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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| Make sure to go to TimCast.com, click join us, and become a member to support this podcast and all the work we do, and you'll get access to exclusive uncensored segments from TimCast IRL and way more. | ||
| Now, let's jump into the first story. | ||
| In a viral clip, a man who goes by the name JadedWithJay posts TikTok videos, and in one that everyone's sharing around, he says, I'm in a cult. | ||
| Hunger for knowledge, because I started detaching myself from that narrative. | ||
| Around the seven minute mark, he explains that as he started reading these books and breaking himself from this narrative, he realized the idea that the other side of the political world are just evil people out to destroy everything was wrong. | ||
| And I'd been lied to. | ||
| Now, I will say, this guy's a liberal guy. | ||
| I mean, there's not too many videos from him, but he does have a video defending pronouns, criticizing Christianity. | ||
| It's not hardcore leftist stuff. | ||
| It's default liberal stuff. | ||
| And I think that's the important takeaway. | ||
| In this video produced, that's about 10 minutes long, he explains, without naming the ideology or the politics, he discusses how he started reading a book from someone who was On the other side. | ||
| And that he thought this person was evil and it was very difficult to read, but he forced himself to do it. | ||
| And he said, I found myself, you know, just having a- struggling to read this book. | ||
| I open it up, I read a paragraph, I close it, I can't read this. | ||
| And he realized. | ||
| He is in a cult. | ||
| And I think it's obvious to everybody which side of the political spectrum he is on. | ||
| Well, to verify this, because he doesn't get into the specifics in the video, I went to his TikTok page and I saw that he's a default liberal. | ||
| He was saying things like, I understand people don't like pronouns, but instead of inventing words, I just use they, them for my friends. | ||
| Default liberal position. | ||
| He talks about Christianity and what's happened to it, flying in private jets and megachurches. | ||
| But he's not, again, a far leftist. | ||
| He makes a really great point in this long video talking about being in a cult and the pain he felt. | ||
| And I saw this, and earlier in the week I had been talking about a story, which I'd like to take the opportunity to bring up as well, as it pertains to the idea of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and how to combat it and what to do. | ||
| Because I had this funny thought. | ||
| The story goes that this past weekend, past weekend, I was at MGM National Harbor, hanging out in the poker room. | ||
| A lot of fun. | ||
| Froze to play poker. | ||
| Man, I just, I can't do 1-3 anymore. | ||
| 2-5, seriously. | ||
| 5-10's crazy. | ||
| People are nuts at 5-10. | ||
| But anyway, more to the point. | ||
| Some guys who knew who I was asked me if I would play a 5-10 game with them. | ||
| This means there is a $5 and $10 required bet every rotation. | ||
| So about every eight hands you're dealt, you're spending $15. | ||
| It's actually one of the cheapest games in the casino, despite the fact that 5-10 is a large poker game. | ||
| And anyway, so I'm sitting at this table with these guys, a Libertarian guy there. | ||
| Two guys who know who I am. | ||
| One guy's not necessarily a fan, but he's seen the show. | ||
| One guy has no idea who I am. | ||
| Well, the guys who do are asking me questions and I'm answering them. | ||
| And, oh boy! | ||
| Does this trigger Mr. Trump Derangement Syndrome? | ||
| He gets really angry. | ||
| At first, he's just sitting there trying to figure out what hands I'm playing. | ||
| And I ended up winning a ton of money. | ||
| Crazy. | ||
| And played really well. | ||
| Kind of. | ||
| That's another story. | ||
| But anyway, I ended up winning. | ||
| And, you know, we were having conversations. | ||
| I'm asked about Kanye West, what's going on in the show, political candidates I've had on the show. | ||
| And then someone says, have you decided who you're voting for yet? | ||
| I said, oh, Trump, of course. | ||
| And this guy, he's sitting straight across to the left, loses it! | ||
| All of a sudden, he just won't shut up. | ||
| He's muttering to himself, he's complaining, he's whinging, saying things that aren't true, saying Trump has never told the truth in his life. | ||
| How could you vote for someone? | ||
| Wow, you must be so stupid you can't argue with stupid. | ||
| And the dude's not even hearing any word I have to say. | ||
| The reason I bring this story up is, one, I love to tell it because, um, Probably one of the most joyous moments of my life was when he said, I bet you listen to Alex Jones. | ||
| I bet, I bet you like listen to him. | ||
| You're a conspiracy theorist. | ||
| I was like, I actually know Alex Jones. | ||
| And then I'm like, actually, I consider Alex Jones to be a friend of mine. | ||
| And then the guy to my right's like, he's really going to get mad about that. | ||
| And I'm just like, dude, what do you want me to say? | ||
| Okay. | ||
| I'm chilling. | ||
| I'm laughing. | ||
| I'm having a good time. | ||
| We're playing a game here on the weekend. | ||
| And this dude's brain is about to burst from his skull. | ||
| And I'm like, you know, now that I think about it, I love playing the cards straightforward when dealing with individuals like this. | ||
| This guy, of course, I'm in a cult. | ||
| He wakes up. | ||
| He realizes it. | ||
| And this is what we're experiencing. | ||
| The reason we knew right off the bat this guy was a liberal, despite not saying Democrat or Republican or naming any individuals or naming a specific ideology, was because the right ain't in a cult. | ||
| Oh, don't get me wrong, there are some diehard Trump culty people. | ||
| They exist. | ||
| But for the most part, I'm sitting here with a guy who's wearing an RFK Jr. | ||
| shirt, a guy who says he's in the Mises caucus of a libertarian party, another guy who says he's seen the show before, he doesn't like Trump, he's a Kanye fan, We're all different politics here. | ||
| The guy sitting in front of me, he was Jewish and he said, I love Ye, but it's a shame that he doesn't like my people. | ||
| And I was like, well, don't worry. | ||
| Jonah Hill convinced him to like you again. | ||
| He's like, oh yeah, I believe that. | ||
| We left. | ||
| And he was asking me genuine questions about, don't you think Donald Trump is bad for this, that, or otherwise? | ||
| And I was calmly answering. | ||
| We had a conversation. | ||
| This guy was like, regular dude, and he seemed smart. | ||
| The guy with Trump Derangement Syndrome, you could not even say a single word to him. | ||
| His brain did not function properly. | ||
| I don't know what he was doing at a 5-10 game if he can't function that way, and his emotional triggers just go through the roof. | ||
| I don't know what causes people to experience this. | ||
| But as you know, and I know, it is not a function of the quote-unquote right. | ||
| It is a function of the left. | ||
| This is what I find fascinating about this. | ||
| I want to play a little bit of this clip. | ||
| So you can hear what this guy has to say, and I want to address some of it to break down this narrative in the world we live in. | ||
| It is a yin-yang moment. | ||
| I believe that the left is dominated by powerful individuals in media and politics, and I genuinely will say, they are evil. | ||
| Does not mean that every single person on the left is evil. | ||
| There are people I like, depending on what your definition of the left is. | ||
| We could say far leftists, we could say economic leftists, we can say establishment, but I want to make sure we make these distinctions clear. | ||
| Kyle Kalinske, for instance. | ||
| He is, in essence, in a certain sense, a leftist, But we just have different opinions. | ||
| I think Kyle Kalinske tries his best to be an honest guy and really understand the world, and I have tremendous respect for him. | ||
| Crystal Ball, for instance, and, you know, from Breaking Points. | ||
| I also view as a progressive who gets a lot of things wrong. | ||
| But I also know that you can have a real conversation with her because she is a sane, rational human being. | ||
| I look at people like the Young Turks. | ||
| I think they're intentionally lying and manipulating people for power, but it's a mixed bag. | ||
| Yes, they care about things, but, you know, they'll lie. | ||
| I look at people like Vos and Hassan. | ||
| Hassan is, I think, more of a doofy guy who doesn't really know what he's talking about and just toes the line for leftist and establishment ideas. | ||
| Vos, I think, is very intelligent and is a sophist. | ||
| Who will manipulate and massage facts to try and make a point and make it seem like he's smart and correct. | ||
| In essence, they're creating a false worldview to manipulate people to live the way they want. | ||
| The right has these elements, no question. | ||
| But it's fewer and far between. | ||
| You certainly have people on the right who are going to lie, cheat, and steal because that's a human trait, not a political trait. | ||
| But then you'll run into, as I mentioned, conversations where, for instance, TimCast IRL, we are viewed in the mainstream media as hard right or far right or whatever. | ||
| They like to say that, despite the fact Vice has also called me far left, whatever, for my anti-corporate views. | ||
| Despite the fact that we'll have Marianne Williamson on, we'll have anybody who wants to come on but get this, something you know, which plays to this guy's video, which I probably should play a clip of. | ||
| The left won't come on a show like this. | ||
| Even RFK Jr. | ||
| won't come on. | ||
| And the guy sitting across from me, he's a cool dude, he's wearing an RFK Jr. | ||
| shirt, he's like, why won't he come on? | ||
| And I'm like, come on. | ||
| All of these people know you will have a hard go of it if it comes down to questions of fact. | ||
| That's it. | ||
| You can have any political opinion you want. | ||
| Destiny? | ||
| Love him. | ||
| Good dude. | ||
| Disagree with him a lot. | ||
| Understand a little bit of his worldview. | ||
| We agree on facts. | ||
| We agree on the different moral implications of facts. | ||
| And he gets things wrong, and so do I. But I know that when Destiny, the omni-liberal, comes and sits down, he's gonna say, this happened on January 6th, therefore. | ||
| And I'm gonna say, we agree that happened, but not that it qualifies. | ||
| You get my point. | ||
| We're not gonna debate when you have multiple news sources saying a thing is true. | ||
| But Destiny has no problem reading the news saying, yes, I saw that too. | ||
| Accepting an issue. | ||
| However, Destiny's gonna take that liberal perspective. | ||
| And so I can respect that. | ||
| That we're having a conversation. | ||
| And that he actually heard what I said and tried to counter it. | ||
| As opposed to this guy at the poker game. | ||
| Yo, he got so boiled! | ||
| That when I was leaving, because I was like, I can only play for an hour, we gotta go to dinner. | ||
| He actually spins his chair around and turns his back on me as I'm saying, later, good playing with you guys. | ||
| And I was even gonna say to him, I tried. | ||
| I was gonna say, hey man, I appreciate you speaking up. | ||
| We don't agree, but it's cool, it was nice playing with you. | ||
| He turns his back to me, I was like, hey, good playing with you guys. | ||
| I was like, hey man, nice playing with ya, and I'm like, alright! | ||
| That's a broken brain, I'm sorry. | ||
| You can come to me and you can be any political ideology in the world, even the most egregious. | ||
| I have sat down with white nationalists. | ||
| I have sat down and spoken with white supremacists and argued with them. | ||
| I have stood in protest that you guys are wrong for these reasons. | ||
| And the craziest thing is they desperately try to argue their point and I'm like, you sound stupid. | ||
| But the left, man, something happens. | ||
| Let me play a little bit of this clip for you guys. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, I woke up Like, officially woke up. | |
| I've been thinking that I was, you know, awake and seeing the world for what it really was for a long time. | ||
| And I've been kind of- I'll occasionally be the person online that'll be like, you know what? | ||
| Like, wake up. | ||
| Like, see what's actually happening in this world. | ||
| Hey it's Kimberly Fletcher here from Moms4America with some very exciting news. | ||
| Tucker Carlson is going on a nationwide tour this fall and Moms4America has the exclusive VIP meet and greet experience for you. | ||
| Before each show, you can have the opportunity to meet Tucker Carlson in person. | ||
| These tickets are fully tax-deductible donations, so go to momsforamerica.us and get one of our very limited VIP meet-and-greet experiences with Tucker at any of the 15 cities on his first ever Coast to Coast tour. | ||
| Not only will you be supporting Moms for America in our mission to empower moms, promote liberty, and raise patriots, your tax-deductible donation secures you a full VIP experience with priority entrance and check-in, premium gold seating in the first five rows, access to a pre-show cocktail reception, an individual meet-and-greet, and photo with America's most famous conservative and our friend, Tucker Carlson. | ||
| Visit momsforamerica.us today for more information and to secure your exclusive VIP meet-and-greet tickets. | ||
| See you on the tour! | ||
| Bye! | ||
| ...world. | ||
| And... | ||
| I had no idea. | ||
| I legitimately had no idea. | ||
| And it all started with me kind of coming to the realization that | ||
| 50% of this country has a completely different way of viewing the world than me. | ||
| And I've always kind of had this idea that it was because they're being lied to, or they were being manipulated, or they were evil, or they were stupid. | ||
| That's the reason why they're able to vote for the person that they're voting for in spite of all of the really scary things that are happening in the world. | ||
| And I realize that it cannot be true. | ||
| It cannot be true that every single one of these people falls into one of those categories. | ||
| And maybe they're voting for the person that they're voting for with all of those dangers or the scary things, either because A. they don't see them, or because the things that they see on my side are scarier to them than the things that are happening on theirs. | ||
| And that really made me start to question, because I'm personally not really afraid of, I haven't been afraid of much from my political party. | ||
| And I was like, what are they seeing? | ||
| And so I really made it a mission of mine to at least, I wasn't going to agree with what they were seeing, but I wanted to understand it. | ||
| So I want to pause there and break this down. | ||
| The reason why he's instantly viewed as a liberal, a default liberal, when I'm sitting at this poker table, the guy says to me, name one thing Donald Trump has done you like I went Abraham Accords. | ||
| Like, without question, snap, the easiest thing. | ||
| I said, no new wars. | ||
| First president in my lifetime who did not start a war and actually began to pull our troops back. | ||
|
unidentified
|
And the guy goes, no response. | |
| He immediately starts muttering to the guy next to him, who also didn't like Trump. | ||
| He's saying, you can't argue with stupid, I guess. | ||
| These people are too stupid to realize. | ||
| And I was like, dude, I'm sitting right here. | ||
| Guy, I answered your question. | ||
| Ask me more about it. | ||
| I will tell you everything. | ||
| And so the world we live in, I think most of us understand. | ||
| You, dear viewer, likely saw a video that debunked a narrative. | ||
| You read news articles. | ||
| You started to actually try and break down what are people talking about. | ||
| Brandon Strock talks a great deal about this with WalkAway. | ||
| That's why I think he's doing great work and he should do more. | ||
| I'm glad to see they're coming back. | ||
| And he mentions that he felt physical pain when he realized his worldview was fake. | ||
| That the media had lied about everything Trump was doing. | ||
| And so here I sit with the guy. | ||
| He won't listen to a single word I have to say. | ||
| He doesn't actually care. | ||
| He just wants to hate. | ||
| It's the fascinating thing. | ||
| The reason why I wanted to show this clip from this video. | ||
| He said the other side was being lied to, or being manipulated. | ||
| They were evil. | ||
| I'm gonna say it again. | ||
| The left, I believe, is generally evil. | ||
| Generally. | ||
| They're compromised of default liberals, ignorant individuals who don't know what's going on and haven't looked. | ||
| I feel bad for them, but we want to convert these people by showing them the truth. | ||
| Guys like this or people like Marianne Williamson, I think, can be explained. | ||
| You don't have to agree with me on taxes or health care or nuclear power. | ||
| Just know what's really happening so we can solve these problems. | ||
| You have people like that. | ||
| And so we had Marianne Williamson on, and she's lovely. | ||
| She's a very nice woman I have tremendous respect for, and she's wrong about a lot of things. | ||
| But we exposed her to news and information she had never read before. | ||
| Hopefully that informs her decision-making process. | ||
| You then have people like this guy at the poker table I've described. | ||
| This guy was out of his mind. | ||
| Incapable of listening to words, and just wants to hate. | ||
| He wants something to be mad about. | ||
| He wants to hate something and blame someone for all of his problems. | ||
| Well, it's funny, because isn't this what the right says of the left? | ||
| They're evil, they're lied to, they're being manipulated. | ||
| Listen, when the Libertarian Party Mises Caucus are sitting down and having conversations with post-liberals and conservatives and we're disagreeing, or even people like Destiny, who's a liberal but willing to have these arguments, There's not a cult. | ||
| We're not being lied to or manipulated. | ||
| To a certain degree, of course we all are. | ||
| But you genuinely have this guy, who has been lied to and manipulated to the point where he can't see straight, let alone have a conversation. | ||
| There was no arguing with him. | ||
| His brain did not function. | ||
| I'm not saying it to be mean to the guy with Trump Derangement Syndrome. | ||
| I'm saying, when the dude asked me to name one thing I liked, and I did, he did, before I even finished the word Abraham Accords, he's muttering to himself, looking down, going, that's just stupid people, that's just so stupid. | ||
| I can't believe how stupid people are. | ||
| Have you stopped to actually listen to words, my friend? | ||
| No. | ||
| His brain had shut down. | ||
| For what reason? | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| But it is typically these kinds of people you have interacted with. | ||
| You know this. | ||
| Trump derangement syndrome. | ||
| Now, you want to argue about, like, Biden derangement syndrome or whatever. | ||
| It's like, not really. | ||
| Not really. | ||
| People say, name one good thing Joe Biden has done. | ||
| I'm like, well, he had this push to reduce ATM fees and overdraft fees. | ||
| That was kind of a big deal. | ||
| People really liked that one. | ||
| You know, I got to give him something. | ||
| Nothing's absolute. | ||
| Of course, there's something we're going to like. | ||
| But for the most part, He's not really done much, and he's done too much bad. | ||
| And so, here I sit with a guy where I'm like, yeah, Trump's lewd, lascivious, and he's like, the largest deficit, and I was like, uh-huh, yeah, it was a big deficit, it was. | ||
| And, oh yeah, and drone strikes in foreign countries. | ||
| And I was like, he said, Choose any other president before him who, he says, if you want to vote for someone, why don't you vote for someone who respects the Constitution? | ||
| And I said, who, Joe Biden? | ||
| And he goes, any of them except Trump. | ||
| And I was like, Barack Obama? | ||
| I'm like, he drone bombed children. | ||
| He killed an American citizen. | ||
| A constitutional defense. | ||
| Spare me. | ||
| And he says Trump locked kids in cages, separated from their families. | ||
| And I said, these facilities were built by Obama. | ||
| And he was like, no they weren't, you're lying. | ||
| And I was like, dude, I lived in Homestead. | ||
| I lived in Miami where they had one of these facilities. | ||
| Doesn't matter. | ||
| And therein lies the point. | ||
| He starts rattling off all the nonsense. | ||
| He justifies anything that could be good as bad. | ||
| And that, it's a cult. | ||
| You come to me and you say, Mises Caucus. | ||
| Libertarian Party. | ||
| Dave Smith. | ||
| Here's why he's the guy. | ||
| We have Dave Smith on the show and we talk to him, and Dave's great. | ||
| And I'm like, man, I'd really love to see Dave Smith be president with a Michael Malice press secretary. | ||
| But I think the reality is Donald Trump's the best we're gonna get. | ||
| He's got the momentum. | ||
| No new wars. | ||
| I'll say this a million times. | ||
| And then I said to these guys, The first president in my life who didn't start a war and actually tried to end them. | ||
| There's nothing you're going to say to me. | ||
| And it's not an issue of facts. | ||
| We agree on the facts. | ||
| It's an issue of your moral weight means nothing to my moral values. | ||
| Okay? | ||
| If you argue Trump is looting lascivious, I agree on that issue. | ||
| And this is why I said I respect destiny. | ||
| Our morals differ, but we understand what's true. | ||
| We're not always right. | ||
| I know many of you are like, but Destiny was wrong about this. | ||
| I agree. | ||
| But I know that if I pull up an article with Destiny, we're both gonna be like, okay, we acknowledge that. | ||
| As an article, we trust, and a source with a video, okay, that happened. | ||
| The moral implications are different. | ||
| And that's where we disagree, and I'm totally okay with that. | ||
| My issue with Trump is, No new wars and attempts at peace. | ||
| Securing the U.S. | ||
| border? | ||
| Not perfect. | ||
| Bringing jobs back? | ||
| Not perfect. | ||
| Drone strikes? | ||
| A lot of things that were not perfect. | ||
| I would prefer probably a libertarian candidate, and the Mises Caucus seems pretty great. | ||
| Realistically, it's not going to happen. | ||
| I would prefer Vivek Ramaswamy. | ||
| But I told him, look, you don't have it. | ||
| It's more than just ideas to become the president. | ||
| So Donald Trump seems to make the most sense. | ||
| He has momentum, he has the base, and he's done enough good. | ||
| I can't stand the libertarians who are like, but the COVID lockdown stuff, I'm like, dude, Then vote Libertarian. | ||
| But if you think we're going to win with a Libertarian, you know, then good luck to you. | ||
| I'm looking at realistically and honestly, I think Trump has been a net positive president. | ||
| I think that when you look at the economic factors, despite all the bad things, mass spending, there were bad things, the economy was doing well. | ||
| I think you take a look at foreign wars, pulling our troops out, trying to, he was doing well. | ||
| I think you take a look at the three billion dollar reinvestment into the auto manufacture and the auto industry in Michigan, and I think, wow, let's make America great again. | ||
| I see these net positives, things that he's done that were pretty good. | ||
| Far from perfect. | ||
| Let's call it 51%. | ||
| Where you cross 50%, you're in the net positive threshold. | ||
| And look at Joe Biden as a massive net negative. | ||
| Barack Obama was a massive net negative. | ||
| George W. Bush was the biggest net negative of my life with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. | ||
| Which just led to all this conflict and chaos and refugee crises and all that. | ||
| And Bill Clinton, I gotta be honest, not really old enough to understand the implications or live in that world or follow the news. | ||
| But, you know, he had his issues too. | ||
| Again, in my lifetime, for the presidents, as I've been an adult, Donald Trump's done the best. | ||
| And I want to see more. | ||
| I want to see no foreign wars. | ||
| I want to see this stuff move back. | ||
| And so I say, okay, I'll take it, baby. | ||
| Joe Biden ain't it, and ain't got anybody else. | ||
| So what is the rationale for opposing him? | ||
| I think this guy starts to see it. | ||
| He starts to listen to moral conservatives and think, I get that. | ||
| I'll give you one. | ||
| It's the other side. | ||
| They're a cult. | ||
| You're transphobes. | ||
| You're bigots. | ||
| Desistence rates, according to the scientific research, can range from like 65 to 95 percent. | ||
| And the numbers are a little off on that one, but it's around there. | ||
| It could be like 65 to 92. | ||
| It might be even higher than that. | ||
| And suicide rates can range from like 30 to 40 percent or more for those that are trans. | ||
| In which case, more likely, a child will stop being trans and stop experiencing dysphoria by the time they reach puberty. | ||
| But putting them on blockers could result in a dramatic increase in suicidality. | ||
| So, that's just logic. | ||
| I don't hate anybody. | ||
| I'm just like, it's probably better that we do this. | ||
| The left, of course, won't listen to a single word of it. | ||
| So what do you do? | ||
| Hey guys, Josh Hammer here, the host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer, a podcast for the First Podcast Network. | ||
| Look, there are a lot of shows out there that are explaining the political news cycle, what's happening on the Hill, the this, the that. | ||
| There are no other shows that are cutting straight to the point when it comes to the unprecedented lawfare debilitating And affecting the 2024 presidential election. | ||
| We do all of that every single day right here on America on Trial with Josh Hammer. | ||
| Subscribe and download your episodes wherever you get your podcasts. | ||
| It's America on Trial with Josh Hammer. | ||
| You know, I bring up this story, and I saw this video, and I wanted to make the point. | ||
| Part of me actually wanted to play the manipulative game, because there's a bunch of things I could have said. | ||
| When he said, who are you voting for? | ||
| He didn't ask me, someone else did, and I said Trump, and the guy lost his mind. | ||
| I know, I know how this stuff works. | ||
| I've talked about it quite a bit. | ||
| Rapport extreme turn. | ||
| I've brought this up several times in manipulation tactics and techniques. | ||
| Rapport extreme term. | ||
| Many of you who follow, if you followed every single one of my videos, you've heard me talk about it before, but it's not something I talk about quite frequently. | ||
| But I'll give an example of how we would use this manipulation technique to alter an opinion and how you would do it in this context. | ||
| The concept is this. | ||
| First, to actually be able to convince someone of anything, you have to have a rapport with them. | ||
| They have to feel that you are one of them and they are safe. | ||
| If someone approaches you as an enemy, you will go defensive emotionally and physically. | ||
| What this results in is them saying, no matter what, you're my enemy and you're wrong. | ||
| So what do you do? | ||
| Rapport. | ||
| In this circumstance, when a guy clearly hated Trump, rapport would mean, I completely agree. | ||
| What a disgusting, tyrannical psychopath. | ||
| I'm voting for Joe Biden because he's, of course, the incumbent. | ||
| There's no other candidate. | ||
| He's the best we got. | ||
| You know what he did under the Biden under the Obama administration was not necessarily the most impactful historical things, but he did a good job. | ||
| He did his job. | ||
| Unlike Donald Trump. | ||
| Now we've established rapport. | ||
| This guy's saying, he's like me. | ||
| He also doesn't like Trump. | ||
| Emotional barriers... lowered. | ||
| The next thing you do is shock their system with what's called the extreme. | ||
| The extreme would be... | ||
| Like, the reason I'm really interested in another Biden presidency is... I just think we've got to... We've got to just destroy, and then insert country. | ||
| I'm gonna avoid actually saying the name of a country, you know, because it'll just cause, you know, people to lose their minds. | ||
| But my point is, you put him in a position where he's supposed to be on your side and your allies, but you present him a circumstance he could not possibly agree with. | ||
| You know, I gotta be honest. | ||
| I think Biden needs to redouble his efforts. | ||
| I think we need more bombs dropping in these areas. | ||
| Just put an end to it! | ||
| Turn it to glass already! | ||
| I appreciate the $100 billion he sent already, but it's time to vaporize these people. | ||
| I think the next thing they should do is, we shouldn't just be sending aid to Ukraine. | ||
| We need full-scale invasion of Russia. | ||
| I'm actually glad that's on the table. | ||
| And it's only gonna be on the table with Joe Biden. | ||
| Donald Trump trying to appease dictators. | ||
| No. | ||
| I think, look, I'm 37. | ||
| I'm not gonna get drafted. | ||
| We start drafting up our 18-year-olds, send them to the front line, put an end to Putin once and for all, take it over, and lock the Russians in camps. | ||
| You see, that's a psychotic thing to say, right? | ||
| Of course. | ||
| The extreme puts him in a pressure situation where he's supposed to agree with you. | ||
| Biden is the better choice than Trump. | ||
| But you've now, as his friend, created a circumstance where he must disagree with you. | ||
| Of course, then, he won't be triggered by Trump derangement syndrome because he's pro-Biden. | ||
| He'll push back and say, no, no, no, you can't do any of that, are you nuts? | ||
| You can't send American boots on the ground. | ||
| I said, what do you mean? | ||
| We already got them there now. | ||
| We got special forces. | ||
| What are you, some Trump supporter? | ||
| You want to defend Russia? | ||
| And now you've put him in the Trump supporter camp defending Russia. | ||
| No, that's not me. | ||
| I can't do that. | ||
| You see what you've done? | ||
| You've become the Biden supporter, accusing him of defending Trump for not wanting to be so extreme. | ||
| This is manipulation. | ||
| This is why I don't like doing it. | ||
| I abandoned this stuff a long time ago, because working in the non-profit sector is so dirty and filthy. | ||
| It's what they do for ideological capture. | ||
| In this context, typically you can expect someone to be presented with this extreme scenario, to reject that, and say, I'm not getting behind something like that. | ||
| I don't like Trump, but I'm not voting for that. | ||
| To which you can then respond, Okay, look, I get it, I get it, right? | ||
| As long as we can agree Trump is not an option, I'll take it. | ||
| Maybe Biden isn't the best choice. | ||
| Maybe he's not that good and his policies might have some errors, particularly with Ukraine, but we can at least agree on no Trump. | ||
| The turn is when you've now planted the seed in their mind. | ||
| They opposed you! | ||
| So by creating this extreme, they've taken the position of opposing Biden policy. | ||
| You then agree with them. | ||
| You know what? | ||
| Fine. | ||
| You're right. | ||
| I'll give it to you. | ||
| Biden's not that great. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Okay? | |
| In fact, he's probably bad. | ||
| But I just don't want Trump. | ||
| You've made it their idea. | ||
| It's the inception, basically. | ||
| You've made it their idea. | ||
| There is a flaw with my candidate. | ||
| They pushed back. | ||
| These are basic manipulation techniques. | ||
| It's like the first step in force and changing people's opinions. | ||
| Now, the issue with these is the context they work in. | ||
| Politicians aren't going to say it. | ||
| Newscasters aren't going to do it. | ||
| It only really works in one-off circumstances where you meet someone and then you leave and you never meet him again. | ||
| You cannot maintain the facade that you actually like Joe Biden. | ||
| So I thought about that scenario and I'm like, I'm never going to see this guy again. | ||
| I was like, what if I just pushed his buttons? | ||
| I don't like doing that. | ||
| I just outright said, look, I like Trump. | ||
| Here's why. | ||
| And his brain exploded. | ||
| But it makes me wonder if there really is a way to deprogram people who are in a cult who are unwilling to listen. | ||
| What do you do? | ||
| There's a viral video right now of a teacher who deprograms a kid who thinks JK Rowling's a bigot. | ||
| And he asks a bunch of questions and finally at the end of the video the kid says, I actually feel really stupid for having said that. | ||
| And the teacher's like, no, that's fine. | ||
| I mean, you know, we hear things and then we make assumptions because we trust. | ||
| The reality is, You know, we have to be morally just. | ||
| We have to stand by what we believe in, which is being honest. | ||
| The reason why using a manipulation tactic like that in the sky would be the wrong thing to do is that if you truly believe you are justified in using these tactics, you're only creating a world where those tactics will be implemented by those in power. | ||
| Thus, the ends do not justify the means, because you'll never meet the ends. | ||
| We must take the actions that are morally just today, And that is being honest and trying our hardest despite the fact some people are obstinate and their brains don't work. | ||
| But at least this guy figured it out. | ||
| I'm gonna leave it there. | ||
| Next segment is coming up at 1pm on this channel. | ||
| Thanks for hanging out, and I'll see you all then. | ||
| Guys, I think we broke Bud Light. | ||
| Just completely broke them, okay? | ||
| You know, after the Dylan Mulvaney thing and the boycott and their losing billions of dollars in market cap over at Anheuser-Busch, they tried to figure out what to do and they couldn't quite do it. | ||
| They tried Harley Davidson. | ||
| They tried UFC, which helped a little bit, I guess, for some people. | ||
| Now they're trying out Shane Gillis, and some people are kind of happy with it, but for the most part, I think most people still want to just destroy Bud Light. | ||
| Now they got this new commercial for the Super Bowl. | ||
| Uh, the Bud Light Genie! | ||
| And I, uh... Yo. | ||
| It is pure chaos, it makes absolutely no sense, and it is basically Bud Lights spinning in circles, banging their heads on the wall, being like, We don't know what to do to make you buy our beer anymore! | ||
| Maybe that's just it. | ||
| It's kind of sad, really, to watch them suffer, so... They say, Struggling Bud Light unveils new Bud Light Genie character for a $7 million Ruble commercial that includes cameos by Peyton Manning, Post Malone, and UFC Chief Dana White as it tries to claw back customers after Dylan Mulvaney fiasco. | ||
| I'm going to play this commercial for you, and you are going to be sitting there going, huh? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Here we go. | |
| Are you the Bud Light Genie? | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| So we get wishes? | ||
| It's my thing. | ||
| Gimme. | ||
| 80s metal hair. | ||
| Yes. | ||
| Filthy rich. | ||
| So filthy. | ||
| Invisible. | ||
| Predictable. | ||
| Giant bicep. | ||
| Big one. | ||
| A sweet ride. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Best night ever! | |
| What's next? | ||
| Bud Lights? | ||
| I wish Peyton Manning was my best friend. | ||
| How we doing? | ||
| Oh! | ||
| Oh, it's Maloney. | ||
| Hey. | ||
| I'm a genie. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Gemini. | |
| I'm a genie. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, look at you. | |
| Nope. | ||
| What? | ||
|
unidentified
|
I wish I was at that fight! | |
| He's gonna need another bicep. | ||
| House party. | ||
| Definitely. | ||
| Let's go! | ||
| We wish for a T-Rex. | ||
| Guilty. | ||
| Let's go to Super Bowl 58. | ||
| Now we're talking! | ||
| I, I, I, what? | ||
| I don't get it. | ||
|
unidentified
|
What, what, what is it? | |
| Look, look, okay. | ||
| I understand the Dylan Mulvaney thing. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I do. | |
| I think it was awful. | ||
| They were like, Dylan Mulvaney has a lot of followers on TikTok. | ||
| We want to get non-frat bro kids to drink beer. | ||
| Kind of messed up, by the way. | ||
| But I understood the concept of having a person with lots of followers say, hoo-hoo, beer. | ||
| And you're like, okay. | ||
| I understand the Harley Davidson thing. | ||
| Harley Davidson teaming up with Bud Light for collector's cans. | ||
| In fact, they were probably working on that deal for some time. | ||
| I doubt they steamrolled through it. | ||
| That didn't save him either. | ||
| I understand. | ||
| Sponsoring Shane Gillis? | ||
| Or whatever that means, I don't know. | ||
| This I don't get. | ||
| This is like one of the worst Super Bowl commercials I've ever seen. | ||
| Usually there's something funny. | ||
| This is literally just a bunch of random catech things spattered all over the wall because Bud Light has no idea what to do. | ||
| Maybe, uh... | ||
| Maybe they're sitting in a marketing meeting and there's a guy and he's just like, look, uh, we're done. | ||
| We, we got nothing. | ||
| No matter what we do, nobody wants to buy our beer anymore. | ||
| And so someone said, let's go the Quiznos route. | ||
| You guys ever see that Quiznos commercial with those weird, creepy things? | ||
| I'm going to pull it up because a lot of people don't know this and we've mentioned it several times. | ||
| It's like the most famous commercial ever made. | ||
| And when you search for Quiznos, it's Spongmonkeys? | ||
| Is that what they're called? | ||
| Sponge. | ||
| You guys remember this one. | ||
| Look. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Here you go. | |
| Hey look, one of the most famous commercials ever made. | ||
| And it's... weird. | ||
| I remember these commercials. | ||
| It was kind of crazy when Quiznos first became a thing. | ||
| Because we used to go to Subway when I was a kid, and they did not toast your subs. | ||
| I don't know, maybe that was just mine? | ||
| And then Quiznos happens, and they're like, the subs go through and they get hot and toasty. | ||
| And then all of a- I think we should get subs. | ||
| I think I'm gonna go get a sandwich. | ||
| But then, uh... | ||
| Then, you know, Quiznos comes out, they do this commercial, and now they teach people about this commercial in marketing classes because it was so effective. | ||
| This creepy, weird, monster thing screaming, a little like chinchillas, singing horribly, atonally, in raspy voices, and, uh, maybe that's what Bud Light's going for. | ||
| Hey, let's just be psychotic! | ||
| A genie comes in, makes a guy's arm big for no reason, gives a woman weird clothes, uh, one guy gets long hair, Post Malone is there, a T-Rex, and I'm just sitting here thinking like, man, we broke Bud Light. | ||
| Remember when they tried that commercial? | ||
| I think Bud Light's been having a hard go of it. | ||
| What was that commercial where they're trying to get women to drink beer? | ||
| I think this is what happened with Dylan Mulvaney. | ||
| They did that commercial where the woman's on hold, and then the boyfriend grabs two Bud Lights. | ||
| What was that? | ||
| Let me grab that one. | ||
| It's funny, that's why. | ||
| And, uh... Bud Light Hold video from Ad Age. | ||
| This is from the 2023 Super Bowl. | ||
| Wow! | ||
|
unidentified
|
Really? | |
| Super Bowl 57. | ||
| So this is before the Dylan Mulvaney fiasco. | ||
| Take a look at this one. | ||
| This is such cringe. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Is it gonna play? | |
| Here you go. | ||
| The estimated hold time is now less than 96 minutes. | ||
| So he grabs two Bud Lights and cracks them open. | ||
|
unidentified
|
He walks over, dancing with his Bud Light. | |
| He hands his significant other a beer and then tries to dance with it. | ||
| This commercial is so for women. | ||
| And now he and his girlfriend are dancing while drinking Bud Light. | ||
| We thank you for your patience. | ||
| Oh I get it. | ||
| They're dancing to the hold music. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Sorry, are you still there? | |
| Yes. | ||
| Okay, please hold. | ||
| Yeah, they got made fun of brutally for this. | ||
| Easy to drink. | ||
|
unidentified
|
What is this? | |
| What's this looking? | ||
| Easy to enjoy. | ||
| I think this may be what happened. | ||
| Like, didn't this commercial come out before the... Oh, are they bragging about this? | ||
| Kaylee Sperry is annoyed for the long wait for a representative after making a call to an unspecified service. | ||
| And Miles Teller opens two cans of beer and he dances like Michael Jackson or something. | ||
| Man. | ||
| I think after this, they were just kind of like, look, we're trying to get women. | ||
| Women don't like this stuff. | ||
| What do men like? | ||
| And then that lady was probably like, trans people? | ||
| Women seem to love men who act like women. | ||
| I mean, they love RuPaul's Drag Race. | ||
| I wonder if that really was a thing where they were like... You know, women like Bravo. | ||
| They like gay men. | ||
| They like men dressed like women. | ||
| It's kinda weird, but let's try it out! | ||
| And, uh, there you go. | ||
| And that was it. | ||
| But this was, uh, look it says 2023 Super Bowl. | ||
| So this had to have been, uh, February of 2023 when they did this. | ||
| And that was a few months before they just totally nuked everything about their company by going for Dylan Mulvaney. | ||
| But now it's, uh, it's sad to see. | ||
| I don't know, I guess it's kind of dumb to highlight a Super Bowl commercial that's so stupid. | ||
| Usually you get these Super Bowl commercials that are funny and make a point, and you're shocked by them. | ||
| But now you've got this thing going on where, like, bro, the Super Bowl didn't even happen, and they already put the commercial out. | ||
| They're calling it a Super Bowl commercial. | ||
| Basically, the Super Bowl is quite literally just a commercials thing, and it's been for a long time. | ||
| Now, not only are you no longer waiting to watch the commercials during the Super Bowl because they put them out in advance, you've got people faking it because they don't want to spend a lot of money on the Super Bowl, so what they'll do is, they will purposefully make a shocking commercial they know will never be approved, and then they'll claim it's a rejected Super Bowl ad to get people to watch it. | ||
| That's the weirdest thing imaginable. | ||
| We've had people tell us to buy Super Bowl commercials, and I'm just like, what's the point? | ||
| Like, no, seriously, what's the point? | ||
| I mean, we did the Times Square thing. | ||
| We bought TimCast billboards on the entire North End, it's called the North End Domination, during New Year's Eve. | ||
| And it's crazy, it's basically the other, like you've got two sides, you've got the tower with the ball, and then you've got the other end, the north end. | ||
| And you could actually see us on a bunch of the TV programs, like CNN when they were live. | ||
| You would see TimCast pop up only every so often. | ||
| It kind of sucks. | ||
| We had the whole tower, every billboard. | ||
| It was crazy. | ||
| It cost like several hundred thousand dollars. | ||
| And we got to go there and get invited to a VIP party for New Year's in New York, in Times Square. | ||
| We got to walk around outside of security. | ||
| It was pretty based. | ||
| You know, had a good time. | ||
| And we did that. | ||
| I don't know what it does for us. | ||
| You know, it's like prestige. | ||
| You spend the money to build recognition. | ||
| I am surprised to find that, like, we did a billboard campaign in Chicago, and some of those billboards, I think, like, were up for a year. | ||
| Because if nobody buys the space, they don't do the work to take down the old ads, so you just get free space. | ||
| And, uh, we ended up getting, like, two and a half months of a vinyl billboard in Times Square. | ||
| We were in Times Square, like, the whole year. | ||
| It was crazy. | ||
| And it made a lot of people angry. | ||
| A lot of leftists were fuming walking into Times Square where they work every day and there's a big ol' billboard of us. | ||
| But what's the point of this? | ||
| Like, it just seems like all these companies are clawing at something that doesn't matter anymore. | ||
| It just ain't there. | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| I look at a lot of these movies and it feels like our culture is just broken. | ||
| What is the Bud Light Genie supposed to be and why did they spend so much money on this? | ||
| It makes no point. | ||
| They should have brought Shane Gillison and done a Super Bowl commercial where he just makes jokes and offensive ones. | ||
| Then they could have generated some buzz. | ||
| In the meantime, whatever, man. | ||
| I guess we broke the company. | ||
| I'll leave it there. | ||
| Next segment's coming up at 4 p.m. | ||
| on this channel. | ||
| Thanks for hanging out. | ||
| We'll see you all then. | ||
| So believe it or not, somebody actually predicted a Joe Biden win in 2020 and he was right. | ||
| It's a historian who's predicted every election correctly since 1984 and he's currently, he's currently telling everybody Biden is on track to win the White House based on his 13 keys metric. | ||
| Now I'm not here to rain on your parade. | ||
| But let this be a warning. | ||
| If you think you've won, you've lost. | ||
| You're going to have to redouble your efforts. | ||
| Register everyone you can to vote because the game is certainly different. | ||
| Everything's changing. | ||
| We had the story earlier in the week about a Democrat who was arrested for voter fraud, facilitating a voter fraud operation using mail-in ballots. | ||
| I don't know what's going to happen. | ||
| I can't predict it. | ||
| But we do have this story which I think is worth listening to. | ||
| A historian who predicted every election correctly since 1984 says Biden is leading the race for the White House, but there are enough issues the pendulum could swing in Trump's favor. | ||
| He has 13 keys that he goes through. | ||
| Party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign military failure, foreign military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma. | ||
| Now the interesting thing about the charisma issue is, I mean, it's an opinion, I guess. | ||
| But this guy has used this system, based on his views, to accurately predict the past several elections. | ||
| Now it's funny, he actually predicted Joe Biden! | ||
| From American University Washington, American.edu, does Alan Lichtman stand by his 13 keys prediction of a Joe Biden win? | ||
| October 28th, 2020, this guy predicted Joe Biden was going to win using this system. | ||
| And I'll break down what he said back then, and Joe Biden actually won. | ||
| Now the funny thing here is, I don't think Joe Biden won the election. | ||
| I believe he won the vote. | ||
| He won the electoral vote count. | ||
| He won the process. | ||
| He became the president. | ||
| What is this distinction? | ||
| In terms of a core argument between Trump's presidency and a potential Biden presidency, Trump wins handily. | ||
| In terms of invigorating people, inspiring them and getting them to go out in the streets and show up to vote, Trump wins handily. | ||
| In terms of collecting the votes to have a higher vote total in that literal sense, Joe Biden won because of universal mail-in voting and ease of access. | ||
| But that is to say, most of these people I shouldn't say most, but a large portion of those who gave Joe Biden the win for the presidency didn't care enough to actually go out and vote. | ||
| People had to go to them through ballot harvesting, door campaigns, etc. | ||
| But here's what he said, this professor back in 2020. | ||
| They asked in 2016, Your 13 keys correctly predicted a Trump win. | ||
| In 2019, the keys pointed towards another Trump win. | ||
| But that has now changed. | ||
| How many keys are turned against Trump? | ||
| So again, this is back in October of 2020, right before the election. | ||
| He says there are seven keys turned against Trump. | ||
| One more than is needed to predict his defeat. | ||
| According to the keys to the White House system, that has correctly predicted the outcomes of the presidential election since 84. | ||
| The negative keys are. | ||
| Mandate. | ||
| Because Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018. | ||
| Short-term economics. | ||
| Because of an election year recession. | ||
| That's COVID. | ||
| Long-term economic key. | ||
| Because of the sharply negative growth this year. | ||
| Social unrest. | ||
| Protests raging across the land. | ||
| Scandal. | ||
| Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full U.S. | ||
| House of Representatives. | ||
| Foreign military success because the lack of an acclaimed success abroad. | ||
| And 12, incumbent charisma because Trump appeals only to a narrow base. | ||
| Now, I think it's important to point out these are just opinions. | ||
| Trump charisma. | ||
| Are you kidding? | ||
| I'd say he had it. | ||
| Trump had the charisma. | ||
| Are you nuts? | ||
| Joe Biden doesn't have any charisma. | ||
| Nobody was appealed to by Joe Biden. | ||
| Here's what I really think. | ||
| I think this guy is just giving his opinion and he got lucky. | ||
| We're not reading about all the other guys who made predictions with their systems because they got it wrong. | ||
| But here's what he says today. | ||
| Lichtman system pays no need to put no heed to polling, however, and shows Biden winning. | ||
| At present, Lichtman said Biden wins on Key 3, an incumbent running for re-election. | ||
| Fair point. | ||
| I agree with that. | ||
| He has not faced a serious challenge for his party's nomination. | ||
| I agree with that. | ||
| Well, no, I don't agree with that. | ||
| RFK Jr. | ||
| was a serious challenge. | ||
| They cut him out. | ||
| How could you say he hasn't faced a serious challenge? | ||
| He says, which wins him Key 2 and has made, uh, he hasn't faced a serious challenge. | ||
| I'm gonna say this, he is the incumbent, but he loses number two. | ||
| RFK Jr. | ||
| is challenging him. | ||
| But they booted him from the party and wouldn't let him run. | ||
| Okay, let's see where he goes. | ||
| Major policy changes. | ||
| The incumbent administration affects his major changes in national policy. | ||
| This one's interesting because I like this as a metric. | ||
| He's not suggesting it's a positive or negative thing. | ||
| Just that something happened. | ||
| I actually agree. | ||
| People want to, they say, do something, do something. | ||
| They don't care what you did. | ||
| As long as they can say he's doing something. | ||
| Seriously. | ||
| He wins key six favorable long-term economic trends. | ||
| I find that absolutely laughable. | ||
| Real per capita economic growth post-inflation over the past four years has equaled or exceeded the average growth rate during the previous two presidential terms. | ||
| Okay, fine. | ||
| I'm gonna give it to him. | ||
| Not like everybody's feeling Biden... Biden... Biden... Biden... What are they calling it? | ||
| It's not Bidenflation. | ||
| Bidenomics? | ||
| Lichtman also gives Biden Key 13, which states, The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. | ||
| My friend, Trump's leading in the polls. | ||
| Joe Biden's approval rating's in the gutter. | ||
| Challenge your charisma. | ||
| The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. | ||
| Hyperpolarization? | ||
| I think it's tough to agree with this. | ||
| Not that he's wrong to say that people don't like Trump, but we are not in that same era anymore, so we'll see. | ||
| It'll be funny if this guy's prediction proves incorrect moving forward, and then everyone just forgets that he ever made any predictions. | ||
| But hey, I wouldn't count him out. | ||
| He admitted Trump is a hero to some, but said the definition only applies to bipartisan heroes in the mold of Eisenhower. | ||
| And, I gotta be honest, Barack Obama didn't fall into that. | ||
| Republicans despised him. | ||
| Trump wins three categories. | ||
| One, party mandate. | ||
| That is, the Republicans won narrowly in 2020. | ||
| I'm sorry, 2022. | ||
| After the 2022 midterm elections, the Democrats hold fewer seats in Congress than they did after 2018. | ||
| Trump wins Key 12 because Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero. | ||
| Very interesting. | ||
| And they kind of negate each other. | ||
| Trump's third win is Key 11 because Lichtman judges there has been no major foreign policy or military success. | ||
| To that extent, Biden loses on 10. | ||
| Military failure! | ||
| Abject! | ||
| Lichtman argued the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan would not register on his tally, that it was hardly mentioned during the Republican presidential debates, and people appeared to have forgotten it. | ||
| Laughable. | ||
| This is the turning point where Joe Biden's approval rating sank. | ||
| Perhaps the most contentious is Key Nine. | ||
| The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. | ||
| Very interesting. | ||
| Lichtman says the Trump campaign has not yet managed to make any scandal stick to the Biden administration. | ||
| Lichtman, a Democrat, said his system is not based on any personal opinion. | ||
| Here is the secret to being a successful forecaster. | ||
| The most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. | ||
| I've called about as many Republican wins as Democratic wins. | ||
| In 2016, I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump. | ||
| Fair point. | ||
| I don't know that he's right. | ||
| I don't know that I agree. | ||
| But I strongly suggest people take this seriously and try and figure out how, in these metrics, they can improve a Trump candidacy. | ||
| That is to say, he did not mention third party. | ||
| Is it a joke? | ||
| Let's go through this, and I'll give you my assessment. | ||
| Party mandate, Trump wins. | ||
| Contest, Trump wins. | ||
| So that's two for Trump. | ||
| There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. | ||
| There is, RFK Jr. | ||
| Incumbency, Joe Biden wins. | ||
| Third party, there was no significant third party or independent campaign. | ||
| Wrong. | ||
| Trump wins. | ||
| RFK Jr. | ||
| was booted from the Democrats, so he was challenging on the Democrat side, and now he's challenging as an independent, so that's two! | ||
| Short-term economy. | ||
| Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. | ||
| That one goes for Trump. | ||
| People are complaining. | ||
| They're saying, I'm not feeling any of this. | ||
| Long-term economics. | ||
| I'm gonna go ahead and give that one to Joe Biden. | ||
| To Joe Biden, which I believe puts him at three. | ||
| He's got incumbency. | ||
| He's got... No, that gives him two. | ||
| What does he have? | ||
| He's got party money goes to Trump, contest goes to Trump, incumbency goes to Biden, third party goes to Trump, short-term economy goes to Trump, and this puts long-term economy for Biden. | ||
| So we're at six. | ||
| Policy changes. | ||
| Biden did. | ||
| Fair point. | ||
| Social unrest. | ||
| There is no sustained social unrest. | ||
| That goes for Joe Biden. | ||
| Scandal. | ||
| I believe that Joe Biden... This one's a toss-up. | ||
| I'm not going to give it to either one because I don't see any scandals. | ||
| Foreign military failure. | ||
| That goes to Trump. | ||
| Biden failed. | ||
| Foreign military success. | ||
| There is no success for Joe Biden. | ||
| That goes to Trump. | ||
| Trump is now at six. | ||
| Incumbent charisma. | ||
| Trump. | ||
| Biden sucks. | ||
| Challenger charisma. | ||
| Toss-up. | ||
| Donald Trump sits at 7 to Biden's 4 based on a legitimate assessment, in my opinion. | ||
| Now, I could be wrong. | ||
| You might say this, that, or otherwise. | ||
| It really does come down to opinion. | ||
| But I have to wonder how he's drawn his assessment. | ||
| Is it a joke? | ||
| RFK Jr. | ||
| was polling in the double digits against Biden, so they cut him off the primary. | ||
| So perhaps you can argue There's no contest because they didn't allow it. | ||
| Fine, Trump goes to six. | ||
| But third party? | ||
| It's still there. | ||
| So tell me. | ||
| Six to four. | ||
| That's where we're currently at. | ||
| I'd say, based on your scale, Trump's on track for a win. | ||
| But hey, who am I to know? | ||
| This guy's made the predictions. | ||
| I think it's important you pay attention to him. | ||
| I'll leave it there. | ||
| Next segment is coming up at 6 p.m. | ||
| on this channel. | ||
| Thanks for hanging out, and we'll see you all then. | ||
| This one's for all the haters out there. | ||
| All the whiny crybabies who just want to complain all day. | ||
| But there is a lot to talk about in terms of building culture and winning a culture war. | ||
| For the longest time, there have been people who are anti-woke, anti-establishment, or on the right, who have complained about the likes of, just insert every company, Disney and the digital media outlets, but they're all losing. | ||
| They are. | ||
| I mean, Disney's being sued by Gina Carano now. | ||
| They lost a billion dollars on a bunch of their movies. | ||
| The woke stuff is just not really working. | ||
| And tomorrow, Shane Gillis will be hosting Saturday Night Live, which is amazing because they fired him five years ago for offensive comedy he had done in his past. | ||
| Ladies and gentlemen, it is with great pride and honor that I humbly announce I am a pro skateboarder now. | ||
| That's right. | ||
| Tim Pool is a professional skateboarder. | ||
| I have my own board with my name on it. | ||
| Those are the rules. | ||
| Sorry. | ||
| I hope every single woke crackpot moron skateboarder hater woke idiot can whinge and whine and cry about it all day and night. | ||
| Now, there's something funny here that I actually wanted to talk about in terms of what it means to be a professional skateboarder. | ||
| To those who don't know the skateboard culture and how it really works, the way to be pro is to lick the boot of the establishment. | ||
| Yeah, for real. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| There are a bunch of big companies. | ||
| They have established pros. | ||
| They decide whether you are good enough to be a professional skateboarder or not. | ||
| And anybody who starts a company outside of this or makes money in any other way in skateboarding is not considered pro. | ||
| And the world is tumbling down. | ||
| For these people, as the skateboard industry in the core, whatever they want to call it, no longer exists. | ||
| The reality is, if you can sell a product, you're a professional. | ||
| That's really it. | ||
| Now, I can certainly understand the meritocratic view of, if you are good enough and accepted as true talent, you would be determined as a pro. | ||
| But the world is changing. | ||
| And now the big issue is, do you have influence? | ||
| Do you inspire people? | ||
| And more importantly, can you sell a product? | ||
| And this is causing heads to explode. | ||
| So what ends up happening is, you get this article. | ||
| We love Shredder News. | ||
| Shout out to shredder.news for those that skateboard. | ||
| Skater and journalist Tim Poole turns pro for the boonies. | ||
| Not only confirming I am a pro skateboarder, but I'm in fact a journalist! | ||
| Take that, woke media! | ||
| Um, I have to wonder if these articles are AI-generated. | ||
| So, The Boonies is the name of our new multi-million dollar skateboard project. | ||
| And for those that don't care about skateboarding but have still found your way to this video, I'm glad you did, because this is what we are doing to win a culture war. | ||
| Let me start by saying this. | ||
| It's a two million dollar project. | ||
| I believe very soon we're going to start seeing the construction of phase one of our massive park. | ||
| Videos actually are already up right now. | ||
| You can sort of get an idea. | ||
| If you follow Boonies HQ on YouTube, subscribe, you'll get a general idea of how we're getting the ball rolling. | ||
| There's only like a thousand subscribers so far because the park isn't even totally built yet. | ||
| But Phase 1, of course, will be an indoor, mostly transition-style park. | ||
| There's a couple of ledges, uh, spine ramp, small set of, like, there's stairs, but it's, you know, we'll make do with what we have. | ||
| A really cool wall ride section. | ||
| Phase 1 will begin construction very soon. | ||
| The outdoor section is concrete. | ||
| The general theme we're going for is not so much your standard street-style skating, but there will be what's called an A-frame with a rail and some ledges and, uh, some minor tweaks are coming to this. | ||
| And then, of course, Phase 3 will be what's called a mini-mega. | ||
| That is going to be a very big ramp where people will jump probably I think 10 to 20 feet foot gaps and you're probably like 15-16 feet in the air with a big vertical ramp. | ||
| We are building this massive skate park and it's all part of winning the culture war and taking over. | ||
| So here's why I do this segment. | ||
| For one, I've never really addressed the stuff we're working on in a direct video and I think it's important. | ||
| This is a massive undertaking that will have a tremendous influence on young people and get them more involved in the worldview that we believe is a better and more moral worldview. | ||
| A simple way to explain it is, in our current little skate barn, much much smaller, we flag Gadsden flags. | ||
| There are a bunch of pro skateboarders that I'm a big fan of and some I'm even friends with. | ||
| I remember seeing a video on Instagram for a skateboarder, a professional named Cody McIntyre. | ||
| And he's got a Gadsden flag painted on his mini ramp. | ||
| And I thought to myself, that's exactly what we need. | ||
| Young people who love skateboarding, who want to be physically fit or want to accomplish something and have fun doing it. | ||
| Seeing a positive message associated with ideas that we think are good. | ||
| Freedom. | ||
| Individuality. | ||
| Meritocracy. | ||
| And so where are we today? | ||
| Well, so we made this, uh, we have our own boards. | ||
| Basically, I did not make this board to declare myself a professional skateboarder. | ||
| No, we just made boards because the Boonies is the name of the space and we are going to sell merch for that space. | ||
| I don't call myself a pro t-shirt man because I sell t-shirts with, like, Timcast written on it. | ||
| But it is funny because Shredder News then says he turns pro for the boonies, and it's because I made the joke. | ||
| I posted the picture of the board. | ||
| This is the latest sample we got. | ||
| It is Roberto Jr. | ||
| Rest in peace. | ||
| And the Boonies, and there's Paul Poptop. | ||
| West Virginia, shout out West Virginia! | ||
| And it says, this means I'm a pro skateboarder. | ||
| Sorry, those are the rules. | ||
| Skateboarder, but my phone auto-corrected and then I just send. | ||
| And shout out to Beaver Fleming, to P. Duff, to Al Silverman of course, Wrecking Ball, with their words of encouragement. | ||
| For those that don't know, P Duff, Duffy, legend in the skateboard world. | ||
| And he said, name on your board equals pro. | ||
| Is it everything you've dreamed of? | ||
| I mean, I think I'm fairly good. | ||
| I got some clips up on Instagram. | ||
| I don't know what it means to be pro these days. | ||
| Maybe you'll do a 360 flip lip slide down Hollywood 16. | ||
| Shout out. | ||
| Shout out to Beaver Fleming. | ||
| You got to watch his videos. | ||
| The dude does backflips like 70 feet in the air. | ||
| Sponsored by Public Square. | ||
| So this one's a bit all over the place, but I bring it up because there are so many haters who are outraged and just don't like the stuff that we're doing, the accomplishments we're engaging in. | ||
| And it's unfortunate for them. | ||
| The woke world is in shambles. | ||
| Ain't nobody want to live under your crackpot rules, we just want to skate. | ||
| And so there have been a series of pro skateboarders who have come to hang out at the Timcast Castle and the Boonies Parks and all that. | ||
| And now I see these forums where leftists are like, NO! | ||
| They're hanging out with Tim Pool! | ||
| That sucks for you guys. | ||
| This is a massive investment into the industry. | ||
| And you know what's funny? | ||
| So many people who are in skateboarding are so happy to see this. | ||
| That's how we've got one of the premier construction companies in skateboarding building this park for us. | ||
| A massive infusing of millions of dollars into the skateboard industry is good news. | ||
| There's a website called The Barracks I tweeted about. | ||
| Most people don't know what this is, but they've fallen to hard times. | ||
| Stopped posting for some time, their website briefly went down, and the park has been destroyed and is closed. | ||
| We are taking this opportunity in skateboarding in a similar way that The Daily Wire has taken in Hollywood. | ||
| Producing movies and other entertainment content. | ||
| And I'm not going to pretend like The Daily Wire is the biggest movie producer in the world or Angel Studios, but they're starting to win. | ||
| And skateboarding is certainly not the biggest industry or sports industry, but it does matter. | ||
| It matters that there are young people who care and they will no longer be beholden to woke garbage corporations. | ||
| So they can cry, and they can lie, and they can do everything they want. | ||
| But I got one message for all of the woke crackpots who tried to take over skateboarding and failed rather quickly. | ||
| Money talks and BS walks. | ||
| So cry more. | ||
| Cry more all about it. | ||
| We made some skate videos with some pros. | ||
| Ain't talked nothing about politics at all. | ||
| Just a couple of kickflip backside tailslides and a few blunt slides, and ain't nobody said nothing. | ||
| But these people get all angry because of a political news show that is ancillary to the skate project that we're working on. | ||
| In the meantime, top professional skateboarders of tremendous influence hit us up every day and let us know that they're super excited to be a part of it, to come and skate and hang out. | ||
| And that's the way it's gonna be. | ||
| You see, here's the issue. | ||
| For the longest time, you had woke dominance in various industries. | ||
| People were scared that if they spoke up, they would lose their jobs, lose their sponsorships, and then how are they going to pay the bills? | ||
| And so I was talking to a prominent professional, and I said, I'm going to tell you what we're doing here with this. | ||
| And I'm going to say this to all of you who may not be familiar with skateboarding, but just wanted to learn about this and hear what I had to say. | ||
| I met a pro skateboarder who told me they were scared that if they spoke up, they'd lose their sponsors. | ||
| In fact, I've spoken with like three or four. | ||
| And I said, dude, I get it, but it breaks my heart. | ||
| Getting these private messages where they're like, bro, I agree so much. | ||
| You know, I'm not even super political and I just want to skate, but yeah, the wokeness is crazy. | ||
| And so I was talking to another pro about why I want to do this. | ||
| And I said, the next time someone comes to me, And says, I'm scared to speak up about what's happening to this country and to the world because I will lose a sponsor and be homeless. | ||
| My response is going to be, how would you like to ride for one of our brands? | ||
| We'll not only pay you well, you will be comfortable, well compensated for who you are and what you bring to the table. | ||
| And then you can go to your sponsor, and when they say, we don't like what you're doing with your opinions, you can say, I will drop you in two seconds, because I'm making money through this other company, and then I will tell you what? | ||
| I will publicly post bad things about you for your stance here, and whatever you thought you might lose because of my opinions or my views or who I hang out with, you will lose tenfold when we denounce you. | ||
| I love it. | ||
| Just think about it. | ||
| The people, they've had a stranglehold on all of these institutions, and they're trying to grab so much more, and they're trying to take skateboarding. | ||
| Take skateboarding out of the equation. | ||
| Imagine there was an actor. | ||
| And they said, if you tweet about this issue, we will cut you from the film and you will lose a million bucks. | ||
| And he said, okay, I got an offer from Angel Studios. | ||
| They're going to pay me way more than that to star in their upcoming film, which is already slated to hit a hundred million at the box office. | ||
| They're going to go, whoa, whoa, whoa. | ||
| And then I'll tell you what, when I'm on the red carpet doing these press tours to one of the biggest films in the country, I'm going to say what you did and you will lose even more money. | ||
| That's the name of the game, baby. | ||
| They can't do nothing about it. | ||
| Most people don't care about woke politics when they're trying to do art or music or skating or whatever, but they're being forced into these positions, so we will shut them down. | ||
| We will take over. | ||
| And it's working. | ||
| And we're winning. | ||
| So I see these articles written about me that I find really silly. | ||
| I commented on the post. | ||
| I was like, guys, we made a board for our shop. | ||
| I am not turning myself pro. | ||
| To be fair, though, Taylor Silverman has a skateboard. | ||
| You may know her as one of the female athletes who spoke up against males competing in female sports. | ||
| I have a board. | ||
| Mr. Bocas, our cat, has a board. | ||
| And, uh, we're actually looking to sponsor a few people and give them their own boards. | ||
| Because we just want to sell merch. | ||
| It's not like we're creating a core board company where we're like, we're the best skateboarders in the world, you can ride a board with our name. | ||
| It's that, like, we are going to create an entertaining show with some great skateboarding, and we want to have merch available for those who like our merch. | ||
| And also, Dude, I just gotta tell you, like, pick a sport. | ||
| You know you've got equipment. | ||
| You like your equipment like you like your equipment, you know? | ||
| However, I don't know, your hockey stick has to be a certain kind, your golf club, you like using this one in skateboarding. | ||
| I ride a 32 inch, 8 1⁄2 board, specific, I think 14 1⁄2 wheel base. | ||
| I like my board very specific. | ||
| And that's just that. | ||
| So I'm going to have my own board, and a lot of people else are going to have them as well. | ||
| And we are going to push back. | ||
| What I want to mention as well, in this industry, and with skateboarding, is I mentioned it early on. | ||
| You got Wrecking Ball down here. | ||
| Wrecking Ball, of course, a well-known pro skateboarder. | ||
| It says if you sell one, then you're pro. | ||
| In the world of skateboarding, it's always been this. | ||
| Supposedly this anti-establishment institution. | ||
| Skateboarding, punk rock, fighting with security guards, grinding on ledges and sliding down rails on property you don't own. | ||
| Yeah, punk rock! | ||
| Except, if you want to be pro, it's only when you lick the feet of the people with the money. | ||
| One of the corniest and most pathetic things imaginable. | ||
| And the funny thing is, it is actually the leftist, for the most part, skateboarders who hold this view today. | ||
| So when people are, Tim Pool is such a right-wing chud, he turned himself pro. | ||
| That's so lame. | ||
| Sure. | ||
| Call it right-wing. | ||
| Taking the initiative yourself to start a company and take those risks. | ||
| Yeah, I guess that is right-wing or whatever you want to call it. | ||
| Libertarian. | ||
| The world's changing. | ||
| Social media influencers are building brand, having fun, and becoming substantially more influential as skateboarders than the pros in the industry. | ||
| And they've been crying about it. | ||
| Big YouTubers have been taking over and supplanting what they once had. | ||
| And they're crying. | ||
| No! | ||
| I've always hated the skateboarding industry because they would say to me, Not to me personally, but they'd say, you need to spend $70 on a skateboard with a name on it. | ||
| That way the pro skateboarder can live while skateboarding. | ||
| I get it. | ||
| But for me, I would buy a board shop. | ||
| A skateboard from a local shop with no brand name on it. | ||
| Except for the local shop, probably. | ||
| And it would cost $35. | ||
| Because I did not have the money. | ||
| And then I'd hear pros ragging on people who bought their own cheap blank boards, we call them blanks. | ||
| And they'd say, you gotta support the industry. | ||
| Oh, I gotta work hard and give you a portion of my money so you get to be a pro. | ||
| I just wanna skate, dude. | ||
| I just wanna skate. | ||
| The boards we're planning on selling? | ||
| Hey, look, man. | ||
| You buy it if you wanna buy it. | ||
| My board's probably gonna be, I don't know, might be like 45 bucks if you wanna buy it. | ||
| Which covers our costs. | ||
| Taylor's might be more. | ||
| Because, it is true. | ||
| You support the individual when you buy their board. | ||
| But I've never been about, you have to do that. | ||
| Nah, you need to have fun. | ||
| Be creative. | ||
| There's a reason why we be hanging out with Richie Jackson all the time. | ||
| One of the most creative and unique skateboarders we've ever seen. | ||
| And a lot of skateboarding has become generic cookie cutter, Olympics, all that stuff. | ||
| I'm not a fan. | ||
| I like it. | ||
| I like, you know, when I see a dude do, you know, a nollie flip frontside nose slide. | ||
| You don't know what that means, but, you know. | ||
| I'm like, I love it. | ||
| I love it. | ||
| I'm a big fan. | ||
| I want to learn to do that, too. | ||
| Actually, I can nollie flip frontside nose slide, but haven't done one in a long time. | ||
| I'm old. | ||
| But not down like a big ledge like they're doing. | ||
| But I just want to have fun, be creative, and just laugh. | ||
| And that's what we're doing with the Boonies. | ||
| So I want to give a thank you to everybody who supports our work, who's a member at TimCast.com, because Boonies HQ on YouTube, it's there. | ||
| It has begun. | ||
| Subscribe. | ||
| And we've already budgeted out two million. | ||
| We've already put in probably half that into building what may be the largest East Coast facility. | ||
| Well, I shouldn't say that. | ||
| There are certainly East Coast facilities, and they're big. | ||
| But I think in the end of this, within a few years, it will be. | ||
| Like, our plan is to have the largest East Coast skate facility. | ||
| And for those that are fans of the Barracks, for which I'm a huge fan of the Barracks, I hope to see them back up. | ||
| We need them. | ||
| They do great work, and I love the culture that they help build. | ||
| And I hope to add to that as well, but on the East Coast. | ||
| They're West Coast. | ||
| Hopefully they find a new location. | ||
| Let the haters hate! | ||
| For they have lost. | ||
| I'll leave it there. | ||
| Next segment is coming up tonight at 8 p.m. | ||
| over at youtube.com slash TimCastIRL. |