S5236 - Pollsters Issue DIRE Warning, Democrats Failing So Bad That Republican Red Wave Seems Guaranteed
Pollsters Issue DIRE Warning, Democrats Failing So Bad That Republican Red Wave Seems Guaranteed. Democrats embracing covid lockdowns has angered parents who were outraged schools were closed.
With a year to go before the elections it seems that Republicans have a clear shot at a red wave or red tsunami.
Unless they do something to screw it up it seems like a guaranteed gop 2022 red wave.
Except 80 republicans voted in favor of vaccine tracking so who knows
Vaccine mandates, the economy, inflation, critical race theory, all favor the republicans so we'll see
#Democrats
#Republicans
#2022Midterms
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Pollsters are issuing dire warnings to Democrats that they're doing so poorly policy-wise and poll-wise that a Republican red wave seems all but guaranteed in 2022.
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Now, let's get into that first story.
This next year is going to get absolutely crazy.
It's a midterm election season.
And the Democrats shouldn't panic.
They should go into shock.
So saith a guest essay for the New York Times.
Now this story from about two weeks ago, but we have another story in the New York Times.
A pollster's warning to Democrats.
We have a problem.
Focus groups with Virginia voters led to a bluntly worded memo on what Democrats need to do going into the midterms.
And then we have this story from the Washington Post just the other day.
Democratic midterm fears mount as policies fail to resonate with voters.
I think, uh, you look at the data, you look at 538, look at the polls, the Democrats are in trouble.
They were so hell-bent on winning in 2020, they had to take the presidency, they didn't realize what that meant.
It was a Pyrrhic victory.
Before they defeated Trump, the evil bad orange man, but now they're inheriting COVID.
They've screwed up on it.
Joe Biden is not the man to lead this country.
His policies have led to economic crises, and they try to blame everyone but the Democratic administration.
I want to make sure I don't bury this, because I know the fact checkers will come out and be like, actually, Tim Pool's wrong.
The cost of gas is going up due to demand issues.
Joe Biden shutting down Keystone Joe Biden banning fracking Joe Biden's policies in that regard caused rampant speculation.
Now, I'm not saying he intended for that to happen, but these are the result of his policies.
I'm not saying that in the long run, it's good or bad.
I'm saying stop Trying to shut down what is plainly true.
The cost of energy will have a direct impact on inflation.
Food costs are skyrocketing.
My family is talking about, you know, my sister's got kids and she's saying food prices are going way up.
The people at the grocery store, General Mills announcing they're gonna be increasing prices by 20% and the number one issue For parents, for people.
In the upcoming election is the economy.
Black Americans, the economy.
Women, the economy.
Latinos, the economy.
Men, the economy.
White men, the economy.
Under Donald Trump, in 2019, we had a great economy.
Many people told me it was the best economy they'd ever have.
CNBC's Jim Cramer, who's apparently lost his mind in the past couple of days, said, the greatest numbers of our lives Well, COVID happened, and I certainly think it's fair to blame COVID for a lot of this.
But many of the Democrat policies directly and negatively impacted the economy, and a regular voter can see it.
Take a look at Florida.
No mandates, no vax mandates.
They've got monoclonal antibodies, and they've got, I believe, the lowest rate of COVID cases right now.
Now, these things fluctuate.
These things change.
And there's always some data point someone's trying to grab onto to say this works or didn't work.
But the point is, In the South, leaning towards Florida, things seem to be going way better.
The economy is a booming.
People have there's low rates of COVID.
So for whatever reason, I think Americans are going to see this.
And they're going to say, I don't know for sure what you did, Joe Kamala.
The Democrats, Pelosi, but I can tell you this, whatever Ron DeSantis did seems to be working.
I think it's fair to point out different temperatures in Florida maybe has an impact on COVID, possibly, because there are many red states with high rates of COVID, high COVID cases.
But I think regardless of what your opinion is there, the Democrats are in trouble.
Independents are souring on them.
Joe Biden's approval rating is in the gutter, and I don't think there's anything they can do.
The Republicans will probably win.
But my friends, I don't think the Republicans are here to save you.
I think if you would like to save yourself, you must be active in the primaries for the Republican Party.
Now, for all the complaints about some of these more populist Republican types, these are the people who are better set to serve the American people than the establishment elites who take lobbying money.
Don't care if you're a Democrat.
I don't care if you're a Republican.
The establishment shills will keep the machine a-churning.
So what you've got to do is you've got to vote in the state elections.
You've got to vote in your local elections.
And you've got to vote in the primaries.
And make sure these establishment, financial district types, finance sector, aren't the people taking over.
But for now, I think we do have good news and that the Democrats shouldn't panic.
They should go into shock.
So say at the New York Times.
Well, the Democrats, I don't necessarily think, you know, are very, very different from the Republicans.
The fact is, at least there are some Republicans.
You're Rand Paul's, right?
Thomas Massey, not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but certainly much better.
There's very few anti-establishment Democrats.
Even the leftist Democrats are willing to support the machine.
This, this panic, is good, not great.
I do like the Mises Caucus, and maybe they can pull out some kind of trick, and it would be fantastic if we got a couple of members of Congress in there from the Libertarian Party.
Maybe we could see some big numbers for the Libertarian Party, which could have an impact on how the debates are held.
But I'll tell you this, at the very least, this is some good news.
Pollsters across the board saying there's going to be a red wave come 2022.
But I will just stress before we get in all this news, if you don't get active and vote local, vote state and vote in the primaries, it will be for nothing.
I don't think most Republicans have great policies, but the Free Staters and the Libertarian types who use the Republican Party as their vehicle?
Big fan, for the most part, even if we disagree.
Let's read this.
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Let's read the first story, the more recent one.
A pollster's warning to Democrats.
We have a problem.
Focus groups in Virginia led to a bluntly worded memo on what Democrats need to do going into the midterms.
I want to highlight that feller down in New Jersey who ran against the incumbent Democrat state senator, a trucker who spent $153 and he won.
He barely even campaigned, if at all.
Because as I've said, there are people at this point ready to vote for a ham sandwich over the Democratic candidate.
The New York Times reports Brian Stryker, a Democratic pollster, didn't work for Terry McAuliffe's campaign in the Virginia governor's race.
But Mr. McAuliffe's narrow defeat in a liberal-leaning state alarmed him and most every Democratic political professional.
That defeat also prompted a centrist group, Third Way, to have Mr. Stryker convene focus groups to examine why governor-elect Glenn Youngkin won in a state that President Biden had carried by 10 points last year.
I have maintained this.
There are a lot of people who are going out there saying fraud, fraud, fraud.
They're going out there saying Arizona Audit, PA Audit, Wisconsin, and I'm saying y'all are being distracted.
Y'all are being distracted.
Democrats got that ground game.
They had the shadow campaign to fortify the election.
They changed the rules along with the help of establishment Republicans.
What you need to understand Donald Trump was vilified to a great degree by the media.
I certainly think Trump was better than Joe Biden, but he was a bit of a nasty guy in a lot of ways.
But the reason Trump loses, and there's a lot of reasons, is yes, the establishment lined up against him.
Rules were changed well in advance.
In Pennsylvania, a year before the election, they implemented universal mail-in voting, well before the COVID pandemic, because Republicans didn't like him either.
But I will tell you this, same as I told Steve Bannon.
When I go on Facebook and I see my skateboard friends posting fervently about how they have to vote for Biden, I was like, man, they really did it.
Because these are people that couldn't tell you which way was left or right.
They couldn't tell you the name of a single member of Congress, but boy, were they ready to go out and vote.
That's it.
And that's why I've said I think Ron DeSantis is the better choice for 2024.
But I gotta be honest, at this point, you know, considering that we're still a couple years, several years away from the actual election 2024, man, like I said, I think many people are ready to vote for a ham sandwich over the Democratic Party.
Maybe the truth was that in 2022, people were ready to vote for a ham sandwich over Donald Trump because they did not like him.
When it's not Trump, When it was Youngkin, a Republican, he wins, because Trump views sour to a lot of people.
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They want to say Mr. Stryker drafted and posted a bluntly worded memo with his analysis from
the focus groups and that memo has circulated widely in his party.
The participants hailed from the suburbs of Washington and Richmond and had the same political profile.
Each supported Mr. Biden in 2020 and either voted for Youngkin in November or strongly considered supporting him.
In an interview at the Times, Stryker expanded on what he learned from the voters and the course correction he believes Democrats must take.
He was asked, what was the first thing you told your partners after you got done with the groups?
He said, I was surprised by how dominant education was in this election.
I was also struck by how much it was this place for all these frustrations for the suburban voters, where they could take out their COVID frustrations in one place, education.
A lot of people believe that the core.
Core element that shifted this election towards the Republican Party in Virginia was critical race theory.
I do not believe that is the case.
I certainly believe it played a large role because there were many people who are concerned about this.
But I still believe that critical race theory and critical race praxis are too esoteric for the average person.
What we learned from a lot of the data, not just from Democrat groups, but from other pollsters, independents and conservatives, was that COVID restrictions played a role.
And that's something I think is good for the Republican Party, especially a Ron DeSantis.
If Ron DeSantis implemented his policies at the federal level, it'd be great.
But many people pointed out the president doesn't have that power over the states, you know, Ninth and Tenth Amendment, as it were.
And thus, Ron DeSantis is better served serving Florida, because then he can actually implement statewide policies or enforce them.
So they're going to say.
So if you're advising a Democratic client in 2022, what do you tell them?
He said, I would tell them that we have a problem.
We've got a national branding problem that is probably deeper than a lot of people suspect.
Our party thinks maybe some things we're saying aren't cutting through, but I think it's much deeper than that.
People think we're more focused on social issues than the economy, and the economy is the number one issue right now.
We probably haven't been as focused on the economy as we should be.
I think some of that is voters reading us talking about things that aren't economic issues.
Part of it is just natural reaction, too.
We're in an economy they feel is tough.
It's hard for them to think we've solved problems when they see so many.
Now, this is brilliant on the part of conservatives and Republicans.
Bringing up the critical race theory, pulling Democrats into that fight, while they meanwhile say, Remember Trump?
Remember 2019?
So they can come out and force Democrats to be like, critical race theory, okay, it's a not true, Republicans, and try and push that back.
Meanwhile, the economy is falling apart.
It's getting terrible out there.
Yo, I bought a guitar recently, because we're recording a bunch of songs, and it was expensive.
It was an expensive guitar.
I mean, I'll just tell you, I'll just tell you, it was just shy of a thousand bucks.
And I'm like, this is cool, this is cool.
And then we went into the studio, and I had this really old guitar that I bought for $500 several years ago.
And I was like, this one must be made overseas because it was so much cheaper.
And then I looked, and they were comparable.
And then I realized, I was like, whoa, man.
Comparable guitar models and everything.
And within a few years, the price had doubled.
I don't know if that's true for all guitars, but I was like, I immediately started asking my friends, like, wait, what?
How?
Yo, I went to a guitar shop and the guy told me that if you order a guitar today, you're not going to get it for like a year or longer.
And I was like, get out of here.
He's like, what we got is what we got.
He's like, you know, we can get a lot of stuff in stock, but the supply chain is broken.
We're trying to do studio expansion.
We got more shows we're building.
We're growing fast.
And we got our construction guy being like, yo, I can't get this ductwork stuff done.
I can't get the materials for this.
So I don't know what you want me to do.
And I'm like, close it up.
I'm not kidding.
Who do I blame for this?
Yo, I blame Joe Biden.
Look, man, food prices are going up.
Energy independence was destroyed, was crippled.
Joe Biden's got the southern border wide open.
Gas prices through the roof.
Trucker shortages.
And what is he saying?
Well, he's keeping Fauci on.
Fauci's talking about prepare for the worst.
Omicron is here.
We may have lockdowns.
Joe Biden says we don't need lockdowns for now.
If everyone gets vaccinated, wears their masks, yeah, we get it.
They've not done enough to bring things back.
In fact, they've done enough to actually make things worse.
They're going to say right now.
This guy, a striker, says, the number one issue for women right now is the economy.
The number one issue for black voters is the economy.
The number one issue for Latino voters is the economy.
I'm not advocating for us ignoring social issues, but when we think broadly about voters, they actually all want us talking about the economy and doing things to help them out economically.
I will tell you, you go to a bar, you go to the casino, you go to the restaurant, you look around at these regular people, I'll tell you the one thing they got no idea about, critical race theory, social justice.
Nah, I get it.
I talk about culture war stuff, too, all the time, and it is.
I think social issues are very important.
But I'll tell you the one thing they do know about.
We went out to grab lunch, to grab a dinner, have a meeting with a potential new, um, contractor, I'll say.
And so we're sitting down to have a conversation.
I open the menu and I'm looking at the chicken wings.
And they pull out the menu.
They used a pen to increase the price of chicken and slid it back and I open it up and I see scribblings on it.
And I was like, wow.
You know what that means?
It means the prices went up so quickly they didn't have time to order new menus.
Or it means they're lazy and they don't want to order new menus, if they're only raising the price on chicken.
But the price crea- it was all over the menu and I'm like, it's not hard to print out a piece of paper and get these new menus printed.
No, they needed to make the price updates ASAP.
That's how bad it is.
I think, you go to these restaurants, regular people are gonna see this.
A big part of the problem was that people didn't feel they knew enough about McAuliffe.
Governors in particular during COVID are on TV all the time.
But I want to show you what I think is a very, very important issue here.
The interviewer says, let's come back to schools.
How much of what drove that for Mr. Yunkin is that we're 18 months into COVID and voters are simply fatigued and want someone to blame?
Voters don't think that, in general, a lot of Democrats felt really bad about closing the schools or felt like it was a really negative on people.
I think showing some empathy on that could go a long ways in terms of, yes, closing schools was hard on kids and hard on parents.
You know it.
I know it.
I've seen it.
I don't have kids.
But how many people said, we need schools to be open?
I can't work because my kids are at home and I can't afford a daycare or a nanny.
You know, parents use schools as daycare.
I'm not a fan of that at all.
Sending your kids to institutionalized government learning facilities because you and the wife need to be working?
I like the idea that a parent can actually stay home and only one has to work, but that requires a strong economy.
And, uh, unfortunately, we don't have that.
But wouldn't you have a bad economy because Joe Biden's stutterin' and a stammerin'?
And he can't get anything done?
And then they say, oh, oh, by the way, Democrats are gonna shut your schools down, so send your kids home?
The parents are probably feeling like they're in a vice, just being squeezed out.
The COVID thing, I think, was really important to bring up because of what we're seeing right now with Joe Biden, with Fauci, with what their plans are.
First, something I've shown quite a bit from the Daily Beast, we screwed up.
This is really a three-dose vaccine.
We've got this story from news, which I find laughable.
Democrats disavow lockdowns they embraced under Trump as COVID riots rock Europe.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It really does sound like they're desperate to make it seem like Democrats oppose the lockdowns, but Joe Biden didn't say no lockdowns.
Joe Biden said, for now.
The president said on Monday that his administration would put forward a plan to deal with the new variant, not with shutdowns or lockdowns, but with more widespread vaccinations, boosters, testing, and more.
The best protection against this variant, or any of the variants, is to get fully vaccinated, get the booster, etc., etc.
If people are vaccinated and wear their mask, there's no need for a lockdown.
At the time, Biden said he would do whatever it takes to tackle the spread of the virus.
I would shut it down.
I would listen to the scientists, he told ABC in a joint interview with Kamala Harrison just last year in 2020.
Biden later said those remarks referring to the fact that he would follow the advice, saying, there's going to be no need, in my view, to be able to shut down the whole economy.
Boy, let me tell you, my friends, Joe Biden told us that very same thing at the beginning of this year.
We don't need lockdowns.
We don't need vaccine mandates.
And then what happened?
I mean, we were under lockdown for almost a year and a half, just over a year.
He said, we don't we don't need vaccine mandates.
And now here we are.
Germany just announced Unvaccinated?
You can't.
You can't go out to essential.
You can only go out for essential shopping.
Gotta stay in your house.
You're only allowed contact with two people.
I know, I know.
We're not Germany.
I'm just pointing out the extreme actions being taken by other countries.
Now when it comes to Democrats, how many people are going to trust them?
We can all see Florida and Texas.
Boy, they're free.
Their businesses are open.
How many of these voters run small businesses like a bodega?
And they're looking at their bottom line and they're saying nobody's coming here anymore.
Nobody can come here.
They locked us all down.
How many people in New Jersey were told they couldn't run their business?
There was that lady.
She was shut down by the cops.
So she goes on Facebook and does a live stream of the products in her store and says, if any of you want any of this stuff, just send me a message.
And the police showed up to her closed store and they say, ma'am, you have to stop.
And she said, what, why?
And they were like, you got to close.
And she goes, I am closed.
And they're like, no, you're streaming and trying to sell products.
What does that have to do with COVID?
Regular people get it.
They're gonna beat you down.
And you know what?
Many of these cops, they don't care, so I'm not surprised we're getting abolished the police movement.
Now, on November 17th, from the New York Times, Democrats shouldn't panic, they should go into shock, and boy, does Thomas B. Edsel pull no punches.
The rise of inflation, supply chain shortages, a surge in illegal border crossings, the persistence of COVID, mayhem in Afghanistan, the uproar over critical race theory, all of these developments individually and collectively have taken their toll on Biden and Democratic candidates, so much so that Democrats are now the underdogs going into 2022 and possibly 2024.
Gary Langer, Director of Polling at ABC News, put it this way in an essay published on the network's website.
As things stand, if the midterm elections were today, 51% of registered voters would say they support the Republican candidate in their congressional district.
41% say the Democrat.
That's the biggest lead for Republicans in the 110 ABC Post poll that has asked this question since November 1981.
Good!
But please, vote local, get out there in the primary, and make sure these establishment shills aren't the ones taking over.
The policies of Democrats are not resonating.
You know, I know, because left-leaning Bezos's Washington Post says so.
In their story, they say, Democrats are terrible at messaging, Kirsten Gillibrand said.
According to notes taken by one attendee, it's just a fact.
The admission surprised some attendees for its frankness, but it's a sentiment that is widely shared among other lawmakers, donors, and party leaders.
Well, it's correct.
Democrats are absolutely terrible at messaging.
Fortunately for them, they have their media component, which is just their PR arm.
We know that big mainstream media organizations are just the communications division for the Democratic Party.
I know, I'm being somewhat facetious.
Calm down, mainstream media.
I'm not being literal.
I'm pointing out that many of these institutions will run cover for Joe Biden.
When Joe Biden comes out, They just don't report it.
When Joe Biden comes out and says, we're going to get a pass, pass Medicaid reform.
The articles written by the mainstream press says Biden emphasized passing Medicaid or Medicare reform.
And it's like, show the actual quote.
You don't know what he meant to say.
There's an actual quote for him from Joe Biden, where he said, it is estimated that by the time I'm finished with the speech, 200 million people will die from COVID.
And I'm just like, I don't even know what that's supposed to mean.
Because 200 million people didn't die.
They're not gonna die.
It's just a crazy number.
200 million?
But he said it, and the media covers it up.
They translate for him.
Even conservative media does this because they're like, well, here's what we think he meant.
No, stop.
Show what the guy is saying.
Yeah, they're bad at messaging, but fortunately the media is there to pick up the pieces.
Guapo goes on to say, Beyond a struggle to sell nuts and bolts of legislation, there are deeper fears among Democrats in the party that lack a cohesive and convincing argument to win over voters in next year's election.
Name it.
Name a policy.
Name a Democrat.
Because I go on Twitter and I see the Democratic Socialist types being like, yeah, there's not a single Democrat that's going to give us any progressive policy.
I see these antitypes on Facebook and they're saying, the Democratic Party are corporatist centrists.
And I'm like, they're not centrists, but they're authoritarian corporatists, that's for sure.
I don't know if center really matters.
And I think it's like people call them centrists simply because they're just authoritarian in any capacity.
They're corporatists.
So if the progressives agree the Democrats suck and the populist right agrees the Democrats suck, I think it's fair to say the Democrats don't have any real policy positions other than, like, half measures.
And then we have the fact they don't even have a leading person.
Name the Democrat who's going to be leading the party.
Pete Buttigieg?
Well, apparently Buttigieg has been campaigning with Kamala Harris, so the rumors are out there.
But I'll tell you this.
I think if Trump runs in 2024, I think he'll win.
I don't know for sure, and I'm not saying it's a great chance.
What I mean is, there are a lot of people who hated Donald Trump.
If Trump ran again, I think a lot of these people are going to be like, yo, I'm not making that mistake again.
We saw how bad things got when Trump was out.
Let's just either not vote or vote him back in.
There are a lot of people I know that actually left the country.
Not that I think that's going to have a big effect, but some of these people who are Americans and screaming about Trump still ended up leaving, which was surprising to me.
And I mean it!
Now again, anecdotal.
But I think a lot of people saw how good the economy was in 2019, and they'll see Trump and they'll be like, I'm not gonna tell my friends, but, you know, I'm voting for Trump.
Reminds me of this episode of 30 Rock in the first season where Tina Fey, SNL, you know, writer and comedian, says in the show, like, her character is written this way.
I know it's not real life, but this is interesting.
Tina Fey writes a character who says, I'll tell all my friends I voted for Obama, but I'll really vote for McCain.
Hey guys, Josh Hammer here, the host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer, a podcast for the First Podcast Network.
Look, there are a lot of shows out there that are explaining the political news cycle, what's happening on the Hill, the this, the that.
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We do all of that every single day right here on America on Trial with Josh Hammer.
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I think it's obvious to a lot of people that there are many individuals who lie.
They lie to pollsters, they lie to their friends, and they will vote for Trump.
They won't tell you, though.
That's Trump's phantom vote, the Trump secret voters, because they're scared of the social ramifications.
They're scared of losing their jobs or getting canceled.
So they'll vote for the guy.
Now, I find this next story to be particularly interesting and kind of funny, considering Democrats are the ones who claim to be about social justice.
From The Hill, Ronna McDaniel writes, Yeah, it's true.
And Ronna McDaniel is, she's chair of the GOP, so, you know, certainly she has her bias.
But it is true, we've seen this.
In South Texas, for instance, the border counties turned red, and they're like Latino counties in Miami.
Everybody thought this district in Miami was going to be safe Democrat, and it flipped Republican.
Why?
I mean, come on, these people who have fled Cuba and Venezuela know exactly what's going on with these far leftists.
So it's a good reason to believe Republicans are going to win.
FiveThirtyEight just comes out and says it, which is funny to me.
Why Virginia and New Jersey's elections could suggest a red wave in 2022.
Yeah, it could.
Now we're a year away.
Who knows?
For all we know, a bunch of Republicans come out and do something really dumb.
Like, you know, with all the things people hate about the COVID lockdowns, imagine how stupid the Republican Party would be if, like, they tried to create a vaccine registry or something.
Maybe they'll do something that dumb and then just throw the entire election and hand it over to the Democrats.
80 House Republicans helped pass bill to fund federal vaccination database.
Okay.
Yeah, maybe the Republican Party would do something that stupid.
Okay, they did.
That's why the Republican Party is trash.
I like the Mises Caucus guys.
I hope they can, you know, pull out some victories here and there.
And I'm absolutely willing to vote for any one of these Libertarian guys because they're good dudes.
That's really it.
I don't know about all of them.
I know Dave Smith's a good dude.
I know, I think Michael Malice, he's not running, but you know, Malice is a good friend of the show, a good friend of ours, and he would be the press secretary for Dave Smith, so we're really excited for that.
I'm not saying I think they can win, but I prefer, you know, Mises guys.
I don't agree with them on everything, but if you're gonna be honest with me, and you're gonna try and leave me alone, and I trust you in that regard, I'll give that a shot, right?
The Republicans do things like this.
And that's why I say, get involved in your primaries.
Figure out when these guys are running.
And I'll tell you this, run.
Run for office if you can.
If you want to get involved and you're worried that, you know, if you're in an area that's got a no, you've got a congressperson running unopposed, I don't care if they're Democrat or Republican, run against them.
Just be like, hey, I'm regular Joe, I'm an alternative.
Regular Jane, I'm an alternative.
Because look at what happened with that state senator in New Jersey.
Some trucker dude was like, I don't like this guy, I wanna run.
And they were like, dude, I will take it.
I'm at the point where I think people are ready to say no to the establishment.
You get some regular folks, yo, find me a gas station attendant.
Find me a fast food clerk.
Spend a hundred bucks, get your name on the ballot, stand, you know, stand up on a soapbox in your neighborhood.
AOC ended up winning in New York in this district in the primary, I think with like 15,000 votes.
You get out there in a soapbox and you'd be like, I don't know much about any of this stuff.
I am but a humble Wendy's register attendant.
But I'll tell you this, I ain't playing their game.
Vote for me!
It's better than voting for the machine.
I think a lot of people said that about AOC.
AOC's done a really good job of joining the machine.
The Republicans seem uninterested in, for the most part, standing up to the machine.
They're a part of it, let's be real.
But how amazing would it be if you were that bartender?
One of the stupidest things conservatives say to AOC is that, yeah, she's just a bartender.
And I'm like, that's cool.
Like, that's the one thing I'll give her credit for.
Well, she was an actress.
I don't care, whatever.
If you're a bartender and you say the machine is broken, I'm running, and you win, bravo.
I cheered for AOC when she won.
Not a fan of hers.
I think she's a liar.
But I don't think there's anything wrong with being a bartender.
I think bartending's actually a pretty cool profession.
You ever watch someone make a drink and they do cool tricks where they line up all the glasses and then pour all the alcohol and there's fire and they do tricks and they're spinning the bottle?
Get out of here.
Bartending's cool.
So if you're any job, if you're a plumber, if you're a tradesman, if you take care of lawn work, if you work for a billionaire and you'll flush his toilets for a living, man, get out there, run for office.
Because it'll be the greatest thing to see a wave of regular Americans saying, we the people, for us, by us.
I don't care what your race is, I don't care what your gender is, I don't care what your orientation or identity, challenge the machine.
I don't care if you're left or right.
In fact, leftist populists, please, Primary these Democrats.
I supported a progressive Democrat primarying Nancy Pelosi.
I donated the maximum.
Why?
Because Pelosi is garbage.
Now look, I'm not a fan of the policy of many of these progressive leftists, but I will support them because the machine is crooked and corrupt.
And I'd much prefer populists in any capacity, because we agree on some things I'm happy with.
You know, when people complain about police brutality, when people complain about police overreach, I'm like, dude, I agree with all of that.
And like, I'll give you an example, like, when the police shut down a small business, the left may not be focused on that, but if they're concerned about, you know, improper actions of the state, I'm gonna be like, okay, hey, better than the establishment machine, which is like, appoint our cronies and use it to steal power and maintain power.
I think the biggest mistake Republicans are going to make is here with this with this COVID stuff because we already know that Democratic voters screwed this up by embracing it or ignoring it and seeming callous.
What we need is people to primary the machine.
Each and every one of these incumbents, go to your primary.
I assure you, if you do even a fraction of the campaign work they do, you'll win.
Because you're going to walk up to someone and say, hey, I'm a dude.
I work at a Jiffy Lube.
And I'm sick of the machine.
Like, what are your policy positions?
I gotta be honest.
I don't have strong politics.
I'll learn and I'll do my best, but I'll tell you this, man.
I am sick of the establishment, revolving door, crony capitalist BS.
It's not far left.
It's not far right.
The establishment Republicans and Democrats play the exact same game.
The only difference over the past few years is that the Republicans actually got invaded by Donald Trump.
Bernie Sanders, the left populist.
Trump, the right populist.
They tried to break in.
Trump did it.
Bernie didn't.
The establishment Republicans flocked to the Democratic Party to short their defenses, and the Republicans were able to take some ground.
But regardless, too many Republicans are still establishment shills.
Trash.
Primary them all.
I want to see more AOCs.
I want to see right-wing AOCs.
Look at Lauren Boebert.
She showed up and she was like, yeah, I'm taking my guns and then she ran and she won!
You can do it.
We can make these changes.
I'd love to see Libertarians get in.
Some Libertarian Party members.
I'd love to see that grassroots movement.
I believe we can do it.
I believe that we, this new generation, and the generations that are younger than us, are going to view this very differently, and I believe we can break that broken system.
We can break through the barrier to change the broken system.
This is good news.
Democrats freaking out, because they're the establishment party right now.
I think most of the actual populace leftists, the real ones, the ones that are pro-2A, for instance, recognize the problems with these people, and I think we can sit down and disagree, but the establishment, in my opinion, is the problem.
I like what Kyle Kalinske said.
You guys know Kyle, right?
He's progressive.
He's like, I just want, like, a New Deal Democrat that's not ultra-woke and doesn't care what the media says, and I'm like...
Doesn't sound dissimilar to Donald Trump?
Like, I can roll with that.
Yeah, get the wokeness out of there.
Let's have a conversation.
It's gonna be up to you.
So make sure you are peaceful, persuasive, resourceful.
Make sure you are active in your local elections.
Make sure you are stepping up.
You can run for office and figure it out.
I don't have all the answers for you, man, but it's time that we stood up and say, we're gonna use the beautiful system made by the Founding Fathers to fix this.
I'll leave it there.
Next segment's coming up tonight at 8 p.m.
over at youtube.com slash TimCastIRL.
Thanks for hanging out, and I'll see you all then.
The saga of Jussie Smollett continues, the trial rages on, and now one of the Osindiros
has testified, and boy is it bad for Jussie Smollett.
Dude basically got on the stand and said everything we mostly already knew, that Jussie Smollett
hired him to stage this fake hate crime.
Now we're getting more details about how it went down.
About how on the 25th of, I believe, January, he gets a phone call, and Jussie's like, we gotta meet up on the down low.
And he complained, there was a letter that was sent into the studio that said racial slurs, and they didn't take it seriously, so...
According to The Witness, Jussie Smollett asked the Osindaros to beat him up, rough him up a little bit, and that he would get it all on camera.
The Osindaro brother says he wanted it on camera for media reasons.
Dude was trying to bolster his career.
And I'll tell you this.
Everybody, for the most part, thinks he mailed himself that letter.
So, if you're not familiar with the story, what happened was, apparently a letter got sent to the studio that said a racial and homophobic slur about Smollett, and the studio was like, who cares?
Like, we probably get stuff like this all the time.
Let's be real.
I get inundated with garbage, fake news, smears, trash, emails, lies, all the time.
What am I gonna do?
I'll tell you what I do.
Out here, I get sent death threats.
Mostly.
Probably not real.
But we're armed.
I don't know what else I can do.
Stay off my property.
We got signs.
Don't come here.
I'm not gonna freak out, cry about it, and then put... You know what?
You know what?
I'll tell you this.
During Gamergate, and I mean still very frequently, victimhood is huge.
So, what Jussie Smollett was doing was just a natural emergence from what we've already seen from many of these, you know, woke leftists who, whenever they get a troll tweet, they'll retweet it.
Whenever they get a threat or a nasty comment, they'll post it.
And there are people who have opened DMs on Twitter and then say, People are sending me mean things, like, dude, you have a hundred thousand followers.
You write for Slate.
Okay?
Yes, people don't like you.
Close your DMs.
You know, this is what is mind-blowing to me, because there's no real reason to have open DMs for the most part.
Some people do, it's fine, but there are so many of these journalists that they know they're hated by most people, they allow anyone to send them a private message, and then they screenshot it and post it like, woe is me.
This is what Jussie Smollett tried to do.
He probably saw these people on social media posting this nonsense.
He's like, ooh, I should do this too.
I know, send a fake letter to the studio.
Now, I don't know if he actually sent himself a fake letter or whatever.
The point is, it's so in line with what we've seen from many of these woke sociopaths already.
Sure enough, nobody cared.
And that's when it came to his ace in the hole.
The Osindaro Brothers!
The New York Post reports Jussie Smollett trial witness says actor staged attack, wanted to fake beat him up.
Now there is something that even slipped past me that has been known for some time.
Did you know that Jussie Smollett did not go out for a Subway sandwich?
I'll have to issue this correction based on my reporting yesterday.
Jussie Smollett says he craved eggs at 2 a.m.
He was but a simple man who had an egg craving at 2 a.m.
And when he went to Walgreens, they were closed.
Because Walgreens is not open at 2 a.m.
And so instead, he went to Subway for a sandwich.
This is actually what they've reported.
Finery29 has the story from back in 2019.
Smollett craved eggs at 2 a.m.
He told police he went to Walgreens to buy eggs despite the below-freezing temperatures.
Walgreens was closed, which is why he went to Subway for a tuna sandwich instead.
He claimed he's on the phone with one of the El Sandero brothers.
He initially claimed to be on the phone with only his manager.
He later changed his story to police and stated he also spoke with Ambibola Osundaira, his trainer, over a workout routine for an upcoming music video.
Per the document, Smollett declined to give over his phone records to the police.
So, uh, the picture becomes clear.
Dude goes outside in the morning, calls the guy he paid to stage the hate crime.
The police are like, let me see your phone.
He's like, no, you can't see my phone.
And why?
Because in it, he called the dude he hired as this was going down.
Talk.
About.
Stupid.
It's amazing.
The defense from Jussie Smollett is that the Osundiris are sophisticated criminals who set him up.
Amazing.
Abimbola Osandaro, 28, told jurors, in Chicago's criminal court on day three of his trial, Smollett directed nearly every aspect of the alleged fake attack, from the racial and homophobic slurs him and his brother, Ola Binjo, were to use down to who would throw the punches.
He explained that he wanted me to fake beat him up.
I agreed to do it because, most importantly, I felt indebted to him, to Jesse.
He also got me a stand-in role on Empire, and I also believe that he could help further my acting career.
Talk about scumbaggery.
There are a lot of people that hit me up thinking I can do stuff for them, but yo, it's not how life works.
Now, don't get me wrong.
Getting networking and having connections really can't help.
But the reality is some people have the raw talent and the drive and the power and some people don't and there's no one person who's gonna snap their fingers and just give you anything.
The reality is that if you are to be, I'll say it this way, if you are supposed to be there, you will be.
Some people think that the path to success in these movies and acting and music and YouTube or whatever is simply that someone can give it to you.
It's not true.
It's unfortunately not true.
You have to be good at what you do.
You have to work hard at it.
I think the reality is the Osundaro brothers are not actors.
And these are people who think, I'm gonna make all this money.
It's not how it works.
Jussie Smollett is a good actor.
Not a great actor, but he's good.
And you might say, wait, why are you comp... No, no, no, listen.
I saw his performance when he got interviewed and he was crying.
And so he gets, you know, he's a D-list celebrity.
Apparently he was in the Mighty Ducks, I guess?
And he's on the show, Empire.
And there's a reason why he's a D-lister.
And he was hoping to raise his profile with a publicity stunt.
Because he's like, hey look, I can act, I need more attention, more press.
That's called marketing.
Maybe it would've helped him.
But he basically sacrificed his entire life.
Now what really bothers me is that he exploited these dudes who thought, if we just help out Jussie whatever he needs, he's gonna get us in, man, and then we're actors and...
That's not how it works.
It's just not how it works.
I've worked with agencies before.
Even, I'll tell you this, even if you have the talent, these people just don't care.
They've got a hundred people lined up, and they say, look, literally don't care.
We want the cream of the crop, the person we can sell instantly, and that's easy.
Well, I'll tell you this, a couple agencies I worked with didn't try hard enough, and now they lost that big because if I had signed a contract with these people, I'm glad I didn't.
But my point is, you can succeed if you work hard.
You don't need to sell your soul to a devil like Smollett.
The Osundaro Brothers, you know what?
Far be it from me to tell you you don't got the acting chops.
I'm just saying, you sold out to this guy thinking he was gonna put you up, he was gonna help you get access.
Nah.
That's not how it works.
You just do the work.
Not everybody can make it.
There's only a few spaces at the top.
But some people want to cheat.
I'll tell you this, the Osundara brothers thought they were going to cheat.
Hey, we stage a crime with Jesse Smollett and he'll help us out?
Not alright.
They go to say Osundara and his brother at the center of the sensational long-awaited trial.
About two weeks after Smollett told police he was the victim of a vicious crime on the night of January 2019, the brothers were arrested.
But confessed, the actor paid them $3,500 to stage the attack.
Smollett's team vigorously denies the allegation and claims the men intended to attack him, potentially because they're homophobic.
The crazy thing about it is I'm pretty sure they're gay.
Or at least one of the guys is.
Smollett is facing six counts of felony disorderly conduct.
Osundara, who also worked on the set of Empire, testified that he and Smollett met through a mutual friend in 2017.
And over the next year and a half became extremely close as they spent time together smoking weed, visiting strip clubs, and having sleepovers at the Starz Streeterville High Rise.
They're homophobic?
Yo, Jussie Smollett and this guy were doing drugs and they were having sleepovers?
I don't know if that's what I'd call it if you were adults.
But you know what?
Far be it from me to imply any kind of, you know, adult relationship between the two.
I would call him my brother, Ocendyro testified, adding Smollett would ask him to procure weed, cocaine, and molly for him.
It's kind of sad then to see that this is your brother and you'd sell him out after being involved in this.
Yo, the Ocendyros perpetrated this crime with Jussie Smollett.
This loyalty, I'll say that.
They say around 9 a.m.
on the 25th of January, 2019, Osundaro said he received a curious text message from Smollett asking for his help on the low, and if he was available to meet up face-to-face.
Later that afternoon, he picked Osundaro up from the front seat of the actor's Mercedes-Benz.
The infamous plan was hatched.
First, Smollett asked Osundaro if he could trust him.
And then lamented the studio's response to a disturbing piece of hate mail he claimed he received that showed a stick figure hanging with the words, you will die, black, you know, and then slur.
He talked about how the studio was not taking the mail seriously.
The hate mail he'd received earlier, I was confused, I looked puzzled, and then he explained that he wanted me to fake beat him up.
Smollett asked if Osindaro's brother could help, and then explained his vision for the stunt.
He first told the brothers the specific words he wanted him to use.
Empire, slur, slur, maga, and then gave blow-by-blow instructions.
He wanted me to punch him, but he wanted me to pull the punch so it didn't hurt him, and then he wanted me to tussle and throw him to the ground and give him a bruise.
Then he wanted it to look like I was fighting back.
So I was supposed to give him a chance to fight back and then eventually throw him to the ground and my brother would tie the noose around his neck and pour bleach on him.
The actor told the brothers not to bring their phones in case they dropped them and lost them, and ordered them not to use a rideshare service to prevent any record of their location, should news of the attack get picked up by the press.
Smollett directed Osundaru to send him a phony condolence letter, which he later did, when the alleged hate crime inevitably became front-page news.
Within ten minutes, the plans were laid, and a dress rehearsal was set for two days later, Osundaru told jurors.
From across the room, Smollett wearing a light blue shirt furrowed his brow and watched Ambimbola about the alleged dry run.
From across the room, Smollett, wearing a dark suit, light blue shirt, and burgundy tie, furrowed his brow and watched
him testify.
Ossendairo, dressed in a black turtleneck, a gold chain, and a matching black and gold face covering, hardly flinched
as he delivered more than four hours of testimony.
On Sunday, January 27th, the day before the attack was set to take place, Smollett picked up the two brothers and
brought them to his neighborhood, where he pointed out the exact location he wanted the alleged hoax to go down.
He said that there was going to be a camera to capture the fake attack, that he wanted the camera to capture the fake
attack.
Asked by the special prosecutor, Dan Webb, why he wanted the attack captured, Osindaro testified Smollett wanted to use the camera footage for media.
When the plan was finally carried out around 2 a.m.
on January 29, 2019, the camera Smollett hoped would capture the attack was pointed in another direction.
But just about everything else went according to plan.
The brothers delivered their lines, roughed Smollett up, and fled the area, only to be arrested a little over two weeks later.
Outside the courtroom Wednesday evening, Smollett wore a frown as he exited the building flanked by supporters, and he didn't answer a question asking what he thought about Osindaro's testimony.
His team is slated to begin their cross-examinations Thursday morning.
Now, I jokingly stated, y'all are going to be so embarrassed When they cross-examine the Osindaros and it turns out Jussie Smollett was telling the truth the whole time.
That he was betrayed by the Osindaro brothers, that they are in fact homophobic racists, even though the assumption is that they're also, you know, black and gay, and that they were simply trying to frame Jussie.
I mean, it's possible.
Let's be real for a second.
The story on its face is completely absurd.
And the simple solution, as stated, you know, Occam's Razor, in the absence of evidence, the solution that requires the least amount of assumptions tends to be the correct one, is that Jussie Smollett staged a hate crime.
But I mean, there's also the entire possibility that most of what we know about this did come from the Osindaros.
It could literally be that they are sophisticated criminals.
I mean, it's within the realm of possibility, not that I think it's probable.
But imagine this.
The Osindaro brothers are mad at Jussie.
He's not getting them the roles they want.
He's not helping them the way they think.
They feel like he ignores them.
And so, he's on the phone with them, right?
Yeah, they call him up.
Hey, are you coming out?
Hey, come out.
And then they attack him, they beat him up.
And it could be, now hold on, for real, this is serious.
It could be the Osundiros staged it because they wanted to beat him up.
And they felt like if we put on a MAGA hat, no one will suspect us.
It's possible, right?
Now, I don't think that's the reality.
I don't think that's the truth.
I think Jussie Smollett just staged this because victimhood is power.
Victimhood is money.
And you take a look at the text messages.
You take a look at him paying these guys.
I really doubt he's like, here's $3,500 for personal training.
And they're like, ooh, I'm gonna beat him up.
That makes no sense.
The reality is we live in a victimhood culture.
The reality is that this is the natural evolution of what we have seen over and over again with people pretending to be victims.
Just a Smollett.
He's a dumb guy.
But he's a midwit, you know?
Not a dimwit.
You got the bell curve memes, where the really dumb people and the really smart people, you know, will get something.
I love the meme where it's like the really dumb guy and he's like, looks like he's messed up.
He says, God is real.
Then it shows the really smart guy wearing like the monk outfit.
He says, God is real.
And in the middle, it's a crying guy saying, there's no proof God is real.
It's funny because there's often things that are considered to be discernibly true that a wise individual seems to get and a really dumb person believes but probably doesn't get.
And then you have midwits.
People who are just slightly above average.
Let me explain.
Maybe I'm getting it wrong, but my general understanding is, midwits are not dumb.
They're people who are smart enough to understand a lot of what's happening, but not smart enough to be leaders and actually plan strategically.
Jussie Smollett is a perfect example of this.
He was smart enough to see the system, where he's like, if I'm a victim, they're gonna put me on TV, I'm gonna get a better salary, everyone's gonna try and ask me to come on their shows.
And so, being smart enough to realize he could exploit the system, But not smart enough to know how to pull it off.
That, my friends, is a midwit.
I like to use the example of chickens.
As many of you know, we are in the process of setting up the cameras and everything for our live show, Chicken City.
It's been in the works for a long time, but now we're just about ready to launch.
Chickens like to take dumps wherever they walk.
The funny thing is, they will take dumps right into their water.
They're smart enough to know not to drink water that they have taken a crap into, but they are not smart enough to realize not to crap in their water.
And that, I think, is the perfect example of what Jussie Smollett is.
He's smart enough to realize that being a victim will get him attention, but he's not smart enough to properly pull off a hate crime hoax.
I mean, just think about how stupid his plan is, at least according to the alleged testimony.
Well, first of all, let me just say this.
He could have hired a white guy.
He could have literally hired a white person.
He hired two black guys to attack him in the wee hours of the morning.
He could have done it somewhere where it was away from major metro jurisdictions with massive resources.
He could have done it in a suburb.
He could have said that, you know, he was working and he went out to the suburbs to, you know, meet up with a friend and then some guys attacked him.
I mean, it makes so much more sense.
Trump supporters at two in the morning in downtown Chicago, where it's desolate and people mostly don't live, and he was out to buy eggs and they show up fully masked with a noose and bleach and they recognized him from Empire.
Get out of here!
You know what, man, he could have been like, he could have tweeted something, hey guys, I'm gonna be hanging out here, you know, fans, if you wanna see me, I'll be doing autographs or something.
And then later that night say somebody, you know, Trump could have done it, and man, he could have gotten away with it.
I gotta say, we're lucky he's stupid.
Because if we really fell for this, it would just make everything worse.
And the fact that he is so dumb, at least allegedly dumb, We can see through this.
He's not the only one who's done something like this.
There's books about hate crime hoaxes.
There are whole websites dedicated to showing exposed hate crime hoaxes.
We see college students at universities putting up, you know, writing things on their door, fake graffiti.
There's one story about a church where someone spray-painted some Rachel Slurr, then it turned out it was actually, like, one of the guys from the church, and who was not white, who was just insulting himself.
There's that story.
Remember that guy?
I think he was a football player.
And he opened up two restaurants next to each other.
And then I guess they weren't doing well, so he just totally destroyed them and then spray-painted racial slurs.
And they caught him, I guess.
Look, being a victim pays money.
But we gotta push away from that.
Stay away from that world and call out the bad people who are trying to implement this reality.
But this means resilience, And it means we gotta pull back on empathy.
I know, it sounds like a bummer, doesn't it?
We care about people, that's the problem.
We cared about Jussie Smollett.
No, I mean it.
Look.
When the story first came out, the initial reports, everybody came out and said, oh, it's really sad what happened to this guy.
And many people on the right were just like, I don't believe it, but okay, you know, if it really happened, that's messed up.
His story was insane.
But when we hear, like, you'll hear it from every single person on the right.
They'll say, look, the death threats are bad.
Dave Chappelle, he was speaking at his alma mater.
And all these young people were screaming at him, calling him transphobic and whatever.
And he was like, I don't care!
He's like, I'm gonna say what I want to say.
And then the people were like, we're getting death threats.
And he's like, that's not cool.
That is not okay.
And so here's the problem.
We care.
We don't want you to get death threats.
We don't want you to be attacked.
We don't want violence.
We want peace and harmony.
And so when you say, I'm getting threats, you say, okay, well, that's bad.
No one wants that.
Because we're being honest.
The problem is these people are making up the threats half the time.
Or some degree of the time.
They're just claiming they're getting these death threats and they're not.
Now I'll tell you this.
I don't get them all that often.
I get nasty messages and periodically get threats.
I've had people post pictures of my family.
But I'll tell you this.
I don't complain about it.
I don't do shows where I'm like, they're threatening me again.
If someone lies about me or tries to smear me, depending on the degree, I'll rebut.
You know, like I did the other day.
But typically, I get emails all the time.
I ignore them.
If someone wants to show up to my house, we have a large staff, security, and we're all armed.
I'm not gonna cry about it.
If I'm out on the street and someone cusses me out, I mention it periodically.
You know, like going to New York, people would either... Most people will be like, yo, big fans.
And periodically, you'll get someone be like, F you, Tim Poole!
And I'm like, that's funny, you know.
Whatever.
But these people use it to make money.
They use it to gain power.
And it's funny because if people actually cared about victims, they'd care about the victims of the Black Lives Matter riots.
They don't.
They literally don't.
That's why I think this is evil.
I don't think the left, you know, a lot of these people who are blindly following this stuff are evil.
I think there is an evil.
What I mean is, I've got friends, you know, famous Hollywood actor types, and to see how far they've gone.
They don't care about the people who are straight up killed in the George Floyd riots.
But boy, will they complain and support Jussie Smollett and his ridiculous story.
And I'll try and talk to them.
And I gotta be honest, mostly we don't talk anymore because they've lost the plot.
I'm like, yo, death threats are bad.
Violence is wrong.
Police brutality is wrong.
Police killing innocent people and unarmed people is very wrong.
I would like police reform.
Now, can you at least meet me at a point where we can say the riots are bad?
And they're like, no.
The riots were justified anger, and I'm like, 25 people died, man!
Can you not even meet me there?
And they're like, no.
And they say I am the one who's too far gone, when I'm like, I agree with you on all of these issues about racism and police brutality, but you don't care that 25 people died in those riots.
David Dorn shot in cold blood over a TV, and they don't care at all.
You'll bring it up, and they'll say, Well, yeah, you know, that's bad.
But you don't care about January 6th and Trump's insurrection, and I'm like, oh, I say it's bad all the time.
All the time, I'm like, that was a terrible, really awful thing, and the people who perpetrated it should go to prison.
Well, I... Yeah, spare me, dude.
There are bad people.
That's the reality.
Insurrection.
Jussie Smollett.
What a scumbag.
We'll see how it plays out.
I'll tell you this, though.
I would be surprised if, on cross-examination, it turns out Jussie really was set up, because sure, I guess, but I'm not one for conspiracy theories.
In the absence of evidence, the solution that makes the least amount of assumptions tends to be the correct one, and today, it's Jussie Smollett staged this, so I'll leave it there.
Next segment's coming up at 1 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all then.
Rumble has effectively sold.
And it's funny because I was just talking about this a couple weeks ago with Ian Crossland on TimCast IRL, and we certainly said there's a big risk in Rumble selling, and well, I didn't think it was going to happen in three weeks.
But this is a little bit more complicated than just saying they sold.
What Rumble is doing is they're entering into an agreement with a special acquisition company, which basically allows them to go public so that members of the public can buy shares, which are then used to effectively acquire the company.
The new company now is going to be called Rumble.
But yeah, suffice it to say, basically, I would say it's comparable to them taking big institutional investment money.
Probably the easiest way to put it because unless you really know the nitty-gritty of how the financial stuff works, the only thing you really need to know is that according to Rumble, Their new—actually, let me see if I have this pulled up.
So, that's not it, that's not it.
Do I have it?
Here we go.
I have it right here.
Their new advisors will include Cantor, Fitzgerald & Co, acting as financial and capital markets advisor to CFVI, which is the NASDAQ listing for the new publicly traded RumbleCorp.
And they say Guggenheim Securities LLC is acting as the exclusive financial advisor to Rumble.
Cantor, Fitzgerald & Co.
and Guggenheim Securities served as placement agents for the pipe financing.
Now, there's some good and there's some bad.
And in my opinion, It's not one way or the other.
I don't like this for the most part, but there are good things about it.
I think the easiest way to put it is... I personally feel like y'all got ripped off.
And everyone kept saying, Tim, get on Rumble!
Tim, get on Rumble!
People kept saying, Tim, get on Locals!
Alright, let me break it down for y'all.
First, let me give you the news, and then I'll explain why I think this is really... I think there's a lot of bad here.
A lot of great bad, and the risk is such that I have no interest in Locals or Rumble.
To be fair, the fact that I'm on YouTube, it's also kind of dumb.
So, truth be told, we use Rumble.
I like Rumble as a company.
I'm just saying there's a huge potential downside.
And so, there's some challenges here.
Ultimately, I will say, Locals, net positive.
Rumble, net positive.
The deal where Locals, which is Dave Rubin's version of Patreon, sold to Rumble, net positive.
And Rumble being able to raise hundreds of millions of dollars, they've relocated to Florida, all really good things.
But the risk is just too great.
And in my opinion, I think what they've done is greatly risky, doesn't solve the problems.
However, however...
I'm saying it's not one or the other.
It's both.
While I recognize there are great risks and there's problems, it would be stupid and naive of me to not recognize the power that comes with what Rumble has just done.
So, I'll break this all down.
Suffice it to say, if Rumble does raise this money, they can legit be a major competitor to YouTube, and that is a really good thing.
When Joe Rogan left YouTube to Spotify, It sent a message.
Hey, YouTube, if you keep censoring people, you're gonna lose your top talent, and congratulations, you lost the biggest podcast in the world.
YouTube, of course, has to contend with that fact.
And now that there's an opportunity to go onto Spotify, or, you know, potentially more so as things grow, and with Rumble, YouTube's gonna have to pull back on the censorship to compete.
That is overwhelmingly good.
But we'll get into the issues I see with this, and we'll start by me just breaking down the news here from TimCast.com.
Don't forget, go to TimCast.com, be a member.
If you want to help support our reporting, we've got a ton.
We're hiring more journalists.
We want to do real, legitimate reporting, fact-based, and we don't got quotas.
We don't have click quotas.
Some stories don't get a lot of traffic at all, but we think it's important.
We'll put it up there, and if people don't read it well, that's your choice.
We are mostly funded by you as members.
Here's the story.
CF Acquisition Corp, VI, is a global financial services firm led by Cantor Financial Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Howard W. Lutnick.
CFVI is a special purpose acquisition company, meaning it has no commercial operations and exists only to raise money through an initial public offering.
It exists with the intention of merging with another company, in this case, Rumble.
Typically, SPACs have two years to complete an acquisition, or they are obligated to return their funds to investors.
Lutnick called Rumble the most exciting social media and video distribution platform in the market today.
It is clear Rumble is the new market for innovators, creators, and consumers.
I'm excited to support Rumble and its ability to operate the neutral video platform.
The increasing popularity of the video platform is clear from its Q3 performance.
In August 2021, the platform had 44 million monthly active users.
It closed Quarter 3 with 36 million average monthly active users, a serious surge from last year's 1.6 million.
Now, it's important to point out, I believe I have it here from October 26, Rumbles acquires Locals to help build a bigger creator economy.
I don't know if they're including Locals as numbers in with their new growth numbers.
It is typical of most companies.
To put it bluntly, if my YouTube channel gets a million views per day, And then I hire someone and buy the rights to their work and they also get a million per day.
I wouldn't just say Tim Pool gets a million, I'd say Tim Pool gets two million.
Because we now own the Umbrella Company with everything beneath it.
So I think it's entirely possible.
They say Rumble acquired Locals, a subscription service, in late October.
The move was part of its effort to expand the creator economy and creators maintain unprecedented autonomy over their work.
Launched in 2013, the video distribution platform runs its own infrastructure that the company says are immune to cancel culture.
Rumble's goal is to increase freedom of expression and creativity online.
We are a movement that does not stifle, censor, or punish creativity and believe everyone benefits from access to a neutral network with diverse ideas and opinions, said Chris Pavlovsky, the founder and chief executive officer of Rumble in a statement.
Full disclosure, I know Chris.
Just communicated over email and on the phone.
We use Rumble as our hosting provider, meaning we do put all our videos.
This video will be on Rumble, obviously.
Maybe you're watching it on Rumble.
We're also on a bunch of other platforms because I basically back up all these videos as far and wide as I can.
And TimCastIRL Podcasts use Rumble.
And absolutely, whenever we have a threat of censorship, we specifically upload to Rumble.
Why?
Because we trust the video will be safe there.
Truth be told, there are other platforms—Odyssey, Bitchute—where we also believe they're safe, but Rumble seems to have a good leg up in growing.
There are risks here, and there are things I am not happy with in all of this, and I'll explain.
Let me read a little bit more so you get the full context.
Quote.
We are a movement that does not stifle, censor, or punish creativity.
We are on a mission to restore the internet to its roots by making it free and open once again.
The transaction we announce today will provide Rumble with the additional capital necessary to continue to scale our business and carry out our mission.
As a condition of the deal, Pevlovsky will retain voting control to facilitate the execution of the company's mission at the close of the deal.
The transaction was unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of both Rumble and CFVI.
The combined company will retain the name Rumble.
Rumble shareholders may be able to earn additional shares of the combined company should its stock reach a price of $15 and $17.50 per share.
Which is really great news because it almost actually hit that.
So when it launched today at 10 a.m., it immediately spiked to $14.99.
Or it appears they started it there.
It's dropped off since then.
It's fairly normal.
It's floating around $11 or so.
Typically, SPACs start around $10, so... Seems to be, all in all, some pretty good news.
But I'm gonna tell you my problem with it.
You may have seen my segment with Ian.
I don't know if we had... I believe we did an extended segment when we were in Austin with Michael Malice as well.
But I will just simplify everything for you guys.
Patreon is bad.
Patreon is really bad.
The censorship, I believe, is bad.
And centralization is really bad.
What we need is decentralized technology.
We need to make it so that people cannot be censored.
Period.
So long as you are on someone else's platform, you can be.
And that means there will always be a degree to which you can be censored.
You can buy your own server space, but the ISPs can block you.
You can do a lot of things.
There's always going to be a break in the chain somewhere.
Financial services can shut you down.
But, solely being on YouTube, bad idea.
Centering on Rumble, bad idea.
So, what have I been working on, Ian, as well, is technology through the Yon Foundation, something we started, which is, it's up and running, it's functioning, and we hope to be fundraising as early as January 1st of the next year, and that's mainly due to tax reasons, a new non-profit, it's a 501c3, and the goal is to develop technology so that individuals can create their own social space that networks with the greater space, No one can ban you from the network.
People can choose to block you from their website, but it's kind of like this.
What we're building would be like Patreon.
You buy server space, 50 bucks a month or something, And depending on how many users, how many fans you have, and you install this package, snap of a finger, and you instantly will have a template which functions much like a subscription service.
You'll connect your financial account, whatever it might be, and then people can subscribe to your website, but it also networks your website into the larger network so there's a directory where people can search and find content they like.
Now, on your site, you can say, I don't want this kind of stuff to appear in the search or in the feeds, and it's gone.
You, on your site, will be able to ban whoever you want.
Your website.
Set the rules the way you want.
But that means if I have my own website and you're like, I don't want you on my site, it's one site out of hundreds of millions instead of me being banned from a network of hundreds of millions because a handful of people didn't agree with what I had to say.
That is the solution, period.
And that means you'll probably need, if you're doing videos like this, hosting.
And that means you will need to charge a membership rate that allows you to cover the cost of bandwidth.
But the cost of bandwidth is very cheap relative to the amount of views and members you would have.
If you have 2,000 members and they're each paying you 10 bucks a month, You're getting $20,000 a month.
And at that rate, it might cost you $1,000 a month or something around there for your video hosting on the videos, depending on how many you produce, if you want to do that kind of subscription-only content, but now you've got your own subscription service no one can ban you from.
Basically, that's what we set up with TimCast.com.
Now, the thing with TimCast.com is that we use, you know, WordPress, and we hire developers, and we've got code, and we've got a company that manages it and does all the server stuff for us, so we pay that.
You, as members, help support all of that.
The system works, I'm giving no percentage to anybody, and no one can ban me.
Sure, one of our partner companies can say, we don't want to work with you anymore, but it's no problem, I can go and hire somebody else.
Sure, any one of these companies can cut us off and we'll find a replacement.
Interchangeable parts.
Here's the problem I see with what's happening with Rumble.
Particularly with this acquisition.
First, let's talk about locals.
This, I find, particularly irksome.
I like Dave Rubin.
I know a lot of people are critical of him.
I'm kind of like, whatever, Dave does his thing.
You can do his thing.
Some people like him, some people don't.
And Locals, I think, is a great service.
When Patreon started banning people, they were liars.
And this said to me, initially, the problem with what these companies represent.
Started with Lauren Southern.
She was abruptly banned because she got in a boat in the Mediterranean and she was accused of all sorts of things.
Whether you agree or disagree with what she did is not the point.
The point is that overnight, without notice, Patreon nuked her income.
Basically firing her.
But more importantly, interfering with her business and cutting her off from access to her own subscribers.
That's insane.
I mean, at least give me a download of all the emails of people who signed up and I can email them.
So she made her own website.
Wasn't that difficult.
Took her, I think, only a couple days.
I mean, maybe longer, whatever.
What Patreon said after this, and to me personally, it was a mistake to abruptly cut off our income.
We'll never do it again.
We'll give people a chance.
We will give them warning.
And then it was Carl Benjamin, a friend of mine.
Good, good guy.
And one day he woke up and his income was gone.
And Patreon said, well, a year ago you said a naughty word on a small livestream on YouTube.
And we don't care about the context.
And I said, you lied.
Well, this triggered a major exodus.
Sam Harris, Jordan Peterson, Dave Rubin, many people fled.
There was some talk about Jordan Peterson starting some kind of subscription service with Dave Rubin.
Dave, I guess, didn't do it.
Dave goes on to create Locals.
And the problem I had was I thought Locals was going to be unbannable, decentralized Patreon.
And what bothers me a lot, and it's somewhat personal, is I wish I had the resources and the opportunity to have taken that press, that PR, that moment, to create sustainable, impenetrable, uncensorable internet.
I didn't have that ability.
So instead, at the time, I had my YouTube channel.
It was decently small, to be completely honest.
It was a decent size, but I certainly did not have the resources to get anywhere near this.
Dave was able to launch Locals.
He was able to build it.
And then what started happening is that Dave went around talking to people saying, join my site.
And I was one of those people he asked to join.
And again, I think creating a site where you have the trust of Dave is fantastic.
And if you trust him, then good.
And it's better than say, I don't know, Jack Conte of Patreon.
But let me tell you what Patreon said.
Look, they come to us and say, the financial services, you ban this guy or we will shut down your entire website.
We will shut down financials to all of your creators and your company.
And we have to make a decision, do we ban one person even though we don't want to, or do we shut down the entire company?
And my attitude is, is that a joke?
If a financial service comes to you and you are the biggest platform for subscriptions, I dare you, ban the top podcasts in the world.
Because every single one of them will come out and the amount that you will lose in marketing value from having to recover from that damage would be astronomical and would bankrupt you.
But of course, Patreon is a bunch of cowards.
So my problem is, the same is true for locals.
I guarantee it.
I guarantee you, if one of these naughty men signed up for locals and created one of these accounts, and I mean like the most egregious of egregious, I'm talking about, you know, if they started building up a very egregious conspiracy theory QAnon base and white nationalists, locals absolutely would ban these people.
I have not a doubt in my mind.
Now, speaking with Michael Mouse, he was like, isn't that a good thing?
Like, you should ban those people?
And I was like, I don't think Michael said it that way, but he was like, you want them?
No, no, no, look.
I don't like any of those people.
I don't like the Q stuff.
Obviously, I think we all detest white nationalism and its archaic and ridiculous emotional and race-based thinking is stupid, especially considering my family history.
But I believe in free speech.
I believe that if the public square is being isolated into only private spaces, it doesn't matter what you believe.
What matters is that if you don't defend the rights of people to speak, and if they don't have it, then soon you lose it too.
Now, of course, I trust Dave Rubin more than I would trust Patreon, of course.
But then Dave Rubin sold Rumble!
I'm sorry, sold to Rumble.
And so when I'm talking to these creators, they were like, I have the assurances of Dave, I'm not gonna get censored.
And I was like, what's Dave gonna do now?
He sold to Locals.
And well, hold on, Dave's still involved, and Locals is still Locals.
It's now just a part of the Rumble Info, you know, company.
And I'm like, bro... Someone at that company is gonna be like, Dave, we know you like this guy, but...
The promises made by Dave Rubin are worthless when he sells the company.
And Rumble has acquired Locals.
I don't know for what.
I don't know what Dave's getting.
It doesn't matter.
Dave sold the company and any promise he made to you is now worthless.
So that to me is particularly irksome and defensive.
To come to me and say, we're gonna build this thing and trust me, I'm gonna be here.
It's not gonna happen.
And then what?
Two years later?
Oh, I sold it.
I mean, obviously, Dave still has influence in the company.
Obviously, they don't want to ban certain people because it would hurt them right now as they're trying to grow.
But that brings me to Rumble doing this acquisition.
This SPAC deal.
Let me just say, it is fantastic that they're going to have capital to compete with YouTube.
But if you think for a second that going public is going to protect free speech, you would be wrong.
Going public ensures free speech will go out the window.
Why?
Because shareholders will revolt.
The board will revolt.
Or be forced into a situation where they say, we gotta ban this guy.
It's gonna happen.
I don't think it's possible that it doesn't happen.
Now, there's some defenses.
They say that Chris Pevlovsky, he is going to retain control to ensure the vision of the company.
Let me make sure I have this... Chris Pevlovsky, the founder, said Rumble is designed to do this, yada yada.
Maybe I can just search for the word retain.
Okay, here we go.
Rumble founder and chief executive officer to retain voting control to facilitate execution of Rumble's neutral mission on behalf of stakeholders.
I can simplify this very much for you guys.
I'd like you to think back to the year, I don't know, 2009, 2010.
Vice.com.
What were their documentaries about?
The biggest booty in Brazil, on the ground at riots, um, scopolamine, bulletproof clothing.
Man, talk about fun!
Vice was edgy!
Vice was gross!
Sex, drugs, and rock and roll, baby!
Did you know that when they took investment, Shane Smith said that he would retain control of the company?
Even if he's giving away percentages of the company, he retains voting control.
Fat load of good that did, when the company eventually went woke.
People felt like Vice was young and edgy.
And it was.
And so they buy into it, they read it, they watch it.
But times change, man.
And the people who run the company are like, okay, well, we'll do whatever would make sense to make money.
I do not believe a for-profit centralized venture that is using a SPAC to go public and joining an institutional investment firm is interested in any cultural growth.
I like Rumble.
I like YouTube.
These platforms allow me to speak and reach large audiences.
YouTube more so than anybody else because they dominate the space, which is why it's good that Rumble will compete.
What I don't like is that Rumble, that Locals, that Dave Rubin, that Chris, play it up like they're part of the mission.
They're not.
Now perhaps you may say that right libertarian types have the right view of it.
And perhaps.
My view of this is entirely left libertarian.
I am going to take funds that comes from members on TimCast.com.
I am going to allocate these funds towards giving away free technology.
Why?
I'll be honest with all of you.
I believe in it.
People should have the technology.
They should have the power.
I don't want the power.
I don't want to own it over you.
I don't want to sell it and I never will.
Because it's a non-profit, open source, free software.
I also believe that is the best way for my business to succeed as well.
If more people have a voice and there is more of an open space and censorship is forced back by giving the power, giving the fire from Mount Olympus to the people, then I am less in danger of getting my business shut down.
But if these companies say, we're here to defend your free speech, come on over, baby.
Sign up for us.
Oh, and by the way, we're now funded by institutional investors, or at least working alongside them.
They're now our advisors, and we're going public.
And members of the public don't care about your ideals.
Members of the public who buy the stock are going to say, I don't understand why you don't just ban this guy.
I bought the stock to make money.
It's part of my portfolio.
I understood that you had a tremendous user growth.
Why did they have user growth?
Because they're telling you they're part of a movement.
That can only last so long.
Going public means any one of these big companies, any one of these big firms can start buying up these shares and injecting their influence into Rumble.
And it's only a matter of time before they start saying, well, we'll take down this one, we'll take down that one.
Remember Twitter, the free speech wing of the free speech party?
The solution is not, as Ian said, to create more big tech.
The solution is to create decentralized, open source, free software code so that there can be a hub where you go, you instantly click a button, and it sets you up with your own unbannable website.
No matter how stupid your ideas are, no matter how good your ideas are, you will have a space.
Now, You need servers.
You need hosting.
And we use Rumble for our private hosting.
You can break their rules.
But, because we own the site, we own all of the data, and everyone is there on our site, we can shift key parts, like interchangeable parts in a machine.
I'll put it this way.
Well, I will mention too, Dave says you own your data on Locals, but that was true of Patreon too.
You can't leave someone else's website and take all of the users with you, because many of them won't know.
But, if you have your own site, and you're operating through MoneyExchange.com to pay your membership fees, and then MoneyExchange says we're banning you, all you gotta do is, using the plugin, swap to any other financial transaction service or even a local bank.
All of a sudden, your users don't notice a difference.
It never occurs to them.
They keep on keeping on with staying on your site, and it's that easy.
But if you're on Patreon, you're on Locals, and something happens, yeah, you can get your data.
Patreon allows you to get your data, but how do you make sure that everyone who followed you knows where you're going next?
So look, again, this is good.
Competition is good.
I'm not stupid.
It's good, good, good.
The issue I have is we have this tremendous opportunity to actually do right.
If I had the millions of dollars in VC funding to build out something like that quickly, I would.
But the problem is...
Approaching it from someone... You go to an investor and say, I would like to steal fire from Mount Olympus and deliver it to the people.
And they're going to say, how much will that cost?
Well, it's going to cost, you know, a million, two million bucks for full development.
And they're going to say, and then what do I get out of it?
Well, you'll get the same as everybody else, access to fire.
And they'll say, so I'm spending all this money and getting nothing?
I'll be like, that's the way free software works.
But so long as everybody has the ability to add onto the open source code, add more to it themselves, and create a decentralized blockchain-like network, People won't be censored.
And that's why I think Odyssey is pretty good in a lot of ways, and people have said Odyssey is way better than Rumble.
Because there's no big corporate structure.
Believe whatever you want to believe, I guess.
There's a lot of people who are saying it's a good thing.
Dan Bongino was an investor.
He came out and said it was great.
He didn't give a lot of details on his show.
Me, I think this is all just... It's not net negative, in a sense, but it's not solving the problem.
And so long as people are being rallied to march in the same direction of Big Tech, Patreon, Google, etc., all you've done Is you've taken two steps to the right of YouTube and kept marching forward.
We gotta go the other direction.
Decentralization.
And I wish we could do it faster.
We've got a lot of people volunteering on it.
There is a pre-alpha version of the site that has some functioning capability.
And come January 1st, we've got some potential donors who would like to give money to help fund a project like this.
And these are capitalist dudes.
But we all seem to understand the problem of centralized big tech.
