that.
		All that foreign oil is going through companies which make a whole lot of money selling foreign oil.
		Selling giant SUVs makes General Motors and a lot of other companies a hell of a lot of money.
		Shareholders demand that the stock market keep going up a few percent every year.
		We all say, well, that's how we're going to make our money in the stock market.
		How do you think that happens?
		It's called profits.
		So that's, you know, I'm sounding like an old communist here, and I'm way out of my field.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		but it sure makes common sense to me that were there an economic motive it would change quickly Again, what sort of event do you think would have to occur to change all the minds, including the politicians, virtually everybody screaming at once?
		Because right now, As long as it's here, it seems as though Americans as long as they can get their gas, I mean, they're cool.
		So how big a crisis does it have to be?
		$3 a gallon, $5 a gallon, $10 a gallon?
		Where does it all break apart, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, my sense is the event.
		We keep talking about events, and let's go back to...
		Well, that could be an event, but I think a much bigger event is going to be climatically driven.
		And if I sound like I'm a broken record, it all comes back to that.
		And I think the event that is going to really finally have to wake everybody up will be American agricultural production dropping drastically.
		In spite of everything else, we're still the major powerhouse for agriculture.
		Everybody eats.
		And if we start having a huge drop in farm productivity, and this could easily be spurred by, let's continue the drought system we have now and lock it in permanently.
		And let's make the entire Midwest, which is our richest grain belt, let's just dry it out as we did in the Dust Bowl years.
		Then we certainly didn't have any sort of policies that could stop all that erosion from taking place.
		Now we're in a much better shape.
		But let's face it, if you stop rainfall for the middle part of the United States and stop it for 10 years, you have created an event.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, all right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That sure would be one.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And that would do it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Take me back to the Dust Bowl.
		You mentioned the Dust Bowl.
		And I've never really exactly understood the dynamics of what caused the Dust Bowl.
		Do you, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, in a sense, I do.
		I followed the UN report on topsoils, and since about 1950 now, about one quarter of the topsoil in the agricultural regions of the world has been lost.
		But when you look where it has been lost, and of course that's what the Dust Bowl was, this was simply all the topsoil blown away, it almost always goes back to sort of a very primitive cotton-run agriculture.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So it was man that did this and not a climate change?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, it was really crappy agricultural practices in those days.
		We probably had a year or two of drought, but it was mainly the way they were farming was very ineffectually and very inefficiently.
		And now we have systems, as I understand it, where you farm contours, you work the contours, and there's a whole lot of ways that you can keep soil in place.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That is certainly interesting.
		I always, for whatever reason, assumed that the Dust Bowl was a climate event.
		No?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, it doesn't seem to be.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, well, that's amazing.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It's far more related, I think, to just really crappy.
		Well, you know what we did is we opened up the Midwest and those regions.
		Everybody got 40 acres of a mule.
		And they were finding back in those days that a 40-acre farm would actually work.
		And we always bemoan the loss of the mob and pop American farm.
		Well, those people didn't know how to farm.
		And you had just really poor practices, and it led to a whole lot of soil erosion.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, I just certainly learned something.
		I seem to recall in the Dust Bowl, the people wishing, praying, dancing for rain, as though there had not been rain in a very great amount of time.
		I mean, it's certainly portrayed in the media as a climate event of some sort, that there just was no rain.
		Peter, hold it right there.
		I mean, I'm learning something this night.
		How about the rest of you?
		Did you know that the Great Dust Bowl event was not a climate thing?
		I certainly didn't.
		I always thought that was exactly what it was.
		Not poor mom and pop farming.
		This is the first time I've ever heard anything like that.
		But then again, that's what this program is for.
		Learning things you didn't know.
		Peter Ward is my guest.
		I'm Art Bell.
unidentified		I'm Art Bell.
		Oh, yeah.
		Ah.
		I see trees of green, red and roses, too.
		I see them blue for me, and I think to myself, what a wonderful blue and
		I think to myself to talk with Ark Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
		The first-time caller line is area code 775-727-1222.
		To talk with Art Bell from east of the Rockies, call toll-free at 800-825-5033.
		From west of the Rockies, call Art at 800-618-8255.
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		I watch them grow.
		They're like much more than I love.
		And I think to myself, what a wonderful world.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, me too.
		Sometimes this piece of bumper music is just the right thing at just the right time.
		my guest is peter ward and he'll be right back Peter Ward, my guest, has a brand new book.
		It's called The Gorgon.
		Oh, there's a title for you.
		The Gorgon.
		And you ought to see the monster that is depicted right below.
		Oh, well, it seems like the moon's up there.
		Where is that, Earth?
		No, I think it's moon.
		And then there's this horrible monster.
		Horrible monster.
		It says Gorgon.
		The monsters that ruled the planet before dinosaurs and how they died in the greatest catastrophe in Earth's history.
		And that's your new book, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It's a mouthful, isn't it?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yes, it is.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, but that's still cool.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, that's a horrible-looking monster there.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Pretty cool beast, though.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		If you like dinosaurs, then they're cooler.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		If you like them.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Who came up with that?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The Gorgon term or that subtitle?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No, no, the monster.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, evolution came up with it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, yeah, all right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So I meant as an idea for the front of your book, Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, they are, because they were the biggest victims, they were the T-Rex at that time, they were the coolest animals, so why not that title?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, why not?
		All right, so this is, though, before the dinosaurs, right?
		And how they died.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, this is your ancestor on the cover of that book.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		These are mammal-like reptiles.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Don't speak for me.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Maybe yours.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The dirty little secret, of course, was there was an age of mammals before there was an age of dinosaurs.
		we've just been teaching people the wrong sort of history in school.
		And this was just really...
		Well, come on.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		None.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Big teeth, nice, great big eye sockets, big brain.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That's us.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't know about that.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You know, Ralph Stesman cartoons.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I thought they had little pea-sized brains.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, well, I mean, compared to those things around them.
		But don't forget, this is pre-dinosaurs, so they had the world, and this global warming extinction wipes them out.
		And that's why there was an age of dinosaurs.
		See, it was all a big mistake.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All a big mistake, but then corrected by Big Rock.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Totally.
		I mean, that's the bottom line, all right.
		Big Rock comes along, and things get put back on the normal track leading to us.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, so they were killed.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		They were sent on their way by global warming, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		CO2 did them in.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		CO2 did them in.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I guess the only really important thing we're discussing this morning is how much of this is us and how much is going to happen anyhow.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, that's the hard part.
		As you know, that's where models just break down.
		And we're going to have to go through it and actually see.
		But can we take the chance?
		You know, that's the point.
		We could go to all this and reduce emissions, and we have all this climate change anyway.
		On the other hand, maybe we find out, gee, if only we'd done a little bit more, we could have saved it.
		So do you take the chance?
		that's the bottom line for me.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, ugly as this sucker is, he wasn't driving an SUV, that's for darn sure.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, no, it was just bad luck that half of Russia turned into volcanic terrain.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So, I don't know.
		I look at, for example, our president.
		He's an easy target, right?
		I don't know.
		If the president knows all you think you know, Peter, maybe he's made such a not such an illogical decision.
		Perhaps weighing disrupting the economy and turning everything upside down against an unanswered question.
		And even you admit you really can't answer it about how much effect we are having.
		They opt not to turn the world upside down on a maybe.
		I don't know.
		Maybe that's the kind of decision you'd have to come to, Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think I've come to that decision.
		This is, by the way, the same president in the same party who believes that evolution should be outlawed from being taught in schools.
		Now, I mean, explain to me the logic behind that little move.
		When you move away from fact and logic and knowledge, I think you're moving back towards a dark age.
		And you just go back to what was the dark ages.
		That was why it was a dark ages, because people like our president just didn't consult their scholars.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, not teaching evolution is just stupid.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, we just elected a senator in South Dakota who went in on a plank of not teaching evolution.
		That's a senator.
		He overcame the speaker or actually the head of the Senate, Ashley.
		It was taken out by John Thun, who says that evolution never took place.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, that's pretty frightening.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It is frightening.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I agree with you.
		That's pretty frightening.
		It really kind of argues against anything going to get done.
		Well, it doesn't matter.
		I'm going to get raptured anyway.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		There we go.
		I'm going to get left behind myself.
		And those guys are selling a few books, aren't they?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Boy, I got some emails on that one, I'll tell you.
		It's my wife in the other room laughing.
		Well, so where are we with all this?
		I mean, you know, we're at this impasse where I guess we both know what's happening, and we both know that nothing realistically is going to get done.
		So it's an impasse.
		What do you say?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		But we could talk about the good news.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, I'm all for that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Let's hear the good news.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The good news is we're living on a much safer planet than we had considered previously.
		The good news is the rate at which rocks from space are falling down on us is much lower than we had worried about 10 years ago.
		But the bad news is that a number of us who study rocks from space falling on the planet as a danger are trying to get a conduit to politicians.
		And here's why.
		In 1908, as you know, there was a big event in Siberia around the place called Tunguska.
		And this was a 50-meter-wide meteor which exploded in the atmosphere and knocked down a huge amount of forest around there.
		It was called the Tunguska event.
		We now know it was caused by, again, a small asteroid, a big meteor, whatever you want to call it.
		It was an airburst, and the airburst had enough energy to be equivalent to several Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs.
		Now, we can expect things that size to hit the atmosphere about once every hundred years, and since that was about 100 years ago, all things being equal, we should expect another such event.
		Had that airburst happened over a big city, there would have been the equivalent of dropping a large nuclear weapon on a large city.
		So my point being is that a number of scientists want a conduit to the White House or to Whitehall or to any place where there's a seat in government to quickly tell them that this was not a nuclear attack.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I hear you.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		If Denver is suddenly vaporized.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Totally.
		And so the next morning, Tehran's gone.
		And somebody says, George, I'm sorry.
		There was no radiation.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, look, if it was Tehran that was vaporized, I absolutely guarantee you that George Bush would be blamed.
		And it would not matter if it was a rock from space.
		Yep.
		George Bush would be blamed.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the point is that New York City was vaporized.
		We would immediately start looking at somebody to shoot at, immediately.
		And at what point can you get to the president in such a crisis and say, hey, look, on line six, there's this pointy-headed professor who's trying to tell you that it was an airline disaster.
		People are seriously trying to get the government's attention to get a conduit in because of this.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		is there truly none now i mean if it is one of our cities rate vaporized is there no level-headed person that would imagine it might be something other We've got satellites looking for stuff in boost phase, right, from any logical place where they could be launched in Russia and China and wherever.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		you know we we have this this looking shield don't we have and we could say well we didn't see anything in the boost phase so I mean, we know that there's huge holes in this whole thing.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		There would be an immediate DEF CON, whatever it is.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		All the missiles would be put on the work.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Be DEF CON one.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, if you have, say it's the worst case scenario, New York City now is gone.
		10 million people are killed by Zareburst.
		Somebody's going to pay, right?
		Who are you going to shoot at?
		You've got to shoot at somebody.
		So this is the scary scenario that is facing a lot of people who study extinction and impact.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		so you are telling me though that there is presently no that norad or you know somebody would not phone the president and say there's probably fifty scientists on the planet who would know but right off the bat with all the Let's back up.
		What are the odds that if something of substantial size was headed toward us?
		God, I'd love a clear answer to this question.
		That we would know beforehand.
		What are the odds we'd know beforehand?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Depends on the size.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A size that would destroy a city.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You wouldn't see it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You wouldn't see it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		50 meters coming at that speed.
		There's just no way.
		There's not enough people out looking for 50 meter stuff out beyond the Earth's atmosphere.
		It would come in, it would do its job, it'd be over, and no one would know what happened.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		We'd never see it coming.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Never see it coming.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		All of a sudden, you wake up and you have this destroyed city.
unidentified		what do you do uh...
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't.
		Well, because you don't know who sent this.
		I'm trying to imagine that actually occurring.
		Because you don't know who fired the missile that you suspect, you couldn't just willy-nilly dispatch a couple of ICBMs and destroy some of your most unfavorite people.
		Or could you?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Or could you?
		The pressure would certainly on to do something.
		If you're a leader who has to show decisiveness, we've been attacked.
		We've been attacked.
		I mean, that's what it would be.
		Do something quickly.
		Certainly the military would go to full-scale alert.
		And then you always have a greater problem than a further accident.
		There's going to be provocation.
		Somebody does something.
		Somebody does something.
		And so it is a dangerous scenario.
		And it is a totally natural scenario.
		So in some ways, again, I'm telling you the world is much less dangerous than we thought.
		But because of these small things, at least to extinction or invisible, the world is almost much more dangerous as we start learning the frequency by which this sort of event takes place.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't know, Peter.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Even your supposed good news is somewhat apocalyptic.
unidentified		Well, it would be boring if it were, wouldn't it?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I suppose.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I mean, you didn't bring me on this show to talk about the evolution of my favorite possible species.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No, that's right.
		No, I do want to know whether we'd see it coming.
		I mean, even a lot of times with the bigger stuff, I've told you this before.
		We get sort of a thing in the news that says something typically like, Earth had a close encounter last Wednesday.
		Well, hey, last Wednesday.
		I never saw any story that said, hey, guess what?
		Earth's about to have a close encounter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, there have been a number of those stories, and they've always turned out to be false.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, a couple of those.
		Well, they had a couple where they said, look, it might be a, you know, coming right at us type deal.
		And then two or three days later, they changed it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Exactly.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		These, I assume, are big objects, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yes, they are big objects.
		No, this class of stuff is invisible, and it is, I guess, the worst-case scenario.
		On the other hand, it's a big planet.
		Most of it's ocean, so the greatest chance is that it's not going to be over city.
		That chance is really tiny.
		But as we populate the Earth more and more, the chance is there.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, yes, but see, there's this other thing to worry about in that case.
		Sure, I mean, you're right.
		There's more water than there is land, so there's more of a chance it would hit water.
		However, something that would destroy a city, seems to me, when it hit the water, would tend to probably displace a lot of water.
		Right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I don't know if airburst would cause a tsunami or not.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Certainly when one hits, it causes a tsunami, but airbursts is a pressure phenomenon.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, no, I'm thinking of one actually hitting.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it's got to be bigger than 50 meters, and the chances are you've got a much better chance of seeing something like that coming in.
		But the scary class are the 50-meter, because there's a lot more of them, and they are invisible.
		I have to ask what they do to water, Art.
		I've never thought of that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Probably nothing good.
		I mean, anything hitting that hard is going to displace a lot of water.
		We just had an experience with a tsunami.
		Pretty bad one.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The thing about the 50-meter things is they never hit the ground.
		I mean, they totally disintegrate in the atmosphere.
		They come down, and the reason there is an airburst is they compress the air.
		They're just not big enough to make it to the ground.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, even assuming an airburst over water.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, there could be a pressure wave of some sort.
unidentified		You're right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A good job, perhaps, for a model, considering we model everything else, so why not model an airburst over water?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It's more likely than land.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, I could find that out actually in about two days.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I'll get back to you.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Really?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I'll send you an email.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That one's easy to figure out.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'd absolutely love that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		How frequently do these size things pass by and make close calls?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		What's this?
		We never see them.
		We don't know.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, we never see them coming or going?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, not the 50-meter size things.
		But we can model, again, we have this rough model that once a century they hit the planet, the 50-meters, and caused this kind of boom.
		Again, Siberia was the unlucky victim last time.
		It took them many, many years to figure out what that was.
		I even read a science fiction book that said we ran into a black hole.
		A guy named David Brin, that was pretty idiotic, but he sold a lot of books.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You know, these big ones where we had that few days scare?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yep.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Let's say it hadn't worked out the way it did, and the scientists dismissed it and said, oh, no, it's going to miss.
		Well, suppose that object they were talking about instead actually was on a course for Earth and did hit Earth.
		What would have happened?
		I remember, it was a mile and something in size, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yep.
		Well, we probably would have lost about 5% to 10% of all species on the planet.
		We have pretty good models for size of asteroid versus the effects on it.
		So it wouldn't be anything like a dinosaur killer, too small for that, but certainly it would be big enough to, I would say, disrupt agriculture and probably take out human civilization, would be my guess.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Take out human civilization.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, the climate effects would be sufficient probably to stop farming for a while.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		How long a time...
		How long a time, if it had been headed at Earth, would we have had?
		How many years?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think it's years.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Months?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Most of these things are months or less.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, months or less.
		All right.
		I would assume that humanity would, like in the movies, gather together all of its resources, whatever they might be.
		The attempt to put rockets on it and move its orbit or blow it to smithereens or, you know, we'd try everything we could.
		What's the current thinking in scientific circles, Peter, about what we could do as a desperate measure?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the two movies you saw actually came right out of a conference that I was lucky enough to be at.
		In 1995, we had a conference asking that question.
		And Spielberg had a representative there, and the movie Deep Impact and Armageddon were both a result of that, of the three days.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'll be darned.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I was lucky enough, actually, to meet Edward Keller, who is the father of the hydrogen bomb, and had lunch with him.
		He was the perfect doppelganger, the double of Bella Lugosi.
		He looked like him, he sounded like him, and he was as scary as Bella Lugosi.
		And he was there because it was his point that a hydrogen bomb could deflect one of these.
		But it was really interesting because Los Alamos at that time, because we were just going out of the Cold War, had redirected its scientists to look for a new threat.
		In other words, you know, justify your own existence, and the one they looked for were asteroids and meteors.
		And so they put together a lot of interesting studies.
		One of the most interesting and bizarre, they did an insurance investigation on looking at the risk to the infrastructure from meteor impact.
		And they had all the various risk factors, including the number of millions of people killed.
		And they came out to the conclusion that there was less risk of asteroid impact than there was, I think.
		Well, they had to prorate it over hundreds of years.
		And so it came out to you had less risk of dying from an asteroid impact than from being hit by lightning.
		But the fact that all the deaths happened in one year, and they looked at it over sort of thousand-year time scales, didn't make me feel any happier about this.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, did they conclude that a nuclear device could explode it on the surface or what, board in as they did in the movie?
		Or how would it be done?
		Did they conclude it could be done?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You explode it as it's going by.
		I mean, this whole idea of landing on the surface and doing all that crap.
		That's such nonsense.
		I can't say that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Nonsense.
		That's nonsense.
		So instead you explode it very close by?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, and that's just going to give it a nudge.
		And don't forget that these things, all you have to do is just have a very slight course change given the distances it would still have to go because you want to get it when it's some ways away.
		It's going to miss the Earth.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So they concluded it could be done?
		Oh, sure.
		What about the downside that some people have talked about, that you smash it into many pieces that then become even more deadly for the planet than the original-sized monster?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, that's nonsense.
		They're not going to move.
		That's nonsense.
		It'll all miss you.
		So that's what you want to do.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Stay right there, Peter.
		Yes, we are going to go to the phones when we get back with Peter Ward.
		Sometimes it's such a joy picking bumper music from the high desert.
		I'm Mark Bell.
		This is Coast to Coast AM.
unidentified		We'll see you back time today.
		Don't go around tonight.
		Let's finally take your life.
		There's a bad moon on the right.
		I hear hurricanes are blowing.
		I know the end is coming soon.
		I hear rivers overflowing.
		Hey, yo, hey, yo, hey, yo, hey, yo.
		The End
		The End Wanna take a ride?
		To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
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art bell ▲ ● ▼		It is your opportunity to get in and ask Peter Ward a question, man, what a program.
		If you don't have questions, I just can't imagine why you wouldn't.
		Gotta love Fast Blast.
		Got a couple of those coming up for you.
		actually perhaps the end for peter as well in a moment the Once again, Peter Ward, whose new book is Gorgon, G-O-R-G-O-N.
		And you should look for it, I suppose, on bookstores and pryamazon.com, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That's where it is.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay.
		You've got to plug your book once in a while, Peter.
		Anyway, I've got a couple of fast blasts here before we go to the phone that I thought I'd share with you.
		They may or may not.
		One applies to you seemingly, and the other may apply to both of us.
		Ernest in Calgary says, die, you nasty American.
		I'm not sure who he's referring to there.
		And then Steve in Tucson, Arizona says, Mr. Ward, self-proclaimed old communist, that's in quotes there, doesn't offer many new solutions when asked.
		Oil sands, new scientific methods to extract the oil without harming the environment would solve our oil supply problem.
		What say you, Mr. SUV Fuzzy Math Ward?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, oil sand takes a lot of energy to get it out.
		That's the problem is it became so expensive just because it was a huge energy thing to get the energy.
		That seems like counterproductive to me.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, let's go to the phones and see what love awaits us there.
		First time caller line, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Hello, Mayan.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, you are, yes.
unidentified		This is Alan.
		I'm calling from Dallas.
		A-L-I-F.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, Cliff, of course.
unidentified		Yes, I was wondering if you guys know what the profits were for ExxonMobil in 2004.
unidentified		Have you heard about that?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'd like to hear it.
unidentified		$348 billion.
		Wow.
		I mean, now, with such outrageous profits, don't you guys smell a rat somewhere?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I smell a lot of profit.
unidentified		Don't you think there's something wrong somewhere?
		I mean, is there really a shortage?
		Have they given us a reasonable explanation of why it's gone skyrocketing prices?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't feel like I've received a reasonable explanation.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What about you, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the profits are because they're selling so much oil to the Chinese.
		The Chinese have an insatiable oil demand, and that's why the prices are going up.
		There's more demand than there is supply, but the oil companies are having a great time, of course.
		They get to sell to whoever the highest bidder is.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
		Well, they had to know that that was coming.
		I mean, whether it was the rest of the world, China and the rest of the developing world, they knew it was coming that way.
		They knew that, probably knew there was a certain amount of oil and a certain amount of demand, and they could see this coming.
		So why would they want to avert that, you know, and with all that profit?
		Right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That's a good point.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I'm just sitting here shaking my head going, well, that's pretty self-evident.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay.
		Wildcard line, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Hello.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Hello.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hi.
unidentified		Hi, this is Erica from Colorado.
		And I was wondering, I heard a long time ago that on May 5th, the year 2005, all the poles on all the planets in our solar system are going to be aligned.
		And I was wondering if, I'm not sure if he's the right person to ask, but I was wondering if he's ever heard anything like that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Oh, he's absolutely the right person to ask.
		Yes.
		Oh, yes.
		Peter, it's true.
		What, the 5th of May?
		In what year, dear?
		This year.
		This year, that's right, 5th of May.
		Boy, that's going to be soon, too.
		All the planets are going to align, and what is your expectation, Peter, of what will happen at that moment?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		My expectation is nothing will happen.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A big void.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		The planets are so far apart that, I mean, the best you could expect is that you have some gravitational effect, but gee, you know, everything, the distances are so unbelievably huge from planet to planet to planet that I doubt there's going to be much of an effect whatsoever.
		However, there will be an effect on astrologers the world over.
		And so I take that back.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Their blood pressure will rise exponentially.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Got it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But that's about it, huh?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think, it'd be an interesting point, and what a cool coincidence.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		But in terms of, at least as a physical scientist, I don't quite see how it could do anything.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
		Yeah.
		Most scientists I've asked about that have said exactly that, that we should expect absolutely nothing.
		Okay, let's see.
		East of the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Hi.
elena in winnipeg ▲ ● ▼		Hi there.
elena in winnipeg ▲ ● ▼		Thank you for taking my call.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Most welcome.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What is your first name?
elena in winnipeg ▲ ● ▼		This is Elena, and I'm just northeast of the city of Winnipeg in Manitoba, Canada.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay.
elena in winnipeg ▲ ● ▼		And I have a question.
		There was this beautiful big sand and gravel quarry pit across the road from my farm yard here where I went away for 16 years and came back.
		And the sand and gravel quarry pit, which was absolutely pristine, they had artesian spring wells, lots of birds and wildflowers and berries.
		They filled this entire quarry pit with garbage, tons and tons of garbage over the years.
		It's like approximately three city block lengths long and about a block length wide.
		They exhumed about a third of it and piled it up on the surface of the other garbage.
		And it's I'm wanting to know from your guest if it's a concern about this methane that like this garbage they dug up is the garbage that was buried 50, 60 years ago?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		This is actually a pretty interesting question.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Peter, landfills all over the world filled with this garbage that no doubt is generating methane, isn't it?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it is, and actually my university built its lower parking lot on top of a huge, old, old, old garbage dump.
		Some years after that, when they started having the most god-awful smells, they realized they had to put pipes in.
		And then not only that, do they have to put pipes in, but they had to ignite them to get rid of this methane.
		So whoever put that garbage in there should pipe out the methane because it is a hazard.
		And I would expect that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So they should pipe it into the atmosphere.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, it's the best way to concentrate it out and let the wind blow it away because otherwise it concentrates.
elena in winnipeg ▲ ● ▼		I can smell it.
		They started last July and they were digging throughout the fall and it's really quite awful.
		And like I say, I'm quite concerned because there was no publicity on This.
		There was no, nothing was, it was kind of hushed up.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Listen, thank you very much.
		It's an excellent point.
		And, Peter, we do have landfills just everywhere.
		I mean, our garbage is prolific.
		Is it producing a lot of methane?
		Is it sort of a worldwide problem?
		Could that one come back to bite us?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It is, it's a local problem.
		That amount of methane actually seems huge to us because of all the garbage that we have locally in our neighborhood.
		But if you compare that to the bottom of any ocean where you've had millions of years of plankton falling down and rotting, kind of nature's garbage, the amount of methane in the oceans is so huge compared to what we humans have done.
		That's where the danger is.
		It's natural methane we have to worry about.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I actually kind of wanted to understand the mechanism, if it can be explained, by which the oceans do soak up all of this methane.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Why does the ocean soak it up?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the ocean is so full of life.
		All the plankton floats for a while, falls down into the sediment, and all this stuff gets buried in a lot of other sediments.
		Bacteria are down there.
		The bacteria convert the organic material to methane, and it gets locked in.
		If it's cold enough, it just sits there.
		So you've got all this methane sitting in sediment, buried in the ocean.
		If you can stir it up somehow, and once again the thought is that global warming causes change in ocean chemistry and certainly ocean stratification, and bottom ocean stuff comes to the surface, and there's the problem.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What about the currents, Peter?
		I'm always looking for what would be the tripwire.
		Now, we know that if the currents changed and the warming waters stopped, that Europe would freeze.
		But also, these currents might have other effects, right?
		In terms of could they, for example, affect a methane that's now trapped.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Could be.
		And one of the really interesting things that people are looking at is the nature of currents in a globally warmed world.
		You know, we keep thinking about the superstorms and all the big manifestations that you see in the popular press.
		And while the transition time will certainly show that, once the world is thoroughly warmed, as it used to be, we could expect it to be virtually a windless and storm-free world.
		You know, the storms and the winds now are caused by one place being cold and one being hot, and the Earth redistributes the heat and the cold.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's right.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		If the whole place is warm, there's no redistribution taking place.
		So we really see the ancient, the Cretaceous, and the Eosphine when we had a globally warm world at the time, there were no storms.
		There was no wind.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		it was just absolutely dead hot and peter what causes Runaway.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yep.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, so tell me about runaway and how that gets started.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And when it does, how fast does it move?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the worst case of runaway we know of is Venus, and that's called a runaway greenhouse.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Now greenhouse is, of course, the warming effect produced by carbon dioxide.
		And Venus is 800 degrees at the surface because of its thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
		Venus was like the Earth.
		We're pretty sure that 3 billion years ago, Venus had oceans, probably had life, and exactly an Earth-like world.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Now that's something to think about.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, Art, I have, actually, you're going to have me on, I hope, in November because I have a new book called Life as We Don't Know It.
		And this is going to be a textbook written for the public about aliens.
		And one of the chapters is about aliens we could expect to have on Venus.
		If they're there now, they're up in the clouds.
		And there's a group of astrobiologists who think that Venus, the runaway greenhouse on Venus, left them stranded up in the clouds.
		There's sulfuric acid in the clouds, and we have acid life in the Venus clouds.
		But we talk about runaway.
		What we're worried about here is runaway.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		No, no, wait.
		Wait, that was pretty interesting.
		You're saying there was once life on the surface of Venus.
		Runaway began.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Runaway began.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What life there was somehow escaped to the clouds?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Are you serious?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, we're quite serious.
		Microbial life.
		And there's a number of pretty good indicators that it could still be there now, actually.
		One of my colleagues, David Grinspoon of Arizona, was the first to work out the fact that you could probably expect to have carbon life that's going to love acid, but it's going to be high in the clouds because there's a lot of acid in the clouds of Venus.
		And that it has everything it needs.
		Nutrients are up there, energy is up there.
		And if there had been life that evolved on Venus' surface, it could certainly have been carried up into the clouds.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Is there anything, once Venus ran away, is there anything cosmologically that you could imagine that would start Venus out of this cycle?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, once you run away, you run away forever.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Really?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And that will be the fate of the Earth, of course, is that our own fate is going to be a runaway sooner or later.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And Don Brownley and I, who wrote Rare Earth in another book, have posited that we have about 500 million years before we go runaway.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Welles to the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Hello.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hello.
unidentified		Art and Peter.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Where are you?
unidentified		This is Paul from Big Ditch, California.
		In Spanish, that's Arroya Grandi.
		Okay.
		I have three comments.
		First off, the cycle of global warming and global cooling is about 50,000 years.
		And since we were in the depths of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago, I would think that if the cycle is more or less sinusoidal, that we're probably right now about at the zero crossover, at which point you have the greatest rate of change of heating.
		So we still aren't at the highest point of the global heating that follows a global cooling.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Are you okay with this so far, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, I'm going to disagree gently, but go ahead, let's finish up.
unidentified		Okay.
		The second point is about three or four months ago, I read Letters by two scientists to the industrial physicist where they said that in a geologic record it shows that carbon dioxide lags global warming rather than leads global warming.
		And the third point I had to make is back in 1954, I was paying between 25 and 30 cents a gallon for my gasoline.
		At the time I was making a dollar an hour.
		That same job pays at least $20 an hour now, so it's 20 times as much.
		And yet the price of gasoline is only 8 times as much, which means it's probably a much better bargain.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Do you work for excellence?
unidentified		And one final thing I might throw in is the alignment of the planet.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Do you work for excellence?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Do I?
unidentified		No, I'm retired.
unidentified		I designed propellers for racing planes and electronic ignition planets.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I had to ask.
		That's all right.
		Go ahead with point four.
unidentified		Oh, in the alignment of the planets, I would expect that the mass center would be somewhat off-center from the sun, and that might cause some kind of tidal effect.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Okay, that's a lot of points.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Peter, which ones do you want to take on here?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, let's think about the first one, though.
		And that's a really interesting point about the heating cycles.
		But it turns out that we have a really good record of heating and cooling.
		They come from the ice cores.
		They drilled cores in Lake Bostok and also in Greenland and Antarctica.
		And from that, they have a really good record of what CO2 is like.
		And also, they know directly.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, you said 50,000-year cycles.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it's not.
		It turns out that we have 90,000 years of hot and 10,000 years of cold.
		And we've just come through the 10,000, I'm sorry, wrong, 90,000 years of cold and 10,000 warm.
		We've just had 10,000 warm since the last glaciation.
		So we should expect to dip now into a new glaciation that should last about 90,000 years.
		That's not going to happen.
		The CO2 we're pumping in now is going to make sure we don't go into a new glaciation.
		So in some respect, actually, we are saving ourselves from glaciation, but it's not a 50,000-year cycle, actually.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Is it as you suggested sinusoidal?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Sinusodal is a regular curve, and this is very asymmetrical.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It's a short-warm, a long cold, a short-warm, a long cold.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But is it predictable almost precisely as it is?
unidentified		Kind of.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You know, there's some moderations, and it's really related back to the three aspects of the Earth.
		It's still its obliquity, its eccentricity that goes around the Sun.
		Milton Milankovich years ago was the first to really figure out why there had been glaciations.
		It's all related to how much sunlight hits us and the distance from the sun.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And volcanoes.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		They seem to have a lot to do with this process, don't they?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		They do, but volcanoes, again, the heat flow from the Earth is pretty constant over sort of million-year intervals.
		So we can almost, at least in terms of looking at the ice ages, it's pretty constant.
		You know, if you take it over year by year and say, hey, this year we have volcanoes, next year we don't.
		But take it over longer time cycles, heat flow is about the same.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		Hold it right there.
		Peter Ward is my guest.
		Fascinating stuff.
		I'm sure you have questions, judging from the way the phones are ringing.
		You obviously do.
		from the high desert in the nighttime where we do all our business.
		This is Coast to Coast AM.
		I'm Art Bell.
unidentified		Coast to Coast AM
		Once a month when you were to make a colour,
		I wonder if you think about me Once upon a time In your wildest dreams Once the world was new Our bodies felt the Lord And you that reached a brand new day We couldn't tear ourselves away I
		wonder if you went I wonder if you still remember Once upon a time In your wildest dreams When the music plays When the words are touched with sorrow When the music plays I hear the sound I had to follow Once upon
		a time Once upon a time Once beneath the stars The universe was ours Love was all we knew And all I knew And all I knew was you I wonder if you know I wonder if you think about me Once upon a time In your wildest dreams
art bell ▲ ● ▼		well, that was my request, and as much as I could get in there, I've been fake to do that.
		I always play little pieces.
		There you've got it.
unidentified		We'll be right back.
		We'll be right back.
		To talk with Art Bell, call the wildcard line at area code 775-727-1295.
		The first-time caller line is area code 775-727-1222.
		To talk with Art Bell from east of the Rockies, call toll-free at 800-825-5033.
		From west of the Rockies, call 800-618-8255.
		International callers may reach ART by calling your in-country sprint access number, pressing option 5, and dialing toll-free, 800-893-0903.
		From coast to coast and worldwide on the internet, this is Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Those are the conduits to get to us.
		And us would be represented by Peter Ward.
		He's my guest.
		I'm Art Bell.
		This is Coast to Coast AM.
unidentified		don't move.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A scientist on board this morning.
		His name is Peter Ward.
		And it's been kind of grim in a lot of ways.
		A lot of this has been kind of grim, but I guess that's just the way it is.
		And we're continuing to take calls for Peter.
		Peter, again, I really do.
		When my guests don't come out and plug the heck out of their own books, I sort of have to make them.
		Do you want to plug Gorgon more or your new one coming or what?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, I always feel a little funny about this.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think I'm on the radio to plug books.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, yeah, but hey, it's a fair trade.
		It really is a fair trade.
		We get so much information from you, so much to think about, that it's a reasonably fair trade.
		So plug your books.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, have me back in November, and I'll give you a show that I think will just really thrill you folks about a really realistic view of what alien biochemistry might be and the NASA work that is now actually constructing aliens on this planet.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		It sounds like a bad movie, but it's really true.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Depend on it, then.
		All right.
		First time caller line.
		You're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Good morning.
		Hi, Ark.
		Hi, Peter.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hi.
		You're going to have to yell at us a little.
		You're not too loud.
unidentified		Oh, okay.
		I just had a quick question about meteorites.
		You said like a 50-meter meteorite.
		If it was to hit a city, it would destroy the whole city.
		I was just wondering if it was possible for one to maybe blow up like a nuclear bomb and then have double the effect of just the meteorite hitting the city.
		And I'll hang up and let you answer that.
		Thanks.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		You'd have to have some bomb already present in the city.
		I hate to think that there are too many nukes in American cities, but I guess I wouldn't put it past our military.
		Most nuclear weapons are difficult to explode, and they have to have some actual electrical stuff happen to them, as far as I know.
		I don't think an airburst would actually probably do that, but who knows?
		So maybe.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Have you worked at all in the nuclear weapon arena, Peter?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Or did you ever have that career path open to you?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, the closest I've come, again, is I have been to a lot of conferences where we're trying to think about defense, planetary defense.
		And the nuclear weapons people were there with us.
		So I was just one of the scientists trying to talk about the threat, and they were there trying to talk about the solution.
		But to me, the solution sounded a lot like the threat.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
		Wildcard Line, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Good morning.
unidentified		My name is Jessica, and I'm calling from Western North Carolina.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hi, Jessica.
unidentified		I have a comment about the methane produced by landfills.
		Here in an adjoining county, there is a business incubator project in conjunction with a local technical college that teaches fine craft.
		And they've actually set up a building on top of an old landfill using the methane to fire kilns for ceramic work and also fine art glass kilns.
		The artists are given a two-year period to use this facility to develop a following for the art that they're creating.
		And then they are expected to move on and establish their own studios.
		And then new artists will be allowed to use this facility.
		But instead of just burning off the methane into the atmosphere, they're actually tapping it.
		And I can't see where this kind of philosophy can't be applied in other areas, not just, you know, procraft.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It's a very, very good question.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What about methane as a power source itself, Peter?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, it's a great point.
		I think it just shows the ingenuity that we in this country can do.
		And so many of the problems that we face actually can be tackled on a local basis.
		And that's a great solution.
		I know of other people that are trying to do similar sorts of Things to use this energy.
		There's actually so much great energy tied up in the garbage dumps of America, as well as recyclable minerals and metals.
		I mean, think of all the computers.
		Every two years, your computer is no longer usable, it's gone obsolete.
		They all end up in a landfill somewhere.
		And now a lot of people are trying to recycle some of that stuff.
		So it's a great comment.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		What about the stores of methane, though, that we were talking about earlier, the threatening stores of methane?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Is there any extraction process?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, people are now worried.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, there isn't.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Should there be?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Could there be?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't know.
		I suppose the engineers could really take a good hard look at this.
		The extraction process in the Arctic would probably not be a good one because the stuff is so diffuse.
		It's not present in any particular small area in high enough concentration.
		It's the entire gigantic area in which it's stored that makes it of a very large volume.
		In terms of the Black Sea, I don't know, but that's the scariest one because the Black Sea, we know, is the only ocean that has so much organic material at the bottom, more than any of the other oceans, because there's no oxygen down there.
		So every bit of organic material that goes down isn't oxidized.
		It stays in the reduced form, and it's the reduced compounds that have all the energy in them.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So if we see an event in the Black Sea, that would be like the canary in the mine plopping over on its side?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah, well, at least there's some recognition that there's a problem about this.
		Even five years ago, this wasn't on the radar screen.
		And now in the scientific journals, you see an awful lot of articles about methane.
		There's this tremendous realization that we've overlooked this.
		And perhaps someone should take a good hard look.
		Well, any number of someones are now doing that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		East of the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Warden.
		Art Bell.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Hi, Art.
unidentified		Thanks for taking my call.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Sure.
unidentified		This is Mike from Nashville.
		You know, when we was going to the moon, it was a competitive thing.
		It was a race to the moon.
		And on our energy, I'm thinking more in terms of the automobile industry and the trucking industry and all, that certainly put a lot of stuff into the atmosphere.
		And it has a great deal to do on our economy.
		And it looks to me like we're going to have to look for other things other than fossil fuels.
		But there's nobody else.
		There's not no race in this arena.
		And there's no reward for it, whether it be politically or whatever.
		And until somebody else, maybe China, we're selling them a lot of Buicks now.
		I saw that on 60 Minutes the other night.
		If they start doing that, Willie Nelson has been heading up a thing with burning soybean oil.
		And, you know, we can grow that, and it helps the farmer, and it helps the economy, and it also helps, you know, get away from fossil fuel.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I'm certainly very well aware of that, color.
		As you know, I interviewed Willie Nelson the other night.
		Peter, it's true.
		Willie's talking about biodiesel, a couple of different forms really of biodiesel, but stuff that farmers can grow.
		How do you feel about that as, I don't know, a move in the right direction?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, it's a tremendous move.
		And again, I saw an article where they're talking about biodiesel combined with hybrid technology.
		And they're talking about at least 100 mile per gallon and maybe 150.
		And you're not using anybody's oil but our own.
		I think it's just so fantastic.
		I do not understand why there are not gigantic tax credits now being waved around.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't know why we're not using it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I mean, it's my understanding, unless Willie was wrong, and I don't think he was.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't think he's wrong at all.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You can take this stuff and just put it into the existing trucks, the diesel trucks that are roaring across at a giant rate, not only here, but in China as well, with no conversion whatsoever.
		Just take this bioproduct, put it in the tank, and go.
		That's it.
		There's no magic beyond that.
		It'd be a boon for the farmers and a boon for us.
		I don't see why we don't do it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, the reason we may not be, and again, I don't know, but I'm curious as to what the emissions of that stuff will be.
		Again, we're regulated to the point now that we have to have highly refined gasoline.
		And this stuff just may not be refined to the point you may actually have more emissions coming out of this.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I don't think that's true.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't know one way or the other.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		I can't say it for an actual fact, but I had a number of people send me graphs showing the emissions to be much less troublesome.
		Well, there you go, then.
		And so even if it's an even bet on the emissions side, or it's a little bit better bet, considering the source and what we'd be offsetting, it seems worth doing no matter what.
		So there you are.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		There you go.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		West of the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Good morning.
unidentified		Morning, Art and Peter.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hi.
unidentified		This is Patrick from Fort Collins, Colorado.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, Patrick.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Are you on a phone or a speaker phone?
unidentified		A phone.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		A phone.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You're going to have to yell at us because you're not very loud.
unidentified		Okay.
unidentified		My question is, what are the odds of a meteor coming down and coming to the Earth's atmosphere and becoming a new moon?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Ah, becoming a new moon.
		Yeah.
		That's a cool idea.
		It would have to be a pretty good meteor to go into orbit.
		I think it's probably a very small chance, and here's why.
		Most of the orbits that the meteors have that are Earth-crossing, they already have such high speed that they're going to go by so quickly we can't capture them.
		They just either hit us or they go by us.
		And some have even gone through the atmosphere.
		Strangely enough, though, if you're a big planet like Uranus or Jupiter, you can capture moons.
		And Saturn may have captured many of its small moons.
		So it's a really good question.
		It's just our Earth is probably too small to do that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, out of curiosity, then, how did we get our moon in the first place?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		We got hit.
		We got hit really hard by a Mars-sized planet.
		And our moon is sort of the wreckage thrown out from that.
		It just went up into space, but it was moving away from us at a slow enough speed that the Earth's gravity captured it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Great.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		When might that have happened?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That happened about 4.6 billion years ago.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Bang.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		And some of the really interesting reasons we think the Earth is so rare may be related right back to that.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		To the moon, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Yeah.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Not many places have a moon like ours.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		And actually, it's required for life in some ways, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, yeah.
		It does an awful lot.
		Well, it certainly gives us the tides.
		Tides are really highly involved.
		But there may be even more subtle and more interesting things.
		If the moon were not there, the Earth would be flopping around on its axis.
		We would not be in this 23.5 degrees.
		We would be changing all over.
		So the tropics becomes the Arctic, and the Arctic becomes the tropics.
		Mars does that, and the Earth would too without the Moon.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		So when everything was new, there were a lot of rogue things whisking about to hit us.
		But now we're a little bit older, and most of them have either hit or not.
		Is that fair to say?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, yes.
		And the reason we're not being hit is because of Jupiter.
		And one of the reasons that I think the Earth is so rare is that if you do not have a Jupiter-sized planet at the distance of our Jupiter, you're hit a whole lot more.
		So any planet that does not have a Jupiter in its system that is the right distance gets blasted and blasted and blasted over and over and over.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		People may remember how many objects hit Jupiter just not very long ago?
		It was, what, 13 or something?
		17 maybe.
		I forget a whole bunch of them.
		Shoemaker Levy.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		That was a comment that came in.
		One of the reasons that SETI doesn't like me very much is that when you start looking at the odds for Earth-like life or planets like Earth that have a long stability, you start seeing an awful lot of things about our planet that are pretty special.
		Not unique, just special.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Have you had debates with SETI people?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, over and over and over.
		I mean, I debated Frank Drake on national radio.
		I've debated Seth Szostek about six times in front of the public.
		I've debated.
		Jill Tarter really doesn't like me.
		So I've had a lot of debates with him.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Do you think Jill would debate you again?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		She might.
		I mean, it was a really funny moment.
		I was with Paul Allen when she was trying to talk Paul out of the $12 million, and I handed him a copy of my book, Rare Earth, which has just come out.
		And it was kind of like the scene in the Exorcist.
		It was like, it's birds.
		It's birds.
		Get away from him.
		He's the devil.
unidentified		Yes, well, I can see how they would think of you that way.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		East of the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
		Hello there.
		East of the Rockies, going once, going twice.
		Are you there?
unidentified		Is this west or east?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		East.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's you.
unidentified		Oh, okay.
unidentified		I had a question for Peter.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
unidentified		As portrayed in the movie, Day After Tomorrow, with the things that's happening now, do you believe that we would hit anything like that storm that would throw us into that?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, that's a fair question.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Could such a storm as depicted in The Day After Tomorrow conceivably occur?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, physically impossible.
		And that's the worst thing about the movie is to make it dramatic, they sort of sped up everything so quickly.
		There's no known way that you could have a storm that could be so cold so quickly that it would freeze everybody to that extent.
		They walked out and they were frozen.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Right.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, in a two-hour movie, there's no conceivable way to do it.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Nope, there isn't.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Otherwise.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh, so the storm was an impossibility.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		There you have it.
		First time caller line, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Hello.
unidentified		Hello.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Hi.
unidentified		Hi.
		Good morning.
		I have two-part question.
		I love your show.
		Thank you.
		From Connecticut.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Oh.
unidentified		And the first question is that is it possible from yesterday's show that I could get a copy or something like that?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes, that doesn't relate to today.
unidentified		No, I know.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		You can always contact the network.
		You can go on and streamlink and listen or you can get a copy.
		Yes, the answer is.
		Yes.
		Okay.
unidentified		And the second question is for Peter Ward.
unidentified		If based upon yesterday talking to John Lash, after he spoke, did you have any comment or aware of what John Lash talked about in terms of the Archons versus what he might discover?
art bell ▲ ● ▼		This isn't a good question for Peter Ward.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I didn't listen to the show.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		I don't quite know what you're referring to.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		It was about Gnostic knowledge, ancient knowledge, and totally unfair to force it to meet.
		Yeah, I understand.
		West of the Rockies, you're on the air with Peter Ward.
		Good morning.
unidentified		Morning Art.
unidentified		This is Jason in Portland listening on 1190 KEX.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		That's the way to promo.
unidentified		Yes, sir.
		I was just wondering, I heard the reason that we have the moon is to sustain life, and the reason Jupiter is there is to keep out the rocks from hitting us.
		But maybe it wasn't just all by accident, but maybe that it was constructed to be that way.
		And a part about the changing of the center of mass from the sun and the planets.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Well, let's not rush by the constructed that way.
		Peter, you want to comment on that?
		In other words.
		Designed that way.
		Created that way.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		So unique.
		I'm not a fan of intelligent design.
		In science, we have something called parsimony, which tries to get the simplest possible explanation.
unidentified		Like Arc Razor, right?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Well, yeah, it's a lot simpler to invoke physical laws than to invoke something as absolutely as complicated as the creator.
		Making a creator is really hard.
		Making gravity is a lot easier.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		But you say it's rare in a rare Earth, but it's not so rare that it causes you to embrace the possibility of intelligent design.
unidentified		Right, and I have a question.
		I'm sorry.
		Art, on that point, you brought up something a couple weeks ago, like, relating to the movie Contact.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Yes.
unidentified		Like how you study ants.
unidentified		Like how how do you think that is any different that we would be able to communicate with alien beings in the same way that in the way we relate to ants.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right, we're so short on time, sir.
		I hate to do it, but I've got to leave you there.
		Do you think of it ever that way, Peter?
		That we would be to aliens as ants are to us?
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		No, I just personally think that we're not really that stupid.
		I can't imagine there would be aliens so much smarter than we.
		We got to this technology, this pretty damn good technology.
		Maybe there are.
		Maybe the universe is vast and there's hugely vastly greater intelligences, but I doubt it.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		All right.
		market has been a pleasure as always having you on you promise of good show coming up in dickman My whole company is just dying and going to heaven to think I could do a show after it came out.
		Well, then let them go.
		At least to somebody's design.
		Peter, thank you.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		Thanks, Laudar.
peter ward ▲ ● ▼		See you again next time.
art bell ▲ ● ▼		Good night, my friend.
		And to all of you, I return you to the week nights, and we'll see you again next weekend.
		Here are the right words from Crystal.
unidentified		In the desert, shooting stars across the sky.
		This magical journey will take us on a ride.
		Filled with the longing, searching for the truth.
		Will we make it to tomorrow?
		Will the sun shine on you?

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