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Jan. 15, 2024 - Uncensored - Piers Morgan
47:26
20240115_piers-morgan-uncensored-100-days-since-oct-7-red-s
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A Mother's Return Home 00:11:50
Tonight on Piers Morgan Uncensored from New York City.
It's been 100 days since the Hamas attacks plunged Israel into a brutal war and the Middle East into mounting chaos.
I'll talk exclusively to an emotional Thomas Hand who mourned his kidnapped eight-year-old daughter only to discover she was still alive and then she came home.
Plus sub-zero chills blast Iowa as resident Republicans picked their presidential nominee.
Can the Nikki Haley surge freeze Trump in his tracks?
Is Ron DeSantis about his put his campaign on ice?
Well no, tonight the race for the White House starts right here.
Live from New York, this is Piers Morgan Uncensored.
Well good evening from New York and welcome to Piers Morgan Uncensored.
The next few days will be seismic for a presidential election here that will itself change the world.
And the decisions now being taken in the Middle East could dramatically change the world too.
And the next president, of course, will oversee them.
It's now 100 days since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel, raping, killing and kidnapping civilians in a barbaric medieval rampage.
To those now ferociously criticizing the escalation in the region, remember who escalated this in the first place.
Hamas shattered peace in the Middle East and they knew exactly what the response would be.
Well yesterday they reminded the world exactly what they are, releasing a sick video of three of the 136 hostages still trapped in Gaza, including Noah Aghamani, a student kidnapped from a rave on the back of a motorbike, while her mother now battles terminal cancer at home.
Well tonight Hamas released another video, this time just of Noah.
And this time she was taped saying that the two men who appeared alongside her yesterday are now dead.
Make no mistake, the vile people who took these innocent people as hostages are responsible for the catalyst of horrors we're now witnessing.
There's no moral defense for Hamas.
But many of the pro-Palestine protesters who took the streets again this weekend in New York, Washington, D.C. and London do have a point.
The civilian death toll in Gaza is testing the upper limits of proportionality.
More people are dying every day than in any other conflict in modern history.
Israel's no plan for life beyond the war except occupation or anarchy.
And the nightmare scenario of a conflict engulfing the region is edging closer to grim reality with US-led strikes on Yemen and fears of war in Lebanon.
Prime Minister Netanyahu pandering to extremists who prop up his government says nothing, not even the International Court of Justice, will stop him.
100 days to the atrocious day where our citizens were butchered and abducted.
We continue with the war to the end, to the full victory until we achieve all the objectives.
Liquidating the Hamas, bringing back their hostages and the promise that Gaza will never become yet again a threat to Israel.
We're going to bring back safety to the south and to the north.
No one is going to stop us.
Neither The Hague, not the axes of evil and nobody else.
Well, reports here in the US say that President Biden hasn't even spoken to Netanyahu for more than three weeks, simply because he won't listen to his calls for caution.
Well, he should, and soon.
Israel is vital to the West.
It's the only democracy in the Middle East.
It's a bulwark against Iran and its proxies.
It's supposed to be a safe haven for the Jewish people after centuries of persecution.
So yes, America is right to defend Israel, just as Israel has a right to defend itself.
But it can't be handed a blank check signed in Palestinian blood.
Israel has dropped almost 30,000 bombs and shells on Gaza in 100 days, eight times more than the US aimed at Iraq in six years of war.
It's true that every war in human history has taken many lives, including many innocent civilian lives, but 24,000 people in three months, with God knows how many more beneath the rubble?
Is that still a proportionate response?
Every day of this war, I've asked that question of many guests.
From afar, it's looking increasingly like the answer is becoming no.
It's true that the Allied forces killed masses of innocent people in Dresden, in Hiroshima, and beyond to defeat the Nazis in World War II.
But that was 79 years ago.
We created systems of international law to make sure the atrocities on both sides would never be repeated.
It's true this was Israel's 9-11 and there was no public appetite for restraint back then.
But that yearning for justice took US into two disastrous and deadly wars.
Shouldn't Israel learn from those mistakes?
And it's true that Hamas is an oppressive, misogynistic terror group which hides in tunnels and uses its people as human shields.
But 85% of the entire population has now been displaced.
70% of Gaza's homes and half of its buildings are damaged or destroyed.
Only eight of its 36 hospitals are running.
Two-thirds of schools and 100 mosques have been damaged by Israel's bombardment.
Is destruction on this scale really what it takes to eradicate Hamas?
And if the answer is yes, well why are they still in charge?
When will Israel provide some evidence that it has a plan for life after this war, for the Gazans and for Israel, and that that plan is remotely workable?
There are major unanswered questions about this war with major consequences for the world.
But the most visceral consequences of the last hundred days have fallen most heavily on the shoulders of the people behind the numbers on both sides.
People like Thomas Hand, whose daughter Emily turned nine during 50 days in Hamas captivity as a hostage.
Thomas Hand's emotional interviews brought home the reality of this war for those of us who can only imagine the pain, including most movingly when he wrongly assumed that she was dead.
They just said, we found Emily.
She's dead.
And I went, yes!
That was the best possibility that I was hoping for.
She was either dead or in Gaza.
And if you know anything about what they do to people in Gaza, that is worse than death.
So death was a blessing, an absolute blessing.
Well, thankfully, it turned out that the real blessing was that Emily wasn't dead.
She wasn't actually mistreated in the way that Thomas feared most at the hands of Hamas and eventually she was returned to him.
And people like Thomas Hand are what this war should never lose sight of.
We should never forget that there are still 136 hostages being held in captivity.
It's also why Israel must be better than the evil it's trying to overcome.
Well I spoke to Thomas Hand and his daughter Emily shortly before we came on air today.
Well I'm delighted to say I'm joined now by Thomas Hand and by his daughter Emily.
So Thomas it's fantastic to see you both.
It's great to see you because I guess because I'm a father I have a 12 year old girl myself.
I'm Irish and so your story of so many stories in this awful war resonated with me very personally and I can't tell you how thrilled I was when you were reunited with Emily and let me start just by asking you about that moment for you.
What was it like for you to finally, after everything you'd been through, thinking she was dead, then hearing she might be alive, then hearing she was being released, the moment that we all watched on video when she ran towards you, what were you thinking?
It was unbelievable.
It was a miracle.
When we were waiting, they were supposed to have released her much earlier than that during the day, according to our agreements.
But we waited a long time.
And during that time, of course, I'm thinking something's gone wrong, something's going to go wrong, either on the Hamas side or on our own government side, the Israeli government side.
You know, you just, until I saw the colour of her eyes, I could not, I couldn't hope.
I had to keep my feelings and emotions down.
I can see her sitting there.
She doesn't speak much English.
You brought her up speaking Hebrew.
But she wanted to sit in on this interview with you, which I guess may be an indication just generally of not wanting to leave your side very much.
How has she been doing, Emily, since she got back?
To be very honest, she's doing incredibly well.
Kids are just amazingly resilient.
Her speech is almost back at full volume.
She's eating like a horse.
She sleeps well.
Not too many nightmares.
Not too many nightmares.
The occasional one, but sometimes I just watch her in the night and when I see her crunching up her face, I wake her up and break the nightmare.
And how are you doing, Thomas?
Because you've been through so much in the last hundred days.
Your peaceful life was suddenly just thrown to pieces in so many ways.
And I'll come to some of the other ways that people may not even realise.
But how are you doing?
I'm actually doing very well.
I actually wasn't in a great position before this all started, mentally, depression.
But because of it all, it's made me stronger.
If you can get through this, I can get through anything.
Ken.
All the interviews, all the television interviews, the newspaper interviews.
You're reliving not just that day.
My day started the evening before.
So I'm living from the 6th, the evening of the 6th, to whenever the interview took place.
Like, I'm maybe going to have to relive it again for you from the 6th till this date.
And so I was at one point talking 12 hours a day, every day of the week.
And that's basically what you do in therapy.
It was free, free psychotherapy.
So I'm much stronger.
On October the 7th, I know that we know now that Emily, of course, was having a sleepover with her friend Hilla.
And her mother was to play a very important role with what then happened with Emily.
And we'll come to that.
The Truth About Emily 00:11:32
But what was your first inkling that something very bad was going down?
Right.
Yeah, it was instinct.
There was no way to work out something like that was happening.
It was just, it was a feeling.
a feeling of dread something not right on that day.
Since we pulled out of Gaza in 2005, we've been peppered, hammered with Qassam rockets from Gaza all the time.
And we're used to that.
We just get the siren.
It's Savor Adon.
It comes over the whole intercom connections.
Even on your phone, Savor Adon, Savor Adon, means red colour.
So wherever you are, you look for the nearest bomb shelter and get there pretty swiftly.
We have in kibbutz Bayer E we have 11 seconds, which isn't a long time, but you don't panic.
And at first you panicked, you ran like the clappers, but as the years go by, you just drop everything in a second, there's no panic, you just swiftly get there.
11 seconds is quite a long time.
The full horror of what is actually unfurling took quite a while to be understood by people, the kind of medieval barbarism that was going on.
But what was the moment, Thomas, for you that you realized that Emily was gone?
Not for a few days later.
I'm sorry, but my time scale has completely gone.
These last three months seemed like a year already, so I have no time reference anymore.
But within a week, I was informed that she'd been found dead in the kibbutz.
Well, coming up more from my exclusive interview with Thomas Hand and his daughter Emily, that's Uncensored Next Live from New York City.
Welcome back to Uncensored Live from New York City, more now from my interview with Thomas Hand and his nine-year-old daughter Emily, who was kidnapped by Hamas on October the 7th.
I spoke with Thomas about the weeks he believed his daughter was dead.
There was an extraordinary interview that you gave to Clarissa Ward at CNN.
I know Clarissa used to work with her.
And I want to just play a little clip from that.
This was when you believed that Emily had been killed.
They just said, we found Emily.
She's dead.
And I went, yes!
That was the best possibility that I was hoping for.
She was either dead or in Gaza.
And if you know anything about what they do to people in Gaza, that is worse than death.
So death was a blessing, an absolute blessing.
That was such an agonizing interview to watch, Thomas.
Can you remember your feelings at that point when you really did think you'd lost her?
I completely understood what you were saying, but can you remember how you felt?
Yeah, absolutely relieved, because in a way it was very prophetic.
And I'm sure half the people, well, 90% of the people in the world would not realize what I was saying, how bad the Hamas can treat their hostages.
And yes, death was much better than anything that they were going to do to her.
She was at peace.
She was at rest.
I could be resting.
I could be at peace.
I could just do the natural process of grieving.
Instead of, what, 139 hostages are held still there?
So all the families and all the friends are going through that now.
Thankfully, I didn't have to go through that.
I went through it for almost two months, but they're still there.
100 days, 101 days now.
And you know, Thomas, even as I'm speaking to you, I've just been sent a note that two more hostages have now been confirmed to have been killed.
That's just been breaking news as I'm talking to you, which just goes to show that the horror of people who've now had to wait 100 days and then to get news like that, it is unimaginable to me what everyone in that position must be going through.
Yeah, it's an absolute nightmare.
Sorry, but do you have their names at all?
Yes, I do.
I've just been sent it now.
Hamas has released a video appearing to show bodies of two hostages, Yossi Sharabi and Itai Sverski, who appeared alive in a video.
They were in a video released by the group yesterday.
In a new video, the third hostage, Noah Argumani, says the pair were killed because of Israeli airstrikes.
She was obviously speaking as a hostage.
Hamas has produced no evidence for that claim.
But this follows that video they released yesterday.
So Noah is gone?
It seems that Noah's alive and was making the video announcement that the other two had died at the hands of an Israeli airstrike.
Right.
Yeah.
Ellie.
No, no, it wasn't Ellie, it was Yossi, Akhan, Yossi.
Yes.
Yossi Sharabi and Sverski.
Again, they were from Kibbutz Beri and Sverski was with Emily for the whole duration of her captivity.
There was nothing wrong with him.
So they've killed him.
Okay.
And of course, blaming the IDF.
Why wouldn't you?
Yeah.
Well, thank God Noah is alive and hopefully she will stay that way.
So yeah.
And Noah's mother is such a such a yeah.
I'm so sorry to have had to told you that.
I just felt it was important given you were just talking directly about the hostages that you should be aware of that news.
Oh Christ, yeah.
And you know Yossi, his brother is there as well, Ellie, or he's already dead, I don't know.
But Ellie, he saw, probably saw his wife being shot to death and his 16-year-old daughter and his 13-year-old daughter, Noya and Yel Sharabi and Leanne.
Let me take you back, Thomas, to when you discovered that Emily may be still alive.
You weren't even certain, but you were told there were indications that she might be still alive.
Yeah.
Yeah, at the time it was the lack of evidence that she was dead.
That there were three stages.
You were either dead, missing because they didn't know where you were, or confirmed as a hostage, taken away.
And because she was no longer dead, they didn't find her body anywhere.
They didn't find any DNA.
So you have to presume she's missing and probably, only probably, hostage in Gaza.
But then later on, funnily enough, on the night of a ceremony honouring the hostages, an eyewitness came up to us, someone we knew, and said she saw Emily, Hila, her friend, and Raya, the mother, being led away to Gaza, put in the back of the truck and taken away.
So that's when she went through the whole spectrum.
She was dead, she was missing, and then she became a hostage in Gaza.
And for you, having already told the world that you would have preferred to think that she was dead than being held hostage, that emotion for you when you realized your worst fear may actually now have been realized.
That was like being punched in the stomach by a professional boxer.
Yeah, your heart sank, your mind went into overload of what's going to happen to her.
Yeah, that was the worst moment out of it all.
The worst.
Just falling into that bottomless pit of despair.
Ken, that was awful.
And the greatest moment for you, by contrast, must have been the moment that you were told that she was going to be released.
How did you hear that?
So I'm sitting in the David Hotel outside on a chair.
And funnily enough, I had a reporter sitting right next to me.
It was not exactly an interview, but a pre-interview.
And I got a phone call from the army saying, Emily's on the list.
And you can imagine, I wanted to jump up and scream.
And I had to just keep absolutely calm and collected and say, hmm, okay, right.
Thank you very much for that information.
I'll get back to you.
Some bullshit.
I didn't, there's no way I wanted the reporter to get a hint of what was going on.
And thankfully he didn't.
And as soon as I, once I got back to the hotel room, I think I screamed the blue murder.
Keeping Secrets During War 00:07:22
Yeah.
Well, coming up, the final part of my emotional interview with Thomas Hand and his daughter Emily.
Sunsensid next, live from New York City.
Welcome back to Uncensored Live from New York City.
Now in my final part of my interview with Thomas Hand and his nine-year-old daughter Emily, who was released by Hamas 50 days after being taken hostage on October the 7th.
The reality, Thomas, of what she'd been through was nowhere near as horrific as you had feared.
I don't want to speak for you, but my understanding is there was no sign that she had been beaten or abused in any way.
I think that's the case, right?
Yep, as far as terrorists go, they were reasonably good.
They didn't sexually abuse her like they've done with many others.
She wasn't raped even as a small child, which they have done to others.
She wasn't beaten, tortured.
They were all reasonably humane, shall we say.
They kept them on very small rations of food, even though they had lots of food.
In my head, I'm thinking, you know, she's not going to be getting lots of food because probably they won't have lots of food.
But she's told me that, no, they had lots of food, they could smell it being cooked, but they weren't given any.
One day they built, like they made a mountain of, like very small doughnuts, a mountain of them, and they each had, they were given one each.
No need for that.
Anyway.
She you found that her head was full of lice, for example, and she was pretty emaciated given how she had been before.
But what's the biggest problem that she faced and you faced psychological?
You know, I read that she believed she'd actually been taken for a year.
Oh yeah.
Well, you know the old saying, when you're having fun, time flies.
And I guess her two months felt like a year.
She wasn't enjoying it very much.
Yeah.
Most of the time the only activity that they could do was play cards and do drawing.
They had to be very, very quiet.
There was no conversations.
So that would get boring after a very short time.
They were threatened at one stage with a knife by one of the Hamas terrorists because they were making too much noise.
Yeah, they were probably just talking.
They weren't making much noise, but they were told to be quiet.
Yeah, be quiet or we'll kill you with this knife, is what she said to me.
How do you say, be quiet?
How do you say Tijebah Sheketb Arabi?
Uskut.
She's learned Arabic while she was away, so that's, you know, that's always a good thing, isn't it?
That's amazing.
Well, there were other tragedies for you.
Your ex-wife, Narcis, was killed on October the 7th and was the mother of your two other children.
And you had to explain that, I guess, to Emily when she came back.
She'd acted like another mother to her.
That must have been an incredibly difficult thing to do.
Yeah.
Yeah, when she was released and after all the hugs and celebrations together, we were put in a transport convoy, coming back to the hospital to get her treated for whatever injuries she might have and check her physically all over and mentally.
Anyway, so I said to her, Aidan and Natalie, my two oldest kids, and her grandmother, Mariana, are waiting in the hospital with our other dog, Schnitzel.
They're going to meet you when we get there.
And she's very smart.
She immediately went, what about Narquis?
So I was shocked.
I wasn't ready for that.
So I said, we don't know about Narquis yet.
Just anything to keep her away, because I wanted to get back to the hospital and speak to the psychiatrists first to ask, what am I supposed to do?
What should I say?
And I knew the answer already.
I've been there with her actual mother.
The best thing you can do is tell them the truth.
As hard and painful as it is to do for you and for them, that's what you've got to do.
So she asked two more times in the van going back to the hospital and I had to just keep her at bay.
Eventually we got back to the hospital.
They said yes, you just got to tell her.
So sat her down quietly and just told her straight and the only reaction she had at the time was a very sharp intake of breath.
She just went and that was it.
She didn't say a word.
Only the next night she sobbed herself to sleep.
But under the blankets on the bed, I cut her to duvet on the bed.
Obviously the first thing you want to do is comfort your child.
She wouldn't let me touch her.
She'd forgotten how to be comforted by a parent.
And that was very hard.
I just had to let her cry it out.
It's incredibly touching, Thomas, to watch the way Emily has been interacting with you throughout this interview.
And not least just then when she wiped away your tears.
She's an extraordinary young girl, isn't she?
She's tougher than all of us.
She really is tougher than all of us.
An Extraordinary Young Girl 00:04:14
I'm not bad.
I'm very emotional, right the way through it.
I've always been emotional.
I'm sorry about that.
But that's me.
But she's as tough as nails.
Thomas, how do you feel about how do you feel about the general situation now 100 days on from the appalling terror attacks that hit you and so many families?
How do you feel about the debate about the war itself, about Israel's response?
Some people feeling it's just become disproportionate because so many civilians have been killed.
What do you feel about that?
They don't know a thing.
You they're living it, okay?
We're living it.
We have been living it every day for 20 years.
You have no idea.
You have no right to even speak to me.
Have you been to Israel ever?
Any one of you saying it's disproportionate?
Has any one of you come to see apartheid in this country?
It doesn't exist, you idiots.
It doesn't exist.
Look at all the road signs.
Come, come and look at all the road signs.
It's in Hebrew.
It's in Arabic and it's in English.
All the buses, all the buses with the electronic writing have Hebrew, Arabic, and English.
Do you honestly think the country would go to that much trouble having all the road signs in all three languages?
If we were apartheid, you wouldn't do that.
You wouldn't waste your money for crying out loud.
Come to any hospital in this country.
Come to any school in this country.
Come to any city in this country.
You'll find Arabs, women, female Arabs, professors in hospitals, everywhere.
Doctors.
You're talking out of your bottoms.
You have no idea.
You have no idea.
And you're all chanting from the river to the sea.
You don't know what river.
You don't know your history.
You don't know your geography.
Because they're saying from the river to the sea.
Well, if you had any idea of geography, you could work out where this little country is and go, oh, it's the Mediterranean Sea.
But they don't know that.
Educated Harvard students, university students, I'm sorry, you can cut out that Harvard bit.
Educated Harvard, educated university students, and they don't even know what river or what sea borders Israel.
Yeah, they're probably very educated in their specific subject, but don't know anything else around it.
There are some people, many people actually, who want to try and downplay what happened on October the 7th, who think the stories have been exaggerated, that women weren't raped, that people weren't beheaded, that, you know, everything has been exaggerated.
What do you say to them?
What do I say to them?
It really doesn't matter what I say, does it?
It really doesn't matter what I say.
All the footage that you see of that day and days afterwards, that's Hamas body cams.
That's Hamas body cams.
They were streaming it.
Trump and the Future 00:12:25
They were proud of it.
If you could just ask her, how did she feel when she saw you and realized you were alive and you were there for her?
Happy.
Happy.
She says happy.
You know what?
That's all she needed to say.
And it's been...
And she smiled.
She says she was very happy and smiled.
Yeah.
An extraordinary interview with a remarkable man and his even more remarkable daughter.
Well, coming up, the first votes in the 2024 election are cast as Iowans picked their nominee for president.
Can anyone stop Donald Trump?
That's Uncensored Next, live from New York City.
Coming up on the Independent Republic of Mike Graham, Maggie Oliver is here.
She's going to be talking to us about the Rochdale grooming scandal.
Peter Hitchens is also here.
He's going to be telling us why we should not be looking at going to war in the Middle East.
Plus, we're talking to Yvonne Tracy, the ex-Postmistress, who's going to unseat Sir Ed Davey at the next election.
You don't want to miss it.
This is the Independent Republic of Mike Graham.
Welcome back to Uncensored, live from New York City as the race for the White House officially gets underway.
Well, voters across the Midwestern state of Iowa will this evening brave very, very cold temperatures, maybe the coldest ever for an Iowa caucus to select their Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, is expected to cross the field with potentially as much as 50% of the vote, which would be an all-time record.
But can he be stopped?
And are the polls wrong?
Joining me now in the studio, former Conservative MP Louise Mensch and journalist Emily Austin, and political strategist and pollster Frank Lance is in Iowa.
Before we go to Frank, who's probably freezing to slow extinction over there in Iowa, let's come just quickly to Emily and Louise.
Just get a reaction to that interview with Thomas Hand with his daughter there.
I was struck by how she wanted to be there with him.
She never stopped stroking his face, particularly when he cried or got angry.
Really powerful.
There are some fates worse than death.
And what you saw there was a father looking down the barrel at what could have happened to his little girl.
And I think when people forget what actually happened, what kicked off this entire war, they're forgetting that these terrorists took a little girl hostage and put her father through that.
And she was one of the lucky ones.
Horrible to say.
But some 13-year-old girls didn't fare as well as that poor little child.
There's still a baby missing now.
We've no idea really what's happened to that baby or countless other people.
Emily, what did you make of it?
I just remember grieving along with most of the world when we thought Emily was dead and then celebrating when we found out she's alive but still don't really know her fate.
And to watch, like you just said, watching her comfort her dad when she's the one who went through the trauma as well as he just shows you the resilience of kids.
And like, it's sad to say she's too young to remember, but we were discussing in the green room, this is something that's going to haunt her for life.
You know, I sent him a text just now saying, getting an amazing reaction to that interview, Thomas.
And I said, you are an extraordinary man.
And he replied, I am not.
I'm just an ordinary person trying to deal with this like everybody else, which I thought was typically modest of him.
But actually, he's right.
You know, these were just ordinary people living in the kibbutz.
We didn't know who they were.
And now forever, they will be part of the history of this horror that's been unfurling.
Let me go to Frank.
Frank, let's segue into the election in Iowa, where it all kicks off for real.
I've got to say, as a Brit from across the pond, it always seems a bit weird, your system, that so much seems to hinge on Iowa and the strange way they do this.
Sell it to me.
Well, I'm not going to sell it to you.
I actually want to hearken back to that interview.
I've had the chance to listen to the last 10 minutes of it, and it makes me angry at the politicians over here in America tearing each other apart over nothing, insulting each other, being rude and abusive.
That surely when we see these crises that are happening in other parts of the globe, why we must behave like idiots and how bad it makes America look.
So no, I don't want to sell Iowa.
I do want to say that Iowa voters are more sophisticated than average.
They take the responsibilities very seriously.
They do care about the outcome.
Donald Trump is likely to get about half the vote.
The big question is who comes in second because that individual gets bragging rights for the state that really matters, New Hampshire.
Piers, Iowa makes a statement.
New Hampshire makes a difference.
And it's just a shame that the statement is being made in weather that's 15 degrees below zero.
That presumably will help Trump simply because if you look at all the polling, yes, Nikki Haley's got a bit of momentum and replaced DeSantis into second place.
But if you get into the weeds of the data, the sort of very positive enthusiasm for candidates, Trump roaring ahead at nearly 90%, DeSantis second, Nikki Haley pretty low on enthusiasm.
If actually it comes down to who's going to get out of their warm, comfortable home and go and vote in these conditions, you've got to think it helps Trump and may actually help DeSantis a bit.
Well, I think it might hurt Trump because his vote is pretty old.
And if you're over 75, going out in this weather is actually dangerous for you.
And I think it hurts the vague Ramaswamy because even though he hasn't been talked about as much, his vote is 18 to 29 year olds and they're less likely to vote.
In the end, Trump is going to win big.
Whether he crosses that 50% threshold, we don't know.
The votes have to be counted.
But also in the end, it's amazing to me that Donald Trump in most surveys is leading Joe Biden, even though Trump has been indicted 91 times, even though he's been thrown off at two ballots, even though the campaign against him has been so vicious because he himself has turned himself into a victim, into someone who's not prosecuted, but persecuted.
And right now, you have to give Trump the narrow advantage in November, despite the primaries and caucuses and all this chaos that's around American politics.
Yeah, it's quite extraordinary.
It's unprecedented.
Emily, I want to play a little clip.
This is a Donald Trump last night trying to get his vote out and making a typical Trump remark.
You can't sit home if you're sick as a dog.
No, look, we're all laughing, right?
And that's the reaction.
I watched my old CNN colleagues trying to be serious about this and couldn't help themselves but laughing.
This Emily is his Trump card, literally, is that he is funnier than the other candidates.
And as we've seen with Boris Johnson in the UK, who became prime minister, if you've got a sense of humor and you don't talk and behave like other politicians, you can go a long way and you can make a comeback like Trump.
Yeah, I mean, being 22 years old and Gen Z's epitome, I grew up in a Trump election.
2016 was the first election I can recall Trump won that.
2020, Trump participated, lost.
But being Gen Z, I grew up watching Trump.
And to me, it was always just, yes, he says it as he pleases and he doesn't really think twice before speaking, which is a blessing and a curse.
You get the transparency, but you also sometimes need a filter, especially on a global stage.
And I think it comes down to a balance, the famous quote, to be loved or to be feared.
Now, internationally, you have to be feared, otherwise you risk being taken advantage of and being a vulnerable country, which America is very vulnerable right now.
But at the same time, you risk Trump winning might, you know, even prompt a civil war within America, which nobody benefits from, of course.
Louise, the other great advantage Trump has, and why we may be seeing this extraordinary comeback, is that Biden looks so weak.
Record low approval ratings again this week, and they're already terrible.
A lot of Democrats, two-thirds of them, don't think he should run again.
But he is.
And if he does, you've got to think Trump has a great chance.
I don't think Trump has a great chance.
Honestly, I don't think polls this far out for the general election mean very much.
We've seen it over and over again.
That said, Joe Biden should not make Hillary Clinton's mistake and start being complacent.
In 2020, Joe Biden won because he wasn't Trump.
Time for a change is the most effective slogan in politics all the time forever.
Now, it's time for a change from Biden.
So he's got to be careful.
He's got to be cautious.
The Democrats, the White House will be looking at the results of this caucus with great interest, very great interest.
It's the race for second place.
Only Nikki Haley has really managed expectations.
She said that New Hampshire is her big state.
If she manages to outperform, she could get a bit of a momentum just in case the Supreme Court throws a monkey wrench into Donald Trump's.
All right, Frank Luntz, no one knows about polling better than you.
What are the possible scenarios here?
Could we see one, maybe two candidates dropping out by the time Iowa's come out in the wash?
Absolutely.
Ron DeSantis cannot justify continuing after spending more than $100 million and most of that here in Iowa.
If he comes in third, I can't imagine him going beyond tomorrow.
And then you also have to look at Vivek Ramaswamy, who's self-funding his campaign.
Does he get over 10% of the vote, which indicates that there's still some rationale for his campaign?
And then you have Asa Hutchinson, who most Brits will never heard of because most Americans have never heard of him.
He's a former governor, successful governor at that.
And no one, he's getting zero point, or I should say not 0.7% of the vote.
Once again, I agree with your colleague that you don't trust the polling this early in the campaign, but make no mistake, it's going to be more negative than it's ever been.
It's going to be more personal, more vicious, and more Americans are going to say to hell with American politics and American elections as the months continue.
Okay, prediction time.
What's going to happen here, Emily?
I politely disagree with you because I don't think Biden's given Americans enough of an incentive to vote for him again.
No, I don't.
If Biden wins, it's purely out of the way.
I think if it's Biden, Trump, Trump wins.
Me too.
I think Trump's.
And I wouldn't have said that a year ago, but you've got to say, the guy's resilience.
I will say with Trump, he has the thinnest skin of any human being I've met in my life.
He reacts to everything, right?
But he has the thickest.
He can soak up stuff that would crush any other politician.
And Louise, you've been a politician.
If you've got that thick skin like Trump and you can swat away all the buzzards and the flies, you've got a great chance.
People like, always like, a political candidate who just speaks his mind and doesn't give a damn.
I know you're not a big fan of Boris Johnson, but he had that quality.
Trump has that quality.
He was obviously joking when he said, you know, go out and die for me to vote.
The fact is, I think that Biden will beat Trump quite handily, but I think Trump is the only candidate that Biden could beat.
Let's go quickly back to Frank before he literally freezes to death in front of us.
Frank, if it's Biden-Trump, can you see a way Biden wins?
Well, I want to separate Donald Trump from Boris Johnson.
Boris has written more books than Donald Trump has read.
I believe that the election is way too, that the election is way too close to call, that either candidate can win.
If you forced me to bet on it now, I would bet that Donald Trump would come out slightly ahead because his voters are passionate.
Yeah, they are.
Frank Luntz, great to see you and thank you for braving the elements.
Thank you to Louise and to Emily.
Lovely to see you both again.
That's it for me.
What are you up to?
Keep it uncensored.
Night.
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