Democrat Blue Wave Is Failing, Republicans Gain In Midterm Polls
Democrats "Blue Wave" Is Failing, Republicans Make Gains.Polls are showing that republicans are making gains in the Senate and have a chance to maintain a majority in the house. For all the talk leading up to the mid terms from the democratic party about a blue wave there is very little to show for it. New data from NBC News shows that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in early voting.Have the Democrats dropped the ball? I think so, and their failure to be civil and embrace sound policy is likely why.
Support the show (http://timcast.com/donate)
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It's coming from reports from NBC News showing that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in early voting.
It's complicated.
We'll talk about it.
But also that there are several other news stories, especially from The Hill, talking about Democrats losing hope for a blue wave.
It's looking like they're not going to make that many gains.
They may still win the House, but they might actually lose some in the Senate.
The blue wave isn't here.
Before I talk about the news, I want to mention something.
People say to me, Tim, you're ragging on the Democrats too much.
And what I want to say to that is, for instance, the Elizabeth Warren story.
CNN ragged on Elizabeth Warren.
BuzzFeed News ragged on Elizabeth Warren.
My reporting and the things I talk about aren't coming from something I just made up.
I'm reading the news every day, and I can see time and time again what the Democrats are doing is not working.
And people get upset that I'm pointing that out, and that's the biggest problem the Democrats face.
The refusal to self-reflect.
Is embracing incivility working?
No.
We know it's not.
Did the progressive push with people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez work?
No.
According to The Economist, 71 of 78 primaries were lost by the progressives.
Is there a blue wave?
Unfortunately, there may not be.
And this is not coming from me.
It's coming from data and other mainstream sources.
So today, let's take a look at what's going on with the blue wave, and then I'm going to talk about why I think the Democrats are failing, and I've got reasons to back it up.
But before we get started, please head over to Patreon.com forward slash TimCast if you like the work I do.
Patrons are the backbone of the content I create, so if you want to see more videos like this, please go to Patreon.com forward slash TimCast to help support my work.
First, from NBC News, Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds.
The data suggests enthusiasm among early GOP voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a quote, blue wave in the midterms.
They start by asking, is the blue wave turning purple?
Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched dates, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.
GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas, the data showed.
Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.
They say key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber.
The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a blue wave in next month's midterm elections.
Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting.
So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.
And they show this graph where we can see that Republicans are dominating early voting in almost every state except Nevada.
Now, there are many people who are upset with this data and the story about NBC News.
They're saying, look, Republicans typically dominate by absentee ballots.
This doesn't prove anything.
But what NBC News says is that Democrats have an advantage with in-person early voting, Republicans have an advantage with absentee ballots, but they're talking about Florida, where early voting has not begun.
There was a story from NPR following the Kavanaugh hearings, saying that enthusiasm among Republicans following Kavanaugh spiked.
We could see this reflected in RealClearPolitics aggregate polling data, showing a spike in the likelihood Republicans will win House seats.
I can't say for sure if the spike is caused by the Kavanaugh hearings, but there is data to suggest that there was a spike because of it.
We know the enthusiasm gap closed because of Kavanaugh hearings, if you trust NPR.
And we can see that since the beginning of October, the likelihood of Republicans taking House seats has gone up.
It faltered a little bit, but it is spiking once again.
Right now, as of today, RealClearPolitics believes Republicans will take 200, and Democrats will take 205, and there are 30 toss-ups.
Now let's talk about this blue wave.
We can see that Republicans are outpacing Democrats.
We can see that the gap is closing.
And we can see this story from The Hill just yesterday.
Dems lower expectations for blue wave.
Democrats are tamping down expectations for a blue wave.
Two weeks before the midterm elections as key races in the House tighten and winning back the Senate majority looks increasingly out of reach.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said on CNN's New Day that he doesn't use the term blue wave and added that he's always thought this year's races would be close.
Separately, Senator Bernie Sanders, who's campaigning for a Democratic candidate, said he doesn't believe in a blue wave.
I know a lot of people talk about this blue wave.
I don't believe it, Sanders told Rising.
Hill TV co-star Crystal Ball.
I happen to think that on election night you're going to find a very close situation and maybe a handful of votes determining whether Democrats are gaining control of the House, he said.
The remarks by Perez and Sanders could be seen as a way of motivating the Democratic base.
Many Democrats are convinced the 2016 presidential race was lost in part because Democratic voters didn't show up.
Perhaps because they thought there was little chance that Republican Donald Trump would win.
So that argument makes sense.
Maybe the reason Bernie Sanders and Tom Perez are saying this is because they don't want people to get cocky.
They want them to feel like they have to fight to survive.
But there's an inverse argument.
When you tell people they're going to lose, maybe they lose hope and just say, what's the point?
It can go both ways.
You tell them they're going to win, they're going to say, hey, what do I need to do?
We're going to win anyway.
You tell them they're going to lose, and they say, well, we're going to lose anyway.
You don't know how it will impact people.
When Bernie Sanders says he thinks it's going to be close, he doesn't believe in a blue wave.
It's interesting how this conversation has evolved from people screaming the midterms will be a blue wave and the Republicans are going to regret it.
And here we are looking at early voting data showing Republicans are outpacing Democrats.
We're hearing independents like Sanders and also Democrats saying maybe there won't be a blue wave.
But there's also data to suggest the Democrats might actually lose in the Senate more than people thought.
Once again, from the Hill, Democrats slide in the battle for Senate.
Republicans have seen a bump in the polls in several key races since Labor Day.
They believe momentum has flipped to their party since the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh polarized the electorate, hurting Democrats running for re-election in states where President Trump is popular.
Two states where Democrats had hopes of pulling major upsets, Texas and Tennessee, have moved in favor of Republicans.
Races in Nevada and Arizona, two other states where Democrats had hoped to make gains, remain tight.
But Republicans feel more confident about their candidates.
Meanwhile, the tide has moved against Democratic candidates in a couple of states that Trump won by double digits in 2016.
In North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp has fallen behind double digits.
And in Montana, Senator Jon Tester, who seemed poised for a victory a month ago, has seen his race tighten amid attacks by the president.
I met someone at Politicon who said that, as someone who finds himself far left but does watch my content, he was a little frustrated that I put out so many videos criticizing the Democrats.
But then he said, you know what?
I watched them and realized you were right.
Once you get over that emotional hurdle, yeah, I'm not making things up, guys.
Listen.
I'm not doing these videos because I just hate the Democrats.
I will say I'm absolutely frustrated with them over their failure to be good leaders, their failure to embrace real policy, their embracing of incivility.
There's a lot of things I think the Democrats are doing wrong.
It doesn't mean the Republicans are getting a free pass.
But the Republicans are doing what they always do, and the Democrats are just losing.
Elizabeth Warren's DNA test?
Are you kidding me?
This idea of a blue wave, it doesn't seem like it's going to happen.
I feel like, you know, the polls might be wrong.
It's a video I made a couple days ago.
But I'm not sitting here just trying to find a way to convince people the Democrats are losers.
I'm reading The Hill.
I'm reading NBC.
When I criticize Elizabeth Warren, it's not because I just don't like her.
It's because I read BuzzFeed.
The editor-in-chief, Ben Smith, put out a story saying, this is how Trump will dominate the Democratic primaries.
And I said, that's a really interesting point.
I didn't just make it up.
I didn't just decide because I don't like her, I'm going to talk about this.
There are mainstream news stories across the board talking about how the Democrats are screwing up.
And I'm seeing it.
And I'm seeing the polls.
When NPR says Brett Kavanaugh's hearing galvanized the Republican Party, why would I disagree with NPR?
When The Hill says the fight for Brett Kavanaugh, it polarized the electorate and it bolstered Republicans.
Why would I say The Hill is wrong?
These are mainstream news sources.
These are mainstream political sources.
If you don't want to hear that Democrats are doing bad, plug your ears.
It's not just coming from me, it's coming from NBC, Buzzfeed, Vox even said that Democrats aren't reaching out to Latinos.
It is not a unique opinion among people like me that Democrats are doing bad.
Outside of the political realm, I think there is a certain cultural problem we're seeing among Democrats, and that's the inability to denounce incivility.
The inability to highlight these acts of violence that we've seen across the board.
I tweeted, I feel like the modern left is pushing me away.
This was basically because, for those that aren't familiar, when I approached Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks and tried to have a polite conversation about something they did that I disagreed with, he snapped on me.
He swore at me.
He called me a Trump supporter.
He just went off.
And I was pissed.
And I said, this is it.
This is what happens when I try to talk to these people.
They yell at me.
In response to that tweet, I got several thousand responses.
Many conservatives were pleading with me to vote Republican, saying, Tim, give it a chance, listen to what we have to say, let's talk about our disagreements.
And then I had people on the left insulting me and mocking me and calling me a snowflake, and just, that's what I saw.
Was it every, you know, left-leaning person insulting me?
No, of course not.
There were a couple good people.
But the most prominent messages from verified users were that I was stupid, that I was just playing the victim, that I was only doing this to make money, I was trying to convince conservatives that I'm a walkaway or something, when I was genuinely frustrated because Cenk Uygur yelled at me in front of a bunch of people, and it got filmed, and I'm pissed off, and I said, you know, this is what I feel like.
And the response from Republicans was, there there, buddy, let me buy you a beer.
Some Republicans insulted me and made fun of me for being bald or something like that.
Sure, of course, nobody's perfect.
But thousands of messages from people saying, give it a shot, vote Republican, you have to do it.
Here's why you should do it.
And then I got an overwhelming response from the left saying, too bad, crybaby.
Too bad.
And the response, when I said to them, why are you being mean to me?
They said, because you're too, how could you be so dumb to be, you know, this late in the game not understanding what's at stake here.
And I said, Because you didn't tell me what's at stake here.
You didn't.
And it's not just me.
I don't want to go on a big rant again about why I'm so frustrated with these people.
But it's not just me.
Bridget Patassi tweeted the other day, I've had a lot of people come at me in the past two years, but no one has been meaner and talked down to me more than blue-checked liberal men, and I won't effing forget it.
Bridget says she's an independent.
I'm not entirely sure what her politics are, but that tweet resonated with me.
Because my, when I tweeted, The modern left is pushing me away.
Who should I vote for if the Republicans don't hold my values?
What happened?
Blue checkmark liberal guys started condescending.
They were insulting me.
They were deriding me.
They were making fun of me.
And that's how it went on.
And I said, this is how you convince people.
This is how you expect to convince someone that your side is the right side to vote for.
Meanwhile, I'm getting thousands of responses from conservatives offering up actual positions, arguing against my liberal positions, but overwhelmingly just trying everything in their power to convince me.
What's going to convince me?
Calmed reason debate?
Or you insulting me?
Is that what you think is going to work?
When I see the poll changes, I feel like it's partly because of these cultural issues.
Sure, Brett Kavanaugh, big cultural issue.
That made Republicans want to vote more than ever because of what they saw with due process.
But then I think about incivility.
I think about what Maxine Waters said.
I think about After Charlottesville and the extreme violence that we saw, you still have Democrats calling for incivility, and that blows my mind.
Is Trump off the hook for saying very fine people?
No, of course not!
But what blows my mind is that when I ask people, why should I vote for you, they say, Republican bad.
I'm like, listen, telling me the Republicans are bad is no reason for me to vote for the Democrats.
I was in an Uber on my way back, on my way to the airport in Los Angeles.
And there was a nice old man who was driving me.
We started talking about politics.
He said he loved Bernie.
I said, yeah, I was a Bernie guy too.
I started mentioning how, you know, the polls are suggesting the Democrats are going to take the house.
And when I did this, he starts shaking his head while he's driving.
And I said, wait, wait, wait.
Before you say anything, I don't think they're going to do it.
I think it's going to be a sweep by the Republicans."
And he said, yes, absolutely.
And this guy was a Bernie supporter.
This guy was a lefty who's progressive.
He was an older guy and he said, the Democrats aren't offering us anything.
They're not telling us anything.
There's no counter to what the Republicans are doing.
They never do it.
And I said, that's exactly how I feel.
I feel like we've got all of this stuff in the air, politically.
Violence and civility, immigration.
And the Republicans keep making points about jobs, not mobs.
They say the immigration, the caravans, border security.
They're actually saying things.
Where are the Democrats?
I don't see it.
I don't.
And I'm in a state where Bob Menendez, running for the Democratic platform, is actually in a tight race with Bob Hugin.
You'd think there'd be a lot more going on.
You'd think they'd be trying as hard as they can to reach out to people like me, but I just don't see it.
And then I see Vox criticizing Democrats.
I see NBC News saying, look, the Republicans are outpacing them.
The Hill reports that enthusiasm is down, the blue wave might not happen.
And I say, yep.
Why should I believe that they're doing anything right?
Look, I don't want to make this video just another 40 minute rant about what's going on, but suffice it to say, it looks like now based on data, based on the sentiment of Democrats and Bernie Sanders, as well as the early voting results, there might not be a blue wave.
It may have just been talk.
Maybe it's not going to work.
But you know what?
My predictions are worthless.
We really don't know what's going to happen, so I guess we'll find out in a couple weeks.
It's going to be really interesting.
Absolutely.
So, let me know what you think in the comments below.
Why do you think the blue wave is crashing?
Do you think there ever was a blue wave, or was it just rhetoric?
Was it an attempt to convince people to, you know, that there was going to be some big push they had to go out for?
Or was it a rallying cry?
Comment below.
We'll keep the conversation going.
You can follow me on Twitter at TimCast.
Stay tuned.
New videos every day at 4 p.m.
And I got more videos coming up on my second channel, youtube.com slash TimCastNews, at 6 p.m.
