Western Population Is In Decline, America Gets Bad News
Western Population Is In Decline, Americans Not Having Kids. Past forecasts were favorable for America but a new report from the CDC shows that America has fallen below replacement levels. Similar trends can be seen across Europe and other Western nations.Millennials are not getting married or having kids with some people saying they are a stunted generation. Population decline will have severe economic ramifications, without a young workforce paying taxes into pension and health systems the aging population will be without support.Many countries have looked to immigration in order to off set the population decline but in the long run the issue is our culture. What made the West less likely to have children will absolutely impact people who migrate as well. Some countries, like Japan, have been unable to use migration to offset the decline in population.
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According to a new government report, over the past seven years, year over year, U.S.
fertility has been in decline, and as of today, we are no longer at replacement levels.
What this means is, in the next coming decades, it is likely the U.S.
population will begin to shrink, and this is a threat to the economy.
We've seen similar problems in Japan and many EU nations.
Without new members of the workforce paying taxes, we can't fund our welfare programs and retirement systems.
Thus, many countries are scrambling to find solutions.
One solution?
Bringing in migrants to help offset this decline in population.
And it's worked in some cases, but it's not without its problems.
Another issue is just why aren't people having kids anymore?
And this is something many people are trying to figure out, and there's no one reason.
It's actually multifaceted, and unfortunately, it's actually a paradox.
It may have to do with wealth.
So today, let's take a look at what's going on with this latest report, we'll take a look at the ramifications of population decline, and some of the solutions some countries have tried to implement to save themselves.
But before we get started, please head over to TimCast.com forward slash donate if you'd like to support my work.
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From NBC News, Americans aren't making enough babies to replace ourselves.
Government researchers did not offer an explanation, but experts cited factors including changing economics and fewer teen pregnancies.
They say, for the population to reproduce itself at current numbers, the total fertility rate needs to be 2,100 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age over their lifetime, researchers for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in their report.
But the latest data show a current rate of just 1,765.5 per 1,000, or 16% below the number needed to keep the population stable without additions through immigration.
The total fertility rate has been declining steadily for seven years, but the numbers for 2017 represent the biggest drop in recent history.
The CDC offered no explanation for why the American fertility rate is dropping so precipitously.
Experts say the decline isn't due to a single cause, but rather a combination of several factors, including changing economics, delays in childbirth by women pursuing jobs and education, the greater availability of contraception, and a decline in teen pregnancies.
The trend seen in the United States is also seen in much of the developed world, including Western Europe, said Dr. John Rowe, a professor at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.
One important factor driving this is changing roles of women in society, Rose said.
In general, women are getting married later in life, he explained.
They are leaving the home and launching their families later.
But there's no guarantee that things will work out as planned.
Now before looking into why it is Americans are no longer having children, let's take a look at the economic impacts.
This story from CNN just last May.
Number of children in Japan shrinks to new record low.
The number of children in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year in a row, a sign the country's attempts to offset the country's severely aging population are failing.
As of April 1st, 2018, there were 15.53 million children under the age of 14 in Japan, down 170,000 from the previous year, continuing a downward slide, which started in 1981, according to data released by the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry.
CNN adds, Japan has been struggling with low birth rates for decades,
but unlike many other industrialized countries, which have also seen native populations having fewer
children, it has not been able to make the numbers up with immigrants.
By 2060, the country's population is expected to plummet to 86.74 million from its current total of 126.26 million,
according to a projection by the Japanese Health Ministry.
With fewer workers paying taxes to support a growing silver population
in need of pensions and healthcare services, Japan's economy is facing an unprecedented challenge.
According to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
in 2013, the last year for which data was available, foreigners made up only 1.3% of Japan's population,
compared to 7% for the U.S.
and 16.1% for Estonia.
One thing I've found in almost every article about population decline is how many industrialized nations seek to bring in migrants to offset population decline to try and bolster their economy.
What you have to realize for countries like Japan is that they have a nationalized health service.
With a system like this, you need young people paying taxes.
Young people are less likely to go to the doctor.
Old people are more likely.
Thus, young people essentially subsidize the healthcare of the old.
But without more young people entering the workforce, older folks won't have the money they need to get services from their healthcare system.
And what we're seeing in Japan, and now the US, is not unique.
From the BBC in November.
Remarkable decline in fertility rates.
Saying there has been a remarkable global decline in the number of children women are having, say, researchers.
Their report found fertility rates falls meant nearly half of countries were now facing a baby bust.
Meaning there are insufficient children to maintain their population size.
The researchers said the findings were a huge surprise, and there would be profound consequences for societies with more grandparents than grandchildren.
And one of the main factors that most sources cite as to why fertility is falling, there are fewer deaths in childhood, meaning women have fewer babies, greater access to contraception, and more women in education and work.
In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story.
Now, CNN mentions that Japan is unable to bring in immigrants to help Offset the decline in population.
But in July, Quartz ran this story.
The EU countries that desperately need migrants to avoid shrinkage and those that don't.
They say population trends in EU countries aren't at all consistent.
While Malta, Luxembourg and Sweden saw large increases in population growth, Lithuania, Croatia and Latvia saw their population shrink significantly.
And we have this graph.
It says EU countries with the highest and lowest population growth 2018.
We can see that Malta is number one, Luxembourg, then Sweden, Ireland, and Cyprus.
The divide is largely caused by migration.
Countries in Western Europe, which have previously opened their doors to immigrants, have seen their populations grow steadily in recent years.
But those in Eastern Europe, which have shut their doors, are seeing populations decline.
In fact, the ten countries with the fastest shrinking populations in the world are all in Eastern Europe.
In some of these countries, the population loss is unprecedented in peacetimes.
However, Quartz notes that actually, much of the population increase, except for Ireland, is due to immigration.
And Sweden is of particular note.
We can see that maybe around 80% of their population growth is due to immigration, not a natural increase.
And this is why Sweden's population is growing, and it's why Sweden has been so adamant about bringing in more migrants.
From Reuters in 2016, Sweden needs more immigrants to counter aging population employment agency.
And then just last August from Bloomberg, Sweden's economy is getting a lift from migrants.
Growth is running well above the rest of the EU, testifying to the country's greater success at getting newcomers into labor market.
This whole story has led to a pretty massive cultural rift and debate.
You've got many populist right-wing politicians rising up in Europe rejecting migrants.
For one reason, people are threatened that their culture is now being diluted or going away, because bringing in migrants will bring in different cultures.
You've got one side arguing for the need for multiculturalism, calling the other side racist and bigots, and the other side is embracing traditionalism and saying they want to preserve Western culture and things of that nature.
It's one of the big rifts in the culture war.
As noted by the BBC, in a sense, this is a success story.
Women are getting paid more equally, they're more likely to go to college and get jobs, they're effectively launching their own careers, becoming more successful, and thus are less likely to have families.
That's something that I can see in almost every single story.
But there is an interesting paradox.
Something happens when the GDP of a nation goes up, fertility goes down.
But then there's also an inverse problem to where if people can't afford to have kids, they won't do that either.
The New York Times ran this story in July.
Americans are having fewer babies. They told us why.
Women have more options for one.
But a new poll also shows that financial insecurity is altering a generation's choices.
They say Americans are having fewer babies.
At first, researchers thought the declining fertility rate was because of the recession.
But it kept falling even as the economy recovered.
Now it has reached a record low for the second consecutive year.
Because the fertility rate subtly shapes many major issues of the day, including immigration, education, housing, the labor supply, the social safety net, and support for working families, there's a lot of concern about why today's young adults aren't having as many children.
So we asked them.
Wanting more leisure time and personal freedom?
Not having a partner yet?
Not being able to afford child care costs?
These were the top reasons young adults gave for not wanting or not being sure they wanted children, according to a new survey conducted by Morning Consult for the New York Times.
The top reason cited in the survey is that child care is too expensive, 64%.
Some people said they wanted more time for the children they already have, so that actually shows they are having children.
Worried about the economy once again.
Not having enough money.
Can't afford more children.
It would seem that in the top five, excluding that they wanted more time, are financial issues.
I found that survey really interesting because of something called the Demographic Economic Paradox.
This is an issue having to do with income infertility.
On Wikipedia, they show this chart where you can see that lower GDP nations are much more likely to have more children.
And the better the GDP is per capita, the less likely they are to have children.
This is essentially the paradox.
They say, the inverse relationship between income and fertility has been termed a demographic economic paradox.
Thomas Malthus, in his book An Essay on the Principle of Population, proposed that greater means, higher income, would enable the production of more offspring, a higher fertility rate.
However, roughly speaking, nations or subpopulations with higher GDP per capita are observed to have a lower fertility rate.
This is the paradox.
Malthus held that in order to prevent widespread suffering from famine, for example, what he called moral restraint, which included abstinence, was required.
The demographic-economic paradox suggests that reproductive restraint arises naturally as a consequence of economic progress.
Scientists called it the demographic-economic paradox.
If you could afford more children, then why would you not have them?
They say overall, women are educated and therefore decide to pursue a career instead of having many children.
Economic growth results in greater spending power in the areas of health, housing, nutrition, and education, which further reduces the fertility rate.
And I've known about that concept for quite some time, because there's been many studies and many talks given about it, where you can see that in certain countries where the GDP is really low, these families tend to be massive, with like 12 kids.
And when you come to the US and Western Europe, the fertility rate is actually declining and below replacement levels.
It's really interesting to see that then, when you look at the survey from the New York Times, and people say they can't afford to have kids.
Because typically, when you go on a forum, when you go on Reddit, when you look at the comments, people say, I just can't afford to have a family.
Which is actually quite interesting, because it would suggest that there's essentially just a downward spiral of lowering fertility rates once a certain level of GDP or technological advancement is reached.
If people aren't going to have kids when they're rich, and they can't have kids when they're poor, something happens in society where you just end up with less families, and thus certain economic systems can't be sustained.
I find it interesting how so many sources say There's a delay in childbirth by women pursuing jobs.
This is a fact.
And we know, according to other sources, that economic issues arise from a drop in fertility.
And it would seem that there is no real solution.
If you believe in individual liberties, then you will support a woman's right to work and be educated and support herself.
But then you also recognize that there's going to be economic strife caused by a drop in fertility, and these countries just try to bring in more migrants.
But there's nothing guaranteeing that over time the migrants will also continue to have children either.
The same issue will probably affect them.
In the West, there is a legal right to equality for all genders.
It doesn't matter if you're conservative or religious or wherever you come from.
If you adhere to the rules of this country, then you're gonna see similar things.
Now there's this huge argument about crime rates and you've got people on the right saying it's really really bad, people on the left saying it's not really that bad.
I don't want to talk about that.
I simply pulled up some mainstream sources that have said these things, and then I presented them to you, because I don't know what the solutions are.
But it seems like we may just be watching the dominoes fall over, and there's nothing we can really do to stop it.
It's just the way it's gonna be.
But maybe humans will find a solution, things will change, and we'll probably figure it out.
Who knows?
Global economic collapse and the complete apocalypse, which I really doubt, but I guess we'll see what happens.
You can let me know what you think in the comments below.
We'll keep the conversation going.
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