Pierre Polyev’s hypothetical April 28th election win sparks debate as Donald Trump demands Canada join the U.S. as its 51st state, exploiting anti-Trudeau sentiment while Polyev supporters ignore Mark Carney’s lack of electoral experience. AI-generated fake images—like one falsely linking Carney to Jeffrey Epstein—circulate unchecked, undermining shared reality. Pro-U.S. sympathies lurk beneath defenses of Trump’s tariffs, especially among oilfield workers nostalgic for Alberta’s past annexation push. Shelby forces a reckoning: would Polyev backers support him if he rejected U.S. pressure and championed Canadian sovereignty, or would they blame Canada’s independence itself? The episode frames this as a litmus test for national identity beyond partisan distractions. [Automatically generated summary]
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Hypothetical question.
What will happen if Pierre Polyev wins the upcoming Canadian federal election with majority, and then Trump demands that Canada become the 51st state?
A year ago, this would have been wildly unlikely scenario.
That's no longer true.
I'm hearing a lot of people angry about Trudeau and wanting Polyev to win the election.
As though Trudeau still matters somehow.
As though the Canadian electorate should carry the anti-Trudeau torch into the future.
Making your political movement about opposition to a guy that doesn't matter is weak and futile.
I'm seeing people cheer about Mark Kearney, mostly because they don't want Pierre Polyev.
Carney is less known.
About the smartest thing I've heard anyone say about Kearney so far is TBD.
To be determined.
Cautious approach.
Anytime I hear someone being overly optimistic about any politician, I get nervous about their objectivity.
There's a reason to doubt and criticize everyone.
And if you can't find it, then you're not looking for it.
But I'm also seeing people repost fake images, likely AI generated, of Mark Carney in unseemly situations because they want to discredit him in any way they feel fits the biases of the current moment.
There's one image of Carney in a swimming pool with none other than Jeffrey Epstein that's been shown to be fake, and yet Polyev fans will repost it without a second thought.
Some don't even care that it's fake.
Tell me how we ever get to a shared reality when some of us don't even care that the arguments that they use are fake.
I'm seeing people defend the tariffs that Trump placed on Canada as a just and righteous thing for Trump to have done.
So now I have to ask the question.
Trudeau was extremely unpopular, and rightfully so.
The man had several closets full of skeletons from poorly handled scandals, and he shouldn't have made it this far.
His prime ministership should have ended at SNC Lavalin.
It took longer for him to leave office.
Okay, but he's gone now.
No longer the prime minister.
Mark Carney is the PM now, and there's going to be a new election, April 28th.
A little over a month ago, two things happened nearly simultaneously that greatly affected Canadian polls.
Trudeau announced that he'd step down.
And then Trump began rattling the saber about tariffs and directly linking those tariffs to the idea of Canada joining the U.S. as the 51st state.
These two things have collectively led to a sudden and drastic change in the polling figures that indicate what the next election in Canada might look like.
If the election had happened in early January, Pierre Polyev would have been prime minister with a solid majority.
Now, not so much.
But it's not like it's definitely going the other way either.
Mark Carney has run banks before, but never nations.
He isn't a member of parliament, and really should be in order to run the country.
He's never won any seat in any election at any level.
Now, I'm going to dive deeper into the current trend of electing political outsiders in a future episode, but suffice it to say that it's a real thing.
Still, Kearney is at least a little untested and hasn't been expected to give a constant stream of answers the way other politicians have.
So we'll see how that goes.
TBD.
Getting back to the hypothetical question at hand, as I said, I'm seeing a lot of discourse about this.
People are attempting to metagame situations to justify other people supporting their side.
But there's a little something missing from some people's statements, and that's the part we need to talk about.
I get a very bad feeling when I hear a Canadian voice speak warmly of Trump and his tariffs.
It makes me think there's something more happening that they're not saying.
And I want them to say it.
I want them to be honest about what they're feeling.
Why don't they want to be honest about their goals?
What are they hiding from the rest of us?
If you want to be part of the U.S., now is your time.
There is never going to be a more opportune time to talk about it than right now.
Why aren't you singing it to the world?
Why aren't there journalists asking Danielle Smith about this right now?
Over the past eight years, as I've sat in the winch cabs of dimly lit wireline trucks and listened to barely informed oilfield workers discuss politics, I've heard a large number say out loud that they would love it if Alberta joined the U.S.
But I'm not hearing from them right now.
Come on.
You're not the kind of people who would keep this to yourselves.
You're not snowflakes.
You're not weak people who hide what they really want.
You're big, strong men who don't hide their political opinions.
Now that the U.S. President has openly declared his desire for Canada to join the U.S., tell us what you really want.
Do you want to be part of the U.S.?
Or do you not actually want that now that it's a real possibility?
Was all that just bluster?
Like the noisy guy at the bar who declines to step outside when he steps over the line and gets too mouthy?
Are you, now, that mouthy guy at the bar who's had too much to drink and is now facing the sobering possibility that there might be consequences for running your mouths?
I want to find out.
I think everyone else should also want to find out.
Ask your neighbors.
Ask your old high school friends on Facebook.
And don't be happy with some mealy-mouthed answer that dodges a question or some deflection about how bad Trudeau was.
It's a simple yes or no question.
Do you want Canada to join the U.S.?
If you support a Pierre Polyev prime ministership, would you be doing so in order to get Canada one step closer to joining the US?
And if you don't like the things the liberals have done to push back against Trump tariffs, then tell us what you would want Polyev to do if he were the one leading the country.
Are you complaining about the tough liberal rhetoric here because you've met a game this in your head and you're worried that letting the liberals step up against Trump will cause Polyev to lose?
If Polyev made those same decisions as Prime Minister, would you support him?
Or would you also say that he was wrong to do those same things?
Do you super secretly wish that Canada was part of the US?
Is that what you really want?
And if so, and you're being demure about it, are you a coward?
Are you as false and as calculating as all those politicians that you claim to hate?
If Polyev gets to be Prime Minister and Trump demands that we join the US, and then Polyev refuses him and asks Canadians to throw their support to the Canadian economy by buying Canadian goods, would you be behind that?
Also, if you would support buying Canadian goods, are you supporting it now?
In the bigger world of economics as political hatchet, are you sharpening Trump's blade?
Or are you sharpening the one that will eventually be held by the Canadian Prime Minister, whoever that may be?
And if it's Carney that wins on April 28th, will you help to keep Canada sovereign?
Or will you then claim that every new problem Canada faces would magically vanish if only we had heard the call and joined the U.S. already?
This issue will be the biggest question in the minds of people for this election and probably for the rest of Trump's presidency.
And guess what?
Now that it's been voiced, other U.S. politicians might even persist with the idea after Trump is gone.
This could become an idea that defines a generation, not just a single political cycle.
So pick a side already.
Speak your mind.
Choosing to not say what you really feel is no better than all that political correctness you claim to hate.
Don't be a hypocrite.
Say plainly whether or not you want Canada to be part of the US.
And then, ask your friends and family and co-workers the same question and make them state it plainly.
If anyone is waffling, know why they're doing so and align with them with your eyes open.