Democrats Will Take the House and the GOP Sees Historic Senate Win. Not since Kennedy has a President's party been able to gain this many seats in the Senate and hold a majority.Though the Democrats should be very happy with their winning the House majority their gain was actually very slight. As of the making of this video Democrats only gained 27 seats. They needed 23 to gain a majority.If this was a referendum on Donald Trump I would think that he passed with flying colors. Winning more Senate seats and Holding ground in governorships.
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A couple days ago, I predicted the Republicans would blow out the Democrats and take everything, and I was wrong.
The predictions seemed to be mostly correct.
The Democrats were able to squeeze by with just a small House majority, and the Republicans retained control of the Senate.
But actually, Republicans gained some Senate seats.
Republicans were also able to defend several governorships across the country.
So in my opinion, it looks like with as vulnerable as the Republicans were, they actually held their own very well.
And I would say there's good news for both sides, but I'm leaning more towards the Republicans definitely are going to be more excited about this.
A lot of people online are saying the Democrats didn't do good enough.
Andrew Gillum of Florida did not win.
Beto O'Rourke did not win.
And as of right now, it looks like Stacey Abrams also did not win.
So it really does seem like a very tiny victory across the board for the Republicans, especially when we look at the historical context.
So today, let's take a look at the results and talk about what this really means.
Did the Democrats win this?
Or did the Republicans win this?
And as I said, I think this leans a little bit in favor of the Republicans, but let me show you the data.
But before we get started, please head over to patreon.com forward slash TimCast if you'd like to support my work.
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As of the filming of this video, I'm filming it around noon, we can see that the Democrats have gained 21 seats in the House, and they will take control.
And this is good news for Democrats, but they're not taking control by very much.
They needed 23 seats to gain control, and they only gained 27 so far.
So it looks like it's not that strong of a majority, but it is absolutely good news for Democrats.
Now in the Senate, really bad news for Democrats.
Republicans so far have gained two Senate seats.
And as of the filming of this video, we can see Republicans have guaranteed 51 seats to Democrats 45.
There are still some races that are too close to call.
Maybe by the time you watch this, it will actually be updated.
But as we can see right now, Tester in Montana, he's leading by just a little bit.
We can see McSally and Scott in Florida and Arizona are actually leading by just a little bit.
So it looks like the Republicans might actually end up With 53 seats in the Senate, maybe more.
Now I want to point something out that's really, really important.
All of the battleground Democrats so far who voted against confirming Brett Kavanaugh have been outed.
Manchin, for instance, the Democrat, he voted in favor of Kavanaugh and he was re-elected.
The others are out.
Right now, Tester has a small lead.
He also voted against Kavanaugh.
He might actually win.
So it may not be absolute, but for the most part, it looks like Brett Kavanaugh did play a huge role in how people voted and what that meant for the Democrats.
So perhaps the strategy the Democrats had in going up against Kavanaugh, especially now that we learned many of these accusations against him were false, it was a bad strategy and it may have hurt them very much so in the Senate.
But let's check out the governorships.
As of right now, it looks like the Democrats gained seven seats when it comes to governorships across the country.
However, the Republicans still maintain the majority as of right now, and that is potentially good news for Republicans as it looks like they're likely going to retain even more seats.
However, They lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
And these are really important states for Donald Trump and the Democrats coming into 2020, especially when we look at how they voted in the 2016 election.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were all for Trump, by small margins.
And if they're now voting for a Democratic governor, these states might swing left in 2020.
So this is really important, and you should pay attention to this going into 2020.
So look, you've seen that data, but I think it's fair to say that this is a slight victory for Republicans.
Look, the Democrats did gain some space.
They are taking the House majority, and that's extremely important, and it's extremely good for the Democrats.
However, historically, it looks like the Democrats were barely able to maintain a historic trend.
In the first two years of every presidency, they tend to lose seats in the House.
It's normal.
But the trend is really bad for Democrats and typically good for Republicans over the past couple decades.
Let's look at 2010, for instance.
Two years into Barack Obama's first term, the Democratic Party suffered massive defeats in many national and state-level elections, with many seats switching to Republican Party control.
Although the president's party usually loses congressional, statewide, and local seats in the midterm elections, the 20-term midterm election season featured some of the biggest losses since the Great Depression.
The Republican Party gained 63 seats in the U.S.
House of Representatives, recapturing the majority and making it the largest seat change since 1948, and the largest for any midterm election since 1938 midterm elections.
The Republicans also gained 6 seats in the U.S.
Senate, expanding its minority, and also gained 680 seats in state legislative races.
Compare that to now.
In 2010, first two years of Obama, the Republicans swung 63 seats.
The Democrats in the first two years of Trump have only swung so far, 27, maybe more, but it's still going to be a lot less.
And we can actually go back to 2002, which is a special circumstance because of 9-11, and we can go back to 1994 and see there is a similar trend, and the Democrats haven't fared that well.
In 2002, the elections were held just a little bit under 14 months after 9-11, thus the elections were heavily overshadowed by the War on Terror, the impending war with Iraq, and the early 2000s recession.
and the sudden death of Democratic Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone about one week before the election.
These elections marked only the third time since the Civil War that the president's party gained seats in a midterm election, the first being 1934-1998, and the first time that this has happened under a Republican president.
These elections were the second consecutive midterm elections held in a president's first term, where Republicans netted a gain in both houses of Congress.
They say the Republicans picked up net gains of two Senate seats and House seats.
That means in the first two years of George W. Bush, the Republicans made gains.
The president's party made gains.
That is not the historic trend.
However, 9-11 did happen, so that is a special circumstance.
But we can go back to the first two years of Bill Clinton and see what happened there, too.
They called this the Republican Revolution.
Because 54 seats swung from Democrat to Republican, we can see that when the Democrats are in power, the Republicans swing massive gains.
But as of right now, they only gained about 27 so far.
The Republicans are going to lose control of the House for sure, but they've gained more seats in the Senate.
And that hasn't happened, my understanding, since John F. Kennedy.
So there are still some historic wins for the Republicans in this midterm.
It's not all good news for Democrats.
So when you consider that Republicans will maintain a majority in governorships, they actually won some Senate seats, and these big celebrity endorsement challengers lost, it sounds like, even with the historic record, the Republicans have squeaked by just a tiny victory.
They were defending a lot more territory.
There were historic retirements across the House, and this was really bad for Republicans.
So this should have been a bigger gain for Democrats.
The Democrats were able to take some victories, but it wasn't that large.
Ultimately, this is still relatively good news for the Republicans, because they honestly expected to lose a lot more.
The forecast from 538 said about 40 seats would flip to the Democrats, and so far only 27.
So they've just narrowly, by about four seats, taken that majority.
But there's also some other issues I want to point out.
As I mentioned with Brett Kavanaugh, that seemed to play a role in how people voted.
But what bothers me about a lot of this, and this is kind of a sidestep, we'll clear the air now with the midterms, I want to just bring up, you know, before I finish off, a kind of hypocrisy that bothers me about the Democrats.
You know, there's a lot of people talking about the historic gains made by House members.
There's more women running, there's the first Muslim candidate, the first openly gay governor.
It's a lot of big historic wins.
But as much as they like to tout identity, there were Republican people of color who lost to white people.
So yes, progressives and the left were also willing to say no to some people of color, and yes to some traditional incumbent white people.
I don't think identity is the key factor in why many of these people got elected.
I think politics really did play a big role in this.
But when we look at the attitude many of these people had about Brett Kavanaugh, saying that, listen, Brett Kavanaugh, it was a job interview and he was accused, he shouldn't get the job.
Well, then I'd have to ask questions about some of the people who were actually confirmed, like Bob Menendez and Keith Ellison.
Bob Menendez wins Senate race in New Jersey, beating back a challenge from Hugin.
And for those that are not familiar, one of the biggest attacks against him was that there was a claim that he flew to the Dominican Republic to engage in adult activities with underage women.
And although he denies it, and it was never proven, according to the DOJ, there was some corroborating evidence.
He was never indicted on these charges, but he was indicted for fraud.
And he was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee for accepting bribes.
He was still voted in by Democrats.
So if the idea is we have to believe all women, they were still willing to vote in Bob Menendez.
We also have Keith Ellison winning the Attorney General race, even though he was accused by a woman of abusing her.
And many people pushed the story.
It didn't make it far and wide in the press.
But they were absolutely still willing to vote for these two candidates.
And this is one of the biggest issues I take with the growth of identitarianism in American politics.
It seems like the people who are campaigning on identity don't actually believe what they're saying.
Because as much as they'd like to say believe all women, they're absolutely willing to vote in Keith Ellison, and they're absolutely willing to vote in Bob Menendez.
And I think it's a damn shame.
Look, I believe you are innocent until proven guilty.
But by their own standard on the left, there is less of a burden of proof on them as the accused.
You can't say that Brett Kavanaugh shouldn't get the job simply because of an accusation.
Because it's just a job interview.
But then think Bob Menendez should win.
Yesterday on the Young Turks, when they called the Senate race in New Jersey for Bob Menendez, Cenk Uygur said, thank God.
And my question is, why?
He has been credibly accused.
The DOJ believes they have corroborating evidence, and the women who are accusing him only recanted because some people believe they were paid off.
I don't know the full story, so don't quote me.
You can check it out.
Suffice it to say, there are legitimate accusations against Bob Menendez, fraud allegations, and an admonishment from the Senate Ethics Committee.
But the Young Turks were happy, saying, thank God that he won.
Where is the standard here?
If you're upset with Brett Kavanaugh because 36 years ago a woman claimed that he may have done something at a party and he shouldn't get confirmed because of that, you've got an actual criminal trial against Bob Menendez and Keith Ellison is currently undergoing scrutiny and a controversy around the abuse allegations from some woman.
Now that the Democrats have a House majority, there's expectations of subpoenas and investigations and people are believing they're going to investigate, investigate, investigate.
That's what they're all saying.
But some people have asked, Democrats simply legislate and hope that the Republicans and Democrats are willing to work together and that this won't be a roadblock.
Suffice it to say, many people believe this will be a huge waste of time, nothing's going to get done, and the Democrats and the Republicans in the House and the Senate are going to clash, and it's going to be two years of nothing happening.
The important thing to remember, though, is that if this was a referendum on Donald Trump, I believe it shows that the nation, for the most part, is happy with what he's doing.
Because when it comes to Senate races and governorships, the Republicans were able to maintain their majority.
Although they lost in the smaller districts around the country, that was to be expected.
That's a historical trend.
At the nation level, when it comes to the states, The senators became Republican, more so.
The governors held their ground.
And I think that's overwhelmingly good news for the Republicans as they're starting to look to 2020.
But at the same time, it's still good news for the Democrats.
It's not all bad news.
The Democrats made some gains.
They won Michigan, they won Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
And that can be huge for them going into 2020.
So comment below and let me know what you think.
And we'll keep the conversation going.
How do you feel about all this?
Do you think this was an over- You think this was mostly a win for the Republicans?
More so for the Democrats?
As I mentioned, I think this is just a tiny victory from the Republicans because they've gained in the Senate and the Democrats only gained a small lead.
But you comment below.
Let me know what you think.
We'll keep the conversation going.
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