There are many factors playing in Donald Trump's favor right now. Democrats are fighting themselves and have no strong candidates, the economy is booming, and millennials are leaving the Democratic party. On top of this many high profile personalities on the left and the right are predicting a 2020 victory for Trump. So are they right? Will Trump win in 2020 or is he being set up for a big fall in the next two years? Support the show (http://timcast.com/donate)
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economy is growing at its fastest rate in four years, with a growth rate of 4.1%.
Donald Trump's favorability rating today is higher than when it was when he was actually elected.
And the Democratic Party seems to be divided between the center and the far left.
There's been a lot of bad press about Trump, scandals, Russiagate, etc.
But the economy is still booming.
And now we have several high-profile figures on the left and the right making the claim that Donald Trump will win again in 2020.
So what exactly is the reason that they think he's going to win?
Is there any evidence to suggest it's true?
And does this mean Donald Trump is actually on track for a re-election in 2020?
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Now, as I just mentioned, there are a few factors that spell a possible Donald Trump victory.
But first, let's start with the breaking news from today.
U.S.
growth hits 4.1%, fastest since 2014, in a win for Trump.
Trump seized the chance to declare his policies, including the biggest tax overhaul since the Reagan era, a success, calling the data amazing and very sustainable.
The likelihood is, nevertheless, that the pace of expansion will slow as the effects of tax cuts fades.
Companies pull back in the face of foreign tariffs or strong dollar, and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates further.
Trump, speaking Friday at the White House, celebrated the report and said the economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3%.
As the trade deals come in one by one, we're going to go a lot higher than these numbers and these are great numbers, the president said.
Economists forecast for the second quarter GDP, the value of all goods and services produced in the nation ranged from 3% to 5%.
The GDP estimate is the first of three for the quarter, with the other releases scheduled for August and September, when more information becomes available.
So the economy is doing well.
And that's a good thing for the president, and it's going to play well for his supporters, and it's going to play well for moderates.
But what about some other things that might indicate Trump is on track to win in 2020?
This poll from April, from Reuters.
Democrats are losing ground with millennials.
Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into critical midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters-Ipsos National Opinion poll.
Millennial support for Democratic congressional candidates has declined over the past two years, especially among young white people who made up a majority of the millennial vote in 2016.
If the election for U.S.
Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S.
Congress in your district where you live?
And what's interesting is that among all 18 to 34 year olds, in 2016 it was greater than 50% at 55,
but as of 2018 when this poll was taken it was 46%. The Democrats lost a large percentage,
around nine points, but the Republicans only gained about two points.
So the Democrats aren't moving over to the Republican Party necessarily, though young white people are.
It would seem that young Democrats may actually be going for Democratic Socialists or other left-wing candidates.
And this is another factor that can spell trouble for the Democrats in 2020, as well as in the upcoming midterm.
It doesn't have to be good things that Donald Trump is doing.
It can also be bad things that Democrats are doing.
This story from the New York Post, Lieberman knocks Ocasio-Cortez as too far left for Democrats.
Joe Lieberman is knocking progressive superstar Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a hardcore leftist whose election to Congress would damage the Democratic Party.
And he's urging Rep.
Joe Crowley to jump back into the race.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's surprise primary victory over Rep.
Joe Crowley seems likely to hurt Congress, America, and the Democratic Party.
It doesn't have to, the former Connecticut lawmaker, who remains influential among party members, wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
Because the policies Ms.
Ocasio-Cortez advocates are so far from the mainstream, her election in November would make it harder for Congress to stop fighting and start fixing the problems, he continued, calling for New Yorkers to vote for Crowley.
Fortunately, Joe Crowley and the voters in this district can prevent this damage.
On election day, his name will be on the ballot as the endorsed candidate of the Working Families Party,"
Lieberman wrote.
For Mr. Crowley to have a chance at getting reelected, he will have to decide if he wants to remain
an active candidate.
I hope he does, Lieberman said, before branding the woman who upset him
in a shocking primary as hardcore socialist with extreme leftist views who would bankrupt this country.
When we look at the Reuters poll and we can see the Democrats are losing support,
it would seem that the votes they need are being split.
And one of the arguments I've made is that Donald Trump won because he won in the right places.
He did not get the popular vote.
That means there are people in the middle of this country, in certain states, who are moderate and decided to vote for a Republican over a Democrat.
So my question then is, if these people are voting Republican, and they consider that a viable option, how would going further left move these people to the Democratic side?
I'd imagine that if you wanted to get them to move over to vote Democrat, you'd have to be more moderate.
But as we see more candidates moving to the far left, and the Democratic Socialists calling for abolishing borders, abolishing profit, and abolishing prison, it's likely that this rhetoric will be used against the Democrats, especially with the victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
And Donald Trump was able to win the presidency when his approval rating was around 37.5% and bouncing up and down a little bit around there.
Today, Donald Trump's approval rating is higher at 41.9%.
Now, none of this is definitive.
It's just a few interesting ideas that I think will contribute to the possibility Donald Trump could win.
But he very well may lose.
We don't know what's going to happen in the next coming years.
But you know what?
Don't take my word for it.
There have been several stories coming out over the past couple months talking about how Trump is going to win in 2020.
First, from the Washington Examiner, Trump is going to win in 2020 because the media can't The opinion piece by Beckett Adams starts by saying President Trump is going to win re-election in 2020.
I won't be so bold as to predict the exact scenario that will take him over the finish line, but I will say this.
The national press will again be a key factor in his victory.
Trump dominated the 2016 election with more than $5 billion in free media, and that was even before he had proven to be a financial blessing for the news industry.
The 2020 earned media numbers are going to dwarf current records because there's no way the press surrenders its current lucrative model of wall-to-wall Trump coverage to make equal time for his inevitably far less exciting opponent.
National newsrooms are not going to pay the same attention to someone as tightly scripted as, say, Senator Elizabeth Warren.
The same networks that gave 30-plus minutes of uninterrupted coverage to Trump's podium are not going to break away from one of his campaign rallies to cover even Senator Bernie Sanders' latest initiative to reel in corporate greed.
He ends by saying the president is one of the wildest, most exciting things ever to happen to this industry.
And if you think there's a chance national media will dial back its 24-hour Trump coverage in 2020, willingly pass up the financial benefits that come with covering the circus, then you don't know media.
And that's a really good point.
This is called the Trump bump.
News organizations are doing wall-to-wall coverage of Donald Trump as much as they can, because people are obsessed.
People on the left are so angry they can't stop reading, and people on the right are so happy they can't stop reading.
But there's a little bit of both, because this negative press also gets Trump supporters hate reading these articles too, hate watching these news segments.
These companies don't want to give that up, and I believe it is likely that come 2020 or even the midterms, they're going to focus so much on Donald Trump, people aren't even going to know there's someone else running in the presidential election.
Back in 2017, just about a year ago, Michael Bloomberg gave this interview to CNN.
unidentified
I think recently you gave the chance that Donald Trump would be, that President Trump would be re-elected 55%.
Yeah, sure, because, well, the incumbent always has an advantage.
It depends what the world is like in three and a half years.
If the economy is good, he had roughly 50% of the public vote, a little less, but in
the right place, so he got elected because of the Electoral College.
But he had left roughly half the people wanted him to be president.
And if it turns out that he's okay, some of the half that voted against him because they
thought he'd be a disaster probably wouldn't think that anymore, so that would help him.
Incumbents always have an advantage.
And the Democratic Party is going to be torn apart by the left and the centralists.
What I find interesting about Bloomberg's statement is that a year ago he predicted
the Democratic Party is going to be pulled apart by the center and the far left, and
we're seeing that.
We're seeing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win.
We're seeing her upset long-standing Joe Crowley, and then we're seeing former Democrats actually come out and urge people not to go far left because it won't work for the mainstream.
Just over a month ago, even Mitt Romney predicted Donald Trump will win in 2020 solidly.
Is he right, they asked.
Romney said that he thought President Trump will be re-nominated by the party easily, and he thinks he'll be re-elected solidly.
I think that not just because of the strong economy and because people are increasingly seeing rising wages, but I think it's also true because I think our Democrat friends are likely to nominate someone who is really out of the mainstream of American thought and will make it easier for a president who is presiding over a growing economy.
So Bloomberg thinks Trump's going to win, and Mitt Romney does.
But what about people on the left?
Yes, even people on the left think Donald Trump is going to win as well.
Just about a month ago, we saw this story.
Michael Moore and Bill Maher warn Trump will win the 2020 election.
Michael Moore gave a warning to non-Trump supporters on Realtime Friday night.
You have to listen this time, he pleaded to the cameras, because he is going to win the 2020 election.
And this story, also from just about a month ago, Al Sharpton.
Trump on course to win in 2020 because Dems are too tame to deal with him.
There are a lot of factors right now that are playing up to Trump's benefit.
All of the negative press around Trump is still press, and as the saying goes, there's no such thing as bad press.
They can come out all day and night and accuse Trump of engaging in scandals.
But I assure you there are going to be people who hate the media, who feel that the mainstream news are lying, and this is going to cause them to push to the right regardless.
I don't think that coming out with any factual news about the president is going to guarantee you one side will either like him or dislike him.
And as I've mentioned in a couple videos now, Slate ran this story.
In other words, Mitt Romney and John McCain got more support from internet users than Trump did.
And if that's true, it would seem like most of the people who are voting for Trump are just watching Fox News anyway.
So if that's where they're getting their information from, bad press isn't going to be a large factor against Donald Trump.
The economy is working.
People are seeing it.
His favorability is up.
The Democrats are fighting among themselves.
As of today, personally, I do think Trump is on track for 2020.
But let me know what you think in the comments below and we'll keep the conversation going because, look, we're still a long ways off.
We're about two years away, and there's a lot that could change.
So just because things look this way now doesn't mean that he could actually win.
And, again, to those of you on the left, don't take this as support.
You should listen to what these high-profile figures are saying as a warning.
That Bill Maher and Michael Moore are coming out to say he's going to win, not because they want to support the president, but because they're concerned that if people don't solve these problems, they don't address the infighting, they don't address core issues that voters care about, Donald Trump will actually win again.
And if that's something you don't like, you need to pay attention to these stories and not hide from them and complain that just because people are reporting them, they are somehow supporting the president.
But again, comment below.
We'll keep the conversation going.
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