Biden CHALLENGES TRUMP To Debate, Trump ACCEPTS, Biden LOSING With Independents Has Dems In PANIC
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Biden CHALLENGES TRUMP To Debate, Trump ACCEPTS, Biden LOSING With Independents Has Dems In PANIC
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You don't want to miss it.
Now, let's get into the news.
Joe Biden has issued a direct challenge to Donald Trump anytime, anywhere, bucko.
Name the date.
That's right, Joe Biden says he wants to debate Donald Trump.
Donald Trump called him, I don't know, he probably called him a cuck or something.
Hey, whatever.
Welcome to the internet.
Joe Biden thinks he's going to win a debate with Donald Trump.
It's silly, but I'm glad it's happening.
And we got some data.
On where we're currently at in this country and why I think Joe Biden wants to do the debate.
It's actually really simple, ladies and gentlemen.
Joe Biden is losing miserably to Donald Trump right now.
The polls show it.
The big news.
The big news here.
I don't care that Joe Biden wants to debate Trump.
I guess fine.
But the big news is that among independents, the voters that matter most Joe Biden is deeply unfavorable and Trump, while still unfavorable among the independent voters, is beating Joe Biden by roughly 10 points.
It's massive.
This is the voter bloc that Trump needs to win.
The only reason Biden has come out of the shadows saying he'll do the debate is because they are desperate And they know that it's probably the end of the Biden administration come November.
But he did issue a statement posted to X, and I'd like to read it for you first.
We'll grab some news from CNN.
Before we get started, my friends, head over to TimCast.com, click join us, support our work, become a member.
Your membership helps sustain this operation we have here.
CNN says President Joe Biden is offering a new salvo in the debate on presidential debates.
Wow.
Calling on former President Trump to pick the dates.
At the same time, Biden's campaign sent a letter to the Commission on Presidential Debates that the president would not be participating in the committee's announced debate dates, and instead plans to participate in showdowns hosted by news organizations.
In the letter, the campaign proposed dates in June and September.
Donald Trump lost two debates to me in 2020.
Well, we'll play the video.
Make my day, pal.
Oh boy.
14 seconds.
And let's pull this up from old.
Look at it.
He looks... You know, I'm sorry.
I just want to say this real quick.
When he tries to look...
Like, firm and tough?
He just looks like he... I hate to say this, but he looks like he pooped his pants.
So he does that scowl with the furled brow, like, you know, Donald Trump says he wants to debate me, but he's going to jail.
And I'm just like, you know, guys.
You know what I was watching?
I was watching The Equalizer the other night, Denzel Washington, and I never saw it before, and it was great.
I thoroughly enjoyed it.
And then I watched The Equalizer 2, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.
And the reason why I bring this up is because Denzel Washington, his character is tough, dangerous, he's like a former secret agent, and he's killing the bad guys, and he doesn't make a face like this.
I don't know, not that I think it matters or whatever, but like, The idea of how to depict a tough guy is the straight-faced, tough, you want to debate me, Donald Trump?
I'll have a debate with you.
And I think afterwards you'll come to regret it.
But pick the dates.
Instead, he's doing this fake tough guy thing because I think they're trying to increase the ham levels, you know, ham it up.
Not that, to be completely honest, I think Donald Trump's response is eliciting fear or intimidating of Joe Biden either, but Trump is at least very funny.
He's a funny guy.
Trump-truthed.
Crooked Joe Biden is the worst debater I have ever faced.
He can't put two sentences together.
Crooked is also the worst.
He's calling him crooked now.
He's also the worst president in the history of the United States.
By far.
It's time for a debate so that he can explain to the American people his highly destructive open border policy, new and ridiculous EV mandates, the allowance of crushing inflation, high taxes, and his really weak foreign policy, which is allowing the world to catch on fire.
I am ready and willing to debate Crooked Joe at the two proposed times in June and September.
I would strongly recommend more than two debates, and for excitement purposes, I love how he says these things, a very large venue, although Biden is supposedly afraid of crowds.
That's only because he doesn't get them.
Just tell me when.
I'll be there.
Let's get ready to rumble.
To be fair, A much better statement than Joe Biden's.
I mean, Trump is actually calling out significant voter issues.
Now, the question, my friends, of course, is where do we currently stand in the election?
And as I'm pulling up the polling data and doing the research, that's right, the journalism, to understand where we currently are, it is hard to know for sure, but there is some interesting data to break down.
2024 general election, Trump v. Biden.
Donald Trump is currently up in aggregate by 1.1 points in the RCP polling average, which is pretty good.
In 2020, Trump was behind, and we were hoping that with him being, you know, with Joe Biden leading in the polls, there was going to be a significant margin of error that we saw in 2016.
Maybe, maybe not.
I think Republicans, pollsters, did not account for ballot harvesting and universal mail-in voting.
But here we currently are.
There are a few polls showing Joe Biden ahead.
We've got INI-TIPP with Biden up 2.
ABC has Biden up 1.
And then we have NPR-PBS-Marist with Biden up 2.
Basically, every other poll shows Trump winning handily.
There is Morning Consult with him up by one point, and that's 10,000 registered voters.
That's a massive sample size.
And then you've got CNN with only about a thousand.
He's up six.
That seems weighted.
Don't fall for it.
This is what I'm talking about.
CNN does a poll, and they're like, wow, Trump is winning by six.
And it will lull you into a false sense of security.
But my friends, What do you think is the number one issue in this country?
Holy crap.
I can't believe I'm saying this because I like to play that Carville line, you know.
It's the economy, stupid.
Donald Trump is up 40 points when polled.
Who do you trust more to fix the economy?
Donald Trump up 40 points on Joe Biden.
It's insane. 40!
Yeah, ain't nobody think Biden's gonna fix the economy, but guess what, my friends?
I hate to break it to you, the economy is not the top issue.
Now, general economic issues, in aggregate, do surpass basically everything else.
But when we're talking about You know what?
I'm just going to show you.
From Gallup.
Take a look at this.
I want to build the suspense here.
The most important problem.
It's a Gallup poll where they ask people what's the most important problem.
And first, let's talk about how they frame it right now.
Percentage of Americans mentioning economic issues as the nation's most important problem.
36% in 2024.
Now that's massive and that is still very good for Trump because bad economy means bad for the incumbent.
Check this out.
We're inching our way there, just wait.
What do you think is the most important problem facing your country today?
Economy in general is 17%.
High cost of living and inflation is 13%.
Federal deficit is 3%.
Unemployment jobs, 2%.
And they say, when we add it all together, the economy makes up 36%.
Nah, that's not fair.
The economy in general is only 17%.
Number one, immigration.
Immigration is the number one issue among voters right now, and Joe Biden ain't gonna be winning on that.
Joe Biden has opened the southern border to an invasion, is doing nothing about it, is lying about it, pretending like he's trying to do something about it, sending hundreds of billions of dollars overseas to places like Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and in Ukraine, corrupt government officials are giving away the money for fortifications to fake companies that didn't exist a month ago, Hey, it's Kimberly Fletcher here from Moms 4 America with some very exciting news.
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We can break down immigration into a bunch of different issues and then add it all up and claim the same thing.
But I think it's fair to say there's a reasonable argument that you could say the economy, if you put all these issues together, is the number one issue because it is usually the economy, stupid, right?
But to see immigration get named over economy, take a look at this.
Poverty, hunger, and homelessness Well, that's economic, too, isn't it?
Right?
My point, ultimately, is this.
All of these issues are tied to the economy.
So, if we're actually talking about what do people care about right now, the idea of economy in general means nothing to me.
What does that mean?
If you're saying immigration, it's like, well, immigration's an economic issue.
It's displacing low-skill workers.
It's costing us taxpayer money.
Yeah.
So you have what it really comes down to.
What component of our country are you truly mad about?
High cost of living and inflation is a direct impact on regular people and it's only at 13%.
Immigration, 27.
percent. Immigration, 27. Non-economic problems add up to 74 percent. So I think it's fair to say.
Economic problems, 36.
Non-economic problems, 74.
Non-economic problems are bigger issues overall.
And the number one issue, immigration.
Yo.
It's absolutely wild.
Now, I'll tell you this, my friends.
I don't know how Joe Biden wins.
Donald Trump's gonna go on stage and say, these people, these cartels, they're down in Mexico, and they're animals, I'm telling you!
And Joe Biden's gonna be like, no, they're not bad, no!
Come on!
Trump's gonna be like, how many more people have to die?
Lake and Riley?
Big story.
And we're letting criminals into this country.
And Trump is not wrong.
You see, these countries where the people are coming from, when Trump says they're not sending their best, he's right!
Do you think that a wealthy or middle-class person in these countries has decided to upend their lives and move to the United States?
Typically no.
Some yes, but typically no.
Wealthy people would just buy a plane ticket.
They're not going to cross illegally to the southern border.
They're going to get an H-1B visa.
They're going to do an investment visa.
A lot of foreigners with money, they'll file to start a business in the United States, which you're allowed to do as a non-citizen.
Then that company can I don't know the exact mechanism by which they do this, but they start a company, and then as the principal owner with a certain amount of money, they can then get themselves a visa and come here.
That's how the rich people do it.
They fly in legally.
Legally.
The people that are crossing the southern border?
Yeah, many of them are just economic migrants.
But many of them are criminals, people who have been recently let out of prison.
In Venezuela, it's been reported that many of the people fleeing the country are criminals who don't want to go back to prison.
So they're coming to the United States instead.
Immigration is that issue.
It's funny because I'm pro-immigration.
I'm 100% for it.
I think that immigration is fantastic.
I think it's great for the economy.
All these good things.
But there's a caveat with that.
It's only if the immigration is controlled.
You can't just open your southern border, let anyone in, and then be like, this is great.
They got a bunch of smart people making cool stuff.
And then we go to them and say, we'll pay you more.
And they go, I'm going to America.
It's fantastic.
What I don't like is when we, when companies do this to hire someone from India at a slightly lower rate than an American displacing an American job.
What I am saying is if we don't have, the idea is supposed to be that if there's high skill labor, we can't get anywhere else.
We can bring them to the United States.
Stealing their highest functioning individuals.
I think it's fantastic.
Take a look at this from the Center for Immigration Studies.
The foreign-born population grew by 5.1 million in the last two years.
The largest two-year increase ever reported.
How does Joe Biden debate that?
What's Joe Biden gonna do?
He got nothing.
Now, I'll tell you real quick, we brought this up in the past couple of days, why they're doing it.
NPR reporting that Social Security is going to fall short by 2033, so this is why Joe Biden's doing it.
Joe Biden's going to come out and say, the money that we take from you to fund elderly, it's running out, so we're importing non-citizens, hoping that they can do the labor that will pay for the older people.
Talk about sacrificing the young to save the old.
Let's jump into the polls, ladies and gentlemen.
Here we go!
How would you rate the condition of the national economy right now?
Currently, as of May 14th, very bad.
40% very bad.
Let's do a net trend line.
Minus 26% net good.
This is May 14th.
Very bad.
40% very bad.
Let's do a net trend line.
Minus 20%, 26% net good.
So you've got fairly bad, very bad, and yeah.
When the economy is bad, incumbents don't do so well.
And you know, old podcasters like me are looking at ad rates going down.
Harumph!
Now that that's the biggest deal in the world, big shows like this, we do okay.
But, uh, it could affect everybody.
For us, Tim Guest has no risk of going out of business, especially because you guys as members keep us afloat, and it's absolutely fantastic.
We can track economic factors, though.
We get emails from people saying, you know, I'm a big fan, I've watched every single episode, we're falling on hard times, we gotta pinch every penny, I'll be back when I can, and we're like, do your thing, man.
Your family comes first, well before we do.
Alright, here we go.
Republicans say, The economy is getting worse, 90%.
And you know what's remarkable?
Uh, duh!
How is this reality?
You look at the news and it's like, people don't have money.
Inflation is still up quarter over quarter.
Businesses are shutting down.
That's reality.
Yeah.
Reality has a Republican bias, I guess.
Independent voters.
64% say it's getting worse.
Democrats don't want to admit it.
They don't want to admit it.
How concerned are you about the impact of inflation having on consumer goods?
67% say very concerned.
Now, this is a specialty poll.
It's actually a lot.
We're locked out from it.
And then, here's the good one.
Y'all ready for this?
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden?
Hey guys, Josh Hammer here, the host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer, a podcast for the First Podcast Network.
Look, there are a lot of shows out there that are explaining the political news cycle, what's happening on the Hill, the this, the that.
There are no other shows that are cutting straight to the point when it comes to the unprecedented lawfare debilitating and affecting the 2024 presidential election.
We do all of that every single day right here on America on Trial with Josh Hammer.
Subscribe and download your episodes wherever you get your podcasts.
In politics of today, do you consider yourself independent?
Blah blah blah.
43% of US adults identified as independents.
27% as Republicans, 27% as Democrats.
Alright.
Let's do this.
Political Party... Oh, you know what?
We don't even need to do that.
They're even.
Total Votes Cast 2020.
Let's play this game.
Cook Political Report.
How many votes do we have?
Let's go... We had a total...
What were the total votes?
If I'm spitballing here, it looks like 155 million.
But let me just make sure I have the actual... I think we can get the total vote counts.
I think it's 155 million.
Trump with 74.
Biden to...
Ah, no, okay, right.
See, that's why you check.
Because of independent voters.
Third-party voters.
So it looks like it's actually going to hit around 156.2 million.
Now, roughly half of those, 75 million, are independent voters.
And so if we're looking at 40% of them voting for Donald Trump, then That gives him a major swing.
I mean, we can just break down the math rather simply.
He's looking at a 10% advantage, so he's looking at an extra 5 million vote swing.
I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, we got a hundred, am I, I'm probably getting the math wrong.
Let's, let's, let's try this again.
So you had 155 million votes split between Biden and Trump based off those numbers alone.
We want to cut that in half because we're looking at just the independent voters.
So we're going to say roughly 74 million.
So we're looking at Of those votes, right now, Trump has a 10% advantage.
It's not really good math because being up 10% on Joe Biden doesn't mean a whole lot, but that means if we just break it down and say that independents split evenly between the two parties, I don't know that they do, we're looking at a... Now, I want to point out to you, let me check the percentage.
No, I think it correlates.
I think we're looking at a massive swing.
I think we're looking at the loosest math imaginable, but with a 10-point swing among independent voters, Trump is well, well past Joe Biden.
I mean, that is apocalyptic for Joe Biden.
I'll need to actually sit down and break down the math in a more meaningful way, to be fair.
But a 10-point advantage among independents confers a massive advantage.
So, they say that 27%, this is Gallup, are Republican, 27% are Democrats.
Okay, well we expect both of those to go full swing for their parties.
And it's 43% that are independents, so it's not quite half.
But that could mean, what, 5 million extra votes for Trump if I'm just doing super loose math?
Biden loses 5, Trump gains 5.
Trump wins.
That's a 10 million vote swing.
Trump wins.
Don't know for sure.
And I would recommend you don't sit back and rest on your laurels.
You need to go out, you need to be active, you need to advocate to friends and family.
Share videos like this on your social media.
And then we wait.
I look to Scott Pressler, shout out the hard work he's doing in registering people to vote, but it's going to be absolutely fascinating to say the very least what happens.
Polling data is all wrong and everything I'm bringing up may be meaningless, but I can tell you this.
There's a reason Joe Biden's finally decided to debate and why he's making it seem like Trump didn't want to in the first place.
It's because he knows he's losing.
Next segment is coming up at 1 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out and I'll see you all then.
Following the news that Joe Biden had offered to debate Donald Trump, Trump accepted and now Joe Biden has accepted.
They've both agreed to a June 27th debate on CNN.
But here's the fun part, my friends.
You know, it looks like they crafted the rules to make sure RFK Jr.
cannot be on the debate stage, which I find hilarious.
They put the polling threshold just slightly above where RFK is, so he won't qualify.
But Joe Biden has some insane demands.
No audience.
Mics are cut off after the allotted time.
It seems like this is all being set up For Joe Biden, but of course you knew that.
I think Donald Trump being so confident that he's going to win this debate and destroy Joe Biden, he's willing to agree to these terms.
A debate with CNN, in my opinion, is Oh, it's funny, I called it a debate with CNN, because that's what's happening.
Donald Trump will be debating CNN and Joe Biden.
Joe Biden's going to say nonsense, and they're going to cut off Trump's mic.
There's going to be no audience, so you won't see any reaction, but to be completely honest, I don't know that I'm totally opposed to that.
The idea that you don't have people hooting and hollering, it's probably a good thing.
But I love how they're icing out RFK Jr.
He's issued a statement, he's quite upset, so we'll talk about that, but then I will do a deeper dive analysis.
My friends, as we're tracking all this election news, the 2024 race is heating up, the debates are on.
I went to our good friend Chet GPT, and I gotta say, I am deeply impressed.
There's a lot of data to calculate that I normally actually do.
So, when dealing with polling data and voter data, I'll give you an example.
There was a... I can't believe I actually did this.
There was a story a while ago about sentiment for civil war.
Ah!
There it is, I said it.
And they said that these regions... Here's the favorability between Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.
But we didn't get a national level, we didn't get a state-by-state level.
We saw that in like the Midwest region, it was like 30% or whatever.
So I actually went through each state, Broke down party affiliation.
How many people are in those parties?
And then created an... I actually just pulled up a spreadsheet.
I went through all the math.
Here's the crazy thing.
That took me a little while to do.
All 50 states.
Voter registration breakdown.
Tracking the sentiment based on these numbers to see what the... to extrapolate data to a national level.
And now, with ChatGPT, I can literally just say, list for me all the political party breakdown by state.
It does.
Then I say, list for me the polling data by state.
It does.
And then, we can basically use this to almost instantaneously do a comparative analysis to 2020 and 2024.
And I've got some interesting results.
Chet GPT, the first result it gives me when I did an overly simplified breakdown was a tie!
It said, it assumed a 269 electoral college vote to 269 tie, in which the House, which is Republican, and the Senate, which is Democrat, would make it a Trump-Harris ticket.
Because if you get a tie, The Presidency is chosen by the House, Vice Presidency by the Senate, and I think that's absurd, and a lot of people do as well, but that was their analysis.
I did a deeper analysis, and it really is rather quick.
ChatGPT with this is amazing.
It pulls up the data in real time, you can check the numbers, super quick, and it gave me a general breakdown saying Donald Trump was slightly favored to win based on current polling projections.
So what we'll do is, We'll go through this.
I'll talk to you about the current debate news, the rules of the debate, RFK's stance, and then I want to show you the... I'm going to, in real time, go through ChatGPT and see if we can do a polling breakdown based on real polling and see what we get from this.
Should be pretty interesting.
But here's the news from the Washington Post.
Biden and Trump agree to CNN debate in June!
Another face-off in September.
Now, Donald Trump actually says, I want four debates.
June, July, August, and September.
Joe Biden does not have the wherewithal to handle such a thing, so that's likely not going to happen.
The Post reports, President Biden and Trump agreed on Wednesday to a June 27th debate on CNN, hours after Biden announced he would bypass the decades-old tradition of three fall meetings organized by the Bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates.
Sure.
After Biden publicly embraced a CNN proposal in a social media post, a Trump advisor who was not authorized to speak publicly said the presumptive Republican nominee would accept that event.
CNN also announced plans for the event.
I am ready and willing to debate Crooked Joe at the two proposed times in June and September, Trump wrote in an earlier email Wednesday on Truth Social.
I would strongly recommend more than two debates, and for excitement purposes, a very large venue, although Biden is supposedly afraid of crowds.
And then we had Hannah Clare, who's co-host on the show, and I said, do you want to record an ad as well?
It took her two, because she was like, what was it again?
OK, yeah, two takes.
No jump cuts.
We're just done.
How is Joe Biden supposed to debate Donald Trump if he can't talk for 14 seconds without screwing up?
OK, look, I don't know who likes Joe Biden.
I really don't.
Here's the announcement.
Shelby Talcott says press release from CNN confirms the upcoming debate will be at their Atlanta studio with no audience, plus additional details on how to qualify.
CNN will host an election debate between President Joe Biden and Trump June 27th at 9 p.m.
Eastern from the crucial battleground state of Georgia.
Should be fun.
Of course, we will have our commentary on that.
The debate will be held in CNN's Atlanta studios to ensure candidates may maximize the time allotted in the debate.
No audience will be present.
Moderators for the debate and additional details will be announced at a later date.
And here's the best part.
Icing out RFK Jr.
I don't mean that literally.
I wouldn't mind an RFK Jr.
being on the stage.
To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article 2, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States, file a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.
A candidate's name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline.
I agree that there should be a standard as to if you're going to be invited to these debates.
in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN standards for reporting.
I agree that there should be a standard as to if you're if you're going to be invited to these
debates. We set up debates here on we have the Culture War Show Friday mornings at Tenet Media
and we like to set up debates.
Now, the threshold we have for debates is relatively low, but it still exists.
There have been many people who have hit us up and said, I'd like to debate this.
And our response is, with all due respect, do you have a career?
Right?
The issue is not, are you famous?
The issue is, what is your career, your position on the issue?
Do you have a track record for it?
There are a lot of people who are like, well, I don't actually work in, you know, insert field, but I've been focused heavily on it.
And it's like, okay, our standards are really low.
If a debate sounds good and the person has a portfolio showing that they're capable of conversation on the issue, we accept it.
But we even get sometimes people being like, I want to debate.
You know, I've been doing this thing for 10 years.
And it's like, do you have any portfolio, resume, anything showing that you've done these shows before?
Because we have invited people on shows, and this is why we have a standard, and they freeze up and they don't talk.
And they're like, I don't know how to do this.
And it's like, okay, look.
We're not saying you gotta be famous to come on these things, you know, come on these debates.
You have to be able to debate.
That's like a minimum standard for us.
I think it's fair to say, dude, if you can't win the presidency, why are you on the debate stage?
RFK Jr., my understanding, is not on enough states.
He's got a handful of states where his name will appear on the ballot, but not enough.
He's not polling at 15%, and he's pissed.
They say polls that meet CNN editorial standards and will be considered qualifying polls include those sponsored by CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox News, Marquette, Monmouth, NBC, New York Times, NPR, Quinnipiac, Walsh Eternal.
I mean, that's a wide range.
Okay, okay.
RFK Jr., where we at?
We got all these polls posted by 538.
3% from YouGov.
Yes, they don't count.
Then we've got 11% RMG.
Doesn't count.
Big Village, 9%, doesn't count.
Three Big Village ones, none of them count.
YouGov, doesn't count.
Sorry, here's TIPP Insights.
12% doesn't count.
And none of these break the threshold anyway.
USA Today, are they on the list?
Come on, you gotta accept USA Today.
Include those sponsors.
Include.
So, I assume they would accept USA Today, but he doesn't reach that number.
He's getting 12%.
Look, in aggregate, Kennedy's got 10%.
I mean, good for him.
Good for him.
I'm glad that there is someone who is challenging.
I like independence, but yeah, I just don't see it.
Now, we got a statement here.
RFK Jr.
says, debate exclusion undermines democracy.
He issued a statement saying President Trump and Biden are colluding to lock America into a head-to-head matchup that 70% say they do not want.
They're trying to exclude me from their debate because they are afraid I would win.
Keeping viable candidates off the debate stage undermines democracy.
43% of Americans identify as independents.
If Americans are ever going to escape the hammer lock of the two-party system, now is the time to do it.
These are the two most unpopular candidates in living memory.
By excluding me from the stage, Presidents Biden and Trump seek to avoid discussion of their eight years of mutual failure, including deficits, wars, lockdowns, chronic disease, and inflation.
Well, sorry to hear it, man.
Look, if you're not going to be on the sufficient number of ballots, why are you debating?
Even if RFK Jr.
won the debate, he can't win the presidency unless it's like a write-in campaign?
I suppose it's possible.
Charlie Kirk says, Biden is trying to make it look like he's not afraid to debate Trump.
He knows he needs to make some waves to top his recent slide, so why the cowardly terms?
He wants a TV studio with no live audience.
Has to be CNN, ABC, CBS, or Telemundo.
Mics cut off when time is up.
And asks for two, not three debates.
Classic Biden move.
Act like a tough guy, but then totally wuss out when you look at a deeper level.
Perhaps, perhaps.
Now, Guy Benson has the statement from Trump's team.
Trump's team saying we accept Biden's suggested two debates, but we raise him two more!
Plus a VP debate.
Yeah, it's not gonna happen.
I'm wondering who Trump's VP is gonna be, by the way.
Trump's team says, Today's a good day for America's voters, now that Joe Biden has finally accepted President Trump's debate challenge.
President Trump and our campaign have been requesting this for months with a consistent message.
Anytime, anywhere, anyplace.
President Trump has already accepted the CNN debate invitation for June 27th.
He has also accepted your proposal for a debate in September, but we believe there should be more than two opportunities for the American people to hear more from the candidates themselves.
With the soaring inflation of Bidenomics costing America's hard-working families the grocery store and the gas pump, with our border being totally overrun, with chaos at home, chaos across the world, chaos on our college campuses, we should have one debate per month.
Therefore we propose a debate in June, July, August, and September in addition to the vice presidential debate.
Additional dates will allow voters to have maximum exposure to the records and future visions of each candidate.
Heaven help the Democrats if Trump picks Vivek Ramaswamy for VP and he debates Kamala Harris.
It would be like watching Mike Tyson box a five-year-old.
Now, Donald Trump debating Joe Biden is also like Mike Tyson boxing a five-year-old.
But, you know, I don't know.
Maybe Mike Tyson—he's older, right?
And he's going to be—was he boxing Logan?
Or is it Jake?
I think Logan Paul or Jake Paul.
I don't know.
One of them.
I think it's Logan.
I'm a fan of Logan Paul.
I think he's fantastic.
I've heard him talk about his work ethic and his strategy in business.
I'm a fan of the guy.
I love the hard work.
It's a weird fight.
He's a young guy up against the best, but an older guy.
So, you know, we'll see.
That being said, they are probably much younger fighters.
So, Sean Strickland fighting a five-year-old.
That's how we, you know, come on.
Yeah, it's going to be absolutely brutal.
But RFK Jr., of course, is upset.
He's basically getting iced out from this, and if they do have more polls, he's not going to get in.
Now, we've got a few more minutes, and so I want to take the opportunity, because I don't think this warrants a full segment, but Chet GPT, actually, this is really, really fantastic.
So, here's what I want to do.
In real time, I'm going to use ChatGPT, which now has access to all this modern data, to break down the electoral college and voting by states, and then plug in the current approval ratings, favorability, etc., and I'll do it right here, you'll see me do it, and we'll see what it says.
It's going to give us wild projections, who knows what it'll say, but we'll start with this.
The first thing we need is a breakdown, so give me a breakdown of all states Um, all states votes by party affiliation in the 2020 presidential race.
Okay, give me a breakdown of all states votes by party.
And, uh, it's kind of wild.
ChatGPT now calculates, and it's, uh, it's breaking on the percentages.
Okay, well, okay, that's, that's a fine place to start.
58%.
Look, this is absolutely amazing that we can do this in real time.
Arizona went 49.4% for Biden, 49.1% for Trump.
It shows you all of the states.
And Republican Party won states.
Let's see, we got, you know, Florida's there.
He won that pretty easily.
Split electoral votes, Nebraska and Maine.
And Joe Biden won the electoral with 306 electoral votes, while Trump had 232.
The breakdown shows the division by states by party affiliation.
Alright, so let's do this.
I'll say, now give me the vote totals of each state by party.
That's really what I wanted in the first place.
Alright, here we go.
Look at this.
It actually can produce the hard numbers for each state.
50 states.
I actually compiled this by hand when I was doing a polling calculation because they didn't do a national level poll.
Not by hand, but like, I went to each state, pulled the numbers, load them to an Excel spreadsheet, load up the Excel spreadsheets, broke down party affiliation of all the red states, all the blue states.
We can do that in two seconds right now, and we're getting these hard numbers.
So, uh, the main reason I'm pulling this up, and I think, there we go, it gave us all the states.
Now, here's the interesting part.
I'm now going to ask ChatGPT, okay, give me the total votes of only independent voters For each state.
By party affiliation.
So now only the independents.
So we're gonna oversimplify.
So how Chet GPT is handling this is it says, okay, it's giving me percentages again.
That's silly.
They say the 2020 electoral data does not typically provide a direct breakdown of votes by independent voters for each state by party affiliation, as the final tally is usually an aggregate of all votes.
However, we can look at estimates and exit poll data to get an idea of how independent voters leaned in each state.
These estimates are generally based on polling data rather than actual vote counts.
So the math here is relatively loose.
But we can see how independent voters voted in each state.
In Illinois, for instance, Biden won 56% of independent voters.
This is an estimate based on exit polling data extrapolated and then applied to the total vote numbers.
So let's play this game.
They say these percentages represent the estimated share of the independent vote that each candidate received in each state.
To convert these percentages to vote totals, you would multiply the total number of votes.
Okay, so I can just tell it to do this.
Okay, so now give me the the total vote number
uh... for independent voters in each state by party uh... i'm sorry by candidate we don't want to say
party by candidate and uh... let's see if it can give me the total vote
numbers for independent voters in each state by candidate
so now it's gonna do is going to make an estimate based on those percentages
so they say that independent voters are typically around thirty to forty percent
It's about 43 percent.
It's doing all the hard math.
Take a look at this.
And now it's breaking down every single state.
I don't even need to read everything.
This is really cool.
I'm a big fan of ChatGPT for this reason.
I mean, this is pretty impressive.
Rough math.
Rough math.
I want to clarify.
We take a look at Colorado.
Total votes, 3.1 million.
Estimated independent votes, 1.04 million.
Meaning Biden got around 575,000 independent voters.
Trump got around 407,000 independent votes.
Trump got around 407,000 independent votes.
You can look at Georgia, where Biden got 847,000 votes from independents to Trump's 700,000.
And let's see if we can go with like an obvious...
What about, let's go to Florida and see what the Florida number is before we make our final
projections.
So in Florida, among independents, it's estimated that Trump got 1.77 million to Biden's 1.73 million, which is particularly interesting.
That's based on the total vote breakdown and, oh wow, it actually had to stop!
So much data is being crunched here.
All right.
Now, if you listen to my earlier segment, we looked at the current civics.com favorability of Biden and Trump.
Biden's favorability among independents is currently 29 percent, and Donald Trump's is 39 percent.
So, let's do this.
They say these estimates This is absolutely amazing how much data is being crunched.
The bigger challenge, too, is that, as RFK Jr.
and assumed percentage of independent voters, 33%, and the approximate percentages of those independent voters
who supported each candidate.
Keep in mind these numbers are approximations and may not be exact.
The bigger challenge too is that, as RFK Jr. pointed out, 43% of people say they're independent right now,
although the number can vary.
Let's go by Gallup's latest numbers and the number given by RFK.
So what I will say is, generate the same list, assuming 43% of voters are independent.
That's going to be important because that's the current data.
So now we're taking the presumed data from 2020 and retrofitting these numbers based on a 43% independent number.
And we're really putting chat GPT to work here.
Now, ultimate goal here, for those that are listening, is to use all of the data, plug in today's data four years later, and see what the projection would be based on current polls.
It's not exact science.
It's estimation.
Meaning, we have exit polls from 2020, we have the hard data from each state, we have party affiliation data, so we can make a general determination about how many people are independent.
2024, the current number, as RFK pointed out, and as I believe it's Gallup points out, 43% of people say they are independent, which is fascinating.
So we'll want to calculate the total votes by state based on a 43% independent vote number if we want to have these numbers make sense as we plug in the final calculation for 2024 and see who Chet GPT thinks will win.
While I'm pattering and talking, it's actually calculating all of these states, and I have to then click Continue Generating to get the number.
This is absolutely fascinating.
And keep in mind, whatever you think about the 2020 election with ballot harvesting, we can plug that in, too, and that will be the final thing that I do.
Alright, so it finishes with Wyoming, and now here's the best part.
Okay, here's what I'm going to say.
I'm going to tell our good friend Chet GPT.
In 2020, I'll say as of today, has Trump with 39% favorability among independent voters.
Amund, I spelled that wrong.
And we'll do this.
And Biden has 29%.
These are numbers that I pulled from civics.com from my earlier segment.
So, I will not say, assuming these percentages Correlate.
Total votes by state, um, based on—based, uh, let's see.
Assuming these percentages correlate directly with votes, calculate the total votes by state for 2024.
I want to make sure I have this right.
Talking and typing this and forming the calculation is, uh, I'm tripping up.
Current polling as of today has Trump with 39% favorability among independent voters and Biden has 29.
Assuming these percentages correlate directly with votes, calculate the total votes by state using these numbers.
And that should work, right?
To get a projection for 2024 vote totals.
Bang!
Isn't it really cool that you can just, uh, analyzing?
Oh, I think I- I hope I didn't break it, because that would totally suck.
As I mentioned already, um, I did do this, but I wanted to do it in real time in- on- on this, uh, uh, uh, in this segment.
It basically said...
Uh, Trump had like 272 or just slightly above.
There was, oh here we go, here we go, we got it!
That one took a long time.
Based on current polling with Trump at 39% favorability and Biden at 29% among independent voters and assuming 43% of voters are independent, here are the projected total votes for independent voters in each state by candidate in the 2024 election.
So this is not considering the actual polls right now showing that Trump is actually ahead in swing states in general.
All we're trying to do is see if the shift in the independent voter count gives us a different outcome.
If Trump held a 10-point favorability advantage in 2020, would he have won?
I don't know.
I think I might have broken it.
View analysis.
All right, now we'll do this.
Based on these vote totals, give us the electoral count breakdown for 2024.
That's how we do science these days.
Based on independent vote totals and assuming these percentages correlate directly with total votes, well, it's giving me every single state.
You didn't need to do that, GPT, I just wanted the total, but we'll scroll down.
It's giving it to you by state.
We don't need it by state.
But this is fun nonetheless.
Alright, so it's currently calculating every state total electoral votes that will be going to Trump or Biden, and based on this shift in favorability, let's see where we end up.
Trump's winning a lot of states here.
Isn't science fun?
And do we... Okay, this is ridiculous.
It says Trump wins every single state.
No, no, no, no.
See, you see ChatGPT?
No, no.
You get it wrong.
Okay, let's try this again.
ChatGPT can only go so far.
No, that's wrong.
Using this data on... So okay, I see, I see, I see.
Here's what he accidentally calculated.
What this actually produced was based only on independent voters.
Now add all Democrats and Republicans to the independent count, and based on the vote totals, Give me only the total and final national electoral vote count.
Hopefully that works.
You gotta be very specific with this thing.
Alright, let's see what we get.
To predict the final electoral vote count for the 2024 election, we need to consider the total votes, including both independent voters and party-affiliated voters, and determine the winner of each state based on projected totals.
Here's the fascinating thing.
Based on the shift in favorability among independents, I don't think we needed a calculator to determine that Trump would have won literally every single state among independents, because he has a 10% advantage among independents.
What we need to do is now add in all of the Democrat and Republican votes to that number—this is amazing—plugging it all in, and it's totally wrong.
Thanks for sitting here as ChatGPT was unable to do it.
Let me just try one simple calculation.
So the numbers it gave us up until this point were good, and then it's—okay, well, actually, it says this projection suggests a landslide victory for Trump based on the assumption that the current independent favorability directly influences the total vote count and that party-affiliated voter numbers remain constant from 2020.
Well, there you have it, ladies and gentlemen.
They're saying that Trump's going to win 446.
That's actually its calculation.
No joke.
Using the independent vote percentage of 40—so this is what—here's what I think changed.
When I first did the calculation, I actually let it roll with a 33% number.
But I believe Gallup currently says that it's 43%.
That's why RFK said 43%.
And so we said, make it 43%.
We then asked it to plug in Republican votes, independent votes at 39%, independent votes at 29% for Biden, Trump, etc.
And it generated, if favorability holds and directly correlates among independent voters, Trump wins in a landslide.
I don't think that's a fair assessment.
I think it's a little bit wild.
But, uh, far be it from me to challenge ChetGPT.
I'm gonna do this.
I'm gonna say, forget all of this and let's try one more time.
Let's start fresh and focus, uh... Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
No, that's not what I want.
Wow!
That's actually really amazing.
Okay.
Let's start over.
Take the total votes by party affiliation, Democrat, Republican, Independent, from 2020,
and project for 2024 the total
I said amund.
vote count, assuming Trump has 39% favorability among independents and Biden has 29%.
What is it?
I said amund.
You can actually put typos in it.
It doesn't seem to care.
OK, here's what I said.
Let's start over.
Take the total votes of party affiliation, Democrat, Republican, Independent from 2020 and project for 2024 the total electoral, I'm going to put total national because it's going to give me by state, electoral vote count, assuming Trump has 39% favorability among Independents and Biden has 29, and this correlates directly with voting.
Bang!
Okay.
Here we go.
If you made it this far, I hope you're having fun.
Let's start over and calculate the projected 2024 national electoral vote count based on the following assumptions.
And look at all this math that it's doing.
It's really fun.
It's kind of wild that we can do this.
This is absolutely insane.
So, independent voters, 43%.
That's the number that RFK is giving, and that's the number that I got from Gallup.
The remaining votes will go to other candidates or remain unchanged from 2024 simplicity.
And, uh, look at this math that it's giving us.
Absolutely fascinating.
Look at this table.
The vote totals.
Calculation total.
This is absolutely incredible that it's pulling all this data.
And, uh, these vote totals are actually really simple and readily available on the internet.
And so all it's doing is pulling it really quickly, whereas I would have to Google search each one.
This is why AI can be actually pretty fun.
Now it's plugging in all of the vote totals.
Look at this calculation table.
It's generating code, too.
Wild stuff, wild stuff.
Alright, we're gonna wrap up this segment in a second, but...
Assuming that 43%, let's see if this simplified calculation gives us the Trump landslide projection again.
And then I know that we're going to get all, look, we're six months out, a lot of things can change, favorability can change, you know, so we'll see.
But the favorability I found to be absolutely wild when I pulled up the civics data.
Final electoral vote count.
See, this is much more reasonable.
This projection suggests that Trump would win the 2024 presidential election with 291 electoral votes while Biden would secure 247 electoral votes.
This is based on the assumption that the independent vote favorability directly correlates with voting behavior and that other factors remain consistent with the 2020 election.
This one seems to make a bit more sense.
Final result, 10 minutes of typing things in a GPT-4-0, and it looks reasonable.
Not a crazy landslide.
Lighter margins than Trump's victory in 2016.
Lighter margins than Biden's victory in 2020, but Trump still takes it.
And I think that seems to make sense.
I'm not going to do a deeper analysis.
This is just a basic overview of saying, if independent voters currently favor Trump, what would the numbers look like in 2024 relative to 2020?
What we're missing?
New voters, older voters dying, and shifts in the electorate over the past four years.
I'm gonna wrap it up there.
Hope this was fun.
Next segment is coming up at 4 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and we'll see you all then.
Generation Z, you're getting screwed.
And you don't need me to tell you that, because you feel it every single day.
And if you're a millennial, and you know someone who's Gen Z, ask them about it.
Because I don't think they need you to tell them it.
We got this from qz.com. Gen Z is making less money than millennials did 10 years ago, study says.
14% of Gen Z respondents said they were extremely stressed out about their financial situation
compared with 8% of millennials a decade ago. As of the fourth quarter of 2023,
Gen Z's age 22 to 24 were making an average of 45k a year.
At that same age ten years ago, adjusted for inflation, Millennials were making $51,825 according to a recent study by TransUnion.
And the debt-to-income ratio is four points higher for Gen Z than Millennials.
Coming in at 16.05%, compared with 11.76% the Credit Bureau found.
They're going to give us a bunch of other numbers, but I'm not super concerned about the hard numbers.
I think we know that the younger generations are getting squeezed.
We have this story.
Man on three times the minimum wage says he can't afford to live.
The American Dream is dead.
Well, I got news for you, Nicholas Sumners.
Your video went viral, it got 11 million views, but the American Dream is not dead.
It certainly is not.
But, there are older people that are destroying your inheritance from this nation, and they're giving it away to non-citizens.
That's probably the principal issue right here.
Why is it?
That you're struggling to make money and pay rent?
Well, unfortunately, there are 5.1 million new foreign-born individuals in this country as of the last two years, the largest number ever according to the Center for Immigration Studies, and these people are getting benefits.
Not every single one of them, but a large portion of them are receiving free money.
That is, your labor, your parents' labor, my labor, being extracted from the system through this modern monetary theory and given to non-citizens who just showed up as incentive to show up so they can integrate to the bare minimum degree and be given places to live and start to work.
They're giving work permits, displacing low-skill jobs, so young people will struggle to find work, and that's probably why immigration is the number one issue among voters.
Despite the fact that you could say if you add up all the economic issues, it, you know, becomes the biggest issue.
I covered that this morning.
I want to play this video for you, but it is an old video that's now resurfacing because, well, people just keep sharing it, and I want you to hear what this young gentleman has to say.
Let's see if we can get it tackled.
unidentified
Can somebody explain to me in crayon eating terms why I make over three times the federal minimum wage and I cannot afford to live?
And I do not want to hear the pull yourself up from your bootstraps, work 90 hours a week.
That's not the goal, guys!
That's not!
That should not be our standard!
I'm so I am so fucking tired of people being complacent with this uniparty, both of them fucking us over.
When my parents were my age, they both made less than half of what I make, and they lived alone.
I cannot afford to live anywhere alone.
A one-bedroom apartment, $1,800.
Two-bedroom apartment, $2,200.
Who the fuck can afford that?
It is embarrassing to come out and say that it is a struggle to survive right now.
But I know so many people are struggling.
And do not get me started on what my grandparents were doing.
They, $3,000 house.
And yes, I understand inflation and all of the bullshit that they have been pulling with the Fed.
Why are we allowing it?
Why?
And then I clock out of my shift.
I am tired.
I have to go home.
And I check the news.
Another 60 fucking billion to a country nobody can point out on a map.
And the evidence is the millions of people flooding this country and taking from you.
This guy gets some things wrong.
He gets a lot right.
He's completely right.
Why are we sending another $60 billion to a country nobody can point to on a map?
Story of my life, story of your life, Afghanistan, Iraq, I mean, why?
What's the point?
No, I get it.
Petrodollar.
I want to give a shoutout to my good friend, however, and just let him know that you can rent an entire house in West Virginia for, I'm looking at $800.
$800 apartments and houses.
$800 apartments and houses.
$800 in West Virginia.
I mean, you know, if you want like a full townhouse, it's three bedroom, it's $2,000.
So I get it.
It's still pretty expensive.
But you can find some cheap places.
These are actually really nice places that I'm looking at.
I just pulled up the rent map on Craigslist.
And I think this is a sad reality.
The system is completely broken.
I've known it.
Many of you know it.
I don't think that the American Dream is dead, however.
I think people don't understand what the American Dream is.
Seriously.
But I do want to point out One of my favorite memes and it's a guy saying the bank says I can't afford $1,200 for a mortgage.
Guess I'll pay $2,000 for rent.
Been there.
You've been there?
I've been there.
I'm just, I'm absolutely confused.
I remember when I was moving out of New York, I was looking for, looking to buy, and I had just, I had recently left a job, and I was paying $2,100 a month, and I said, did all the math and the calculations, had the money for the down payment, and I was like, You know, I could actually easily afford a mortgage.
It would be cheaper.
All the banks were like, nah.
And I'm like, well, how does this not... I don't understand.
I've got a bunch of money in my savings.
I can make a 20% down payment.
Based on the current interest rates, it would cost me like $2,070 per month.
I'm paying $2,100 per month right now.
And what do you mean I can't afford the loan like now?
And I'm like, That system is broken, dude.
We need to figure out how dudes like this can buy instead of renting, but the system is completely broken.
The reason why I say the American Dream is not dead is that the American Dream, it is a mistake to believe the American Dream was that you would work 40 hours a week, own a house with white picket fences, dude.
I can tell you this.
The American dream of the suburban home with white picket fences and the traditional family with a stay-at-home mom and 2.5 kids?
Sure.
I don't think most young people would view that as the American dream, though, which you could argue is.
Not necessarily.
I've met people who come to this country.
I have family members.
Ancestors, I should probably say, I mean like, you know, older family members from way back when, as most people do, who immigrated to this country.
The American dream was no conflict, no fighting, free from war, you know?
You could leave your war-torn country where you worked every waking moment of your life, and you could work here, safe and secure, and you made more money.
The American dream was that you'd move here from China or Ireland or wherever.
You'd work 80 hours a week, but you'd have your own place, you'd call no man mister, your kids would have a better life.
That was the American dream.
I see so many immigrants come to this country, and they live in a one bedroom with their whole family, and the dad works non-stop, works finger to the bones, because he's like, the dream is that we are safe, that we can make money, and my kids have opportunity for a better future.
But at some point, the American dream to so many young people became, I don't want to work that much and I should get paid enough to buy and own my own home and everything like this.
I'll tell you what, man.
I suppose you can argue that the elements of the American Dream are dead.
I don't think it's true, though.
I think America is still a land of opportunity, and that's why so many people want to come here.
But I gotta tell you, my friend, if you like the idea of a single-family income, having a kid, having a wife, and all that stuff, well, the reality is this.
A large factor in why the economy is the way it is is because of dual-income households.
Once women entered the workplace, instant competition, there it goes.
It's a fact.
I'm not saying women shouldn't work.
It's up to them.
I'm just saying, you accept the realities of your circumstances.
Back in the day, a guy goes to work.
He goes to a job and he says, look, I'm, you know, out of the military or whatever, because, like, World War II and stuff, and here are my skills.
Here's what I can do.
And they say, we can pay you, you know, $8,000 a year or whatever, or whatever it was.
It was probably less than that.
It was probably like $5,000, some low number.
And inflation and all that.
And then he's like, look man, you know, I got a wife and kids.
That's not gonna cut it.
And the guy who runs the business says, well, we can't afford it.
And he goes, we're gonna have to find somebody else.
And he leaves.
The guy who runs the business is like, man, nobody wants to take a job at this number.
We're gonna have to increase the number.
So they do.
This amount of money was enough for a guy who took the job to feed his family and pay for his house.
To do the work that had to be done.
There was less disposable income.
You weren't flying around the world.
You weren't buying cell phones.
You didn't buy video games.
You didn't have a new car, a new bike.
You didn't have a new gadget, new gizmo, no toys.
People didn't have TVs.
Didn't have cell phones.
Most of your income was just going to your family.
But, society functioned that way.
So, you didn't need these things.
Women enter the workforce in mass.
Around the end of the 70s is when the big boom starts happening.
And something interesting happens.
guy goes to apply for a job and he says, you know, I need a job and he says we can pay you, you know,
$20,000 a year, whatever the number was in the 80s, I don't know.
$20,000 I think. I don't know what the median income was.
Probably not $20,000.
That's probably like decently high back then.
And the guy says, well look, I got a family.
That's not going to cut it.
And the guy says, OK.
Sorry, didn't work out.
Have a nice day.
And so the guy gets up to leave to go find another job.
The next guy walks in, sits down, and says, you know, I need a job.
And he goes, you know, insert whatever the median wage is.
And the guy says, well, I got a family.
It's not going to cut it.
And the employer says, that's fine.
Don't care.
Have a nice day.
You know why?
Eventually, a guy walks in and says, I need a job.
And he goes, 20K.
And the guy goes, works for me.
My wife has a job.
Dual income, that'll cut it.
He goes, man, I was hoping to make more than that so my wife could stop working, but you know, a job's a job and I gotta take it.
So, he's like, sorry, I can't offer you more, but you know, your wife's working.
And this is where we ended up.
Women have had jobs going back a long time, right?
They've worked.
But with the ubiquity of women in the workplace, you now have low skill, you have a massive increase in the supply of workers.
Now you have a guy showing up for work saying he needs money for his family and they say, tell your wife to get a job.
And that's it.
Now the husband and the wife are both working full-time and they're like, why are we struggling?
Because the depression in the market.
I don't mean like an economic depression, I mean this depresses wages, restricts competition because you're competing with literally everybody now.
And now we live in a world where a young person's like, what is going on?
My grandparents bought a home and lived alone and Right.
There's a lot of factors to include.
You have...
Older people are living longer.
Social Security extraction.
You have endless need for war, which is extracting buying power.
You've got illegal immigration, extracting buying power and displacing you from the labor market.
You now have depressed wages due to hyper competition.
People can't live on single-person income because of this depression in the market, and it's a cultural crisis.
That's just straight up it.
I don't have any good answers for you, but I can tell you this.
I think you're going to see more and more young people shift towards conservatism.
Especially young men.
They're going to vote Republican.
They're going to want traditional wives.
You got that video yesterday that went viral.
A crazy viral video.
Where the woman is like, I told the guy, you know, I wouldn't sleep with him.
And then when we came back to his place, He just, like, cuddled me, and I'm like, are you effing gay?
Like, what?
Now I feel ugly!
Guys are gonna see that.
Young men, Gen Z guys.
And they are going to scream.
Not because of the woman.
Because of all of it.
Because of all of it.
You can't have a family.
You can't be a provider.
You've got this woman where if he doesn't make a move, which she asked for, she goes online and calls him gay, insults him.
If he tried to make a move, she'd go online and call him a rapist and say, I can't believe guys are like this.
There's no winning.
Guys are going to get frustrated.
They're going to withdraw from the dating market, which they're already doing.
They're going to go hikikomori, play video games all day and just isolate themselves.
And they're going to wither away.
And for the first time in billions of years, they will not reproduce.
That's right.
Your lifeline, the genetic lineage of you that goes back all the way to the dawn of life, since the beginning of life on this planet, every life form before you has successfully reproduced to create you.
And if you do not, that's the end of your line.
Some people don't care.
That's fine.
You don't have to.
I think that's particularly scary if you think about it.
All of the survival, desperation to reproduce that came before you, a billion years, billions of years, and you would sacrifice all of that?
What a responsibility you have.
But these guys are living in this world where they can't afford anything.
These young men.
Here's what I worry about.
The older generation is going to keep voting in their interests.
If you came out as a candidate and said, Social Security's got to go, because young people are getting ripped off for it, guess what?
Young people aren't going to be mobilized to vote, and old people won't vote for you.
This is the pressure system that we exist in.
So long as voting is allowed by anyone, those who don't work are favored in voting.
The math is all there.
Some people say, I can't vote because I'm busy at work.
Okay, well the unemployed and the people who are the trust fund kids, they can all vote.
They can absolutely waste their time all day and then walk outside, sit around and vote.
The pressure then is on those who have jobs and are paying the bills, but are less likely to vote because the people who don't have jobs and don't pay the bills and get the benefits are receiving the money.
This is the extraction of the system that cannot continue.
I don't have an answer for you.
All I can tell you is that we'll probably push more and more, as the system begins to break down, into an energized and angry youth base.
Mostly guys, and this is why they're swinging conservative.
Young women, for social reasons, are swinging progressive and woke, but that won't matter.
I hate to break it to young women, and the feminists are going to screech about this one, if not they already have.
Men don't have the same biological clock as women.
They say that 35 is a geriatric pregnancy.
Google it.
And they're saying, well we're updating that now.
Yeah.
Right.
Just like body positivity says if you're obese, you know, you're actually healthy at every size.
It is considered geriatric pregnancy if a woman is 35 or older and has a baby.
And they can.
But there's only so much time left.
So, for women who are playing this progressive game and want to have families, this freezing your eggs stuff is a major risk.
That story of the woman on the cover of that magazine, she's like, I froze my eggs, girl boss!
And then a few years later, when they thawed out her eggs, they were all inviolable, shattered, worthless.
And she said she screamed like a wild animal, realizing she will never be a mother.
Billions of years of reproduction ending with you.
I feel bad.
Someone lied to you.
My projection?
These young guys, because of the system, are going to move to the right.
Trump supporting MAGA, America First, anti-immigration, borders, all that stuff.
Frustrated.
They're going to want traditional families, white picket fences.
They're going to want jobs where they can support a family, have kids, and have a good wife.
And these young women?
Many of them that are being pushed into the left by social media, many of them will stay there, and they'll be happy with their lives.
They'll have multiple partners, they'll have cats, and they will feel good.
And they're allowed to.
And I'm fine with that.
I got no beef.
You live how you want to live.
But there will be many who are going to start thinking, I only have a few years left.
I'm 30.
I need to find a good guy.
Unfortunately for them, many of them are going to realize that the majority of guys their age are Trump supporters.
They're MAGA.
They're America First.
They're going to go on dates.
The guy's going to sit down, and he's going to say, so really cool, what do you do?
You're a graphic designer.
Oh, cool.
You got any stuff?
Oh, that's really, really great.
She's going to be like, yeah.
She'll be like, well, I'm really hoping to start a family, and that's what I'm, you know, meaning, like, that's why I'm hoping we're dating.
And the guy's going to be like, cool, cool.
And the guy's going to be like, Well, I'm looking for a wife who wants to be a stay-at-home mom and raise the kids, and she's gonna be like, okay, well, like, I have a job, and then, okay, well, then it's gonna go one step, one step, two step, three step, and she's gonna be like, I'm a progressive, my pronouns are she, her, and the guy's gonna be like...
I'm not interested.
It was nice meeting with you.
And she's gonna go, why?
And he's gonna say, look lady, I got all the time in the world.
I'm not gonna settle for someone who's got weird views that led to the destruction that we are trying to fix.
And she's gonna say, oh no.
A lot of women are gonna say, screw off, I don't care, that's fine, they're allowed to.
It could be the majority, it could be the plurality, whatever.
What I'm saying is many of these women Who are just going along with the social cues of Instagram and TikTok are going to find themselves in a position where most of the guys are going to say, I'm not interested in someone who's pushing these policies.
If I have a kid with you, are you going to run him, get him, get him, get his balls chopped off?
Not taking the risk!
Listen, the guy's gonna be like, I'm 30.
I could reasonably have a kid till I'm 50, 60, 70.
I mean, you look at Trump.
Trump was what?
60-something?
He had a kid?
A lot of older guys have kids.
I don't need to settle down.
I need to do what's right for my family.
Thank you and have a nice day.
And the woman can't say the same.
She's gonna say, I have no choice.
So she can lie, try to cover up how she really feels about things, or I think the social pressures there will result in many of these women who do want to have families just saying, I do not care about politics, whatever.
I just want to have a family with a guy who can support me.
I think that shift will force and course-correct young women towards the right.
I could be wrong, but we'll see.
In the meantime, Gen Z is eating... let's just say crap.
They're getting roasted alive in this economy.
And I don't know how much longer the system can bear it.
But I suppose, if not this election, then 2028.
Young people right now entering the vote.
It's amazing.
It's been four years since 2020.
That means 17-year-olds who did not vote are now 21.
There's probably a bunch of 20, there was probably some 22 year olds who didn't vote in 2020, didn't care.
Now they're 26.
And they're thinking, what happened?
Yeah, why are we doing this?
To this dude who's got this viral video that keeps popping up, 11 million views?
You don't want our money going overseas?
Why are you complaining about both parties?
Republicans suck because they're weak and impotent.
But the Republicans, well to be fair, I'll give it to them.
The Uniparty establishment.
There's only a small handful of Republicans.
But you want to vote America first.
People like Matt Gaetz.
That's your option.
A lot of these Republicans are trash anyway, but you're right about that.
Best of luck, good sir.
All I can say is don't vote for Joe Biden.
Next segment's coming up at 6 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I'll see you all then.
This story dropped a couple of days ago, but we never got into it, and I think it's massive.
Because I get a lot of people, they say, Tim, I'm sick of the bad news.
It's always so bad.
And, you know, I had this impassioned plea yesterday on Timcast IRL about how you shouldn't feel despair.
And if you do, time for a course correction, buddy.
And I'll break this down, because this is what the bigger picture is.
Yo, there's good news happening all the time.
We're winning.
Target ditches Pride Month merchandise after last year's backlash.
Company refuses to say how many stores will no longer sell LGBTQ items.
It's market correction.
I don't care what you like or don't like.
The fact is, parents got mad that they walked into a store and their kids were exposed things they didn't want them exposed to.
So they said, I'm leaving.
Target was like, okay, we're not gonna do this anymore.
So you win.
Conservatives.
This is a major victory.
But the bigger picture here, it's not just about that Target is not going to sell items that you think are bad for your kids or whatever.
I certainly think when they put tuck-friendly bathing suits in Target, kids shouldn't be asking what that means.
I think that stuff is really bad for kids, and I think it's really bad for adults, too.
You want to go live your life, you do it, but some of this stuff should be specialty items.
There's a limit.
We have to be willing to say that we enforce our cultural standards and not just live in this pure libertarian world of anyone can do anything they want.
I think the balance is this.
In public, we say we have standards.
In private, your life.
You want to order this stuff, find a specialty store, find something online, but a target is a general place where children are and certain things should just be like, nah, we don't do that.
Like, imagine if they sold, I don't know, kink toys, whips and stuff.
We don't need that overly sexual stuff in these places.
It'd be a specialty item.
So we're winning there, right?
Here's the big picture.
The reason why I think we overlooked this one because there was a there was a decent amount of stories despite the fact that there was some news kind of slow but this one just didn't make the radar.
I hope you're happy with the good news.
I hope you're satisfied that the boycotts are working.
We're winning culturally and I want to say this to you.
Last night I was talking on Timcast IRL and I mentioned that You know, I met a guy, we were playing poker, and he says, I used to be, I'm a big fan, I used to watch every single episode, every single show, every clip.
And then I just, I had to stop.
Because it was just too much.
You know, it's like, this news is just, it weighs too much on me.
And I was like, yeah, okay, well, you know, sad to hear it.
And there are a lot of people who say things like that.
They're like, oh man, it's just the news is always so negative.
I'm like, well, news is negative.
You turn on the news not because you want to hear about a dog that sniffed a flower, You're trying to figure out what's going on in the world and how you need to adjust to better prepare yourself.
But here's what I would say to you.
If you feel like the news is negative and you don't want to watch or listen anymore, by all means, you know, go ahead.
I think the night is always darkest before the dawn, but we're winning.
I think there are bad things going on.
It's undeniable.
We're looking at inflation rates.
We're looking at, you know, Gen Z's not making as much money as the previous generations.
We're looking at kids who can't afford homes, who can't have families.
These are bad things, but it's happening.
Ignoring it doesn't change the fact.
So the people who are like, I just can't deal with it, I get it.
It might be hard for some people, so I don't ask you to go on the front lines if you can't handle it.
Maybe you want to just go home, turn in the game, order a slice of pizza.
That's fine.
Because there are brave men and women in uniform, civilly and in the military, who are willing to do the hard work so that you can.
And I mean that with all due respect.
Like, they want you to live that comfortable life.
They sacrifice that for you.
For the rest of us, who are not first responders, and who are just people who either complain on the internet or watch the news, this is a component of being vigilant and staying active and being prepared.
This is the front line of the culture war.
If you feel that despair, if you feel that this news is too negative for you, you need to think, flip it.
This is your calling.
This is your passion.
This is the fire within you.
This is your purpose.
There's good news every single day, but I'll put it this way.
Are you happy that Target is ditching Pride Month merchandise?
That kids are not going to be exposed to this stuff?
Do you know why that happened?
It's not because of police officers or soldiers.
It's not because of infantrymen and medics.
They're doing important work, the most important work.
Within the bubble that we live that they protect, we have cultural issues and that's our responsibility.
Right now I'm working on a song with Carter Banks and Phil Labonte.
It's called Coming Home.
And it's a riff and a verse that I wrote a while ago.
Carter and Phil helped finish the song out, otherwise it never would have come together.
And it's mostly coming together.
And the song is really simple.
It's about coming home to see what our cities have turned into.
And if we sit back and say, I don't want to think about this stuff.
I don't want to be involved.
The news is negative.
I just want to watch sports.
You're absolutely allowed to do that.
But understand, all that is required for evil to triumph is that good men do nothing.
And while the most important work, I think, is being done by men and women in uniform, things you don't even know are happening around the world.
And I'll say this too, to a great degree, many people in intelligence, we rag on a lot of these federal agencies and stuff too, but Because of the bad things and the corruption, but there's good stuff.
You know, look, when I see a story about the Feds taking down child predators, I'm happy they're doing that.
I wish that's what they were doing more of instead of this weird political garbage.
That's the problem.
How is it that Bud Light crumpled?
How is it that Target crumpled?
It's actually really simple.
You watched the news.
That's it.
That's all you had to do.
And then you were like, wow, let's not go to Target.
Let's go somewhere else.
And then you did.
That's it.
You woke up one day and your wife, your girlfriend, your mom, your brother, your sister said, can you pick up, uh, you know, some, a mop for me?
I need, I need, you know, and you're like, okay.
And you look up and you're like, here's a Target down the street, but I don't know.
I saw that Alex Stein video.
And so you decided to go to a different store.
That's it.
Target noticed.
They said, wow, after this PR wave, we lost money.
Let's not do this.
Now imagine, you said, I don't want to think about it, and you bowed out.
And you said, then Target would be like, double down, baby.
You know why?
Conservatives don't care, and liberals do.
That's it.
If you walk into a Target and say, I don't care that they have it on display, I just want to buy a mop, and liberals demand it, put it up there or else, Then the stores will do it.
The culture will shift.
Your video games will shift.
Your movies will shift.
Your media outlets will shift.
And one day you'll wake up and you'll say, what happened to my country?
You bowed out.
You couldn't handle it.
I don't blame you.
It's tough.
It's hard.
But for those of you that simply watched and paid attention and said, I need to be involved in what's happening in this world.
You made simple changes.
You downloaded the Public Square app.
Not a sponsored spot, by the way.
I'm just a big fan of Public Square.
We had Michael, the CEO, Michael Seifert on last night.
And you said, I'm not gonna go to Target.
Is there somewhere around me that sells, you know, hardware and stuff?
And then you found it.
A business that said, we support American values, the family, free speech.
And you were like, I'm gonna give them money instead.
That's all you did.
You didn't change anything.
You spent the same amount of money.
Just somewhere else.
Did you really care where you bought your mop from in the first place?
No.
But now, that money, it went to somebody running a business who actually cares about your values.
That's why it's important we pay attention.
Now, maybe I'm not saying you should watch every single... Look, I have people who say, like, Tim, I watch every single video you do.
I'm like, wow, man, I really appreciate that.
On average, though, I think for my channel, the average person individually watches 10.
Because I put out 16 per week, sometimes 20.
Since we moved to the new studio, there's been a lot of work to catch up on, so I haven't been doing the bonus Friday show.
The idea normally was that if I recorded an extra segment Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, I'd have four segments for Friday, and so I'd have one five days a week, but...
Now, with everything we're working on and it's ramping up, like, I hope in the next month or two to get back into, um, maybe in the next week or so.
For now, it's also been, like, we're entering the slow period in news, which is always springtime.
May is the worst.
Hence, segments like this, where it's more metaphysical, philosophical, moral.
Because it's more about who we are and what we can do and why we're doing it.
We get into winter and it's just you are inundated with all this stuff happening as people go back indoors and start engaging socially.
But now's the time.
I don't blame anybody for saying they don't want to be involved, but I just want to stress this as we see stories like this.
SCNR.com.
Target back down.
Because we just pay attention.
Because we make choices every day on where we shop.
We vote with our dollars and our feet.
And companies respond.
That's why I'm saying, a lot of the woke stuff, it's just because good men did nothing.
And they said, don't want to be involved, leave me out of it.
We can't do that.
That's a weakness.
What's your purpose?
Why are you here?
Why did... Why did you come to this earth?
Why were you born?
You have a mission.
Every generation does.
Some people just want to sit around.
They want to enjoy a nice pack of buffalo wings.
Maybe watch the game, play some poker with the boys.
It feels good.
But we are men of action.
We have purpose and we have responsibility.
And your purpose may be simple.
Have a family.
Get a job.
Work hard.
Be a good dad.
Be a good mom.
And pay attention to the world around you to make sure that evil does not penetrate your home, your neighborhood, your city, your county, your state, your country, your world.
And for many people it's actually really simple.
You just pay attention.
And act accordingly.
Become a member at TimCast.com.
How about that?
Support people like Steven Crowder, Viva Fry, SticksXNamur, all good people that are talking about issues that matter.
Pay attention.
Some of you maybe will do more.
Maybe you'll get active.
Maybe you'll run for office.
Maybe you'll start a business.
Maybe you will be one of those public square businesses.
We all play our part.
The simplest thing anyone can do is just know.
For all that is required for evil to triumph is that good men do nothing.